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Wednesday, August 17, 2011

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repost -
Anybody see jackAsse Whiteside of the Giants faceplant on an attempted steal tonight?

this team is good.

79 wins matches the season total for the 1911 Phillies. Phils had fewer than 79 wins in 84 previous seasons.

Posted by: EastFallowfield | Wednesday, August 17, 2011 at 10:01 PM

EF keeping things in perspective for the spoiled rotten 2007 or after fans.

9 runs. No RBI's for 3,4,5 hitters. Gotta love it.

***repost*** Mayberry in 190 PA's: .263/.321/.491. Could the Phils' catch "lightening in a bottle" 2x; once with Werth, once with Mayberry? I loved the "inside out" swing, taking the ball the other way tonight. Kinda' reminds me of some of the wily ABs Werth used to come up with.

b_a_p correctly noted JMJ had 2,500+ largely undistinguished minor league PA's. Heck I'd be unmotivated if I had a sinking feeling AAA ball was either prison or a gateway to an insurance career...

Clearly, Mayberry isn't the OB wizard Werth was. However, Mayberry sure loves to hit with men on base; heck he just likes to hit. What is it going to take to get him 500 ABs in a season? A trade to another team?

Nuts. Give him left field next year. I bet he's a .275 BA/25 HR guy. On the cheap!

Anybody see jackAsse Whiteside of the Giants faceplant on an attempted steal tonight?

Posted by: phanatic's brother

He wasn't jumping up ready to fight the player on 2B? Looks like that dirt laid him out!

cut, Mayberry has 3.5-4 tools. He has a great arms, quick on the basepaths and plays some good D. He's shown that when he's hot at the plate, he can be a real force. I'm confident that Mayberry could start on a quite a few teams in this league, and that he would be a great player to platoon with Dom Brown next year.

Someone needs to post a clip or gif of the Whiteside Wipeout. That sounds like a definite "Must See" to me.

Ryan Howard's interview on CSN was hilarious. He called Jimmy Rollin's home run and Valdez' almost-home run hit to the "grown up part of the field." He also called Pence's slide into third a debacle.

Stanford, Politcal Science major and probably realized this winter that he really wants to be a major league baseball player.

Halladay is 15-5. Lee and Hamels are 13-7. I thought before the season that the Phils wouldn't have a single 20-game winner although Halladay would win 17 games and another Cy Young.

My prediction on Lee (ERA slightly north of 3.50 and only 13 wins) isn't looking so super.

Even on a night where Lee didn't have his 'Full Tilt' working especially early he still managed to put away the DBacks with relative ease except Goldschmidt.

With a really strong August so far (3 GS, 3-0, 0.75 ERA), Lee had quietly pitched himself back into the Cy Young race. Halladay is the front-runner at this point but Lee has a good chance to pass Hamels real soon if he keeps it up this month.

Fata -- As much as I'd like to think that he could play full-time for the Phils, methinks Mayberry gets traded this off-season. Hard to believe how quickly Dom has faded from my memory... Regardless, at least 2 sports radio "talking heads" have stated that Mayberry is nothing more than a guy who looks good in a uniform.

Bu88s8it. If I'm imprisoned for that long in the minors, I do everything in my power to prove that I belong. I believe that's the real value of Mayberry. He'll absolutely do whatever it takes to forever prevent yet another long ride back up the turnpike.

I know the DBacks rested a few guys tonight but there 6-7-8 of Ransom, Cowgill, and Blanco was about as bad as you will ever see a playoff contender trot out in a game during mid-August.

Lee faced these 3 guys tonight in they saw a total of 25 pitches in 9 PAs. Lack the 'discipline' indeed.

nice bounce back win

One of the friends said Mayberry is like Serrano in that he can't hit the curve. He is partially right.

Mayberry can hit curves unlike Serrano. What he can't hit are changeups especially from RHP like a couple of guys in this lineup.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110816/jim-thome-truly-real-caring-person

Love Stark's columns. This one is a real gem.

