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Wednesday, September 14, 2011

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Worth re-posting from the last thread, at least I think it is, so here it is:

Ryan Howard 2011 OPS:
In low leverage situations: .740
In high leverage situations: .877

Ryan Howard 2010 OPS:
In low leverage situations: .821
In high leverage situations: .892

Ryan Howard 2011 OPS:
With RISP and 2 outs: 1.006

Ryan Howard is currently 8th in the NL in Win Probability Added (4.0).

And last I heard, he leads the league in go-ahead RBI and game-winning RBI.

But by all means, the stats prove the guy sucks in the clutch and racks up all his stats when they don't matter.

It seems like we face Anibal every series vs the fish

Let's hope the offense wakes up on the flight back to Philly.

Let's hope the team stays (and gets?) healthy between now and the end of the season. That's really the only thing I worry about.

It must be hard to keep up the intensity over the long season. I'ts great they clinched now so that they will have some time to blow off steam and rest some sore bodies.

Awesome that the Phils will get to clinch the division at home this year.

Should clinch homefield during this homestand as well.

Halladay was just really good today. I would be curious to see the actual numbers but he seemed to throw more offspeed stuff earlier in the count including on the first pitch today.

WP: In ref. to your question from the prior thread, no one but Halladay came anywhere close to earning a LG today ... unless we're including Bud Norris, which I assumed we're not.

As for the "resting sore bodies" thing, I wouldn't hold my breath: Manuel Wants Rest Argument Put To Rest

I do agree w/ Charlie to a certain extent. However, he's almost certain to take it too far. In that sense, these (apparently) minor injuries might have been a bit of a blessing.

I was hoping ESPN or MLB Network would be airing tonight's Diamondbacks/Dodgers game. Instead I've got Cleveland/Texas & NYY/Seattle. Yippee.

GTown, I'm going to that game tonight. Kershaw v. Hudson, so it might turn out to be an interesting contest.

I'm actually conflicted on that Arizona-Dodgers game. I'm sick of seeing Arizona win and would like to see them knocked off their pedestal, but I'd also like to see Kershaw get knocked around & lose. Best case scenario, I guess, is that Kershaw gets roughed up for 8 runs in 2 innings but the Dodgers win anyhow.

BAP, that would work just fine.

GTown, frankly I'm surprised that ESPN would air the Yankees.

The claim that "It is just the 13th time in the franchise's 128-year history that they will participate in postseason play" is wrong.
THERE WAS NO "POST-SEASON" FOR THE FIRST TWO DECADES OF PHILLIES HISTORY. Cripes

Evan Post IS GETTING STEAMED!!!!

The boys should arrive back in Philly refreshed and raring to go after a nice three days rest in Houston.

Any word on Utley's status for the double header?

Preacher: Saintly.

And starterly

and lumpy.

Evan, that doesn't make the statement wrong.

"Cripes."

"THERE WAS NO "POST-SEASON" FOR THE FIRST TWO DECADES OF PHILLIES HISTORY"

Hence, they didn't participate in post-season in those years.

THERE WAS ALSO NO POSTSEASON IN 1994!

NO POSTSEASON IN 1994 GOT ME STEAMED!!!

But no postseason in 1994 meant that the Phillies remained NL Champs.

THE PHILLIES REMAINING NL CHAMPS THROUGH '94 GOT ME ...

Actually, I was pretty OK w/ it. The '93 ride was so intense it burned me out on baseball for a little while.

GTOWN DAVE GETTING BURNED OUT ON BASEBALL AFTER THE '93 RIDE GOT ME STEAMED!!!

...

Too far?

Plus, Macho Row really needed the 94 season to be cancelled so they could have a proper "off cycle".

FAT, NO!!

OLD, THANKS!!! I WAS A LITTLE WORRIED THERE, BUT NOW I FEEL BETTER!!!

Stupid question perhaps, but any chance the Phillies can clinch Sunday? If so, how would things have to go down? Would be great to clinch during a nationally televised game.

3r0ck: It's possible, but I'd prefer the Phils clinch the NL East on Sat., mainly because that's the game for which I have tickets.

3r0ck, the Phils magic number is 4. They can clinch as early as Friday if they win twice tomorrow and win on Friday and the Braves lose either Thursday or Friday. They can clinch by Saturday with no help from the Braves by "simply" winning every game they play. They clinch on Sunday by winning their 4th game that day, assuming the Braves go undefeated between now and then, or by winning their third game, with the Braves having lost once, or by winning their second game, with the Braves..

