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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

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No Beltran Or Pence? Now What?


I agree w/ much of what Gelb is saying, esp. the following:


It's a blow to the Phillies, not so much because they failed to acquire Beltran, but that the Giants did. San Francisco has a gaping hole in its lineup that Beltran's .904 OPS will fill. He was the best hitter on the market, and the guy I advocated for simply because of that reason. Rental or no rental, he provided the best boost to win now.


If I were r00b I believe I'd try to shore up the bullpen, & pray the Phillies don't have another Postseason Offensive meltdown.

Zack Wheeler is now the headlining prospect

Damn.

The goal in any trade is to get the best player in the deal. The best player in the 3-way deal with the White Sox, Cards & Jays is Colby Rasmus. Giving up quantity for quality is usually a smart move.

Don't like the Giants, don't like the Mets, don't like Beltran. Good non-move.

What about Ethier? Are the Dodgers really gonna lock him up after the season?

It's a shame we're seeing the Mets start to rebuild their minor league system like this, but at least it's not our prospects doing it.

Wheeler and Brown is a steep price. Not worth trying to top that for a rental.

clout: what do you define as major league success? Staying in the bigs? Making an ASG? Just curious.

wow they gave up wheeler. yikes. he'd probably be our top prospect

The worst thing Rube could do is knee-jerk into a move just because SF got their guy.

Also reporting Sanchez not included. Ugh, should just wait till its official to know for sure lol

Beltran to the Braves would have hurt us more than the move to the Giants. It's obviously not great for the Phillies - but if it had to be one or the other, I'd rather see him out on the West Coast.

Let the Braves and Giants fight it out in the 1st round of the playoffs, while we take on the Central winner - then see what happens in the LCS ...

I'd feel a lot better with Pence, Bourn or Cabrera in the line-up without having to give up Brown.

If that's true, that's a steep pay for a 2-month rental. The Giants really want to repeat, and well they should. But it's deals like this that landed Sabean on the hot seat before the Giants' pitching bailed him out last October.

breaking news!

the Mariners scored a run and are winning 1-0 vs. the Yankees.

Johnnysanz - don't worry about Sanchez. Giants playoff rotation will be Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong.

I'm not excited about facing Sanchez more often now that he's in NY. He always gives the Phillies fits.

Just Wheeler, NOT Brown or Sanchez.

he's not the deal

he's not in the deal

Wheels for the Hawk? Really?

Buster Posey is still out for the entire season, right? The SF offense is still rather feeble, Beltran or not.

I was initially worried that this made them a markedly more formidable team, but I'm not quite as concerned after looking at their season stats with (their best hitter) Posey.

Buster Posey is still out for the entire season, right? The SF offense is still rather feeble, Beltran or not.

I was initially worried that this made them a markedly more formidable team, but I'm not quite as concerned after looking at their season stats with (their best hitter) Posey.

I have heard that Wade turned down cosart/singleton/unknown player for pence

that is correct

So the Giants' pathetic offense just got a tiny bit less pathetic with the addition of Carlos Beltran? What are they going to do, catapult to mediocrity?

Who cares?

Apologies for the double-post

Also, if the Astros want four (4) "sure thing" prospects for Pence, they are out of their minds.

Who in their right mind would give up that much for Pence?

I love how the Giants getting Beltran is no big deal to some fans on here but if the Phils got him he would have been the "key" to another World Series victory

Pathetic that 7 of the 11 Headlines on ESPN.com start with "Sources:" Cover your asses much, ESPN? Why not concentrate on reporting actual news and leave the rumor mill to other outlets?

Billingsly, the Giants offense was just as pathetic last year, but they were able to catapult to the pennant and the ring. Guys with pop help in the playoffs - that's why Beltran is a meaningful addition to the Giants and why the Phillies chances of winning the pennant were diminished today.

Greene Brothers: That's what Stark reported earlier. Phillies had a deal with Houston Cosart, Singleton and another prospect and then walked away.

I worry more about The Reds getting Jimenez than SF getting Beltran

GRAB: Not me. I liked the idea of getting Beltran if the Phils gave up next-to-nothing and the Mets paid a chunk of his salary.

