Wednesday: What is the future of NL East rivalries?

Unless it's Bears-Packers, Michigan-Ohio State, or Yankees-Red Sox, rivalries seem to come and go with regularity - in virtually every sport.

Of course, the Phillies' division rivals are the Mets, Braves, Nationals and Marlins. But depending on what year it is, the Phils' primary rival has essentially fluctuated between the Mets and Braves for the last 20 years. For a time, there was even talk that the Dodgers, who met the Phillies in the NLCS in both '08 and '09, could be in the mix. You could even argue that their biggest rival at the moment is the Giants. But as we take a look to the future, who do you see the Phillies' primary rival being in, say, 2013? What about 2016? The Nationals are coming on strong in terms of young talent, but the Braves have the combination of youth and experience that could give them more staying power. The Marlins seem to always be on the verge of breaking out, but it hasn't happened yet. And the Mets, well, it's nice of the Phillies to let them play baseball with them 18 times a year.

Comments

[Jbird]

Repost:

Internal discussion =

Rube: You think Mayberry can play 3rd?

Cholly: Who? What?. . . No. That's a terrible idea.

Rube: Yeah, I guess you're right. . . But it'd be awesome if he could, right?

Cholly: sure boss, sure.

[Jbird]

The Nationals have the most upside and potential to be the biggest rival with all their young talent, but then again none of those guys could hit their ceilings. You never know. Outside the East, I like Cincinnati's mix of talent most.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

"The Nationals have the most upside and potential to be the biggest rival with all their young talent"

You could say the same thing with the Braves young talent, and the fact they're already a rival. Nats have proximity, though.

[EastFallowfield]

The Nats and Marlins never have enough fans to get a good rivalry going, not that playing them when they beat you isn't annoying.

Braves have a few fans on the internet at least, so there's that.

Mets' fans hatred of all things Phillie make keep that hint of a rivalry going.

[Heather]

Nice to see Utley and Howard aren't really that hurt that both could play today.

[denny b.]

The Nats have the most potential, with their geography and with possible future marketable stars in Harper and Strasburg.

Could be real salty between the Phils and Nats in the next 5 years.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Nats fans will grow once/if they start winning, just like the Caps.

[kilbillrain]

Bears-Packers is a rivalry?!

[NEPP]

If Harper makes the majors, his pure douchiness will ensure a strong rivalry.

[MG]

Maybe the Nats in the near future but because of the schedule they play each other too much during the regular schedule.

[MG]

With the exception of the Mets, it is hard for me to feel strongly one way or the other really about an NL East opponent unless both the Phils and the other team were in contention in the East. Indifferent to the Fish and even the Braves now that Cox has retired.

[the_berger]

Does a fan base add, dare I say, make a rivalry? If two good teams face each other and match up well and no one really cares, is that a rivalry? Or maybe the personality of a few players?

Hometown fans don't attend Braves or Nats games. I'm skeptical that the rivalry can be that strong.

I felt the Mets rivalry because I hated some of their players and their attitudes. I think the Nats/Braves lack personality. I really hated those Dodger teams in 08 and 09 mainly because of Furcal.

If I was a fan of another team, I'd probably hate our little Flyin' Hawaiian, he's that rivalry fire cracker type of guy.

[conshy matt]

i wonder how much the "Citizens Bank South" might add to a future rivalry with the Nats. if i were one of their fans, and i'm so glad i'm not, i would really dispise the Phils.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Mets fans flooding the Vet in its latter days helped fuel the rivalry that developed in the last decade. It may be that Phillies fans treating Nationals Park as their second home will have teh same effect assuming that team matures into a division contender.

[Kutztown Fan]

It may turn out that certain fans root for whoever is playing the Phillies, just like I root for whoever is playing the Yankees.

[EastFallowfield]

Fans of every other team we play hate Victorino, from what I read. Sometimes Halladay, Lee, Utley, Polanco get some begrudging respect, but no one likes Vic.

[the_berger]

@ EastFallowfield -- just the fact that Vic has the attitude and gets to essentially everything out in center would burn me up...you think you've got a hit b/c he plays so shallow -- Nope, out.

[TK]

The Nats will be the biggest rival NEXT year, and going forward for the forseeable future.

[the_berger]

@ TK, I could see the Phils fan base taking up a disliking for Roy Hobbs...I mean Nick Harper.

[Andy]

"Cliff Lee gets a ton of called strike 3s, mostly on those backdoor pitches that sneak in & hit the outside corner. Jamie Moyer used to get his fair share too."

Fair share, bap? Did anyone ever swing and miss any of those 45 mph fastballs Jaime used to roll in?

[conshy matt]

OT, but:

"Hop on the rotary phone and dial up Mayberry RFD; he's unowned in 96 percent of Yahoo! leagues."

from Yahoo Fantasy Roto Arcade

i'm 37, was this Mayberry RFD before my time?

[Bubba]

Off topic, but or those ,like me, hoping for some left handed pop off the bench, having Howard and Ibanez available to PH sure beats Gload as your only option.
(Stretching hard for a silver lining)

On the rivalry thing, I agree we are the same invading mob from the North that the Mets fans were at the Vet.
The difference is that the NY- Phila. rivalry goes to a long standing city to city dislike, bordering on hatred, that transends baseball.
I don't see anything like that with DC.

[MG]

Why will the Nats be the Phils biggest rival next year in terms of competition and not the Braves?

[Old Phan]

conshy, a bit before your time. Early 60s TV show.

[TK]

Braves will still be a big one next year, too. But the Nats, with Strasburg coming back and Jordan Zimmerman improving and lots of young pieces in place, I think are poised to do real well next year and obviously going forward.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I'd say 2013 is more likely to be the year the Nats take a big step.

[Andy]

Before they were shipped to another Division it was the Pirates. But now it's the Mets. It will always be the Mets. It's not about competition, it's about proximity and loathing. And while we might pity the Natinals when they're weak, we do not loathe them (except for Lannan, the dweeb); we will never pity the Mets (except in the most disrespectful use of the word "pity"); we will always loathe them.

[Andy]

Off topic: What do you think about Vanimal's chances for ROY?

[NEPP]

Kimbrel will be ROY and it won't be close. He's gonna end up with 50+ Saves most likely.

Worley will definitely get some votes though.

[donc]

I was at the game on Sunday. The Nats Park is nice and they do a good job to promote a good atmosphere. My buddy who is English said he felt like a ManU fan with the way Phillies fans took the place over. There was a lot of jawing back and forth but it was kind of half-hearted on the Nats side. You can tell they just aren't in to it yet. If that team grows up like we think they will, they'll start to win. And if they start to win I could see a great rivalry developing there. Those fans will start to really root for their team and the connection will grow. And they will remember the bullying by the Phillies and their fans. That could become a very heated rivalry if the Nats get good. I think it will be a blast. My hatred for the Mets will never wane no matter how bad they are. That team and their fans are menaces that need to be purged from the face of the earth. Ok, that may be a bit harsh but I really can't stand them. The Braves and their fans, by extension, are so boring that I think it stunts any rivalry. Though there consistantly good play makes for some animosity. I do have disdain for their fans because of how incredibly lame they are though. The Marlins? Who gives a sh!t. Certainly not their 17 fans.

[NEPP]

I cant wait to see "crowds" of 5K at the Marlins new stadium next year...solid investment in a terrible economy by the city of Miami.

[Dickie Thong]

The Expos Nats will always suck.

[donc]

NEPP: Totally agree. That is a disgrace in Miami. Just terrible to spend public money on a stadium that nobody will ever go to.

[conshy matt]

you guys see this from Charlie?

"When you see somebody hitting the ball like that, I think he's kind of earned the right to stay in there for a little while and see what he can do," Manuel said, after another bludgeoning of the Mets, this time by a 9-4 score.

"That's how you win jobs - I've said it over and over. He looks pretty good."

i like that.

