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Thursday, July 21, 2011

Comments

Mistake not bringing up Grilli and not releasing stiff Baez.

Dom Brown + for Pence?

repost - as it went from offTopic to onTopic:

Its hard to be 'upset' that the Phils loss Grili to an opt-out clause, but its pretty frustrating when you think of the circumstances.

The Phils took a flier on a seemingly washed up veteran just in case he had success AND they suffered injuries in their bullpen.

Well...Grili was in the 90s and posted a sub 2era for over three months of AAA while Phils have Carpenter/Mathieson/Herndon all filling in roles because of bullpen injuries.

I doubt Grili will be a difference maker in the Pirates pen, but he looks to have a good chance to effectively eat innings at the very least. Just that fact should have been worth a call up by the Phils, and then you at least take a shot at him pulling a Juan Perez for a few weeks and maybe even longer.

They made a longshot low risk bet, and won...but then decided to just lose anyway.

If the biggest mistake they make is not bringing up Jason Grilli, I think they're going to be just fine.

But yeah, I'd release Baez and give him a gold watch for his performance in the 19-inning game. Thanks for the memories, Danys.

If the names exchanged for Pence are legit than the Phillies are paying way too expensive a price for the guy.

I still think the best move is trying to get Melky and Nunez since they are team controlled through next season and probably won't require us to blow up the farm system.

An outfield of Melky, Vic, Brown would be pretty good next year and Nunez (along with the hopefully still progressing Stutes and Bastardo) would help cushion the probable loss of Madson in the off-season.

Rube just loves getting team control - whether its over the hill veterans getting extra years or trade candidates with arb eligibilty

Melky is having a bigger fluke season than Pence.

OPS+: 95, 88, 68, 93, 81, 119.

Which of these numbers tands out to you as a fluke?

I wouldn't like to see them deal Brown or Mayberry, but any combination of Singleton plus two prospects would be just fine with me. Perhaps we could unload Francisco or one of the "restock the farm" Seattle prospects.

Considering their frequent dealings with Houston, I'd bet that a Pence deal gets done.

What about a 3 team trade? Apparently Seattle like Singleton, so we trade Singleton to Seattle, Houston trades us Pence and Houston gets a prospect or 2 or 3 from Seattle

b_a_p nails it with the concerns about 3B; Polly's fading and no one's out there to help. Geesh.

I loved a "theory" I read here a while back about trying Mayberry at 3rd. His quickness and athleticism might make that a really useful winter ball project. As my late Daddy useta' say "Hindsight is 20/20".

If Worley beats Lincecum in his next slated start in commanding fashion I'd say he's close to being the front runner for ROY.

I would love to get a 3B, actually. I think Polanco's days as an above-average player are gone, whether due to health, performance, or a combination of the two. I have a feeling that Polanco next year is going to be Ibanez this year.

But for right now, you just gotta hope he's healthy and can play good defense. And hit him at the bottom of the lineup, not in the 2-hole.

But is Mayberry too tall for third. . . .

Jack: It could be a fluke, or it could be a 26 year old starting to come into full development. The often stated rule of scouts is 27 is usually when a hitter puts it together totally and 27-32 is widely considered to be the peak of someones career.

3B is no longer a concern as MM has shown he is destined for greatness!!

Jack: Cabrera's increase in OPS is largely driven by an increase in power numbers (both doubles & homeruns). Bloop hits don't turn into homeruns and they usually don't turn into doubles. It's entirely possible that Cabrera has just had an anomalous half season but, given his age, physical tools, and the types of hits he has been getting, I would tend to interpret his 2011 numbers as the product of genuine improvement.

Apparantly there's a lot of talk on WIP about Worley for Pence.

Do I think he's improved somewhat at age 26? Sure.

Do I think this is who he is as a player? No, I think this is as good as he gets, and I think he's a little worse than this going forward. Further, I think his skillset (low-walk, mediocre power) doesn't make him a great fit for this team. I think he's a fine 4th OF on a good team. And yes, I think you have to give a *little* credence to rumors about his work ethic, inasmuch as it affects his play (which is all I care about, not the clubhouse stuff).

