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Thursday, September 29, 2011

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ESPN seems to think that Hamels is starting games 3 and 4. What a stud: http://espn.go.com/mlb/schedule

From the last thread:

***Chris in VT: Ugh, I've got to be at a wedding at 4:30 Saturday...on the bright side, the groom is a huge Phils fan so more than likely the game will be available somewhere...Otherwise my wife is going to kill me while I watch the game on my phone throughout the reception.***

A true fan would have scheduled his ceremony for 1pm or 3pm...who the heck gets married at 4:30 pm???


Round Church in Richmond?

Took TBS long enough, but Phils fans ought to be pleased w/ the times for Games 1 & 2, I think, esp. if they're also Penn State &/or Eagles fans.

Missed the previous thread, but I'm still basking in the wonder of last night. For me it was the greatest night in MLB history that didn't end in the Phillies winning a WFC. I think SI's Joe Posnanski phrased it best:

"If I was trying to explain baseball to someone who had never heard of it, I wouldn’t tell them about Wednesday night. No, it seems to me that Wednesday night isn’t what makes baseball great. It’s all the years you spend waiting for Wednesday night that makes baseball great."

Amen.

NEPP - Nah, it's down in Bordentown, NJ...Old childhood friend from back home around Philly.

He just texted me that the deal he made with the bride was that a Fall wedding meant there had to be a TV available for the guests if the ceremony conflicted with a playoff game.

Thank God.

I believe it was noted philosopher of ancient China Laozi who wrote:

"If she doesn't understand why any weekend from Labor Day through Super Bowl Sunday is a f*ckin' terrible time for a wedding, the marriage will fail."

Fletch, that should put to rest all this talk questioning Cole's manliness with ESPN having Cole pitch back to back playoff games!

A real man would pitch Games 1 & 2. Who the hell cares about 3 & 4...freaking nancy boy.

Chris in VT: Coincidentally, I work with someone who is getting married on Saturday. We were joking earlier in the year about her wedding possibly interfering with a Phillies playoff game. And they live in Jersey!

Hamels will be pitching Games 3 & 4 because 3 & 4 are the number of HRs he will surrender in each respective contest.

Dom Brown down in the Instructional League yet? Can we get a highlight package of him shagging a few balls in LF? Anything to erase the mental image of his last defensive outing would do...

They list Hamels as the Game 4 starter because they know there won't be a Game 4.

My wedding reception, at a venue with zero TVs, took place the evening of game 3 of the 2008 WS. Fortunately, the game was delayed so we all got to watch it in the hotel bar in a post-reception drunken, happy haze. Lot of jokes about Eric Bruntlett, scoring, wedding night, etc.

"Anything to erase the mental image of his last defensive outing would do..."

Hunter Pence throwing home to get Uggla last night erased pretty much every memory of Dom Brown I had.

BTW, what's the status on Matt Holiday?

Someone asked earlier today (maybe on a previous thread) if JW could post all of Chipper's talk about how he thought they could beat the Phillies.

Here is some of it:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/05/chipper-jones-on-the-phillies-were-not-scared-of-them/


Sure, Chipper's not 'scared', but he's headed home nonetheless.

"Anything to erase the mental image of his last defensive outing would do..."

If the mental image of last night's hideous AB didn't overwrite your mental image of his fielding gaffes, nothing will.

terrific. my step daughter's birthday party is on Saturday at 4pm.


Odds to win the 2011 NL Pennant:
Philadelphia Phillies -175
Milwaukee Brewers +375
Arizona Diamondbacks +600
St. Louis Cardinals +650

I've been told all year that no team could possibly have more than a 50% chance to make it to the World Series because the playoffs are a crapshoot. Seems like a good time to make a nice profit?


I scheduled a trip to Europe for October 2007 during the summer. The perennial almost wild card Phils of the time were way behind the Mets.

So that happened, but we were scheduled to return home in the middle of the NLDS, so I rationalized it that the only way I miss the whole series is if somebody sweeps....

I did catch some of Game 1 over there, so early games are good for something.

I'm thrilled Sunday's game is at 8. Wouldn't have been able to catch ANY of the game if it had been in the afternoon.

whitey - I refuse to bet against the Phillies, but I am someone who on one day this season claimed the odds of the Phils making the WS is around 50% and I still believe that. Do you think the 64% you're posting is more accurate? It certainly seems very high to me

whitey, what does vegas know? CRAPSHOOT CRAPSHOOT CRAPSHOOT!!!!!

WTF cares what oddsmakers say? Who was the favorite last season?

(Hint: The best team in baseball that got eliminated in the NLCS.)

