Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Friday nightcap: Phillies prevail 3-1, Pence targetted | Main | Sunday chat: Halladay targets 12th win in matinee »

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Comments

Just noticed RJ Swindle, a BL favorite, was released by the Rays

Kendrick isn't bad for a guy numerous posters have said can't possibly succeed because of his low K rate.

Now these poor souls are forced to root for him to be non-tendered at the end of the season.

Swindle will make a fine Camden Rivershark.

Kendrick is kind of unlucky in some ways. When he struggled it was really obvious and out there. When he succeeded, like he is now, people are not watching and writing him off, because let's face it, we'd all pick Kendrick as the game to miss if we had to and I hardly think it's a coincidence who are unloading their tickets and choosing not to sit in an oven this afternoon, considered the starter.

I never expect much out of Kendrick but what we have got this season is an arm who has kept the team in games and done his work when called upon. When Beerleaguer ran a poll about him or Durbin, I answered Kendrick for the exact reason that he's a capable starter and can pitch multiple innings out of the pen. It was a good call.

Mini-Mart's march toward the magical .250 mark predicted by aksmith and flipper now has him at .236/,277/.318.

Can such a scorching slash line be maintained? Admittedly it's a small sample size, although not remotely as small as the numbers his BL advocates have been pushing lately.

Also, from the previous thread I am happy to learn from CJ that the Phillies will be a contender for the next decade and that there is no window closing in the next couple years. This makes it much easier to renew my season ticket plan.

As I was reading the Hunter Pence-Dom Brown debate, I found myself formulating the same question in my mind which clout ultimately asked: do people REALLY think that Domonic Brown -- he of the .247 batting average, .395 slugging pct., and DITHL oufield defense -- is going to be better than Hunter Pence any time soon or, for that matter, ever? I mean, he could be, but it's considerably less than a 50-50 proposition that he'll ever be Hunter Pence's equal and it's probably about a 20% proposition that he'll be Pence's equal by 2012.

Now, granted, there would be major salary ramifications in trading away our cheap 2012 right fielder for an expensive replacement. Those salary ramifications, of course, are going to trickle down to other areas of the team. So would I make the trade? I honestly don't know. But I find it odd to see posters dismiss it out of hand as though it's the dumbest idea anyone ever proposed. I actually don't get all the fawning over Domonic Brown. He's 224 ABs into his major league career and is hitting .237 for his career, while stumbling all over himself in the OF. Why exactly is everyone so certain of his future greatness?

No way I'd trade Brown for Beltran, but for Pence it isn't a crazy move. However, I'd try to get Pence(if that's really who they want) for anything but Brown. I agree with the unnamed Scout in the Brookover article who says Brown probably has a better career than Pence(not sure those were the exact words).

Since I wasn't home last night to give Cole his proper due, I'll do it today:
Photobucket

Lock him up long term, Rube.

BAP: Most players improve after their first season, right?

So we are to believe we should go out and get a Right handed bat (Pence) to face all the left-handers we will face in this postseason? Atlanta has Jurrjens(R) Hanson(R) Hudson(R) and Lowe(R) San Fran Has Lincecum(R) Cain (R) Vogelsong(R) and Bumgardner(L)! Let's face it, these are the good pitching teams we are likely to face in the playoffs where Philly will need offense. If the Phils are lucky enough to meet the 2 games above .500 Central winner, their bats will post the same inflated numbers Pence has this season. True, he has good numbers. Mayberry or MiniMart might have those numbers if they had the same number of chances against the woeful Pirates, Cubs and mediocre Cardinals and Brewers. True, he might be a good bat to bring off the bench, but not at anywhere near the price being asked. The way UC plays the leftie-rightie matchups, that's where he'll be, too.

Roob is too smart to get a player with over-inflated numbers that UC won't use who will posibly cost them a player next year (Jimmy, Hamels, or Mad Dog) that they probably want.

