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Wednesday, September 21, 2011


Horrible joke on the post game - Phils had more singles tonight than

The Bravos are in big trouble.

The Nats are going to raring to go, to beat them this weekend. The Nats are a warm team right now.

And then Cholly will likely have his regulars back in the lineup on Monday, to try and finish them off. And you can bet, the Phils will try and finish them off.

I'd look for Cholly to play the next 4 games basically as spring training games. Luckily for them, the Mets aren't the Nats so that will make for a easier landing this weekend.

I'd say we will see Dom Brown make the start in LF tomorrow, with Mayberry in CF and either Bowker or Moss in RF. Yes, that is the OF I expect to see against the young RH Peacock. At this point, why not?

I'd expect to see lineup shuffling through the weekend too. A few regulars will get starts each night.

Then on Monday (likely against rookie Randall Delgado) you'll see Cholly throw the regular 8 back out there and play it all the way through. On Tuesday (likely against Hudson) you'll see the same lineup for at least 7 innings (if the Braves aren't eliminated by then). I'd expect by either Tuesday or Wednesday, the Braves will be toast and the final game will be a typical final game of the regular season.

Not a particularly good time to be handing out silly trophies.

"Not a particularly good time to be handing out silly trophies."

Dom Brown received the Don't Believe the Hype award.

Ben Francisco received the Dude, You're Still Here? award.

John Bowker received the Who the Hell Are You and Where'd You Come From? award.

Brian Schneider received the Come On, Man, WTF? award.

Michael Martinez received . . .

Last 5 WS Champions, record in last 10 games of the regular season:

Giants 7-3
Yankees 7-3
Phillies 7-3
Red Sox 6-4
Cardinals 3-7

* * *

I don't know if it means anything or not, but there you go.

Schneider not even running out that grounder really pisses me off. Shame this useless stiff is going to make the postseason roster simply because he is the backup catcher.

Mini Mart stinks but he hustles.

Interesting races going on. Braves lose, Cards win, BoSox lose, Rays/Yanks tied in the 8th inning.

Ump squeezed the Rays Ramos on Cano and Posado craps one with a broken bat hit for the lead. Screw the Yankees.

Greg Golson in the game for the Yankees in right field.

The last 15 games of the regular season for the last 15 WS winners, including their respective division position at the start of the 15 and at the end. Draw your own conclusions, but I see some strong finishes, some run-of-the-mill finishes, some mediocre finished, and a couple awful finishes.

1995 Braves: 9-6 (up 16.5/ up 21)
1996 Yanks: 8-7 (up 3.5/up 4)
1997 Marlins: 6-9 (back 4.5/back 9)
1998 Yanks: 11-4 (up 20/ up 22)
1999 Yanks: 9-6 (up 4/ up 4)
2000 Yanks: 3-12 (up 7.5/up 2.5)
2001 D-Backs: 10-5 (up 2/up 2)
2002 Angels: 7-8 (tied/ back 4)
2003 Marlins: 9-6 (up 9.5/up 10)
2004 Red Sox: 9-6 (back 3.5/back 3)
2005 White Sox: 10-5 (up 3.5/up 6)
2006 Cardinals: 5-10 (up 5.5/up 1.5)
2007 Red Sox: 7-8 (up 5/ up 2)
2008 Phillies: 12-3 (back 3/up 3)
2009 Yankees: 9-6 (up 6.5/up 8)
2010 Giants: 9-6 (up 0.5/up 2)

My conclusion: your record down the stretch is fairly meaningless. "Hot" teams have won the WS, as have ice cold teams, as well have lukewarm teams and mediocre teams down the stretch.

To echo Jack's words, wake me up when October gets here.

Yankees are about to clinch the AL East and there are a lot of empty seats.

Old Phan, for Yanks fans, clinching the East probably barely even registers. The team has won 26 friggin World Series titles. They have more titles than most teams even have trips to the postseason.

At least the Montreal Canadiens have had the good grace to stay away from the Stanley Cup since 1993.

Fat, yea, it just looks weird.

Some worry about the offense, some the bullpen, and others the bench. I worry about the manager. Don't be surprised if Cholly reverts to his veteran preference in October, and Raul starts EVERY game.

goody - No way. Mayberry will start vs LHP pitching just as he has since late July.

