Preview: The last time Roy Halladay (15-5, 2.56) faced Cincinnati, he allowed a season-high 11 hits, though only three runs, over seven innings. The time before that, it was postseason magic for Doc and the Phils. Due to Irene, Halladay hasn't started since August 21 - and that outing was limited to five innings due to the weather. In all, the reigning Cy Young winner has thrown just 83 pitches over the last two weeks. Bronson Arroyo (8-10, 5.02) has horrible career numbers vs. the Phils, having gone 1-6 with a 7.13 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts). He also faced them in Game 2 of last year's NLDS, allowing three runs (one earned) over 5 1/3 innings.
The lineup: Victorino CF, Polanco 3B, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Pence RF, Ibanez LF, Ruiz C, Valdez SS, Halladay P. Of that group, the ones with good numbers against Arroyo are Howard (3-for-8, 2 doubles), Pence (11-for-32, 6 XBH), Polanco (8-for-19), Utley (4-for-11, HR) and in very small sample sizes, Ruiz (1-for-3, BB), Ibanez (2-for-5) and Victorino (2-for-6). Well, that's just about everyone, except for Valdez and Halladay, who have never faced Arroyo before. Should be some runs scored.
***NEPP: Howard isn't as potential a Hall of Famer as Utley? Or even more so?
It's like people are going out of their way to prove my case.
****
You really think Howard has HoF potential at this point? Really? He plays the easiest position on the diamond and his offense isn't even close to elite now.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:04 PM
I was expecting runs scored last night, too. Bailey had a different idea.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:04 PM
Only way I see the Reds winning this is if the Reds get a few HRs against Halladay.
Definitely 'feels like a win.'
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:05 PM
And it carries over to the game thread ...
Fat - after Drew, this is probably mostly our fault.
Posted by: Matt H | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:05 PM
NEPP, quit feeding the troll. Clearly he is conveniently forgetting the 4+ years of vitriol spewed, openly and often, against the likes of Pat Burrell and David Bell. He's just looking to stir the pot.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:06 PM
And by "our" I mean "your" of course
Posted by: Matt H | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:06 PM
There is no excuse for the Phils not to win this game. Pitching match-up is ridiculously in the Phil's favor. Hopefully the offense shook off its rust last night.
Posted by: SLO Phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:07 PM
I'm just sick of the BS racism excuse every time someone dares to say Utley is a superior player to Howard. Utley is better and pretty much always has been. It has nothing to do with his skin color when people acknowledge it.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:08 PM
NEPP, it typically comes from those who don't understand the simple nuance of baseball that doesn't equate one position player to another at a different position. Very "fansince09" mentality.
At the root of it is a simple expectations vs. performance. Those who can't comprehend that expectations are different by position, do not understand an important aspect of baseball. Unfortunate that they're still quick to use SABR metrics without understanding these things.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:12 PM
CJ: This is why people say Utley is better than Howard:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=1679&playerid3=2154&playerid4=&playerid5=
It's because sabermetrics says it's not even close, and most people on this blog subscribe to sabermetric thought. Unless WAR has a racial component, race is not the reason people think Utley is better than Howard.
Posted by: DH Phils | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:12 PM
Utley on. Howard up. Confidence low. Hope I'm wrong.
Posted by: Bake McBride was Here | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:14 PM
Have I just never noticed Arroyo's unorthodox leg kick in his windup delivery, or is that new? Kind of distracting.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:14 PM
Still plenty of good seats available. I guess the fans in Cincy don't pay to see Votto on a mediocre team, huh?
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:16 PM
Oh well, at least he didn't strike out looking. That's a step in the right direction.
Posted by: Bake McBride was Here | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:16 PM
Dont worry, in 2 days, that ball is gone. Not September yet.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:17 PM
The average Phillies fan with no interest in sabermetrics thinks Ryan Howard is on the same level as Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez because of his RBIs. It's the sabermetrically-inclined fans who "bash" Howard.