By the way, does any one not think Brian Cashman is looking into his checkbook at least once a week and matching it up to what he thinks he can offer Hamels? Another CC Sabathia level contract offer is not out of the question. Spending money on Hunter Pence will look idiotic if it keeps the Phils from locking up Hamels. Fortunately, this can't happen unless the Front office blows money foolishly, and they are brighter than that.

Obviously this would be a best case scenario, I'm not saying I predict this for him, but his game reminds me of a young Bobby Abreu - Abreu hit .250/.329/.372 at age 23 in 1997 after being a highly touted prospect. Houston and Tampa both gave up on him (for nothing and Kevin Stocker, respectively).

I don't think it's less than 50-50 that Brown ever equals Pence. Pence isn't as good as everyone thinks he is.

"...do people REALLY think that Domonic Brown *SNIP* is going to be better than Hunter Pence any time soon..."

No, of course not. But, and pardon the rough analogy, when your tricycle has three wheels (old and worn out, perfectly worn in, and brand new) why would you sell the new wheel to buy another new wheel?

Yes, Ibanez isn't going anywhere *this* year, but he is gone next season. If you trade players not named Brown for Pence, you end up not only better this year but with a very good and locked in outfield for the foreseeable future.

We're close enough to expanded rosters that we can carry five outfielders. The point isn't that Brown is better then Pence, but that Phils are better with both of them.

People also have to get rid of the Bill Giles "small market" complex. These are the new Phillies. In terms of being able to keep and pay players, they're a lot closer to New York and Boston than they are to the rest of the league. Hamels isn't going anywhere.

BAP - I think some of the dismissals have to do with salary obligations going forward. If you want to resign Hamels, Madson and Rollins while pay raises are given to Howard, Lee and Doc - it is nice to have a young cost controlled RF who puts up a league average to above average line. Brown isn't a top prospect for nothing as he has the tools that could transform him to be a very good OF.

Now unless Pence is willing to take a deal to be cost controlled for the next few years - he will be looking for close to $10 million in arbitration next year. That puts out the notion that Pence is cheap and controllable for the foreseeable future.

BAP: 224 ABs? At age 23? Really?

For some perspective, in his last 222 ABs, Ryan Howard is hitting .225/.338/.387.

Of course, by those standards, we should probably sign Dom Brown to a 5 year, $125 million contract.

Lincoln Hawkes - post of the day.

I love the daily Jack post that bashes Ryan Howard. Wouldn't be a normal day on BL without it.

Also, don't look now, but Carlos Ruiz has a .368 OBP, and without spending the whole year in the 8-spot. Pretty impressive.

Chooch is probably in the conversation for 2nd best catcher in the NL, behind McCann. Miguel Montero is a much better hitter, but doesn't have the same glove. It's a close call there.

RedBurb: Anytime you can get a guy with a lower OPS than Daniel Murphy for the next 5 years at $125 million, you gotta do it. Gotta do it.

At least he's better than Brett Wallace, whose SLG is now down to .395, which is absolutely pathetic for a 1B. Clout, care to share your thoughts on him?

RedBurb: Jack's daily bashing of Howard is a regular feature of Beerleaguer.

Lincoln: Who are these mysterious players who would allow us to acquire Pence without giving up Brown?

clout - Yes I know. That's why I love this place.

My personal opinion? Pence is just coming into his peak years as a player.

Brown's absolute ceiling? Hunter Pence. Chances of him reaching that ceiling? Like every prospect, less than 50-50, as BAP correctly notes.

Does that mean I'd trade him for Pence? No. For the same reason awh cited: We don't need him to make the playoffs and winning the playoffs is all about luck and hot streaks, not talent (for the league's best teams, which aren't far apart in talent.)

in all fairness, Howard's recent performance is rather bashable. time for his patented 2nd half torid streak to kick in.

Amaro is not trading Brown for Pence. nor should he. in fact, i don't think that Pence is moving anywhere. Houston's new owners asked Wade to derive the value of all of his ML talent, likely as some busy work/housekeeping before he gets his walking papers at the end of the year. of course, if he could pull off a major win, they'd likely sign off on it. landing a Brown would probably be that kind of win.

