Ryan Howard, Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley would finish with their worst single-season performance as everyday players if the 2011 campaign ended today.
Lots of talk today about Shane Victorino's bid for league MVP based on an extremely consistent .308/.381/.544 campaign and a 6.2 WAR, which puts him right in the mix among other contenders like Joey Votto and Matt Kemp. Vic is one of three Phillies hitters, in my estimation, who've exceeded expectations, including Hunter Pence, who had an All-Star half year in Houston before coming to the Phillies and hitting .326/.400/.526, and John Mayberry Jr., who's had an amazing month and is hitting .262/.326/.517 with 12 homers in 224 plate appearances.
Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz and, for the sake of argument, Wilson Valdez, have been par for the course. If J-Roll can return healthy and light it up in September, he has a chance to have a better season than in 2008 (right now his OPS+ of 103 is the same as '08). Chooch isn't as good as he was last season, which will likely become his career year, but he's having another above-average season with the stick. Valdez, thanks to this recent surge, is mirroring his 2010 supersub effort.
This will be Ryan Howard's worst season if he can't finish with his trademark run in September. He's hitting .249/.338/.477 with a lot of strikeouts lately and only 18 hits this month. His .815 OPS is .112 under his career average.
Ibanez, meanwhile, made a lousy season respectable in 2010 by finishing strong and ending with a .275/.349/.444 (111 OPS+), which fit nicely with his previous 10 seasons. He'll need an insane finish to do this same in '11; he's hitting a paltry .238/.285/.410 (87 OPS+).
Polanco had arguably his worst game as a Phillie Monday night and was the culmination of about two months of poor performance. Since July 1, he's hitting just .230/.299/.230 with no extra base hits and only one extra base hit, a double, since June 16. The veteran third baseman is dealing with myriad ailments and it's really starting to show.
Utley, frankly, has become something of a middling power threat these last few seasons and has been largely invisible this month, hitting .258/.327/.371 with one homer. If he can't pull his numbers up in September, we're looking at four-straight seasons of declining production.
Ibanez 2011 = Polanco 2012.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 04:56 PM
maybe it's time to split up the lineup and go with a pence howard mayberry utley or utley pence howard mayberry 3-4-5-6.
late inning relievers and their managers will wet themselves with the lefty lefty righty righty lineup in the postseason.
Posted by: phils and nova | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 04:56 PM
BAP/MG, I think the biggest "enigma" concerning IBanez is what his role is going into the postseason.
Is he the full-time starer? Platoon? Splits w/ Mayberry? Bench role?
Hopefully September will clear up some answers.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 04:56 PM
phils and nova - we can't use that middle of the lineup when Mayberry isn't even in the mix!
Posted by: Little Ollie | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 04:59 PM
I like this:
"Since July 1, he's hitting just .230/.299/.230 with no extra base hits and only one extra base"
Haha
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 04:59 PM
Grrr, the whole thing didn't copy:
"Since July 1, he's hitting just .230/.299/.230 with no extra base hits and only one extra base hit, a double"
There it is.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:00 PM
Why don't you try it again, Fatalotti: "Since July 1, he's hitting just .230/.299/.230 with no extra base hits and only one extra base hit, a double, since June 16."
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:02 PM
Fat - it makes sense as written. You have to include the end of the sentence "since June 16."
Posted by: Little Ollie | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:02 PM
Oh, sorry, misread it.
Thanks for the clarification.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:03 PM
I'd love to see Charlie finally move Utley to second in the lineup with Pence third, Howard fourth and Mayberry fifth. Or switch around Pence and Mayberry. Polanco needs to be somewhere behind wherever Valdez hits. And on days when Lee is pitching (and maybe Worley) Polly needs to be hitting ninth.
The poor guy is simply overmatched with his failing health and should not be anywhere near the second spot in the lineup. And the resultant Right left right left right at the top of the lineup will serve the Phillies well against the tougher teams in the playoffs. Seems pretty simple, right? And also seems as likely as Martinez being the starting catcher the rest of the season. There are just some things Charlie will not do.
Posted by: aksmith | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:05 PM
MG: Ibanez has been an extreme streak hitter his whole career; it's just that now he's 39, so the down stretches are much worse. I don't find that terribly enigmatic. The only enigmatic aspect of it is the coincidence of his streaks being almost perfectly aligned with the days of the calendar month. For that matter, you could say the same about Cliff Lee.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:06 PM
I think I sold KK short in that last post. I'd also hit him ahead of Polanco.
Posted by: aksmith | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:06 PM
And this was your feel good Phillies 2011 post of the day!
