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Monday, October 24, 2011

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At least one, and maybe both, will be back next year. My $'s on Lidge.

Both these moves were no-brainers and I don't really want either back next year. In Lidge's case, I REALLY don't want him back. That's a cycle of addiction that needs to be broken.

I wonder if Oswalt could be had for the same money Carpenter just got.

I can't imagine Lidge is back unless its for VERY cheap. I also imagine that Rube will spend the money he saved from Oswalt elsewhere, unless Oswalt is willing to take a HUGE pay cut in exchange for one last shot at a ring. But I think he'll take that last shot with a different contender willing to spend more for his services. Neither move is too surprising I guess.

Overall, I must say that I was rather unimpressed by Oswalt's tenure here.

I wouldn't mind seeing Lidge back on a very cheap deal. Also wouldn't be surprised to see Oswalt end up with the Yankees...they are going to e desperate for SPs.

Neither move is surprising in the least. Let the makeover begin!

While I wasn't exactly pleased with 2011, I'd use "impressed" to describe 2010.

Please let this be the end of Lidge's playing days in Philly; please, please, PLEASE let this be the end of Lidge's playing days in Philly ...

The back half of last season, after we first acquired Oswalt, he was pretty magical and lived up to the billing. Absolute stud.

This year, however, sadly will be more remembered for his leave-of-absence than any especially memorable pitching performance.

It should be recalled that Oswalt was fantastic for us in 2010 and was a key reason why we overcame a large deficit against the Braves. If we're scoring at home, it was a very good trade for the Phillies, regardless of what happened in 2011. But declining a $16M option on a guy who was barely a league average pitcher last year was as easy a decision as declining the option on Lidge. The only thing surprising about this move is that there were actually posters who thought we should exercise the option.

Considering Oswalt was already obviously old & breaking down when the Phils acquired him, I'd say his 1.5 yr. averages are impressive enough. Sub 3.00 ERA, sub 1.200 WHIP & 2.2 BB/9 - 6.7 K/9 - 3.07 K/BB (as opposed to his Houston career average of 2.1 B/9 - 7.4 K/9, 3.57 K/BB). I still feel it was worthwhile to take a chance & add him into the mix for those 2 Postseason runs, abortive as they were. Mostly I feel bad that he'll be leaving w/out a ring. I'll feel even worse when Halladay & Lee wind up doing the same.

Ha ha Dave, well put. We'll likely add them to the list of great Philly athletes who never got a ring here.

I see Oswalt signing with the Cardinals.

I see Oswalt signing with the Braves. Do they offer him arbitration and take the gamble he doesn't accept? I think I saw he's a Type A.

I still see the videos of Lidge and Jamie with mullets and spandex playing flying V guitars lip-syncing with lyrics "I can't throw 85......"

BB, I was thinking the same thing, re the Braves...

Hope we're wrong, because he'd be destined to fall into the Philly-killer category.

Bed Beard: I didn't think you could then offer arb to a player whose option you decline?

Ok enough with flyers crap. Last I checked this is a baseball site. Not hockey.

For Sale, cheap:

Doubt we'll see him come back, but he still wants to play...
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/jim-thome-intends-to-play-in-2012-.html

JW - glad to see you're still keeping up. And posting again. I guess we all mourn in our own way.

Is Randy Miller paid by the Tweet?

Do we know if the Phils elected to pick up the option on Utley's lawn chair?

I know many of us are still clamoring under rocks, licking our wounds, and trying to figure out how to come back to BL with a little egg on our faces, but are we sure that whoever kidnapped Sophist, didn't came back and claim Fatalotti?

I mean, do we need to be concerned about losing a prominent poster after each disappointing end of the season? If so, we should develop a plan to hide GTown Dave and BAP for next year.

I know it's EXTREMELY unlikely to ever happen, but it would be interesting to see the WS game give MNF a run for its money in the ratings. I do think that a Yanks/Phils 2-2 series could topple this crappy game pretty handily.

If you aren't impressed with Oswalt's time as a Phillie, you didn't watch 2010. He was great and the team needed him badly. This year he was hurt and never got it fully together. No regrets. A 100% necessary move at the time and it worked out well enough.

Lidge & Oswalt were too expensive to keep under the terms of their options.

Oswalt was terrific in '10. Lidge was terrific in '08. Both seemed like stand-up men, and I'm sorry to lose them for that reason, although I could not have justified exercising their options. Like GTown, I regret that Oswalt has to leave without a ring.