The lineup evaluator tool routinely has Chooch batting leadoff, Utley second.

Never happen, of course.

Jack and DH: Here's my point. The conventional wisdom is all too dismissive of this simple fact: many players who struggle as rookies DON'T get better. And many who do get better still don't develop into above average ball players.

We have no idea which category Domonic Brown will fall into.

Clout, the guys with letters R, A, AA, or AAA next to their names.

And if it can't be done for them, then you don't do it. Trading Brown for Pence leaves you in the position next year to belooking for solutions to plug up that third OF spot. And don't say Mayberry or Francisco. If they aren't good enough to do it this year, they won't be next year. I love Mayberry as a 4th OF and PH, but not as my starting anything.

Trading Brown for another outfielder just seems like some sort of sad O. Henry baseball story. Let's skip the whole folksy "oh... the irony!" scene next season.

I think Brown's ceiling is slightly higher than Pence as a player. He likely won't be the defender Pence is, but he blows Pence away in terms of plate discipline, and he should end up with similar power, maybe a little more.

Pence has a career OBP of .339. Dom has already matched that. If/when he starts to hit for average, Dom should be putting up OBP's in the .370-.380 range. That more than makes up for the defensive difference between the two.

Clout: Chooch, Utley and Victorino are our 3 best players in terms of getting on base.

Two of those players normally hit 5th or lower. Something seems odd about that.

Jack: The fact that Dom has out-performed Howard over the last 224 ABs gives me no perspective at all on whether Dom has performed well as a rookie. It does, however, give me lots of perspective on just how bad Ryan Howard has been over his last 224 ABs.

Lincoln: Trust me, if they don't include Brown, it ain't happening.

"Can such a scorching slash line be maintained?"

clout, in a word, NO.

In another 100 PA, I'll bet he's closer to the Mendoza Line than to .250.

In fairness to Kendrick critics, he actually has a 3.86 ERA as a starter. Which still isn't bad at all.

awh: We should trade him now while his value is high. Mini-Mart for Hunter Pence.

"Lincoln: Trust me, if they don't include Brown, it ain't happening."

I tend to agree with you, but I'm not sure that's a fact.

Yeah, not to mention that Brown actually hits lefties pretty well. Brown still has the tols to become an all star. Even ignoring that I just wouldnt trade him because of payroll/uncertain OF situation next year.

clout - That's not entirely true. It could be the Astros posturing so that the Phils give up 4-5 prospects.

DH,
Do not be confused. The Phils are not a small market vteam any longer. They are the third most valuable MLB franchise according to Forbes recently released list of Sports franchise values. At a value of $609MM, they are close behind the Red Sox at $912MM. They may even surpass them, should they find a way to get a better TV arrangement than they currently enjoy. Do not delude yourself into thinking they are the Yankees. The Yankees are listed at 1700MM for third on the list of all sports franchises. That is without the YES network (TV) and Legends Management (Yankee Stadium) which move that number up to 5100MM. The Phils are doing fine, and can do a lot of financial things almost any of their competitors cannot do.

They have done a great job of maximizing revenue, and have dutifully plowed that money back into payroll. But they can not, should not and will not over extend themselves for any expense. They all have worked too hard to get to be a perennial contender.

BTW, isn't it small market to be thinking "screw the future, the only time to win is now?"

Jack, you are like a dog with a frisbee.

If you want to go check out our horrible team the stubhub prices are pretty low this weekend. Can't stand the heat i guess...

"Jack and DH: Here's my point. The conventional wisdom is all too dismissive of this simple fact: many players who struggle as rookies DON'T get better. And many who do get better still don't develop into above average ball players.

We have no idea which category Domonic Brown will fall into."


bap, I don't know what Brown's ceiling will be, but based on your pessimism about Brown it sounds like you feel the same way about Jason Heyward?

