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Friday, August 19, 2011

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Big, I guess I wasn't so much comparing to my expectations of Oswalt, but of my expectations of Oswalt and Blanton combined.

This season, just looking at their numbers as starters, Worley and KK have a combined ERA of 3.13 over 149.1 IP.

I just don't know if I expected Oswalt/Blanton to combine for that low of an ERA, but most of that has to do with how little I expected out of Blanton, and I also didn't expect Roy Oswalt to pitch to his sub-2 ERA from his time last year as a Phillie.

RE: MVP Race

Keith Law did a column on the AL (he picks Bautista) and at the end mentions that Halladay would be his pick in the NL.

As a new poster to BL, after browsing through the last thread, I am hoping some can tell me the distinction between a Debbie Downer and a Negative Nancy. There must be some sort of metric that would clarify this.

On another note, I'm hoping for a real beat down of Livan Hernandez tonight, but I am not entirely optimistic. For all the years he has been playing (at least 40 isn't it?) this guy seems to turn in more unlikely performances than almost any baseball player I can remember. Nothing about him really suggests ballplayer, and yet…

Does this make me a Debbie Downer?

Bizzare how the rotation has met and most likely exceeded expectations. No one could have predicted that they would be this good without KYJ and Oswalt for extended periods. stunning really.

While searching for the legend of bruceg, I stumbled across this gem from MG from August 27, 2007:

"If the Phils were willing to increase their payroll next year, I would love to see them sign Pedro Feliz to a 1 or 2-yr deal. Yeah, he doesn't get on base enough because he never walks but the guy is a vacuum cleaner at 3B and would be good for .250 with at least 20 HRs at CBP. Give up a little offense for his stellar defense. Hell the Phils play Nunez for the same purpose and he has zero power."

I have no problem with a pitcher winning an MVP award, but there's no way that Halladay is deserving this season. I'd pick at least 5 position players before him.

Weather looking iffy in DC. Looks like the end of the world here in Montco.

Hmmm... can't find the first bruceg proclamation. It happened during the 2007 season where he gave up on the team early before a comeback and he became the poster child for declaring the game or season over. I think this pre-dates THe Dude.

And he shall be Livan.
And his name is silly.
And he shall be Livan.
Last Friday he owned the Phillies.
And he shall be Livan.
Something Something Jennifer Tilly.
He shall be Livan.

Season = Over ...this offense is the same as its been for the last four years. Consistently inconsistent....they score 20 runs twice this season yet then they struggle to put anything to follow it up with.

Posted by: THe Dude | Thursday, June 26, 2008 at 04:33 PM


hib to the jib

Fatti, I agree about Blanton - I didn't expect much either, and using the b00b method, this season:


Worley >>> may expectations for Blanton.


I would not be surprised, that if Blanton's health checks out, to see the Phillies try to move him during the offseason (and yes, they'll have to eat salary).

Duuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuude!

Nice to see you back!

Ummm....."my expectations for Blanton".

Otto - (Yeah, it's impossible not to read that name as Big Otto) Blanton could never get healthy enough for the Phillies to be able to trade him this offseason. It simply cannot and will not happen. Sunk cost. But I promise you he'll be wasting a roster spot sometime next season and will generate many Danys Baez-like posts when Charlie insists on using him.

Hmmmm, mistaking my name.

Maybe I should do it this way:

It is, however, pronounced like "Big Otto". :)

But the name doesn't make any sense. What about Biggot-too? Or Biggot-Two? What exactly does Biggot-to mean?

Oh great, another night of Wheels verbally fellating Livan Hernandez.

Yeah, this game's going to be delayed. Why start it?

smitty, if you recall, Narcissus Schweitzer accused me of being a bigot because I believe there is ample historical precedent to be suspicious of the 'declared' ages s of Dominican prospects. He has never once answered the question as to whether he thinks MLB is bigoted because they actually have a squad in the MLB office dedicated to investigagting and acertaining players ages.

I use the handle 'Bigotto' because it adds a 'Spanish flavor' to the word 'bigot'. He incorrectly thinks I did it to honor him, but only a vain, narcissistic leftist as he could possibly confuse mockery with honor.

