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Monday, September 26, 2011


Doc will finish 2nd in the CY voting, unless Lee throws a no-hitter tonight or something.

repost: "Its a shame that having a monster lead in the standings and an early clinch haven't helped Bastardo at all. Usually those circumstances give rest and stress-free time for players, but Bastardo must feel like he's pitching in Game7 of the World Series every day out there. I dont think I can remember someone having a meltdown like this under the most pressureless environment baseball can provide."

Jack: Agreed, another CGSO might move Lee to 2nd, but I doubt he goes that deep regardless unless he does so in under 100 pitches.

Can't argue Kershaw winning it - it just sucks that his Home Stats and out of division numbers aren't worthy while Doc's are.

*Away stats for Kershaw, not home.

Because of the climate and altitude of Dodger Stadium, Kershaw's year is not nearly as impressive as Kemp's.

Interesting Phils stats - unless there are substantial changes in the next three games, Halladay will have supplied 40% of the pitching staff's successful sacrifice bunts. Schneider will finish with an OPS+ lower than 3 of the Phils' pitchers. (Regardless of the next three games, one amazing stat: somebody actually, during the season, walked Schneider intentionally.) Oh, and Chase Utley, despite playing in about 100 games, will lead the team in HBP, by several. (He's ahead of Chooch 14 to 10, and the next highest is 6.)

Kershaw is deserving. I say good for him!

Ah - Hunter Pence hit 11 HRs in 432 PAs with HOU, and has 10 HRs in 221 PAs with the Phils.

Andy: Just as impressive, Pence had 30 walks in 432 PAs with Houston, and 23 walks in 221 PAs with the Phils.

wtf man - having more walks is more impressive than hitting more HR?!

such an awful statement. Yes, not making an out is a good thing - but wake up man. Doubling your HR output in half his plate appearences is insanely more important than taking more walks.

Who the hell hypnotized you?

*should have said 'just as impressive', not 'more impressive' - rest of post remains same, dont weasel out by focusing on that part of it.

Whoa, calm down. I just said it was just as impressive that he had increased his plate discipline as well as his power. Both things are good. Pence has been great.

Deep breaths, guy. Calm down.

lorecore, he probably just came out from watching Moneyball!

Heaven forbid Chooch get's hurt in playoffs. We need every offensive help we can get and Schneider provides none. I dont think they expected Schneider to be this bad. He never was an offensive force to begin with but was ok with the bat exception this year and 09. Finding a backup catcher with a a ok bat is hard to do they arent many out there. I think its a pray, cross fingers thing this year that Chooch doesnt get hurt. Kratz has shown some promise in AAA however it be nice if they can secure someone with a more proving track record. Im just glad we won a game. They may not say it but im sure their confidence was at on all time low. Now the question is if we let the Card's in playoff we might be in trouble. Like it or not they have our number with Pujols on their side any team can win.

More walks could mean he's seeing more pitches,therefore getting better ones to hit those homeruns. There are always 2 sides to every story. No need to jump all over a guy for his opinion.
Be glad he's improved since he arrived.

This 130 announcement has something to do with the Flyers playing at CBP this winter I assume. Anybody hear anything?

The conversation over Cy Young, MVP etc is for the also rans. All afternoon yesterday Mets announcers (I live in NYC) were discussing Reyes chances to win the batting title. Who cares. Especially vis-s-vis Reyes after all he is very likely up for grabs after this year.
I could care less who wins those awards. They are great for the professioanl in question but what matters is team victories and for us WFS or teh FWS (whichever).
Afterall this is why these guys play 162 games. And why we follow them and obviously whomever is on this site follows them a lot moer than teh average bear.

thats the base for about 90% of the debates here...some ppl think walks are equally as important as HR.

they are wrong right from the start.

b00b analysis:

Halladay > Lee

"some ppl think walks are equally as important as HR"

no one thinks this.

Iorecore: Ok, I amend my sentence to say "also important" instead of "just as". Does that make you happier? You have anything else to freak out about? Wow.

lorecore, you need to chill for a second.

Pence has been a 25 HR a year guy his whole career. so the fact that he hit 21 this year is not that big a deal.

But, he's been a 6% BB guy during his career, and has been about a 11% walk guy with the Phillies. Whether you think walks are less important than HRs is irrelevant. If Pence can maintain his ~25 HR a year pace WHILE maintaining the impressive 11% walk rate, that is a HUGE deal.

No need to rip Jack a new one for pointing this out. He's right on the money.

I agree that no one thinks walks are as imprtant as HRs but there are people that will make the argument on this board because they like to bicker.

A good HR hitter will hti ~40 HR in a year, but might walk ~100 times.