The more interesting argument is whether Mayberry should start period in LF especially on the road instead of Ibanez. I would argue 'yes.'

He's their biggest power threat right now in the lineup & that includes when Howard returns.

Funny Scheinder basically dogs it in a close game late and not a comment here.

I can only imagine if Brown or someone like JRoll/Vic did that.

Fatalotti: Another way of looking at your list would be to say only 31% of World Series winners over the past 16 MLB seasons had a losing record over their final 15 Regular Season Games.

The same can be said as to even making the World Series --

'95 Cleveland 10-5
'96 Atlanta 10-5
'97 Cleveland 7-8
'98 San Diego 6-9
'99 Atlanta 12-3
'00 NY Mets 10-5
'01 NY Yankees 7-7-1
'02 San Francisco 12-3
'03 NY Yankees 9-5-1
'04 St. Louis 8-7
'05 Houston 10-5
'06 Detroit 7-8
'07 Colorado 14-1
'08 Tampa Bay 9-6
'09 Philadelphia 7-8
'10 Texas 7-8

Only 10 of the past 32 World Series participants finished their Regular Season w/ a losing record over their last 15 Games.

Those aren't terrible odds, but they aren't "fairly meaningless", either.

The Phillies have to go 6-1 in their final 7 games to finish w/ an 8-7 record over the last 15 Regular Season Games of '11.

Chad Durbin gave up 3 HR's in one inning tonight in Cleveland.

Juan Carlos Romero actually has pitched decently for Colorado. He's been in 10 games. 7 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 1 (yes only 1) walk and 8 K's.

On Bastardo, why has he gone away from the fastball? Maybe it is actually a confidence issue. He has been beating guys with the fastball all year and now, he is trying to be a finesse pitcher in September? I don't get it.

I think Stutes has worn down. His fastball has lost some life. Not sure what the deal is with Bastardo. Is he hurt? He hasn't been abused. He's only thrown 56 innings this year. He threw 97 innings in 2008. He threw 77 innings in 2009. So this isn't uncharted territory for him.

AB and Venters were the 2 most dominant LHP in baseball throughout most of 2011. Both have hit a wall at the same time and it could be a killer for their teams.

Victorino since September 3rd, is now 11 for his last 78. I think this long stretch of games has really taken the steam out of him in particular. He was in the lineup almost every day for about 3 months straight. I think he has worn down and its showing in September, as the games have kept coming without a day off. I think with a few days off and the rush of the playoffs, he will bounce back and be fine in October.

"Funny Scheinder basically dogs it in a close game late and not a comment here."

This was my stunningly brilliant comment on that:

"Brian Schneider received the Come On, Man, WTF? award."

If Schneider sees even 1/3 of an inning behind the plate in the Postseason, the Phillies will have already been rendered clinically dead by the loss of Chooch. Whatever the backup backstop does or doesn't do at this point in a season is meaningless.

Quite frankly almost the entire f*cking team has been dogging it for 2+ weeks now, & I'm disgusted w/ the lot of 'em (Rolins, Vic & Utley in particular).

The irony is that the Phillies will probably emerge from their coma just in time to sweep the Braves, thereby walking themselves into a considerably tougher first round matchup than the one for which they're currently slated. Not that I care at this point. I just want them to come out of their coma.

For everyone saying that it matters how players are doing going into the playoffs, you must want Ben Francisco to start, right? I mean, he is our hottest hitter (along with Mayberry). So people must think he should be in our lineup for the playoffs, right?

Jack: Only if the NL suddenly introduces the DH.

MG: Clearly, he thought it was foul, and wasn't just being lazy. Besides, he would've been out by 70 feet instead of 80 feet if he ran it out. It was hit right to the first baseman. That doesn't really excuse it but it's not a big deal and the games are meaningless anyway.

Jack: Obviously, based on their overall body of work, Pence, Vic, and a Mayberry/Ibanez platoon are still a much better bet than even a reasonably hot Ben Francisco (not to mention the vast differences on defense). But are you honestly just as confident that Vic is going to have a good game tomorrow as you would have been in the middle of August? Do you honestly think that April's Raul Ibanez was just as likely to get a hit in any particular AB as May's Raul Ibanez? That is pretty much the entirety of my point.

Assisted by Fatalotti's analysis:

The WS winners he lists had an aggregate .590 winning percentage during the season, and an aggregate .554 winning percentage in their last 15 games.