I had about 4 comebacks to Fata's 7:06 PM post, but each one would be seriously stretching my First Admendment rights.

Stupid rain

From the last thread . . .

Yes, THe Dude was the "season = over" guy. Not "The Dude," but "THe Dude." When he wasn't posting "season = over," I believe he once showed up and posted about the threesome in which he had participated on the previous night.

donc: Yes, I remember that doc poster well. I think we've discussed him on previous threads. And, yeah, he was very amusing at the time but doesn't look so laughable anymore.

Jefferson Navy Yard!

"What's bruceg's enduring legacy?"

bruceg used to post back when the Phillies were just starting to be good. He never posted any substantive commentary. He would just show up as soon as the Phillies fell behind & announce that he was turning the game off. And then you wouldn't hear from him again until 3 days later when the Phillies fell behind again.

KF: Years ago,most people in Berks took LV to mean Lebanon Valley. You had the Lebanon Valley Railroad,and the Lebanon Valley League was a big deal in baseball, extending into western Berks. North of you was considered the "Allentown area", or Lehigh County. Lehigh Valley is a relatively new term to me. Maybe people added the H to make LHV different from LV.

No RobHamp - that would make you a Negative Nancy.

At least Oswalt didn't start pitching before they put the tarp on the field.

re: "Jefferson Navy Yard"

1-800 Jeff now!

Phlipper, If it makes me an NN as opposed to a DD, than there must be a distinction, but I am still waiting for a way to measure it: WARF? Waffling Against Rosy Forecasts?

Bigot-to: I see you're still obsessed with me, sir. Send me your cell number so we can begin sexting.

And yes, passing judgments and accusations on an individual based on the behavior of other individuals who share their race/ethnicity is bigotry, and those who do so are bigots.

The parallel goes something like this:

1a. There are a lot of urban African American gang members.

1b. There are a lot of Hispanic ballplayers who have lied about their age.

2a. Ryan Howard is an African American who grew up in an urban environment.

2b. Jose Contreras is a Hispanic ballplayer.

3a. It is appropriate to suspect Ryan Howard of being a gang member.

3b. It is appropriate to suspect Jose Contreras of lying about his age.

See how fun that was? I know you're absolutely DYING to talk about it. You've brought up the subject at least a half dozen times this month alone, and you've even changed your username in honor of it. Seriously, your bromance with me is getting excessive. I'll send you nakie pics if that's what it takes to satisfy this man crush you have.

RobHamp. You have to take the time of the day and divide by the number of posts made previously in that thread. Then, you have to multiply by the number of other posters who have made similar waffling against rosy forecasts. Once you've obtained that number, subtract the square root of pi from pi times the number of times that week BAP has posted "This game looks like a loss" in the first inning.

If your final result is odd, you're a DD. If it's even, you're an NN.

Unless it's Wednesday, in which case the categories are reversed.

Wow - I was thinking of accepting your offer to join your club, Bigot-to; but now that I've read Will's post, no way.

I'll leave you to look over Will's photos on your own.

I aim to please, Phlipper. Biggoto is third only to my wife and mother for people who have conversations about me, and since both of them have already seen me naked, I felt it was only fair to offer.

I don't even want to know what type of woman would be willing to marry a guy who doesn't like Dom Brown. She probably hates dogs, too.

I've never thought that Schweitzer was that off-base of a poster. Some of what he's said about Brown has been hyperbolic (e.g. that he really struggled this year when he had an okay rookie season, but it's hardly madness to look at Brown and doubt that he's all he's cracked up to be.

She's probably in a gang and lies about her age.

I like Dom as much as anyone here. Just don't think that bringing him up when we did was the right decision. I'd be willing to bet that many more of you agree with me on this today than back in Spring Training when I first made the comment.

Of course, some BL posters will continue to say that I hate him and think he'll never amount to anything when the facts are that I said that I didn't think he was ready in 2011 and that he (and the team) would benefit more from a full season of Brown in AAA than an early season callup.

This feels like a rain-out.