Here is a differet question than "Will Brown be better than Pence." How about, "Will Brown be better than Mayberry?" If we don't know the answer to that and we can get Pence for Brown, then I'm all for an outfield of Pence, Vic, and Mayberry next year (with Francisco riding the pine). Mayberry and Brown have about the same amount of service time and Mayberry is much better in the outfield, seems to be teachable and willing to make adjustments at the dish.

Dukes - Mayberry is 28 where Brown is 23. Huge difference.

ZIPS (a projection system) thinks Brown will have a wOBA of .350 for the rest of the season, while Pence will have a wOBA of .353. The difference between the two of them offensively is more or less Brown's BABIP of .271 and Pence's BABIP of .374. Pence has slightly better batted ball splits but he's also hitting way more line drives than his career averages.

I certainly wouldn't mind acquiring Pence...but to replace Ibanez, and definitely not at the cost of Brown.

Zach: Yeah, I think you're basically dead on. Is Pence somewhat better right now? Yes.

But you also need to realize that you're probably not getting the Pence that's hit .312/.358/.479 so far this season. More likely, going forward, he's going to be the .280/.330/.460 hitter he has been for most of his career.

Is that still an upgrade? Absolutely (and especially over Ibanez). But people need to understand that Pence's numbers right now don't necessarily accurately predict what he's going to do going forward.

The thing you have to keep in mind about brown is that his time as a baseball player(professional or amateur) is not equal to his amount of time as an athlete. HE was a football player who converted to baseball later in life. The real question for his development is whether you believe he can grow his baseball IQ or not. His fielding isn't bad, but he looks like a 12 year old out there with how he plays the ball. The one positive sign is his patience as a hitter. I think in another year he's gonna breakout big time once he gets completely comfortable.

Brown v. Pence: Don't know that I'd do but I don't know that I wouldn't.

Pros: Pence is a proven ML hitter. He's exactly what they need in their lineup. And he's under team control for a few years more.

Cons: It will be a diifcult decision to give up Brovn. But, have we seen all he can do? At this point, he's not better than Jason Heyward who is younger and more polished. Can Brown be better? Absolutely. But we don't know for sure. Brown is still considered a prospect as is learning at the ML level. Cutting your teeth in the Majors has got to be difficult. Phyically he's got the tools, but he wouldn't be the first player with good/great Minor League numbers who didn't work out in the Majors.

This is what RAJ has to weigh. If this team is to go deep in the playoffs, they gonna have to have someone who is a legit threat from the RH side of the plate. This has been their biggest need all season. Becayse of this I can't say no way I'd do it. But hindsight is always 20-20 and no one has a crystal ball.

As far a Worley is concerned, again that up in the air. Does Worley have more value to the club than KK? Again, RAJ has to weigh that.


Yes, Domonic Brown will NEVER be anything more than Hunter Pence. I like the conviction with which clout says that.

Domonic Brown is just 23 years old and had limited exposure at AAA. He's coming off an injury to start the year and playing for a championship caliber club in the heat of a pennant race.

And he's STILL an above average offensive player. He currently has a 103 OPS+ and a 105 wRC+. His walk rate is 12.4% (by the way, this is double that of Hunter Pence's walk rate of 6.6%). He has a strikeout rate of 15.6% (this is 5% LESS than Hunter Pence's 20.3%). His ISO of .148 is only 19 points behind Pence's ISO of .167. His OBP of .339 is only 19 less than Pence's OBP of .358. Oh, and Pence's BAbip of .374 is 103 points higher than Brown's .271.

Oh, and Pence's LD% is only 1 point higher than Brown's. Anyone want to argue that the 103 point difference in BAbip is due to the fact that Pence's LD% of 18.2% is 1 point higher than Brown's LD% of 17.2% and that Pence's FB% of 31.6% is 2 points lower than Brown's 33.6%? Anyone?? Seriously?

Such miniscule differences in batted ball splits DO NOT account for a 103 point difference in BAbip. Pence WILL come back to Earth. Still a fine major league player, but NOT the difference maker people think he is. I was (and still am) high on Pence as an all-around ballplaer to replace IBANEZ but if we're thinking about replacing our 23 year old cheap, cost-contolled, former top propsect RF to get Pence AND hanging on to Ibanez for the rest of the year....count me out, by a lot.