Feel free to disagree with the tenets of sabermetrics. You can legitimately argue that sabermetrics undervalue Howard and that some fans overvalue sabermetrics. Implying that race must be the reason people think Utley is better than Howard shows an apparent ignorance to what is talked about every day on this blog: WAR, wOBA, and differences in positional replacement level.
Posted by: DH Phils | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:17 PM
Cincy has never had great attendance...for one, its a tiny metropolitan area.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:18 PM
This blog has gotten depressing lately...can we please get back to enjoying the 84-46 first place Phillies? Seriously, the team is 5 games up in the loss column for best record in BASEBALL. http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings?group=9
I forgot, wins are not a good indictor of how well you are doing according to BL.
Posted by: keith | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:18 PM
(by that, I mean ignorance to the fact that WAR, wOBA, and positional value are talked about every day here, not necessarily ignorance to the statistics themselves)
Posted by: DH Phils | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:18 PM
What's up with Doc lately. Lots of bloopy soft hits for like the past month now.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:20 PM
Doc let the leadoff man on? No way!
Posted by: Spitz | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:20 PM
DH Phils, very well put and all very fair statements.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:21 PM
NEPP, yeah, that was my snarky remark about a post earlier today about having a less than great team, with a star player to generate your revenue. Though, I don't think anyone can argue the fact that if you win, the butts will show up in the seats.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:22 PM
One of the things I've noticed lately is that the Phil's pitchers have had trouble in the 1st inning. Cole's start aside last night, I can't remember the last time a SP had a 1-2-3 1st inning. Could be my imagination, though.
Posted by: SLO Phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:23 PM
Yeah, I recall the post.
More wins equals more attendance (outside of Florida basically).
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:23 PM
That were scary. But now I'm sensing a DP.
Posted by: Bake McBride was Here | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:24 PM
And by "DP" I meant strikeout.
Posted by: Bake McBride was Here | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:25 PM
Keith: I think that's a lot of the reason why, we have less complaining about to do about the actual team.
Posted by: Andrew | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:25 PM
Nice play, Doc. Way to shake off that rust with a nice catch.
Posted by: Andrew | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:26 PM
SLO Phan: Halladay has a lot of not 1-2-3 innings, & not just in the 1st.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:26 PM
SSS alert, but judging by Halladay's velocity on his cutter and the lone 4-seamer Gameday shows him throwing, he's either affected by the layoff in the same manner that Hamels was, or the gun in Cincy may be a bit on the slow side. Either way, it helps reassure that Hamels should be just fine.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:28 PM
Nice job by Doc to get out of that inning. Didn't give in to Votto.
How is Cairo hitting 5th though? Is that something he has done much of this year? Odd lineup choice by Baker.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:28 PM
Gtown: Agreed. Just seems like the pitchers have labored in the 1st inning lately.
Posted by: SLO Phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:31 PM
I really have not missed Raul in this lineup at all
Posted by: agroupofletters | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:34 PM
Well, that was fun. Can Ibañez go back to warming the bench now?
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:34 PM
Very replacement level-esque, on the part of Mr. Ibanez.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:35 PM
WP: Arroyo only does the leg kick when no runners are on base, which is why we're seeing a lot of it tonight.
Posted by: Dickie Thong | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:35 PM
Looks like the law of averages may be bringing the Phils back to earth v Arroyo. Can't score 9 in 2 innings every time.
Posted by: Hope SE | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:36 PM
Keith - Agreed.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:37 PM
"This blog has gotten depressing lately...can we please get back to enjoying the 84-46 first place Phillies?"
S'matter? You don't enjoy talking about how the man with one of the best HR per AB ratios in history, and with one of the best RBI per AB ratios in history, is an albatross?
Is there something wrong with you?
Posted by: phlipper | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:45 PM
Single Season HR Peak:
Ted Williams: 43
Dave Kingman: 48
Clearly, Kingman is the better player.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:47 PM
there's something vaguely fascistic about that leg kick.