Whether or not Brown was "ready", he posted a 99 OPS+ in his time this year in the majors. Compared to Ben Francisco's 87 OPS+, that was a pretty decent upgrade. Now compared to Pence or Mayberry 2.0 it's not so impressive, but at the time Brown upgraded the offense of the team.

re: posters

I used to think that Awl(Bigotto) and Will Schweitzer were maybe the same poster with two different handles because they seemed to have a similar personality and posting style. However when they started fighting, I realized that was in all likelihood not true.

Not necessarily true, BO (I like that acronym). What about alter ego? The real question is whether Awl or Will is the "real" person. Something to ponder while the raindrops fall.

Btw, what is the weather prognostication?

Naah...I use my own name on BL. I suppose I could change it to "Otto's Mancrush", but I've never been so enamored with a person I met on the internet to name myself in honor of them.

reminds me of Andy Kaufman

I think the Phillies, in general, handled the Dom Brown situation quite well.

When Dom Brown came up on May 21st, these were the OPS of the Phillies three possible corner OF coming into his first game:

Mayberry: .717
Francisco: .699
Ibanez: .665

The Phillies had scored just 3.87 runs per game heading into the game on May 21st, and the biggest reason for that was the production from the Phillies corner OFs. The Phillies offense had been pretty pathetic up until that point, and the team was really only 27-17 at the time because the pitching was performing extremely well (3.2 RA/G).

In his teim in the majors, Brown showed really good plate discipline, almost walking as much as he struck out, and, although his power didn't show (after his injury in the preseason, it was said often that his power would probably take almost a season to fully return), he showed lots of promising sides on the offensive side of the ball.

He was demoted with a .728 OPS, which isn't much better than what he replaced (as of May 21st), but it IS better.

He was only demoted because the team brought in Hunter Pence, and NO ONE would have ever argued that Dom Brown should be playing over an All Star outfielder. Also, because they wanted him to play every day.

Yes, his defense sucked in RF, but you can learn defense in the majors just as well as you can learn it in the minors. Also, the guy he was replacing in RF (Francisco), while better, isn't exactly Ichiro out there in the field.

Lastly, Manuel is the one who wanted Brown up most of all, so it couldn't have been such a terrible idea to bring him up.

nicely done.

Also, Brown's .728 OPS is STILL better than Ibanez's.

I have not exactly been wowed by Domonic Brown's performance at the major league level. In fact, other than his plate discipline, I haven't been impressed by anything about him up to this point and I have real doubts that he's going to start the 2012 season on the major league roster. But, considering what we were getting from our RF position at the time, calling him up was undoubtedly the right move.

Fatalo, have you noticed if any talk shows or sports writers have picked up on your analysis of the Phillies offense pre and post Utley?

whitey, yeah, the cat's out of the bag.

Took a lot longer than it should have, but I heard it on CSN the other day (no exact numbers, just the sentiment that the offense has been better since Utley returned).

And on that note, Phillies at 4.83 runs per game since Utley's return, still good for the best in the NL over that span (5th in the majors).

Fatalotti- my guess is Ricky Bo/MG told Barkann to use the Pre/Post-Utley stats on the air and pass them off as his own.

Wasn't Brown demoted before the Pence trade?

I'll agree that you can learn defense in the majors as well as the minors, and if we had the playoff chances of the Mets or Marlins, I would have beat the drum for the kid to spend the full year in the big leagues. However, as a championship contender with an abundance of OF who have major league experience, they had the luxury of keeping Brown under team control for an extra season at a prime age, during which time he would be coached by one of the greatest hitters of our generation.

Remember, Brown struggled in the Winter League and had completely changed his batting stance twice between last season and Spring Training.

And while he's marginally better than Ibanez, we're committed to Raul's salary this season. Is the Brown offensive upgrade (and defensive downgrade) worth paying Raul AND losing a year of Domonic under team control?

If his presence isn't crucial to a 2011 championship season (which it isn't and never was), why waste a year of keeping him in a Phillies uniform at an affordable price?

In the end, Amaro made the right decision.

Maybe I'm remembering the Schweitzer thing wrong (I wish I didn't remember it at all), but I thought it all started with a comment he made that Domonic Brown wasn't even worthy of discussion because he hasn't done anything significant yet, or something stupid like that, and it escalated from there. I don't think it specifically had to do with whether or not he should be on the team (which could have had legitimate arguments either way). It's just what it morphed into, in between ad hominem attacks.