Im a bit of a newb here posting but have long enjoyed reading the articles and subsequent coments.

Now to comment on the Hunter Pence prospect. I agree with everyone that does not want Brown traded. I wouldnt mind seeing maybe Singleton, Worley, and another prospect for Pence. Lets look at next years outfield. Pence Victorino Brown, all with canons in the outfield. the lineup would be like Rollins (if signed) Polly, Utz, Ry Ho, Pence, Victorino, Brown, Ruiz... looks very nice if I may say so myself.

If they can get Pence w/o giving up Brown, they have to do it. TIME IS NOW

I have no issue with the Phillies trading any of their low level pitchers for Pence because TINSTAAPP, but the willingness to trade Singleton confuses me.

At 19, in a pitcher's league he's gone: .281/.385/.403.

For comparison others at Clearwater:
Utley (22): .257/.324/.422
Brown (21): .303/.386/.517
Howard (23): .304/.374/.514

He's obviously got the worst SLG of the group, but he's 2 years younger than Brown was at that level, had an ankle injury to start the year and shows remarkable strike zone judgement. If the Phillies have any inkling that he'll develop any power and be able to play left, I think he's the one guy in the farm system to hold on to.

Let me get this straight: a proven commodity, NL All-Star Hunter Pence, is a fluke who is destined to "come back to earth."

Meanwhile, the Phillies rookie 4th OF is destined for stardom because all 23 year old prospects improve every year and no one ever fizzled out in the majors after putting up impressive minor league numbers. It's a good idea because he plays for peanuts.

Look, if you can get Pence without dealing Brown (or Worley), do it, but if Pence can be had straight up for Domonic Brown, it's a gift from Ed Wade.

Will, just ignores the specifics of the argument and dismiss the whole thing out of hand...good strategy. Pence is a good ball player, but look at his numbers and convince that he WON'T come back to Earth. (by the way, coming back to Earth, means returning to a 115 OPS+ player...not using it in a pejorative sense).

But there are certain skills that a batter has control over, and among them are walking, not striking out, and hitting line drives. Their BAbip is controllable to an extent, but there is a reason why the ZIPs projections for Brown and Pence are so similar. Their peripherals are almost dead similar.

Do you contend that Pence is able to cause his .374 BAbip, while Brown can't?

Please explain this to me.

Will: Please god don't tell me you'd rather deal Brown than Worley. Please.

Will, not just bescause he tore up the minors, but because of what he is currently doing. He is showing good plate discipline. Pence for Brown strait up is saying we care nothing about the future. Where as worley i believe is completly expendable. If you are looking for a right handed JA happ you found it in Vance Worley. Vance is on a team where he is brought to another standard because of how good everyone else around him his. With the astros, hes another JA happ

LOL @ this thread. it's like the heat has melted everyone's logic.

Shawn, didnt think many philly fans had logic lol

Random research related to the "Does Dom Brown stand a snowball's chance in hell of being a good offensive player in this league based on his performance this year?" debate. I looked at the wRC+ for all the starters on this year's All Star team for the first season in which they compiled at least 150 PAs. Here are my findings:

Avila: 333 PA, 80 wRC+
Gonzalez: 162 PA, 67 wRC+
Cano: 551 PA, 103 wRC+
Beltre: 214 PA, 76 wRC+
Cabrera: 186 PA, 107 wRC+
Jose Bautista: 469 PA, 94 wRC+
Granderson: 174 PA, 112 wRC+
Hamilton: 337 PA, 128 wRC+ (26 years old)
McCann: 204 PA, 92 wRC+
Fielder: 648 PA, 111 wRC+
Weeks: 414 PA, 96 wRC+
Zimmerman*: 682 PA, 111 wRC+
Tulowitzki: 682 PA, 107 wRC+
Berkman: 417 PA, 133 wRC+
Kemp: 166 PA, 89 wRC+
Holliday: 439 PA, 103 wRC+

*should have been All Star starter over other slop at third base

Anywho, the mean wRC+ of that group: 100.56

Yeah, Dom Brown and his 105 wRC+ over 186 PAs this season just doesn't stand a chance to EVER live up to his potential.