Why is it inarguable that the 100 walks could have been at least as important to the team's offense as the 40 HRs?

And we're off...

gobay, here's a good thought experiment for you:

Which hitter would you rather have on your team?

30 HR/year, 5% walk rate
15 HR/year, 15% walk rate

Assuming 600 PA, the latter players hits 15 less homeruns, but gets on base 60 more times via the walk.

His walk numbers are even more impressive considering what a free swinger he can be.
Looking at the seasons Werth and Crawford had, the Phils made another excellent move signing Pence.

Blanton has better boobs than either of them.

linear weight studies show a HR roughly ~4.5x better than a walk.

So ~40HR is like walking ~200times, or in Fatal's case, those 100BB are worth about half the value of those 40HR.

lorecore, uBB has a value of 0.70, whereas a HR has a value of 2.07, based on the site I checkd.

So, I guess 40 HRs would be equivalent to about 118 walks.

Strike that...134 walks.

This is just dumb. You don't multiply the linear weights of the number of walks & HR and compare them. The point is outs. Walks would normally take the place of outs. That is it.

i used tango's wiki for mine, i think it was based off of runs per game and not run epectancy of an inning.

and also there have been 32 players to hit 30HR with a walk rate of 5% or lower, while there have been 585 players to hit 15HR with a 15% bb rate or higher. Soriano is the the only player in the last 4 years to do the former.

The point is, walks have great value as do homeruns. In Pence's case, his HRs this year are right in line with his HRs in his career.

If he can maintain the elite walk rate, he'll truly be an elite player.

Raul - Speaking of Kentucky Joe, I still have no idea whether he makes the postseason roster. Imagined the strong out helped a bit but he looks like the odd man out at this point.

Before the last STL visit, Phils handled Pujols pretty well. I would get more enjoyment eliminating the Braves, and then punishing LaRussa on national TV. He's been using 40 players for the last month, he would probably run out of players by the fifth inning in the playoffs. Best bet would be a tie, he would probably use his entire rotation in the Thursday playoff.

walks, in order of their importance, IMO:

1. bases loaded, tie game, World Series
2. on the beach with a hottie you met just that night.
3. to the podium while receiving your college degree
4. Breast Cancer fundraiser
5. to the bathroom after Taco Bell
6. to the fridge between innings for a beer
7. all other walks

Fatal: no, the point is Homeruns have great value while walks have a lesser value, altho still positive.

As shocking as I thought this idea would be even a few weeks back, I suspect Joe and Kendrick both make the roster.

Iorecore: Groundbreaking stuff. Glad you freaked out about this just to make that point.

"Which hitter would you rather have on your team?

30 HR/year, 5% walk rate
15 HR/year, 15% walk rate"

Just tell me which player has the higher WAR and that's my answer.

Again, the ultimate point was just that Pence upping his walk rate is a very good sign. If someone wants to disagree with that, feel free, but you'd be wrong. How that turned into this idiotic argument, I have no idea.

jack: you'll thank me the next time Howard hits a homerun and you can't figure out why he didnt try to work a walk instead.

lorecore, thanks for that. Wasn't aware of the fact that a single walk is less valuable than a single homerun.

The idea you're completely glossing over is that pretty much every player will have more walks than HRs.

Juding them one to one is foolish.

First Jack gets beat up for suggesting the 8-game losing streak is meaningless and then for suggesting it's good that Pence is walking more.

Methinks Beerleaguer is being a bit unfair!

Speaking of WAR:

Halladay leads Kershaw in B-ref pitching WAR 7.1 to 6.9 (then Lee at 6.7, Kennedy 5.5, Hamels 5.4).

Halladay leads Kershaw in Fangraphs pitching WAR 8.2 to 6.9 (then Lee at 6.7, Cain 5.4, Baumgartner 5.3, Hamels 5.1).

Doc's FIP is 2.20 vs. Kershaw's 2.47.

Kershaw will win the Cy Young (hard not to when you win the pitching Triple Crown), but Doc is the better pitcher and was so this year.

I'm going to nominate this thread for "Dumbest BL Thread of the Year"

That's the comments section, not the initial post.

No need to make it more complicated than it is.
The rules of baseball award one base for a walk and 4 bases for a HR.

Unless you're Brett Meyers, then 1 walk = your moment in the spotlight for years to come.

it sounds foolish, but i seriously believe the Jack is more impressed with Pence's increased walk rate than his HR rate.

His underlying value on OBP vs SLG has long been the groundwork of numerous debates and I am trying to point out that its become so skewed that he legitmately 100% believe that doubling your walkrate is just as valuable as doubling your HR rate.