"If I was trying to explain baseball to someone who had never heard of it, I wouldn’t tell them about Wednesday night. No, it seems to me that Wednesday night isn’t what makes baseball great. It’s all the years you spend waiting for Wednesday night that makes baseball great."

Poz can write, that's for sure, but I don't know if I agree with the sentiment.

I had lunch with my sports-indifferent father, two MLB-indifferent sisters** and a baseball-indifferent niece and they were enthralled when I gave them the 2 minute rundown of last night's MLB action.

** Both have played a lot of softball over the years but don't follow baseball at all.

whitey, I just looked up the odds. It's between +160 and +175, which puts us right back into "crapshoot crapshoot crapshoot" territory.

Shoot, my apologies whitey if I confused you with my mistake. I see you were writing down the odds for making the WS and I accidentally perused the various books for winning it. I'm seeing -175 to -150.

Hamels will be pitching Games 3 & 4 because 3 & 4 are the number of HRs he will surrender in each respective contest.

Why don't we just skip Cole's spot in the rotation and alleviate everyone's fears? Ship him off to Boston or someone else that needs pitching.

Tired of Cole Hamels bashing in this town.

All I know is that last night was a great night to be a Red Sox hater. Get rid of Francona and that ridiculous smock.

Single funniest state about the Red Sox collapse:

"From August 30 through September 24, they were 2-18 in games in which they scored fewer than NINE runs?!"

Single funniest stat about the Red Sox collapse:

"From August 30 through September 24, they were 2-18 in games in which they scored fewer than NINE runs?!"

I scheduled my wedding for late this November and a Saturday. No way was I risking a playoff overlap!

Weddings and marriage can really get in the way of enjoying Phillies baseball. Not entirely the reason I got divorced a little over a year ago, but certainly and added fringe benefit!

Randy Ready canned in San Diego

If the mental image of last night's hideous AB didn't overwrite your mental image of his fielding gaffes, nothing will.

I've probably seen hundreds of players strike out on 3 pitches. I have never seen anyone else come close to doing what Dom Brown did to the LV outfield on that fateful night.

MG: The Boston hitters really let that team down. So much for stepping up in clutch situations.

The betting lines aren't based on the chance of winning, but, as I understand, on what odds result in the betting being equal on all sides.

Even if you think the Phillies have a 70% chance of beating the Cardinals and a 70% chance of beating the Brewers/Dbacks, that still comes out to a 49% chance of getting to the world series, which seems about right.

The playoffs WERE a crapshoot.

But once the Phillies won 4 straight games, and became the "hottest" team in the NL, backed by "momentum," it will now, obviously, be a cakewalk.

“The only team that can really put any pressure on them and beat them somewhat is us. And I hope we get them head-to-head in the postseason. If we get them head-to-head, we like our chances. We’ve beaten their big three. I’m not sure if any other team in baseball has beaten their big three. They’re a great ballclub, don’t get me wrong. But we’re not scared of them. It’s going to be a knock down, drag out [fight].”

HAHAHHAHAHHAAH

/tear

Dave - Yeah the Red Sox scored 146 runs in 27 games (5.7 R/G). 3rd in the AL in Sept

Their pitching was the worst in MLB with a team ERA of 5.84 and they gave up 172 runs in 27 games (6.4 R/G).

Hard for even the '27 Yanks to win games with a pitching staff that is giving up that many runs a game.

Comparison sake the Phils had the best pitching in MLB in Sept with a scant 2.92 ERA and gave up just 100 runs in 30 games.

MG: And that Boston staff got paid a total of $78 Million or so in '11, more than the entire team payroll for 12 clubs, inc. the Diamondbacks & Rays.

Phlipper - For once, I agree with you 100%. Cards will be a tougher matchup for this team than most people think and they knocked out an inferior team in the Braves.

Vegas lines aren't a proxy for the books on who they think will win. They create lines so they get people to bet on the underdogs so that even if the favorite wins & they have to pay out they still make a tidy profit.

Where they get hosed potentially is if an underdog that attracts normal attention than they anticipated and actually wins. Vegas books always makes money if the favorite wins.

Bill Baer with a great stat about last night's Rays' game:

"The reset button was pushed with two outs in the bottom of the ninth when Dan Johnson — who hadn’t reached base via a hit since April 27 — hit a home run down the left field line to tie the game and breathe life back into the Rays’ playoff hopes."

That's crazy!

I assume those posters now in a tizzy over having to face the Cards in a 5 game series have amended their opinion that losing 3 of 4 to St. Louis during the Phils' NL East clinching series was "meaningless"?

