Beerleaguer for breakfast: Schwimer by the numbers

Twenty-five-year-old right-hander Michael Schwimer gets his first shot at the bigs today, as confirmed by several sources. Here's the tale of the tape.

Schwimer is having his best professional season, ratcheting up nine relief wins and a 1.88 ERA and 10 saves in 46 appearances to lead the IronPigs bullpen. He's only two strikeouts off the team lead in the category with 86, compiling a  86/22 K/BB ratio across 67 innings. He's been murder on Triple-A right-handers; they're hitting just .062 against him, but lefties have handled him, hitting .303. But no question; he's been a horse.

How does all this translate to the Majors? Who knows. Based on the numbers, and based on past auditions, he should have been promoted weeks ago, ahead of guys like Scott Mathieson and Andrew Carpenter, and that raises some flags. Lots of relievers can bedazzle Triple-A hitters and pump up incredible numbers, then they can't cross the line. The scouting mags have never given him much love, so there's that. Yet Michael Stutes never got top billing either, so there's that. And like many other minor leaguers before him, Schwimer has become something of a Beerleaguer comment thread superstar, which is a horrible omen. So we'll see.

Comments

[Zudok]

Still can't believe he didn't put Bastardo on Overbay.

[Mike G]

Schwimer has become something of a Beerleaguer comment thread superstar, which is a horrible omen. So we'll see.

Posted by J. Weitzel at 11:22 AM

Ain't that the truth.

[lorecore]

Schwimer has always been a blog superstar because of his willingness to actually support/contribute to said blogs. I've always thought that was cool and will be rooting for him a little extra than a normal phils farmhand. Helps that his numbers back up his promotion as well.

[Mike G]

Zudok, there is no way Bastardo was gonna face Overbay. If Bastardo comes in the game then Gibson counters with Goldschmidt. So with that being said, it probably should have been Maddog. He is, after all, your closer.

[TNA]

Mike G - either way, Overbay was clearly seeing Halladay's pitches well last night. The point is to either give him a new look or take the bat out of his hands.

But it should be repeated that this loss is largely on the offense and a little on the coaching.

[lorecore]

TNA: And Doc gets some blame, even as great as he pitched. The fact remains he grooved a fat one right to Overbay, regardless what the offense/manager was doing.

[Matt]

Last night and today I've learned that perennial Cy Young favorite Roy Halladay can't be trusted to pitch out of a ninth-inning jam. Also, it's possible to diagnose a pitcher's fitness level through a television.

[Bigotto]

"Zudok, there is no way Bastardo was gonna face Overbay. If Bastardo comes in the game then Gibson counters with Goldschmidt. So with that being said, it probably should have been Maddog. He is, after all, your closer."

Mike, so what if he counters with Goldschmidt? Have you seen Bastardo's splits? I posted them on the last thread. For your benefit I'll do it again:

Bastardo's 2011 splits:

vs. RHB: .106/.198/.170

vs. LHB .151/.224/.351

To which I say...again: So what if Gibson counters with Goldschmidt? I'll take that matchup any day.

[TNA]

Yeah - maybe he was giving his old teammate a chance to get in good with his new teammates.

Just kidding...Halladay's clearly too much of a competitor for that Strahan/Favre crap.

[Bubba]

Lake Fred-
I was reading through last night's comments when I came acroos this gem(copy below), Your best work since the Cole & Heidi dialogue series!

"Cholly, though appearing to be dumb on occasion, is secretly a diabolical genius. The stealth plan is to keep the Giants out of the playoffs. Watch Lee groove a few pitches tonight for homers and Vanimal will pitch like a rookie, reverting back to his statistical norm. Phils get swept, the D-Backs look invincible, while the Phillies team celebrates out of view in the sunken hidden bunker built beneath the Cholly mansion later this week. Eat a big one Brian Wilson!"

[Bigotto]

"Last night and today I've learned that perennial Cy Young favorite Roy Halladay can't be trusted to pitch out of a ninth-inning jam."

Matt, that's just a silly comment. Really, really silly. Either that, or it's a strawman.

The question is not "trusting Halladay", the question is who the best option was at the time to face Overbay (or Goldschmidt)?:

A pitcher who was over 100 pitches, had given up 2 hits already to the next batter, and had given up two hits to open the 9th inning in a one-run game, or a relief pitcher who has ice in his veins, feeelthy stuff and handcuffs and dominates BOTH RHB and LHB?

