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Friday, July 29, 2011

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Why in the world would we refuse to part with Brown for the best pitcher in baseball but give him up for Hunter effing Pence?? Give me a break. He's a solid playing masquerading as a star on the worst team in the league. We need to walk away from this deal. Cosart and Singleton was a more than generous offer.

I want to win now and that is why I said yes. Now, if Rubes can make it happen without Brown in the deal, I would much prefer that. But, as for winning right now, I have to say yes.

Because a year and a half have passed since then?

Not saying to move Brown, but it's not like they can't change their opinion on the guy.

I voted no.

From what it sounds like, a deal will get done today either way. So we should know by tonight.

Walk away r00b.

No, I wouldn't. I think.

Aramis Ramirez has a no-trade clause and doesn't want to go anywhere.

Yes, include Brown. That swing is tooooo long for the Majors and will be his undoing.

Heather: Fangraphs pegs Ibanez as 0.4 runs above average as a baserunner this season. He's not fast, but he's at least an average baserunner.

He's terrible in the field, but plays left field, so his defense is minimized.

But I get irrational hatred, it's always present on Beerleaguer.

I think we all want to "win now." Pence isn't going to be a guy that guarantees that (if such a player even exists). If we were acquiring a player simply to "win now," the Phils should have parted with Cosart for Beltran (and for what it's worth, I wouldn't have supported that deal either).

This would be a classic case of "buying high" on Pence and "selling low" on Dom.

Jack nails it. And GM's who sell low and buy high find themselves without a job.

Jack: Absolutely.

I voted "NO" and will a million times over if the price is that high.

jack: exactly. It would be stupid. One bat isn't going to completley change the fortunes of this team anyway. Christ, it's not like were not in the driver's seat in the NL.

I voted no. While I agree that it's a win now mentality, I would not give up the guy who you wouldn't give up for Halladay or Lee, 2 better players than Pence

From what we've seen from Ruben, he has to be smarter than this. He can't be that hard-up for Pence.

Rosenthal says Pence is the Phillies to lose.

For the first time, I'm rooting for the Phillies to lose.

If you include Brown, you might not have to give up Cosart and Singleton.

Do you value Brown more then both of them together?

Do you think Singleton has more upside as a major leaguer then Brown?

If you have to trade both Brown and Cosart, does Houston have to bring more then Pence to the table (maybe a nice low level prospect too)?

If you trade Brown, do you think a lower cost lefty bat can be acquired in the off-season to pair with Mayberry in LF? And how would that production relate to what you would get with Brown in LF?

And do you think Pence is the final piece of the puzzle? Does he help all of the lefty's in the lineup suddenly start hitting good RH pitching?

All of these questions are what Rube is mulling.

By the way, my opinions on Pence are not meant to suggest I think Pence is a bad player. I like him a lot. I'd be willing to include one of Cosart or Singleton and two or three lesser prospects. I think he'd be worth that.

He's not worth our top 3 prospects and he's not worth any deal including Brown.

repost(back to back last post of a thread for me, awesome)

I have more faith in Amaro than I do Twitter.

I appreciate all the work those guys do, but I dont let their stories/angles shape my thoughts on how/what Ruben is thinking about doing.

if Brown's the price for Pence, I'd rather have Upton even if he does have an contact issues

Absolutely no way in hell am I dealing Brown for Pence and if that means he goes to the Braves then so be it. I was sure last night he wasn't involved in this. Now that he is, I seriously am voting it down. I hope RAJ balks at this. Seriously, do the Ludwick/Adams package and call it a day if that's the case.

You know what wouldn't surprise me? If the negotiations involve including Brown AND Cosart in order to get the Astros to pick up the rest of Pence's salary this year, thus keeping us under the luxury tax.

Of course, Rube could be making a deal that has nothing to do with Pence. He's surprised us before.

lorecore: Do not question the Twitter!

Rube is driving up the price for Pence. He's like that Dave Hester guy on Storage Wars. He's making the others (Braves) overpay. Y-E-E-E-E-P!

It's ruben. For all we know a kemp deal will be announced on thursday. LOL

56 people (25%) voted "yes"? Wow. I guess we found the people calling into WIP to talk baseball. Stick to the Vince Young news, please.

I am shocked by that.

sunday rather. typo

If Wade manages to walk away with Brown, then all future Wade-is-a-dope jokes will be permanently verboten. He will have played the market expertly.

The trade deadline just needs to get here so we can stop arguing about hypothetical scenarios and criticize the results.

