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Sunday, August 28, 2011


Mike Drago says, "I must break you"

Seriously, for a brief week, I though Savery was the next Albert Pujols. Maybe he has a future in the pen. I wouldn't mind seeing him come up for some frames in September.

Consistency of argument.

A. Verlander should be in the AL MVP discussion because he's racking up the wins.
B. WAR is a better measure of performance than wins.
C. Verlander is third in the AL in WAR.
D. Halladay is first in the NL in WAR.
E. Therefore, Halladay is a more serious candidate for NL MVP than Verlander is for AL MVP.

A new thread? Come on, we were just about to hear about the Hollywood, TV, internet pro-homosexuality agenda/conspiracy. Maybe next rain delay.

derek, I'm not a fan of wins for pitchers, so if I sounded like I was making the case that Verlander should win MVP because of that, I'm sorry.

But Verlander has been about as important to the Tigers as any player in baseball is to their respective team, and when I think of Most Valuable Player, I think of which player brings the most value to their team (aka, which team would be nigh irretrievably lost without said player). I don't think any team fits the bill for that more than the Tigers and Justin Verlander, at least in the AL.

And while I'm not a fan of pitcher wins, I'm not stupid enought o understand that racking up 20 wins before September rolls around is a huge deal. The guy has been a beast, going 6 IP or more in every start this year, and, before yesterday, having gone 7 IP or more in every start since May 24. He has a no-hitter and has taken no-hit bids deep into a couple other games.

He's given up 3 ER or less in 25 of his 29 starts. In the other 4, he's given up 4 runs thrice and 6 runs once. 16 starts have yielded 2 ER or less. That works out to a couple mediocre starts and one bad start. Everything else has been terrific.

He's been the most consistently dominant player in the American League this year, and he should win the MVP if he has a strong September.

Fat - Just a little tease. However, if you look at career wins and career WAR for pitchers, you will find a very high correlation between the two stats for the top pitchers in baseball history. Career wins is not a bad stat at all and, in fact, is a good shorthand way to describe top pitchers.

Pitchers have their own award, so I generally feel like they shouldn't get MVP unless they just have an absolutely transcendent season. We'll see what happens the rest of the way but, as of now, Verlander is definitely having the kind of season that should put him in the MVP discussion -- if not make him the favorite.

The Tigers are considerably weaker than the rest of the AL playoff teams, and they may well be the weakest all-around team in contention. But Verlander, alone, gives them a fighting chance to do some major post-season damage.

I cannot believe I missed last night's fiasco. I hope everybody is reasonably safe and dry.

Halladay in 26 games:
189.2 IP, 8.64 K/9, 1.09 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, .311 BABIP, 51.4% GB, 2.56 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 6.9 WAR

Verlander in 29 games:
215.2 IP, 9.10 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, .236 BABIP, 40.4% GB, 2.38 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 6.2 WAR

Verlander has slightly better results (ie, ERA) thanks to a much lower BABIP. But Halladay walks half as many, gives up less home runs, and gets many more ground balls at the cost of about half a strikeout per nine. I'd say Halladay is having the better season...and there's no one in the NL having the sort of season that Bautista is.


Cy Young Award: Given to the best pitcher in each league

Hank Aaron Award: Given to the best hitter in each league

MVP: (should be) given to the most valuable player in each league, regardless of whether they are a pitcher or hitter

That's just my opinion, but both pitchers and hitters have their "own" award.

Going to be interesting to see if the Phils choose to go the 'youth' route next year in the bullpen to fill out most of the pen.

Haven't done that since Amaro became the GM. Only veteran signed is Contreras at $2.5M and no idea what he will give them next season at this point. Buy out Lidge & his give him $1.5M to be on his way.

Given that they have already committed $113M to just 9 players next year, they will have to go 'cheap' with several roster spots. Figure they will sign a veteran closer whether they are able to resign Madson or go with another veteran FA option. Bastardo is a certainty. Herndon another. Probably Stutes too after this season.

I would imagine that they would try to sign one more established veteran arm though. Fill out the last 1-2 spots internally. Be stunned if they just handed over the closer role to Bastardo. Likely get strong opposition from Cholly. Can't imagine that Amaro would be crazy either going with an unproven closer & a guy who is putting together his first professional season without visiting the DL.