Underrated Schweitzer moment: his week-long tangent in July of last year calling for the team to be blown up and trying to rally a group up to go tar and feather Rube.

Iceman, I always knew that RickyG would try and screw me over.

Yes, Will. No quid pro quo on Brown. He was pretty much gone by the time the trade was made. I don't recall what prompted the move other than he needed at bats and lots of reps in the minors to get some flow back in his game.

I do wonder whether his mind is confused by all this up and down. I really thought he was in the bigs to stay the last time we was recalled, but I supported his latest demotion, because he needed...and still does...a number of games at AAA under his belt before his next foray at the mlb level.

Please, someone, an update on the weather and whether it looks optimistic that the game will be played.

Kyle Kendrick? Who is our minor league spot starter tomorrow? Nate Bump?

Tonight's situation really sucks. We could use a rainout. Oswalt was warm and ready and now has to endure a rain delay, coming off an injury. KK is unavailable because he's pitching for Cole. Herndon is unavailable because he pitched three innings last night.

That leaves: Schwimer, Lidge, Stutes, Bastardo, Madson.

Not the ideal way to get through 9 innings. Maybe Valdez?

mainerob: apparently they are restarting at 9:35 EST.

9:35 estimated start time I saw.

Man, I don't miss squeegeeing fields during rain delays in my days working afor my college's athletic dept.

Once had to get a soccer game in during a torrential downpour, and we had end up using standalone benches to squeegee water off the corners of field while the game was being played!

I'm dismayed that (a) the Nationals were dumb enough to start this game in the first place & (b) the umps appear dumb enough to restart it. Apparently Kendrick will be pitching. If I were Charlie I'd run out all bench guys. The field is an injury waiting to happen, & more rain is on the way.

Iceman: It didn't begin that way, but in a moment of irritation at all of the gushing about Brown, as if it were a foregone conclusion that he was going to be Darryl Strawberry, I said something to the effect of "When he does something worth mentioning in the big leagues, I'll sing his praises."

I don't recall ever suggesting that the team be "blown up." I have been overly critical of some Amaro moves in the past, and I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong.

Prior to the Brown flame war, most of the arguments against me have to do with my belief that it's wrong to question Contreras' age based on his ethnicity, and that the Phillies should have made a more serious play for Michael Young for Blanton + prospects back when Young was demanding a trade - I think my argument was that we frequently have at least one of the three of Utley, Rollins and Polanco on the DL at any given time, that he could most likely play RF, that he's a right handed bat that we need and that his presence gives Amaro greater leverage in the 2012 Rollins negotiations.

Let me correct the Dom-haters. Domonic Brown was sent down because of the Pence trade. It was the corresponding move.

Kendrick is coming into the game? I suspected they might do something like that.

I suppose we have some flexibility in the next few days. Worley could probably pitch a couple innings of relief & Oswalt should certainly be ready to pitch again without another 4 days rest. I'm feeling a Dave Bush start within the next few days.

Any chance that Oswalt will just pitch tomorrow?

Giants down 2-0 to the Stros. With that Giants offense, the lead is probably insurmountable.

I would pitch but i live in tucson; I'm better than a)Billy champion, b) Lowell Palmer c) Ken brett after a nite out in south Philly d) Jose Canseco e) John boozer

Will: Having watching Michael Young play 3rd base this year for the Rangers while Beltre has been hurt, I can say, without question, that having him on our team would give us absolutely no leverage in re-negotiating with J-Roll.

"Statue-esque" is the adjective that best describes his defense.

I live in DC about 4 miles from the ballpark (didn't go tonight, which I'm feeling good about, although that probably means now that Valdez will pitch again and then I'll be annoyed I didn't see it in person...) anyway so I'm 4 miles from the park and I just saw lightning/heard thunder outside my window. They were idiots to start the game in the first place and should have just called it.

Apologies for jokingly bringing up Dom Brown. We all want him to do well. Some people want to be right on the internet more.

Back to lurking until a boring statistical topic arises or until someone can explain to me why my favorite player on the Phillies has always the power-hitting first/third baseman. Mayberry quickly become favorite 1a.

because you loved Harmon Killebrew
, richie Allen and Steve Garvey

So, I've not had a chance to vent about Halladay pitching to Overbay the other night. I got it off my chest at happy hour today. I feel better now.