Well, you get it....

3r0ck: What Fatalotti's trying to say is that the Phillies will clinch Sat., because that's when I'm gonna be there. Sorry, but you're SOL.

3r0ck: It's possible, but I'd prefer the Phils clinch the NL East on Sat., mainly because that's the game for which I have tickets.

Posted by: GTown_Dave

Well I'll be there Sunday! Haha. I'll finally have good seats - first time I'll ever sit so close to the field - I'm row 20 behind 3rd base. It would be a real treat!

So Sunday is their 5th game and they need to win 4, right? So they need to lose one to clinch? I think the Braves wins/losses also impact their # right?

3r0ck, see my above post.

Cripes

PEOPLE WHO DON'T UNDERSTAND HOW MAGIC NUMBERS WORK GET ME STEAMED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(The above post was entirely for the purpose of a cheap joke, 3r0ck; no offense intended)

Thank God for Halladay! A very sad showing by the Phils 'hitters' in Houston. Despite the season record, there is reason for concern if the fightin's run into a hot team in the playoffs. Even with their starting pitching, averaging less than 2 runs per game won't cut it!

(The above post was entirely for the purpose of a cheap joke, 3r0ck; no offense intended)

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, September 14, 2011 at 09:24 PM

3r0ck, same for my prior post. Just having some fun at Evan Post's expense.

Matty Ice, just doing a quick check, and found the Red Sox had a 6 game stretch where they averaged a measly 2.67 runs per game.

Even great offenses go through down stretches.

It's the team's with the stellar pitching that are best equipped to deal with them, should they happen.

Which is to say, if any team is able to handle a random offensive slump, it's the Phillies.

Relax your mind.

I'll be at the game on Sunday. I don't care if they clinch before then, but it would be fun to be there for the clincher.

I see Douche-Rod is already making himself unpopular in Milwaukee. I guess getting a second chance & going from a team in the toilet to playing for a contender simply isn't enough for some guys. What a prick.

GTown, what did he do?

"Which is to say, if any team is able to handle a random offensive slump, it's the Phillies.

Relax your mind"..........Thanks, I will feel better when a HEALTHY Phils team brings the bats alive again!

Fatalotti: Complaining about his role w/ the team. Claims they told him he'd be a Closer, & haven't followed through.

What did Ass Rod do?

Also:

I AM READING THIS THREAD!

GTown, that's hilarious, because not too long ago, I heard one baseball pundit claiming that he was impressed with how K-Rod was accepting his "diminished" role on the team, and was just happy to have a chance to be in playoff contention.

For some players, it really is all about them.

Just glad the Phillies don't have any clowns like that on their squad.

From David Hale's blog:

Halladay is now 9-2 with a 2.37 ERA in 15 starts following a Phillies loss this year. The Phillies are 12-3 in those games.

Fatalotti: One thing I have really come to appreciate about the Phils is that if players have issues, they keep them in-house.

Good Charlie quote (also from David Hale's blog):

“We gave (Halladay) a big cushion to work with,” Manuel said. “We came out and got one walloping run.”

3r0ck, see my above post.

Cripes

Posted by: Fatalotti

For some reason comments update on my end hella slow!

I'm guessing Utley plays the day game, and the B team for KK.
1.Francisco-RF
2.Orr-3B
3.Utley-2B
4.Mayberry-CF
5.Gload-1B
6.Bowker-LF
7.BS.167-C
8.MM-SS
9.KK-P

More good Charlie quotes (from Jim Salisbury):

“Somebody asked me the other day who our MVP was,” Manuel said. “I told them I really didn’t know because our starting pitching and bullpen has been so good. And we’ve had some guys do some good things on offense. But when they asked me that, I thought for a while and told him [general manager] Ruben Amaro.

“I don’t want to stroke Ruben’s ego, and I’m damn sure not kissing him, but he’s done a hell of a job. From an organizational standpoint, the pitching they’ve put together, acquiring Hunter Pence, how much money they’ve spent to make it possible for us to have this kind of team ...”

So, the Baltimore Orioles. They're 30.5 games back in their division. Are they basically a dead franchise? I mean, how long can a team be so utterly bad before people finally just stop paying attention?

Bake: What are these "Orioles" of which you speak?

Speaking of dead franchises, the Pirates have locked up their 19th consecutive losing season, a record for the 4 major U.S. sports leagues.