[SLO Phan]

Speaking of Kimbrel, the Braves back end has been (unfortunately) fantastic the last few weeks. With Venters and Kimbrel, they have essentially shortened any game they are leading to 7 innings (6 innings if you include O'Flaherty). I thought those two might get worn out, but as the season has progressed, they seem to only have gotten better.

[conshy matt]

lineups posted:

Today's lineup vs. NYM: Victorino CF, Polanco 3B, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Pence RF, Mayberry LF, Ruiz C, Valdez SS, Kendrick P.

[NEPP]

Kimbrel has 143 SO in 63.2 IP. That's just ridiculous.

Thats good for about 450 SO in a 200 inning season.

[Fatalotti]

SLO Phan, there are still 5 weeks left in the season, and of course, the playoffs, so there's still time for them to hit a wall. But the Phillies will probably clinch the division early, and the Braves will probably clinch the Wild Card with about a week to go, and I would imagine priority one for the Braves would be to get Kimbrel and Venters some much needed rest.

In short, I don't think they're going to have a chance to wear down, since the Braves actually have a larger lead over the Wild Card than we have over the Braves.

[Fatalotti]

Kimbrel has 143 SO in 63.2 IP. That's just ridiculous.

Thats good for about 450 SO in a 200 inning season.

Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, August 24, 2011 at 12:21 PM

This is a joke, right?

[bay_area_phan]

Conshy: Gameday is showing Martinez at SS.

[NEPP]

Fat, those are his actual numbers.

He's posting a SO/9 ratio of 14.6 this year...down from his even more ridiculous 17.4 SO/9 ratio in 2010.

[Fatalotti]

Jesus, Kimbrel's xFIP is 1.94; his SIERA (which I think is a better ERA estimator) is 1.67.

That's unreal. ~15 SO/9 on the year, and he was even nastier last year, at 17 SO/9.

And his GB% is about league average, slightly below average with his walks.

This kid is fantastic.

[NEPP]

Sorry, that's 103, not 143...typo on my part.

Still sick.

[NEPP]

The 14.6 SO/9 is accurate too...sick.

[donc]

Watching Kimbrel pitch is even more impressive than his numbers. Man is just devastating.

[bay_area_phan]

NEPP: Yeah, I knew something didn't add up, since 143 strikeouts in 63.2 IP comes out to like 20 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Still mighty impressive though.

[mal-vern]

Looks like no Jimay Thome;;

per jaysonst-

jaysonst -Jim Thome's future may have been determined by 2 walkoffs yesterday, by Choo & Bourjos. Without both, Indians would have 1st dibs on waivers

[NEPP]

Kimbrel has given up 1 ER since June 11th (33 games)

He has a 0.28 ERA in that span. Basically, we need to win the game in the early innings as we wont be coming back on them.

[donc]

"Kimbrel has given up 1 ER since June 11th (33 games)"

Doesn't that just sound like the type of incredible streak that gets broken in the post-season though? That stuff seems to happen a lot in October. Having said that, the stuff he throws just aint fair.

[bay_area_phan]

When Kimbrel was at Single A, he averaged 17.6 strikeouts per 9 innings.

[NEPP]

To put it into perspective though...Kimbrel has a ERA+ of 224 this year.

Mo Rivera's ERA+ since the start of the 2003 season is 235

[EastFallowfield]

Mayberry RFD (Andy Griffith show) reruns were on TV a long time even after the early 60s. I'm older than 37 but remember the Monkees, Mr Spock, and the ceement pond even though I didn't watch them when they were first on.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Meteorologists are expecting Kimbrel to singlehandedly blow the Hurricane off course by fastball alone, saving the East Coast.

[NEPP]

Just think, if Kimbrel keeps this up for 20 years, he'll be about as good as Mo.

Every time I look at Mo's numbers, I am amazed again. I remember watching him as a mediocre starter in 1995 and then as a fantastic setup man to Wetteland in 1996. I also remember saying the Yankees were stupid to let Wetteland walk and give the reigns to Mo as the closer.

Ooops.