Jack hit it exactly. it's not the time to sell all these pieces for a guy won't put the phillies over the top IMO. if it was for beltran, i'd probably do it, but not for hunter pence.

Jack - Yup. I am not opposed to trading Brown necessarily either. Just not for a guy like Pence.

"Rosenthal says Pence is the Phillies to lose"

Since Rosenthal was the first to bring up the Halladay in/Lee out stuff a few years back, he's a guy I pay attention to.

bad deal. Cosart and Singleton was overly generous for a piece that isn't needed. I wouldn't do Brown straight up for Pence. No reason to think Brown can't produce at the same level as Pence over the rest of the year. Rube can't be serious on this one. Hopefully just driving up the price for others.

FWIW, I don't think Brown will be included in the final deal.

I think this afternoon, the Phillies and Astros will complete a deal involving Singleton, Cosart and May for Pence, with the Astros contributing $1M of salary for the rest of the year.

phils and nova: You'd have offered all these guys on a 2 month rental?

Bed Beard: My thought exactly. Ever since Rosenthal was all over that story, I have taken everything he says more seriously than other writers.

As long as it doesn't include the Vanimal...I am all for anyone we throw in!

Does this hunger for Pence make any more sense than the Nats' hard-on for Denard Span?

I think this afternoon, the Phillies and Astros will complete a deal involving Singleton, Cosart and May for Pence, with the Astros contributing $1M of salary for the rest of the year.

Jack, I don't think that deal would bother me that much. I'm not crazy about it, but I could live with it.

Brown is the #1 prospect in our system. He has shown he can hit at the ML level, which is far more than any other prospect we have. He has shown the kind of peripherals you drool over when considering his upside.

Trade that for Pence for 1 1/2 years at $25 MM?

Is there a "Hell, no" option?

Quentin would make this offense lethal

Singelton, Cosart, and May is more than the Phils gave up for Lee or Halladay.

Ooh, Denard Span. That would be nice.

god. please. no.

Brown's not going to go anywhere.

The Astros will get their prospects in Cosart and Singleton and some other piece. It's going down. That's not a bad move for Pence. By the time Singleton is ready we will have already developed other prospects, moved on from this core and made trades to acquire established names. We'll cycle just fine.

I'd like to point out that over the last few seasons the Phillies have been involved with a lot of big trades around the deadline.

During the previous deadlines, twitter was useful for one thing, and that was saying that Team X was interested in Player X. Never did I see an "expert" actually correctly predict the prospects involved.

Pence to the Phillies has been going back and forth for a few days, and I'd bet that if this happens the deal probably won't be one we are discussing here.

I expect to see either Pence or Upton as well as Dom Brown in a Phillies uniform next week. I get the sense that Rube wants to complete a trade that gives him an outfielder to play with Dom and Vic in 2012.

I don't know what it is that you all see in D-Brown that makes him so untouchable for a proven commodity like Pence............who BTW bats right (just what the Phils need right now). I totally realize that everyone in baseball is in love with Brown but so far, I see what I see. A .250 hitter with 5 HR's and 18 RBI's during an extended stretch of playing time. And have any of you seen him in the field this year?? Stumbling and bumbling around routine fly balls and his arm while strong has been TOTALLY inaccurate. Pence is a .300 hitter who will give you 25 HR's and near 100 RBI's and will field his position without angst. This could be a GREAT deal for the Phils who with the current staff and aging lineup are in a WIN NOW mode.

I think the surprise Rube will spring on us is Aramis for Dom Brown, Cosart and Singleton.. I'd do that in a heartbeat.. or maybe Brown and Polanco (if deemed healthy)

The only writer mentioning Brown in the deal is Jon Heyman. How can Jon Heyman have any credibility on this topic, considering yesterday he said that the Braves were the only team talking to Houston, only to have Rosenthal correct him an hour later with the fact that 8 teams were talking to Houston.

Unless Ken Rosenthal is saying something, I don't believe it.

SJM, have been reading any of our posts? ANY of them?

If the Pence deal gets done,with or without Brown,we also need to trade RAJ for Wade.RAJ can't be that dumb to let Wade pull it off. Pence is not any better than Upton or Quentin no matter what the stats say. Ludwig/Adams is even better.

I don't understand the "win now" argument. What does hat even mean? Trading Dom for a good but not great veteran means we can win this year whereas we couldn't with the current roster? Either it's a fair deal or it isn't.

The Phillies are actually an above average offense at getting on base this season. What we miss, and what we had in abundance in recent years was power. Call me crazy, but adding the guy who is 54th in the majors in slugging AND trending downward since summer started doesn't excite me much. Certainly not enough to trade our best young talent.

