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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

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What a fantastic effort by the team tonight.

65 wins matches the total for the 1988 and 2000 seasons.

Ching chong chee chonnnnnnng!!

What did Utley just say at the end of the post-game interview with Sarge that caused a knowing chuckle by Wheeler and TM? Something about hair or the lack of it? Just wondering if it was a small shot at Wheeler's rug or Sarge's hairless dome.

Matt Cain or Rick Allen (def leopard): all-star righty

I think he said "you're bald."

I don't know how they can even entertain trading Worley right now. This kid is no fluke.

Anyway, that was a very satisfying game.

Bake: I think it was a crack about how Chase Utley has more gray hair now than he did when he hit his first ITP homer.

To hear the Giants' announcers tell it, Lincecum really looked awful this afternoon. I suspect he won't be pitching tomorrow either.

king of bob is the hib to the jib guy. not a great guy to be, but that's his thing.

if quentin is re-emerging as a realistic possiblity, i like him about as much as pence. pence is the better overall player, but i think that should make quentin more reasonalbe to acquire and he brings something this team could use more than anything - hr power.

all that being said, i like the way this team is playing right now.

On the SF broadcast, Krukow says "Of all those home runs Zito gave up tonight, only one of them might have been a home run in San Francisco." Um, would that be the inside the parker?

Now the other guy says, "In that small ballpark, all you have to do is get the ball up." Geez.

"Howard goes deep tonight.

Posted by: Lincoln Hawkes | Tuesday, July 26, 2011 at 06:00 PM"

I love when I'm accidentally prescient.

It wasn't clear whether or not Raul's eyes were actually open when he caught the ball



That was uncalled for.

Utley said "Muff" as in "Muffin", aka Wheels.

KOB should say he's solly. What a plick!

Did he say "love?"... it was just one word.

Speaking of one word - awesome. What a game. Raul was awesome, Chase was awesome, Vanimal was awesome. I don't want to see him traded. He's a Phil, dammit.

"Ching chong chee chonnnnnnng!!
Posted by: They Call Me the King Of China"

The best part of They Call Me getting banned won't be not having to read his racist crap, but rather not having to read that "hib to the jib" and all caps spam.

Wonder if the Giants announcers complained about their cheap HRs in the NLCS last year?

On the SF broadcast, Krukow says "Of all those home runs Zito gave up tonight, only one of them might have been a home run in San Francisco." Um, would that be the inside the parker?

Now the other guy says, "In that small ballpark, all you have to do is get the ball up." Geez.

Posted by: PalyChris | Tuesday, July 26, 2011 at 09:24 PM


Sounds like the idiot Washington Nationals TV guys. I have actually heard them talk about CBP being a bandbox during games when the Nats weren't even playing the Phils.

Worley NL Rookie Of the Year?

.20x BAA, 1.0x WHIP, 2.0x ERA...

I'd like to think so, but I wonder if he's going to be trade chip with more clout than somebody like a JA Happ was.

I totally hate the fact that they move the fences back at CBP when the Giants are batting...seems unfair to me.

The younger and hungrier Braves had 2nd and 3rd, none out, and bases loaded 1 out, no runs.

it's just lazy to constantly complain about the ballpark when you're team is being outplayed.

I believe I made a similar post last week, & tonight's performance only solidifies my view: the Phillies can't afford to trade a SP who has been as solid as Worley, esp. w/ Oswalt's return/performance when he does return still a big question mark. I'd love to see the Phillies make a deal for another bat or 'pen piece, but only if said deal DOESN'T include Worley.

It's amazing how the walls are deeper for the Giants' players... Oh, wait.

In their defense, it was less about complaining about the bandbox, and more (throughout the game) complaining about Zito, saying that pitchers have to keep their pitches down there because the ballpark is "unforgiving." But still...a couple of those balls were crushed, weren't they?

I suspect bop/jib was an old friend. Possibly one who enjoyed a kool beverage now and again

Center Field
CBP: 401 ft
AT&T: 399 ft

Left Center:
CBP: 409 ft
AT&T: 404 ft

Freaking bandbox.

UC in his press conference was referring to IbaƱez' defense and called him "very adequate." Oh, that silver tongued leader of the gang has it just so with the English language. He makes me laugh, but I wonder how Raul feels about being labeled "very adequate?" My interpretation is that he was giving his leftfielder a left-handed compliment without finding the right words. Anyway, he's our loveable leader until/unless they get on a losing streak. If they do, he reverts to being a dolt.

