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Friday, July 29, 2011

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I cant wait for Rube to massively overpay for a complimentary player.

Wade's trying to get the Phillies and Braves to bid against each other.

My read: Phillies are serious, Braves are kicking tires but won't part with their prime pitching prospects (yet). So Phillies are front runners, and Heyman's tweets about Braves are from Astros trying to get the Phillies to up their bid.

No no no no

Rube should break off talks with Wade and start looking at other pieces. Clearly Wade is dellusional as to the real value of Hunter Pence.

clout, his walk rate and strikeout rates have been consistently poor throughout his career. HIs 6.7 BB% this year is right in line with his career 6.8% rate, and his 20% K rate this year is only slightly higher than his career 18.1% K rate. That's roughly a 3/1 strikeout/walk ratio for his career, and he's shown no improvment in that area this year.

What's out of line with his career numbers is his BAbip of .370 (career .326).

He may improve during his peak years, but I odn't see his true talent level at a 130 OPS+, but I could be wrong.

repost: I want Quentin, But I don't see that happening with the White Sox still with a very good shot in the AL central, though they do have a history of white flag trades. Maybe we trade for Pence now, acquire Quentin in the offseason and then trade off Pence to restock the system. . . .

Pence IS IN his peak years right now.

He's not likely to suddenly become a 30 HR guy in RF the next several years. His power is down again this year despite a ridiculous BABIP and playing half his games in a launching pad.

So does that make today Cliffmas?

Rosenthal is suggesting the Phils may be bidding against themselves at this point. He says the Astros are working hard to draw a second team into the bidding. The Braves have decided not to include any of their top 4 pitching prospects in a deal.

The reason I look at walk/strikeout rates is because, if he's not walking that much, then the only way to get on base is to hit to get on. If he's still striking out as much (more, actually) than he ever has, then he's hitting the ball as much as he was before, so what makes me believe that, with the same amount of balls being put in play, that he should be able to sustain a 80 point jump in BAbip from last year to this year?

Rube should end all the nonsense and make an offer that couldn't be refused: the 3 guys he got for Cliff Lee for Kemp. Yes, the times are desperate. It is time to unrestock the farm.

I also don't understand this idea that the Phillies "window" is closing any time soon. They still have a core group of players signed for a few years plus have shown the willingness to spend money when need to.
I have no major issue with trading some prospects to get a bat but I don't see Pence being the answer and it seems to soon to give up on Brown.

***Rosenthal is suggesting the Phils may be bidding against themselves at this point. ***

May be? We've been bidding against ourselves the entire time...and Rube is dumb enough that he doesn't realize it. This feels just like the Howard contract right now...or trading Lee off for peanuts.

NEPP: You've gone over the deep end.

NEPP, has Rube every massively overpaid for a complimentary player?

If CJ's post of 12:47 is true, it lends credence to my theory that the Astros don't have as much bargaining power as they think. A theory which was shot down pretty heavily the last few days.

The bottom line is that Pence isn't good enough to demand what the Astros are (allegedly) demanding and (allegedly) turned down. The Braves aren't willing to give up ANY of their top 4 pitching prospects, but the Phils should give up their top pitching prospect, plus other top prospects? This thing is getting out of control.

Yesterday we heard that Beltran was never asked about whether he'd be ok going to the Phils or not, despite rumors that the Phils were after him. Now, the Phillies are supposedly upping their offers/bidding against themselves for Pence. Can't wait for the smoke to clear.

***has Rube every massively overpaid for a complimentary player?***

Ask me again in a couple days.

Wade told Amaro he wants Brown, Cosart & Singleton and that's final. Amaro told Wade he would get back to him in a couple hours; he needs a little time to see what Beerleaguer thinks of the deal.

R. Billingsly: "If CJ's post of 12:47 is true"

OF COURSE IT'S TRUE! I wrote it on the internet! ;-)

It's my read of the situation, based on absolutely nothing but the semi-informed speculation by various baseball writers.

The time to win is now. Trade Halladay, Lee and Hamels for Pence...

Pence's power is down a little this year (so is everyone else not named Bautista) but in fact he has been very consistent in his career. He could end up with the same numbers by the end of the season.