Posted by: bullit | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:48 PM
OK. 2 outs. Now it's time for the offense to shine.
Posted by: SLO Phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:48 PM
Shine Fail.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:50 PM
Top 10 players in hr/ab in history:
1. Mark McGwire 10.61 R
2. Babe Ruth+ 11.76 L
3. Barry Bonds 12.92 L
4. Ryan Howard (31) 13.27 L
5. Jim Thome (40) 13.62 L
6. Ralph Kiner+ 14.11 R
7. Albert Pujols(31) 14.12 R
8. Harmon Killebrew 14.22 R
9. Sammy Sosa 14.47 R
10. Alex Rodriguez(35) 14.59 R
Slouches, one and all.
Posted by: phlipper | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:52 PM
If the Phils would just leave the bats on their shoulders, they'd have about 5 walks instead of 5 weak popups.
Posted by: curt | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:53 PM
I was getting ready to type something about trotting out Cairo and Renteria every day, then remembered how old Polanco and Ibanez are.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:53 PM
Look at Valdez trying to secure a playoff roster spot. Nice play at short.
Posted by: Andrew | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:55 PM
In the history of the game - players with a better ab/rbi ratio than Ryan Howard.
Babe Ruth
Lou Gehrig
Hank Greenberg
Ted Williams
Jimmie Foxx
Mark McGuire
Bunch of bums.
Posted by: phlipper | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:58 PM
1. Mark McGwire 10.61 R, 162 OPS+
2. Babe Ruth+ 11.76 L, 206 OPS+
3. Barry Bonds 12.92 L, 181 OPS+
4. Ryan Howard (31) 13.27 L, 138 OPS+
5. Jim Thome (40) 13.62 L, 147 OPS+
6. Ralph Kiner+ 14.11 R, 149 OPS+
7. Albert Pujols(31) 14.12 R, 170 OPS+
8. Harmon Killebrew 14.22 R, 143 OPS+
9. Sammy Sosa 14.47 R, 128 OPS+
10. Alex Rodriguez(35) 14.59 R, 145 OPS+
Sosa is the only one with a lower OPS+ and that includes his ridiculously bad pre-steroid seasons. Even Killebrew's number, which is close, is only close due to his bad dip at the very end of his career in his late 30s.
Terrible comp.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 07:59 PM
Mike Morse has Jurrjens number tonight.
Posted by: Spitz | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:00 PM
Valdez is on the roster. He's actually right there with Vic as one of the guys you want at the plate when you need a big hit.
Posted by: curt | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:00 PM
"Sosa is the only one with a lower OPS+"
Right. He has weaknesses as a player.
He has also hit HRs and driven in runs at rates equaled by only a handful of players in the history of the game.
He doesn't walk much. His OBP isn't very good. He strikes out a lot.
But when there are runners on base, and when there are runners in scoring position, he makes up for his weaknesses with prodigious production.
You can't have everything in life. He's not a perfect player, get over it.
And in the meantime, enjoy sitting back and watching one of the best cleanup hitters/run producers in the history of the game.
Unbelievable.
Posted by: phlipper | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:03 PM
"Neither you nor any other poster here ever says anything negative about Utley while bashing away on J-Roll, Howard, Ibanez etc. etc."
You must be confusing me with other posters. I've been known to say negative things about everyone on the Phillies, even Halladay. If you'd like me to recap the negative things I've said about Utley, I've said that his defense is vastly overrated, his throwing arm is terrible, his offense is a shell of what it used to be, he can't stay on the field, and he goes through prolonged slumps every season in which he's absolutely unbearable to watch.
Nonetheless, he's still one of the top 5 2nd baseman in the game & it requires an incredibly active imagination to argue that he's just as deserving of criticism as Howard, Rollins, or (seriously?) Ibanez.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:03 PM
Howie,
.ti oD
Posted by: Bake McBride was Here | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:04 PM
Nobody ever said he was a perfect player...in fact, we're just saying Utley is better and has been.