Box score says Worley didn't get a swinging strike. Does anyone know how rare it is to pitch a complete game without getting anyone to swing and miss? Seems unique to me.

Why didn't those Giant cry babies draft Worley?

The reason opposing teams think the ballpark is "unforgiving" is because since CBP opened the home team's line up has been "unforgiving" to pitching mistakes.

As their road HR totals corroborate.

Pretty unique I would think...and not exactly the sign of a dominant outing. I do have to say that several balls were crushed off him only to be stopped by good to great defense (Raul's catch, Utley's play deep in the hole, Mini-Mart's snatch on that liner, etc).

It was a BABIPtastic effort by Vance.

Vance "Dice" Clay says ba-da-bing, ba-da-BABIP! OHHHHHH!

That's right, Lincoln.

Let us not allow the euphoria over tonight's win to completely eclipse the fact that it came at the expense of San Francisco's worst SP. The Giants' broadcasters ought to be bitching about Lincecum's "illness", not Philadelphia's ballpark.

I was waiting til after the game to offer this so as not to distract from the game thread.

I think David Murphy on DNL nailed the issues surrounding Hunter Pence right now and why he may not be worth pursuing. He is a complimentary piece, albeit a nice one. However, it's impossible to overlook the fact that he averages 25 home runs a year and is not a high OBP guy. The issue is though that he is a complimentary piece that right now is carrying the price tag of an impact piece.

That is a result of the market being really shallow at the trade deadline right now. Beltran is a true impact piece but there is a disconnect between what the Mets want and what teams want to pay. It's clear too why teams don't want to pay big for Beltran. He can not be offered arbitration which means you have to give up big pieces to get him and can't get those picks back in the end.

Wade knows that and hence the price tag for Pence is high right now. Someone is going to have to blink off their price for a guy like Beltran or Pence to move. And I don't think paying a huge price for Pence is necessarily the way to go.

It's amazing to think that a team that has Roy freakin Oswalt on the DL for over a month can go the entire time without losing a series, and post a record of 18-8. If he comes back pitching anywhere near to what he's done in the second half in his career (check out Roy Oswalts August/September numbers if you ever get a chance: it's fun), this team will be damn near unbeatable.

I really like Krukow, but I'm pretty sure Howard's homerun would have gone out of any park in the major leagues. And Ibanez and Mayberry's would have been homeruns in about 25 major league parks.

It's been stated here often, but it can't be said enough: CB Park's reputation as a bandbox is just fiction. It WAS a total bandbox when it opened. But, ever since they moved the fences back, it has been more or less in the middle of the pack in terms of homerun friendliness.

Always good to post this write up by thegoodphight.com on how neutral the Phillies park plays, not only in terms of homeruns, but overall offense:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/7/15/2276494/phillies-citizens-bank-park-still-playing-neutral

Zito is unlikely to get any time in the postseason. And it's unlikely Worley will start in the postseason if Oswalt is healthy. So, this was really not a test of anything.

But it's important to note that Worley shut down Sandoval and Huff and really did something that KK has never done effectively: shut down lefthanded hitters. He has that two seamer that is very effective against lefties.

I think we can stop the comparisons to Happ now, can't we? Worley needs to keep working on his pitches, obviously. But he had a plus two seam fastabll, plus curve and plus command of an average fastabll all game. If his slider/change ever develops, he'll be a top 4th starter. And if his command is anything like it's been, he'll be a solid 3. But even if he's a 4-5, he'll be cheap for a long time.

He's not Happ dancing through the raindrops. And he's no KK, struggling to get lefties out.

As long as good pitchers are willing and eager to pitch for us in the Bandbox, who cares what TV crews talk about?

Gtown, under the same umbrella is the fact that SF's offense only scored twice off of a rookie. What exactly are they going to do when facing Roy, Cole, and Lee?

Complaining about sick Timmy is as silly for them as complaining about the stadium. Their bats let them down as much as Zito did.

aksmith, let's not forget that Happ through a couple shutouts in 2009, including a complete game shutout against the Rockies, who were a very good offensive team that year.

Not saying that one is better than the other, but Happ nearly won rookie of the year in 2009. Worley looks like he's got the stuff to stick at the bigs (as does Happ still, despite his struggles), but he's a mid to back-end starter (that's not a bad thing either...to be a starter in the majors is a very GOOD thing). I just don't think he's the 5th ace.