Also, his little bits on Pence towards the end are classic.

"And bench coach Pete Mackanin reports, after a week of watching Pence's ferocious hacks at the plate, he kiddingly told Pence he should try blooping in a hit once in a while. To which Pence replied: 'Pete, I don't do that. I melt faces.'"

MG- speaking of your predictions, remember when you guaranteed that the addition of Lee would mean only 10-15 less runs allowed from 2010 over the course of this season? Any idea where you are on that one? Hint: at the current pace, by the end of the season you will be off by triple digits.

I'm hungry. Give me two melt faces.

Saunders:

It still amazes me that this guy one 17 and 16 games respectively for the Angels in '08 and '09. There isn't a single thing about him that impresses me.

1. Throws hard or misses bat? - Nope he tops out at 90 MPH on his fastball and he is quite below average on his K/9 and swing and miss ratio.

2. Has good location on his pitches? - Not really. He has averaged over 3.00 BB/9 the last 3 years.

3. Keeps the ball on the ground? - Nope. He's a flyball pitcher who gives up his share of HRs.

4. Has a plus offspeed pitch? - Not really although he does have a curve, changeup, and a slider.

Basically reminds me of a lesser-talented Blanton which isn't a complement. Basically throws a bunch of offspeed stuff with enough control on his fastball to be an effective MLB starter but a guy I bet NL teams are hoping they get a chance to face this postseason.

It may have not got mentioned during the gamechat, but give 2 guys credit tonight who very rarely get it.

Francisco had a nice professional AB to get that 5th run in on a deep SAC fly.

And Schneider laid down a perfect sac bunt and then a solid RBI single (both against LHP).

I believe Mayberry had 4 AB's tonight, saw at least 3 pitches in every AB and never had a swing and miss. His biggest improvement as a hitter has been his pitch recognition. He's tracking the ball better and staying on balance. And when he gets a pitch to hit, he's putting a good swing on it.

The last one sounds a bit strange...but could former 1st round pick Joe Savery be in the mix for a September callup? Talk about a storybook season if that happens. Starts the year in A ball trying to transition to a position player (as his pitching career looked to have hit the end of the road). Hits everything in sight for close to 2 months. Then gets used in a couple of extra-inning/"we are out of pitchers" games as a pitcher and shows much better stuff then he's ever had in the pro's. Gets promoted to Reading as a position player. Bat cools off a bit. Goes back to pitching, out of the bullpen. Starts getting everyone out. Gets promoted to Lehigh Valley strictly as a reliever. Continues to get everyone out, with impressive peripheals. Now he could be pushing for a September callup with the Phillies, as a additional LHP in the pen.

Amazing few months for Mr. Savery.

I still wonder if his name came up in the Pence deal. I expect he will have a PH then a Save sometime in the future.

Iceman - 108 runs at current pace. Yeah just a little off.

NL Team Average ERA and Runs Allowed/Game

2008 - 4.29 ERA (4.62 R/G)
2009 - 4.19 ERA (4.49 R/G)
2010 - 4.02 ERA (4.35 R/G)
2011 - 3.84 ERA (4.20 R/G)

Reduction of over 10% in team ERA and 9% in runs allowed per game just since '08.

NL Team ERA reached a zenith of 4.59 during '00. Reduction of over 16% compared to 2011. Runs allowed per game reached a high too of 5.02 during '00. Also a reduction of over 16% compared to 2011.

Basically watching a completely different brand of baseball this year than '00 that more closely resembles the period between '69 (year they lowered the mound) and through '92 or '93 (prior to the start of the Steroid Era).

Wasn't the complaint about Mayberry that he couldn't recognize breaking pitches and had no plate discipline? It seems he's corrected that...not sure why people don't think he's not a genuinely improved player?

(Serious question, not sarcasm.)

If the NL Team average ERA finishes below 4 this year, it will be the first time that has happened since '92 (3.51 ERA).

Phillies up to 4.84 runs per game since May 23rd, good for first in the National League. The Mets, who sit second during that period, are at 4.77 runs per game.