My point was.. wake up.. we know OBP is better than SLG, but you are so one-sided on the discussion that you seriously believe the two are of equal value in evaluating a player's performance/skill.

lorecore, I'll go over it again, and then I'm done.

Pence has always been known as a pretty good HR hitter. He hit 25 each of the last three years.

That he came to Philly a bit off his career rate in homeruns, and then regressed to his mean a bit by getting himself to 21 for the year (and counting), is no surprise.

On the other hand, Pence has never been known as being particularly adept at taking walks. He walked at a 9% clip a couple years ago, but his career rate has always been around 6%.

To me, it IS impressive that he could get his walk rate up to 10-11% as a Phillie. Yes, he technically did double his HR rate when comparing his time as a Phillie to that of an Astra, but his HR rate as an Astro this year was lower than his career rate.

His walk rate as an Astro this year was right in line with his career rate.

Also, you just made a hell of a lot of assumptions about Jack's POV, based on the phrase "just as impressive".

NEPP, you are right. I'm still perplexed by the bad slump that Bastardo is having. I don't understand it.

Halladay leads Kershaw in B-ref pitching WAR 7.1 to 6.9

I don't claim to be a WAR expert, but I think that a .2 difference falls with the margin of error by quite a bit. Kershaw makes a fine Cy Young awardee.

Edmundo: Kershaw makes a fine Cy Young candidate. And Halladay is the better pitcher and has a better seasons, in my opinion. Those two statements are not mutually exclusive.

Kershaw leads the league in Wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

He's gonna walk away with the CY this year.

Sure, you could use adjusted ERA and some other Sabrmetric stats to argue for Doc but it won't matter.

As great as it would be to have Doc or Lee win the CY, I'm 100% certain they only care about winning the World Series.

Lee could use another CY if he wants to make a better HoF case while Doc doesnt need one period.

Either way, both would much rather have a WS ring I would think.

CJ: Do you actually know how they calculate a pitcher's WAR? Unless you have an advanced degree in statistics, I suspect you do not. Hence, you're just taking it on sheer faith that the guy who computed those WAR numbers has unlocked all the secrets to measuring one pitcher's performance against another's. And maybe he has. But, considering that Kershaw has the best numbers in the league in virtually every category except WAR, I kind of doubt it.

BAP: The difference in WAR basically comes down to park factors and normalizing BABIP (for Fangraphs). Doc has done it in a hitters park, Kershaw in a pitchers park. Compare their road stats and tell me what you find.

Think it's safe to say now that Pence, after going a double short of the cycle, might recover from his knee injury in time for the playoffs? LOL. Certain posters seemed ready to bury him after the error and his various groundouts in the Mets game. Bastardo, on the other hand, remains a big worry--I would really, really like the idea of bringing Savery in the playoffs as an insurance policy, but it's hard to picture Cholly (aka Mr. Stick-With-the-Lousy-Guy-With-Experience) doing that with a rookie fresh from Triple-A. Then again, Cholly actually juggled his lineup to optimal effect last night, so maybe he'll pull a suprise. I hope he at least retains last night's lineup for the postseason.

Jack: I understand that from a conceptual standpoint. But the actual calculation is so convoluted that I have absolutely no idea how to assess whether it's accurately capturing what it's supposed to capture. So, when I cite a pitcher's WAR, I'm basically saying: "These really smart guys say that Halladay has been slightly better than Kershaw this year."

That's not really an argument, in my opinion.

To augment my 12:13 post (before I leave for court), if you think Kershaw is benefitting from playing in a pitcher's park, then point out the 2 pitchers' road numbers. That's an argument that pretty much anyone can understand. Don't point to some convoluted formula that supposedly captures the park differences, among other things, but which no one other than a math professor actually knows how to compute.

BAP: So because math is hard, we can't use numbers?

Now being one of the elite stat folks on this here board, I am wondering if anybody felt the need to go see Moneyball and enjoyed it. I have been a fantasy dude for years and a baseball die-hard in general but the reviews (which I seldom listen to anyway) all seem to be written by non-ball fans or those on the sports sites seem to be from the point of view of media types who know the real Beane. I have not read the book, I read for a living and simply can't work it in at this point.
I have some issues with Pitt as Beane and Jonah Hill trying to act serious-ish and Phillip Hoffman just looks absurd as a manger.

I definitely think Kershaw benefits from factors such as park and weak offensive division - but in the end - Kershaw went out to whatever mound/offense he was given over the entire season and put up the best #s in the league.

If you used advanced measures to equalize the two pitchers, I think Doc would come out on top, but it prolly wouldn't be anywhere close enough to convincingly decide he was the better pitcher.