[Edmundo]

He'll either schink or schwim.

[NEPP]

Schwimer has good command but not great pure stuff. He doesn't throw as hard as Stutes but he can control it better.

It will be interesting to see how that translates against MLB hitters.

Though I tend to think 40 man roster considerations had more to do with him being held back over Mathieson or Carpenter.

[jr]

If some of you BLers could give Cholly your hindsight,I'm sure he could do a much better job.

[Matt]

If your first option is Vance Worley, sure, take him out. If it's Roy Halladay, no.

[phanatic's brother]

I believe Charlie is skeered of Halladay. He would never lift Halladay in that situation 100times over.
IMO-After the 2nd hit, he comes out.
Skowl or no skowl.

The first batter was spared a strikeout. Roy had 2 more pitches to waste. Instead he reached into his back pocket and found a keebler cookie and threw it for leadoff single. That was all she wrote.

[Bigotto]

"If your first option is Vance Worley, sure, take him out. If it's Roy Halladay, no."

And that, my friend, is why they lost the game (unless you missed it?).

[Bonehead]

Why bring up another reliever? Cholly doesn't even use world-class MLB bullpen arms. Why even bother with a 6th and 7th man in the bullpen?
The fresh, filthy arms of either Madson or Bastardo would have blown away Overbay or Goldschmidt.
Last night's game still hurts.

[Bonehead]

Why bring up another reliever? Cholly doesn't even use world-class MLB bullpen arms. Why even bother with a 6th and 7th man in the bullpen?
The fresh, filthy arms of either Madson or Bastardo would have blown away Overbay or Goldschmidt.
Last night's game still hurts.

[Matt]

So you didn't trust that Halladay could get out of the jam? That's what I said in the first place, and you said that was silly. Maybe I'm confused; is there a lesson I'm supposed to be learning here?

[lorecore]

Schwimer is listed at 6'8.

Tallest Phillie ever? I found Gene Conley at 6'8 - who lead the league in ERA+ for the 1959 Phillies. Thats about it.

[some dufus]

schwimer should play 3B, ha-ha-haaaa. k move on.

[clout]

Schwimer doesn't get love from scouts for the same reason Stutes, Worley and Kendrick didn't: He doesn't throw 97 mph and he is utterly dependent on his command to be successful.

Of course, if you have near-prefect command, as Worley has had so far in MLB, it doesn't matter how half-fast your heater is.

Schwimer's is in the 89-92 range and quite hittable if not spotted or mixed in with his slider and splitter.

One thing in his favor: His K/BB ratio in the minors is even better than the aforementioned successful Phillies, suggesting his command is even better, though his assortment isn't (which is probably why he's never made BA's Top 30 Phils prospects list, plus he's been old for his levels. But, hell, even Rizzotti made the list.)

He's got a bit of KK in him in that he doesn't have a good secondary pitch against LH. His splitter really dives into RH hitters, but not to lefties and they will lay off the good ones.

But, like Stutes, Worley, KK and Happ, he spots his half-fastball all over the place in the strikezone and that keeps hitters off-balance.

I see no reason he can't be a decent middle-reliever, assuming his command carries over.

[clout]

With regard to Bastardo v. Overbay, anyone who suggested in the game thread last night that Charlie should make that move before Overbay got his hit has a perfect right to question it and shows astute baseball sense.

Anyone who didn't raise that issue then, but raises it now is a second-guessing dickhead.

[HammRadio]

@Matt -- I don't think its whether you trust Halladay in that spot or not. No one here is questioning that. He is likely to win that battle 95% of the time. It's just this was the 5% scenario.

But a Bastardo or Madson are in the bullpen to handle that exact situation.

Also, when you talk about innings pitched, its the TYPE of innings pitched. That situation was fairly high stress. Those type of innings cause more strain than when having a 10 run lead.

COntinuing to leave Doc in the game after Overbay's hit was torturous. There was VERY little need to do that.

I'm not in the camp to go to a 6 man rotation and certainly not in the camp to cap these guys at 7 innings. But this was a clear case of mis-reading the situation.

It was Cholly's call, but Dubee has to man-up and force his hand a bit. Otherwise he's just as complicit.

[Bigotto]

Matt, once again, it's not about "trusting Halladay". (You do comprehend what you read, no?) It's about who the BEST OPTION was in that situation.

