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Thursday, July 28, 2011


Kendrick pitched a great game. Offense was just not productive. We need another bat to complete the roster.

Rosenthal and Morosi reporting that we've got till Friday to make a Pence deal, otherwise they'll move on to the Braves, etc.

Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal
Sources: #Phillies making progress on Pence. Talks coming to a head. Story with @jonmorosi.… #tradedeadline #MLB

It's gonna happen...

Not Brown. Not Brown. Not Brown!

It's bad enough to give both Cosart and Singleton, but I can live with giving up prospects that are both AT LEAST two years away from contributing.

1-12 with RISP tonight. All you need to know on why this team lost tonight.

Relative lack of power in this lineup to year's past looms larger in these types of games.

Going to be interesting to see how the Phils play next week in SF next week.

On Sunday, this will be the lineup:

1. Rollins, SS
2. Polanco, 3B
3. Utley, 2B
4. Howard, 1B
5. Pence, RF
6. Victorino, CF
7. Ibanez, LF
8. Schneider, C
9. Worley, P

Although, when its all said-and-done, I think the lineup should be this:

1. Rollins, SS
2. Utley, 2B
3. Pence, RF
4. Howard, 1B
5. Victorino, CF
6. Polanco, 2B
7. Ibanez/Mayberry, LF
8. Ruiz/Schneider, C
9. Pitcher

By next weekend, Oswalt, Polanco and Pence are added to roster. Brown is sent down to AAA for a couple of weeks (to get regular AB's) and will be recalled before September 1. Carpenter is sent back to LV. Francisco is traded or sent to LV.

Then again, I am still not convinced Brown isn't in the Pence deal. If Rube can pull off Pence without giving up Brown, he has his 2012 OF set too. Brown, Vic and Pence with Mayberry as the 4th (possibly sharing time in LF with Dom against LHP).

Pence, Upton, Melky...heck I'd even like to get Bourne. We need to get another professional bat. I just don't want to give up Dom or Vance. They will be cost effective players for the next few years. With them on board, we'll be able to sign the other, more expensive players to longer deals. I'd rather not make a move for a marginal player. We already have a bunch of those.

denny b.: I'll bet Brown doesn't get sent back to AAA. They kept him up last year without giving him regular ABs. I'll bet if they get Pence, the guys who leave are Carpenter, Valdez, and Francisco.

It amuses me when people complain about how rich people spend their money. Howard is spending less than 1 year of his future guaranteed salary on a house. How many of you are that frugal? And he's probably paying cash, so he won't be paying 2-3 times the price with a 30 year mortgage like you or I.
Would you rather see him hole up in some slum and hoard his money, or spread the wealth by providing 3 1/2 years employment for skilled craftsmen?

Charlie expressed reservations about losing any INF during tonight's post game interviews. I doubt Valdez will be going anywhere. If Brown isn't included in a potential deal for Pence, he may well be sent back to AAA. I'm guessing Carpenter goes when Oswalt returns, & Francisco goes when Polanco returns, or if the Phillies acquire Pence.

I am fine with Pence or even Upton as long as Brown and Worley remain. But I'm not sure that's possible.

Another night, another save. Giants can win in Philly. Too bad the Phils can't do the same in SF when the Phils come out for their annual beatdown.

I wonder about Valdez's roster security too. With Utley seemingly healthy & playing every day, I think we've reached the point where an extra bat off the bench is of more importance than the security of having an extra utility infielder for that dreaded multiple-injury scenario that has about a .01% chance of ever actually occurring.

Of course, I'd rather keep Valdez than Martinez, since he's a better hitter and the superior defensive player at 2 of the 3 infield positions. But I recognize that, if Mini-Mart has survived this long, the Phillies aren't going to dump him now.

We can beat them, I know we can. They're not in our head.
Can't really tell what the hell UC is ever thinking but from anyone else that would mean they are in our head. They're definitely in Beerleaguer's head, but that's not saying much.
Personally, I'm not worried about them at all. We ran into a junk train last year. Anyone can win a playoff series between two good teams with great pitching - so you can't promise we will. But if you gave me even odds I'd load into that bet.