Still, what he's done this year has been incredibly impressive. I really like the way he just attacks hitters, and I also like that he set a goal to go deeper into game, and he's made that a reality.

threw*


hib to the jib...another game another win

CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-CHASE UTLEY YOU ARE THE MAN-

CB Park ranks 14th this year in terms of homeruns allowed. Last year, it ranked 10th. The year before, 16th. That's about as consistently average as a park can be.

Caveat: I do not know how the statisticians calculate these numbers. Obviously, the numbers could be hugely affected by the composition of the home team's lineup or pitching staff -- unless those issues are somehow controlled for.

They're worried about Lincecum, bitching about their lack of a power bat, and lavishing praise on Worley.

Lots to like about tonight's game. Vance is a bulldog out there.

Fat - I watched every game Happ threw for the Phillies. And I've seen all but one of Worley's now. The command Worley has is better than Happ ever had. Happ seemed to mystify hitters with deception. But he was all over the place. Maybe effectively wild would be the description. Worley is simply a better pitcher so far this season than Happ ever was. And his control and command seem to be improving with each start.

I also don't think he's an ace. His top is as a 3 and more likely a 4 or 5 in the longrun. But there's a lot to like with him and again, he'll be making nothing for this year and two more then be relatively cheap after that.

That was the most enjoyable game I've seen in days.

aksmith, I like Worley a lot, as well. If he can work on some things, avoid the walks, he'll be a very valuable pitcher for the Phillies for asome years, if they hang on to him.

I pretty much agree with aksmith's assessment of Worley, although none of his pitches is a plus. The key thing is that his command at the major league level has been excellent and far more consistent than anything Happ or KK showed for this long a period of time.

And, if he maintains excellent command at the MLB level, he will be a lot better than a #3.

Since his current command is far superior to anything he ever showed in the minors, is it a fluke? Are the umps better at calling strikes? Did he figure something out in his mechanics?

I don't know. But if his command is for real, he's going to be a very good pitcher for a very long time, assuming he remains healthy.

BAP: "Obviously, the numbers could be hugely affected by the composition of the home team's pitching staff."

Bingo!

In the first several years CBP was open, it ranked among the top 3 HR parks in the NL. Did the pitching staff have anything to do with that? The post-steroid decline of offense has been a factor as well.

My view is that CBP is neutral- to pitching-biased on non-HR hits. It is, however, a big HR park (bandbox if you like) when the weather is hot. Its location close to the river makes it a park much influenced by the weather, as is Wrigley Field. It has nothing to do with its dimensions.

I think its telling to see how much bitching the batters and Worley himself were doing to the homeplate umpire. Almost every pitch was on the black. Tons of pitches could have gone either way. Really pinpoint control. Amazing.

Clout:

"Park Factors are calculated by comparing stats in a team's home games with stats in that team's away games, against the same opponents, in order to control for team-by-team differences. A number higher than 1.0 indicates a hitter's park, while lower than 1.0 is a pitcher's park -- a park factor of 1.1 indicates the stadium increases offense by 10%."

and

"... the bottom line is there are essentially no more runs scored, and no more home runs hit, in the Phillies' home games than there are in their away games."

Park studies have shown the Phillies park to play neutral in homeruns and scoring in general.

I think CBP has its undeserved reputation because we've been cranking homeruns for years.
Maybe this has already been posted: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

Anyhow, it isn't the park that is hitter friendly (we hit homeruns on the road as often as we do at home). It's the lineup. We were 2nd in '07, 3rd in '08, 1st in '09, and 2nd in '10 in homeruns.

As has been constantly pointed out, over the last four years we haven't exactly been a small-ball type of team.


I praise Worley for what he has done for this team this year, but look at his numbers.

1. Worley has a totally unsustainable BABIP.
2. Worley has an unsustainable LOB%.
3. Worely isn't giving up home runs, which will regress.
4. Worley isn't getting swinging strikes which isn't a good sign for his K% going forward.

VERY rarely do pitchers outperform their peripherals when statistics like this try tend to suggest current performance is a fluke.

Trade him.

The home team's pitching staff and offense do not factor into park factors, I believe they are controlled for.

Time of game 2:08. How retro is that?

Looks like NcCann might have hurt himself attempting to throw out a runner. He's leaving the game in the 9th.

Edit: McCann.

Don't know if this has been mentioned, but MLB Trade Rumors has the newest reverse-engineered rankings up. Mildly surprised to see Chooch doing so well, not as surprised to see the top reliever.

I understand, but I don't understand the Park Factors (in theory).

