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Thursday, August 18, 2011

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Wow, you got this up quickly. The game just ended. Nice job by the young kids, Worley, Herndon, JMJ, Stutes (except 1 pitch) and Bastardo.

We have another shot at hitting a slop-throwing pitcher tomorrow. Livan has given our boys fits in the past. Let's hope they are patient this time and give little Roy some decent run support.

DBacks had their ace on the mound, their 'A' lineup, and still was a HR away from getting shut out and beat by a Phils' team missing 4 regulars tonight from their lineup with their 5th starter on the mound.

Magic number is now 31

I'm really hoping the Snakes win the west.

All I know is that I am rooting hard for the DBacks in the West and that the Phils get to see them again in the NLDS in 6 weeks.

80 wins matches the season totals for the 1974, 1987 and 2002 seasons.

Worley's kind of our 7th starter. And Herndon's one of our 'hope we don't need to use him' guys.

A-Train - Yup. Even if the DBacks would somehow split the first 2 games in Philly against Halladay/Lee, I still really like the Phils chance with a Saunders vs. Hamels matchup in Game 3 and even a Collmenter vs. Oswalt matchup in Game 4.

MG, It especially favors the Phils if MLB doesn't schedule 4 days off between each game like they've done in the past.

Herdon power.

JMJ hit his homer off a RH pitcher. Is anyone seeing similarities b/t him and Jason Werth of '08?

Winning series at this point is just automatic. Doesn't matter if they lose the first game of any series- they are going to win the next two. They've been like a machine since the series in Seattle.

They only need to play .500 ball over the next 40 games to get to 100 wins. Have they had ANY 40 game stretch this year in which they've gone under .500?

Basically, this is going to be a 100-win team. A notion that was laughed at by many on this site before the season started (and even well into May).

Iceman: Your math must be wrong. Beerleaguer's finest assured me this team wouldn't even win 97 games this year. The best they can do the rest of the way is 16-24.

They may lose a few at the end if the regulars are rested a lot.

Just think how we'd be doing if we had a real 3rd baseman.

CJ- I'm pretty sure it was you, NEPP and myself who had the highest win predictions. Most really low-balled it. It would be an awful jinx now, but it would be fun to see a re-post of some pre-season predictions once the regular season is over.

I even remember a few people predicting the Braves would be neck-and-neck with the Phils 'the whole way,' and if the Phils lost any of their pitchers for a long amount of time, 'including Oswalt and Blanton,' they wouldn't make the playoffs.

A-Train: or a LF that wasn't Washed Up.

I need some help with the logic.

The D-backs have a better record than the Giants, playing in the same division.

Assuming that they finish with the better record - since teams in the same division have more or less balanced schedules, wouldn't that suggest to people that actually the D-backs are the better team?

Not to mention - in that mother of all stats, the D-Backs have a better run differential than the Giants (which is negative).

Yet this existential fear of the Giants persists.

All I can think is that it must be all that psychological scarring caused by the Giants catching lightening in a bottle last year?

Giants? D-Backs? Brewers? Won't much matter. You folks need to relax.

Well, at least until we reach the World Series, anyway.

"I even remember a few people predicting the Braves would be neck-and-neck with the Phils 'the whole way,' "

Yeah - I remember something like that too. Something about "run differential," whatever that is...

Who was that, anyway, that thought that the Braves would give the Phillies such a run for their money? Anyone recall?

I predicted 92 wins. I'll be right before anyone of you genius's.

Phlipper: AZ has a better offense than SF, but SF has MUCH better pitching than AZ. With our pitching, the offense is kept in check, but given the streakiness of this offense (which hasn't happened in a while, btw), playing AZ is advantageous.

The Snakes came to town red hot and slithered out ice cold. Great pitching will do that to you. Philadelphia, where winning streaks come to die.

(Confession: The last line was not mine. Don't remember who said it, but I love it.)

The Dbacks and Giants have 6 more games against each other, so that'll decide who is better.

Not buyin' it, Andrew. The Giants offense is awful. Least runs scored in the league. The D-Backs offense is MUCH better than the Giants.


The D-Backs offense might be held in check by out pitching, but if our offense goes into a slump - which can obviously happen in a short series - the D-Backs could score enough runs to advance.