Stark broke now Astros looking for third team to flip Dom , keep sing and cosart. What a f'n joke I can't believe we will get that tool hunter p. Damn this is very frustrating

While I am often highly suspicious of RAJ's free agent signings, with one exception (the Lee trade), he has done quite well at the trade deadline.

Cosart & Singleton, the top two prospects in the Phillies minor league system is too high a price to play for a complimentary player like Pence, and if that is not enough for the Astros, then I would hope the Phils will probably just walk away from the deal.

My preference would be that they would be in on BJ Upton, but it sounds like the Rays will not be dealing him.

It is sounding more and more likely that this will be a quiet deadline for the Phils

From MOLBTradeRumors:

Jon Heyman of SI (via Twitter) hears that the Astros don't love the Phillies prospects, and that may even include Domonic Brown.


Time to move on, Ruben.

While we're at it, lets do one of the all time great Beerleaguer trades-Hamels for Upton (not B.J.)

Where is this Stark story? Hasn't tweeted yet...

Why is anyone concerned about what Macnow or Diddy think? Both are great at their strengths (hockey, football**) but when's the last time they gave you an insight into baseball that you already didn't have yourself?

** I love Didinger as a FB analyst, I have absorbed the majority of my FB knowledge from him. He'd be a great teacher.

Jbird: no, it's Cliffmas in July

Heyman tweets: "word is, #astros dont love #phillies prospects (maybe not even brown)."

I sure hope this is one of those RARE instances in which Heyman is right. Let this deal fade away before Amaro overpays for a marginal and more expensive upgrade!

You know who I don't love? Hunter Pence.

curt - "Rube should end all the nonsense and make an offer that couldn't be refused: the 3 guys he got for Cliff Lee for Kemp. Yes, the times are desperate. It is time to unrestock the farm."

They wouldn't get you Hunter Pence's brother, Howie, at this point. JC Ramirez continues to show nothing as a starter at Reading, Gillies just got back on the field finally, and Aumont has been up & down although he looks like he could a backend reliever if he can show more consistent control on his fastball.

I'd be greatly relieved to hear that Amaro was playing Wade and is really stalking Upton or Quentin on the cheap vs. Wade playing Amaro.

Rube is dumb enough that he doesn't realize it.

Stanford grad, MLB general manager, put together the best rotation in baseball...clearly the man is an idiot. I think it's time to submit your application to David Montgomery.

Like I said up top, Wade is trying to get Amaro to sweeten the deal.

That, and it could be Wade's already said yes to an existing framework but the Astros owners said no deal.

Matt, good one.

Macnou is all about movies and food. Total waste of airtime.

Wade is scared to make a deal with the Phillies, because this will be the 3rd deal between the 2 teams under his tenure, so he will drag this out as long as possible. He will get fired regardless but doesn't want to burn his bridges with in the Phillies organization and that is why I feel the Phils will get Pence, maybe I am thinking outside the box a little bit, but it is something to at least consider.

The Phillies need to call the Astros bluff. When is Pence's value going to be higher? Even assuming that he is a 130+ OPS+ player going forward, he'll be paid like one next year, he'll probably regress and there will probably be better players out there, as this is a pretty weak trade market.

And I've seen no sign that Wade is delusional about the value of Hunter Pence. Amaro is. Wade is just testing the true depth of Amaro's delusions.

MG-I think you missed curt's sarcasm. I think you may be a little low on Aumont, though. I could the Pads going after him(or DeFratus or Schwimmer) in a deal for Adams.

*regress, at least a little

Monty will let Ed scout or advise Rube

Hunter Pence will not become a Phillie this season.

He will remain an Astro for the rest of this year. We will revisit him in the offseason. And then maybe.

Dom has a big up side, but I seriously question how much he'll be able to help the Phillies on the field while they're still contenders. If not dealt now, I have a strong feeling Brown will be the player the Phillies trade in 3 years or so as they get into their "rebuilding" phase.

I read before the rumors got crazy that IF Wade was going to deal Pence to the Phils, it would have to be an overpay due to the perception that he didn't get enough value in his last two trades with them. I don't necessary agree with that, but I can see how he's trying to drag this out to get every drop of value he can out of it to demonstrate his own value to the new owners.

FWIW, I do think the Phils are bidding against themselves at this point, but I really question the validity of all the rumors out there. Most of this stuff is complete BS. Just gotta ride it out and see what happens...

