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Tuesday, August 30, 2011

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Drew this topic sucks...this is like the worst topic you've ever picked!!!

There, got it out of the way early this time. Now lets talk about Dom Brown...

Doesn't DOM have like a .440 OBP during that same stretch?

Rickey could talk about Rickey in 3rd person because Rickey was pretty damn good.

obp doesnt matter yo

That's okay as long as he doesn't start referring to his "Domomentals".

Is it just me, or does Dom's skipping winter ball and going on record that this is his time to relax concern anyine?

The guy seems like (1) some (maybe a few months) hard work/practice in the OF, (2) the same thing at the plate, and (3) some good timing/luck with the big club, from being a potential all star with a starting left field position on an elite team.

Just strikes me that now might be the time to put the pedal to the metal rather than ease off. He's pretty close to the dream.

Staying humble should be easy. He's had a lot to be humble about this year.

Didn't winter ball make Bastardo much better? I vote for winter ball for Dom.

He's been playing a LOT of baseball in the last 3 years. This is armchair psychology at its finest, but sometimes athletes need to step away from the game for a little while in an effort to be fully ready to come back, especially mentally. Brown has had a very challenging 2 years of baseball, with the ups and downs, the platoons, the pressure.

Good luck dom brown.

I feel like this is Silverman's Beerleaguer now

The Giants were 5 GB on August 30 of last year.

Dom played winter ball last year and I'm pretty sure the consensus was that he played too much ball from 2010-2011. I'd agree with Shawn that sometimes you just need a break, physically and mentally. Take the time off, come back fresh and ready to go.

lorecore: "Doesn't DOM have like a .440 OBP during that same stretch?"

No, no he doesn't. Lorecore must have misread an errant tweet at some point.

Dom is a really good player, and very young. I'm quite excited about his ability and upside, but let's hope he doesn't turn out to be a headcase...

I say definitely take the time off. He's been through a lot, winter ball didn't help last year. He's probably still mad that he missed time with an injury that happened in spring training and wants to be able to start healthy next year. Hopefully he can at least turn things around in AAA in September. Or on the Phils.

I say definitely take the time off. He's been through a lot, winter ball didn't help last year. He's probably still mad that he missed time with an injury that happened in spring training and wants to be able to start healthy next year. Hopefully he can at least turn things around in AAA in September.

Or on the Phils in Sept.

Wow, sorry, somehow that all went through weird.

What is funny to hear though from the last thread is that yet despite still having better performance on every single pitching metric you can look during the day/night splits even this ear, yet people still argue there isn't a difference between Hamels during the day/night.

Gap has narrowed but it is still significantly significant for the K/9 rate (8.4 at night vs. 7.7 during the day). His next 4 starts though are all scheduled night starts.

It kind of baffles me though how people could say these are similiar differences:

14 GS, 5-3, 3.34 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, .248 BAA

19 GS, 7-8, 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP. 9.4 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, .229 BAA

Pretty clear to me that the 2nd split is simply a better pitcher all around.

Ditto these:

34 GS, 9-11, 3.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, .266 BAA

64 GS, 27-21, 3.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, .234 BAA

"The Giants were 5 GB on August 30 of last year."

They made an improbable comeback last year. That doesn't make it any more likely that they will make the exact same comeback this year. They face long odds.

Lake Fred: What did Dom do in winter ball last off-season?

I think it's fine Dom takes winter ball off. He has been working for the past two years almost year round so it may be time to take a step back and not press so much in the off-season. No reason to burn him out before he hits 27.

D-Backs are surging where last year the Padres were collapsing. Also, the Giants aren't a good team. It's not impossible that Giants could back in again, but I wouldn't bet on it.

whitey: "The Giants were 5 GB on August 30 of last year."

BAP says it's impossible to come back from a deficit that large with a month to play (see last thread), so that should pretty much end the discussion.

Winter League:

It made sense for a guy like Bastardo who only threw a total of 39 IP all of last year (MLB/minors) to try to get some additional work in as a reliever. It clearly paid dividends.

If Brown had missed most of the year, it might make some sense for him to play Winter Ball but he will finish the year with 400+ ABs between MLB/minors.

Brown might benefit from playing a bit more in LF but I doubt it would make that much of a difference. He just isn't going to be a good fielder. Just hope that he isn't terrible.

As I recall, BAP in August of 2007 and again in 2008 said the only way the Phillies could make playoffs was as the wild card. In fact, this blog was nearly unanimous on that point.

If you want to make a point that the Phils have screwed up Brown's development and possibly hindered his development, that's a completely different discussion.