We are basically dealing with a 3 months sample at this point in which the Phillies have been oscillating within the top 3 teams in the National League in terms of runs per game. I think it's safe to say that we can recognize their futility for the first month and a half of the season as the result of a lineup filled with subs that is in no way indicative of this team's offense.

The Phillies still have a top three offense in the National League, and a top 5-6 offense in the majors (when controlling for the DH influence).

With the best pitching in the majors and a top 5 offense, this is clearly the class of the league. But we already knew that.

Maybe Mayberry will see some time at 1st if Howard rests his hand. I really want to see Pence and Mayberry running wild again.

Although every other team can block the Phils from picking up a player on waivers, the non-contending teams have no reason to block, some of the contenders will not block if the player does not fit their needs, and no contender would block more than one player who fills the same need. If Matsui, Giambi and Thome are all placed on waivers, the Phils may have a shot at one of them. If the Phils are also looking for a third baseman and a reliever and if there are two or three of each that the team is interested in, the Phils should not have a problem picking up one or two players.

Crash and burn:

Correia was somehow selected to the ASG this year despite his 4.00 ERA but man since the ASG he is 1-4, 6.89 ERA, 1.82 WHIP in 6 GS. Can't think of a guy who has crashed harder.

Derek, hasn't Matsui already cleared all the way to the Phillies?

Fat - I had not heard. Good news if the Phils want to go in that direction.

Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui cleared. I cast my vote for Hideki.

"Matsui has also cleared waivers, according to ESPN's Buster Olney. Also a 37-year-old two-time All-Star, Matsui is hitting .264 with 11 home runs and 58 RBIs with the Oakland A's this season. He, of course, spent seven seasons with the Yankees from 2003 to 2009."

That's what I've read.

The feature I like best about John Mayberry, Jr. is that he is showing the ability to adapt at the plate. I took a lot of grief back in June for saying that I considered Mayberry a better all-around player than about half of the National League's starting outfielders. I continue to believe so.

His basepath read in the seventh inning on Valdez's long fly double to center field is a sign of his pure instinct on the diamond, and is, like an outfielder tracking a fly ball, NOT generally considered a taught skill.

As to starting in left field for the Phllies in left field in 2012, while I sure hope so, if not, for the good of this guy's career, I hope he gets traded to a team that plays him as a regular.

btw: After being ridiculed for calling Mayberry a "gamer" previously, I would reference Cut Fastball's post of 11:02 who referred to him as......"He'll absolutely do whatever it takes to forever prevent yet another long ride back up the turnpike."

That, my friends is a pretty good definition of a "gamer."

While Matsui is no Thome, he'd be a significant upgrade over Ross Gload.

Consider that Matsui actually has a stolen base this year.

I don't think Gload could steal second base in little league right now.

The only way I want Matsui to help us win a World Series is to go back to 2009 and suck.

Howard reports soreness in right hand, may need a MRI.

Mayberry probably begins next year in a platoon role with Brown, I would guess. Even so, if he stays healthy he'll get his share of at bats during Victorino's inevitable DL trips. I bet he'd end up with 300 PA.

Also from that start piece (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110816/jim-thome-truly-real-caring-person) .....

...the Astros have a chance to hit big on outfielder Domingo Santana, the fourth piece they got as the player to be named later in the Hunter Pence deal. Santana was only hitting .269/.345/.434 at Class A Lakewood. But he was also seventh in the South Atlantic League in doubles (29). He just turned 19 this month. And scouts gush about his raw skills.

"This guy has a chance to be Vlad Guerrero," one scout said. "He's still crude right now. But he has the highest ceiling imaginable. You put him in there with the other guys they got, and this has a chance to be like the [Bartolo] Colon deal was for Cleveland." To refresh your memory, the Indians got back Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips -- whoever they are -- when they shipped Colon to Montreal in 2002.

Yay! Pence and RFD hit 4 and 5. And the Big Piece gets some good rest before the playoffs. Woo woo.