The Phils offense could go into a slump against the Giants pitching and still win the series because the Giants offense is that bad.

Bottom line is that the D-Backs have the better team, and you'd rather not play the better team.

"He's a G-load of crap.

Posted by: Bobby Cocks | Thursday, August 18, 2011 at 11:47 PM"

I laughed in an out-loud fashion.

The Giants will be lucky if they make the playoffs. The one thing in their favor is the division thy play in.

Fvcking awesome. I spent the whole game in two places: a Thai restaurant at PHI Int'l that had all TVs tuned to the football exhbition and the rest of it on the tarmac waiting 2 hours to fly 45 minutes west. Kinda pist. Phils winning makes it easier.

Phils were 34-24 on June 4. Since then, they have gone 45-18 (.714 PCT).

I mean 46-18 (.719 PCT)

Genius's

Classic

RFD has 10 dingers this year. Here is who he has taken deep:

RHP-

Tim Hudson
Anibel Sanchez
Jason Marquis
Ian Kennedy
Huston Street

LHP-

Mike Dunn
Jon Neese
Madison Bumgarner
Jonathan Sanchez
Barry Zito

Not exactly a bunch of AAA stiffs there. And he's gotten an equal number from both sides of the plate.

Ruben will have some interesting roster manuevering to do in the next few weeks. He is going to have to free up a few more spots on the 40 man roster. Because a 3rd catcher (Kratz) will have to be added for September. And I am guessing at least 2 more players (Cust and possibly Aumont or Savery or possibly both) could be joining the big club as well.

I'd guess Naylor and Garcia (both of whom are still only listed as being on the 15 day DL despite being sidelined all year by injury) could be moved to the 60 day. Carpenter (who probably won't be recalled and is likely done in the organization after 2011) could be dumped. Maybe they even use Contreras spot (and place him on the 60 day).

A few spots are going to be needed to be created though.

The more you see Gload, the more you doubt whether he can help you do anything the rest of the year. He and Cust could be battling for one post-season roster spot. They are basically the same player. If Cust shows something in September, he might just take it.

I think the final bench spot comes down to between Orr, Mini Mart and Dom Brown. If the Phils feel comfortable with their infield and Polly's health, they go with Dom. If not, they go with an extra infielder (either Orr or Martinez). Because Francisco has done a nice job as a pinch-hitter and is a veteran he makes it regardless.

I think in the end, your 6 man post-season bench could be:

Ibanez/Mayberry (platoon in LF)
Francisco
Brown or Orr or Mini Mart
Valdez
Cust or Gload
Schneider

They'll go with 11 pitchers.

good to know that when im up at 4am and bored, denny b is hard at work providing me with reading material. well played sir.

I think Brown is fading fast, hasn't done anything of note since going to the Pigs and wasn't even in the game yesterday as they recapture a tie for first. Cust, by the way, was and went 2 for 3 with a homer.

Thome:

"However, since he has a no-trade clause, he could decline assignment to a team he didn't want to play for and become a free agent. If he did that, he'd forfeit the remainder of his contract, about $500,000, although ya gotta believe that wouldn't be an obstacle for a guy who has made about $140 million in his career.

Or the Twins could put him directly on unconditional release waivers. In that scenario, he could also reject any claims from teams he didn't want to go to, although he would again forfeit termination pay."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110819_Paul_Hagen_.html?viewAll=y#ixzz1VTUhZXt6

Thome loves ya Charlie. Make it happen. We need a bopper off the bench as well as a legitimate DH in the WS.

Let the record state that I love Thome.

::swoon::

I'm pretty sure nobody that makes sensible decisions is haranguing Dom Brown for a hitting slump in triple-A. Can we stop this parade of uneducated statements about the handling of a top prospect?

Nice job last night. Nothing wrong with pretty decisively shutting down and taking a series from a red hot team who could potentially be a playoff opponent.

And...for them to ponder. Most of their hits against Halladay were bloopers and seeing eye grounders. A bit of good fortune to win the one game they did win. And they didn't even see Cole.

Mayberry continues to impress.

I think this means Jack and I are wrong about it being a 90ish win season. But we are both right about the Braves WC.

To be fair, many people made their pre-season predictions thinking the worst re: Utley's knee issue. And I don't think any of them will be upset to be proven wrong.