Why people argue it is a mystery to me at this point.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:05 PM
"Valdez is on the roster. He's actually right there with Vic as one of the guys you want at the plate when you need a big hit."
And on the mound when you need a big out.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:05 PM
About damn time.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:05 PM
Yeah, BAP really is an equal opportunity criticizer.
On cue, Ryno with a bomb and 2 RBI's.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:05 PM
the bum !!
Posted by: bullit | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:05 PM
That was absolutely bound to happen after he spent the entire day as the subject of Beerleaguer scorn.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:06 PM
Like that.
Posted by: Bake McBride was Here | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:06 PM
Harmon Killebrew would have hit that much deeper into the seats. Howard sucks.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:06 PM
Anomaly... not a sign... no hot Sept coming.
No sir.
Posted by: Cyclic | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:06 PM
DOMINATE THE GOODNESS
Posted by: UBIK | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:06 PM
Worthless HR
Worthless RBIs
I'll take both
Posted by: No1 | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:07 PM
Dare I say that was a bandbox homer, or is that a whole "pot, meet kettle" kinda thing?
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:07 PM
12 more if he wants another 40 HR season.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:07 PM
Is there was a better way to measure RBI efficiency that was more than just BA with RISP? Perhaps weighted by number of opportunities somehow. Someone mentioned Howard having a large number of opportunities as being a reason he has so many RBIs in one of the many, many Howard==overrated discussions.
Posted by: Andrew | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:08 PM
Shouldn't he have been saving that HR for Thursday, when the calendar turns over?
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:08 PM
Of course, the way some people look at it, it's purely coincidence that he is only behind Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Hank Greenberg, Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, and Mark McGuire in ab/rbi. I mean, the fact that he's seventh behind six hall of famers and the biggest juicer in history is purely coincidence.
And the proof? Because his career OPS+ isn't high as some people - who seem to enjoy whining about imperfection rather than enjoy watching excellence - would like. Because if a player isn't perfect, he's an albatross.
Posted by: phlipper | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:08 PM
From a WAR perspective, Chase's walk was actually more valuable than Howard's HR. Believe me - I plugged it into my handy dandy black box, and it said so.
Posted by: Spitz | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:08 PM
phlipper, it has nothing to do with bashing Howard to say Utley is the better player. Why people cant accept that is mind-boggling.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:10 PM
Actually, Utley's BB was valuable. Arroyo seems like a different pitcher throwing from the stretch. Personally, I like having both Utley & Howard.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:10 PM
I know RBI's are a statistic that is scorned by many but can we all agree on something here.
Had he not gotten hurt last year there is a very good chance that Howard would be on pace for 6 straight seasons of 130+ RBI's. That is pretty good no matter what statistic or metric system you subscribe too.
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:10 PM
Yeah, Spitz, but the HR actually was the optimal outcome in that spot.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:10 PM
WP: There's a reason that Howard's homerun totals on the road are almost exactly the same as his homerun totals on the road: because Citizens Bank Park is an absolutely average homerun park & has been ever since they moved the fences back.
Great American BallPark, on the other hand is a bandbox.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:11 PM
Arroyo Career Splits:
Bases Empty: .740 OPS
Man on 1B: .806 OPS
Arroyo 2011 Split:
Bases Empty: .835 OPS
Man on 1B: .939 OPS
So yeah, Utley was integral to that HR there.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:12 PM
Willard Preacher, no the optimal outcome (from the team's perspective) is clearly walking the bases loaded and getting a grand slam. From a player's perspective, though, getting a HR is clearly the most optimal thing they can do on an individual level.
Posted by: Andrew | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:12 PM
Andrew - Howard's had a lot of opportunities, no doubt.
He also has phenomenal numbers with runners on base and runners in scoring position.
He also hits HRs at a prodigious rate.