Still not a big fan of a Pence trade for Cosart and Singleton. He is good player and I actually like him in general. He should fit into the clubhouse extremely well.

I still would like to see what it would take to get Mark Reynolds (.800 OPS) and Koji Uehara (0.70 WHIP) from Baltimore. Uehara is as good as Adams and I assume Reynolds can play RF/LF as poorly as Brown/Ibanez. I still do not have much faith in Polanco's health.

Concerned about records against contending NL teams:
Atl: 6-6
Mil: 1-2
St. L: 2-3
Pitt: 1-2
SF: 1-2
Ariz: 1-2

We don't have a winning record against a SINGLE NL team in contention for a playoff spot.

Bright spot: we kicked AL ass this year, against good squads, too (Bos, Tex., Tor., anyway).

MLBTR lists today's rumors re Hunter Pence and the Phillies:

"It appears Pence will remain with Houston until the offseason at least."

"The Phillies are making progress toward a deal for Pence"

"The Phillies have been Pence's most serious suitor."

"The Phillies [and others] are still involved . . . There's a better than 50/50 chance of a deal"

"The Phillies 'seem to have all but given up' on Pence after their big offer was rejected."

I'm glad I checked the rumor page because I was really confused about what was going on with Pence. Now it's all clear.

Polly claims this is the first time in awhile that he feels no pain. Here's hoping.

This is a good time to remind people that what happens in late July doesn't matter come playoff time. We took 2 of 3 from the Giants last year in September at home. Didn't matter come October.

BAP: It's important to know which national writers to listen to because some are better than others.

I get the impression that Stark has sources directly within the front office because he is usually dead on with what the Phils are doing.

Jon Heyman is pretty good as well.

Buster Olney is the worst of the national writers. He makes things up for the sake of having news. It's ESPN-itis.

I'm not high on giving up prospects but I guess giving up Cosart and Singleton is okay. Pitching-wise we have some depth in the system. Not so much hitting wise though. I hope Brown isn't involved. Pence-Brown-Vic next year would be a very good outfield.

r.a.d.y. Yea, why would you say they are not in our heads. Unless he was asked that specifically.

goody, UC was asked if he thought the Giants were in the Phillies heads and he scoffed at the idea.
Ricky Bo said that although he never felt a team was in his head, certain ballparks (and players) were.

Cholly should have said my mind's too small to fit a whole team in there.

What year was it that the Dodgers walked all over us in the regular season, and then we wooped them in the playoffs?

Trevor May ADDED in latest offer for Pence!

973espn 97.3 ESPN FM says: Latest on Pence to #Phillies: going to Houston would be Single-A right-hander Jarred Cosart, Trevor May and 1B Jonathan Singleton

This is a big offer. I can't see Atlanta willing to overpay like this when they can get Quentin or Upton (who can play centerfield) for less

I absolutely despise the idea of losing Cosart, Singleton, and May for a guy like Pence. Looking at his stat line, I don't see him as a major upgrade over Dom Brown, and I don't think Cholly would sit Ibanez regularly to put Brown and Pence in the OF at the same time. Pence is due for a big regression, and I think we're seeing it happen with his .171 average over the past 2 weeks. He only hit 2 HRs in July and 1 in June. I also don't like that the Phils would be stuck paying Pence big arbitration money next year. The prospect and cash price tag just feels like a lot for a guy who seems like an above average OF.

Please don't get Pence.

Funny to think that if the offense could have scraped together more than 2 runs against Cain and Lincecum, we probably wouldn't be having this discussion.

I think Amaro knows good quality when he sees it, and he has concluded that Pence and Quentin ain't it.

The deals being discussed are fantasies.

Not a big pence fan but we need to do something. If we are looking for a young, right handed, controllable (I think) OF who plays for a crappy team desperately in need of young talent, why isnt Adam Jones being talked about?

2008 Phils were 14-13 vs the other playoff teams in the regular season, saved by a 5-1 record vs Milwaukee.

The Orioles have no interest in trading Adam Jones

Cosart, May, & Singleton is a lot for Pence. And I like Pence. I like Quentin better.

In July, Brown has been better than Pence at the plate.