The typical World Series winner plays worse over their last 15 games than they did over the whole season.

DH Phils - That's a bunch of excuses. He gave up on a play. That simple.

denny b - Yeah but this is Bastardo's first season where he has had this kind of workload as a reliever.

I don't think he is hurt though. He just can't locate his fastball right now & doesn't have enough confidence to use it. It is worrisome though because this is now a full month where he has struggled with the same issue. If he was only 2-3 appearances, it would be another.

Unless there is a lefty-lefty matchup, I don't think you will see Bastardo in the playoffs in the 7th/8th at all.

Its sink or swim with Lidge in the 8th and I bet Worley in the 7th. Basically Bastardo is going to be demoted from the setup man to a lefty-lefty specialist again.

Not even sure why Blanton bothered to came back this year. He's pitched in 2 games since he was activated on Sept 5th. Both times was in the 8th inning when the Phils were down at least 4 runs. He won't even be on the postseason roster at this point.

Should have just shut it down in August, had the elbow surgery, and worked on coming back for the start of spring training next year.

As for the hardware from the writers, they made the right calls. Kudos to the guys who received them.

I didn't actually see the Brian Schneider play, since I had given up on the game by that point. Nonetheless, I have an absolutely unshakable belief that he was dogging it & should, therefore, be cut from the team summarily.

Schneider thought it was foul. I did, too, but of course I wasn't at bat, although I did the kitchen.

Remember all those posts about how the Phils could go .500 the rest of the way and how great their record would be, etc.? Those we so inspiring...

I'm most interested to see how they do in the last two series of the season, especially the one with the Braves. Should give a better picture as to what kind of shape they are in for the postseason.

How can Schneider be cut that means Valdez will be the backup catcher? Anyways this is looking ugly this is more than just a little hump. Something is wrong here i can only hope they fix it an fix it quick. Looks like we have to rely on Lidge if Bastard doesnt fix his problem. That only means one thing we are in deep trouble....DEEP CACA!

If the way in which the Phillies performed at Home vs. a Washington team w/ nothing to play for is any indication, the Phillies playing a Road series vs. a desperate Braves team will be a f*cking massacre ... no pun intended.

I can hear the WHOA-OH OH OH OH, whoa-oh oh oh oh now.

And it sickens me.

Dom Brown jogged to first on a dropped 3rd strike last week in Allentown.

The desperate Braves haven't impressed much lately, which is what has made them desperate in the first place.

Is it Fan Appreciation Day? I'd say that's a good day to win. I don't think the fans will appreciate a sweep on their home field against the Nats.

Clearly Schneider is an awful person, terrible player and must be stopped from being on the postseason roster. MG will dedicate every comment from here on out to Schneider until he is removed from the roster.

Who cares about Schneider? Give it a rest MG.

The Phils went to Atlanta at the end of last season and kept trying to hand them wins. They wouldn't take them the first two nights and if it weren't for Danys Baez, we'd have swept them with a bunch of scrubs. I'd love to see that again.

Wow, not one comment about Captain America. Guess he can do no wrong although the minute Howard farts crosseyed, the haters pop up!!!!! When the hell is Utley going to take some heat for being God Awful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So, I know I brought this up last night half-jokingly...but how much trade value does Dom Brown have? Why not consider moving him for a 3B or even a SS and letting Mayberry take over LF next year?

Brown's bat may have better potential upside but he'll never be half the defender that Mayberry is.

I haven't looked at this Peacock guy's numbers or even know much about him. But he's a young pitcher named Peacock. Feels like a loss.

No it just a BS double standard just as dick allen is right to point out how terrible Utley has been for 2 months with very little a word on here.

Best case scenario in the playoffs is that the starters go at least 8 and in Halladay and Lee's case, all 9.

Its kinda sweet to watch the Phils just lose a bunch of games after they clinch(unless you had tickets of course).

Obviously they are not up there trying to fail - it just goes to prove that 'heart' and 'mental preperation' are very real things that can not be measured in statistics. Players aren't robots who follow their statline and there are such things as clutch and intangibles.

Maybe thats why fangraphs seems to despise the phillies - because they are living proof that their black and white outlook on baseball is not the true nature of the game played by human beings with emotion.