He'd be a marginal improvement over Raul or Brown for this season, sure. But I don't want him starting in the OF next year. And I wouldn't pay more than a B/C prospect for him.

why are you listening to WIP?

Worley for Pence would be a mistake.

Old Phan: For which team?

Straight-up, that would be an absolutely incredible deal for the Phillies.

Man, that really stinks to either be producing as a young talent in the minors or majors on a championship team and a likely reward for your impressive performance is to rot in the likes of Houston or some other club paralyzed by losing and financial decay.

"Thanks man, love what you did, you're futures very bright, now pack your bags and get ready for long toss with Bud Norris"

Buster_ESPN Buster Olney
Source: The Phillies would prefer to structure any of their Hunter Pence offers around Vance Worley..

Jack: If he is developing a little more power right now then I think he'd be fine in CBP. It's hard to say.

My thinking on him over the deal for Pence is more from my belief that we are mortgaging too much of the future for Pence. I know the time is now, but I still adhere to the idea that I want the window open for a while and at some point that is going to require bringing up guys from the farm.

Old Phan: like trading away Happ was a mistake?

Emmett - I posted the same sentiments on the last thread. They must feel like cannon fodder.

TTI: Brown is here now and the bullpen will have Stutes & Bastardo in it for years at low $ with Schwimmer, Aumont, & Herndon possibilities as well.

Worley for Pence? No. Pence has that "Werthian" feel to me. Lightning in a bottle; a big season when demand is up for OF, then oblivion.

Pitching, pitching, pitching (and defense) wins championships. Worley is cheap, under control and hopefully effective for many years to come on a team that desperately needs to get younger.

Heck, let’s hang on to both Worley and KK. It’s worked OK so far. As denny b. says, if the LH bats pick it up, who needs another bat? Now, on the other hand, if we have a shot at a good young 3rd baseman (???)...

If Worley is the key name in a Pence deal I'll drive the Vanimal to the airport myself.

Am I the only one who loves a trade right now of Worley? With the current position the Phils are in, it's the perfect time to leverage the early season successes and get RH OF Bat or closer-level RP and hope Oswalt gets back into form, to be able to pitch Game 4 of the NCLS & WS.

They are going to make the playoffs. Worley does very little to help you win a WS once you're there. This year and/or next.

I should clarify- I think giving up Singleton AND Cosart AND Mayberry AND De Fratus is a bad deal.

3 of the 4 isn't too bad. All four is pretty rough.

Also- I wouldn't put stock in anything Buster Oleny says. He is the worst of the national baseball guys and usually just tries to create rumors.

TTI: I'm with you on not mortgaging the future, for sure. I'm one of the strongest advocates of developing our farm system and actually keeping our young guys on here.

But Melky Cabrera kind of sucks (he was released by the Braves last year... come on), and if they're going to make a move, I'd prefer it be for a real impact guy, even if that means giving up some more.

Jack, we would have to see what else the Phils have to give up. Also, I know Oswalt says he's feeling better (Blanton is another story...will we ever see him again?), but I'd like to see how he is before you start giving up pitching right now. Then again, I don't think the Phils are as desperate for a bat as other people think.

Wonder if RAJ also asked KC about Soria. C

"Old Phan: like trading away Happ was a mistake?

Posted by: Jbird | Thursday, July 21, 2011 at 12:26 PM

Was it?

TTI: FWIW, I wouldn't do the proposed 4-player deal either. Singleton and Cosart plus two other useful guys is too much, for me.

One of them, plus Worley and another prospect would be just fine for me. But I doubt the Astros would do that.

Old Phan: No, it wasn't. Just like trading Worley at the peak of his value wouldn't be a mistake either.

It wouldn't be the end of the world as we know it if Worley got traded. I would just like to know that Oswalt is coming back healthy and effective. If that's the case, fine. If not, I'd rather keep him at least for this season.