I don't think Beltran will not be a difference maker on a offensively challenged club. One that needs to fill a hole (i.e. the Braves or Phillies), however, is another thing altogether.

Great, the guy the Giants just added now headlines their offense. That's how bad that offense was...not too worried about it.

Glad he's not in ATL.

As we saw with last years NLCS it doesn't matter how the mediocre an offense is during the regular season. The Giants adding Beltran definitely helps them and there is no doubt about it.

Now Amaro will act for an RH bat. It just won't be Beltran.

Giants are getting him b/c they're including a top level prospect. They buckled to the Mets' demands because they need another hitter. Pablo Sandoval leads the team with 9 HR, and their next best hitter is Nate Schierholtz with an OPS of 764, then Pat Burrell with an OPS of 760. Not exactly a lineup of legends.

Of course Arizona may make a move to counter. They badly need another bullpen piece and a back-end starter.

Preacher: Never forget, the 'E' stands for 'Entertainment', & the 'N' most certainly does NOT stand for 'News'.

Supposed to be Beltran's home and away splits. He seems more comfortable in NYC than on the road. Wonder how he'll take to SF.

not sure he had a spot in atlanta but he'd be more concerning to me there than in SF.

Beltran is a career 1.302 OPS hitter in the post-season.


that's why Beltran is a meaningful addition to the Giants and why the Phillies chances of winning the pennant were diminished today.

Sorry Sptiz, I just don't buy it. No disrespect to your opinion, but what "pop" did they acquire last year? Cody Ross? I don't think the Ross and Beltran moves match up analogically.

R. Bill - Yeah, I agree with that. I just know how people would be going crazy if the Phils got Beltran

screw UZR - get me some hard hittin' Carlos Quinten.

Split G GS AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
Home 45 42 158 24 49 9 27 .310 .405 .589 .994 .325
Away 53 52 195 37 53 6 39 .272 .380 .451 .832 .297
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/27/2011.


There it is.

The Giants offense was pathetic last year but had miracle runs by C list players like Ross, Uribe, and a healthy Posey. None of that is likely to happen again even with Beltran and without Posey.

Also their pitching isn't as unhittable as it was. Lincecum is far from as intimidating as he was previously. Nice years from Vogelsong and I guess Bumgardner but those guys are their Worley's. Again not worried about it. And they just lost Sanchez who was a big piece of their production.

Glad he's not in ATL.

Exactly. IMO, he would help a team like the Braves way more than he will help the Giants.

I don't care one bit that he is in SF.

Also, for those going *meh* about Beltran on the Giants, I would remind you that the Mets have, as of today, the #5 offense in the NL and the best offense in the NL East according to Runs Scored at 458 (which is the definitive measurement of a lineup, not BA, OPB, or OPS). We're right behind with 442. Beltran was the highest OPS player in the Met lineup, followed closely by Jose Reyes and Ike Davis.

remember, this giants team is not last year's team. they don't have posey. that is immeasurably HUGE. beltran will help no doubt but the posey injury is really big

vance worley did not have one swinging strike last night and still shut the team down offensively. once again, beltran will help but they need more than him

Also, even Beltran's Away stats make him the #2 hitter on the SF lineup now. And would make him the #3/#4 best hitter in the Phillies lineup.

Finally, even if Philly and SF offered equivalent packages, he would still go to SF. Why? To keep him out of the division, obviously.

Emmett - Bumgarner was the 10th pick of the draft and a top 10 prospect in baseball. I love what Worley has done so far, but he ain't no Bumgarner.

Vogelsong, on the other hand, is a fluke.

Nats trying to get Ubaldo...theeeeyyy aaaacccctttuuuuaaaalllly cooooouuuuuld beeeeeee gooooooooooood neeeeeeeeeext yeeeeaaaaar

Wow, the Nats are employing an interesting trade deadline philosophy. While they have virtually no shot for the playoffs this year, they're in full-on "buy" mode, on some legit players under team control for the future. And they're willing to part with prospects to bring these guys to D.C. You don't see this every year. Will be interesting to see how it pans out.