I could see either of them being Phillies-killers next year. I wouldn't be opposed to keeping them at lesser salaries, although I doubt that will happen, at least not with Oswalt. (I also would not be surprised to see a rival of ours give Jamie Moyer a try. I have a feeling he'd be pretty successful against our lineup.)

Having said that I wouldn't be opposed to seeing either Lidge or Oswalt return...I think I said the same about JC, and ended up feeling it was a bad idea to resign him.

I agree that Oswalt's performance this year was tainted by injury issues. The same for Lidge every year since '08. Which actually makes it a bad idea to sign him for very much money at all. Would they take $10mill. paycuts?

David Murphy starting a World Series game absolutely sickens me.

My man! David Murphy comes up big!

WP - many posters seem to have dissappeared. Fatolotti's absence is peculiar.

So, it appears we've reached the point in the offseason when some posters begin pining for other posters who are currently not posting.

God help us all...

i vaguely remember the phils agreeing to increase the buyout to $3 million in order to complete the oswalt trade... yet i'm seeing it reported as $2 million everywhere. anyone know anything about this?

So Mitch Moreland hikers off Carpenter. I now logically assume he is better than anyone in the Phils lineup. I will continue to believe this until my fantasy draft snaps me back to reality.

homers.

More importantly, where the hell is They Call Me The King Of The Bop?

The '93 season was so draining I hardly watched baseball at all in '94 -- which ended up being a net positive, given the eventual strike. Point being, perhaps Fatalotti simply needed a break. It's not like there's a whole lot to discuss right now, anyway.

Oswalt will be gone. We won't want him back to save money. Other teams will want to take take a chance on him being their team Ace.

Lidge could be back if he takes a drastic pay-cut. Philly has fallen in love with their ex-closers. Don't think other teams will be hot to sign him.

Lidge is not worth the heart palpitations. Oswalt is still a good pitcher 3.69 is a very good modern stat--especially on an off year.

I asked this on an old thread, unaware that a new thread had been started. The idea of the Phils signing Jose Reyes.

Seems to me a lot of big market teams will not be in on the bidding for Reyes. Can't see the Yankees with Jeter at SS go after him. Can't see the Red Sox with the Crawford contract go after him. Nor can I see the Dodgers with their financial mess.

The Mets and their financial mess can only go so high with their offer.

I could see the Angels go big after him. And the Miami Marlins, trying to make a big splash with their new stadium and trying to appeal to the local Latino culture could go after him, maybe moving Hanley to 3B.

The Cubs have Castro at SS so they're out. The Nats are a wild card after the Werth contract, anything's possible for them.

Maybe the Phils sneak in, especially without Oswalt's contract on the books and get Reyes for a price that just isn't as high as many would think.

I am sick with jealousy.

DHPhils - If it makes you feel any better -

hib to the jib

someone should put Mike Scoscia on suicide watch. Napoli is ridiculous.

Oswalt has had a better career than Chris Carpenter, the guy who pitched the Phillies out of the playoffs and who has pitched well in the WS.

The Cards signed Carpenter to a two-year, $21 million extension, despite the fact that Carpenter missed two years in a row twice in his career so far due to injury.

If Oswalt's back condition can be cared for sufficiently to enable him to throw 200 innings again, Oswalt may still be a better pitcher than Carpenter. Oswalt is two years younger than Carpenter with nowhere near Carpenter's injury history.

If the Phils believe that Oswalt is healthy enough, I'd bring him back on a deal similar to Carpenter's, but with bonuses built in based on innings pitched.

I don't see Oswalt signing with the Cards unless they lose Pujols. If the Cards did sign Oswalt, though, the threesome of Wainwright, Oswalt and Carpenter could hold its own against Halladay, Lee and Hamels. I prefer that the Phils not dilute their dominant rotation by letting Oswalt sign elsewhere.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees check in on Oswalt.

So the Rangers only have to win 1 of the next 2 games to take the series. Of course the Phillies were in that position, too, & they found a way to blow it.

I find that after every game, I feel the team that just won will be the WS winner.

I do think the Cards will be helped by going back home. It will be Garcia pitching, right? I'm just hoping for 7 games. Since I don't have a rooting interest and am not nervous.

* * *
About Oswalt, I'd love to have him back, but I think another team will snatch him up for more than we'll be willing to pay him. Plus we have Blanton, so I think our interest in him diminishes. Even though Oswalt's a better pitcher, we're stuck with Blanton. Of course, if he ends up needing surgery, we might wish we did still have Roy O. I suppose a lot depends on what happens with KK.