What happens if we acquire another outfielder? Whoever it might be will take playing time away from Brown anyway. I voted yes. If brown lives up to 100% of his hype how much better than will he be than Pence is now?

Brown has good at bats. He fouls off a ton of pitches. But It has yet to translate into much production. Brown has played some questionable defense lately as well.

Do the deal. Give them Brown and Cosart plus another prospect and ask for one of Houston's bullpen arms as well.

Chris, if he lives up to his hype Brown will be much, much, much better than Pence.

SJM: well, over the last 4 weeks:

Dom Brown .303/.410/.379/.789
Hunter Pence .286/.351/.429/.780

Robby J,

Who plays RF if that goes down?

If they have to trade Brown, do it for a long term closer or some massive bullpen piece and OF deal. Pence is not worth it.

Heyman is a joke. He said the Mets declined an offer around Fernando Martinez form the Blue Jays for Halladay a few season back.

This guy has never once published something that has come to fruition.

I don't often put complete stock in a player saying something like this, but Aramis is pretty adament that he's not going to okay a trade. This one doesn't sound like a money play.

"Chris, if he lives up to his hype Brown will be much, much, much better than Pence."

If he lives up to his hype, Brown will be much better than god.


(...also realizing that Denard Span is lefthanded and on DL...never mind...)

"I think the surprise Rube will spring on us is Aramis for Dom Brown, Cosart and Singleton.."

The surprise would be how dumb it is. That would be the dumbest trade in a long time.

Read them all DH Phils. What's your point? I just don't agree based on what I have seen that D-Brown should not be a consideration in a trade for Pence. You all talk about Singleton and Cosart.................how many of you have even seen them play? You only know what the "organization" tells you about them.

can we get a F NO answer?

Sneed - you're right, it's not a necessary move, we don't need to settle for something that's the best of what's around if it's a marginal upgrade or questionable upgrade. It's not like he's a Holiday type addition. We are in the driver's seat of the NL and really don't have any holes other than the RH bat, but I'd be more than fine with Mayberry. We're going to win with pitching, that's where we've put our chips, so no need to deviate from that because we lost two to the Giants. The offense like any other offense has slumps, but we'll mostly be playing RH pitchers where our lefties should hit.

I'd take Pence though for Cosart and Singleton straight up but other than that, thanks for playing.

SJM: The "organization" as well as a half dozen other sources specializing in prospects & the minor leagues including Sickles, Law, Baseball America, Goldstein. . .

Why wouldn't Wade demand Brown in a trade for Pence?

And if he isn't, does that say that others in baseball aren't as convinced of Dom's future as some were a year ago?

42.28% voting "yes" is shocking. Shocking! What planet am I on? I figured there would be a few people that would be misguided enough to vote "yes", but 42.28%? That's really, really surprising.

People are really undervaluing Dom and immensely overvaluing Pence. By a lot.

denby b.: Of course Wade should be demanding Dom. If he isn't, he's foolish. But, Rube would be a bigger fool to let him go for Pence.

R.Bill- I think Will Schweitzer and Ed Wade just keep refreshing their browser and stuffing the ballot box.

Bob-- with Aramis here, does it really matter? i.e. Mayberry and Ramirez trumps Polanco and Brown.. Off topic, why the drooling over Zack Wheeler? At high Class A, in 88IP he has a 3.99 ERA, 98K and 47 WALKS.. I have to wonder what makes him such a prized prospect other than the K rate

I have faith in Rube. He won't move Dom for Pence. Pence is no Doc. Pence is no Cliff Lee. Pence is not Oswalt.

Dan in Philly: Pence CAREER (2007-Present) .290/.339/.480/.818

I have faith in Rube. He won't move Dom for Pence. Pence is no Doc. Pence is no Cliff Lee. Pence is no Oswalt.

It would be Sandberg for DeJesus all over again except Brown is considered better than Sandberg was at the time.

Rube needs to think about next year too...if you trade Brown then there's still a void in one of the corner spots. I'm pretty confident Brown stays

LOL Little Ollie......................Pence is NOT a pitcher!!

I shutter to include Singleton in the deal, much less Brown. IF we can keep Brown, get Raul off the books and have a long term OF of Dom, Vic and Pence I'd be pretty happy though. (assuming one of them can play LF).