On an unrelated topic, has anyone ever compared Worley's and Vogelsong's stats? Is Vogelsong also due for a regression?

(BTW, since he's a Kutztown University product, I wish him nothing but success, except when he pitches against the Phillies.)

Godfather: I am one of those *meh* guys. I don't mean to be rude, but I don't understand what you are trying to say in your post.

The Mets' offense is better than the Giants? Yes. Their leading hitter was Beltran? Yes.

My point is that on a team with a bad offense, one hitter does not all of the sudden make the lineup immeasurably better. Of course Beltran will help their offense, but I don't think it will be enough to all of the sudden make the Giants an offensive threat.

The rest of the SF lineup is terrible. Just pitch around Beltran make the rest of them beat you.

Look will the addition of Beltran help the Giants? Sure, but it doesn't bring them to a level that it would have brought the Braves and Braves most likely would not have given up a starter in their rotation. The Giants had to take a step forward in offensive while taking step backward in pitching. The step forward they took in offensive is about the best case scenario for us because if any contending opposing team could afford to improve their offense, as a Phillies fan, without causing significant discomfort, it's the Giants.

Stark: The Rockies are in active trade talks with six to eight teams, reports ESPN's Jayson Stark. A source tells Stark that two NL teams, yet to be identified, are in the mix, and the guess is that one of them is the Nationals.

One is the Reds, the other a Mystery Team. Would Rube go get him to flip him to Dodgers for Kemp?

Kutztown: Excellent question. I'll leave it to someone else to look at the peripherals and prove what I am certain must be true: that he is due for a huge regression that will make Worley's regression look modest, by comparison.

I don't think Beltran is good enough that we have to pitch around him

IF the Phils face the Giants, and IF the Phils bats were to go dormant again against them, and IF the Giants are on a hot streak again at the time, and IF Beltran were to have a good series, yeah he could be a real problem. Another edge, sure, but I just can't get too worked up about this; glad he didn't land in ATL.

Emmett - Giants aren't giving up anyone in their rotation.

The main thing is he isn't on ATL.

By the way, Ervin Santana is 3 outs from a no hitter.

Spitz,

I'm not comparing what Bumgardner will be to what Worley will be but they have been equally valuable to their teams this year and the fact of the matter is that the Giants need a "prospect" like Bumgardner and Vogelsong to compete unlike the Phillies where Worley's production, however not hyped or expected, is a luxury.

Its funny how people are downplaying Beltran's acquisition. Giants desperately needed an OF bat who could provide them with HR-power. They got both in Beltran.

Glad the Phils didn't get Pence though. I would rather see Quentin here because the one thing this lineup could use is power.

just get me oswalt back healthy so we don't have to start someone like blanton again in game 4 and we should be ok

The Nats are the NL Mystery Team in on Ubaldo?

No hitter alert: ESPN and MLB Network showing Ervin Santana trying to get a ho hitter in Cleveland. 9th inning, 1 out.

Did anyone really think that Mr. 2006 NLCS Knee-Buckle would put the Phils over the top this year? Beltran is Mr. Met - the face of a despised and pathetic rival. Mets fans will probably rejoice at his exit, seeing it as an opportunity to turn the page on years of disappointment.

He is to the Mets what Abreu was to us - a talented would-be captain who failed to bring out the potential in the team around him. One thing these Phils have on lockdown is team chemistry, and they're wise to stay as far away as possible from avatars of Mets failure.

GRAB: Cody Ross isn't good enough that the Phillies should pitch around him, but after his 2nd homerun in the series, they probably should have.

Still would rather see another lock-down bullpen arm though I just wonder what the price will be to get one. Having a hedge against Boras in the Madson's negotiations would be damn nice.

I thought J. Sanchez was sent in the deal? If not then I retract my previous comments about taking a step back in pitching via the trade.

Beltran to the Giants doesn't bother me. My concern is the Phils lineup. Hell, I'd be happy with Ludwick and a reliever at this point. My fear is RAJ will do nothing for the lineup and I believe that's a mistake.

And if Wade turned down that package for Pence, he's nuts.

