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Thursday, August 18, 2011

Comments

Off topic, but GTownDave with the successful retweet from Murphy representing BL!

I believe Cliff Lee has thrown 2652 pitches and Roy Halladay has thrown 2766 (114 extra pitches)

To go back to using Madson last night: The mistake was made Tuesday night. That had passed. Giving him some work last night was a good thing to keep him sharp, especially since he started warming up while the game was still questionable.
I would have brought in Bastardo to pitch to Overbay and let him finish off the game** on Tuesday, just to put myself on the line.

** Barring an unlikely blowup, of course.

"Off topic, but GTownDave with the successful retweet from Murphy representing BL!"

Where?

"A few posters on here over the past few weeks have expressed worry frequently about the number of innings Halladay has pitched. But I almost never read any concern about Cliff Lee and the innings he's logged. Do you realize Lee is only about 5 innings behind Halladay after the same amount of games this year which comes to an average of less than 1/3 of inning difference per game?

Posted by: Red Cap | Thursday, August 18, 2011 at 02:35 PM "


Red Cap, how many batters has each faced and how many pitchers has each thrown?

IP doesn't tell the whole story.

That's apparently MG's way of saying, "Next topic!"

I tend to agree... he's not a Cy Young candidate now. If he wins his next 4 or 5 starts, then things change drastically!

From the last thread, re: Madson in the ninth last night.

Cholly botching the ninth inning Tuesday night shouldn't affect the way he managed the next night, contrary to those who were so offended by Madson being used in a blowout. He was warming when it was a save situation (and when I think pretty much all of BL would have wanted him in the game) and by the time it was a blowout, he was already warmed up and ready to pitch. You might as well roll him out there instead of getting another guy up really quick because you don't want to 'waste' him.

Yeah, juxtaposed with Tuesday night it makes no sense. But you can't manage like that. Bringing him in after warming him up yesterday was the right move. Warming him up and letting him stand in the bullpen picking his nose on Tuesday was not the right move.

I don't know why MG was so aghast at the notion that Kennedy could, with a gem tonight, be placed in the Phillie-Killer rotation. He's allowed 2 runs and 7 hits in 17 innings in starts against the Phils so far. Say he goes 8 innings, 1 ER tonight. That's 25 IP with an ERA right around 1.

With Tim Redding gone, someone needs to step up into the rotation, and 3 starts with a 1 ERA would be enough to put Kennedy in there if I'm the Phillie-killer manager.

As another poster here demonstrated by comparing KK to other pitchers, WAR is good for nothing.

Kennedy a CY candidate?

Gaudy record, but without the win total he's not even in the conversation. What has his run support been like? Is that the reason for the high win total? What other pitchers has he faced head-to-head besides Lee on 4/25?

Also, the Phillies offense on 4/25 was not the same offense of the Phillies today. No Utley or Pence, though Polly was on a tear.

IMHO he needs to get the ERA under 3.00 to be seriously considered.

If he beats the Phils tonight I'll be a little more impressed.

Let's play ball.

Well I for one I'm glad that there is no concern from Beerleaguer posters over the fact that Cliff Lee has averaged only about 4 pitches less per game than Halladay. We need Lee as much as we do Halladay in the post-season.

The major addition to the 2011 Phillies from the 2010 edition has been having Cliff Lee all year - both on the field and in the clubhouse. He gets very little acknowledgment on here for what a difference that has truly made .... with the exception of the moderator Jason Weitzel who did write about Cliff Lee perhaps even being the MVP of this team to date in a header a couple of days ago.

Not an entirely bad article by Gonzo but it misses the point. No one was really debating bringing out Halladay for the 9th.

Additionally, if Cholly had put Bastardo or Madson into the game in the 9th after the two leadoff hits the onus would have been on them to execute & get the job done. Tough spot but that is part of their job.

This quote from Cholly nails how he manages:

“That’s part of being a manager,” Manuel said. “I can do whatever I want to do. …‘You can’t do this, you can’t do that.’ [I’ll] do what I want to do. I’m serious. Not trying to be smart."

“Everybody nowadays definitely doesn’t go by the book. I probably go by the book more than a lot of guys. Somewhere along the lines, somebody forgot about that book. They tried to invent the game.”

When I hear that Cholly 'manages by the gut' when making decisions, you know you are talking to someone who doesn't watch baseball much because Cholly is very much a preacher of baseball managing orthodoxy. Not a heretic who goes against the established order.

http://www.csnphilly.com/08/17/11/bGonzob-Reflexive-criticism-of-Manuel-is/news_phillies.html?blockID=550518&feedID=693

Iceman - He has thrown a whopping 2 starts against the Phils with 17 total IP.