Tomorrows day game is the make-up for free Cliff Lee back to school gym bag. Will they close the schools so the kids can collect?

There was once a team that was called the Orioles in the city of Baltimore. They were my favorite AL team. In days of yore, they even had a player who played so many games in a row that he broke some sort of long-standing record. I dimly remember fireworks and a home run being involved, I think. Some say the ghost of the team still haunts the ol' playing grounds, cursed to long for past glories while knowing those days will never come again.

Bake: You think that's bad, I saw before Monday's game that it was the first time the Phils played a team that they led by 46.5 games since 1899.

Why would anyone want Cliff Lee's gym bag?

"I saw before Monday's game that it was the first time the Phils played a team that they led by 46.5 games since 1899."

I wonder what Old Phan's memories of that game are.

This is actually postseason #14 for the Phillies.

Ebster: Are you counting the playoff playoff from the '81 strike season? Does that officially count?

The bags will go to the pre-school kids. We're taking our 2-year old and our 2-month old (to her first game). Two gym bags!

Also have a sitter for Sun night so I'm predicting clinch then. We were there for '07 and '08 clinchers, so I think we have the magic touch.

Finally, didn't the Pirates set that record last year? So every year is a new record...

Also, perhaps a dumb question but I'll risk it.

From early in the thread - what's an LG (re: Halladay)?

STEAMED VEGGIES!

Andersog: "Looks/looking Good." Someone on here invented it this season.

I'll predict Chuckles lineups for the DH on Thursday:

Game 1 (versus Sanchez)-

SS Rollins
1B Gload
2B Utley
RF Pence
LF Ibanez
CF Mayberry
3B Valdez
C Schneider
P Kendrick


Game 2 (versus Sanabia)-

CF Victorino
3B Polanco
RF Pence
1B Howard
LF Francisco
C Ruiz
2B Orr
SS Martinez
P Lee

I don't know the exact circumstances (perhaps arguing a HBP), but Kershaw pitched 5 Innings of 1 Hit ball before getting tossed from the game. Might have something to do w/ an incident last night. Craziness.

Controversy a-brewin' in the LA-Arizona game.

Yup. Parra got buzzed by Hong-Chih Kuo last night, then promptly hit a HR ... & proceeded to watch it leave before very slowly rounding the bases. Kershaw began yelling at Parra from the dugout, pointing out that he was pitching tonight, & saying something to the effect of "I'll get you".

Tonight Parra had the only hit off of Kershaw, & got hit on the elbow to start the 6th. Plate ump Welke then tossed Kershaw w/ no warnings issued. So no win for Kershaw, which could come back to hurt him in the Cy Young race. Gotta love MLB, run by a bunch of morons.

Magic # to clinch best record in NL down to 5 after Brewers loss.

GBrettfan: thanks. I must have missed that thread(s). Unfortunate, because I love obscure BL-only stats. DiH? How's Madson doing these days?

Of course, I'm dying to know how Valdez and Martinez are doing on the short-lived Castillo scoring method.

And does anyone know what our pal Luis is up to these days? Newark? St Paul? Riversharks? Salt Dogs?

GTown, did Kershaw toss 5 complete innings?

Did the Dodgers have the lead when he left?

I only ask, because mlb.com is pointing out that Kershaw CAN get the victory.

I'M GETTING STEAMED!!

Fatalotti: You're right. He can get the win, but the Dodgers are only up 2-0, & the MLB Netwprk guys were skeptical of L.A.'s bullpen. Either way, it hurts Kershaw (I believe unfairly so) in a really tight Cy Young race.

GTown: Yep, that includes '81. The Expos shut them down, but I was rooting for the Phils to get back to another WS that year.

Ebster: That strike really killed the Phillies. They were a completely different team before & after. It's a shame.

After tonight, Kershaw has given up 56 ER in 218.2 IP, over 31 GS.

Halladay has given up 57 ER in 219.2 IP, over 30 GS.

These two pitchers are about as close as you can be.

For the record, Lee has given up 57 ER in 210.2 IP, over 29 GS. Another CGSO, and he'll have the exact same numbers as Roy Halalday.

This is fun.

I say OK for Kershaw to hit him and correct for ump to eject him. Just like next time we face the Braves, someone needs to put one in Uggla's kidney in retaliation for the Utley head shot and whoever does it should be prepared to get tossed. It's like civil disobedience - if it's worth doing it's worth paying the price.