You have a bullpen that might look like:

Madson or veteran FA closer
veteran FA
2 internal options from the likes of Stutes, Schwimmer, De Fratus, Aumont, etc

Julio Rodriguez is a righthander.

Curious to see if they give Savery a September call up.

Zach, I agree that some of Verlander's peripherals appear unsustainable, but I think the BBWAA awards should be given based on results, not on who's projected to be better going forward.

Bautista is having a fantastic season, but I still think Verlander is more valuable to his team.

Fat: Fair enough, but does anyone even know who won the Hank Aaron Award last year? I'll be honest: until your post, I didn't know such an award even existed.

A's DFA Jerry Blevins. If we sign him, he has to be called the Geator

BAP, it's only been in existence since 1999, and it certainly doesn't carry as much weight or fanfare as the CY award, but hitters also have Silver Sluggers.

Votto and Bautista won last year, by the way.

My colleague Willie had higher sales than me this year.
But I had a much higher 'call-back percentage', and a slightly higher 'courtesy ratio'. So I think that I deserve a bigger raise than Willie.

lol gobaystars...I'm done, really. Even during the next rain delay.

re: Verlander. Runs the Tigers have scored in the 22 games he started that the team won:

2 runs once
3 runs 3 times
4 runs 4 times
5 runs 3 times
6 runs 3 times
7 runs 3 times
9 runs 4 times

Couldn't we expect a reasonable pitcher to win all of the 6,7,and 9 run support games? And say, just under half of the 4 and 5 run games (3 out of 7)? That leaves at most 8 games where Verlander's excellence has made a demonstrable difference in the outcome; more likely we could expect another pitcher to win a few of those 8 games. So his team has won 4 or 5 extra games because of him...not sure that meets the exceptional criteria for pitcher as MVP.

Doc's Run Support:

10+ Runs: 3
8 Runs: 1
7 Runs: 3
5 Runs: 7

So we should expect a good pitcher to have 14 wins right there...out of his 15 wins.

So really, Doc, despite fantastic run support, isn't really racking up the wins like he should.

My next rock group is going to be named Drago Poll

The argument that Verlander should win because he is the "most valuable to his team" is a little ridiculous. In that case, Sabathia should win given where the Yankees rotation would be without him.

The "most valuable to his team" line of argument is sort of a slippery slope, in that: (1) it could be applied to lots of players; and (2) it would eliminate anyone who had the good fortune of playing on a stacked team (Vic springs immediately to mind).

Nonetheless, just because a line of logic could potentially be taken too far does not mean it's invalid when not taken too far. I think it's fair to say that, besides being better, Verlander is also of a lot more importance to Detroit than Sabathia is to NY. That certainly shouldn't be the only criterion on which to pick an MVP, but it's not insignificant.

Whitey's my MVP.

Thankfully the rosters expand in September and some extra players can be brought up.

Likely Call-ups & Activated:
1. Joe Blanton
2. Drew Carpenter
3. Jimmy Rollins
4. Scott Mathieson
5. Juan Perez
6. Mike Zagurski
7. Domonic Brown
8. Mike Zagurski

1. Justin De Fratus
2. Freddy Galvis
3. Carlos Rivero
4. Eric Kratz


Blanton is trying to come back in September in the bullpen. He had an "encouraging" throwing session the other day.

Joe Blanton took another step toward a possible return to the bullpen before Friday's game against the Marlins.

The Phillies pitcher threw 15 pitches with the catcher on the plate, and another 15 from the full distance. Blanton is scheduled to throw another bullpen session Tuesday in Cincinnati.

"I felt really good today," he said. "I was really encouraged."

Definitely, zagurski gets two spots

They will get other off days due to rain and if the games don't mean anything, they won't be played.

Not sure Carpenter gets the automatic call up in September, but maybe. Not sure about Zags either. Wouldn't be surprised if their ships have sailed.

"Likely Call-ups & Activated:

1. Joe Blanton
2. Drew Carpenter

. . .

4. Scott Mathieson
5. Juan Perez
6. Mike Zagurski
7. Domonic Brown
8. Mike Zagurski"

I was starting to get worried that we might blow this lead but, after reading that list, I'm suddenly brimming with confidence.

I've always felt like there's no downside in calling up a bunch of guys, since you never know when you'll have a 16-inning game in which you need 7 pinch hitters and 9 pitchers.