Given that Oswalt was due to receive $16 million next year, I don't see how the Phils can sign him to a 2 year $21 million Chris Carpenter-like contract.

I'm impressed by the Rangers in this series, in coming back after being down, several times in this WS. I kind of thought they might lie down after being blown out in game 3.

The Phils, Cholly, RAJ can learn a thing or 2 from the Rangers.

For one, the Phils should have made sure the Cards couldn't hear the bullpen phone like the Rangers did. For two, the Phils should work on their infield singles that hit the pitcher.

Yeah, I'm not sure what they could learn from the Rangers. Game 2 was won on a pop up into no-man's land by Kinsler and a cut-off throw that grazed Pujols' glove. Game 5 was decided by a dead double play ball that bounced off the pitcher. What's the lesson: be lucky?

When the Phils win, it's luck, when they lose it's on merit. Always has been, always will be.

Yanks will definitely bite on Oswalt. Don't understand why the Phils won't. He is not and was not my favorite but he is clearly a very good pitcher and it would be a mistake to let him go.

I would keep Oswalt and trade Worley for a good up and coming infielder(SS, 3rd, 2nd or C). Howard will stay regardless of output.

The way I see, sign both, it costs $28.5 million. Let both walk, it costs $3.5 million. The net effect is that the Phillies just made/saved $25 million that can be better spent in other areas.

Isn't $25 million Ryan Howard's average annual salary for the next five years? Coincidence? Hmmmm!

Can anyone here see Charlie throwing his bullpen coach under the bus like that?

The Phils bullpen would know something was up if Charlie didn't ask for guys in his usual pattern.

LaRussa's so clever that the Cards pen could get a call saying get the guy up who's supposedly not going to pitch except in an emergency and they think, there he goes again.

Tsep-chin-ski needs to practice his backhand glovework when he's not warming up.

I am sorry if this sound ignorant or picking a fight with most of you guys but what the heck did you all see out of Lidge and Oswalt this year to want either back?
Obviously the tractor business taints Oswalt in my eyes but still he didn't seem anywhere near as crisp or in control in the majority of his appearances this year.
As for Lidge, the guy was out the majority of the season and when he came back he only had 3 or 4 innings of semi-good stuff. He too seemed to struggle and have control issues.
If both were already under team control for way less money (like near minimum), sure I can see running them both out there next year but to resign them and hope for the best, no way.
Lidge is cooked and Oswalt is not your daddy's Roy Oswalt.

grandpa: I'll make sure to refer you back to your thoughts on Oswalt when Joe Blanton has a 8 ERA after April.

Lidge had a 1.40 ERA and 24k in 19ip.

of course, he also had a 1.50 whip inlcuding 13 BB in those innings.

if he wants to come back bad enough at a $1-2M deal, that works for me.

Elephant in the room- Who is our shortstop next season if you had to take a guess right now?

Scutaro.

If the choice is only having Blanton or having both Blanton and Oswalt and there's no consideration of budget, then it'd be right to say we should keep Oswalt in case Blanton has an ERA of 8.

So Oswalt for the league minimum? OK, I'm sold!

Once the series is over, and all the fun begins. Hopefully we can get an update on howard so then we know if the phils need to get a first base/pinch hitter. Glad Lil Roy and lights out are gone. Lots of holes to patch up in areas. I see a full time third basemen. And lefty in pen. Closer. And revamp bench, and SS if Jroll roles out of town

I'm not buying this bullpen phone doesn't work nonsense. La Russa tried that late in the season in Philadelphia. He complained that the phone didn't work and had the Phillies' phone turned off. Phone magically break when the Cards are in town?

One for Scutaro.

Ryan is currently working on the building plan revisions for the Palazzo de Howard. The pool and aqueduct will be constructed first so that Ryan can begin his aquatic therapy while keeping a close eye on the surrounding palatial construction. As this is a three year project the Phillies should make a play for Pujols.

Exercising the options on Lidge and Oswalt is a vital step towards the "getting young" thing. Remember, our 3rd baseman has had a fairly serious elbow injury, and is scuffling with hernia and back issues; our 2nd baseman suffers from patellar tendinitis and chondromalacia; and our 1st baseman is laid up by a very serious injury he may never fully recover from (I can't believe I just wrote that!).

It still feels as if the Phillies “karma keg” just kicked when Ryan Howard went down in an agonizing heap. On the Phillies last PA of 2011. Heck, even with a few “rabbit out of the hat” signings by RAJ, we may need John Mayberry Jr. to have another “career” season just to get to 90 wins in 2012. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.