BTW, going into last night's game, Overbay had a .429/.429/.429 line against Halladay going into last night's game (SSSA). Charlie SHOULD have known this, and SHOULD have made the move to Bastardo.

BTW, unless you think it's hindsight, go look at the game thread. Some people, most notably MG, saw it coming BEFORE the Overbay 2B.

[Bigotto]

"With regard to Bastardo v. Overbay, anyone who suggested in the game thread last night that Charlie should make that move before Overbay got his hit has a perfect right to question it and shows astute baseball sense."

Kudos to MG on that one.

[PhillyRhetoric]

as for bringing him up now and not weeks or months ago, anyone share a suspicion that he's a sleeper to make the postseason roster if he really handles righties, and the scouting report on him will be all the more slim if he's only up for 5 plus weeks. i recall bastardo coming out of almost nowhere in 2009 to absolutely handle giambi in the NLCS. that's probably thinking way too deeply into this, but if they had no interest in the possibility, they could have waited another couple weeks to get him his cup of jo in the bigs.

[lorecore]

RHetoric: thats a pretty good thought I think, altho as NEPP mentioned earlier, the 40man roster move might have been more a culprit in delaying Schwimer than 'the book' being written on him too soon.

[Bigotto]

They brought Schwimer up. Why not Mathieson? Is he out of options if they try to send him down again? For that matter, is that the case with other potential callups?

BTW, Jason Grillie has pitched 16 innings of 3.94 ERA baseball for the Pirates, though he's walked 12 guys and because of that his WHIP is not good.

[Bigotto]

"Grilli"

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Because Mathieson stinks?

[CJ]

Big f-in deal. He left the best pitcher in the world on the mound to get out of his own mess in the 9th inning. The loss means nothing in the grand scheme of thing.

But this is Beerleaguer, where last night's result proves that Roy Halladay is just an 8 inning pitcher and Charlie Manuel is an idiot at the end of games.

[Old Phan]

"Anyone who didn't raise that issue then, but raises it now is a second-guessing dickhead."

Simple, but eloquent. I like it.

[CJ]

Mathieson? Really?

When will that idea die?

As much as a "savior" as Schwimer has been portrayed on Beerleaguer, at least that's only happened this season. Mathieson has been a savior for the last decade it seems.

[Mike G]

Geeze, I never said that I wouldn't have taken Roy out. Read my post. All I said was that Bastardo wasn't gonna face Overbay if he came into the game. I said it should have been Maddog. He is your closer. I know what Bastardo's splits are.

[Matt]

I never said it was hindsight. And I don't care who said what, when. Blind squirrel and all that. Halladay struck out the side on 13 pitches in the 8th and everyone was drooling (including MG). He enters the 9th under 100 pitches, gives up a leadoff hit and suddenly he's beet red! he's huffing and puffing! why oh why is he still in there??! Give me a break. If Roy Halladay is no match for Lyle Overbay at 109 pitches, is he really that good?

[Old Phan]

This was my favorite comment from last night-

"This was a game the Phils should have won. All the rah rah "we'll get 'em tomorrow" stuff is crap. This is a team we may face in the playoffs. We should have sent a message now that we can't be beat. That we're the better team."

Let's see. All the rah rah "we'll get 'em tomorrow" stuff is crap? According to my calculations (and forgive me if my math is incorrect) there are at least 42 more tomorrows, and that's only if the Phils have an epic collapse. Otherwise, there will be a few more than that.

Send a message? The Phils have been sending a message all season, and it's this-"We're better than you." Pretty simple. And now all of a sudden we're fearing the D-Backs now?

Guess what. As good as the team is, I suspect they'll lose a few more games this season, and none of them will be fun. Deal with it. It's baseball.

[MG]

Mike G - Even if Gibson had countered with Goldschmidt (not sure he would have given Goldschmidt's rookie status) then you have two LH bats following him.

[CJ]

Old Phan: Puh-leeze... every loss is a great opportunity for recriminations. If we can't look at a loss and immediately determine what our fatal flaw is, then we're not doing our job. This team sucks.

[CJ]

MG: Gibson would probably not be shy about using Goldschmidt in any situation. Just a week ago, he was called upon to pinch hit as the tying run in the bottom of the 9th with two outs. He promptly hit a HR.