Old Phan: "D-Backs are surging where last year the Padres were collapsing"

Those surging DBacks just lost 6 straight before their current 7 game win streak, so who knows what the hell they'll do their next 30 games.

"But some days you feel really good and go out there and it's hard and some days you feel really good and it's not hard."

- Cole Hamels

Viva, viva, viagra!!

How did the Phils screw up Dom's development?

They screwed up Aumont's development since making him a starter was idiotic from the get-go, as several of us pointed out after the trade.

But they haven't screwed up Dom at all. He showed enough with the bat to warrant a long trial. In the end, it was his glove that did him in, so he goes back down to work on that part of his game.

Happens all the time with youngsters.

clout: Luckily it looks like 2010 just delayed Aumont's potential, and did not hinder it.

How did the Phils screw up Dom's development?

Yeah I don't get this comment either. Are people saying because they bounced him around they messed up his development? He played okay enough offensively to stick around but as you mentioned his glove did him in and they were able to add Pence. Send Brown back down, let him work some more defensively and next year he is probably your left fielder (or a fourth outfielder moving around with Pence and Mayberry).

lorecore, so you're saying you still think the Giants are going to win the division?

Would a quad20 season help Vic's MVP case, a la jroll's 2007?

He needs 6 triples, 5 HR, and 3 SB to along with his 21 2B.

6 triples may be hard, he might have to start legging out 2B on the regular.

TTI - This year it was really less debatable but he shouldn't have been brought up last year and left to languish on the bench. Even Amaro mentioned that this offseason.

Does anyone think that Rube is gonna make a move before the end of the month?

Its looking pretty bleak for BP or PH help at this point.

Old Phan: It would depend on what odds I got on a bet.

I think i'd take the Giants +400.

They really could use a nice BP arm. At this point, I really wish they picked up Adams*. I'm currently living in a phantasy land where they call up Aumont and he becomes a useful BP arm the rest of the way.

*I haven't seen any of his stats post-trade.

"
But they haven't screwed up Dom at all. He showed enough with the bat to warrant a long trial. In the end, it was his glove that did him in, so he goes back down to work on that part of his game.

Happens all the time with youngsters.

Posted by: clout | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 11:06 AM"

Clout, I agree and have pointed out before the fact that Charlie started Dom hitting 2nd the day they aquired Pence was showing him that his hitting wasn't what the problem was.

clout: I said a Giants comeback was improbable, not impossible. Do you still think the Giants will win the NL West?

BBeard: Adams stats are still legit, not as eye popping as before. Since leaving Petco, hes given up 2 HR in 13 IP compared to 2HR in his previous 48IP.

From john heyman:

NL Cy Young

1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers SP. Has outside chance for pitching Triple Crown in NL, though he's slightly behind for wins (ranking second, with 16) and ERA (third, 2.51) at present.

2. Halladay. His usual season -- 15-5, 2.56 ERA, league-leading marks for complete games and strikeouts per walk, only nets him second place here.

3. Cliff Lee, Phillies SP. Close to a dead heat with teammate Cole Hamels and two-time winner Tim Lincecum

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/08/29/award.leaders/index.html#ixzz1WWma0dLc

lorecore: So, what you're saying is that you don't think the Giants will win the West. Otherwise, you wouldn't need +400 odds to bet on them. In fact, you wouldn't need odds at at all.

And he has Halladay as 7th in the MVP race, with Kershaw not listed.

bap: Yeah basically if i had to bet on one or the other, I'd take the Dbacks because they've got a 5 game lead with approx 30 to play.

The 'improable'ness of the Giants winning the division isn't too much below 30% to me.

Staying humble should be easy. He's had a lot to be humble about this year.

Posted by: bay_area_phan
_____

phargo agrees. Weird quote.

Also, how did Lance Berkman clear waivers? he's pretty cheap...and the Cardinals lose their compensation pick next year if they put him on waivers and pull him back, so you'd have them by the balls if you claimed him. odd.

Or to put in perspective, I think the giants have a better chance to win the West than Wilson Valdez has at getting a base hit in any given at bat - already knowing that Vadlez has doneso 56 times this season.

Beard - Adams has pitched well for the Rangers. He has given up those 2 HRs but that is going to happen with a guy who is a flyball pitcher.

Phils' bullpen going into the postseason is almost going to be identical to the one last year - two really strong backend options (probably even better than Madson/Lidge last year) and a bunch of question marks after that. Middle relief right now is probably even a bit weaker than last year.

Bullpen has ultimately doomed the Phils the last 2 years in the postseason. Hope it isn't a 3rd.

where has our favorite Giants troll, Fear the Beard, gone? i miss him.

Kershaw pitched his way into the clear front spot last night. If Doc throws a CG for the win tonight, he's right back in it. Should be fun.

conshy matt - The bigger advantage the Phils will have is if Oswalt is pitching well as the 4th starter. It has been a spot that has really let the Phils down the last few years in the playoffs.

DBacks have Collmenter as their 4th starter. Giants have Vogelsong. Both are probably weaker options than Oswalt at this point.

Braves - TBA because of Hanson's uncertain status. If he is healthy, it is probably Beachy. That's an advantage for the Braves. Brewers will either have Marcum or Wolf as their 4th starter. Probably a push.

conshy: weird that the writer chose to lump his 2009 playoffs into his 2010.

He gave up 16 ER in his 3 '09 starts while only 3 ER in his 2 '10 starts, including a CGSO.

Ryan Howard was 0-4 last night.

When is that late-season push everyone keeps promising going to show up? You know, the one that's going to save him from the worst numbers of his career?

Jack: agreed, Kershaw really is on a tear right now.

It looks pretty hard for the Phils to finish 1-2-3 in CY voting at this point, even though Lincecum took a nice step back after giving up 3 HR to the Cubs.

Jack: Sept 1.

Don't mean to pee in the Holy Water, but Dom Brown don't hustle.

Doesn't matter how long he stays in the Minors; he has to ignite a fire in the belly or in ten years he's going to be a janitor with eight years of experience pushing a broom. The guy has more two years with the Phillies to show his stuff before they trade him. Somebody has to get in the young man's head and motivate his ass. I don't think I'm the only one around here who remembers watching a highly heralded rookie dog it to first base earlier this season. A rookie, dogging it? If that's the behavior one gets from a player fighting to remain in the Major Leagues, I surely don't want to see what the guy does with a guaranteed long term contract in his back pocket.

Compare Worley's behavior with Brown's. Who do you want as a teammate?

Yeah, this staff has been together for 5 months now, but lookinag this still doesn't get old:

SIERA leaders

Greinke: 2.39
Halladay: 2.52
Lee: 2.68
Kershaw: 2.72
Verlander: 2.78
Hamels: 2.80
Shields: 2.99

There are no other starters in the majors under 3.00 (among qualified starters). That's it. 7 pitchers in all the majors, and we have THREE on our staff. Of the 7, 5 are from the NL, but only Greinke is on a team that will make the playoffs outside of our three.

Going into the postseason with this kind of front of the rotation is just plain unfair.

Shocking that Jack would take a cheap shot at Ryan Howard in a thread about Dom Brown has underperformed. The same Dom Brown that Jack insisted would only be sent down because of politics favoring veteran players.

As long as Howard makes his late season push by October 1 we'll be fine.

"Shocking that Jack would take a cheap shot at Ryan Howard in a thread about Dom Brown has underperformed."

Almost as shocking as JJG writing a post which serves no other purpose except to be a pr*ck.

With Mayberry breathing down his neck, now is the time for Brown to shine. If I were him, I'd definitely be playing Winter Ball or doing what it takes to show up to Spring Training ready to rake.

An update on the Phillies chance to become the first team EVER with three starters having over 200 IP, 200 SO, less than 50 BB, and sub 3 ERA.

Doc:
189.2 IP, 182 SO, 23 BB, 2.56 ERA
Lee:
186.0 IP, 191 SO, 39 BB, 2.71 ERA
Hamels:
178.0 IP, 162 SO, 35 BB, 2.58 ERA

Doc will get there for the 4th time (the only pitcher in history who will have accumulated such a line 4 times in their career, Pedro having done it 3 times, and Cy Young having done it twice).

Everyone will get to 200 IP, most likely. Question becomes, does Cole get to 200 SO, and does Lee stay below 50 BB?

Should be fun to watch, and no matter what these three pitchers end up with, I'm sure the three lines all being on the same team will be pretty historic.

So kuvasz - since Brown didn't run out a grounder one game during a 2 year stretch where he has been playing almost non-stop, it means he doesn't hustle?

Fata - what would you expect Hamels' final IP total to be?

Quirky stat of the day:

Among qualified starters, Cole Hamels is the only pitcher to have no unearned runs on his record. 51 runs this year, all earned. Obviously, that one last night should have been unearned, but still, he's the only pitcher with such a quirk. Strange.

RedBurb, based on his 6.8 IP/GS rate this year, and if we assume he gets 5 more start (32 games remaining for Phils), he'd get to 212 IP on the year.