I wouldn't want Osawlt at $16M, but i was dont agree with grandpa that Oswalt isn't worth trying to re-sign.

Count my vote for Rollins.

Even on BL, I doubt there was even a single poster who thought the Phils would exercise either option.

I agree with the posters who say the Yanks will go hard after Oswalt. I'll be shocked if he returns. I can't see off-season demand being high for Lidge, however, and he may be back.

Frankly, I think it would be easier to replace Madson without damaging the team than it would be to replace Rollins.

I still don't understand why people bash Oswalt for helping the tornado victims in his home town. That's either completely unfounded on their part or completely heartless.

1 for Scutaro
1 for Rollins

I would be really surprised if Oswalt signs in the AL. He has made pretty clear that he only wants to pitch in the NL including at the trade deadline last year.

The question is what team is going to be willing to give him a multi-year deal at $10M+ given his variety of ailments including his back. Some team will likely make that ill-advised move.

Phils need a few veterans relievers to round out their pen. Biggest doubt about bringing Lidge back is his health but he has proven he can be an effective reliever the last 2 seasons throwing only his slider (with 3 variations). It's that good of a pitch.

It is just the question of the right kind of deal (1-year deal with a ~$2M base with incentive upside). Imagine other teams though will look at Lidge and try to sign him to a similiar deal. Really surprised if he gets a multi-year deal or another shot to close with somebody. Still can be an effective MLB reliever though.

It wouldn't hurt the Phils 'to get younger' but some of things I have seen advocating for the Phils to just largely rely upon internal options to largely fill there bullpen makes no sense unless the likes of De Fratus, Schwimer, Stutes, and Savery really are competent MLB relievers. My bet is you are lucky if 1 of those 4 is a major contributor next year at the MLB level for the Phils.

Rebburb - "I still don't understand why people bash Oswalt for helping the tornado victims in his home town. That's either completely unfounded on their part or completely heartless."

It was foolish though that he went home & cleared debris/brush despite being on the DL for a bad back. It was reported that Amaro was really pissed when he found that Oswalt did that & supposedly without prior clearance from the Phils' medical staff.

What the Phillies do with Oswalt depends largely on what you think of Vance Worley... http://jstolnis.wordpress.com/2011/10/25/do-the-phillies-need-roy-oswalt/

***It was foolish though that he went home & cleared debris/brush despite being on the DL for a bad back. It was reported that Amaro was really pissed when he found that Oswalt did that & supposedly without prior clearance from the Phils' medical staff. ***

You'd think someone with an 8 figure salary and a bad back could probably hire someone to do that sort of thing for him.

yeah, I think the Oswalt/Torando issue was that he was operating heavy machinary while injured with a bad back. I can understand MGMT (and even some fans)being upset about it, but I bet it's a little overblown.

If the Phillies wanted him back and were ok paying the $16 mil, would that be automatic, or does Roy have to agree to that?

That Roy Oswalt is a selfish bastard. Good riddance.

I dont know...if I am paid to do a job and cannot due to an injury...a job that I am paid quite well to do, I could totally understand my manager being pissed at me if I then went out and did something at home that aggravated that condition and kept me out longer.

Its no different than guys on workman's comp suddenly going to compete in a triathalon...I actually had a guy do that at my last job and we ended up firing him and denying his WC as a result.

On the flip side, I totally understand where ViceRoy is coming from and family comes first...but expect to pay the price when you're done. Basically...buy what you want, AND PAY FOR IT.

***If the Phillies wanted him back and were ok paying the $16 mil, would that be automatic, or does Roy have to agree to that? ***

It was a joint option so both sides would have had to agree. It was originally a club option that was modified to a joint option when he was traded.

I approach the Roy/Tornado thing as I have no idea how long/how much he was actually doing down there.

One vote for Furcal.

The only way I could see them exercising the option for Oswalt is if they had agreed to immediately modify it into somthing like 3 years and $30M. I am not sure I would want Oswalt under that contract, but I can see it is a risk worth taking.

with kendrick worley and blanton all around, you don't need to resign oswalt. I'm not saying that either of those guys is as good or better than oswalt, i'm just saying that the phils obviously have other needs for the kind of money oswalt is going to command. Someone's going to him at least 10mm, let's be honest.

I'd like to see Roy O. back. he's probably a safer bet than Blanton, and I'm not a big KK fan. Don't think Lidge will be back. Unless he gets a few MPH back on his fastball, to me it's not worth the risk.