Posted by: Joel G | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:07 PM
BAP - He's having OPS swings of 300-400 pts from his lulls to his hot streaks. That's crazy variation.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:09 PM
Not to say Polly is ripping the cover off the ball, and not to excuse last night's abomination, but in the five games since he's come back from the DL he's hitting .318 with 3 runs scored and 2 BBs. Before last night only 1 K in the prior four games. He had a horrible July hitting .100 (!), but he's stepped it up in August at .293.
So I'm certainly willing to give him a little more slack and not kick him down the order based on last night's game.
Posted by: Little Ollie | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:13 PM
Not sure I love the fact that "WHEN Ryan Howard's September hot streak comes around..." has turned into "IF Ryan Howard gets hot in September..."
Feels like he'd have to REALLY flip a switch just about literally overnight.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:15 PM
My word these guys suck. This team is going to lose every single remaining game.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:16 PM
We're all going to feel stupid when Howard hits 15 HRs, drives in 45 runs with a .453 AVG in Sept.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:16 PM
I'm with Little Ollie. Tonight will actually be a pretty telling game for Polly. Let's see if last night was just an anomaly. If so, I'll feel a bit better about the stretch run/postseason. If he continues to look lost, or playing hurt, I just hope that there's a good Plan B (that should include plenty of September rest, at a bare minimum).
JRoll, please come back soon.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:17 PM
Mike Vicks contract nowhere near as bad as Howard's deal: discuss
Posted by: Rauls grandpa | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:19 PM
NFL contracts are mostly non-guaranteed. Only something like $40 million of Vick's deal is guaranteed.
Kinda hard to compare to an MLB deal.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:21 PM
Sure Polly is still hurting. His body is failing him. A hitter who has hit about .300 an above for a good part of his career even in his down years he hit close to .300. Has never really striked out much doesnt just suddenly loose it(other than short slumps) His back, hips an his age comes into play. Looks like even his glove is starting to go with it.
Posted by: Luis | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:22 PM
NEPP: Stupid or elated?
Posted by: GBrettfan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:24 PM
Both?
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:26 PM
When it comes to the Phils, I always feel stupid when I am elated. I am always waiting for the other shoe to drop and I was waiting to get kicked in the ass even when Lidge and Chooch were hugging.
Posted by: Rauls grandpa | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:29 PM
what a cheery topic to discuss. This team obviously sucks
Posted by: Jbird | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:44 PM
I agree with aksmith when he wrote, "I'd love to see Charlie finally move Utley to second in the lineup with Pence third, Howard fourth and Mayberry fifth." Aksmith, whose batting first in you mental order? I hope its Vic!
Posted by: Lake Fred | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:55 PM
Overall, it's just a really weird season beacause they're record is so good. Feels like a hockey season where you're just waiting for the playoffs to start. Everything we've seen so far barely matters. What if Lee sucks in the playoffs? What is Howard hits .350 with 6 homers?
Posted by: BobbyD | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:57 PM
I'd LOVE to see Howard have an typical September/Oct: .307/.422/.662/1.084.
But his average April (his worst month, improved by a very good April this year): .257/.349/.466/.816 would be a marked improvement over his July/August.
@Willard -- the funny thing about Howard's improvements. They USUALLY DO happen overnight.
Look at 2010. He had a major injury last year. Here was his line for the first 17 games back from injury:
.169/.229/.338/.567 when his Average bottomed out to .275 (he was batting .292 before the injury -- sounds like totally 2010 was a decline year right??). He finished season hitting over the next 22 games: .282/.429/.526/.954
I'll take those numbers.
Posted by: HammRadio | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 05:58 PM
Sounds like a bullpen on Friday for Blanton, then maybe some real hitters. I'd welcome Blanton to the 'pen, if he can get over that whole "I let dudes score in my first inning" thing.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:13 PM
But he's blue collar! And gritty!
Posted by: strange | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:18 PM
The blogmaster himself with the only post in the history of Beerleaguer that acknowledges Utley's 4 years of declining production.
Posted by: clout | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:19 PM
Blanton's 1st innings struggles are a problem, but I don't think it follows that, if he struggles in the 1st inning as a starter, he'd do the same out of the bullpen (where he would presumably have the luxury of throwing harder).
The real issue is whether he can be effective after such a significant injury, and so much time off. If he can, he can help our pen because he certainly has better command, and a more varied arsenal of pitches, than the likes of Stutes, Lidge & and Herndon. I'm fairly doubtful, though.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:22 PM
clout: It's really more like 2 years of decining production. The .976 OPS in 2007 was an anomaly; the 2 years after that were exactly in line with 2005-2006, give or take a few points.
But, if your point is that he isn't as good as he once was, 2 years of decline is plenty of evidence to convince me of your case.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:25 PM
I follow that logic, BAP. Of concern to me is less the velocity than his tendency to allow the situation to become a bit higher leverage than it needs to be.