But the only call-ups I could actually see being meaningfully helpful are Galvis, Kratz, Brown, and maybe Moss. But I fear that we may see Sardinha instead of Kratz.

Well, Dave Bush too. I think he'll somehow find his way onto the roster. He's not on the 40-man roster but, considering some of the garbage that's on the 40-man, that's a problem that can be easily remedied.

on prior thread--

'the Reading Phillies have a RH LF named Spidale... he's been doing pretty well in Reading for the past 2-3 yrs - hitting over 300--- wonder why he is not being considered for the expanded roster?

Posted by: mal-vern | Saturday, August 27, 2011 at 11:07 PM'


Iron Pigs regular season ends Sept 5th (Labor Day) but I wonder if they will leave him down there for the playoffs to get more regular ABs.


He hasn't been that great in his rehab appearances. I would rather the Phils just deactivate him for the year. Can't imagine he helps this team out of the bullpen in the playoffs.

Has Blanton actually had rehab appearanes, or are you referring to his "throwing off a mound" sessions?

"or are you referring to his "throwing off a mound" sessions?"
Throwing off a mound of what, fudge?

I understand why they cancelled tonight's game in advance, and I have no problem with it.

Unfortunately, they could have easily gotten this game in tonight.

Local radar says 0% chance of rain tonight between 7pm and midnight. Little windy, but definitely could've played some baseball tonight.

Cosart who?

You would "understand" it, you pervert accepter! (this has been sarcasm)

Have TPTB come out and said "Feel free to start driving around as usual" in Philadelphia area?

It's possible they couldn't schedule the game at night because of espn rules

Fata: Travel is still going to be terrible and there are a ton of roads still unable to be traveled on in that area and in the surrounding communities that people would travel through to get there.

The cancellation had nothing to do with the premise of rain but rather with the destruction that was expected. Destruction that has happened in places.

DOM better be called up by the 31st, or Gload to the DL sometime in Sept to get him on postseason roster.

Doesn't he just have to be in the system on August 31st?

yeah brown doesn't have to be called up by the 31st. he's already in the system. it would be someone who isn't in the system that has to be on the roster by the 31st. amaro said that straight up

BB - Your right. Blanton has just throw pitches off the mound. He hasn't faced live action yet.

Guess the question is do the Phils think they are better off with Blanton as a long reliever than KK in the playoffs.

If Blanton is healthy, he is a better pitcher than KK but I wonder if he will be 100% when he returns. Also figure that even if Blanton returns say the 2nd week of Sept that he will be used sparingly & see only a few outings before the end of the year.

Better to go with the 'devil you know' I guess.

Big Joe B. misses virtually the whole season with a 'mysterious' elbow issue, and now once playoffs come around, he wants to be a part of the last few weeks after throwing bullpen sessions. How brazen!

Verlander. Enough said.

Astros lost again today and now are on pace to lose 110 games. Phils get another crack at them Sept 12-14 in Houston.

MG: Astros are going to extra innings.

and they are winning. lol

Anyone in the system on 8/31 can replace anyone on the DL on the postseason roster. Brown or anyone else can replace Contreras. If the Phillies wanted to give themselves even more flexibility, they could call up Drew Naylor and/or Harold Garcia and put them on the 60-day DL.

Brewers just refuse to lose these days. This is pretty crazy.

And they have 8 more losses than the Phillies, but yet they have just two less wins.

In other words, Phillies have a good amount of games to make up.

Bad posting day for MG

Re: Milwaukee

The Marlins have been awful for months now, losing to them is a near disgrace, yet there are 2 teams that the Brewers get to play 15 times a year each that are worse than the Marlins.

20% of their schedule is the Cubs and Astros. And they're 10-2 vs the Pirates.

They're 7 games over .500 outside the NL Central. Phils are 27 games over .500 vs non-Central teams.

i'm not convinced the brewers could beat atlanta in the 1st round anyway unless hansen is truly out for the year.

"If the Phillies wanted to give themselves even more flexibility, they could call up Drew Naylor and/or Harold Garcia and put them on the 60-day DL."

Which is what you will probably see happen. Along with putting Big Truck on the 60 day as well.

The Phils need three 40 man spots open for September. One for the 3rd catcher (which HAS to be Kratz and not .130 hitting Sardinha). And likely one for a position player (possibly Moss) and one for a pitcher (either Aumont or Savery).

I think the other callups (all on the 40 man) will be pretty easy. Orr, Brown, Galvis, DeFratus, Mathieson and either Zagurski or Perez (likely Perez, even though he has been awful in the past few weeks).

I would be surprised if we see Carpenter again. I don't see what he offers. At least Mathieson can give you some innings (or even start a game) late in the year in garbage time. Carpenter is behind Schwimer, DeFratus, Aumont and probably Zagurski, Perez and Savery as well on bullpen chart of helpful major league pitchers. The three young righties all have better stuff then him and are legit prospects for 2012 and beyond here. Carpenter is probably at the end of the road in this org.

With no off-days,and 2 DH,they will need plenty of pitchers for the garbage innings. I think their main decision will be the choice between KK starting the DH's,or staying in long relief.

That post game buffet,with Blanton,Zagurski,and all the other call-ups,could be UTube worthy.

I think Dom only needs 2 more days on the 25 man roster to have enough time to count as a full year. I'm wondering if the Phils keep him down to prevent that from happening. This would keep him under team control for another year.

Why the hell did Sciosca leave Weaver in at over 100 pitches after 6 innings of 4 run ball, when Weaver is on 3 days rest?

Just poor managing.

We can talk about Verlander as a viable MVP, but no one believes the traditionalist voters will pick a pitcher over a hitter like Bautista or even Granderson these days unless one of the holy triumvirate records are broken (Wins, K's, ERA).

My vote goes to John Lackey.

I miss baseball.

My colleague Willie had higher sales than me this year.
But I had a much higher 'call-back percentage', and a slightly higher 'courtesy ratio'. So I think that I deserve a bigger raise than Willie.

Bad analogy. Willie's store had higher sales during the hours he works than your store during the hours you worked. Both of you work with 8 other employees at a time.

This has been ten times worse than the all-star break.

Atrain: "I think Dom only needs 2 more days on the 25 man roster to have enough time to count as a full year. I'm wondering if the Phils keep him down to prevent that from happening. This would keep him under team control for another year."

Did not know that. If that is true, then f you DOM, wait until the last day of season.

I'm selling tickets to the re-scheduled Aug 14 and Aug 27 games, which are now day games on Aug 20 and Aug 15. Section 202. Anyone interested?

"Just poor managing."

Is this in reference to the magical 100 pitch mark? If you want to say he was tiring and wasn't sharp, there's probably some truth to the latter. Weaver regularly throws 110-120 pitches. He's his best pitcher, facing the top of a tough lineup in a big divisional game, clinging to a one run lead. I fail to see how sticking with your best pitcher and trying to get to the back of the bullpen is 'poor managing.' That's what I'd have done.

Looking forward to watching the team play some full games without rain delays and multiple days without baseball. A little gnome goes a long, long way.

OTOH, I hate to see the issue of how to rest which player on which day become an overarching theme for the rest of the year. But, the schedule is what it is.

Hugh, of all the hits Weaver gave up yesterday, all were extra base hits, including a couple homers. He walked 4 batters, and from the beginning, he looked like he had very little control. He got through 6 innings, but I was shocked that he was even able to pull that off. He clearly had very little last night, and it was over 100 degrees in the ballpark last night. I'm not an advocate of the "magical 100 pitch mark", but it's a fair enough barometer.

Given his struggles that day, the fact that he was pitching on 3 days rest for the first time in his career, and that the top of lineup of the 3rd best offense in the majors was coming up, I think the smart move was to go to one of your back end pitchers in the 7th to get through the mdidle of the order, go to a weaker pitcher in the 8th to get through the bottom of the order, and bring in your closer in the 9th, assuming the Rangers don't score.

Weaver, of course, promptly put the first three batters he faced on the bases, and surrendered the lead.

I just think it could have been handled much better.

"I'm selling tickets to the re-scheduled Aug 14 and Aug 27 games, which are now day games on Aug 20 and Aug 15. Section 202. Anyone interested?"

You are aware that all of those dates have passed, yes?

Kutz: So Saturday's original night game tickets are now used for Sept 15th @ 2:35pm and Sunday's are for the 7:35pm?