Damn Utley for returning quickly and being effective!!!

ya'll saw the offense pre utley, felt like a 95-97 win team.

It may take 102 wins to take the East.

Where does one get the idea that the Phillies will replace Martinez with Orr on the post-season roster? I guess we have to wait and see what happens over the next couple weeks but, I don't see any indication that Pete Orr is in the mix.

Besides, at 80 wins, we're not guaranteed to break .500 yet.

By the way, moving Joe Blanton to the 60-day DL will allow the Phils to select a player in their organization for their playoff roster whether they're with the big club on August 31st or not. There's this commonly held believe out there that it has to be a position for position swap, but I can't find that rule written anywhere and that hasn't always been the case.

Pete Orr will not be on the playoff roster barring some kind of string of injuries.

We all know the Phillies were a team destined to win 100+ games, and people should have believed that no matter what in the preseason.

It doesn't matter that people wouldn't have been able to predict the revelations that has been VAnce Worley pitching like a veritable ace for 3/5 of the season, Bastardo being arguably the best relief pitcher in baseball, Cole Hamels turning into a legit Cy Young candidate, John Mayberry outslugging Ryan Howard, Chase Utley not missing a majority of the season but instead returning and igniting an offense into tops of the NL, Shane Victorino having a near-MVP season and the Phillies acquiring Hunter Pence in the middle of a career year. Not to mention, the emergence of Micheal Stutes and David Herndon as effective middle relief options.


I mean, I really can't believe people didn't predict all of these things happening, since the above are the main reasons why this team is on pace for 105 wins as opposed to 95 wins.

Shawn: "ya'll saw the offense pre utley, felt like a 95-97 win team."

The Phils were 28-18 before Chase Utley came up. That's a win percentage that would translate to a 99 win season. And the idea that the Phils would not have made moves to bolster the offense should Utley have been out for the season is ludicrous.

Fata- haha. Yeah, it's been a magical ride. I can't think of one thing that's gone wrong for this team this year regarding injuries. Their win total will be absolutely maxed out.

The Phillies are sucking the Braves up to a 100 win team.

As CJ notes, the Phillies were 28-18 before Utley's arrival, goof for a 99 win pace. They are currently 80-42, good for a 106 win pace.

But since May 23rd, they are 52-24, which is a 111 win pace.

That's crazy.

The star of the game for me, was Herndon. The longer the delay went, the more I was wishing the Phils still had Durbin around. Herndon definitely picked up the slack and pitched some fantastic frames.

Now option him to LHV just in case we need a long man tonight.

i apologize, CJ, for a prediction that was based on a sample of 40 games' winning percentage over 162 games, and including the assumption that RAJ would acquire an impact bat at the trade deadline with injuries to our starting rotation being 100% made up for by the pitching performances of both KYLE KENDRICK AND VANCE WORLEY, and a rock solid bullpen headlined by none other than MICHAEL STUTES AND ANTONIO BASTARDO was not in my prediction bag.

Sorry, but too many great things have happened this season that its impossible for me, or anyone, to fault the "less than 100 game win" predictions.

Scotch Man, I couldn't believe how nasty Herndon was last night. He was fantastic. If they can continue to get that kind of pitching out of him, I'll take it.

Once again, Lehigh Valley is abbreviated as LV, not LHV.

Sorry to be pedantic, but it's a pet peeve of mine.

That's a pretty peevy pet, K-Town.

Who cares what the abbreviation is, as long as people know what it means.

Le.H.Val., ftw.

I'm getting a Mayberry jersey. The guy never gave up on himself.

***As CJ notes, the Phillies were 28-18 before Utley's arrival, goof for a 99 win pace. They are currently 80-42, good for a 106 win pace.***

So basically, Chase Utley is worth 7 more wins than Mini-Mart/Valdez at 2B?

Actually sounds about right.

Phillies have yielded less than 400 runs. No other team has allowed as few and 21 are over 500 runs allowed. The next fewest, the Giants, have given up 10% more runs than the Phillies this year.

Meanwhile, the Phillies .621 ROAD winning percentage is better than any other team's overall winning percentage. Heck of a year so far.

Mayberry is gritty and a gamer.


I think we just blew up yesterday's definition chart.

