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Friday, September 16, 2011

Comments

Wonder how long it will take Jack and other leading members of the Moronocracy to recover from yesterday's nightcap?

Five good innings from Kendrick and game winning hit by Howard. Yipes!

Phillies Team ERA: 3.00

This year's all-ex-Phillies rotation has to include Freddy Garcia (11-7, 3.71), Gio Gonzalez (13-12, 3.41), Gavin Floyd (12-11, 4.42), Chen (11-7, 4.04), Josh Outman (3-5, 3.59) and Carrasco (8-9, 4.62).

Only Garcia plays for a winning team.

The only think Jason Michaels is good at hitting is off-duty police officers.

What a post, Silverman. Most of those are names I really didn't want to remember (Figueroa, Chen, Punto...), and I'm sufficiently shocked that teams are still kicking the tires on them, with the possible exception of Greg Dobbs.

The Phillie most likely to sign elsehwere in the off-season, & surprise Beerleaguer by putting up credible numbers next year: Brian Schneider.

And, to clarify: in no way, shape, or form should my 10:53 post be understood as a call to resign Brian Schneider.

repost:

Kershaw the Fraud:

Home: 11-1, 1.72 ERA, .882 WHIP .252 BABAIP
Away: 8-4, 2.90 ERA, 1.086 WHIP .304 BABIP

And there is Doc:

Home: 8-2, 2.32 ERA, .975 WHIP, .311 BABIP
Away: 10-3, 2.35 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, .310 BABIP

2.90 ERA, 1.086 WHIP is good and all - but please get the hell away from Roy Halladay's name when trying to be a CY Young winner with those numbers.

Take out his starts in SD and SF and see how average his road split suddenly looks:

Away: 12 GS, 4-4, 3.86 ERA

"Am I the only one who has noticed the following irony? Matt Kemp is having a fantastic, MVP-caliber season, but is widely viewed as undeserving because he plays for a bad team. Clayton Kershaw is having a fantastic, CY Young-caliber season, and more than a few "pundits" have been heard to promote his cause on the ground that he has done all this while playing for a bad team."

- BAP

no, i'm sure many have noticed. it's the word "valuable" that makes this possible. Cy Young is for the most outstanding pitcher. MVP has a littany of potential definitions.

Hell, just take away his 5 overall starts against SF this year (where he went 4-0, 1.04 ERA) and see how "great" he looks.

Fact is, he plays in a division with a historically bad offense and a really bad offense in SD as well.

He's gotten to start fully 1/4 of his games against those two teams.

"Wonder how long it will take Jack and other leading members of the Moronocracy to recover from yesterday's nightcap?

Five good innings from Kendrick and game winning hit by Howard. Yipes!"

proof positive that Ryan Howard is one hell of a pinch hitter! (kidding, seriously)

Honestly, with such great PH splits, the smart move is to go with a Bowker/Gload platoon at 1B and save Howard's bat for the later innings.

Its what smart managers do to win ballgames.

Whoever posted that hateful rant about Howard never delivering in the clutch deserves the 2011 BAP award for mastering the BLer reverse-jinx strategy.

Michaels has made over $9M over 11 seasons in his career for being a mediocrity with a 95 OPS+.

I don't mind if Howard gets $20M but something does bother me a bit when a marginal guy like Michaels is making over $1M a year. I guess when the spoils are so large that even the bit players make out like bandits.

I do wonder when the inevitable balloon will go out of baseball a bit and salaries simply won't be able to keep pace with that they have since the mid-1990s through today.

Halladay should be the leader in the NL race for the Cy Young right now because of Kershaw pitching in one of the most favorable pitcher's park in the NL, pitching several games in SD/SF, and getting to face such inept offenses.

Halladay has dominated the Padres/Giants when he has faced them too. If he pitched in LA or SD, my bet is that he would get damn close to haven an ERA under 2 at home.

Doc hasn't gotten to play the Giants this year. Lincecum got them 5 times (out of 30 starts).

Doc hasn't gotten to play the Giants this year. Lincecum got them 5 times (out of 30 starts).


Huh?

He obviously meant Kershaw.

Ridiculous pitching stat of the day:

Phillies have surrendered 2 runs or less in a game 67 times this, or in 45% of their games.

Fata, I knew that. Was just having a little fun.

3 runs or less 89 times, or 60% of their games.