Pretty stupid starting this game with an electrical storm moving in.

Matt: I don't want to be right. I want to have Domonic in Phillies pinstripes for another season in his prime instead of a 2011 season in which he is comparable to a "washed up" Ibanez and Ben Francisco.

Naturally, this translates in BL language to "Will hates Domonic and wants him to fail".

Rube made the right call when he called Brown up. He made the right call when he got Pence and sent him down to learn how to play left field (and outfield).

And Hernandez is still in the game. It's not Philadelphia's night.

Is Oswalt credited with an appearance and a start for this game?

Wait, so Livan Hernandez is ok to keep pitching, but Oswalt isn't ok to start after warming up (much) earlier?

I guess it makes sense in that Oswalt's got the bad back. I'd rather be gentle with him right now. Hopefully he starts in place of KK tomorrow, then.

So, 80-year old Livan Hernandez can stay in the game after a 2-hour rain delay, but 33-year old Roy Oswalt & 20-something Vance Worley cannot?

Hugh: I don't believe so, as he never took the mound.

Nats announcers saying that Livan is one of the only guys who can come out after that rain delay.

Also interesting point that Oswalt has been taken out of the game and cannot re-enter (IE if it goes 13-14 innings he wouldn't be avaliable to pinch hit/run/play left field/whatever). Makes sense, but it does seem kind of weird since it'll be counted as a start for KK.

I know Howard's not striking out as much as in past years, but I wonder if he's getting himself into more 2-strike counts than in past years. It feels like he's in a 2-strike count almost every time he comes to the plate -- which (if true) could certainly explain his drop in power numbers.

G'Town, I think he would properly appear in the box score and be credited as having appeared. Is a batter who is announced and then replaced in the on deck circle credited with a game played? I think he is.

Wait, Oswalt is unavailable the remainder of the game even though he didn't throw a single pitch?

Oswalt was inthe lineup when the game started. Technically, Kendrick was a substitute.

Hugh: That part makes sense, but I don't see how you can credit (or charge, however you wanna look at it) a pitcher w/ a start when he never threw a pitch.

I've always maintained Hernandez isn't human.

Got it. Thanks, Hugh.

Can we put the 2011 Domonic Brown discussion to rest once and for all? It was what it was, and I'm really getting tired of correcting all of the willful b.s. where my original point is twisted around to "Dom hating".

With any luck, he'll go on a hot streak on a September callup, make the post season roster and make a difference. More realistically, he'll earn his way into a platoon role with Mayberry in 2012 and begin living up to his potential.

Fat: He was in the lineup & the game started. So, I guess the answer is yes. But, if he were taking aim at Cal Ripken's record, I wonder if it would count as a game played.

According to Stark: Oswalt gets a game played (in batting stats)---but no GS, game pitched, or game fielding.

So he doesn't get credited with a start... I think it's like when they announce a pinch hitter then switch him out for someone else without letting him hit. In the game, but doesn't have any stats for it?

I think Ripken's streak was for games in which he played 5 innings, no?

Not pitching Oswalt was absolutely the right decision. This game is almost meaningless to the Phillies, and if there's any chance of Oswalt getting hurt by pitching, it's not worth that risk. It's the extension of us complaining when Charlie leaves one of the aces in for 120+ pitches.

You know things are going well when Kendrick and Herndon start accumulating Ks.

Nevermind. For some reason, I always thought that about Ripken's streak. Stupid me.

So . . . if Oswalt is still considered the starting pitcher, does it follow that Kyle Kendrick could retire all 27 hitters & not get credit for a perfect game? Or that he could get knocked out after 3 innings but still get credit for the win?

SJtoDC: Thanks for the clarification.

So, 80-year old Livan Hernandez can stay in the game after a 2-hour rain delay, but 33-year old Roy Oswalt & 20-something Vance Worley cannot?

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, August 19, 2011 at 09:33 PM

Das raycis.

BAP, Oswalt isn't credited with the start, so I think Kyle is the de facto starting pitcher and will probably succumb to all starters' rules.

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