What are Lee's chances of CY if he throws a CG perfecto tonight?

I know he will be on a pitch count and it wont happen. just a hypothetical question....
what if....?

Kind of mind boggling that with the year he's had, Halladay has been on "the fringe of the conversation" and that six "dominant shutout innings" are a "quiet ending". I don't disagree with the assessment. However, maybe it's a measure of greatness or HoF quality when fans and writers can take for granted a season which is of Cy Young caliber.

Other than tossing a perfect game and a playoff no hitter again (light sarcasm), I'm truly not sure what more one could conceivably ask the guy to do.

And none of this is meant to take away from the superb seasons Lee, Hamels, Worley and Madson are having.

Roy Halladay road stats:
10-3, 2.35 ERA
Clayton Kershaw road starts:
9-4, 2.87 ERA

Starts in NY, SD, SF:
Halladay: 1
Kershaw: 6

Oh... and starts in LA:
Halladay: 1
Kershaw: 16

Has anyone ever bothered to calculate what Ryan Howards batting avg. would be if teams did not employ the over-shift?I think I've seen a minimum of 25 hits taken away by the shift.

Halladay has been a horse from the start of the season to the end. However, I don't think you can easily slot him ahead of Lee in evaluating who had the better season. If Lee goes 6 or 7 innings tonight, and doesn't give up a run, his IP and ERA will be indistinguishable from Halladay's numbers. His Ks are higher and his WHIP is lower. Those 6 shutouts would be a tie breaker for me over Halladay's CGs.

Halladay has just been absolutely superb this year.

Greatest trade in Phillies history, in my opinion, if nothing more than that it was met with extremely high expectations, and hasn't failed in the least to live up to said expectations.

Also... they may not be triple crown numbers, but Doc lead the league in:

Complete games, innings pitched (despite one fewer start than Kershaw), ERA+, BB/9 and SO/BB.

Kershaw lead the league in:
Wins, ERA, Ks, WHIP and H/9

Of course, Doc's BABIP was .298 (six points higher than career average) while Kershaw's was just .269 (ten points lower than career average). These two pitchers had a nearly identical line drive percentage and Doc had a much higher GB%. Kershaw obviously benefits from pitching in cavernous parks that can swallow his higher percentage of fly balls.

Is that better, bap?

CJ, you basically just explained why Doc leads Kershaw in xFIP, SIERA and WAR.

He's the better pitcher. Kershaw is a GREAT pitcher.

Doc is better. Plain and simple.

To augment my 12:13 post (before I leave for court), if you think Kershaw is benefitting from playing in a pitcher's park, then point out the 2 pitchers' road numbers.

The flaw with this argument is that it tosses out Kershaw's advantage totally. He's pitched better than one would expect at home -- he shouldn't be penalized for that, either. It's awfully darned close -- is a 164 ERA+ vs. 163 ERA+ significant?

It look like Kershaw will win, based on the narrative that the writers like so much, i.e., it will be easier and more compelling to write about Kershaw than Halladay.

To be clear:

Clayton Kershaw is a great pitcher. Clearly one of the best in the game. And he had a tremendous year. But I don't believe he's better than Doc and I don't believe he pitched better than Doc this year.

He did, however, have a better season by traditional measures and is a worthy recipient of the Cy Young which he will surely win.

Until Doc has something less than a typically terrific season, he's the Best Pitcher In Baseball. Doesn't mean Kershaw shouldn't win the Cy Young this year.

As for lefties out of the pen, it's probably time to give Jamie Moyer a call.

Kershaw's old style raw numbers look great. But Halladay pitches half his games in a park that simply give up more runs than cavernous Dodger Stadium.

The Bank isn't the homer heaven it used to be. But it's clearly a tougher place to pitch. I'd have to think that Halladay would have a significantly lower ERA if he pitched half his games in Dodger Stadium and got to pitch against the Giants and Padres offenses about 8 times per season.

Nobody is including the biggest stat in the Cy Young race: Halladay has a RFF (Red Face Factor) of 7.5, where Kershaw is in the low 2's.

And Iceman proves it once more: BEERLEAGUER, the place where tired jokes go to get beaten completely to death.

Halladay's got a ton of Cy Young worthy stats this year. The one I rarely see mentioned is the ten homers allowed. That is miniscule in light of the innings he's pitched this year.

There is so much talk about the Cardinals and how the Phils don't want to see them in the playoffs, so do they not play as hard against the Braves? Really, the Phillies are scared of the Cards? I know the Cards are the only NL team with a winning record against the Phils, but remember 3 of those losses were right AFTER they clinched in a rout of the Cards. Yes, Holliday is back for the Cards, yes they have been winning and do seem to have momentum while the Phils are sleepwalking. Is everybody really that scared?