Trading Worley this time would be a mistake. When they traded for Oswalt last year, they still had a healthy Blanton (with no real concern that he couldn't stay healthy) and KK in the rotation. This year, Oswalt AND Blanton are both question marks for this year and neither may give us much next year (Oswalt may be gone and who know what we'll get from Blanton). Beyond the big three, if you lost Worley, you have almost zero pitching depth.

I don't the Phillies are foolish enough to put themselves in that position.

And I make the above argument assuming that Worley is noting more than a pretty good 5th starter for this year and next. He still has lots of value tot his team, even in that role.

Jack -- Released? DFA'd? Wow. Just took a peek at B-R. Too true.

Why give up a lick for a question mark like that? Are we suddenly the SF Giants offense?

Please don't bring Melky Way to Philly. I beg you. He's a slob and a loser. If I'm talking to KC I'm talking Alex Gordon, otherwise don't waste my time.

Let's not lower our standards, Rube, we're the Phillies remember. Ah that feels good to say.

If you can't get Kemp for whatever is lying around, and I mean whatever they want in a basket full of prospects discounting Stutes and Bastardo, then inquire only about Pence and Beltran.

As long as a Pence trade does not include Dom and only includes one of either Cosart and Singleton, I'm fine with it.

I'm only giving 2 prospects for Beltran, max. And preferably not Cosart.

Old Phan: Yeah, for sure, I would feel a lot better about it if I knew Oswalt was coming back healthy and effective.

But the way I look at it, this team is as close to guaranteed a playoff spot as you can be in late July (though obviously not 100% assured of one). Worley might help us get from 97 to 100 wins, but who cares about that? He's likely not going to start in October, while Pence would be an upgrade in the starting OF for the rest of this season, October, and the next year afterwards.

JW sold me on Melky.
He can be acquired cheaply, provides a little bit of immediate improvement, and is low risk/high reward to find out if he has indeed turned the corner on his career.

If Worley is traded and Oswalt doesn't come back or gets injured again ... who do we trot out there for our 4 and 5? KK and Danyz?

Bonehead - that's exactly the type of player Cholly doesn't want. We have plenty of that. If it's not Beltran or Pence, don't even bother.

"Chance of 'Melk-Man' in a Phils' uniform this season: 0%"

OP- I don't think the Phils need a bat, and in that sense they are not 'desperate' for one. But Rube wants what he wants, and when there are 10 different reports about him inquiring about OFs, that's probably what he's going to go after. I don't think the team in itself is desperate for anything, but it looks like Rube wants to go all-in this year.

Melky just didn't fit Amaro's strategy:

- Veteran Players
- Guys who play hard & have good work ethic
- Guys are good teammates and get along well with their manager

- 'Go Big or Go Home'

MG- agree 100%. I don't think there's a chance in hell he goes after Melky. Just blowing smoke.

Iceman, another thing Rube may be going after with Pence is not just to upgrade the team this year, but to have a solution in place for the vacant OF spot for next year.

The team is not in desperate need for an OF for this season, but they will be desperate to fill the LF vacancy after this year, so if you can take care of both 'needs', why not?

Not saying I'm totally for one or the other strategy, but I can see the FO thinking in that regard.

"If Worley is traded and Oswalt doesn't come back or gets injured again ... who do we trot out there for our 4 and 5?"

Solution: Worley and prospects for Pence and Happ.

Bed Beard - Pretty sure Soria has Philly on teams he doesn't want to play for

3r0ck -- Total nightmare scenerio you've oulined. As gritty as Mr. "Drop & Drive" Oswalt (HOFer Conlin's words, not mine) is, I just don't see how Oswalt comes up with an effort like Worley did yesterday.

Any 3rd baseman out there on the scrap heap (besides Pedro Feliz)?

"Bed Beard - Pretty sure Soria has Philly on teams he doesn't want to play for"

I think his list was recently adjusted and/or, that really means "list of teams he needs to be compensated by to agree to be dealt to". Much like Oswalt.

J-Bird~ I'm not listening to WIP. I'm in Richmond. A friend of mine in the Philly area is listening and relayed it to me.

