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Tuesday, August 23, 2011

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2011 PA:

Valdez: 244 PA
Martinez: 172 PA
Orr: 70 PA

Pretty amazing just how many PA they have, eh?


Add in that Raul has 470 PA and its amazing the offense has just rolled along since Utley's return.

his peripherals have vastly improved, so I'm guessing sabermetricians have been noticing that

Cubs doing their Mets impression with the bases loaded in the 7th against the Braves.

That's Mike, future Mets' closer of the future.

The sabermetricians really aren't wondering much about Worley in terms of regression.

His peripherals, especially after tonight, look like this:

7.6 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9, ~77% LOB%, ~.260 BAbip, ~40% GB rate

These are the peripherals of a pretty good pitcher, not a guy riding a huge lucky streak.

Of course, he's probably not a 2.65 ERA pitcher (not many pitchers really are), but his peripherals show that most of what he's done as not been all that fluky.

The question is whether he can keep it up. I sure hope he can. Having a fifth starter that strong is a huge asset.

What if Worley turns out to be a #3 type guy?

Great find in the 08 draft if so.

Another question on Worley will be injuries which always seems to hit young pitchers.

Cubs suck. Waste d a bases loaded opportunity and got nothing.

Fata: AND THEN we have Kendrick who has been awesome this year.

Worley to the pen in the playoffs.

Last remaining problem for the Phils solved.

Only remaining question is WFC in six or seven games?

Fat: that's what Braves fans said about Muts in the 1st and 2nd innings tonight - "Mets suck, waste bases loaded no outs and 2 on no outs"

The last time these guys didn't enter the 9th inning with a lead: August 12th vs. Washington.

The Big Red Machine.

Marlins' Nunez implodes again - pulls a Mad Dog and gives up 4 runs, blowing 2 run lead in process.

SP ERA:
Doc: 2.56
Hamels: 2.62
Lee: 2.71
Worley: 2.65
Oswalt: 3.51
Kendrick: 3.44*

*ERA as a starter in 12 starts

Pretty ridiculous, eh?

It's the 8th inning and the Braves have the lead.

The Cubs likely have no chance.

Chipper Jones not hustling cost Braves in the 7th, hilarious, he jogged into second as the Cubs fumbled the ball.

Stop all the crying, were still open. Bring cash and speak English like my parents did, right off da boat.

Fata- BAP already said the Braves will win. With his track record, I've already put this game in the win column for them.

Then again, based on how the Phils are doing, unless the Braves are winning twice a night, I don't give a damn about them.

Worley and Mayberry keep making their case. Hope they have a feel for how many fans are pulling for them to keep it up. I get the sense it has passed the point where people simply want to see a good stat line because it helps the team, and gotten to the point where they are being thought of as real cogs in this team's success.(Philly guys?)

Stutes leaking a little oil? Dubee looked like a high school teacher blasting a kid to quit fooling around, finish his GD homework, and turn it in for Crissakes.

Stutes is like that old junker car you had where the engine fell out but its still rolling forward as you're going down a hill...its only a matter of time before it runs out of momentum.

One obvious observation:

In the 1st and 2nd inning the Vanimal showed us what he's made of.

Sure, he got himself in trouble, but he sure as heck got himslef out of it too!


hib to the jib

Padres with a 3-run lead in the 2nd vs the Giants. I'm guessing that lead is insurmountable.

Worley has really impressed me in a starting role.

I remember being hopeful that he'd turn into a decent reliever when we drafted him. He's really exceeded all expectations. He's a tribute to our scouting dept.

Does anyone know if he added a pitch or something this year? He destroyed AAA (5-2, 2.31 ERA in 9 starts) this year and is doing the same at the MLB level. His peripherals are also massively improved across the board this year at both levels.

So, did he add/improve one of his pitches or something?

From what I've seen of Bourn, I don't understand how he doesn't steal 150 bags a year.

Worley:

Did he "get it" with respect to command? If so, can he keep it up?

Chances of Tyler Colvin getting a GWRBI here off Craig Kimbrel?
Very low.

hence the 3 pitch swinging strike at bat

Phils 12-0 in Worley's last 12 starts.

Longest streak in Phils history: 15 by Steve Carlton in 1972.

It would be really nice if the Braves lost once in awhile.

You can't teach ball players the poise Worley has shown this season.