I think the Phillies will let these guys pitch into late September, even if they clinch, and just limit them to 5 IP in their last starts, or something like that.

So, I'd say Cole tops out at about 208 IP this year.

Jack: We get it. You're rooting like he'll that Howard sucks so you can say "I told you so" over and over again. Not everyone can be Freddie Freeman.

CJ: I'm rooting like *hell* for the Phillies, which means that I hope their highest paid player and cleanup hitter actually starts to hit like everyone

Anyway, what do you think Howard would have gotten on the open market this year? Do you think he'd even match what Adam Dunn got coming into this season (4/56)? Remember, Dunn was coming off a much better season in 2010 than Howard would have been coming off of this season.

Phils really need to hope that Howard's 30's go more like David Ortiz than Dunn. Or Richie Sexson, Howard's current most comparable player, who was out of baseball at age 34.

Jack - There were a bunch of Phils' hitters who looked awful at the plate especially early. Take your pick.

...like everyone claims he will.

The Brown doesn't hustle garbage is barely worth spending any time on, but oh well. Every quote I have read from coaches in the system has raved about how coachable he is and how badly he wants to get better. If anything he has the opposite problem, he presses when he is struggling. That is why it makes sense to give him some time off. He can rest up, come in and get comfortable in LF in the spring and share the position with Mayberry in a way that will benefit both of their stat lines/confidence.

I think the only thing Jack is capable of is thinking about Howard's contract. Enough alreadyl.

http://www.thefightins.com/meechone/dom-brown-had-a-particularly-rough-night-in-the-lehigh-valley/


Oof, Dom had some really troubling misplays in the field last night.

BAP,
Interesting that you would ascribe that to my post and not Jack's.

To review, one of the few real personnel suggestions Jack has made this season involved getting Brown into the lineup early this year and keeping him there even as he floundered.

Other than that, his analysis is an incessant flogging of Howard, Rollins, Polanco, and Ibanez. And promises that the Phils offense would be so inept that would threaten their ability to challenge for a title.

So given a thread that demonstrates that his one personnel prescription -- Brown -- was wrong, one might expect some contrition. Maybe coupled with an acknowledgment of the feel good story of Mayberry, which may compensate for Brown's unreadiness and Ibanez's fading in the twilight.

Instead we get yet another pathological Howard bash from Jack, non sequitur to this discussion and laughably on the heels of yet another Howard thrashing topic yesterday.

Dom Brown is tired? Goddammit, I'm exhausted!

Fat - That is about as bad as you will see a guy in professional baseball at a higher level play in the OF.

Good Phight though adds an element of stupidity to the conversation it about the booing last night being 'racially motivated.' Ugh.

When a guy plays that horribly in the field and at the plate, fans have a right to boo or cheer in jest. 4 defensive miscues like that especially on a few routine plays is a lack of concentration.

"Good Phight though adds an element of stupidity to the conversation it about the booing last night being 'racially motivated.' Ugh."

Or, more accurately, someone posted a fanpost about the game, making a passing speculation about race, then admitting uncertainty, after which a conversation ensued.

JJG: Well, if Jack exists on Beerleaguer for no other purpose than to bash Howard and others, then you exist on Beerleaguer for no other purpose but to bash Jack, MG, and me.

The difference is, you literally never write a post without a potshot. Jack takes many swipes at Howard (many of them justified), but also writes substantive posts.

If Brown really can't handled being booed either in a single T-AAA game, he simply isn't going to be able to handle any significant downturns at the MLB level either.

I would imagine that most players are generally indifferent to the crowd reaction & that in the end it has a minimal effect on most players.

Like Howard, Chase Utley is a mediocre September away from posting the worst numbers of his career as well.

Yeah MG, I don't understand why the writer of that GoodPhight post was taking umbrage to Brown being booed.

He struck out like 7 times in two games, and misplayed about 4 balls in the field that he should have caught. I would have booed him as well. I'd boo Pence during a night like that.

You bet it does, What I find quite funny in your remark was the snarking innanity of the context. That incident was not the only time Brown has not hustled while in the majors, whether on the basepaths or outfield. And frankly, anyone should have been motivated, considering the pot of gold on the far side of the first base bag. That he isn't shows me that the guy does not have a lot of internal motivation, because the external, i.e., major league status and million dollar salary sure hasn't been motivation enough to hustle.