I don't understand how a right handed bat will help against the Giants.

We went 1-2 in a 3 game series where they had 2 of their aces going and we had 1 of ours, so I wasn't shocked at the result.

What's the last 23 year old outfielder who started for the Phillies regularly? Abreu was 24 when he came here, and was by far the best outfielder we've had in the last 20 years (in total). Age 23 Abreu is actually worse than age 23 Brown. I do NOT want to see us trade the next Abreu to the team we got the last one from, it would be too ironic.

Brown will be a great player in this league. DO NOT TRADE HIM FOR A GUY WITH A LIFETIME OPS OF .785 AWAY FROM THE BANDBOX THAT IS HOUSTON!!!!!!

A deal for Pence is an option, not a must. It's a deal they do more for 2012 than 2011. If he can be had for 2 quality prospects and some filler, that's reasonable. It would certainly improve the defense and, if it meant Ibanez taking on a bench role and Francisco going away, I'd do it.

Frustrating game last night as Lincecum kept throwing that changeup and they couldn't recognize it / lay off. Utley was his bitch and I expect he'd like to redeem himself next time. Fortunately for me, I was sleep-deprived and dozed before Martinez booted the ball in the 7th.

Danin philly: Couple things:

1.) Abreu came from Tampa Bay in a trade for Kevin Stocker.

2.) Pence's slash line in Philly is .300/.339/.460/.799

The issue is- Pence is a complimentary player. The Cosart,May,Singleton package is a steep price but if it doesn't require us to throw in Brown than I'm for the deal I suppose. I'm hoping that the extra big pitching prospect is so we can send Francisco to the Astros and keep Brown and Mayberry. My feeling though is that Mayberry will go to Houston in the deal as well.

I'll give away any prospects that are still 3-4 years from making the majors (if at all). There's no need to send Brown or Worley for a complementary piece like Pence or Quentin. If they wouldn't give that package for Halladay they shouldn't give it for those 2.

Truth, I didn't know Abreu came from Tampa, that's interesting. I know in Houston he played at age 22 and 23 and only did ok, though he had good peripherials. I can only hope Brown turns out nearly as good as Bobby. Bobby went from 250/329/372 at age 23 to 312/409/497 at age 24, and never had an OBP less than 393 for the Phillies. Imagine if we trade that for 2 years of Pence.

I'd kind of like to keep Mayberry, but if we get Pence then I understand he's expendible.

The best part about getting Pence is it will get Brown out of the field every day, which I think would be good for his sanity, and mine, this year. Next year Pence can man one corner and Brown another, and with Vic I think it will be a very good offensive and defensive OF.

Huge overpay for Pence.

Dan: Yeah Abreu was in Houston and then the Rays took him in the 97 expansion draft.

I think you're a little higher on Brown than I am but generally I agree. As I mentioned, I'm hoping that the two big pitching prospects was so we could keep the guys we want at the major league level. Hard to say.

Funny to see you clowns on here talking like little GMs. Idiots.

This alleged Pence deal gets worse and worse by the hour.

I trust Rube for the most part to get a good deal done, but Cosart, May and Singleton seems to be a bit high for Pence.

On a side note, it's a shame that Brian Wilson's shtick has grown so tired. He's actually a good closer, but I can't get past what an attention-starved loser he is.

I am starting to like getting Upton more and more over pence and the rest of the lot. His BAbip at home this year is .200, which is ridiculously low compared to his career .326 line. He isn't not hitting the ball either, his LD% is only down a tick from his career averages. Away from home he's an .827 OPS guy, plus base running, good defense, and speed. Throw him in the outfield with Victorino add in our aces pitching, only thing that's gonna score a run is one that leaves the park.

Thanks for the kind words, Todd.

It's trade deadline time. What else should we be talking about?

If it is Cosart, May, and Singleton that would be an overpay IMO. Hell, we paid less for Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt.

I'm a tad surprised about some of the negative talk surrounding Pence. He isn't a superstar, but he is a really solid player who plays with an Utley level intensity. One poster commented that Pence isn't an upgrade over Brown and that is just plain silly.

Assuming this deal goes through I'm not going to get all crazy about losing those three guys right away. They may all turn out to be very good, but I want to win the WS this year before this windows closes.