Iceman - If Kennedy shuts down the Phils tonight and then kneecaps them in a potential NLDS, he will get honorary 'Philly-killer' pledge status.

@Shawn

Thanks. I now realize that I officially don't understand Twitter and never will.

A tweet from David Murphy:

"Does everyone who is begging for a Mayberry/Ibanez platoon realize that JMJ has started every game vs LHP except Lannan since his recall?"

I hadn't realized that. Looks like the platoon is in full effect. Did you know that?

Bake McBride, don't give up, there's great stuff on there!

Also, apparently, "Mayberry has been hot" but there is "no reason for Phils to sit Ibanez":

"The Phillies aren't going to bury Ibanez. For one thing, Manuel has too much respect for him. For another, it's not how he operates. Most importantly, there's no real reason to. I mean, he has driven in 30 runs in his last 32 games.

It's all right for fans to react, and overreact, to a game or two. Managers have to have a wider focus. So Manuel will do everything he can to try to win games each night, but he also will keep an eye on the ultimate goal, which is to win 11 games in October. And he fully understands that Ibanez could be a big part of that."

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110818_Paul_Hagen__Mayberry_has_been_hot__but_no_reason_for_Phils_to_sit_Ibanez.html

Paul Hagen with kind of a 'doh' article. The real question is does Ibanez start vs LHP pitching in the playoffs. I hope not.

Bake McBride: Charlie is doing precisely what most of Beerleaguer has been asking him to do: platoon Raul and Mayberry Jr.

Interesting: Phils facing Kennedy in a potential NLDS matchup.

More Interesting: Financial puts for later this year on various financial stocks including BOA.

I think we are almost to the level of Ibanez bashing and whining where he is due for a great game tonight.

I am in no way saying he hasn't sucked this month, because no doubt he has. Just seems like every time we collectively get down on him and proclaim washed up (TM) he shows he still has some life. He is at home after all.

Watching Kennedy 3-hit the Phils again would be almost as painful as someone giving me a left-testicle contusion.

Following Ibanez's uncanny every other month trends (hot in odd numbered months, deplorable in even number months), in addition to his home/away splits, I think we can safely state that Ibanez shouldn't even make the trip for a road playoff game in October.

AL - I agree it seems to go that way.
Lets bash that SOB some more. Then once again when the playoffs come around.

Shane Victorino is in the top 10 in the majors in wRC+ (160) and is seventh in the majors in WAR (5.9). In terms of WAR, he trails only Jose Bautista in WAR/PA.

If we extrapolate his WAR out to 700 PA, he'd be at 9.9. Bautista would be at 10.2.

Victorino is having an absolutely fantastic season. Had he not made two trips to the DL, he'd be in the MVP discussion.

MG: If we're assembling a list of Phillie-killing starting pitchers, it's fairly inevitable that you're going to be dealing in small sample sizes. But any pitcher who has faced us 3 times, and dominated us 3 times, belongs on the list. How many guys are out there who have faced us 6+ times & still maintained numbers over those 6 games that far exceed their career numbers?

BAP, the idea of a Phillie killer is someone who consistently outperforms their career norms against the Phillies. Not just someone who had a couple really good starts.

If every Joe Schmo who dominated the Phillies twice over the last 5 years was a Phillie killer, the Phillie killer rotation would be pretty deep.

I consider Philly killer pitchers to be mediocre guys who somehow always beat the Phillies. Tim Lincecum may be 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA against the Phils, but he's not a Philly killer. He's an every-team killer.

When I think 'Philly-killer' I think of a guy like Chipper Jones who has a line of .333/.447/.600 with 45 HRs and 141 RBIs in 777 career ABs vs his career totals of .304/.403/.532.

That's a legit 'Philly-killer' and it is a moniker that should be handled out sparingly for those that truly deserve it.

Fat: I agree with all that, but I think 3 dominant starts in 3 tries -- from a pitcher with a 3.84 career ERA -- would meet the criteria. If we're only talking about guys with 6+ starts against the Phillies, then you're really limiting the pool of qualifying pitchers. And the reality is, if they've faced a pitcher that many times, they've probably figured him out by now -- in which case he no longer has the numbers required to be a Phillie-killer.

Word from the beat reporters: No Chooch or Big Piece tonight. My lineup guess?

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Pence
Ibanez
Mayberry Jr.
Ruiz
Martinez

So, Ruiz's testicular bruise has healed?

Ugh.. Gload starting at first. I guess he *has* to because it's a RHP. Right? That's Charlie's gut at work? Nope, it's by the book.

Doh... I meant Schneider, not Ruiz.

Straying off topic can anyone explain why the Brewers are 47-15 at home and 26-36 on the road

Jim: They steal signs at home, obviously.