[R.Billingsly]

Since I wasn't commenting during the game thread, I cannot evidence the fact that I thought leaving Halladay in after the first batter reached was a mistake. So I won't play the hindsight game with you all. I will, however, ask a few questions which more or less sum up my feelings on the matter.

Last night, he was indecisive and it cost him. If it's "Halladay's game to win or lose," why did he have the 'pen up at the start of the 9th? Insurance in case Halladay gets into a jam, right? Well, Halladay got into a jam. And the next batter up was a guy who had the only RBI on the night and hit the ball hard in two PAs. You have a LHP in the 'pen ready to go. He didn't use him. For those that say Gibson would have countered with Goldschmidt in that situation, no way. If so, so what? Bastardo has been getting RHBs out.

Again, if it's Halladay's game, it's Halladay's game. But to warm up relievers in case a Halladay gets in a jam and not use them when said jam happens is pretty ridiculous. Head scratching, to say the least.

As a Charlie-basher, I've said it 1,000 times: he does not put his players in the best position to win the game more often than not. Last night was a prime example.

To sum up: Halladay pitched really well. Well enough for the win. The offense has to score runs to win. They didn't. The loss is on the offense. But, games like this should/could be won with better managing.

[R.Billingsly]

Good for Schwimer! I'm excited to see what he's got.

[Mike G]

Let me say this one more time. All I said was that if Bastardo came into the game he wasn't gonna face Overbay. That's all! I didn't say he shouldn't have been used. All I said was he wasn't gonna face Overbay. Last thread Zudok posted this: Bastardo vs Overbay =W That's basically what I was referring to. I guess I should have quoted it. Sorry I said anything.

[CJ]

R.Billingsly: "he does not put his players in the best position to win the game more often than not."

So I guess the win a lot more often than not in spite of their manager. We're back to that again...

[R.Billingsly]

CJ: Not what I'm saying at all.

[R.Billingsly]

Mike G: You weren't the only one intimating that Gibson would have PH Overbay. I just don't see him doing that in that situation, regardless of facing Halladay or Bastardo.

[R.Billingsly]

"...PH for Overbay..."

[R.Billingsly]

If you really want to know my opinion on Charlie, go back and read the countless posts I've written about him. Never once, however, did I ever say something as foolish as "the (sic) win a lot more often than not in spite of their manager." A statement like that is just not true.

Do you disagree with the rest of my post? Being a terrible tactician does not mean that every win is "in spite of a manager." That's absurd.

Reading comprehension issues. We're back to that again...

[Heather]

R. Billingsly: Preach on! You said what I was thinking much better than I could have.

[DH Phils]

Can you imagine how many wins they'd have if the manager put his players in better position to win?

[MG]

Matt - The more preferable matchup situation after the Montero hit was to bring in Madson to try to get a K against Young (a real hacker). Really needed an out there where the runners didn't advance. Gibson was kind enough to oblige though his foolish called bunt 0-2.

There wasn't any reason why though after Halladay gave up hit to Overbay that he stayed in the game. None.

[lorecore]

If Doc was so 'gassed', then why did he saw off the next hitter and strikeout the rookie PH to end the inning?
He sawed off the next batter, and then struck out the rookie PH.

He made a bad pitch, the Giants are now 3.5 gm back, end of story.

[Bigotto]

"Last night, he was indecisive and it cost him. If it's "Halladay's game to win or lose," why did he have the 'pen up at the start of the 9th? Insurance in case Halladay gets into a jam, right? Well, Halladay got into a jam. And the next batter up was a guy who had the only RBI on the night and hit the ball hard in two PAs."

RBill, add this to it and it becomes more puzzling:

"...and hit the ball hard in two PAs", AND had hit Halladay (SSS) to the tune of .429 in the past.

Now, at the time I sure didn't know that Overbay has had success against Halladay in the past, but I don't look up every individual matchup before every game. However, after seeing what Overbay has done against Halladay in the past (before last night), I'm not surprised that he had the success he did last night.

But, shouldn't the Phillies (Charlie) have known, and made a change to Bastardo?

CJ is right, though. It's only one game and will probably be forgotten.

But can they afford to make that kind of mistake in a short playoff series.

[Dickie Thong]

They should have waited until Aug. 22 to put Polanco on the 15-day DL retroactive to Aug. 7.

[SLO Phan]

Blanton to 60 day DL per Gelb. And here I read something yesterday from Gelb (or Murphy, maybe) saying that Blanton was feeling better and may start throwing next week.