Thats rough - two night games(1 on a sat) turn into 2 midweek day games.

nevermind, i was wrong, from Phils website:

the game originally scheduled for Sunday, Aug. 28 (game No. 71), will be the 2:35 p.m. opener of the Sept. 15 twin bill, while the game originally scheduled for Saturday, Aug. 27 (game No. 70) will be the 7:35 p.m. nightcap.

Fatti - I appreciate it wasn't black / white. I'd respect Scoscia if he brought his best guy in in the 7th; I'm assuming he wouldn't. Certainly, the result wasn't good and I agree, Weaver was not working with his best stuff and got hurt starting the inning leading with his off-speed pitches. Still, 3 scoreless frames through 6 is what I was looking at. Most managers are giving the ball to their ace and saying it's your game to lose in the 7th.

Yes! Just got great seats to see the Phils on Aug 1-3 games and August 19th!!!

Have Larry ranked #2 all-time at 2B. It is arguable. It is funny to read though the comments from some Braves' homers though that Schmidt should be ranked lower than Chipper because of his .267 career average and Larry's production late his career.

Kind of overlooks that fact that Schmidt was still an elite player at age 37 (including win his last MVP at 36), Schmidt's best years were better than Larry's, and that Schmidt has nearly 100 more career HRs.

Aug 14 and Aug 27 games are both rescheduled for Sept. I had tickets to both too and sold them. Either gamble going the EBay route or using Stubhub & letting them take a 15% cut.

Bob, at this point, with all the dings to the players (groins [Rollins, Raul, Chooch], hands [Howie], knees [Utley], shoulders [Hamels], hernia [Polly}, etc., it's imperative for Charlie to get this team to October in one piece - that is, healthy.

They have an 8 games lead in the loss column for the division, and an 8 game lead in the loss column over the Brewers, both of who have played more games than the Phillies - and thus have less games with which to make up the losses....and that's only possible IF the Phillies lose.

If the Phillies win 16 of their last 33 [.485], the Braves need to go 20 - 9 [.690] and the Brewers need to go 18 - 9 [.667] just to tie.

But if the Phillies can go 19 - 14[.576], the Braves need to go 23 - 6 and the Brewers 21 - 6 just to tie. If the Phillies continue to play as well as they have - say 22 - 11 [.667] the rest of the season, the Braves and Brewers need to go 26 - 3 and 24 - 3, respectively.

Are the Braves capable of doing that, and can the Brewers stay hot for THAT long? IMHO, no, but's baseball.

So, the Phillies are sitting pretty, because in a way the cancelled games worked to their benefit, as the biggest threat to the best record in the NL played and won, but didn't make up any ground in the loss column - which is really what matters.

The Braves have lost 2 of their last 3, helping the Phils sit comfortably atop the division.

In a nutshell, Charlie is going to have the opportunity to rest some guys, and should, at the same time keeping guys sharp for the playoffs.

Oh, and in case you didn't check it, the Phillies have a 17 game lead over SanFran in the Wild Card loss column.

If the Phillies go 16 - 17 the rest of the way and somehow the Braves go 21 - 8 and win the division, San Francisco must go 28 - 0 the rest of the season just to tie for the Wild Card.

While it's mathematically possible for the Phillies to miss the postseason, they are as close to a mortal lock as you can get.

Big, Phils have the tie breaker over the Giants, (not sure about the Cardinals).

Either way, they'll have a playoff spot locked up within 2.5 weeks.

I already sold 2 of the 6 tickets for the games tha were re-scheduled to Sept 15 and 20. I'm more disappointed about not seeing the games than I am about losing $. It's a sunk cost at this point.

Kutz: unless you originally bought them for a premium, you might be the only one on the planet who has sold his phillies tickets at a loss.

MG, yep, it's arguable.

I'd rank them differently:


I was just never that inpressed with Boggs defensively.

Also, I hate that they use WAR to rank these guys. It's been exposed as seriously flawed (even by others on this blog) despite anything it's proponents say about it.


Agreed, no question, that keeping the team as healthy and sharp for the playoffs as possible will be as important as anything Cholly does over the next month.

My comment wasn't at all to minimize the importance of this. It's more a matter of my personal preference for discussing stuff like whether any or all three of the aces will win 20, have Howard's second half heroics really been reduced to his September heroics, which teams are for real and which are pretenders, etc. ( a multitude of topics out there).