Since 2008 which traded prospect has had the most success? Gio Gonzalez?

Abreu 17-23 in minors: .290 .371 .451 .822

Brown 18-23 in minors: .298 .375 .469 .844

I would LOVE to see Brown turn into Abreu. Maybe we can trade him away then for nothing eventually too!

People seriously need to stop talking about the window closing...Has the window closed on the Yankees in the past idk, century? what about the Red Sox? They've been in the mix for about 8 years now, the Phillies are going to continue to contend year after year.

Count me out on Pence as well for this kings ransom. I'm sure this is all bs (i hope)

The only reason any window would close is by listening to the people saying "THE WINDOW IS GOING TO CLOSE TRADE AWAY EVERYONE FOR OVERHYPED VETERANS".

Thankfully(hopefully) our GM doesn't agree.

Really productive post, Todd. It helped advance the discussion.

Question for the masses...

Would you rather Worley, Singleton, and another instead of Singleton, Cosart, May?

The window may not "close" but this year and next it's wide open.

Can't imagine how the Phils have won so many games with the current roster.They better do something quick and stupid to fix their problem.
Solution Play Mayberry and Valdez more,send Mini to Dc to solve the budget crisis,get Howard to swing at strikes and go win the WS.
If it ain't broke,don't fix it.
It's not worth a pence!

I would rather send Worley and singleton and another prospect, yes

I'd drive Worley to the airport if we can trade him and an A ball prospect for Pence. Pence addresses a concern this year and a gaping hole next year for cost controlled dollars. That's a win in my book.

Coasrt, Singleton, May does feel like an overpay for Pence on some level.

Like I said- maybe adding in May allows us to keep Brown and Mayberry at the big league level. I know the original deal kicking around was included Singleton, Cosart, De Frautus, Mayberry, and possibly Stutes.

Keeping Brown means we have our outfield set for next season which is pretty good.

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
Pence may go now, but I'm hearing ask price remains unreasonable. #rays being more reasonable with upton.

sanz - We didn't get "nuthin" for Abreu. We got....uhhhh....(hold on, I know this) ummmm....uh...well, there was, uh....ummm...

Sorry. You were right. But we were also able to toss in a starting pitcher for that nothing.

Maybe we get back a bullpen piece for throwing in May. . . I really like May.

People keep saying Pence is 'cost controlled' But it's costs controlled for 10 million dollars....That's an overpay and means we lose Madson/Hamels/Rollins (or not and). I still say we're better off just standing pat, or getting Upton for a better price.

Worley, Mayberry, Savery and May - in fact all prospects whose last name ends in a "y" for Pence.

I think Madson is gone either way. That's your money for Pence.

I'm liking the Pence deal less and less... we're overpaying for a guy who isn't spectacular. Singleton, Cosart and May constitute our top 3 prospects and in the eyes of Keith Law (take it for what it's worth), two of the top 35 prospects in baseball and 3 of the top 60.

No way. Pence doesn't offer enough of an upgrade to justify that. It feels like a move based more on filling Ibanez's spot next season, and that's not worth our top 3 prospects.

I don't buy that the Giants as a team intimidate this team but would I buy they are a bit unnerved at hitting at AT&T Park? Yeah.

PNC Park in Pitts and AT&T Park in SF are just two places where this current core hasn't hit.

The Pence talk is infinitely more interesting and fun than the federal debt ceiling. Back to the game, I find it inconceivable that the Phillies did not try to steal a bag or 2 w/ Vic. They know they have to manufacture runs and play small ball vs. SF. Could this lead to the return of Bourn?

Cosart, May, and Singleton for Pence? 'This deal keeps getting worse all the time'

Even Heyman believes the asking price for Pence is "unreasonable"

Pence? I vote NO.

Pros: Good offensively and defensively. Entering his prime. Fits our team as a complementary piece.

Cons: Costly to acquire/buying high. High salary years, which hinders retention/acquisition of other players.

Instead, Rube should get a RP. Acquire an incrementally helpful RH hitter in August.