You'd think that if the place was a huge park, you'd be down on home runs, and then slightly elevated on doubles and triples since the walls are far away. I understand how Fenway works, which has a far left field, and a huge right field wall... but the Pirates PNC is under 1 in almost every category.

So are the Pirates the best defensive team ever? Do they and other teams come there and play 1-0 games every night, lighting up the board the night after they leave?

sdphillie, climate and environmental conditions affect homeruns a lot too.

Fatlotti: Yes, I get that. Except that for the early years of CBP, that wasn't true.

Parks factors for CBP per BB-Ref:(100 is neutral, the higher the number the more hitting-biased, the lower the number the more pitching-biased)

2004: 104
2005: 106
2006: 105
2007: 104
2008: 102
2009: 102
2010: 100

You notice a trend there?

Now's the time of year when the statement, "Ryan Howard is on pace to hit X homeruns this year" will need to be recalculated on a frequent basis.

Between the baseball trade deadline and the NFL mess, my head might explode.

Two observations: 1. Howard is getting much more uppercut in his swing. Obviously a very good sign that he's loading up; 2. In my scrutiny of the box score, a fascinating statistic popped up: Worley had 29 called strikes and no, zero, nada swinging strikes. Now, that's hard to do, especially when he got five k's.

Clout: They did move the LF fences back, I believe after either 2005 or 2006, right?

Jack: Correct. The LF fence was moved back 5 ft. before the '06 season began.

A cursory look at Vance's minor league stats suggests slow steady improvement. He didn't handle the promotion to AA well, and had his only bad season there, in 2009. But it looks like he got his stuff together the next year and really started to dominate in 2011 (1.046 WHIP, 2.31 ERA before his promotion to the big club).

isn't it fair to say that worley's peripheral stats are afffected also by the fact that a) he's a rookie in a role no one including himself expected him to be in right now, and b) they've been slow to increase his innings and pitch count. Selection, batter knowledge, and pitching IQ are all things that will improve over time which will increase his k's etc... what's harder to teach is control, which is what he's demonstrated he has. I'd clear out the farm before i trade him.

clout, the B-R calculation of park factors is pretty convoluted, but can be followed. Also, yearly park factors seems to be based on 2-3 year averages, so if the park was more homer friendly before the wall adjustment, that would still affect into 2006 and 2007 numbers. 2008 going forward is when you'd start to get a true reflection of how the current park plays. The current park apears to play very neutral interms of scoring and homeruns.

It's a good read, the park factors calculation at B-R.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/parkadjust.shtml

CBP is HR-friendly:

Once it warms up a bit and it gets humid/muggy by late May or early June, CBP is a HR-friendly park. Really no arguing that. It is also a park that is harder get XBH though especially 3Bs. Forget where I read it but the OF sq ft. at CBP is slightly smaller than the MLB average.

CBP isn't quite the band box that people make it out to be though especially when it gets cool here early in the year or in late Sept./October.

There are more HR-friendly stadiums than CBP including US Cellular Field (White Sox), Coors Field (Rockies), Great American Ball Park (Reds), Rangers Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers), and the new Yankee Stadium (Yanks).

Grilli working into trouble in the 12th against atl...

David Hale (via Twitter): "Since 1974, the complete list of pitchers w/ 5+ IP, 2- ER in at least 11 of first 13 career starts: (1) Vance Worley. That is all."

Alex Gonzalez is Capt. Rally Killer. If only he could muster on OBP over .300.

Who's staying up to see how long the Pirates and Braves can go before someone loses?

By definition, a rookie cannot regress to mean. What's mean for a rookie?

The more I see Worley pitch, the less I am able to formulate in my mind a logical and attainable trade scenario involving him that is favorable to the Phils.

And at this point, I'm kind of glad. I like what I see of the guy, respect how he continues to work and progress, and really would hate to see him go.

McCann to the 15 Day DL w/ a Strained Left Oblique muscle.

I would be sad to see Worley go, and he's way more promising than Happ ever was thanks to a much better walk rate. But if you can sell high on him you've got to do it. He's a pretty good, extremely cheap pitcher with room to improve his peripherals, especially his walk rate, and if the Phils hold on to him that's great. But his 3 luck(ish) stats - BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB% - are all extremely favorable right now. If someone wants to bite, let them bite.

That said, I doubt he'd be a trade piece at this point. There's no way we'd give him up for a half year of Beltran, and it seems like Houston would ask for more for Pence. And trading him for a short term bullpen arm would be kind of silly.

