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Wednesday, September 14, 2011

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Sinking feeling about today's game, even with Doc on the mound. Phils haven't been swept in a 3 game series all year, but I feel like today is the day it happens. And to some guy named Bud, too.

Wondering if the release of the schedule suggests that the Lords of Baseball are not looking at realignment for 2012.

Sucks that I have to wait until the end of June to get a look at the new Marlins stadium. On the other hand, with the second to last series of the year in Miami, there's a chance I could see a clinching game.

At least the weather won't be an issue. And no, I have no interest in seeing the Marlins host another team.

I imagine the realignment and playoff changes will be discussed when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires.

I imagine the schedule being released today means not realignment or playoff expansion. Certainly realignment.

This should be required reading for people who think signing veterans and forfeiting draft picks and prospects is a sustainable route to long-term success:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6967153/rock-bottom-h-town

The 2012 schedule sucks. Another weekend Phillies series in Houston. I spend my weekends in Louisiana. I guess I can catch the Thursday night series opener on Sept. 13th. Not that I have "enjoyed" the first two games of this Monday through Wednesday series.

Well, I'm signing off, turning off the work computer, picking up my wife, putting on my Ryan Howard Phillies shirt and my Bahamas Phillies Cap (My 2008 WFC Cap in honor of Cole did not work last night!), then heading off to Minute Maid to eat overpriced ballpark crap for lunch. More postings tomorrow.

Bummer - Phils play out in Pittsburgh out in April. I enjoyed going out there in July during the '09 season. Would have gone out again this summer if not for work schedule.

Road trip excuse - Weekend series vs. O's in Baltimore. Haven't been to Camden Yards in a long time & this is a good reason too.

LF - Hopefully you and the wife see at least one semi-interesting game. Gotten 2 dudes.

@Jack and others: In the link you provide there is also an article about the author's contention that the Phillies' formula for current and near-term success is not sustainable down the road. Essentially, it's somewhat similar to the article you cited: in this case, depleting the farm system for ace arms and being totally devoid (with the exception of Dom Brown) of position players. Furthermore, tying up the budget with expensive and long-term contracts for players who may not merit the sums they're getting as their contract periods mature, shall we say (Ryan Howard, for example).

Somehow, I believe they're savvy enough to figure it all out. I also don't think that the fan base, which has been so supportive, would allow management to fudge up the works.

Who knows? Per AR, we shall see.

Time will tell, of course, but I contend that somehow, someway, fading ar

Don't know how that last partial sentence showed up, but please disregard.

The results of today's game should decide whether or not Lake Fred is allowed to go to another Phillies' game in Houston.

for some reason, I am more intrigued about Lake Fred's series visit in Houston than I am any other time a poster says they are going to a road game.

mainerob - Here is a list of the Phils' 1st round picks the last decade:

2001 - Floyd
2002 - Hamels
2003 - None
2004 - Golson
2005 - None
2006 - Drabek, Cardenas
2007 - Savery, d'Arnuad
2008 - Hewitt, Collier
2009 - None
2010 - Biddle
2011 - Greene

That is a decade of a lot of crap for the most part. Understand the 1st round isn't the 'end all be all' of the draft but article makes a decent point.

decade of crap? Hamels is an ace, Floyd is a legit MLB starter, Cardenas was flipped for Blanton, Drabek and dArnuad hauled in Halladay, and if they desired - Biddle is regarded high enough to be the center peice in a ton of deals.

Lets see, Floyd is a solid #3, Hamels is an Ace, Drabek got us an Ace, Cardenas got us a #4 pitcher, d'Arnaud was just named AA player of the year, Biddle is a top prospect and Greene hasn't played yet so we have no idea.

Hewitt, Collier, Golson (who at least got us a LF) and Savery were busts. And Savery will probably have a chance as a LH reliever next year.

The only major guy that sucked in those picks was that "None" guy that we drafted and then redrafted and then reredrafted. I dont even think he's in our system at this point.

I thought "None" filled in as our utility inf this year.

By Comparison, Yankees 1st rounders since 2000:

2000: David Parrish
2001: John-Ford Grifin, Bronson Sardinha, Jon Skaggs
2002: None
2003: Eric Duncan
2004: Phils Hughes
2005: Carl Henry
2006: Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain
2007: Andrew Brackman
2008: Gerrit Cole, Jeremy Bleich
2009: Slade Hethcott
2010: Cito sulver
2011: Dante BIchete, Jr.

Hamels and Floyd alone are better than Kennedy/Hughes(to this point at least), and other than Joba they have 0 other MLB talent to show for. Andrew Brackman is considered a decentprospect(overhyped 25yr old in my opinion). So many more misses here.

If Bronson Sardinha is in any way related to Dane Sardinha, the Yankees win hands down.

"He has two brothers who also play professional baseball. Dane Sardinha plays for the Philadelphia Phillies and Duke Sardinha plays in the Colorado Rockies farm system. Sardinha was named after actor Charles Bronson.[citation needed]"

I should have omitted Hamels/Floyd. Good points though about Drabek/d'Naurd netting the Phils Halladay.

Once again, the Phillies get the wrong brother.

Dane, Duke, and Bronson - destined for success.

"Dane, Duke, and Bronson - destined for success."

Or for the bar. Coin flip.

"Dane, Duke and Bronson-coming to USA Network this fall!"

Since 2000, the BoSox (who spend about quadruple what we spend on the draft) have nabbed Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Bucholtz, Jed Lowrie, Daniel Bard, David Murphy and Matt Murton in the draft (players that have positive WAR values per B-R.com) They have also drafted 18 other guys that either haven't panned out or its still way too early to tell on in the 1st round.

That's 1st round only for the BoSox post if I wasn't specific enough. They have obviously hit on several other guys in later rounds as well...just as we have.

That's an impressive list for the BoSox.

If you include their 2nd round picks since 2000, you can include Pedroia, Lester, Masterson, Delcarmen, and Shoppach.

5 Major Leaguers in 14 picks...(which of course is skewed by not being able to really judge picks newer than 08 to pres)

Martinez & Orr again today. Expect the same pitiful display of fielding ineptitude we've been seeing.


The results of today's game should decide whether or not Lake Fred is allowed to go to another Phillies' game in Houston.

Posted by: Jbird
______

For real.

The Phillies are coming to Minneapolis! Oh Happy Day(s)!

The last time the BoSox hit on a 7th round pick was 1976...Wade Boggs.


Papelbon is the only 4th round pick they hit on in recent memory. Mike Maroth was a 4th rounder by them that made it too though.

3rd round has nothing for them since 2000.

5th and 6th are similarly empty.

The success rate for drafts drops off significantly at around pick #15 overall and again after pick #30. It pretty much free falls afther the 2nd round with very very few guys overall making it (like 1% overall I think).

Baseball is, by far, the hardest support to draft talent in.

The last time the BoSox hit on a 7th round pick was 1976...Wade Boggs.


Papelbon is the only 4th round pick they hit on in recent memory. Mike Maroth was a 4th rounder by them that made it too though.

3rd round has nothing for them since 2000.

5th and 6th are similarly empty.

The success rate for drafts drops off significantly at around pick #15 overall and again after pick #30. It pretty much free falls afther the 2nd round with very very few guys overall making it (like 1% overall I think).

Baseball is, by far, the hardest sport to draft talent in.

Too much time to find the team with the worst 1st round picks since 2000, but the Astros are likley right there and prove the article's point pretty well:

2000: Robert Steihl
2001: Chris Burke
2002: Derick Grigsby
2003: None
2004: None
2005: Brian Bogusevic, Eli Long
2006: Maxwell Sapp
2007: None
2008: Jason Castro, Jordan Lyles
2009: Jiovanni Mier
2010: Delino DeShields, Jr., Mike Foltynewicz,
2011: George spinger

Lyles' top50 prospect ranking is about as good as it gets on this list, altho his rookie year isn't going so hot.

The Phillies rarely lose 4 in a row, and even more rarely are swept by a bottom dweller. Halladay on the mound. This one feels like an absolute certain win.

Translation: absolute certain win=probable loss.

What about little known cousin Balki Sardinha?

Have a nice afternoon and bring 'em to the finish line, Lake Fred!

I think it's safe to say that everyone has periods of time in their job where they essentially "mail it in" because it's a slow period, or they're not challenged or whatever.

That was pretty evident last night with Hamels. I remarked, at the time to my buddy, that his not covering 1B on Happ's infield hit was all on his laziness. Though, I don't know that he should have corroborated my assumption with his comment after the game.

I don't fault him for mailing it in. We all do from time to time. I do fault him for publicly admitting he was mailing it in.

***I think it's safe to say that everyone has periods of time in their job where they essentially "mail it in" because it's a slow period, or they're not challenged or whatever.***

I call those days "week" days.

The Houston story only shows why you don't hire Ed Wade.

Also, the Phils run of success the past few years and hopefully a few more can't be sustained, it will end eventually so why can't people enjoy it while it lasts instead of spreading doom stories. Yes, we'll be cheering for a loser in the future, that's how sports goes and probably should be.

I wouldn't put the burden all on Hamels. The entire team is responsible, and I'm fine with it. No days off, doubleheaders coming up, it's OK to not kill yourself against the Astros. It would have been fun if they won all of their remaining games, but that wasn't going to happen. Toss the 'Stros a bone. It's the least they could do for Ed Wade.

Charles Bronson wasnt even named Charles Bronson

Patsy,100% right.
We are witnessing arguably the best team in Phillies history. Why worry about what happens in 2016?

2016 Season = Over.

old phan: eventually in the next 20 years, the Phils win have a losing season. And when they do... I TOLD YOU SO! - the ultimate internet blog satisfaction.

Braves being 2-hit right now. It's the 7th and they are already dipping into their BP.

WP: I think the midday traffic on a forum like Beerleaguer serves as evidence that everyone "mails it in" at work on occasion.

Who would you draft: Delino DeShields JR or Dante Bichette JR? When is Kevin Jordan or Ricki Otero JR going to be ready?

DH Phils/OP, Like I said, I don't fault anyone for being human and mailing it in. It was pretty obvious that's what Cole was doing last night (and what I'm doing posting this and queueing up the mlb.tv stream for the next couple hours).

You just hate to hear these guys admit it. I just hope I never hear it from the likes of Pete Orr. We need him to be gritty, and give 110% every day.

The Mets should draft Bobby Bonilla, Jr. and try to use his dad's remaining salary as a negotiation tactic.

RG, does Delino DeShields Jr wear the high socks like his pops? If so, it's a no brainer. I'm a sucker for the high socks.

Old Phan: I actually find it interesting what might happen to the Phillies beyond 2011. Sorry.

Hexi - Meepos is a hotbed for future major leaguers. and goat herders.

But yeah, you're right. We should have a ban on talking about the future, when there's more interesting conversations to have about Pete Orr. Understood.

Preacher: Quite frankly, I wish Orr would tone it down some. He's a friggin' menace.

Pete Orr the 3rd = HOF 2087

Pete Orr is the Phillies version of Terrell Owens.

I can't stand Rany Jazayerli. Following the Royals has sucked all the joy out of that guy. Given that, I find it amusing that he considers possible periods of 2-3 sub-500 seasons to be "falling off a cliff" instead of "rebuilding." I guess he considers that too high a price to ever seriously contend.

"Manager Charlie Manuel said Victorino is just getting a normal day off. Manuel has rested several regulars lately. Placido Polanco did not start on Monday night. Ryan Howard got a couple of days off earlier in the trip in Milwaukee.

Manuel reasoned that he wanted to get John Mayberry Jr. some at-bats while also resting Victorino. It made sense, Manuel said, to get Mayberry those at-bats against a lefty. The Phils face former teammate J.A. Happ. Cole Hamels is on the mound for the Phils."

Of course he managed to insert Vic into the middle of the game down 4 runs at the time.

http://www.csnphilly.com/blog/phillies-talk/post/Manuel-explains-Shanes-night-off?blockID=563466&feedID=10156

So is this the Game Chat or what? I need to know where to direct my inevitable disgust.

Phils run differential when BL doesn't post a game thread: +1

The first "Nissan Key to the Game" is (& I quote) "Play Better". Now that's some damn shrewd analysis.

GTown, I actually heard that several members of the team thought that "getting a win" was a good approach to take to today's game. Personally, I thought that was a genius approach.

Should I be happy that the Phillies scored a run or should I be p*ssed that they stranded Polanco after he reached 2nd with no outs? I vote for the latter option.

Proof: "@JimmyRollins11: Last day in Houston! Let's get the W and go home."


Someone text Lake Fred and let him know about all those empty seats on the first level right behind home plate. A good upgrade opportunity.

Preacher: That fits right in w/ Charlie Manuel's Comprehensive Theory of Major League Hitting: "Swing!"

Nice play, MM.

Who posted about the Braves being 2 hit? That jinx helped them score 4 runs.

Phils are 0-2 when post-DL stint Jimmy starts.

Kutztown: I know. Figures.

This start is a little more like it. Let's keep the heat on this game, guys!

I try to think of Martinez as a Make-A-Wish kid getting a chance to live out his ultimate dream. It doesn't really help.

Remember when Mini-Mart was hitting .240-ish & the organizational apologists were ridiculing those who believed his presence on the roster was insane?

Mini Mart is a brisk .152 hitter for the month of Sept now.

If you gave Mini Mart 600 PA, he'd theoretically drive in 75 RBI based on his current numbers.


How ridiculous is that?

wtf bighead, i was really feeling a perfecto today.

NEPP, he probably just needs some more AB's.

Oh, wait....

They're just not sharp this week.

I hope Utley was advised to not watch this series. This is more liable to give him a headache than that fastball to the melon.

wtf halladay, I was really feeling a no-no today.

WTF is going on with this team?!

And here's where Doc's Cy Young bid comes up short. I predict 14 ER in 3 IP today.

Well, those 2 AB or so of focused, motivated Phillies baseball were fun. Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Nice play, Polly. I like that out better than the 5-4-3 double play attempt.

That was awesome.

Polly has made up for the E. Great heads up defense that inning to get Doc out of a jam.

Yea, that was terrible.

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