"awh: In terms of future planning, would it be fair to worry about the fact that our starting 8 have played only 7 games together this year?

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, September 16, 2011 at 10:34 AM"


bap, we've always known you're a 'glass-half-empty' kind of guy.

Oh, and Drew, no offense, wbut who really GAS what ex-Phillies do?

i enjoy following ex-phils

Bigotto- we need to keep an eye on future Phillie killers like Dobbs.

Bigotto: This was a classic Beerleaguer post. Many of these players were Beerleaguer heroes. I mean, everyone though Figueroa should have been kept over half the pitchers on our staff just last year.

Well done, Drew!

The concern about our starting lineup not playing together isn't about some sort of cohesion issue. The concern is that it means a lot of our guys have been banged up. Injuries are the only real worry.

And yes, Clout, last night's game definitely confirmed my belief that Howard would be the best bench hitter in the league. I think we've found a role for him in 2014 when he's making $25M and hitting .231.

found this poll interesting:

Which baseball team boasts the best rotation in the majors?

15% Tigers

72% Phillies

4% Brewers

2% Angels

3% Rays

4% Giants

tells me that 28% of people in the country are idiots. that's a lot less than i thought.

Was that just last year? It seems like more. Whatever. Anyone who thinks the combo of Halladay/Lee is better than Figueroa/Chen simply hasn't been paying attention. The '01 Phils ... now THAT was a team!

Wild guess: among the 28% who voted for the Tigers, Brewers, Angels, Rays & Giants, an overwhelming percentage is comprised of hardcore Tigers, Brewers, Angels, Rays or Giants fans.

Upon being reminded that Nick Punto was once with the Phillies, the Debbie Downer Club is calling an emergency meeting to vote whether or not to offer a membership to Drew.

We'll be back shortly.

BigOtto: Former Phillie updates have been a long-time staple of Beerleaguer. jw, himself, writes such posts several times each season.

BAP - probably. or they are idiots as i posted. considering 50% of the US population doesn't "believe" in evolution, the relatively small number surprises me!

Speaking of Kershaw... I'm reading he won't be suspended after his ejection. That's pretty ridiculous.

He threw at a guy... after being warned FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE... It was a clear pre-meditated incident. Not a heat of the moment during the game incident.

Just last season, Kershaw served 5 games after throwing at Aaron Rowand. His manager? Joe Torre.

Who handles discipline now for MLB? Joe Torre.

Ridiculous.

Guarantee if that was a Phillie involved in the incident... they would be suspended just for getting hit.

Ridiculous.

In other news, Victorino has been suspended 5 games for the incident.

also in other news, fangraphs created a stat to measure how rate walkoff hits and Ryan Howard's double last nite is the worst in MLB history.

5-game suspensions for starting pitchers are fairly ridiculous anyhow. In effect, all it does is push back a starter's turn by 1 day which, in most cases, doesn't even end up costing him any starts.

I watched the Kershaw pitch and it honestly didn't look like he was throwing at the guy.

And I don't believe there was an official warning given to the Dodgers before the game.

Hitting a guy by throwing a pitch not far off the inside corner? Seems more like he was crowding him than really trying to hit him. Much like Lee in the ninth inning giving that hitter a bowtie because he was lunging out over the plate.

Shoulda suspended Howard. He hasn't done anything for the team in over 12 hours now. Worthless POS ...

Does Momentum Matter?

Overall: .655%
Sept: .688%

Hopefully yes.

Love the ex-phillie updates. BTW did anyone see the vid of Michael Taylor getting gunned down at first base by Frenchy. When you've got one career base hit that's pretty damaging to your numbers.

Much like Lee in the ninth inning giving that hitter a bowtie because he was lunging out over the plate.

Brilliant pitch. Dude wanted no part of Lee after that. Just stood there looking like he'd seen his own ghost.

I always love the random minor league/overseas player updates on former Phils.

I'm not getting the Punto hatred. He can pay a decent defensive shortstop and posted a .767 OPS. People want to give Rollins 4 years and $50M for doing that. I'd be happy to give Punto 1 year and $2M to hold the place until Galvis is ready for The Show.

Bigotto: I enjoy and appreciate the ex-Phillie updates, for the record.

If I were at the plate and realized that Lee could put one in my eye socket with no issues, I'd be wary of the next pitch too.

In Schoenfield's apology to Phillies' fans, posted last thread, he mentions all the unexpected things that "went right" for the Phils this year. But he fails to mention the weirdest, most baffling fact (often mentioned on this board):

28-4 when Brian Schneider starts.

Or: 28-4 when Chooch doesn't start.

And that's mostly when Halladay-Hamels-Lee DON'T start. (What's our record when the Big 3 don't start?)

Re: Howard's walkoff. Were y'all so effusive after Minimart hit a three run homer to win a game? Because that was hit a lot harder than Howard's walk off double. And Mini Mart, as we all know, stinks beyond belief.

I don't think anyone has a problem with Howard being the Phillies' first baseman for the next few seasons. He's a very productive player. However, believing that 25 million per season for the next five or six years is too much to pay for his talents, is not an uncalled for conclusion.

Maybe Fielder and Pujols will sign for 35 million per season after the season. If that's the case, then Howard was likely a bargain. However, if they sign for similar dollars, especially the younger Fielder, then Howard was a pretty big overpay. Because Howard may be a slightly better fielder than Prince, but he is nowhere near the complete hitter Fielder is anymore.

I'll bet you that $2M that Punto doesn't post a .767 OPS next year, considering he did it this year in 114 AB, while his career line is .649 in 2582 ABs.

Punto doesn't bother me one bit. However, every day Bruce Chen remains in the Majors is an affront to human decency.

"No offense, but...who really GAS...?"

I think offense was intended. If not, I'd recommend a different rhetorical approach.

palychris: It kind of bugged me that the apology article said how, at least he was write that Ruiz was just a 1year wonder in 2010.

Chooch doesn't have a .400 OBP this year, but he's still at .373 which is pretty damn good.

palychris: It kind of bugged me that the apology article said how, at least he was write that Ruiz was just a 1year wonder in 2010.

Chooch doesn't have a .400 OBP this year, but he's still at .373 which is pretty damn good.

What's our record when the Big 3 don't start?

GS By Halladay/Lee/Hamels 62-27 (.697)

GS By All Others 35-24 (.593)

Keep in mind a .593 WP over a full season = 96 Wins. So Phillies' Pitching in general is very good, while the Big Three in particular are insanely good.

In case anybody didn't already know it ... MLB with another story on the greatness of the Braves' pen - http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110915&content_id=24749572&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

aksmith: Players are often paid for more than what they do on the field. Ryan Howard is a face of this franchise and is one of the most popular and marketable players in the game. The Phils obviously have the payroll room to absorb what they're paying him while fielding the best team in baseball... so why does it matter how much he makes?

That dominanting BP is the reason the Braves have cruised to a 6-9 (.400) record in September.

Don't forget Trevor Miller who was a disaster as a Phillie but is a respectable relief pitcher now.

In Howard's defense, those Venetian canals aren't cheap.

NEPP: Howard could save money by inviting Dom Brown to the site & lobbing some balls toward him. The resulting diving misplays would carve out world class canal beds in no time flat.

NEPP, I presume you'll keep us posted if/when you tip your buddy off on his lovely new bride?

"tells me that 28% of people in the country are idiots. that's a lot less than i thought."

I would have put it at 80%, so I agree.

Is Francouer still playing in the Majors? Interesting.

***I presume you'll keep us posted if/when you tip your buddy off on his lovely new bride?
***

I've decided to let it lie...I'm not good enough friends with him to waste my time. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the train wreck from afar.

To paraphrase Bigotto, who GAS about the Braves bullpen (besides the 67 or so Braves fans)?

It seemed pretty obvious that Kershaw threw at Parra on purpose, only because the night before he said he would.

Old Phan, to be fair, there's actually a couple Phillies fans who are also idiots. Shocking, I know! So, some of that 72% also doubles as idiots.

Luckily, none of them post here, though...

NEPP - then find the link and share with us. you've got our curiosity piqued.

WP, no question about it.

Speaking of phormer phillies:

Bobby Abreu stole his 21st base this year, marking the 13th straight season he has done so. That is the longest streak since Rickey Henderson's 23 straight.

Bobby Abreu sure as hell doesn't feel like a HOF player but his counting stats are starting to make a good argument for him.