Personally, I think St. Louis is a good team, but I do not fear them. The Phillies are better, point blank, & if they show up & play to their abilities the Phillies will win this NLDS.

David Hale with a smackdown post:

"You’ll no doubt hear a good bit in the next few days about how the Phillies lost six of their nine regular-season games to the Cardinals, and that will seem like ample justification for St. Louis pulling an NLDS upset.

And, sure, it’s possible the Cardinals could find a way to win three games. In a short series, anything is possible, and St. Louis has plenty of talent on its roster.

But the regular-season series doesn’t really tell us a whole lot.

Of the Phillies’ projected starting eight in the postseason, only Jimmy Rollins played in all nine games against the Cards this season.

Raul Ibanez missed four games. Carlos Ruiz and Ryan Howard each missed three. Chase Utley was out the first two. Hunter Pence only played in the last four.

In fact, some of the lineups have been downright atrocious.

When the Phillies lost a 2-1 games to Jaime Garcia on May 17, Dane Sardinha was the catcher, Wilson Valdez played second and Michael Martinez was in centerfield, batting second.

In fact, the Phillies played just one game (pre-Pence) with their regular lineup (including Domonic Brown) and won that one 10-2. They played just one game (post-Pence) with their regular lineup, too. They won that one 9-2, clinching the NL East in the process.

Even the occasionally sporadic pitching against St. Louis comes with something of an asterisk.

On May 16, the Phillies lost a game 3-1 in which Cliff Lee walked six batters. SIX! I’ll write my game story naked on Sunday if Lee walks six again. In fact, Lee has just six walks in his last seven starts combined (53.2 innings) and he walked just two batters the entire month of September — and those both came in the same game.

On May 17, the Phillies lost a game 2-1 only after Danys Baez allowed three straight hits in the ninth inning, and J.C. Romero gave up the game-winning single to Lance Berkman in relief of Baez. Both of those pitchers have since been released.

On June 23, the Phillies fell to the Cardinals 12-2. They never stood a chance in that game. You might remember the post-game discussion with Roy Oswalt after he lasted just two innings. His back hurt so bad, he thought his career might be over. It’s safe to say he’s recovered rather nicely, however. In his last three starts, he has a 2.61 ERA with a 15-to-3 K-to-BB ratio. Four of the six runs he allowed came in the same inning. He’s routinely hitting 93-95 on the radar gun again.

On Sept. 16, the Phillies lost to St. Louis 4-2. The difference in the game was an ugly 11th inning pitched by Michael Schwimer in which he allowed three hits. Schwimer, of course, won’t be on the postseason roster.

The other two losses both came in the immediate aftermath of clinching the division, and that’s a hangover that the Phillies have since shown they’re well past.

It’s not to say that this series is a lock, or that the Cardinals aren’t a dangerous adversary. But anyone who points to the regular season outcomes as justification for the Cardinals postseason fate is ignoring the details in favor of an easy narrative."

I am trying to make some people here rich. If the playoffs are just a crapshoot, bet against the Phillies because, according to oddsmakers, the Phils are about 60% - 65% to make the World Series.

As of now, the odds have dropped to -150 from -175 so people seem to be taking my advice.

3r0ck: Note the score. This kid started crying while his team was still ahead! Either he's upset about something other than the game, or he needs to nut up. I suggest turning tears into biting sarcasm. Doing so has gotten Philadelphia through the bulk of the past 130 years.

"Son, remember how Uncle Ronnie got sick and didn't come to Grammy's house for Christmas anymore? Well that is happening to Chipper's career. Glad we had this talk."

No, he realizes that it was inevitable that the Phillies would win.

3r0ck: Note the score. This kid started crying while his team was still ahead! Either he's upset about something other than the game, or he needs to nut up. I suggest turning tears into biting sarcasm. Doing so has gotten Philadelphia through the bulk of the past 130 years.

Posted by: GTown_Dave

They showed the kid throughout the game and if memory serves me right this was when Kimbrel loaded the bases with only 1 out in the 9th. Still cracks me up a bit - he will have much different memories about his Braves then our kids will have about our Phillies.

call me a bleeding-heart, but I felt TERRIBLE when I saw that kid. Reminded me of, well, me.

To be completely honest, I did feel a twinge of empathy for Crying Braves Kid. Crying Mets Kid from a few years back, however? He can kiss my a**. Enjoy your "Batting Champion", you snot-nosed little weasel.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7035635/major-league-baseball-offense-2011-dropped-two-decade-low

so, offense was down apparantly this year. huh, first i've heard of it.

I felt no sympathy for crying Mets kid either. There are limits to my decency.

I question the fanhood of Atlanta in general. You know damn well if the situation were reversed Phillies fans would have had FireFrediGonzalez.com up & running before Pence even saw a single pitch in the 13th. I'm convinced that was the ultimate difference last night, & the reason the Braves aren't playing a game in St. Louis today. I'm also surprised that practically no one outside of this blog has questioned the decision to let Pence bat. It's the type of thing you'd expect baseball people to jump on.

It always does amaze me how camera guys are able to find little kids and those spots right as they are about to/just started crying.

I felt bad for the kid. One thing for the team to lose on TV as a kid. Another to be there live at the ball park.

Went to Opening Day a number of consecutive years from say the mid-80s to the mid-90s and often remember feeling bumped out as the Phils would often lose.

I can see that kid in about 20 years, posting one hand-wringing comment after another even as his team leads the league in victories for two years running - unable to adapt to the fact that his team is no longer the collection of losers he followed in his youth.

I'd feel bad...if the Braves hadn't won 14 straight divisional titles.

Of course that kid wasn't even a gleam in his father's eye when that happened but I still hold it against him. Cry the tears of unthinkable sadness!!!

I still remember being dragged to rain games (my dad had a generous boss who gave him his personal tickets on days when it was 105 degrees or 20 degrees and it was scheduled to pour). Those games against equally brutal to watch Stros and Braves must have left me in tears too.

Phlipper: The sight of Michael Martinez just brings those feelings flooding back ... It's sports fan PTSD.

***posting one hand-wringing comment after another even as his team leads the league in victories for two years running - unable to adapt to the fact that his team is no longer the collection of losers he followed in his youth.***

That's pretty much why I'm the way I am as a fan...and a person. I just assume the worst will happen and am pleasantly surprised when it doesnt. Every time I watch the 08 WS Blu-Ray, I still sit there in disbelief that we won. I think 1993 solidified that feeling in me as a Phillies fan. We had come so close and were crushed. I was 12 at the time and had been a huge fan from the moment I could walk. I distinctly remember going to games super early and always sitting down the 3B side to see Michael Jack play in my formative years as a fan. I also remember getting a Game program signed by Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Avery at a Phillies/Braves game in the early 90s and then stupidly losing it a few years later. I wonder if that would be worth anything today.

It would be really mean if 3r0ck posted that pic on Talking Chop.

That poor kid was crying while the Braves were still winning. I think it is classless to show a little kid crying on TV. Players and adults are one thing but kids should be off limits IMO.

Tbs question, how will people be able to cope without back to back Friends and King of Queens reruns after their local VHF market King of Queens and Friends shows end at 8?

Braves failing to make the playoffs...very funny.

Noticed they didn't cut back to the kid after the 9th (at least not that I saw--I was admittedly flipping between games).

Thanks for that 5:32 post, GTown.

Seriously, that explains something that I've been wondering about ever since stumbling upon BLer: the irrational and obsessive hatred of the few bad players that inevitably inhabit the bottom rung of the roster of an extremely good team.

Now I get it, it's a way of exorcising those demons of our youth. For me, the success early in the Charlie Manuel era did the trick for me. Watching the team begin getting to the playoffs and advancing deeper in the playoffs convinced me that expecting the worst and thinking they're all a bunch of bums was no longer a way to protect myself against having my hopes dashed.

But I guess that some kids were just more traumatized than I was in my youth as a Phillies fan - and so it will take longer for them to work their way through the PTSD.

Along those lines, and given the severity of your case, allow me to express my sympathies for the depth of the trauma you experienced as a child. Just keep remembering:

"The Phillies are good enough, the Phillies are smart enough, and doggone it, people like the Phillies."

Braves failing to make the playoffs...very funny.

Posted by: Rauls grandpa | Thursday, September 29, 2011 at 05:38 PM

LLOLL, muy bueno.

There's not a single player on the team that I hate. There are some I would rather not see playing for us but I dont hate any of them.

I even liked Gnome...especially after his great 08 WS. Like it or not, 2 game winning runs out of him was pretty huge.

The Phillies will have managed their own Choke of Epic Proportions if they do not win this NLDS. To wit:

The Cardinals will start Kyle Lohse in Game 1 against the Phillies on Saturday in Philadelphia and follow with Edwin Jackson in Game 2 on Sunday.

Chris Carpenter will then pitch Game 3 at Busch on Tuesday.

No announcement has been made on a Game 4 starter, but it is likely to be Jaime Garcia.

Full Article: Lohse To Start Game 1 Vs. Phillies

So seriously...did Garcia get hit by a bus or something? I'd love to hear LaRussa's reasoning on not using him against us before Game 4.