So, is there a PhWAR for players against the Phils?

Gary Carter. There was a Phillie killer.

Can't explain Brewers record. Are home park factors especially favorable to their lineup? Better beer in Milwaukee? A bunch of whiners who need a home crowd to perform?

A lineup with August Ibanez, Schneider and Martinez is less than impressive. I can see lots of wasted scoring chances wasted.

****STRAWMAN ALERT:****


"Well I for one I'm glad that there is no concern from Beerleaguer posters over the fact that Cliff Lee has averaged only about 4 pitches less per game than Halladay."


how many batters has each faced and how many pitchers has each thrown?

Posted by: Bigotto | Thursday, August 18, 2011 at 03:06 PM
* * * **
I got a good laugh out of the image conjured by this typo. Thanks!

Also, I was away for about 3 weeks and missed some darn good Phillies' baseball! When they lose now, I barely raise an eyebrow. I simply shrug and say "Well, you can't win 'em all." Very impressed with the way the offense has performed for the past month or two, in addition to our terrific pitching.

Hope Halladay, Lee, Hamels & Oswalt will all be feeling fine through the postseason.

Pence has been a fine addition, love his enthusiasm with fans, press, and especially the game itself. I think it's been great for the team to acquire someone whose natural enthusiasm can only flourish on a winning team, and potentially be contagious.

Guess Mayberry will start for Victorino - His suspension starts tonight.

GB - and he only gets suspended for two games.

Matt Gelb (via Twitter): "Two games for Victorino. Starts tonight."

My sincere mea culpa to whomever I deemd crazy for thinking the suspension would be reduced on appeal. You were correct, & I stand corrected. Still no excuse for no Giants suspensions, though.

Kennedy may be getting a gift tonight with this lineup.

So, Kennedy goes for league leading 16th victory and could leading the league in victories get him the cy young? It still seems like Roy could've had number 16 the other night if .... well, you know.

No Howard, no Victorino, no Ruiz? Feels like a loss.

DH Phils: Most games do.

Beyond any kind of BL jinx, my guess is that if this game gets played tonight, Kennedy gets rocked. The guy plays a change and slider/cutter off of a fast (but a decently commanded) fastball.

Utley has looked off-kilter recently but tonight he and Ibanez go beserk.

I meant "flat" fastball, not "fast" fastball. His fastball sits 89-92.

Kennedy for Cy? NFW.

Did Drew miss the day(s) where we endlessly beat the dead horse, then threw it in a wood chipper, for good measure, as to the value of the "Win" stat?

Though Kennedy's peripherals are certainly stellar and worthy of minor discussion, Wins being the basis for the Cy Young is a bit comical.

No Vic, no Howard, no Chooch and no Polly... this lineup likely explodes for a dozen runs due to the Beerleaguer Corollary.

There was someone earlier who raised the "Schneider is the best backup catcher in baseball" debate.
With Mauer playing RF tonight, and no other catcher on the 25-man roster, he automatically goes to the top of the list as the best "backup" catcher.

TNA: Still makes Schneider the best in the NL? ;-)

The Gloader gets to wipe off the dust of his 1B glove and play in the field.

This is the weakest looking lineup of the year on paper....which means they'll probably score 10.

BAP, there are no actual criteria for the Phillie-killer label, but to me, the notion is that a player significantly outperforms their career norms over a sufficiently sized sample.

That would necessitate that the pithcer in question would HAVE to have more than a handful starts, since it would get to the point that the pitchers is outperforming his career rates even when intuition would dictate that he should have regressed by now.

Tim Redding really is the perfect example. In 179 G and 144 GS in his career, he has a 4.95 ERA. Against the Phillies in 14 GS, he has a 3.01 ERA.

Phillie-killer.

Cholly must be deep in thought for tonight's batting order. I'll give it a whirl:

Rollins
Gload
Pence
Utley
Ibanez
Mayberry
Schneider
Valdez
Worley

With all those injuries, Cliff Lee might be the first bat off the bench.

Vic's suspension comes at a terrible time because, with Mayberry needed in CF, and Francisco unable to play 1st base, that leaves only the horrible Ross Gload to start.

Vic is having a fine season, but there's a reason there's a minimum to qualify for the batting title, for instance. A great season over 700 PAs (which is what Vic had last year) is far more impressive than a great season over 550 PAs.

Not to mention if Vic has any kind of slump in the last 40 games it will have a bigger impact on his numbers since he's only got 366 ABs right now.

But the almighty WAR says he's the greatest, so he must be, right?

Mayberry will bat above Gload for sure.

Who is our emergency catcher? Valdez? Chooch was in the dugout last night, but would not have been able to enter the game legally (he was not wearing pinstripes).

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