The Vogelsong Regression Theorem has been outlined on this blog in the past. He's got fluke written all over him.

AJF - How is Beltran 'Mr. Met' compared to either Wright or even Reyes? How is he similar to Abreu either?

how'd Santana give up a run? congrats to him on his no no.

AJF - If Beltran is the Mr. 2006 NLCS Knee-Buckle, does that make Ryan Howard the Mr. 2010 NLCS Knee-Buckle?

Emmett - I think its just prospects. Regardless, Sanchez hasn't been very good this year and is on the DL anyway.

@Billingsly,

But Beltran's addition takes their offense from very poor to average/a bit below average.

He fills in nicely behind Sandoval as cleanup, moving Schierholtz to #5 or #2. Yes, the Giants still lack a leadoff man and they bottom of their lineup will still be putrid. But now they've got a 3-4-5 group of hitters that can hit well. And with that rotation, it's all they need to reach the playoffs.

And once in the playoffs, anything can happen. Beforehand I was thinking Arizona had a legitimate shot to dethrone SF, but now? Doubtful. And Arizona is certainly a preferable opponent to SF because they do not have a good bullpen.

a no-hitter that wasn't a shutout. Haven't seen one of those in a while

The rare 5 error day for Cleveland, nice.

Oh and you got No-Hit. Yikes.

pgammo Peter Gammons
The Beltran deal isn't done for 24 hours because of 10/5. Phils keep trying


says to me he wants to go to the phillies and he's waiting to see if we will get him

The Mets would be pretty disappointed if Beltran forces his way to Philly. I don't think we'd top an offer of Wheeler.

Godfather: Thanks for the explanation . I guess we just have a difference of opinion with regard to how much Beltran will improve the Giants' offense.

1st inning run in nohitter: error, SB, groundball, wild pitch

As I posted above, I'd like Beltran if we gave up very little and the Mets too on some salary.

Otherwise, no thanks.

conshy matt: Error in the first, and then a wild pitch to score the run

thanks EFF.

fantasy owners would love Ubaldo to get traded to the Gnats. myself included.

thanks MSH.

Uh oh-Source: #Braves turning attention to #Astros' Pence. Also have shown interest in #Padres' Ludwick.

conshy, error in the first inning allowed the baserunner who subsequently scored on a wild pitch.

•Two front office men, neither from the Astros or Phillies, told ESPN's Jayson Stark they believed the Phillies had a deal for Pence in the last 24 hours only to have the Astros back off. The Phillies offered Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singelton, and a second-tier pitching prospect for Pence, believes Stark. An Astros official told Stark they haven't said no to any specific proposal, however.
•The Astros want a "very top pitching prospect" for Pence, tweets SI's Jon Heyman, and the Phillies are trying hard. However, Heyman says most believe Pence will stay put

Excuse me, I should have said Below Average, apologies. They're #15th in runs scored in the NL.

Only San Diego is worse. However, they were in a similar fix last year before adding Ross, Burrell, and Sanchez, ultimately finishing 8th in Runs Scored for the NL (and just below the league average of 701).

The diff between 2006 Beltran and 2010 Howard is that 2010 Howard's k did not send his team into a 5 year death spiral. I'll eat my words if the 2011 Phils collapse like the 07 Mets, but somehow I don't see it happening.

In fact, if we got Beltran, I'd say our odds of an 07 Met collapse would have increased.

He isn't any more Mr. Met than Wright or Reyes, but like them, Beltran represents the Mets' failed hopes and dreams. We don't need sadness, we need gladness.

How long were we thinking for both guys to get up to the majors? If it takes those 2 - do it!

thanks Matt. anyone else?

HOT STOVE!

I'm sorry to quibble but, if Santana wins 3-1 on no hits, that is not a "no no". It's a no hitter. No no = no runs, no hits.

I think there may be some confusion here.

We all understand that a 7 game series between two teams fairly close in talent can go either way, right? That luck and who's hot can dictate the outcome, right? And that if Carlos Beltran happens to get hot in October, he could, in fact, be a "difference maker" just as Hideki Matsui, as opposed to Ben Francisco, was a "difference maker" in 2009, right?

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