Let's see ... Phils past history against really hot teams entering the playoffs ... Rox in 2007 and Giants last year, enough said?

Doc is the better pitcher, but the cy young award is about actual results. Much like all other aspects of life, pitching results are influence by circumstances beyond one's control and luck. No disrespect to Doc or Kershaw, they've both had great years, but Kershaw got slighlty better results.

GFY, Rox in 2009? They were 20-31 at one point in the season, and ended up 92-70. Were 18-12 over their last 30. Were considered to be a "hot" team coming into the playoffs.

Dodgers in 2008 were 19-8 down the stretch and swept the Cubs (the team with the best NL record) out of the first round. We'd fared pretty well there, no?

Don't let confirmation bias cloud your vision.

The 08 Dodgers weren't just hot but they were a new team after acquiring Manny. They were the scary team that year.

I don't understand the fear of the Cardinals at all, nor do I understand the opinion (spouted on here as a fact) that the Phillies "match up better" with the Cardinals.

The offense is great but the pitching is by far the worst of the contenders. I think Carpenter/Garcia are less likely to steal a game against Halladay/Lee than Gallardo/Marcum or Kennedy/Hudson. Their record indicates they're a significantly inferior team to Milwaukee and Arizona. Their bullpen is leaky from top to bottom and they've recently been taking advantage of the expanded roster, something they obviously won't be able to do in October.

They won 6 of 9 against the Phillies, but the runs scored/runs allowed is about even, 2 of those games were post-clinch, and the first 2-game series was with an injured Utley and Victorino, and pre-Pence.

I'd feel more comfortable facing St. Louis in the first round than Arizona.

Obviously the end of the first paragraph should read "match up worse"

gobay, do you remember the ridiculous numbers that Manny put up as a Dodger that year?

396/.489/.743 (1.232) with 17 HR and 53 RBI in 53 G.

Just in case you forgot that madness...

DH, people are overvaluing the small sample sizes that label Carpenter and Garcia as "Phillie-killers".

I place more value on the 2011-sized sample size that labels Kennedy and Hudson as "better-pitchers-than-Carpenter-and-Garcia".

"I place more value on the 2011-sized sample size that labels Kennedy and Hudson as "better-pitchers-than-Carpenter-and-Garcia"."

Que? Carpenter and Garcia have better FIP/SIERA numbers than Hudson and both match up pretty well with Kennedy.

You can argue that the DBacks are a tougher matchup or about the same but Carpenter/Garcia is a better 1-2 punch than Kennedy/Hudson.

Did anyone else see the TMZ report that John Lackey is divorcing his wife while she is in the midst of battling cancer?

Apparently someone in the Boston media texted him about the report before the game yesterday and then afterwards he angrily addressed the media about the reports and said his private life should be off limits.

TTI - If that is the case, the sympathy I had for Lackey's struggles largely went out the window. That is one of the lowest moves a man can make.

Fata - do you remember Manny almost put one out in his first AB too? A rocket off the center field wall. He was absolutely raking when they made the playoffs.

"Looking at the seasons Werth and Crawford had, the Phils made another excellent move signing Pence."

I thought the Phils "traded" for Pence.

MG - neither you or anyone else here has any idea what has been taking place in the Lackey household and it's certainly not our business. To say it's one of the lowest moves a man can make is speculative, presumptuous, and really based on nothing at all.

DBacks vs Cards

Anyone ever see a piece that analyzed how well teams that were entering the playoffs for the first time in quite a while did compared to teams that had recently appeared (say least year or two)/appeared in the playoffs in the previous year?

Oh, and personally, I think a swinging-strike-3-passed-ball batter to first base is just as important as a HR.

Yeah Red, he killed Phillie pitching that series. Just off the top of my head, hit that double against Cole in game 1, hit a. 3 run HR off Myers in game 2, hit an RBI single off Blanton and a double off Lidge in game 4 and an opposite field HR off Hamels in game 5. Good thing we shut the rest of that lineup down, because Manny was on fire that series.

Little Ollie - No I don't but you don't find it to be a shitty move divorcing someone right as they are going through a serious health issue such as breast cancer?

MG, devoid of context, it seems despicable, and it just MAY be, but we don't know the context.

What if Lackey's wife, in a moment of guilt, admitted to him thay she had been unfaithful multiple times?

That would certainly make the divorce seem less reprehensible, no?

Again, without context, we have no idea. And. Lackey's correct; we have no right to said context.

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