Shawn, agreed.

Howard riding the pine today in favor of Mayberry. I like that move. He needs a rest and to get his head together.

Jack: The way I see it, you have two cost-controlled major pieces that make the team in 2012 if nothing changes: Domonic Brown and Vance Worley.

My reasons are as follows:

1. Because retaining Oswalt would cost $16 million while retaining Pence would cost around $10. The presence of Worley makes retaining Oswalt unnecessary and frees up cash to retain Madson and J-Roll.

2. Because Worley is a more than capable #4 starter behind Halladay, Hamels & Lee whereas Brown has not proven to be a capable RF or a formidable presence in the lineup.

3. Because a right handed corner OF who hits for average and has a cannon for an arm > a left handed rookie who, while patient at the plate, is horrendous in the field and puts up numbers no more impressive than Mayberry (despite promises from BL that it's an absolute guaranteed that Brown will skyrocket and Mayberry will not).

4. Because an injury to a starting pitcher hurts the club more than an injury to a corner OF, if I could only keep one for the next three seasons, I'd keep Worley over Brown.

5. Because Worley has demonstrated maturity and an ability to succeed at the major league level whereas Brown has yet to do so.

6. Because the window of virtually guaranteed playoff appearances will not last forever, and I believe Worley/Pence gives the Phillies a better shot at a championship in 2011 and 2012 than Brown does in 2012 - 2015.

7. Because, as much as no one here can possibly stand the idea, Brown has yet to live up to his promise and there is no guarantee that he will.

8. Because this may be the highest we are ever able to sell on Brown.

9. Because, as clout noted, even if Brown does live up to his promise, he becomes what Hunter Pence. Or, we could skip the gamble and simply acquire three years of Hunter Pence.

10. Because Pence replaces Brown at a significant upgrade. Pence does not replace Worley.

Are people also forgetting that Brown's hamate injury, which he seems full recovered from, often saps power for a full year after the bone heals? The Brown you see now is nowhere near as gold as his potential peak. That peak, btw, is definitely higher than Pence and his 118 career OPS+ and .339 career OB%. Brown already has vastly superior OB skills at a much younger age and development point in his career. Pence is a nice, above-average OF, but he's not a special offensive player. People need to stop drooling over him.

Worley was last seen riding a perfect wave toward Cooperstown tomorrow with Pat and Ruben hanging ten behind him.

I would love to take B.J. Upton off the Rays' hands, but I think he wouldn't be a great fit for us. So much of his value comes from playing great defense in CF, and that's an area we don't necessarily need to improve on much. Righty bat, will hit 20 HRs and steal 40 bases, but with a very low BA.

chris in vt- word.

Will, you lose. Big time.

Brown projects to be as good as Pence for the remainder of the year. Like Chris said (and I provided the numbers for), Pence has NEVER had the plate discipline at the ML level that Brown has RIGHT NOW at 23. Pence's second full season in the majors, he posted a 101 wRC+ and a .318 OBP, numbers that Brown is currently exceeding. Brown is 5 times the prospect that Worley ever was, and Worley, as much as I love the kid's moxie, is pitching WAY above his head right now, and I doubt even you'd argue that.

Brown hasn't lived up to potential yet, but you want to know why????

He's a ROOKIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Virtually every single rookie doesn't live up to their potential...come on, you can't be this thick-skulled. Peak years for a position player are generally between 27-31. Brown is only 23. I want you to say that to yourself a few times. Please, for my sake. For everyone's sake.

Oh, and Brown has been an above average offensive player this year. Say that to yourself, as well.