Fatalotti: Additionally, Kershaw has pitched 5 CG, all of them Wins & 2 of them CGSO. Lee has pitched 6 CG, all CGSO. And Halladay has pitched 8 CG, 5 of them Wins & 1 of them a CGSO. A lot of things for Cy Young voters to consider.

GTown: Agreed. That was such a disappointing summer once the strike started. Who knows what Schmitty would have done with another 50 or so games. Anyway, enough with the past, I'mstill trying to wrap my head around 102+ wins this season (hopefully).

Ebster: Amen to that!

I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!
I'M BOILING!!
I'M GETTING STEAMED!!

Man. Parra just came up about 2 feet short of tying the Arizona/L.A. game. That woulda been something else.

Every time I read an article about the Cy Young race, I always see it mentioned that Halladay has, by far, the best WAR of the 3 contenders (7.7 for Halladay; 6.6 for Kershaw; 6.2 for Lee). And every time I read this, my immediate thought is, "How on earth can Halladay be worth a full win more than Kershaw & 1.5 more than Lee, when there's absolutely nothing to separate the 3 pitchers statistically?"

So I turned to Fangraphs' definition of pitchers' WAR in the hopes that I might get an answer. Here's the definition:

"To compute the amount from the replacement pitcher, we begin with the average runs allowed by pitchers facing the same set of teams for the same number of innings as the pitcher in question. We then adjust that number by the defense's runs saved for our pitcher (using Total Zone) per ball in play and our pitcher's team's park factor.

So now we have runs allowed by an average pitcher with our pitcher's opponents, defense, and park. We then multiply this by 1.22 or 1.18 (for the AL and NL respectively) to get replacement level for the AL and NL. This gives us Replacement runs, RR.

The replacement level for starters and relievers is different so we then decrease RR by 12.5% times the percent of relief innings thrown. The replacement level reliever has a much lower ERA than the replacement level starter.

We now get the pitcher's runs above replacement (RAR) as actual runs allowed - adjusted RR.

Next, we adjust for leverage and bullpen chaining by multiplying the RAR by (average leverage + 1)/2.

Finally, we adjust this into wins above replacement by dividing by a context-adjusted runs/win value (which is typically around 10)."

After reading that explanation, I feel kind of embarrassed that I had to look it up in the first place. It's all so intuitively obvious.

b_a_p: Gotta admit they lost me about halfway through. But Oklahoma's still #1 in both polls, right?

GTown: I believe they are but Boise State has a higher UZR.

b_a_p: See, I knew WAR placed too much stock in sketchy defensive metrics. No wonder the BCS is such a scam.

Seattle wins and, so, Yankees lose. A good day.

The whole Kershaw kerfuffle was confusing. I didn't know about the previous night's brouhaha, so I could not figure out why Kershaw got ejected so quickly. Alas, he pitched long enough to get the victory, so there you go. D-backs are not a "scary" team, but they have some good pitching.

For those trying to figure out when the Phils clinch, keep in mind that the Braves do not play Thursday and play at home vs the mets over the weekend.

They do face Capuano in the opener, who dazzled them earlier this season.

Also, Brewers now have one more loss at home than the Phils (in 4 more home games).

GOOD MORNING!!!

Plunking: Civil disobedience for millionaires.

1st cool Roy Halladay fact of the day:

Only one pitcher in major league history has accumulated as least 230 IP in a season while only walking only 32 batters. That pitcher is Roy Halladay, and he's done it twice already, and given two normal Halladay starts, should do it a third time this year.

Darn Play Index flubbed up on me:

Other pitchers have done the above, but Halladay, with another season of 230+ IP and <32 BB will become just the 3rd pitcher to do it three times in his career.

Still remarkable.

K-Rod is bringing that mets attitude to the brewers...maybe we do want them in the nlds. he says he isnt happy that he's the setup guy for a closer who's posted a .99 ERA since k-rod was acquired. (i know k-rod has been great since moving to the brewers but quotes like that can mess with team chemistry)

"The season's about to end in two weeks, and we need to win eight more games," Rodriguez said. "So I'll go as hard as I can the next two series coming up and try to wrap them up now. That's it. That's the bottom line now. That's the most important thing."

about to end in two weeks?? i thought the brewers would make the playoffs

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6971197/francisco-rodriguez-not-happy-setup-role-milwaukee-brewers

I know we never get to see the whole picture, but was that 07-08 Mets team the worst collection of attitudes since the 93 Mets? There's just something about the Mets that attracts A-holes.

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