Said, shortly, a reliever needs to have a short memory and not allow pressure to impact him. I don't know if KY Joe exudes those qualities. Though, I guess we won't really know, for sure, until he's given the chance. If nothing else, it at least slightly diminishes the chances of having Lidge in play.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:26 PM
Utley's 32...its not a surprise that his offense is down from his 27-29 Age seasons.
Its a natural progression that most players go through. Right now he's in that slow decline/plateau phase of his career where he likely have several productive seasons left in him.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:32 PM
Yes, Vic is hitting first in my lineup. However, when JRoll comes back, he will definitely be leading off again. And I don't really have a problem with that because he and Vic batting one two has always been a productive lineup, even though it seems like it shouldn't be.
At that point, I'd put Mayberry or Pence third, Howard, then the other of Mayberry Pence.
Posted by: aksmith | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:33 PM
Oh, and Utley would be hitting sixth in that lineup. Otherwise, Utley could hit third, Pence cleanup, then Howard fifth.
As much chance of any of this happening as Charlie winning the Nobel Prize for Physics.
Posted by: aksmith | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:35 PM
From previous thread, MG wrote: Newest Philly area institution: Wawa?
As someone who moved out of the Philly area in 2002, I can say without hesitation that literally everyone I've talked to since then who also moved away from Philly misses Wawa. It's definitely a Philly institution but not a new one.
Posted by: krukker | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:36 PM
BAP: My point was obvious. Neither you nor any other poster here ever says anything negative about Utley while bashing away on J-Roll, Howard, Ibanez etc. etc.
It was refreshing to see the blogmaster himself make note of some facts.
Posted by: clout | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:38 PM
i'm pretty sure there was an entire game thread dedicated to Utley's decline phase. he promptly went on a tear, starting later that game with a big go ahead HR, i believe.
most Utley detractors were consequently (and probably deservingly so) ripped. however, that hot streak has ended.
honestly, i'm not sure how to feel about Chase right now. he's stopped stealing bases, but he was running at a clip unlike any other in his career. is he not running b/c he's ailing? he looks fine on the base paths otherwise, right? where'd the power go? in general, he's stopped squaring the ball up as much.
Posted by: conshy matt | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:39 PM
also, while the shaky bullpen seems to be a topic for discussion, is it reassuring to anyone knowing that Stutes/Herndon may not be the answer in the postseason? would't Charlie go with Worley or Kendrick in a big spot instead of those two?
Posted by: conshy matt | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:42 PM
clout, to be fair, there was a good month long "BL Conventional Wisdom" that Utley was simply done, while he was seeing his first baseball action of this season. It was a good 30 or so games worth of "this is why we need Michael Young" crap.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:42 PM
conshy, to be honest, I actually think I'd rather see Herndon in a medium leverage situation out of the 'pen than Kendrick.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:44 PM
Willard - you're probably right. Worley on the other hand would be an upgrade for sure. assuming he's comfortable coming out of the pen, which he did just earlier this year i believe.
Posted by: conshy matt | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:50 PM
WP: I believe that was during the period Utley was hurt, not playing at all, and was by the usual hand-wringers. I've just never seen any criticism of his actual performance before reading JW's post.
Posted by: clout | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:51 PM
Re: Wawa
I have long seen Wawa as a thing suburban mooks are prood of or miss when they leave. I mean Philadelphia is an amazing city full or great art, food, culture, people, nightlife, etc and there are people who move away and rant and rave about a chain of convenience stores?
Posted by: gobaystars!! | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:55 PM
The idea that St. Utley has received the same criticism as Howard, Rollins, Ibanez and Brown... is utterly laughable. Utley is held to a different standard. I'll wait for someone to explain it to me other than he plays second base.
One of these things is not like the other...
Posted by: CJ | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:55 PM
Utley is the only one who's a potential HoF?
Otherwise, I'm lost on what you mean, CJ.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:56 PM
NEPP, CJ is of the opinion that when a player is white, the only possible justification for praising him is his race; all other reasons are illegitimate. In other words, CJ is a racist.
Posted by: fumphis | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 06:59 PM
NEPP: Howard isn't as potential a Hall of Famer as Utley? Or even more so?
It's like people are going out of their way to prove my case.
Posted by: CJ | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:01 PM
Utley the only one with a full head of hair in 2011?
Posted by: mw | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:06 PM
I take it back... Brown has got hair. But not 50's smokin'-behind-the-high-school greaser hair.
Posted by: mw | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:08 PM
Lance Berkman has cleared waivers. Let me ask you? Gload, Bowker or Berkman? Sure Howard has been on fire but you have to think his foot could flair up. Further, you have to think Berkman looks better then BenFran. Finally, Berkman would fit right in with Oswalt, Pence and Lidge other former Astros.
Posted by: Slocs | Wednesday, August 31, 2011 at 04:22 AM