A question to throw out there: If the Phillies believe Oswalt will be a hot commodity in free agency, should they then offer him arbitration? Losing him and getting nothing in return would be a missed opportunity. But there is always the danger he'll accept arb and get a higher salary than they're willing to pay.

Clout, you're always asking everyone else what they would do. How about your opinion here. Do you offer Roy Oswalt arbitration or not?

My vote's for Rollins as the most likely SS. Also my preference assuming reasonable length (3 yrs).

I would not want Reyes at any price, literally. The other options are uninspiring but unobjectionable if Rollins follows more years/money elsewhere. I need to see another full year of Galvis showing some offense before I buy into him as the future.

On Oswalt/Lidge I think you take a chance on both if they'll come back on short deals and reduced money (8-10 for Oswalt, 2-3 for Lidge). I think that's unlikely to happen with Oswalt, more likely with Lidge.

AK~ See my earlier post re: Blanton. I'd offer arb to Roy. If he accepts, it doesn't mean he'll actually go to arb. They could negotiate a deal. I had an intriguing thought this morning. I'm wondering if CC opts out, would the Phils may make a run at him, possibly maybe as a hedge against Hamels leaving year after next?

Oswalt gets 5-6 and Lidge gets a minor league invite with an early release if he doesn't make the team.

Sanity needs to prevail at some point. Give Oswalt some incentives to make the deal better, but at this age and his injury history, giving him even a Blanton type deal is a major risk that could hamstring your budget pretty easily.

Qustion: Do the buyout for either player become null and void if they both re-sign here? Or must they be paid anyway?

DPatrone - CC is a star pitcher and a real innings eating horse. But going forward, I don't seem him being any better than Hamels. Hamels, even with his injuries here and there, has been very durable and has been a big time pitcher in big situations.

And it's likely he'll be signed for a lot less than the 28-30 million per year CC is going to ask for and likely get from the Yankees.

Gotta offer Hamels a mildly backloaded contract for five years and about 80 million and let CC soak up the Yankee dollars again.

Furcal, give me a true lead off hitter. Sign maddawg or pappelbon. And if u can Mayberry in left or first and either Beltran or cuddy would fit perfect. And if u want a power spot on third sign mr cub. Line up vast improvement.

andersog - you must really dislike Reyes. wouldn't a .300 hitting, lighting fast ss who would step right in as our leadoff hitter for the next 5+ years be just what the doctor ordered?

i mean seriously, signing Reyes is really the only move that would help remake this Phillies offense. i'd love to go cheap there and trade for a great young 3B, but there is no one out there. there are only a handful of true upgrades at 3B and none are available. the rest are either old or bad.

plus we need to start inking everyday players sooner rather than later, with only Howard on the books past 2013.

i voted for Scutaro, but i think that Reyes is THE move to make.

AK: 5-6 what to Oswalt? He's in the catbird seat right now (actually when free agency begins). He can go wherever he wants, and all the big $ teams could/should be looking at him. He's rumored to have wanted to stay in the NL, but don't sleep on TEX wanting him if (or even if not) they lose CJ Wilson.

Oswalt's a gamble this offseason, but what he needs most is some time off. He's getting it now. He'll get two years, but will someone offer 3?

Thanks AK. So you think CC stays in NY? Given the age on that team, I think maybe not. I don't think he's got a great chance to win there any longer. But that's not to infer he'd be coming to Philly. We have lots of age too. I agree with you on Hamels. But since he's under control for next next year, I'd like to see the 1b,LF, and SS positions taken care of first, and as quickley as possible. Then you could give Hamels the long-term deal (back-loaded or not) that he deserves.

I think Madson's as good as gone, and my guess is that Joe Nathan will be the guy as he'd probably come cheap, as he's 37 and recovering from injury. He didn't pitch much last year but he could still have a good year left in him.

I could be wrong but I thought that if a player has a buyout, they can't be offered arbitration.

Hamels will be 28 later this year. That means that he is in line for two long-term contracts.

It is probably in Hamels' own best interests to sign a four- or five-year deal now and to sign a five- or six-year deal when he is 32 or 33. He could be set for life with the first deal. On top of that, the second deal might make him the highest-paid pitcher in baseball. If he remains healthy, Hamels will retire from baseball a very wealthy man.

Good for him.

conshy matt - Before you sign Reyes, consider the number "191." That's the number of games he has missed over the last three years.

derek - that's a lot of games, no doubt. no risk, no reward though, right? perhaps that # will keep his contract relatively surpressed...?

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