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Friday, August 12, 2011

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Cust's last stand.

i guess this is for depth but doesn't rizzotti provide this type of player

I'm unfamiliar with Cust and what he may be able to bring to the table at this time. Is he a better option than Gload? Can he be the '11 Stairs? If push came to shove, can he play the OF, or would it be a situation where he'd be replaced with Martinez every time he reaches base?

Is the Cust signing just MiL filler, or do they think they'll see if he can be a DH should they reach the finals this year?

OP - Nicely done.

Low cost, potential pay-off? Sure, why not.

Is Schilling more deserving? Of course. But Krukker is more iconic. So I support that. In fact, I support all of those names except for Fregosi. Hope he never makes it.

Schweitzer - If push came to shove he could concentrate really hard and imagine someone else envisioning the possibility of some other guy thinking about sending another person out to play an actual position.

If there were such a thing as a designated fielder, you could send my 92 year old grandma in to field for Cust and it would improve your dWAR.

Jack Cust is kind of like the 2009 version Matt Stairs: can't hit, can't play defense, but will draw lots of walks & gives you a homerun threat off the bench. Frankly, that combination makes him a much better bench option right now than Ross Gload. Gload is a one-trick pony (hitting for average) and, due to his injury, he can't even perform his one trick anymore.

Mayberry is the '11 Stairs...

The Phils should just bring Stairs out of retirement for the postseason if that's what they're looking for.

Brian - I think Mayberry is better than Stairs.

But the 08 playoff HR off the Dodgers could get Stairs onto the WOF ?!?!? huh? huh?

bap, good point about Gload. Cust provides some pop from the left side...ass-u-ming that it was Safeco that caused the power outage.

And I thought Flemington's claim to fame was the Hauptmann-Lindbergh baby trial. Silly me.

And the idea that Cust is duplicative of Matt Rizzotti is just silly. Cust has 2,581 major league PAs; you know exactly what you're getting. Rizzotti has 0 major league PAs; we have absolutely no idea if he can hit major league pitching -- let alone do so immediately.

Not to mention that Cust has WAY more power than Rizzotti and can actually play the OF in a pinch.

The final piece of the puzzle has fallen into place!

More like Cust is the '11 version of Mike Sweeney. Probably with less hugging.

Will S.-- I liked your post in the last thread (not the gloaty one, but the follow-up explanation). If you had stuck to those main points I doubt if you would have met with as much resistance as you did--particularly the point about being around Sandburg (one of my favorites from that era as well).

Unfortunately, most of your posts have not been like that.

si.com does a piece on the best SP duos in baseball based on their WAR ratings. While the article itself barely mentions the Phils, amazingly the top two duos are Halladay/Hamels and Halladay/Lee. By my reckoning Hamels/Lee would come in 4th on the list with a combined 9.8 WAR, but they're apparently not included because theoretically neither is a number one starter? Braves best duo is 14th, last on the list.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/joe_lemire/08/12/haren.weaver/index.html?sct=mlb_t11_a2

Yeah, if that SI article had been about starting pitcher trifectas or quadorgies, the Phillies would have had to be the main focus. For better or for worse (well, definitely better), the Phillies are not easily quantified into duos.

Cust is the definition of "The Three Outcomes" Player.

He either strikesout, walks, or hits a HR in 53% of his career PA.

basil, touche!


(Or is it the factory outlets?)

Little Ollie, that's a good piece by Lemire except for one item:

He uses "
the greatest improvement in their team's winning percentage ... when they are pitching" as though it's somehow significant.

If Oswalt had been healthy all year (even if Blanton went down and Worley got the call), then there's probably no way that Halladay/Hamels or Halladay/Lee would have been ranked high at all using that "statistic".

A healthy and normal Oswalt, along with Worley and Lee/Hamels, would have a pretty high winning percentage for a "bottom three" in a rotation.

Danny Federici, the late organist for the E-Street band, was also from Flemington.

Bigotto, good point. In his table itself the stat is not the greatest improvement in win percentage, but the actual win percentage. There, the two Phils' duos rank one and two, but that fact is not noted. Improvement in win percentage presumably depends on the level of the prior year's win percentage, though I'm not sure what period of improvement is being measured. Who cares about past performance?

Not sure how much HR power the big guy has left, but he hit 84 HRs in 3 seasons playing in one of the most extreme pitchers park in baseball.

His HR/FB ratio in those 3 years was 31.7, 29.7 and 17.7. That's almost Pujols country.

Will Jack Cust be a part of the Phillies or Iron Pigs championship run?

bap:
Cust does not equal Rizzotti. He is simply a major league manifestation of Rizzotti's skill set. As I do not foresee Cust actually getting called up to the crowded major league roster, the comparison was merely to make a note of their similar tools.

Cust can play the outfield in a pinch the way a leopard can be a sheep dog in a pinch, the way a screwdriver handle can be a hammer in a pinch, the way a pair of watermelons can be shoes in a pinch, the way a bowling shoe can be a teacup in a pinch, the way tree bark can be pounded into flour in a pinch, the way...

You get my point presumably. In a pinch I'd rather have Roy Oswalt fielding the position than Cust.

Much Liek Jurrijens did earlier this year, Cueto is now qualified this year(pitched at least 1IP per team game played) and has jumped on many spots on the leaderboard in ERA+ and WHIP.

Def not a CY Young threat, but does knock down our big 3 a ranking spot in some of the more prestiegous categories for the time being.

Andy: Yeah, I get the comparison. There are some similarities there -- except that their power-hitting abilities aren't similar & Cust is a known entity.

I do think Cust will see time with the major league team -- at the very least, as a September call-up. And, considering that Ross Gload's OPS is less than .600, the bar for earning the last post-season bench spot is set pretty low. I'd give Cust a 50-50 shot of making it.

There is a really good Italian bakery in Flemington. And I guess we should not forget....Sunday Sunday Sunday, race fans, etc....

I don't think Andy is saying that Rizzotti=Cust.

At least I hope not.

You have to imagine when the Mariners let you go that perhaps it is time to go back to school or to schedule some job training.

Counting the seconds until the first post advocating that we sign Ron Mahay . . .

We haven't signed Ron Mahay yet?

Here's an interesting tidbit from Jayson Stark's column today:

"The Astros don't have to choose the Class A prospect to be named later in the Hunter Pence deal for another two-and-a-half weeks. But there are rumblings out of the Phillies' Florida State League outpost in Clearwater that an injury to one of the minor leaguers believed to be on the Astros' list -- outfielder Leandro Castro -- might be complicating that selection. It isn't clear if Houston has the right to replace Castro with another name. But one Florida State League source said he expects the Astros to attempt to expand their shopping list because of Castro's injury. That has a chance to be an issue."

missed the last thread on Kruk... wanted to note:

On Kruk.

Only 8 guys had a higher OPS than Kruk from 1989 to 1994 (includes his entire time in Philly and part year in SD). He just didn't really generate a lot of the counting stats. Didn't really drive in many runs (32nd) or score many (41st). Probably related to his HR total (39th) and the overall quality of the team around him.

Bonds, McGriff, Griffey, R Henderson, W Clark, Tartabull, Molitor, Fielder, Kruk, Palmerio

Modified to 2500 PA, only 14 have higher OPS.

F Thomas, Bonds, K Mitchell, McGriff, Griffey, A Belle, Olerud, Canseco, Justice, R Henderson W Clark, D Tartabull, Molitor, C Fielder,
Kruk, McGwire

RBI(47th) Runs Scored(47th) HR (71st)

3000
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/UN0Su

2500
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/lofM8

some good notes in Stark's piece... one that JC Romero may end up in colorado (supposing they don't go after mahay) and this:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110812/mlb-postseason-problems-revisited

2) Jimmy Rollins led off Wednesday's Phillies-Dodgers game with a 15-pitch at-bat. You sure don't see that much. Our favorite pitch-count guru, Aneel Trivedi, reports that no leadoff man in the 24-season "pitch-count era" has had a longer plate appearance to start a game than that. And this was just the fourth at-bat of exactly 15 pitches in all those years. The others: Derek Jeter versus Jered Weaver two months ago (June 3); Johnny Damon versus Manny Aybar on June 30, 1998; and Dave Martinez versus Mike Bielecki on June 23, 1989.

theory: I swore I read like 5 reports that the PTBNL list made of players at Lakewood not named Biddle.

Awesome move by Leandro getting hurt, hopefully that saves him from getting selected by Astros. He's the man.

Also Jiwan James tweeted a question about Reading's team bus, I wonder if that means he's getting a call up?

Washed Up.

- 1 HR in 129 PAs on the road this year
- Declining ISO numbers and % HR/FB since '07 to numbers this year that are quite below MLB averages
- Always kind of dough and 32 this year

Amaro took a flyer on this guy. Nothing more. I would still rather have the Gimp on the roster in the postseason to PH but pretty clear the Phils aren't satisfied with the nonexistant power numbers that Gload has given them this year as a PH (0 HRs in 56 PH ABs).