I think he will end up in the Dwight Evans mystery spot in the end however.

yeah, lorecore, I had the same thought when I saw that about chooch. I actually had to reread the paragraph, because I thought I must have misread it.

lorecore,

"I'll bet you that $2M that Punto doesn't post a .767 OPS next year, considering he did it this year in 114 AB, while his career line is .649 in 2582 ABs."

I'll take his career OPS for $2 million and save the extra $10 million to have a real bullpen, rather than injury concerns with Bastardo and Contreras followed by mediocrities like Herndon and Stutes and a cast of rookies.

lorecore, Ruiz has a nice OBP, but he also had a ~.470 SLG last year, which is down below .400 this year. His OPS+ last year was 126, but is "only" 107 this year.

Again, he's having a VERY nice offensive season for a catcher known for his defense and ability to handle a pitching staff.

But he did regress from last year a good bit.

Well we have a new option for our 2012 shortstop. Along with Jason Bartlett, Marco Scutaro, Clint Barmes and Rafael Furcal, we can add Nick Punto to the list of options.

Badnews: Understand your argument, but heavily disagree.

I think the gap between reliever's performances in approx 60IP is no where near the gap between giving a .650 OPS player ~650PA in a season.

CJ - Indeed, the Phillies are able to field the best team in baseball this season, the year before his massive contract kicks in. Are you involved in the Phillies front office? I ask because you seem to know what their finances are going to be like in two, three, four and five years from now.

And how do you know the Phillies aren't squeezing the budget in other places to pay Howard? Could Schneider, Minimart, Herndon be a symptom of the Phillies not having room in the budget for both Hunter Pence and a Mike Adams or Heath Bell? How great would the pen look right now with one of those guys? Are you sure Howard's 20 mil this year and 25 mil next year aren't the reason neither of those guys ended up in Philly? Because you seem to know every detail of the Phils spending plans. Who gave you the info? Clout? Because he's sure there is no such thing as a budget for the Phillies.


aksmith: Players are often paid for more than what they do on the field. Ryan Howard is a face of this franchise and is one of the most popular and marketable players in the game. The Phils obviously have the payroll room to absorb what they're paying him while fielding the best team in baseball... so why does it matter how much he makes?

Posted by: CJ | Friday, September 16, 2011 at 12:42 PM

To be clear: If the Phillies have the money to pay the players they really want, then it makes zero difference what Howard makes. Glad to have him. But I suspect there is always a tradeoff. It's called the real world for a reason.

Howard's pay raise to $25 million doesn't kick in until 2014...FWIW.

He will still be making $20 million next year just like this year.

the handwringing about Schneider, Mini-Mart or whoever else at the back end of the roster is beyond ridiculous.

For most of the season, Charlie rides a 21 man roster (including starting pitching)...

In the playoffs it probably will be less.

That's what championship teams do. Amaro is leveraging his payroll in a handful of players, some like the pitching staff, perhaps the BEST players at their position. Without argument, unless you are in Detroit or Sf or wherever. That has provided an unprecendented level of success for this franchise.

Sure, the Valdez' and Mini-Mart's have accumulated 500 at bats and have been exposed. With little to no detriment on the overall sucess of the team.

This header post shows there are a ton of "marginal" major leaguers filling rosters of teams. Those "marginal" players can have success one year and drop off the ledge for the next two. Dobbs is a perfect example. And a guy like Punto, who has been a "servicable" major leaguer (and his 2011 stats show that he is better than nearly every bench infielder on our roster for sure) but I guarantee you, if beerleaguers had to see him for 300 at bats, they would declare that he sucks. The 23, 24, 25 guy on most rosters, suck. That's just how it is. Every year its the same hand wringing. You would think you'd get the pattern, after a while.

And sure having a Heath Bell or Mike Adams would be nice... but there were more than just "salary" implications for why they aren't here (in particular, lack of prospects, and the hope for the return of the injured staff are a couple)

On the top of last thread I think, JW said it was boring to talk about "greatness", since the percentages of posts of "greatness" is probably a third to the negative/critical posts, one might argue the opposite.

To be honest it would be nice change a pace to talk about the "greatness" of this team once in a while.

Hamm, don't you understand that talking about the greatness of the team means you aren't being objective?

There has been a lot of talk about how great this team was in the last thread that carried over into this one with some other things mixed in.

Halladay should be the slight frontrunner now for the Cy Young.

aksmith: The Phils spent more than enough money to build the greatest team in Philadelphia sports history. And they did that with an albatross of a contract at first base.