Second anniversary of Bruntlett's game-ending, unassisted triple play. And an East Coast earthquake. Unrelated?

From the last thread... The second worst defensive player in the same time period (according to Defensive Runs Saved): Derek Jeter

Who is the worst? My guess would be Adam Dunn.

Re: the link posted by Dukes.

Depressing article about Howard after an uplifting game.

Wow, that is some article, I'm not sure anybody can disagree with anything in it. It does no good to focus on it since the big piece is here for at least 5 more years.

One comment on the Giants game - Rowand's batting stance continues to give me the creeps. It has to be the most awkward in baseball.

Dam fracking Braves won again darn it @#$%

"One comment on the Giants game - Rowand's batting stance continues to give me the creeps. It has to be the most awkward in baseball."

Yep. Like a porn star with intestinal problems who decided to take up baseball.


I know it doesn't really mean anything, but I remember hearing something about how the team's record when Schneider's starting, particularly when he's catching for pitchers other than the big 4 is outrageous.

Anyone have that stat?

"Dam fracking Braves"

Great. Now the Braves are causing earthquakes, as if being the most boring team in baseball isn't enough.

That article about Howard is slightly depressing. Especially since he is here for next 5 years. They pulled the trigger on him to quick rookie Gm mistake. We all love Howard maybe next year he can make some adjustments.

Beat writers tweeted 25-3 when Schneider starts.

Howard is an albatross. We should release him right now and make John Mayberry Jr. our starting first baseman.

Stutes has lost some gas on his fastball in the last few weeks. Hopefully he gets it back in September.

Really not sure why they insist on running him out there for multiple innings at this point. Hasn't been the best course of action most of the year and certainly won't be now.

Nice to see Francisco contribute tonight. I am sure we will be seeing more of him in September. He will be on the post-season roster (if there was actually even a question about that).

I have to think the Phils will be making a trade in the coming days. I just don't think they have much faith in Gload and know they need an upgrade for the bench. They keep trying to give him opportunities and he has shown no inclination that he is going to turn it around.

With the way he's hit this year, the guy they could actually use is Greg Dobbs.

I wonder, with as effective as Worley has been against LH, if he will be used in a psuedo-2nd lefty role in the post-season bullpen? Thus making a 2nd bullpen lefty not that important.

Down on the farm, Brown had his first really good offensive game in quite a while. On base 5 times (3 hits and 2 walks). Got his 11th SB. Also butchered another play in LF, so the defense continues to be a big problem.

Mathieson was all over the place with his command (I think they moved him up a day to start today), but Savery bailed him out and ended up earning the win. Aumont had a shaky 8th, but DeFratus nailed it down with a strong 9th.

After a real bad start in AAA, DeFratus has been pretty good in the past month. He hasn't been as dominant as Aumont, but he has good K/IP ratios and very low HR totals.

Savery seems to have moved ahead of both Zagurski and Perez on the LV pitching chart. Perez has been particularly bad lately. He might be making it tough for the Phils to promote him, with as bad as he's been.

I am sure we will be seeing more of him in September. He will be on the post-season roster.. I remember hearing something about how the team's record when Schneider's starting,

That article cherry-picks.

Votto and Pujols have better career #'s with men on base and RISP than Howard, but you'd be hard pressed to find many others. A-Rod? Tex? Nope. A-Gon's #'s are pretty similar.

Howard certainly has his weaknesses, but his historic RBI rate is a product of his extraordinary power and first-class production with runners on and RISP.

Not as good this year, no doubt. Going forward? Well, I guess we'll just have to see.

Jered Weaver: "If $85MM is not enough to support my family,and future generations of my family,then I am really stupid. How much do I really need?"
He also watched his brother Jeff spend 11 years with 8 teams,and didn't want to go that route.
He also had to twist Boras's arm to get it done. Good for him.
Are you listening,Madson?

I think the Braves cause the earthquake somehow. Gload doesnt look like he will turn it around possibly because of his injury. At this point considering his decline they will have to find his sub. If Mayberry can play first an we can spread Valdez around do we really need him. He was a great PH an what Cholly needed but he cant do it no more.

I just decided I really like Jerrod/Jered Weaver.