@Jack:

Upton's Away splits in 2011: .292/.371/.491

Also, this recent ESPN insider article about the Trop's run suppressive foul territory: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6777432/mlb-why-tropicana-field-pitcher-park

No thanks on BJ Upton.

I love how people are just laughing off Will. Does it mean nothing that Worley has had success at the major league level and Brown has not? Brown may have a bigger upside than Worley, but give Worley some due. I'll take the guy with success at this level over the guy with little success at this level.

I'm glad none of the Beerleaguers are running the Phillies.

Pence hits for average, and made the All Star team! It's like we're debating with people from the 50's.

I'd rather get a bat that can field 3B. OF are much easier to find. I see little difference in the production of the corner OF on the Phillies right now. Only Ibanez is not controlled and does not have options and is currently a rental.

I find the Mayberry vs. Brown debate amusing. I suppose there is a very small chance that Mayberry proves to bet better than his 3 AAA seasons suggest, but I highly doubt any team would be willing to trade anything of value for him.
Brown however is still controllable for multiple seasons and is one of the best prospects the Phillies have had in a decade.

Unless it is for a Justin Upton or Matt Kemp I would not trade Brown. I'd rather be wrong on Brown not living up to potential than spend tons of money on Pence.


Amy Winehouse is dead. She should have went to rehab. But she said, "No"!

Fatalotti: Even if Brown reaches his full potential, do you believe that the Phillies have as realistic of a shot at a World Series in 2015 - 2019 as they do from 2011 - 2013?

I do not.

Win now.

lol @ worley being more valuable than brown. this keeps getting better.

We have a top three farm system and a top three payroll. There's no reason the Phillies should not be in World Series conversations for the foreseeable future.

Will Schweitzer, the Phils are a virtual lock to make the playoffs this year. The playoffs themselves are a bit of a crap shoot, because once you whittle the team's down to the 4 best in the league, the talent gap on each team is negligible. Hunter Pence in lieu of Brown does not expand that gap by much, especially when we'll be facing the pitching of the Giants and Braves. Pence does not make us immune to their pitching, and, in fact, because they feature primarily right handed starters and since starters pitch the vast majority of the innings for a team, Brown might be better served against them then Pence (though Pence doesn't have a significant platoon split).

Since I don't see Pence making us much better this year IF he's replacing Brown and NOT Ibanez, and since we'd still need to fill another OF vacancy next year, I'd rather go into the playoffs with what we have now, where we will still be the favorites to win, and be better served into future years, when Brown might be hitting his stride by 2013 or 2014.

The Phillies don't need to sell the farm to win now. They have the BEST RECORD IN BASEBALL and are about to get back Roy Oswalt and with Brad Lidge, may have one damn formidable bullpen (and have been above average offensively this year, and well above average offensively since May 23rd).

You have to weigh the future against the present, and the pros of acquiring Pence now (at the cost fo Brown) do not outweigh the pros of keeping Brown on the cheap for as many years as you can.

Now, acquiring Pence at the cost of Ibanez, and having an OF of Pence/Vic/Brown next year, with Brown in LF.

I'm ALL FOR THAT.

fat man - well done. Consider Will lawyered. And one of the biggest idiots in BL history. Hopefully Brown homers today and he sisappears for a week. Is it really possible to hate anonymous blog posters?

conshy, as much as I love debating clout and others here, I don't really feel anger towards them. Will Schweitzer sometimes makes my blood boil.

Shouldn't be, but it happens.

By the way, "Consider Will lawyered."

How I Met Your Mother reference?

Dukes - How has Brown not had success at the ML level? As a 23 year old rookie he's already an above average offensive player.

At least pay attention to facts.

Because at least Clout and others pretend to listen. I think there's value in raiding the cubs still though. Reed Johnson, Jeff Baker, and the golden prize, Aramis Ramirez

Yeah, Brown hasn't had any success, and yet his offensive numbers are superior to plenty of guys, including fan favorite Placido Polanco.

The problem with Aramis is that, if he's traded, his option for next year, at $16 million, is guaranteed.