I admit it's a petty peeve, but I'm sure you'd like it if people used the correct terminology when referring to where you live/work.

How is Dom Brown doing at LHV since the demotion?

I think he has since retired from the game and is back in college.

At least that's the gist of what I'm getting from his team contributions.

I am still trying to figure out how Texas is still 5 or more games up on the Angels. LAa have a killer pitching staff

Meanwhile, the Phillies .621 ROAD winning percentage is better than any other team's overall winning percentage. Heck of a year so far.

Posted by: Hexy'sBaldSpot | Friday, August 19, 2011 at 10:22 AM

Larry Andersen was mighty suspicious about the Brewers home and away splits, especially hitting. I don't listen to the radio much so I am not sure if it was normal for him but found it interesting that he would insinuate cheating by another major league team and be able to get away with it.

We got it KF. Except now everyone will do it to piss you off. Or at least Whitey will.

word on the street is that Brown is getting nothing to hit in AAA; but is drawing tons of walks

Herndon has been pretty much lights out for a while now

and for the record, predicting 95 wins for the Phillies and a neck-and-neck battle with the Braves was a very reasonable prediction; I remain mystified as to why such a prediction is worthy of contempt now that the Phillies are running away with it

I think he has since retired from the game and is back in college.

At least that's the gist of what I'm getting from his team contributions.

Posted by: NEPP | Friday, August 19, 2011 at 10:26 AM

Did he go to LHVC? (LHV College)

See.

"To be fair, many people made their pre-season predictions thinking the worst re: Utley's knee issue. And I don't think any of them will be upset to be proven wrong.

Posted by: Kutztown Fan"


That was me, Kutz. I predicted 95 because I wasn't counting on Utley being back at all. I did, in my prediction say I thought this was a 102 win team with him in the lineup.

Unfortunately, it may be that I was wrong about even that, and they are better than I thought.

I did predict 94 wins for the Braves, which is just about the pace they're on.

R, if you predicted fewer than 100 wins, it's because you're a bad fan. And, you're stupid.

"Unfortunately, it may be that I was wrong about even that, and they are better than I thought."

I don't see anything unfortunate about it AWH. j/k

Hey, I can take whitey's jabs. All in good fun.

But I wonder if he'll begin referring to Leroy Halladay as LRH...

Speaking of exotic locales, I was out in Quakertown again earlier thus week and there were signs and excited people all talking about the Big and Rich show at the ballpark. Not being a country fan, I never heard of these dudes but is it a big deal they came to the Pigs park?

"I'm sure you'd like it if people used the correct terminology when referring to where you live/work."

I think I'd just be happy to have my place of living/working mentioned. Then again, I routinely go around calling my place of living/working "LancLanc" so I may not be the best judge of that...

KF: He probably calls him Holiday and Vice Roy is probably pronounced like Lee Harvey. I am constantly amazed at how many sports reporters and the like in Philadelphia mispronounce both names.

Somebody needs to go back to the predicting days and post the names and numbers. I forget what I predicted. .500 the rest of the way gives us 100 wins. I think we should target 110 wins, which would require .750 winning percentage the rest of the way. I'll be happy with 105 wins.

I live just outside of Ambler and refer to it as the Blur. So I really like Lanc Lanc.

I predicted 96 wins and, more importantly, a parade.

"Meanwhile, the Phillies .621 ROAD winning percentage is better than any other team's overall winning percentage. Heck of a year so far."


THAT.....is almost unbelievable. Sick.

LancLanc. I'll have to remember that. Us Dutchies usually pronounce it as Lang-CAST-er.

And I think I predicted 95 wins because Chase's injury made me nervous. I think I predicted a WS loss to the Red Sox, but their current injury woes make me think that won't happen.

I don't recall making a prediction. I do recall the feeling of dread I had when the prediction thread was posted. I looked at the team and the rotation and thought "too good to be true." Irrational but, I've never gotten over the wounds from Randall Cunningham getting hurt in the 1991 opener at Green Bay. I know it's football but, I had the same feeling then - "no way this isn't the best team in the league."

I'm sure this has been mentioned on this forum before, but I was surprised as I was driving through the LancLanc city listening to the Lancaster Barnstormers on the radio that J.D. Durbin ended up on the team as a starter.