... I really question the validity of all the rumors out there. Most of this stuff is complete BS.

word.

Imagine Pence going 0-4 with 2 k's in his first Philly game?Hope it's on the road.
Scary thought: When Rube gets a player he wants in his head,nothing has stopped him yet.Please let this be a first.

Is it Sunday at 4:01 pm yet?

Did anyone else get po'ed at Charlie last night for insuring maximum platoon advantage for the Giants in the 8th? Victorino, Ibanez, Brown up vs. Affeldt, who is a nasty reliever. He lets Ibanez bat vs. Affeldt, brings up Francisco for Brown so that the Giants can bring in Romo. Why not bring Ben in for Raold, giving Bochy the opportunity to choose. Assuming Romo comes in, then either Brown faces a righty or Bochy has to burn Romo for one batter.

CM's done that before too.

Probably didn't change the outcome but shouldn't you always put your team in the best situation, just in case you can come back?

Look if we're going to be facing the Braves in the NLCS that right handed bat isn't going to help the offense all that much. Their whole rotation is right handed so with our current team we should be able to produce and if we don't it has nothing to do with a RH bat or a missed acquistion, it's because we choked.

The only lefty on the Braves that is substantial is Venters out of the 'pen. Sherrill isn't legitimate at this point.

I got 5 (?) words for you: J D M8tha F8kkin Drew!

When Rube gets a player he wants in his head,nothing has stopped him yet.Please let this be a first.

Roy Halladay in 2009.

i'm so confused. in what world is hunter pence worth more than domonic brown straight up?

Wade got good value for the Lidge trade (Micheal Bourn) for Bruntlett and Lidge. Geoff Geary had a good year in 2008 but is now in AAA purgatory.

For the Oswalt trade? No so far. Happ has turned into a disaster. Gose is still really fast and still a strikeout machine with no power in AA, though his walk rate appears to be improving. Villar has also not impressed in AA.

When it comes to in-game tactical moves, Charlie almost never puts his team in the apparent "best situation". His decisions as to which players stay in the game & which players are PH for, & when, remain beyond the realm of logic.

O'Flaherty?

Edmundo: Because Raul is a veteran and doesn't get pinch-hit for. Simple as that.

The Stark rumor is official... Phils and Astros seeking a third team to include as the Phils send Dom, Cosart and Singleton.

I'm sick to my stomach.

Gose was traded for Brett Wallace.

Brown, Cosart and Singleton is so absurd that I refuse to believe it to be true.

Please let this whol effing thing fall through. I'm sorry that I ever wanted Pence in the first place. I didn't think the Phils would overpay to the rafter for him.

This is nauseating.

Here's the Stark column. Take it for what it's worth.

I repeat: NO NO NO NO

Bed's Beard: "Gose was traded for Brett Wallace." Which may actually make it worse for the Astros. Wallace is one of the worst 1st basemen in the league.

Just go get Upton

Eh Old Phan, didn't Herbert Hoover attend Stanford?

Jack:, ha, very true.

***Roy Halladay in 2009.***

Funny, I remember Rube still eventually getting his guy even though it meant trading Cliff Lee to do it.

I just can't see Ruben overvaluing Pence this much. He seems like a smart guy right? I mean sure, he might go a little nuts tacking on extra years for aging relievers. But c'mon, he can't be this stupd. Right??

is there an e-mail address we can bombard that rube might pay attention to?

IF the rumor is true (and I tend to doubt it) evidently the Phils don't think Dom will be the player he was touted to be.


... "I really question the validity of all the rumors out there. Most of this stuff is complete BS."

Others will scoff at that notion, but I agree 100%.

Unless the trade is Brown + one Single-A prospect for Pence.

Which I still think is a mistake, Brown has a ton of upside. He's just still pretty raw. Needs seasoning at Triple-A.

Rube should be fired if he makes that deal. Totally serious, they should fire his ass for even proposing such a ridiculously stupid trade.

+ Pence, -Brown would improve the team MINIMALLY this year make it worse of in following years. Who is your other outfielder next year when Raul is gone? I don't see you trading multiple top prospects with high high ceilings for a complimentary piece

DashTreyhorn Dash Treyhorn
by HighCheese
Did Ed Wade incept Ruben Amaro? That is what's happening, isn't it? Spin the top, Rube! Spin it!