I say keep one or two of those prospects and go after Upton

Good for Ed Wade to ask for the moon for Pence. If you believe the rumors, he's got a bidding war going for Pence. I bet the truth lies in between. It'll cost a couple top prospects, and a 2nd tier guy or so. I still think RAJ pulls a head fake and brings someone else in-Upton? Kemp?

The overly cautious/negative BL take on Pence is reminiscent of the negatively to the rumored 2007(?) deal for Matt Holliday. Holliday was made into a creature of Colorado who wasn't good anywhere else. Oops, guess not.

If the Rays are being more reasonable with Upton then why not talk with them? Push the White Sox again on Quentin. Give the Twins a call and see if Cuddyer can be had. Check with the Padres on Ludwick and Adamd, call the Royals on Frenchy and Cabrera.

The Astros are too far down the rabbit hole to hold onto Pence at this point. Go back to them with some clear offers out there on your table. Push Wade's hand a little bit.

Why the love for Upton? I'd rather have a Ludwick/Adams package.

BTW: I wouldn't give too much to get Pence, either. Glad that Brown and Worley(need him this year) are seemingly off the table, but that doesn't mean I'd empty the Pharm for Pence.

Our #1, #2 and ~#5 prospect? That's too rich for my liking.

Just our #1 and #2 has me balking actually.

Look at the recent history of parting w/ top prospects: Carrasco, Taylor, Drabek, Marson(less so). They aren't exactly world beaters. While that doesn't mean Cossart, Singleton, et al won't be top players at some point, the point is "at some point". We need to win NOW.

forgot to add: get my point?

TTI: I agree. If that's the asking price for Pence, I ask around and use the Pence negotiations as a pawn in negotiating other deals. Rube is most likely smarter than me and definitely more intelligent when it comes to baseball operations, so I'm sure he's doing just that.

I can't see the 'Stros having as much bargaining power as they think they have for a player like Pence. Nice player, just not worth the moon.

Come on folks. If Cosart, May, Singleton turn into anything special, we trade for them later. We've been known to trade prospects away and then acquire them for a World Series run. Remember Adam Eaton?

I read on BL that you can trade about 100 top prospects before 1 world class beater emerges. Thin the herd Rube.

Never post a Jon Heyman tweet or article. BLer is a more accurate barometer for Trade Deadline speculation.

basil, don't forget we refused to trade Howard and Brown for anyone. We have a history of keeping our best propects, which means those we let go are less likely to be good. Thus it makes no sense to argue a prospect will be bad just because we let him go.

"basil, don't forget we refused to trade Howard and Brown for anyone"

Uh, no. We offered Howard to the Pirates for Kip Wells or was it Kris Benson? Howard was on the block.

Drabek was off the table at one point, but obviously was put back on. Might have been just been a building him up strategy.

Basil: So when we were sniffing the wildcard back in 04-06, we shoulda just dumped the likes of Utley/Howard/Hamels and went for the gold, right?

Im not saying Cosart/Singleton/anyone is untouchable, but do you give #1 and #2 for Hunter Pence? Its not like you're getting a MVP/CY Young candidate like we did with Doc/Lee. He's a good player who would make our team overall better, but not transform it into some unbeatable force.

It's a shame this isn't the Wade of old. We would have had Pence for a week already in exchange for Mathieson, Zagurski, Rizzotti, and Francisco

We aren't sniffing the wild card now. We are attempting to win a WS or 2 or 3.

BJ Upton please. he's got 24 more hits on the road, 10hrs on the road vs 6 in tampa, 26 more rbi's, .279 vs .179 avg, .843 vs .562 OPS.

get him the hell out of tampa and he's your guy.

Howard is having a brutal year vs. lefties, as we all know. to wit:

BB% 6.7
SLG% .317
ISO .081
wOBA .279

cherry on top:

BABIP .330

historically, he's been off and on vs. lefties. he's had a few pretty good years off of southpaws, particularly 2007 (16 HR's .351 wOBA) and 2010 (12 HR's .358 wOBA). i wonder what is going on with him this year???

When Howard hits the ball over the left field fence against a lefty, then we know he's lock in.

I'm very interested to hear some asking prices for Carlos Quentin, I havent heard much though.

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