"I totally realize that everyone in baseball is in love with Brown but so far, I see what I see. A .250 hitter with 5 HR's and 18 RBI's during an extended stretch of playing time"

Quite honestly, I see the same thing -- although I would have used different stats to make my case. I don't know that I would trade him for Hunter Pence; I lean toward no, simply because of the future salary ramifications & our many off-season vacancies that will need to be filled. But I don't quite get the "Hell no" attitude, for a guy who hasn't shown much aptitude for anything except fouling pitches off & drawing walks. Perhaps he'll eventually improve at the actual skill of hitting . . . or perhaps he'll turn into Lastings Milledge or Jeremy Hermida, who were also can't-miss prospects. Or perhaps the most likely scenario of all is that he will eventually be good but it will take 4 or 5 years to do so like, say, Alex Gordon.

Whether or not to trade him for Pence is a close call on which reasonable minds can disagree. But I don't quite understand the adamancy of some of those who are against the deal. If some posters are guilty of overrating Hunter Pence, many more are guilty of overestimating the likelihood that Domonic Brown will turn into a good player, and underestimating the time frame it may take for that to happen, if it happens at all.

Still hope the Braves ending up paying the king's ransom for Pence instead to empty out of the their top talent instead. Suck up some of their limited payroll on a complementary piece while hopefully taking a few of their stud prospects. Braves have a really nice young core already at the MLB level, almost no bad contract going ahead forward for the long-term, and a couple of guys in their minors poised to really

Wow, I don't get most of you. If you wouldn't do Brown and one of the prospects for Pence then you believe our lineup is good enough to win the WS and if that's the case you guys are sadly mistaken.

If this trade doesn't happen and we don't win it all, I'd like to hear your reasons.

The audience coming in from CSNPhilly has made the voting much tighter. Before the link went up on CSNPhilly, readers were 80-20 against trading Brown.

mlbtr says Astros are lowering their price on michael bourn - if you can keep all your top prospects and get Bourne to play CF and move Vic to RF, then hope DOM takes over in LF.

You can bat bourne in the top, either 1st or 2nd - then keep Vic in the 5 hole(he's mashing LHP this year) and Polly down in the 7hole where he belongs - thats a nice lineup.

Bourne's got a .367 OBP with 39 SB already. CF/RF defense would be the best in the bigs.

He's cheaper in trade value, in salary, and gives you another year in 2012.

I'll repeat myself. Wit or witout Pence, Dom Brown will be the best hitter on this team by 2013.

Also, re: the Pence stats above. Those are true but we should see an uptick given the better lineup and better ballpark. His CBP split stats aren't very pretty but its a small sample size.

Well said bay_area_phan!!

When I look at Dom right now, I also see a .250 with 5 HRs and 18 RBI. So what?

I get what you're saying, BAP (and others) that we could be overvaluing Dom as well. But that's the problem with trading prospects. If Dom was in A ball, I'd be more willing to let him go because his chances of making the Big Club are a lot smaller. Right now, his chances of making the Big Club are 100%. A highly touted prospect that has shown the ability to play in MLB (albeit not up to what his ceiling is projected to be), is more valuable to me than a few prospects in A ball. It is also more valuable to me than a guy who may not be as good and will make close to 20x what Brown makes next year.

Beerleaguer intelligence >>>>>>>>>> CSNPhilly viewer intelligence

Bourn bats left.

J. Weitzel: The audience coming in from CSNPhilly has made the voting much tighter. Before the link went up on CSNPhilly, readers were 80-20 against trading Brown.

Further proof the average Philly fan is clueless.

Where's clout to settle this and put us all in our place?

BAP: I voted no for the poll. My reasoning is that I'm very impressed with Brown's minor league numbers, and it leads me to believe he will be a success in the majors. Obviously, he hasn't put it together in the majors yet, but the keyword here is YET.

We aren't talking about if Raul Ibanez can revive his career, we are talking about a kid who hasn't reached his full potential yet. I also think the recovering hand injury could be sapping some of his ability as it has with players with similar injuries.

bap, I don't want to trade Brown for Pence because I don't think Pence is that good. Brown may be anything from Jeremy Hermida (Good downside comp, BTW) to a 20-25 HR/year Darryl Strawberry. Pence is Jayson Werth-lite.

lorecore: We already have 4 left-handers in our starting lineup -- 3 of whom can't hit LHP. Bourn would make that 5 and 4.

Here's what I want:

Houston:
Pence, Melacon, Myers

for

Phils:
Sardinha, Francisco, Singleton and Baez

Do we have a deal?

Yeah, no thanks to Bourn...I still think Upton give you the best case scenario

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