[bay_area_phan]

Actually, as great as Kimbrel has been, I would offer one cautionary note about his long-term prospects: historically, his control has been JC Romero-esque. He has really improved it this year to a manageable -- though still not very good -- 3.5 walks per 9 innings. But it's not hard to imagine those control issues popping up again and causing him major difficulties.

That's not to say that he won't have an excellent career. But I could see some difficult seasons occurring along the way. He's a little reminiscent of a young Brad Lidge.

[MG]

Still love the 0.71 ERA in 139 2/3 IP for Rivera in the postseason.

The only reliever I would vote for as a first ballot HOF.

[conshy matt]

ROY in NL will likely look like this:

1st - Kimbrel
2nd - Freeman
3rd - Espinosa
4th - Worley

Freeman has impressive numbers, but he's probably about the 12th best 1B in baseball. Kimbrel is arguably the best closer in the game. no contest.

BAP - Zolecki tweeted that lineup. we'll find out soon enough.

[NEPP]

I hope, as a Phillies fan, that he completely loses it in the NLDS and blows 3 Saves to lose the series...then he develops the yips like Ankiel and we never hear about him again.

[bay_area_phan]

Conshy: I hope Zolecki's right, as I much prefer Valdez to Martinez (especially considering the way Valdez has hit lately). But Gameday, ESPN, and Yahoo! all say he's wrong.

[MG]

Rivera is the only reliever to in recent memory to come close to winning a Cy Young. Finished 2nd and 3rd respectively in '04 and '05.

One of my all-time favorite guys to watch come into a game at Fenway. Think I saw him blow a single save against the Red Sox live in the Red Sox-Yanks game I went to over a span of ~10 yrs.

[Fatalotti]

We can only hope that Kimbrel turns into Carlos Marmol. An incredible strikeout pitcher, but one that can be undone by wildness.

[GBrettfan]

So...Braves v. Phils for the NLCS?

[phanatic's brother]

EFF - "Fans of every other team we play hate Victorino, from what I read. Sometimes Halladay, Lee, Utley, Polanco get some begrudging respect, but no one likes Vic. "

WHY? SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN. HE DOESNT TRASH TALK? HE DOESNT HAVE STOOPID FACIAL HAIR. HE IS VERY CHARITABLE ETC ETC ----
PLEASE HELP ME UNDERSTAND.

[Fatalotti]

GBrett, Phils vs. winner of Braves/Brewers series. That's going to be a fantastic series.

[the_berger]

@ phanatic's brother

It's simply "playa hatin". I mentioned earlier that he would drive me nuts if I rooted for a different team. Trash talk isn't the only criteria from fostering dislike/frustration. He's fired up at all times and goes 100%, and he isn't shy when it comes to the flaring nostrils, stare downs, etc.

I likened the dislike to how I felt about Furcal when he was with LAD. He was everywhere and difficult out. Same as Vic.

[the_berger]

PLUS, he's on the smaller side so he has that "how is this guy killing us" feel too.

[EastFallowfield]

Victorino is a bit of a hot dog. When he gets beaned purposefully he reacts in anger. He'll try to take advantage of the rules by trying to get an interference call in a rundown (that one really irked the Mets fans).

There are gifs of Vic getting the beer dumped on him in Chicago that fans of other teams post to cheer themselves up.

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread

[Bigot-to]

Kimbrel, Kimbrel, blah, blah, blah.

Someone will get to him.

With 6 more games left between the 2 teams, I predict it will be the Phillies.

[EastFallowfield]

Mets broadcast running a clock up on their own pitcher.

[No1]

I posted on Monday that the Nats would be the next rivalry. Harper has already thrown a barb at Phillies fans back in June (?), then Davey Johnson had this to say:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/the-nationals-giving-their-fans-reason-to-stand-up-to-the-philadelphia-invaders/2011/08/21/gIQAQpaLVJ_story.html

also here: http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/22/quote-of-the-day-davey-johnson-on-phillies-fans/

[Dragon]

Harper and Strasburg may never become All-Stars. It's way too early to tell. For my money, the rivalry now and over the next few years will be between the Phillies and Braves.