If the Pence deal ends up being the equivalent of the Colon deal then that sucks, but the odds of that happening are far less than even 1%. The Colon deal is brought up so frequently specifically because it is such an outlier.

That sort of trade, in which several prospects years away from the majors not only pan out but become all-stars, happens almost never.

Underrated JRoll has a shot at 20 HRs. Didn't see that in June...

Glad to see Mayberry getting a little playing time. Raul has been killing us with his latest slump.

Raul's gone for sure next year. Vic could be gone the year after that. If both Brown and Mayberry pan out, they COULD both be starting outfielders on this team by 2013.

I don't see the Phils letting Vic go anytime soon.

"My prediction on Lee (ERA slightly north of 3.50 and only 13 wins) isn't looking so super. "

Frankly, that was one of the dumbest predictions of the year. I mean, seriously?

Your description of the highlight makes it sound like it was a goofy play. Or at least wacky.

In re: the Colon deal

The telling feature on that trade is how it still failed to shape Cleveland into such a dominating dynasty. And now all those guys are elsewhere. So, who knows. Maybe by the time Domingo S. is ready to roll, he might be Vlad Guerrero in red pinstripes.

He'll never be Vlad as long as he can't get a hit on a pitch that bounces on the dirt in front of him.

Mayberry probably begins next year in a platoon role with Brown

Heck, I want Mayberry to begin platooning in LF right now.

Good Morning!

That was a fun game. I love Jimmy Rollins. (As if anyone didn't know that.)

Brown Brown Brown...my goodness we still talk about him a lot, especially for a guy who can't catch. But he does such a good job at AAA! Whatever.

PS Just looked at the roster and note that Schwimmer is 6'8" tall. Wowee!

I guess Schwimmer can always come in as a defensive replacement at 3rd.

Straight ball I hit very much.

Can I please get a week off?

Great game to watch last night, especially for Phils' fans. Only complaint was Lee not getting the W. Going back to the game thread post, he is truly a blast to watch play, in part because you can tell he's having a great time and that he loves the game.

Nice to calm the D-Backs win streak down in a big way, and would be even nicer to send them back to AZ with a series loss - just so they know order is restored.

I was at the Iron Pigs game last night. Brown didn't look so hot. Struck out swinging at bad pitches - twice. Did get a single at another at bat, though. He looked kind of... Defeated? It must be tough to go back to AAA from the big league.

Galvis jumps around like he's made of jello. Frandsen has a weird superstition of tagging third then hoping on the corner of the coaches box on the way back to the dugout at the end of the inning. Kratz? SSS, but kind of Meh. Safety pitched in relief. Good stuff. How fun would it be to have a pinch hitting reliever?

I thought Lee got the win last night. He pitched the top of the 7th, and then the Phils took the lead in the bottom of the 7th, when Lee was still the pitcher of record.

Lee got the win.

If Kennedy dominates the Phils again tonight, does he get an official membership to the Phillie-killer Club?

The Colon and Texeira trades are outliers these days. But, Houston got a very nice haul for Pence, especially as compared to the rubbish they got for Bourn. Right now, it's looking like a potential win-win trade.

I hate auto correct...

Frandsen hopped, not hoped.

Savery pitched, not safety.

Argh

Mayberry's adjustments after being recalled have been getting great results. His more crouched stance helps him turn on inside pitches so much better and he is strong enough to still rip LHP just as good as he did before.

Awesome to see him start to round into a better player and yes, needs to be playing a lot more LF while Ibanez slumps to hell all over again for like the third time this season.

Raul's August: .136/.188/.182 in 48 PA.

And that includes a home series vs the Nats, his bread and butter.

Who did the broadcast team select as the player of the game? And does anyone know if that stat is archived anywhere?

without reading thru the gamethread, I'm just hoping that Valdez was mocked heavily for strutting out of the box on a double.

Raul's August: .136/.188/.182 in 48 PA.
Continuing his seesaw year. Ride him hard in September then bench him for the post-season. :)

Better yet, get Thome and Matsui and let Ibanez go.