Ugh. Not making my lunch digest any easier.

NEPP,

So he should get fired for trading for Pence, even after:

1) Getting Roy Halladay
2) Signing Cliff Lee
3) Trading for Oswalt
4) Putting teams together with had the best record in the NL in 2010 and 2011 (to date)?

Look, if the Phillies actually trade Cosart, Singleton, and Brown for Pence, all my calling RAJ a moron will actually be prescient!

Yes, he should be fired. Its a stupid fvcking trade.

It would be the worst trade in the history of the franchise.

Would we get another player besides Pence if it is a 3 team deal, maybe the Padres, there IS NO WAY I do that deal for Pence!

It's also possible folks are overvaluing Brown a bit. And until something is officially announced, it's possible this is more speculative nonsense.

Where is Gillick go tackle Ruben

Anybody know the easiest route to Quakertown from South Jersey?

Maybe Rube found out that Dom wants to be an Ace pitcher rather than an everyday player.

The best part of that trade? Ibanez would STILL be in LF and we'd STILL need to sign a SS & LF next year to big $$ while paying Pence at least $8-9 million.

Bedro's Beard:

Yeah we'll get Pence just for O'Flaherty, please. If that's the difference in us getting to the Series than I'll take a bow. We have righties that can hit situationally against the Braves and I expect to be leading in those games when our lefties pound their right handed starters. So needing the RH bat would still be mute. We have enough as is.

NEPP, I think firerubenamaro.com is available to buy.

Also, this is probably the perfect Beerleaguer t-shirt: http://bit.ly/afYqrK

At least I proposed A-Ram for that Pence package.. Got killed for it too.. The Pence thing would be an awful trade.. Pence is a whiffmeister who has speed but can't maximize it effectively because he refuses to take walks..I STILL say all this is BS Either the pkg is WAAAYYY less than these pundits say,or Rube is secretly going after other alternatives.. Wade is too stupid to fool Rube.

The third team theory especially sucks since that could mean Brown gets spun off to the Braves

Wake Pat up. He's sleeping in the hall of the Hall. If there is a third team it will be one of Pat's ole stomping grounds.

NEPP,

Worse than:

1) Larry Bowa and Ryne Sandberg for Ivan DeJesus?

2) Manny Trillo, George Vukovich, Jay Baller, Jerry Willard, and Julio Franco for Von Hayes?

3) Grover Cleveland Alexander to the Cubs for cash (period)?

4) Jim Thome to the White Sox for Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Haigwood?

Seems to me that's a bit less lopsided than what's happening...

Brown should be untouchable unless the Phillies are convinced that he's a bust or will be a super-slow developer.

Would we get another player besides Pence if it is a 3 team deal, maybe the Padres

I don't even like Pence and Adams if it were a 3way

Brown, Singleton, Cosart are our 3 best prospects as of the beginning of the season (and Fangraphs had our farm ranked 3rd in the league so we are not talking about chopped liver). Pence is definitely not worth the price of admission. This is a classic walk away deal because of market conditions and it would shock me if the phillies agreed to this as is.

I think people need to calm down. You're freaking out over RUMORS.

I disagree with the move if it does happen, and think the idea is stupid, but we have no idea what is actually happening behind the scenes. We heard tons of things about who would be traded for Oswalt last year, people freaked out, and then it ended up being Gose and Villar instead of who was rumored and everyone was thrilled.

I will say that if they are looking for a third team and Rube is willing to give up all the players he is RUMORED to be willing to give up, there has to be a second player coming here. Has to be.

The third team theory especially sucks since that could mean Brown gets spun off to the Braves

Last year Jason Heyward was supposed to be the second coming of Hank Aaron, but now Atlanta could be ready to toss him aside for yet another well-hyped rookie? That would be interesting. Also, highly unlikely.

***4) Jim Thome to the White Sox for Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Haigwood?***

Had we kept Gonzalez, that would have been a pretty good trade.

Thanks for the link to the Onion's store. Never been there before; seriously considering buying my mom the welcome mat.

Haha, the prospects and Brown for both Pence and Bourn?

NoGo,

What they're seeing with Brown is that he can't hit anything on the bottom half of the plate and he has a lot of trouble with breaking stuff.

Considering he's young, that's expected, but his batting stance is easy to jam inside.

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