[Meyer]

Charlie does not get paid enough to pull Halladay from that game last night. Are you kidding me? Charlie needs Roy in October/November. Charlie can't lose. He keeps Roy in and "yeah boy" or he keeps him in and Roy loses - "yeah boy" Roy is pi88ed.

[CJ]

So Charlie doesn't put his players in a position to win... and they win more than any other team in baseball... ergo they win in spite of his horrible tactical tendencies? How does one not follow the other?

[Greg S.]

Overheard....

Halladay: I wish Charlie took me out. My confidence is shot now. I wish I had pitched against the Nats. F'ing rainout.

Bastardo: You're telling me. He didn't trust me enough to put me in. Even when it was the obvious thing to do. Everyone on Beerleaguer says so. I'll probably never pitch again.

[Old Phan]

"Can you imagine how many wins they'd have if the manager put his players in better position to win?"

78?

[Bigotto]

SLO, the way Worley is pitching they probably feel that it's best to just let Blanton rehab and get healthy for next season, especially with Roy O back. Sunk cost.

[Bigotto]

Greg S, a post worthy of the moronocracy. Nice job!

[Joe]

It's easy to be right about Tuesday night on Wednesday afternoon.

[Bigotto]

A great tweet from Murphy/High Cheese:

"If WAR had CIN as a 103-win team in '10, or 12 games better than they finished, doesn't that indicate WAR overvalued 1 or more players?"

[DH Phils]

Bigotto: Great point by Murphy. In the sabercommunity, players being overvalued by traditional statistics is evidence for how antiquated and silly they are, but players being overvalued by WAR or UZR is just idiosyncratic noise inherent to the statistic.

Those discrepancies are reasonable - no statistic is perfect. It just seems that traditional statistics are not afforded the same leeway.

[Joe]

DH:

Correct. A good portion of the SABR crowd can't comprehend the value of anything that can't be measured by a stat. One of the things I like about Charlie is the fact that he isn't a slave to "the book" and once in a while he throws "the book" away. That takes guts. Maybe Charlie actually thought that his ace pitcher EARNED the right to finish the game.

[Bigotto]

DHP, I love stats and all they bring to the game, but just like traditional scouts/scouting, the sabr community isn't perfect either.

The only thing that bugs me about some of the sabr writers is their insistence that "because the numbers say so, it must be true". That, and their insistence that intangibles don't matter.

Advanced stats have brought tremendous value to the game, but they do not and cannot provide a complete picture of any player's or team's value.

[DPatrone]

The bottom line is Cholly went with his gut and it didn't pan out. Me personally, I wouldv'e gotten Doc as soon as he gave up the hit to Upon. Hopefully we'll even this one out by coming back and winning one we'were in serious danger of losing. What really hurts is that we had chances to get more runs and didn't.

Other thooughts: After seeing Gload's AB last, it seems to me that he should be DL'd and maybe Cust brought up, and while I'm all for giving Schwimmer a shot aren't we short a position player with Polly on the DL?

[Bigotto]

Joe, Halladay has EARNED the priveledge (as extended by his manager) to finish every game so long as he gets to teh 9th inning like last night. And I have no problem with Charlie sending him out there in the 9th. I don't think anyone does.

However, it was a judgement call by Charlie to leave him in there after the two base hits to open the frame - especially when Madson and Bastardo were warmed up (and what was the point of them even warming up if he was going to let Halladay finish the game regardless?).

Last night it jumped up and bit him.

On to the next game.

[CJ]

DPat: Bench is Schneider, Valdez, Mayberry Jr., Gload and Francisco. We actually had a short bullpen before this move.

[Bigotto]

" Hopefully we'll even this one out by coming back and winning one we'were in serious danger of losing."

Dom, we did that in LA in the 9 - 8 win.

Things have a way of evening out, don't they?

[MG]

There is this common perception that Cholly often doesn't go 'by the book' and manages with his gut. Hor$eshit. He manages very much by established baseball orthodoxy:

- Long hook for his starters especially if they are established veterans
- Reluctance to use unproven young players especially if there is a veteran option available
- He almost always plays the splits when choosing a reliever or PH substitution

I could name several more. It is not that common you see Cholly make a maverick decision or strategy decision that challenges baseball orthodoxy.

Cholly reminds me very much of a guy like Dusty Baker.

[clout]

MG: Good analogy. I agree.

[CJ]

Yo, new thread.