How ever will they manage in the future!?!?!? How will they manage next year when his contract goes up a whopping 0%!??! And then again the year after that when it goes up ANOTHER 0%?!?!

We're doomed. Doomed I tell you!!!

Er... that should say Philadelphia baseball history. I'm not sure it's the best in Philadelphia sports history. I'll wait for Old Phan or clout to weigh in on that.

lorecore,

"I think the gap between reliever's performances in approx 60IP is no where near the gap between giving a .650 OPS player ~650PA in a season."

I doubt that we will get anywhere near 650 PA out of Rollins if we give him the $12.5M. I am guessing around 250 of those PA will go to a player of Punto's caliber anyway due to injuries. Also $10M likely buys more than 1 reliever (likely a closer and a veteran set-up man, or around 125 high-leverage innings).

Alright, let's talk about the greatness of the Phillies.

Is this the best 1-2 pitching duo in history?

I think it is, or at least the most dominant 1-2 punch.

A pitcher can accrue over 200 IP in a season with 200+ SO and less than 50 walks, while maintaining a sub-3 ERA is rare. Only happened like 15 times in baseball history. Never happened twice on the same team. The Phillies have 2 guys who are going to blow even those numbers out of the water.

Let's get really stringent on the restrictions:

230+ IP
220+ SO
<45 BB
sub-2.5 ERA

This has only been done by 3 guys in history.

Christy Mathewson
Walter Johnson
Juan Marichal

The Phillies will likely have 2 guys do it in the same year.

Ridiculous.

CJ, it's best in the history of all sports.

Old Phan: Thank you. :-)

From the "What if the Mets Wrote the Rulebook" Department, we get this stat from Jayson Stark:

One of today's 5 Astounding Facts: If all games ended after 8 innings, #Cardinals would lead #Brewers by 4 1/2 games

If you change the ERA restriction to ERA+ and set it at a minimum of 163 (Lee's current ERA+, lower than Doc's 166), you can add one more pitcher to that list:

Randy Johnson

That's it.

***Is this the best 1-2 pitching duo in history?***

No, Schilling/Johnson was better.

For those of you bemoaning Howard's huge contract, what result do you want as a result of your complaining? Do you want Howard traded? Do you want Amaro fired? Do you think your complaints will light a fire underneath him, causing an improvement in performance?

I understand that this is a Phillies blog, so discussion about his contract is pertinent. But why waste so much energy on something that will not change?

For instance, I understand the discussion "should we re-sign Rollins or look for another shortstop" because action has yet to be taken. Speculation on what should be done is interesting and thought provoking. But once that decision has been made and implemented, will you continue to debate it?

I'm not trolling here. I'm not picking a fight. I'm trying to understand why you want to keep discussing something that won't change no matter how much you want it to change.

If I spent so much time thinking about something I disagreed with AND had no chance of changing AND I had no power over, I'd get acid reflux, migraines, and the gout.

2001 DBacks Pitching WAR:

Johnson: 10.7
Schilling: 7.6

2011 Phillies Pitching WAR:
Halladay: 8.1
Lee: 6.5

There are a bunch of other ways to show that Johnson/Schilling were better too that dont rely on WAR. Of course, our #3 is far better than the DBacks 3rd option.

Addendum: my father always says, "A bitching soldier is a happy soldier."

So maybe discussing the Howard contract makes you happy. If that's the case, carry on.

As for SO/BB:

Schilling: 293 SO, 39 BB, 7.51 SO/BB
Johnson: 372 SO, 71 BB, 5.24 SO/BB

ERA+
Schilling: 157
Johnson: 188

Matching the 2001/2002 combination of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling will be awfully tough for anyone to do. Of course, neither of those teams had much of a 3rd starter let alone a 4th or 5th starter.

Koufax and Drysdale were a pretty sick combo in 1964, but Drysdale wasn't much better than league average in 63 and 65.

I loved watching Marichal pitch, but what I didn't remember was that he didn't always use the patented leg kick.

KF, no gout about it.

Kutztown Fan: 100% agree. Although... I was plenty guilty of the same thing during the Pedro Feliz years. Of course, I think letting him go at any point was a perfectly reasonable action!

Those 372 SO by Johnson are laughable.

How?

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