His career rbi/ab ratio is not simply a factor of having a lot of runners on base.
Recently someone posted an article that discussed rbi production weighted for number of opportunities - but it was limited in scope to this year (when Howard has been relatively down), and failed to factor in the rbi created when you knock yourself in with an HR. In other words, it was a hatchet job.
His career rbi production stands for itself. Sabermetricians can whine all they want about advanced statistics, but Howard has produced runs as well as all but a handful of players in the history of the game.
Posted by: phlipper | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:13 PM
Disagree WP - "Optimal" would have been a 15 pitch AB followed by a HR.
Posted by: Spitz | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:13 PM
"phlipper, it has nothing to do with bashing Howard to say Utley is the better player."
NEPP - I never said it was. I don't think it's "bashing." I just think it's stupid and meaningless.
They are completely different ballplayers that play different roles on the team. Saying one is better or worse than the other means absolutely nothing.
Utley is a great player in a number of ways.
Howard is a run producer that ranks with the all time greats in the history of the game.
Posted by: phlipper | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:16 PM
Comparing players is something all fans do...regardless of position.
I love that Doc can look like crap in the 1st and still have a scoreless game going through 4. He's just so unassuming in his dominance.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:17 PM
Jack?
Anyone seen Jack?
Posted by: Albert Ross | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:18 PM
I'm going out on a limb and saying that Halladay isn't giving this lead up.
Posted by: Iceman | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:19 PM
Halladay is probably annoyed by all the Kershaw for CY talk that's going around...expect him to go on a 5-6 game run of dominance to finish out the year.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:20 PM
"Is there was a better way to measure RBI efficiency that was more than just BA with RISP?"
BA with RISP doesn't capture it all because some RBIs come with no RISP. In fact, some come with no one on base at all. But a solo homerun is every bit as good as a single which drives a guy home from 3rd.
By my definition, an "RBI opportunity" is the sum of all men on base during a player's official ABs, plus the number of his official ABs (since every AB is 1 RBI opportunity, by defintion), plus the number of men driven home by way of sacrifice fly (since a sac fly isn't an official AB). Then, take the guy's RBI total, divide it by his RBI opportunities, and you could get a pretty accurate measure of how good a guy really is at driving home runs. I have no idea if such information is available anywhere.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:20 PM
Victorino is a talented player of the sport of baseball.
Posted by: Bake McBride was Here | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:21 PM
Just another worthless hr by Howard. Imagine how good this team would be if we had that stiff huff or Carlos Pena. Great job Howard to get doc a little early lead.
Posted by: The hook | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:22 PM
BAP: I'd be interested to see those totals. Do BR or Fangraphs have an API to query that sort of stuff?
Posted by: Andrew | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:24 PM
Vic is definitely having one hell of a season.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:24 PM
Nice job of stranding Victorino by Utley.
Posted by: Bake McBride was Here | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:25 PM
Andrew: So far as I know, I just made that stat up. There is a website that lays out players' RBI opportunities, & percentage of successes. But I think its definition of an RBI opportunity refers to having men on base or in scoring position -- which doesn't really capture the full range of potential RBI opportunities. Last I checked, a run scored on a solo homerun counts just as much as a run driven home from 3rd base.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:30 PM
Look at that fat slob nearly crushing the little girl when Polanco caught the ball
Posted by: John Jitbag | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:30 PM
Love the 8 pitch inning by Doc.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:33 PM
i think polly head-butted him.
Posted by: bullit | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:36 PM
Iceman - Nope. Not unless Cholly leaves him out there too late and the Reds tag one out. Strike zone has been generous tonight and Doc had really settled in since the 2nd.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:36 PM
I actually haven't said anything negative about Hunter Pence since he came to the Phillies. I'm sure I eventually will, though.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:36 PM
Pence comes through again.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:36 PM
Vlad Pence.
Posted by: curt | Tuesday, August 30, 2011 at 08:37 PM