Is Howard going to be our Soriano, with a less desirable defensive position?

krukker - actually it's not adam dunn...its yuniesky betancourt, who, while I thankfully don't have much experience watching him play, everything I've read about him or heard about him indicates his last place ranking is well deserved.

darn...i went to look up michael morse's numbers to refute the comparison of him to howard, and was instead referred to this baseball reference blog post

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14104

I am never going to finish my schoolwork tonight and I am still freaked about the quake today. I am tired and going to sleep.

I hope all the people out there who experienced worse today (with quakes or weather or whatever) and who read this blog have a safer tomorrow. I hope the storm falls apart in the ocean.

In the great scheme of things, I don't have much to complain about on here and I know where sports should rank (perhaps I will be kinder to Lil Roy now).
I wish all you BLers the best. God Blessed us all with another day today. Still no sports hernia or strained groin for me today.

I am going to hug my kid and go to sleep near my wife and snoring dog.

That article about Howard is just stupid. I mean it. It's really, really stupid.

Let's nitpick at teh author's analysis, the same way he nitpicks (by that I mean SSS) at Howard:

"And Ryan Howard?

On Monday, he went 1-for-4 with three strikeouts, all looking, before being lifted late in the game; and on Tuesday, Howard got the night off.

And the offense did not miss a beat."

I really hope this guy doesn't think one game without Howard in the lineup really means anything, does he?


"It has now been five years since Ryan Howard broke out in 2006 with one of the greatest offensive seasons in Philadelphia baseball history."

Ummm, OK, what's your point? It's been 3 years since Albert Pujols hit over .350. That tells us just about the same amount, which is nothing.

"It has been three years since Howard last led the NL in home runs and RBI, and helped lead the Phillies to a World Series championship."

It took Albert Pujols until his 10th year in MLB to accomplish the feat.

"It has been two years since Howard led the NL in RBI before going cold in the World Series. "

What does leading the NL in RBI have to do with going cold in the WS?

As I typed about....stupid, vacuous analysis more suited for a bar in Southwest Philly.

No wonder I never go to that website myself.

Bigot-to, there is no point to that crap.

Sweet dreams, rauls grandpa!

Damn, that Bleacher Report article is actually damnably trenchant.

I can't believe I actually just wrote that sentence, but that it's actually a pretty good summation of the "Case" against Howard, whatever side of the court you find yourself on. I still think that many self-identified sabermetricians still underrate him to some degree, mostly because they don't realize the extent to which the defensive shift actually matters for Howard. I think he's a better fielder than UZR does too, and, for what it matters, I think he's a likable and fun guy to root for. I think I might even appreciate his past body of work enough to not begrudge him his bajillion dollar Venice canal-d mansion in Florida (and speaking as a Cynicanarchist, that's no small thing for me). The $75m we'll be paying him from 2014 to 2016 is kind of a bummer though.

that list that circus posted is pretty damning too.
so, shucks.

I didn't even read that article on Howard and I can already tell it's garbage. You know why?

Because it starts with bleacherreport.com...

Games ahead/games ahead in the loss column:

Wild Card: 16/17
Division/best record in NL: 6.5/8
Best record in baseball: 5.5/5

Magic Numbers:

Wild Card: 19
Division/best record in NL: 28
Best record in baseball: 31

Can't believe they've stuck with Gload this long. Hasn't made sense to have him there for quite some time and yet he's there.

Hard to figure, Harry.

From philly.com (Rich Hoffman):

"He played left when Ibanez got hurt, and he played first base last night while Ryan Howard rested a bum foot. Amaro has raised the possibility, however distant, that Mayberry could get a look at third base in a future season."

Well, I guess the people on here who've raised the possibility of Mayberry learning third aren't all that crazy after all. Or Amara is as crazy as most Beerleaguers (a distinct possibility).

And if the Phils can somehow beat Big Pelf today and win Friday they'll match their best ever 41 games over .500 mark.

EFF, Phils are currently 83-44. They'd have to win 2 in a row to get to 41 over .500.

Nevermind...it's way too early.

You typed win today AND win Friday.

You know, I might have to re-evaluate my opinion on Worley. I certainly hope I have been wrong about him all these months...

From ESPN.com: "The Red Sox (78-50) have been the best team in the majors since their 0-6..."

Now, I know it's cool to always talk up the Red Sox, but how about a little fact checking, eh?

Beginning the morning of April 8th, the Red Sox were 0-6. They won their first game of the season that day, and are currently at 78-50, which means that, starting with 4/8, they have gone 78-44. Pretty impressive, and stands to reason that it's the best record in baseball over that span, no?