If the Phillies could negotiate a buy-out of that option, he'd be my number 1 trade target too.

Yeah Jack, a healthy Brown hits slightly better than an injury hobbled, 10 year older Polanco. Excellent argument.

I get your blood boiling because I'm right.

Worley is an important piece of the 2011 championship run. Brown is not. At all. Not even slightly. Therefore, as of right now, Worley > Brown...and by a country mile.

Will S: Brown has a 103 OPS+ right now.

Polanco's last four seasons: 101, 90, 95, 88.

So what you're saying is that Polanco has shown no offensive "success" at the MLB level the past four years? Good point.

Jack: And if Brown plays a gold glove 2B and 3B, I'll be glad to sing his praises and declare him absolutely untouchable in a trade.

If Polanco played a poor defensive RF, I'd trade him for Pence in a minute with zero hesitation.

"Worley is an important piece of the 2011 championship run."

...What? If all goes well Worley will not pitch a single inning in the playoffs.

I. Must. Stop.

Worley will become out 5th pitcher in about a week and a half when Oswalt returns. If all our big 4 are healthy (and considering that Oswalt has reported zero problems lately and everyone has claimed his stuff is incredibly sharp, it's a good bet), then Worley WILL NOT start a game in the playoffs. At all. Considering our guys routinely pitch deep in games, and we have Madson, Bastardo and Lidge in the bullpen, Worley may not see much PT at all in the playoffs, unless a starter gets knocked out early in a blow out.

Brown, on the other hand, will likely start most games leading to and in the playoffs.

How is Worley more important to our playoff run than Brown again?

And PLEASE don't forget that Worley is currently sporting a 3.99 xFIP. That's good, but if's #4 starter good. Brown is projected to be a much better player than Worley.

And please: ignore my post above that showed that half of the current 2011 All Star starters had worse offensive years in their first extended major league exposure, and, among those 18 players, 14 of them were either below or about equals to Brown in terms of wRC+.

Zach: If all went well, Worley wouldn't have thrown a pitch in the majors until September callups.

As it happened, all did not go well and Worley is one of the reasons that teams like the Phillies can survive long term injuries to 2/5 of the starting rotation whereas teams like the Marlins (and their rotation that was compared to the Phillies) cannot.

Zach: Exactly. Worley is depth right now, who hopefully will not pitch an inning in the playoffs.

If Oswalt comes back, the only role Worley will play is making starts every 5th day from now until the end of September. While I appreciate the value in that, that has nothing to do with us winning a title. Trading him and replacing him with Kendrick might mean the difference between 97 wins and 99 wins. And who gives a crap about that?

WORLY?

*zwr reference, runs and hides*

"Consider Will one of the biggest idiots in BL history."

...and if Amaro pulls the trigger on a trade, what then?

Average career ERA+ of Florida Marlins' opening day starters: 108.8

Average career ERA+ of Fhillies' opening day starters: 121.4

If we only factor in the years since Lee has become one of the best pitchers in baseball, the Phillies ERA+ for the starting rotation changes to: 127

They were never comparable, and given that Javier Vazquez is a shell of the pithcer he used to be, and Josh Johnson is the Marlins best pitcher that was injured, your point is absolutely, completely invalid.

fat man - you know it. Will's inability to stray from his rhetotic is legend...wait for it

ugh, dary! Stupid palm pre keyboard.

will - he won't. Dom is going nowhere.

The Phils FO has told everyone who has asked about Brown that it's "not happening."

So, at least I can be thankful that Amaro et al are smarter than Will Schweitzer.

worley's value is not for the playoff run this year, but for next year and beyond assuming you buy out oswalt. worley is a very servicable 4 or 5 for very short money.same goes for brown who might very well prove valuable for the playoff run.

JW needs to tell us what he would give up for Pence

Underrated Kendrick starts, underrated Lidge pitches the 7th and underrated Tomas Perez is doing laundry today

I'm with Will here. Brown has more potential but today and probably next year worley is of more value. The guy is a vanimal, afterall

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG