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Wednesday, August 24, 2011

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If we're including names like 'rocky', why not 'cliff' lee

And if we're allowing 'cliff', what about brad 'ledge'...nm.

coal hamels

Alas, no Curt Flood.

The All-Earthquake team should be covered by none other than native Philly baseball journalist, & original Phillies "beat man" Francis Richter.

Haha, I was thinking "rocky" as in "shaky" or "bumpy," not as in a cliff or a ledge. I actually have a lot more of these handy. Just gotta figure out when to roll out the All-Religious team, the All-Fish team and the All-Muppet team, among others.

Selig wants to move hurricane games to Milwaukee(to line his daughter's pockets.)
As the home team,can we use the Brewers sign-stealing system?

Marmol hits Uggla to start the 9th. Swell.


hib to the jib

Cubs win!

Braves lose!

Braves lose. All is right in the world again.

I'm kind of surprised there hasn't been more buzz for Worley.

I'm also surprised the Braves just lost because by what I read on BL, they were penciled in for 5.5 back and zero losses for the rest of the season.

Didn't get to watch the game but I did sort of follow along on BL at work. I can't stand watching the guy pitch, but Kyle Kendrick has the least margin of error from some posters on here out of any player on the team. The guy gives up a few runs and people are questioning the worth of his existence as a human being. Put aside the fact that this is immature to begin with: the guy has an ERA in the low 3's this year bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation. He has had a very good season by every measure, certainly by any measure of fans' expectations for him before the season. And yet when he gives up a few hits people are on him like a pack of rabid wolves. I just don't get it.

It was also funny watching the replay of Polanco's GIDP in the 8th. From the comments here absolutely slamming him, I assumed it was a routine grounder. Turns out it was a web gem and he was robbed of a hit. Go figure.

Drew - I have a feeling who's headlining the all religious team. at least the abreu trade did something right.

"The guy gives up a few runs and people are questioning the worth of his existence as a human being. "

Funny.

Iceman - Worley and KK (to a lesser degree) really have saved the Phils' bacon this year.

Phils are 14-2 in the 16 GS by Worley (Worley is 9-1 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP).

Phils are 6-7 in the 13 GS by KK (KK is 4-4 with a 3.50 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP).

Phils don't get a 14-2 record with Blanton (Phils were 3-3 in his 6 GS this year) making those 16 starts I would bet. Basically is the difference right now between the Braves being neck-and-neck with the Phils. Maybe even tied/slightly ahead in the NL East.

Even with his crummy start, KK more often than not has given them a chance to win in his starts. They have scored 22 runs in the 7 games they have lost. For as much consternation KK gets, the Phils are just 7-9 in the 16 GS that Oswalt has started this year and Oswalt's overall numbers are weaker than KK as a starter.

KK's value is that he has been a back-end starter who was cost-controlled at minimum dollars. When his price tag likely reaches $4M or so next year, then his value really starts to diminish.

Even with the win today, Mets are just 4-10 vs. Phils this year & haven't won a series all year between the two teams.

Willing to bet the next time they meet in NY at the end of Sept will be meaningless too.

MG, I hadn't realized the Phils' record in Worley's starts until Drew posted it above. I think I've watched every start and I still didn't realize he has been this successful. We've all been waiting for the other shoe to drop and we've been waiting for about the entire season now. He has put together a very good, if not great, major league season for the best team in baseball, and should at least get SOME consideration for ROY.

The more I think about who is going to be the middle-innings guy in the playoffs if needed, the more I realize it's probably going to be Worley. With the way he is pitching, they can't just use him to mop up. Give him important innings in the playoffs.

Iceman - Yeah because after Bastardo/Madson there is a notable drop-off in the quality of the middle relievers. Similar to last year when it was Madson/Lidge and everybody else including Contreras.

Like Lidge more than most on here right now it seems but he is not a guy you want to see protecting a 1-run lead because of how easy baserunners can steal on him & his propensity to throw that slider in the dirt.

Why getting Oswalt back is huge because it allows them to shift Worley back into the pen. I am also psyched because it means they don't have to start the thoroughly mediocre Blanton in a playoff game either this year. All he has done in the playoffs is lay egg after egg since the Game 4 of the '08 WS. One guy the Phils are better off without at this point.

Have to see how some of the injuries play out but the only glaring weakness on this team is when the starter doesn't go 7+ IP and they need to go their middle relief.

Really been the only weakness they have had all season. That and the occasional junk-tossing RHP who has a sharp changeup and is spotting his sub-90 MPH fastball well.

Is there a chance in hell that Blanton pitches in the playoffs? Perhaps the only way we see him is if they are up by 10 runs or down by 10 runs.

Old Phan: I really think Blanton is done for the year, & can't even begin to imagine him making a potential playoff roster.

All-Earthquake team:

David Trembley, Orioles manager 2007-2010

@ MG: You were doing just swell in defending KK's contributions this year until you invoked Oswalt's stats for comparison purposes. He's been injured effectively all season, including well before he went on the DL. It's only now since he returned that he's the "old" Oswalt. So, I don't believe you can trot out Oswalt's performance to prop up Kendrick's. Not this season for certain. I'll take KK"s on its own. He has been a godsend along with Worley.

Got to see the Iron Pigs in person tonight (yes, I know you're jealous). Anyway, Brown butchered one play in left and looked awkward with a couple catches, but then again he looked awkward in RF. Overbeck hit a mammoth HR and Galvis is scrappy. Zags came in and gave up three runs - I don't think he ever see's time with the Phils again.

So everyone else decided to lose today (Braves, Brewers, Red Sox...) meaning the Phillies still hold the same ground that they coming into the day, and all their magic numbers decrease by one.

Nevermind, the Red Sox didn't lose. But we still have a 5 game lead in the loss column for best record in baseball.

@ Charlie: I was hoping for a better description of Galvis' play. When a shortstop of the future is described as "scrappy," I think of the scrapheap. That's not who I want replacing Rollins down the road.

Correction from my last post: "That's not whom I want..."

Good Morning.

I Look forward to the all-muppet team.

re: ROY

There are a lot of youngsters making significant contributions to the Phillies this year. As a starter, Worley has definitely impressed. I'd add Bastardo to that list. Who has more value?

Worley would be an all-star Ace and getting much more hype if he were on team like the Orioles or Astros. His WHIP of 1.119 is crazy good for a rookie pitcher. For reference, no qualified rookie pitcher has had a WHIP under 1.20 besides Armando Gallardo (1.19) in the past five years. Of course, in this year of the pitcher, there are several rookie starters that are racking up sick numbers that are as impressive holistically as Worley's (in order): Pineda, Beachy, Hellickson, Luebke, Collmenter...

IMO, Bastardo has been equally important to the Phillies. His slider has been unhittable this year given its angle, break and precision. His otherworldly performance this year as a LHP gave the Phillies FO the ability to put more of their top eggs in the Pence basket. Of course, the same could be said about Worley, but with three aces and Oswalt pending, the priority would likely have been LH reliever, RF, starting pitching.

Besides the story of the Aces exceeding the gargantuan expectations, the contributions of Worley, Bastardo, Stutes, Mayberry Jr. (not technically a rookie), and Brown have been the most cheer-worthy aspect of the Phillies this year.

We're pulling for you Rooks!

It's always a shame to see a rookie for any team have such a stellar start to his career, only to be outshone by another player having that much better of a start. I doubt the verbiage reads like this, but I would argue Worley's ROY status is more solid than a Kimbrel or even Freeman because of his value to the Phils overall successes this season. As someone mentioned above, noway do the Phils have as good a record in Blanton/Kendrick starts as they do in Worley starts, and I just don't see Kimbrel or Freeman's production outweighing the value that Worley has brought to the Phils this year.

All he has done in the playoffs is lay egg after egg since the Game 4 of the '08 WS.

except, you know, in 2009 when he was the Phillies most reliable pitcher for most of the year, had an above average K rate (7.5 K/9), pitched more innings than any other Phils pitcher. it doesn't look as impressive now that we've got half a dozen guys with 3 ERAs or less, but he was a huge part of that team that year.

though he's been pretty awful since then, yes.

nevermind, i missed the "playoffs" part. where's my coffee....

I'd think if the vanimal goes 13-2 wiht a 2.5 ERA he'd get a lot of ROY votes, but probably not the award. I'd rank him ahead of Espinosa, at least.