Wrong.

Beginning the morning of April 8th, the Phillies were 5-1. They are currently 83-44, which means that, starting with 4/8, they have gone 78-43. Last I checked, a 78-43 team would have a half game lead on a 78-44 team.

It's not even like this was hard to check, either. There are only 4 teams with as many as 78 wins on the season, and since the Braves and Braves didn't start out 0-6, that means they couldn't have a better record than the Red Sox since April 8th. That means that there was one team to check. That's it: just one.

And he didn't bother checking. Lazy, lazy, lazy.

Even we eschew using dates and look at who's been best over their last 122 games, the Phillies won their game on April 7th, so that means they've been 79-43 over their last 122 games, still better than the Red Sox 78-44.

Is Howard going to be our Soriano, with a less desirable defensive position?

Posted by: rauls grandpa | Wednesday, August 24, 2011 at 12:23 AM

Well, Soriano DID flail at a 9th inning 3rd strike about 2 feet outside. Then again, he's had a nice career--about 350 homers, I think

I get the concept of what the author is arguing in that article about Howard. However, deeming him replaceable because the Phillies laid 19 runs on a terrible team is a bit of a stretch.

Does he really think the Phillies would've done the same thing to a team like the Braves, or the Giants?

From above: "Jered Weaver: 'If $85MM is not enough to support my family,and future generations of my family,then I am really stupid. How much do I really need?'
He also watched his brother Jeff spend 11 years with 8 teams,and didn't want to go that route."

Can't help but think about Werth when I read that.

Its Bleacher Report. Waste of time.

Yeah Howard will become the Phils' Soriano at some point given the length of the deal. Just hope it is in the 4th or 5th year of the deal and not the 2nd/3rd.

Giving out the contract was one thing. Timing was another. Amaro needlessly gave that contract extension to Howard and there was a steep price tag for those few months of needless uncertainty. Gonzalez only got $21M per over 6 years despite being 3 years younger & being a better player at this point than Howard. Amaro completely misjudged the market. Likely cost the Phils at least $15-20M total (and possibly more) on the deal.

Being a first-mover can have its advantages but there can be some real down side too.

Strange thing about the Howard deal was the necessity that Amaro felt to backload the deal from '14-'16 where Howard's salary jumped to $25M at ages 34-36. Plus, he stuck a $10M buyout option at age 37.

No exactly like the Phils got some kind of real discount or savings paying Howard at $20M in '12-'13.

"And he didn't bother checking. Lazy, lazy, lazy.

Posted by: Fatalotti"


Fatti, welcome to the club. I know you've seen my rants about lazy journalists. When guys like you and me can check something like that on b-r.com or fangraphs IN ABOUT 30 SECONDS - what does it say about the quality of journalism today.

And...I use the term journalists with no qualifyer (such as 'sports' or 'financial') because I submit to you that said laziness is pervasive all over journalism today, not just among the 'sports' journalists.

It's why you can't believe what you read in the New York Times or Wall Street Journal anymore, among others.

Howard our Soriano?

I wouldn't bet on it. From what I've heard and read, Howard's work ethic is miles ahead of Soriano's.

Amaro was banking on hyper-inflation to make it look okay in 3-4 years.

We could all just pretend that the Phillies are paying Howard $10 million this year and $15 million in those final couple years and also pretend our payroll is just $162 million instead of $172 million.


There, his contract is suddenly reasonable again.

Bigotto - Work ethic aside Howard is going to be a guy who almost certainly should be a full-time DH in another 2-3 years and likely will be a .250-.260 who hits ~30 HRs. That isn't a guy you pay $25M.

According to Bill James' Favorite Toy (which admittedly shouldn't be taken too seriously), Howard should for about 5 more years and end up with 505 HRs, with about a 20% chance of getting to 600. I think this underrates his chances a bit since he plays 1st base and doesn't have much of an injury history.

I don't mind the contract. I love watching Howard hit.

"Work ethic aside Howard is going to be a guy who almost certainly should be a full-time DH in another 2-3 years..."


MG, based on what?

After the HR and triple last night, Shane moves into first in the NL on fangraphs' WAR chart... if he stays solid for six weeks, our home crowd need to start chanting "MVP" after every hit (ala 2007 Rollins), especially in the playoffs to get the national media's attention...