Garcia vs. PHL (Career)

6 G, 4 GS, 30 IP, 2-1, 1.20 ERA, 18 H, 4 ER, 10 BB, 21 SO, 0.933 WHIP

He OWNS us.

Jackson has 1 start against us and we saw him as a reliever in 08.

In that start, he took the loss going 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO, 2.0 WHIP

In the 08 WS, he pitched 2 innings giving up 1 ER. It was part of the Game 4 blowout where we won 10-2. Blanton hit that HR off him.

I still gotta believe that LaRussa would use Carpenter on short rest for game 2 if they lose game 1. Doesn't make sense to leave your prize horse in the stable when you are at risk of being down 0-2 in a best of 5.

NEPP: It's almost as if LaRussa expects to be up 2-1 or down 2-1 come Game 4 ... wait, what?

On second thought, maybe saving Garcia isn't such a bad idea. Evil Genius figures High-May will be there, Phillies-owning ways in glove, ready to either drop the hammer or save the season.

Garcia not pitching until Game 4?! That is absurd.

So, Lohse would be in a pivotal Game 5 too?

Wow.

I'm guessing that LaRussa is playing the hot hand:

Sept Splits
Lohse: 4 GS, 2-0, 1.37 ERA,
Garcia: 5 GS, 3-0, 2.64 ERA

Oh wait...both are hot.

I can only imagine that it already has something to do with LaRussa overthinking something and overmanaging before the series even starts. He probably has some data that shows that Garcia is virtually unbeatable when batting 8th, in a day game, at home on 5th day of even numbered months, or something like that.

Maybe someone should let him know that it's a 5 game series, and there may not even be a game 4.

On second thought, nah...

He could be saving Garcia for a home game...he has a pretty severe home/road split this year:

Home: 9-4, 2.55 ERA
Away: 4-3, 4.61 ERA

Lohse has reverse splits...

Home: 6-5, 3.67 ERA
Away: 8-3, 3.13 ERA

Garcia was pitiful on the road and Lohse pitched better on the road. Its all about the splits and Tony Larussa knowing more than you.

LaRussa is a genius...we should all trust in that.

I also hope he brings in a terrible LHP to face one of our LHBs while pulling a much tougher RHP to do so. He's never ever done that and had it blow up in his face before.

hopefully he brings in rhodes.

"Well, I cant pitch Garcia on the road so I'll pitch him at home...crap, the first home game is Carp's rotation spot so I guess I'll hold back Jaime until Game 4."

It's Brilliant!!!

I really really want us to sweep them now so the whole world can see this genius at work.

what he is thinking is that he wants a road split and then he has carpenter/garcia vs hamels/oswalt. it's risky but i guess it could work.

MLB network is showing Garcia as the game 2 starter.

Chris Carpenter has never started on 3 days rest in his career.

mlb network is wrong. not the first time

We can try to rationalize the decision of an historically questionably rational manager all we want (and I'm sure some inkling of his genius thought process will come out soon so the "experts" can analyze it to death), but this is a simple instance of where I'll take Cholly's simplistic approach every single day of the week.

We'd be crucifying Cholly if he held back Doc until Game 4, and he could at least make an argument that Lee/Hamels are legit aces, too!

So, we're down 2-1 going into Game 4...does UC bump Doc up to pitch on 3 days rest over ViceRoy?

***mlb network is wrong. not the first time***

They're not wrong so much as just assuming that the Cards would stick to their normal rotation.

LaRussa's Brain & Charlie's Gut are like Offsetting Penalties in football. Considered individually they're a detriment, but taken together they're a wash.

"So, we're down 2-1 going into Game 4...does UC bump Doc up to pitch on 3 days rest over ViceRoy?"

That's the beauty of it. No chance we're down 2-1 with the way Professor Tony has set up games 1-3.

Doc/Lee is a massive mismatch over Lohse/Jackson.

Preacher: It feels as if I've watched the Phillies look like total crap vs. Lohse before.

Garcia in CBP:

2 GS, 1-0, 1.38 ERA

maybe he wants garcia in the pen for the 1st two games to solidify it

Lohse best us up this year going 1-1 in 2 starts but with a 1.76 ERA.

We destroyed him in his only start against us last year though so go figure.

maybe he knows the phils had the best record in the NL (all of MLB?) vs. LHP.

I'm wary of Lohse for the simple fact that he (a) used to play for the Phillies, & (b) stunk. It's the perfect rope-a-dope.

With Garcia as the only LHP in their rotation, we will get plenty of Raul Ibanez in LF.

Much rather see Mayberry start even against RHPs.

that won't happen

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