Actually, having played nearly non-stop for a year ought to have brought out of the guy sufficient motivation (and perspiration) to bust his tail on ANY play. Otherwise, what was the point in playing all year round, simply to play? I don't think so. You play to make you a better player. Right now, the guy is not a major league player, but it is not about his arm, glove, or legs, its his head. Unless somebody gets to his guy he has the earmarks of a young Hanley Ramirez.

lorecore - Yup. Both guys are players in decline largely due to the simply fact of aging. It doesn't mean they still aren't good players overall and better than most of their peers at their respective positions.

Howard just faces and gets more criticism largely because of the deal he signed. When you are making that kind of money, you are going to get more criticism right or wrong.

Nice, Trevor May with 203 SO in 147.1 IP, or 12.4 SO/9.

Not bad.

lore: True. I'm under no illusions that Utley is anywhere near as good as he used to be. But there's a huge difference between an .820 OPS from a 2nd baseman with plus speed & defense, and an .815 OPS from a 1st baseman with no speed and below average defense.

Kuvasz: DOM can walk backwards to first on groundouts if he puts up a .950 OPS in his age 23-25 season.

JJG - to be fair, i think Jack missed yesterday's Howard-bashing thread.

Wait, there was a thread specifically designed to bash Howard?

And I missed it?

Damn!

The thought of Dom moonwalking to first on a weakly hit grounder to SS just elicited a hearty laugh out of me.

BAP,
Fair enough. No bash this time.

With Stutes still unevenly performing, Lidge underwhelming, and Contreras out, finding 7th inning bullpen depth is the priority for September. With Worley the default option, the clock is ticking on getting him settled and accomplished in that role -- especially given Worley's professed discomfort with switching back and forth between rotation and bullpen.

At some point soon, Charlie is going to have to roll the dice on Oswalt hanging in as our postseason rotation #4 and getting Worley experience and rhythm as #3 in the bullpen behind Madson and Bastardo.

Unless Amaro pulls a Gonzales or Fuentes out of his August 30 hat.

Those Dom videos are pretty ugly. Between his goofy route-running and his bad hands, I still can't believe he was gonna be a wide receiver at Miami.

I'll also say that, while he doesn't need to play winter ball, he needs to plan on doing some serious work with someone who can coach him on defense. If his defense doesn't significantly improve within about a year or so, he will find himself moved to either 1st base or DH. Obviously, neither of those scenarios would be with the Phillies.

"Howard just faces and gets more criticism largely because of the deal he signed."

So the people ragging on Howard in 07, 08 and 09 are all able to see the future and decided to start the Howard-bashing years in advance? Yeah, that's it.

well, TTI and Old Phan missed the memo, since they were on an island defending him. not a lot of Howard love going around. hard to believe, since he's got so many RBI.

*full disclosure - #6 is one of the 2 phillies jerseys i own.

bap/MG: agreed, moreso pointing out than I was making it a counter argument against Howard(contract) bashers.

Howard has been playing well below his expectations this year and will be a disappointment if he continues to play at this level.

A good Sept and most importantly a good October will hopefully change that career path, which I think he is plenty capable.

And MG- you're missing the point on the Hamels day/night stuff...and the point is, there is no point in even bringing it up. Are you telling me that during a day start you would really have less faith in him to turn in a gem than at night? With those miniscule differences in numbers?

If there's no reason to think his performance will be anything more than ever so slightly worse, than the discussion of day/night Hamels is absolutely worthless.

Ice, to be fair, he got 3 yr/$54 M deal after the 08 season, and before that, I think he won something like the highest arbitratin case in Philly (MLB) history.

Not sure about the facts, but he's been "well paid" since 07-08, and it was clear from the beginning that he was going to be highly paid. Not saying this does or does not justify the criticism, but the new deal that Howard's getting didn't just come out of nowhere.

Joe Beimel just released by the Bucs ... his numbers are pretty bad this year all around, but he has put up ok numbers vs lefties over his career. Think the Phils might inquire?

Well, there is an interesting parallel between Ryan Howard and Dom Brown, which is that their hitting mechanics stink. If you consider the 2010-2011 period, Howard's performance is clearly in decline. For the benefit of the homeboy crowd, you can be critical of Howard and still be a good Phillies fan. He has zero plate discipline and seems totally incapable of laying off sucker pitches.When you consider his production in relation to his salary, he's a poor investment. How different would Mayberry's stats be from Howard's if he batted in the #4 slot for a complete season? My guess is, not too different, but at a fraction of Howard's cost to the team.

As for Dom Brown, he just seems unable to get around on pitches because his swing is too long. Sarge has pointed this out, and he is exactly right. This isn't easily fixed. His best value to the team is as trade bait. It is always possible that a good athlete like Brown can overcome this problem, but I wouldn't bet on it.

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