Ishmael -
Kimbrel has been the closer for the Braves all year. And because of their depth in the BP, it's possible that the Braves do just as well with Venters or O'Flaherty, who are just as unhittable (or even moreso) as Bastardo or Kimbrel.

However, if look at things like WAR and xFIP, Kimbrel is dominant -- not just for rookies, but all relievers. No one in MLB comes close. There's a bigger gap between him and the next reliever than between Hallday and CC, Verlander, or Kershaw.

Costen Shockley? I haven't seen that name since my ex-wife got me a baseball autographed by him thinking she had found me something special. I had never heard of him then.

TNA: I think that's an interesting point, that Worley might actually have had a better chance to win ROY if he was on a crappy team. He'd definitely stand out more, probably more people would be talking about him. He totally gets lost in the shuffle here, which is good for the Phillies of course, but not so much for his ROY chances.

Worley deserves to be in the discussion but this race is Craig Kimbrel's to lose.

Yeah Kimbrel has been unbelievable...he has almost as many K's as Vogelsong, Liriano among many others. Imagine how many he would have as a starter...sheesh

TNA - Because of how the award is given, I dont doubt Kimbrel is deserving. But if you had to argue who was more valuable to his team as a rookie, I don't see Kimbrel being as valuable to the Braves as Worley is/was to the Phils. That was the point, I just went about it in a convoluted manner. You said it better.

A certain John Mayberry Jr should get some consideration for ROY, too. Not that he'll win, but in terms of wOBA for rookie position players, he currently ranks 3rd in the NL. He's 3rd in the NL in HRs, having hit 12 in 216 PAs, with the leaders Espinosa and Freeman (both at 18) having more than 500 PAs each.

Just sayin...

A certain John Mayberry Jr should get some consideration for ROY, too.

He's been so good he should get consideration even though he's not a rookie! :)

And for catching on the all-Earthquake team:
Mike LAVAlliere

"He's been so good he should get consideration even though he's not a rookie! :)"

Details, details. If we can get a man to the moon, we can get Mayberry Jr. the honor of ROY.

Edmundo, according to Fangraphs, he is! :)

Espinosa looks like he's going to be a very good overall player & he does a lot of things to make up for his .228 batting average. But .228 is still .228. That disqualifies him from ROTY consideration.

Freeman's had a fine rookie year & would probably be ROTY in many years. But it's not like an .821 OPS for a 1st baseman is anything out of the ordinary. On the other hand, there's nothing ordinary about a 9-1 record, a 2.65 ERA, or a .218 BAA. If the season ended today, it should be a 2-horse race between Worley & Kimbrel. Kimbrel deserves the nod because he has just been ridiculous. But the season isn't over yet. It would only take a few bad outings to make his overall numbers look a lot less spectacular.

This has absolutely no relevance whatsoever to the ROY debate, but if you gave the Phillies a chance to take someone from the Braves and put them on their roster, Craig Kimbrel might be their first choice. He'd certainly be in the top 3. If you gave the Braves the same task, they might pick a dozen other guys before Vance Worley. Food for thought.

Just for the remainder of the season, that is, not forever.

Unless you think 1-inning relievers are more important than starting pitchers, Worley is clearly the Phils ROY.

He has no chance at the major league award because of lack of IP.

Speaking of awards, here's a case for Halladay for MVP:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/roy-halladay-for-nl-mvp/

Drew - you are probably right about Kimbrel, although a lot of fans might prefer Freeman. if you know what i mean...

DIP - i read that fangraphs article. the author had me until he implied that the voters will get it wrong b/c they won't vote for the WAR leader. i'm sorry, but it's not that cut and dried. some of the commenters were on the money, imo, stating that you could look at the WAR leaders and then sort from there, which may be a better methodology than just picking who's in 1st place in WAR.

What's Doc's UZR?

That's all that should matter for the MVP vote.

conshy matt, I agree.

Yeah, I CANNOT wait to see that new stadium next year...I'm sure that's the reason nobody comes to games in S. Florida.

I bet they still finish at or near the bottom in attendance in 2012.

The Fish's attendance will be way up next year. We'll see what happens the years after that if they don't field a decent team.

I have tickets to Saturday night's game. Looks like it's gonna be my second game in a row that's rained out.

@The THeory: Shouldn't he be on the "All Volcanic Activity" team?

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