Shipsass: I think Mayberry was the player of the game.

"Kratz? SSS, but kind of Meh."

I was assured Krazt was the second coming of Chris Coste. BLASPHEMER!!

Valdez was the player of the game on TV.

We've been pretty tough on Drew the last couple days...

Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, August 17, 2011 at 05:13 PM

Look, this isn't the stinkin' 700 Level here. To moderate BL you have to bring your A game.

If Silverman wants to step in for Weitzel on a regular basis he's going to have to show that he can play at the BL level.

Anyone who ever posted that Mini-Mart is better than Valdez should be hunted down like a dog and banned from BL or hounded off the blog.

End of story.

Did I miss MG's account of the Vance Worley promotion at the Reading Phillies Monday night?

I've never thought Mayberry could be more than a decent platoon outfielder, but if he actually learns to hit RHP, his speed and defense will make it hard to keep him on the bench.

Dom is going to need to show much more on defense next season to play a major role. I still like his longterm potential.

clout: do you really see a gap in performance between Valdez and Martinez that wide?

"Phillies up to 4.84 runs per game since May 23rd, good for first in the National League."

Fatti, according to Matt Meyers at ESPN the Phils have only an "average" offense.

Of course, his article was vacuously lazy because he didn't do his homework.

Mayberry will have the first shot as a starting OF next year i will have to think. I wasnt a big fan of his but he has has been been improving. If he can bat .270 at least he will win the job. This yet to be seen. He has a chance of 30 HR with 500 AB. Also isgreat defender an appears to have above average baseball instincts. The main concern for Mayberry is can he hit for average. Not necessarily a .300 hitter but at least a .270 - .280ish to get a chance to be a starter at this club. Next year will be his make or break year. With Olbanez finally gone he can be the starter with Brown getting some chances an more ML experience. Sort of like what they are doing with Mayberry this year. Even know i think i would rather see Mayberry than the old man out there. Yes Olbanez gives 100% everyday its just his 100% isnt much these days.

"If Kennedy dominates the Phils again tonight, does he get an official membership to the Phillie-killer Club?"

Since we beat Kuroda the last time out, the Phillies-killer Club currently has a vacancy in the staff ace position. Kennedy can certainly stake a strong claim to the spot with a 7-inning, 1-run performance tonight. Otherwise, I'd probably give it to Jair Jurrjens.

lorecore: Yes. Please make the case for Mini-Mart. Maybe I missed something.

I'm pretty close to admitting I was dead wrong about Mayberry.

Feels like a Gnome day

How exactly is Kennedy a 'Philly-killer' when he has made exactly 2 starts against them in his career?

Kuroda at least has 6 career starts vs Phils and 2 in the postseason ('08 and '09 NLCS).

I would argue that a guy needs at least 5-6 starts (probably more like 8-10) before you anoint a starting pitcher a 'Philly-killer'

"Raul has been killing us with his latest slump.

Posted by: Dragon"


From philly.com:

"Which is why the Phillies aren't going to bury Ibanez. For one thing, Manuel has too much respect for him. For another, it's not how he operates. Most importantly, there's no real reason to. I mean, he has driven in 30 runs in his last 32 games."


Dragon, you obviously haven't been watching the games, have you?

There is no reason to bury Ibanez. Just shouldn't face another LHP starter all year & that includes the postseason. I wouldn't mind see him getting some selective days off either over the next 1-2 weeks if Mayberry continues to hit.

Cholly uses Ibanez as an everyday player & at 39 he simply isn't capable of being one.

clout: I cant make a case for martinez, because he sucks. But so does Valdez...so im interested to hear the case for why he sucks so much less than minimart, I dont see it.

I'll make a case for Mini-Mart. He should be the poster boy for the new BL rainout graphic.

Oh, and Dragon, since you say Raul is "killing us", I thught I'd point out that the Phillies record in Raul's last 32 games is 22 - 10 [.688].