Circus: that article can't be right because Clout has told all of us that Ben Zobrist is a terrible player with absolutely no worth.

I was a Worley hater around the trade deadline, but he has improved his numbers significantly. His FIP and xFIP sit in the low to mid 3s, which is more than fine in my book.

The swinging strike percentage of 5.6% is still a red flag though.

Bay Slugga - I am in total agreement with your post. After a while, results are more impressive than perpherals. I don't think Vance is there yet, but I do note he's already had a better season in terms of WAR than Kendrick has had a career.

Mayberry: 12 HR, 41 RBI
Werth: 15 HR, 48 RBI

Werth has 260 more AB’s

Bigotto - that he will be 34-35 and likely have declined defensively with pretty limited range. Ideally Howard would be a full-time DH now.

Phillies offensive leaders OPS+/wRC+ (ordered by OPS+)

Victorino: 154/161
Pence: 135/139
Mayberry: 135/137
Howard: 122/118
Utley: 119/128
Ruiz: 107/108
Rolling: 103/107

Two things: the Phillies lineup, when healthy and optimized, it actually quite scary.

Secondly, who would have predicted the top 3 of this list, and the fact that Howard and Utley, the team's 3 and 4 hitters, can't even crack the top 3 of their team in terms of OPS+/wRC+?

Pretty crazy season.

And Mayberry seems like a pleasant person, unlike Werth's surly persona.

Mayberry has been unbelievable. The Phillies scouting/FO really hit a HR there. Who did they trade? Golson? At the time, it was viewed as a swap of two players who just didn't seem to have it and a change of scenery might do them well. Sure looks like the Phillies made out in that deal.

In addition, kudos to the coaching staff at Lehigh Valley. They turned Mayberry from a project to a fine ballplayer.

I was pretty shocked when Amaro said they were going to try Mayberry at 3B this spring.

Probably the biggest news of the day since playing the Mets is far from newsworthy....unless you're some dude trying to post big picture implications based on a three game series(i.e. 99% of blogs on the itnernet).

NEPP: Stutes is like that old junker car you had where the engine fell out but its still rolling forward as you're going down a hill...its only a matter of time before it runs out of momentum.

I disagree. Stutes is like a new car that you know has to have the engine broken in, so it should only be driven short distances. But, the owner still takes the thing on long trips and wonders why it breaks down more often than it should.

lorecore: when did Amaro say that? I'm not questioning you, but I haven't heard that. Do you have a link/source?

If that's the case, and somehow he can play an adequate 3B, that would be amazing. I don't see it working out well, though.

He played left when Ibanez got hurt, and he played first base last night while Ryan Howard rested a bum foot. Amaro has raised the possibility, however distant, that Mayberry could get a look at third base in a future season. When informed of this by reporters, Mayberry, who hasn't played the position since high school, did his best to hide his gulp and said, "Anything that gets me on the field."

http://m.philly.com/phillycom/db_45622/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=nl3X04Lz

The Mets broadcasters spent an inning ragging on Mayberry for his positioning at first. Something along the lines of "he's a fish out of water and only comfortable standing in one spot despite the defensive situation calling for him to be further back".

Would Mayberry be the lankiest 3B of all time?

"The swinging strike percentage of 5.6% is still a red flag though."

Slugga, is it OK if the Vanimal strikes out guys looking?

rbill: heard on sportsrise this morning.

Mayberry hasn't played 1B regularly since college (where he was considered to be a pretty good defender there actually).

Cut the guy a break. Honestly, if his reactions are good, he'd probably be a good 3B. 3B is about reaction, not range so much.

Also, did anyone see Ryan Zimmerman's plays last night. If he doesnt win the GG, its a joke. He's probably as good as Michael Jack was with the leather.

Well, to be honest, there wasn't much of anything for the Mets announcers to talk about pertaining to the Mets. At least not anything positive, so why not try to find something negative to talk about pertaining to the Phils.

R. Bill - sports similies are like a cat screaming on a fence which is keeping you up at night when you have an important job interview in the morning. Hard to ignore and ultimately meaningless...

Re: Mayberry at 3rd...I don't see it working out well if they give him two weeks or even two months to learn the position, no. But the guy's a great athlete, has a cannon for an arm...I think it has a great chance of working if they give him enough time to get comfortable at the position.

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