With the way the Braves are playing and have been playing, that sweep at the hands of the Phils a couple weeks ago is looking less and less impressive. I really want the Braves to make it and not the Cardinals who are a bad matchup for the Phils and would likely prevail as they have owned the Phils this year.

As far as Utley, I've seen plenty of comments on here about his suckiticity being an automatic out. I won't go searching for the posts, but you're free to do so.

yeah it's like we are supposed to go to the ballpark and tar and feather him or something. he sucks. that's all you can say. it's the freakin internet

You'd be trading DOM for pennies on the dollar at this point. I understand if you(and others) think that pennies is worth more than nothing, but thats usually a bad business model.

I say we tank the Braves series to help them get in the playoffs. Rather not see the Giants pitchers.

yeah that'll happen. giants aren't going to make it anyway

lorecore-I would enjoy seeing some emotion from the phillies again, you really can understand how they are flat right now.
It's been a long time since Spring Training.
But, the intensity will be needed in another week, I hope they can once again flip the "on" switch.

Last home game of the year - maybe they get up for 'fan appreciation night'.

dennyb: "I'd say we will see Dom Brown make the start in LF"

- I hope you are right, you will see a happy drunk sporting his DOM shirt in the LF 2nd row.

Since Utley's struggles are on the table: Yes, Chase has been awful at the plate recently. Previously, I had thought he was gradually making his way back, and was hoping this latest blip was simply a late season slump that he would break out of.

Now it appears he may be hurt. When he was seemingly on the mend and back to being Chase, you could almost see that quick, almost wandlike swing returning more and more frequently. My more recent observation is that he's lost the ground he had gained on his swing; I haven't seen the crisp short swing for some time. I'm not a Doc nor a student of bio-mechanics, but this looks like more than things being momentarily out of whack, whcih happens to all players. The recent ESPN segment noted previously is additional cause for concern.

My guess is he's hurting, and that the team oand the fans would be wise not to plan for much different than what we are seeing post season.

I remember when he was struggling earlier, clout (correctly, I think) felt is was simply a mini-slump. I'm feeling this is more serious. Curious what others think.

On the vitriol and hating versus Howard, it may be that people are giving Utley more slack because of his injury earlier this year and the possibility he may be injured to some extent now. While it's frustrating to watch the cascade of popups to the left and grounders to the right, I think he's doing what he can. I see no need to spew venom at him any more than at say, Kendrick. Right now I believe Utley is another player who does what he can with what he has at the moment.

it's the same injury/ailment. he has been injured the whole time. the article on what he has to do just to play a game should have told everyone that. it is what it is

I certainly agree that he is injured. It makes me think about Cholly saying that he'd rest Utley occasionaly once he returned this season, it happened a few times and then Utley played every game and inning. Did he need more rest and has worn down?

The AL Wildcard contenders have squared off against the Orioles one after another the past three series.

vs. Rays: 2-1
vs. Angels: 2-1
vs. Red Sox: 3-1

They have one of the worst records this year and are cleaning up these series against formidable teams that are really itching to win their spots.

In the meantime, the B-Phillies squabble the Nats with nothing to lose but steam. I may be a bit worried about the Cards, but otherwise, we have it pretty good right now.

Rovicley just need to sit down and gather themselves. Or start to care a little more. Whatever the issue is.

st, do you remember where/when the article appeared? Thanks.

Utley and Howard are totally different situations. Howard is being paid a lavish $20M to hit just .250 with 33 homers & 115 RBIs. Utley, on the other hand, is being paid a team-friendly $15M to hit .259 with 10 homers.

it was a few weeks ago in one of the philly papers either the inky or daily news. it's the article that talks about how he has to go through the same stretches 4 or 5 times on game day just to play. but i don't remember exactly when it was written

in light of BAP's recent post, some Utley #'s:

ISO - .165 (vs. career .216)
LD % - 12.7% (vs. career 20.3%)
AB - 375
WAR - 3.6

Ryan Howard AB - 624
Ryan Howard WAR - 1.6

not to start a debate, but somehow, half a season of a lackluster Chase Utley is STILL twice as valuable as Ryan Howard????????? laughable, really.

Chase is having his worst season by any metric you could look at. When it goes for second basemen, it really goes i suppose.

I'm beginning to think that Chase will never be an elite player anymore. He's just too fragile.

Yo, newer thread

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