Imagine the Phils are content with Mayberry now as their right-handed power source off the bench. Exploring alternatives to Gload which is wise.

After the garbage Wade accepted for Michael Bourn, he should be embarrassed to hassle the Phillies over the player to be named later. He should pocket his standard bribe from Amaro and leave it at that.

Old Phan - That made me laugh out loud. Should be a guy who writes paper headlines.

BAP - It would only be fitting. The Phils have been linked in rumors to him it seems every year since '07

lorecore, what's with the link to the Call of Duty website on your handle?

If they want to bring in an ancient hasbeen barely fielding local product, call Mench.

willard: its a sweet game...not much else thought to it.

Signing Cust does just about complete the Official Phillies Minor League Beer Softball Team, though:

Lubanski
Bozied
Overbeck
Tripp
Susdorf
Ruf
Kratz
Larish

Just add in Jack as the Short Fielder for that squad, figure out which ogre to stick at SS, and find a suitable pitcher to lob fat ones, and set up the kegs. I figure they'd need about 6 half-barrels.

grandpa - Think Mench can toss slowpitch? He could be our pitcher!

Come to think of it, I forgot Rizzotti on that squad. Susdorf,being the small guy, will have to be the guy who brings the beer.

Inky has to be available for another post season run.

Andy,
I don't know but I remember Mench was a fan favorite as a visitor.

NOOoooOOOooooOOOoooOOoooOOOOooooo

Any status updates on Polanco?

Any status updates on Vic's suspension?

Is Cust more like Stairs or Branyan? Discuss...

Cust will be the DH for 3 games in late October. Count on it.

Just kidding.

And I guess we should not forget....Sunday Sunday Sunday, race fans, etc....

I remember that being the Atco "Va-Va-Va-Voomway!"

Is Cust more like Stairs or Branyan? Discuss...

My favorite triple slash line for a Philly remains Russell Branyan:
.222/.222/.889

brad: Who would you rather have as the 9th hitter in the lineup in games at the AL park? Francisco, the extra bat in 2009, or Cust?

Russell the Muscle's PH go-ahead HR(his first AB as a Phillie) vs the Nats was one of those moments where you had a feeling there some magic coming for that 07 team.

Will Cust get consistent AB's in AAA? I don't see them moving Brown from LF to RF.

Would they send down Rizzotti?

If they plan on having Cust as a bench bat for the playoffs I'd like hime to get as many AB's as possible in the minors.

Can we get on with it and cut Aaron Heilman already?

Phillies are +320 today. Yikes.

Wasn't someone arguing here a couple days ago that in a 5 game series against WAS, the Phillies would have something less than a +300 series price? Clearly that's wrong.

You mean -320? They should be prohibitive favorites.

And I believe that the -300 line discussion was in regards to the entire series, and not a single game.

WP, yes, I meant -320. Sorry.

If the Phils are -320 in a single game against Livan Hernandez (who I guess is the ace of the WAS staff?), then they would be something like -500 in a 5 game series. Much more randomness in a single game than a 5 game series.

clout: I'd like Cust as DH over Brown. I just don't see it as a likely scenario, should the Phillies get there. More likely, LF/DH will be some rotation of Brown / Ibanez / Mayberry, I bet.

Ed,
I used to think Sunday 3x announcer thing was local to Atco but later i learned a DJ who became a race caller named Jan Gabriel (from the midwest?) established that and the "sell you the whole ticket but only need the edge" thing and everybody stole it all over the country in the 1970's. I just assume they do it at the track in Flemington too that's why I said it in this case. My cousin told me the guy died on a Sunday, sure enough, a few years back.

RIP! RIP! RIP!

pb - I thought Rizzotti was in Reading already. Which was why Ruf was in Clearwater.

I can never keep these no-field, good hitter guys who will never see light of day on an NL team straight.

Clout: what I meant was I'd like Cust as DH over Francisco (not Brown). I just don't see it as a likely scenario, should the Phillies get there. More likely, LF/DH will be some rotation of Brown / Ibanez / Mayberry, I bet.

Whitey: If the odds are -300 or more in a short series, you should not be betting on that team.
I'm not sure I'd take the Phillies at -300+ to beat the Nationals in a short series, let alone another playoff team. That's just stupid.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, August 09, 2011 at 03:01 PM

Stupid is as stupid does.

12:00p - Series Price (August 12th - August 14th) All games for Series must be official on the game moneyline. Starting pitchers cannot be listed for series wagers. If any game is not played by August 14th at scheduled location, then wagers are No Action. Wager is on first 3 games of the Series.
Washington Nationals +350

Philadelphia Phillies -500

Yo, new thread

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