Spitz- not necessarily true...certain things are even for all pitchers, regardless of experience. For instance, virtually all pitchers have a babip around .300. Some pitchers are slightly above or below that number, but all normalize around it over a large enough sample size. Same is true with an approximate 75% LOB rate. All pitchers normalize around that rate as well. If a rookie, like a JA Happ for instance, has numbers way out of line with those you can expect some regression (see his performance in Houston this year). Worley fits that profile as well, at the moment. He is due for some regression. The question is whether that regression comes this season, or further off in the future.

Clout, agree with your assessment on Worely. There are better 23 year old arms but not with his command. I too think that he will evolve to better than a #3 starter.

"By definition, a rookie cannot regress to mean. What's mean for a rookie?"

Spitz, the mean would be the mean of other pitchers with the same profile as Worley, i.e. the same peripherals (K%, BB%, swinging strike %, GB%, etc.).

"By definition, a rookie cannot regress to mean. What's mean for a rookie?"

Exactly. There is no way to know what he will do going forward. Obviously, he will lose games and go through streaks just like any pitcher, but it remains to be seen if Worley is the real deal. One thing is for sure-he shouldn't be traded.

ATTENTION GIANT ANNOUNCERS: The shortest of the 4 phils HR tonite was Raul's at 405FT.(Utley's was listed at 406 and would have been out if it was a few feet to the right.)
That is all.

14th inning in Hot 'Lanta.

Tonites box score oddities: 1-1w/RISP and 1LOB.

Dobbs w/a last minute start tonite:5RBI plus a run scored when he hit into a DP.

Nats obtained RF Jonny Gomes tonite(to replace Werth?)

Coming into tonight's game:

-Worley had a .254 BAbip. He recorded 27 outs today, gave up 3 hits and had 5 Ks. Homeruns aren't part of the BAbip calculation, so this means that of the 24 defendable balls that were put in play, only 2 turned into hits, or an in game BAbip of .083, so that .254 figure is going down a good deal. This is due for regression.

-Worley had a 80.6% LOB%, and he surrendered 3 actual baserunners (again, homeruns don't count toward the calculation). One scored, so his LOB% actually did regress tonight. Though it should regress more, hovering around 80% isn't ridiculous.

-Worley had a 3.1% HR/FB ratio. I'm not sure how many of his batted balls were fly balls. Either way, 3.1% is crazy low, and this will rise up.

-Worley had a 1.85 K/BB ratio. This is not a recipe for good success over a long period for a starter. Luckily, that figure will improve after his 5/1 ratio tonight, but his 3.75 BB/9 coming into the night, while not crazy high on its own, is high for a guy with a 6.93 K/9. Though his walk rate will decrease after tonight's performance, so will his K-rate.

-He's not a groundball machine, but a rate of 44.5% is pretty good. It's probably about league average.

Worley is due for some regression, but at his current rate, he should be a 3.5-4 ERA pitcher. As a back of the rotation guy, I don't see why anyone should be worried about that happening.

I certainly hopes he keeps this up, and I commend him for doing what he's done so far, but I expect him to come back to Earth a bit this season. Though, I'd probably suspect that of any pitcher sporting a 2 ERA over their first 11 starts. Having a sub 2-2 ERA is just difficult for any pitcher to maintain.

Without McCann, the Braves are the Pirates. Any suggestion that this game goes 22 innings will doom the Phillies/Giants to play 25 tonight.

Bucos fail in the top of the 15th.

On Worley: Eventually, ML hitters will make adjustments and hit him better. Still, I always love to see players up from the farm do well. Don't want to see him go.

Interesting contrast. When a Phillie gets injured, he remains on the active roster, doesn't play for 12 days, makes a random pinch-running appearance on Day 13, and goes on the 15-day DL on Day 14.

When a Brave gets injured, he goes to the 15-day DL before the game even ends.

Alright, I'll figure out who won this Braves game in the morning. I'm going to bed.

If we're lucky, they'll still be playing in the morning.

We have been waiting years for a pitcher to come up from the minors who looks like he might be a legitimate MLB starting pitcher.

They just don't come along very often and I don't like the team without Worley on it. He's been a very good #4 and nobody knows when Blanton is coming back or how healthy Oswalt will emerge from rehab. I also don't like KK as a #4 and we do not have a legitimate #5 behind him.

It could be argued that we don't need Worley to win the division this year, but the Phils are almost an ordinary team when the big 3 don't start.

Christhian Martinez is thaving the tharting thtaff armth.

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