As opposed to what the pitch counts should be for each pitcher in September, whether Exxon should substitute today for Utley or for Jimmy, whether Mayberry should spell Raul or Ryan today, should Utley take a day off against the Fish or against the Nats, etc., etc.

But that's just me and my personal preference for types of topics, no disresepect.

Big, Phils have the tie breaker over the Giants, (not sure about the Cardinals).

There's a tiebreaker for the wild card? I thought they just played a Game #163.

Bigotto, totally arcane and worthless point: actually, since the Giants play the D-backs 6 more times, then if the Giants WERE to go 28-0, then the Dbacks would be in second place and thus our competition for the wildcard. We only need to finish ahead of ONE of those teams. The best possible scenario for the second-place finisher in the NL west would be if both AZ and SF won all of their other games and SF won 5 out of 6 against AZ, leaving them both 98-64. So 16 PHL wins would get us in, not merely tie us for the wildcard.

I have too much time on my hands without baseball...

EFF, you may be right. I haven't brushed up on my tiebreaker knowledge since last September.

Lorecore: I didn't sell my tix for a loss, but thanks for your concern. :-)

My point was that I really wanted to see those games, and now I can't.

Re: thirdbase
I rank Rolen ahead of Robinson. Scotty was a better defender. According to McCarver, who despite being annoying has seen and undertood more baseball than just about anyone in the world, Rolen was/is the best ever defender by a lot. In his prime I believe Rolen could have won a gold glove at any IF position. Also, he was a decent hitter when healthy.
I may even drop Brett a bit because he played 87-93 at 1B.

I saw Broooks Robinson in his prime. He was absolutely a magician. So far ahead of his time it's hard to believe. Trouble is, these days lots of guys make those kind of plays. The athletes today are incredible. I think Rolen is the best I ever saw too.

Kiko, yes, it's true about the Dbacks/Giants, but I chose only to emphasize the Giants to make the point.

If the Phils go 16 - 17 the rest of the way [99 wins], the Dbacks need to go 24 - 4 to TIE, and the Cardinals CANNOT win enough games to tie the Phillies.

So, to summarize, if the Phillies go 16 - 17, here's what the rest of the NL contenders have to do just to TIE:

Brewers: 18 - 9
Braves: 20 - 9
Dbacks: 24 - 4
Giants: 28 - 0
Cardinals: Cannot tie

It would NOT ONLY a monumental collapse on the part of the Phillies, but the other contenders for the WC (assuming Braves and Brewers win their divisions) - Dbacks, Giants, Cards - would have to win for 5 weeks at a pace they have been uncapable of sustaining all season.

If the Phillies go 13 - 20 the rest of the season, one of the others need to do this just to TIE:

Dbacks: 21 - 7 [.750]
Giants: 25 - 3 [.893]
Cards: 26 - 2 [.929]

How likely are any of the above?

Oh, and in the case of the Giants and Dbacks, if the Giants went 25 - 3 to tie the Phillies for the WC, the Dbacks would have had to go 22 - 6 to win the division.

Or, if the Dbacks tied the Phils for the WC by going 21 - 7, the Giants would have had to go 26 - 2 to win the division.

The odds of either of the above scenarios occuring has to be astronomical.

I had to sit through an editing session for a Best Of "the Orioles" DVD. I was hired to write liner notes and had to watch rough cuts of the film and video being converted ( I took it on as free lance job in 2002) and I have to say Brooks is the most underrated 3rd basemen I have ever seen. And in that series again Pirates, he killed at the plate too. He and Rolen aged way too soon. Rolen was a better hitter for a short span.

Weird off weekend. I wore my Phillies Ryan Howard shirt and a Phillies cap over the weekend for what? For phony hurricane forecasts???!!

My strangest rain delay memory was from long ago watching a Phillies game on TV and during the rain delay they interviewed Greg Luzinski. He was always portrayed as this hulking muscular home run hitter. During this interview, the TV decided to show us the full picture of Greg Luzinski during a rain delay, wearing his full Philles uniform sans socks and shoes; instead wearing a pair of flip flops on his bare feet. Out the window went this manly image. Forever etched in my mind is Greg Luzinski wearing flip flops!

Yo, new thread

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