I hope Raul keeps killing us some more.

Kennedy has had a nice year but the primary reason his ERA is so low is that guys are only hitting .144 w/RISP against him vs. .229 overall.

He's a good pitcher. Just isn't quite as good as the 3.12 ERA indicates.

Biggest difference with Kennedy looks to be that cutter he has added which has really helped him vs. RH hitters & improved his control. I was hoping to get a chance to see him tonight at the game but the weather forecast looks awful here.

where did 'his last 32 games' come from? Did I miss someone say that Ibanez sucks in his last 32 games? I thought I posted that his August splits blow dick, which is his last 11 games.

The Mayberry situation is somewhat reminiscent of Jayson Werth. Werth was a first round draft pick who played forever in the minors without spectacular success. He came to the Phillies in his late 20s, with a reputation as a lefty killer who had great physical tools but couldn't hit RHP. Gradually, he earned more playing time & overcame that rap. He was around 28 or 29 when he broke out.

Mayberry was a first round draft pick who played forever in the minors without spectacular success. He, too, has had a reputation as a lefty-killer with great physical tools, whose inability to hit RHP would limit him to platoon duty. But, lo and behold, his splits show that he's actually got a higher average & OBP against RHP this year than against LHP. Only his slugging is worse, but it's a still respectable .455. If these numbers are real, as opposed to a SSS illusion, then he absolutely CAN be a full-time corner outfielder and a pretty decent one.

Given how Ibanez has performed, I'd say it's more than past time to give Mayberry his chance.

Werth suffered multiple injuries that led to his constant minor league play, while Mayberry just flat out couldnt perform.

Dragon, if you want to go back just 7 games, which constitutes Rauls' "latest slump" in which he is 2 for 28, the Phillies' record is 4 - 3 in those games [.571 - 93 wins].


Of course, St. Utley is .265/.286/.294 over the same time period, but you can blame it on Raul if you like.

Whitey - I was interested in Kratz because of the BL enthusiasm for him. Like I said, SSS, but he was kind of ordinary. He had a good swagger to the plate. Not so much when he slunk back to the dugout after failure.

lorecore: I'll give you 3 reasons off the top of my head:

1. Valdez can play a good defensive SS. Mini-Mart can't. Both are good fielders, but Valdez rates the edge here.

2. Valdez takes the occasional walk: .301 OB over past 3 seasons compared to MM's .253.

3. Neither has much power but Valdez can hit the occasional double, .337 SLG past 3 seasons vs. .298 SLG for MM.

Again, I await facts in support of your opinion that Mini-Mart is as good as or nearly as good as Valdez.

Get ready for a Beerleaguer explosion. I quote this morning's Morning Call from Mandy Housenick:

"Schneider, arguably the best backup catcher in the National League, again showed how valuable he is."

By the way, Phils are 23-3 in games started by Schneider. Is that the poster child for "lies, damned lies and statistics" or is Brian Schneider the greatest backup catcher of all time?

Martinez has the edge at 3B and CF defensively, and is much faster. Looks like he can bunt better as well, which is more important than "slugging" .337

He's also younger.

When using Valdez's career year in 2010, he looks better than Martinez, but overall I think they are pretty equal and going forward I bet Martinez surpasses Valdez in the next year or so....if a MLB team even lets either of them play.

"If Silverman wants to step in for Weitzel on a regular basis he's going to have to show that he can play at the BL level."


clout, word.

lore: Werth was also a higher rated prospect, with better plate discipline, and one season of demonstrated success at the major league level. That's why I used the phrase "somewhat reminiscent." There are clearly some significant differences between the 2 situations. But there are some similarities.

Despite the general consensus that Mayberry is too old to take a quantum leap forward, the reality is that there are 27-year olds who take quantum steps forward every year. Remember the off-season debates about whether Michael Morse's age 27 breakout was the real deal or a statistical fluke?

awh: not sure what the hell you are trying to prove here. Ibanez going 2-28 = the Phils winning games?

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