Oh how the mighty have fallen.
(And, it may be an indictment of his skill level now that he seems to be doing alright among the non-ML minor leagues.

donc, touche!


grandpa, it Country Music, Big and Rich are a big deal.


I'm not a huge COuntry fan (mostly blues and alt. rock), but if my better half hadn't made other plans I would have tried to get tickets.

Fatalotti: And yet this has all happened despite injuries to Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino, Roy Oswalt, Joe Blanton, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Jose Contraras... to name a few.

You see, some of us recognize that there will be both good surprises and bad surprises... and that they often even out. Others live a life of doom and gloom. That's okay, it's their prerogative.

Bryce Harper with a strained hamstring last night.

Hard to believe, I didn't think 18 year olds get that type of injury.

Kutztown, I thought it was pronounced "Lang-kester".

I just found my prediction from March 31st:

"I agree with Edmundo's assessment of our hitting lineup. I predict 98 wins, the NL East title, and our four aces make it impossible for anyone to beat us in a short series. I predict another WFC. Against who? Who cares??!!!"

I think I was a little low.

At the beginning of the season, Utley looked like he might be out all year, if not return until late August/early September.

The predictions were made knowing about Lidge's injury and expecting injuries to Contreras and Oswalt.

And that's the point. The injuries were made expecting the a good amount of the injuries the team has dealt with or knowing about ones that had already cropped up (Utley and Lidge). And people STILL predicted wins in the mid 90s, which in case some have forgotten, is still a damn fine season

But when the team gets All Star level production from completely unforseeable spots (Worley, Bastardo), and production well beyond the levels of reasonable expectation from other sources (KK, Mayberry, Victorino), and gets back that injured star in late May when all reports indicated that wouldn't happen (at least during ST), and they are on the road to 105 wins, leave it to some on here to call others out for not being good enough fans to realize that such things would happen.

CJ, you're just a better fan than everyone else. Sorry for not recognizing this.

CJ, surely you expected Polanco, Lidge and Contreras to spend a fair amount of time on the shelf. Sure a starter or two go down for a while, that's what they do. We knew that Utley was seriously hurt at the beginning of the year, the only question was whether it was SERIOUS. Madson and Lidge have been out more than expected, I'll give you that. Excluding Utley, which was known at the start of the year, the Phils have been mildly snakebit with injuries.
But things have gone the Phils way this year. Francisco and Brown** have been disappointing, and I guess you could say we didn't expect Ibanez to be quite this bad. But look at all the good surprises, they have exceeded anyone's wildest dreams.

** If Brown could have played a passable OF he still might be here, he wasn't that awful offensively.

CJ, exactly.

What the injuries and fill-ins demonstrate...........and as one of the most vitriolic former bashers of the FO I find this difficult to type.........it demonstrates just how effective teh FO has been in building depth in the minors.

Sure, there's a big drop from Utley to Exxon/mini-mart, but you're talking Utley level performance before teh drop - arguably the best 2B in the game. Suppose the team's 2B was a 2nd tier player (i.e. not Utley, Cano or Pedroia)? The dropoff wouldn't be that far.

"You see, some of us recognize that there will be both good surprises and bad surprises... and that they often even out"

Fair enough. But I believe Fatalotti's point was: predicting a 100-win season for ANY team is optimistic. The better a team is, the more likely it becomes that the bad surprises will outweigh the good. Evidently, you must recognize this since you didn't predict 100 wins either.

I was right about a prediction awhile ago but I haven't received my prize yet. What the hell?

To the extent that some underestimated the Phils, it may have been because of their feeble-looking offense. Not realizing that's pretty much a league-wide phenomenon.

If the Phillies continue at their present pace & end up with 106 wins, here is one prediction I'll make with confidence: as the 2012 season draws near, anyone who predicts that the Phillies will win fewer than 106 games will be declared, by certain posters, to be a Negative Nellie & a bad fan.

bap, CJ didn't predict 100 wins?

Who'da thunk?

Watched the end of the Braves/Giants game last night. Kimbrel's arm does not appear even close to falling off. He was cruel last night.

Old Phan - I think you have to appear in person at CBP between noon and 1 pm on a weekday to claim your prize. Good luck with that.

80 wins. Wow. What a team.

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