Personally, if I could get Pence, I'd do it.

Fata- I do agree with you there. If it's a trade for a guy that will fit in with the team going forward, then I can get on board with it.

And to be honest, my thinking is that the way this team is now operating- signing big FA and acquiring key pieces to the team through trades, like the Yankees and Red Sox- they can afford to give away prospects in the low minors as long as the guy they get in return is worth it. I would trade everyone in our farm system for a guy like Kemp.

I'm just not sure Pence would be a guy that can so significantly contribute to the team's success in the immediate that it's worth trading the farm. If he was worth it, I'd say everyone is on the table except Brown. But I'm just not sure.

Good thing it's Houston, and we ended up talking them down on the Oswalt deal last year. Hopefully Rube can do the same thing with Pence.

cut, Roy Oswalt, just last year alone, threw 2 complete game shutouts, and IS a borderline Hall of Famer.

I think he could replicate Worley's effort from yesterday.

Seriously people, Worley looks like he has some real talent and mound presence, and will probably stick at the major league level, but let's not go too crazy over the kid. He'll probably be a good back end starter for this team, but he'll never be a Roy Oswalt type pitcher.

I'd like to hear Cholly's/FO opinion on Melky's upside. He can be acquired and retained cheaply. Phils clubhouse maybe can control work ethic/personality flaws.
Whereas, IMO, Pence is a bit overvalued because of his 3 months of all-star-caliber play.

Worley is one of those pitchers who has great value while they are cost controlled. Pence is still more valuable.

There is an assumption here that the Phils will only need 3 starters in the NLDS. Obviously, if they sweep again this year, that will be the case. But I think people are a little confused with how last year worked. I far as I remember, since the Phils had the best record in the NL, they got to choose what schedule to go with, and chose the one that had extra days so they could go with 3 starters instead of 4. But that doesn't mean they will have the same benefit this year for two reasons:

1. I don't know whether the best record in the NL gets the same choice this year. For all I know, an AL team may get that choice this year or such a choice may not exist for any team.

2. Even if the Phils have the choice to pick their own schedule, I think they may pick the shorter schedule and force their opponent to use a 4th starter against Oswalt or Worley. Let's say the Phils are playing the Giants in the 1st round. Bigger mismatch is certainly Oswalt vs. Bumgartner rather than getting Lee or Hamels versus Cain a second time in game 5, right?

This is all to say that we should not discount the value of a 4th starter in the playoffs. Going 4 deep is a huge chess piece.

Spitz, completely agree with your last line.

Fata -- Late in the 2010 regular season, Lee was really scuffling with a sore back. Like an idiot, I declared that he looked like a "shot pitcher". Not.

Bochy B.S. aside, Clifton's pretty good right now, and his back seems fine. I'm also sure that he was thoroughly scrutinized by the Phils before that big contract.

Oswalt's a different story. He's got structural back damage (bulging disks). The only sure-fire cure for that is surgery, no? And even then, that's a crap shoot. How can Oswalt be counted on to contribute through the playoffs?

Give me Vance, and KK. Two guys who have shown they win at the ML level. If they need a 4th starter and Vance continues to show shut down stuff, he's your 4th starter in the playoffs. Counting on rookies sure as he!! worked for the '80 Phils (Walk, Bystrom).

Spitz -- I think the top team from each league got to make that choice last year.

Joe Blanton isn't walking through that door. We need to keep another pitcher around in case Oswalt or someone else goes down.

I'd rather trade Worley than Cosart or Singleton BUT:

The Phils need a 4th starter, how can they hurt the MLB team right now? Would they now be in the market for a back of rotation starter?

Is Oswalt/Blanton ready to be healthy sooner/more certain then we think?

cut, Oswalt responded with no pain after his last bullpen session. He throws another tomorrow and will start a rehab stint soon thereafter.

Let's wait until he comes back before we dub his career over. If he can pitch without pain, he's still Roy Oswalt, and Roy Oswalt is 10 times better than Vance Worley. He just is.

From what I read Oswalt is epected back in early August, so he's only a couple weeks away.

It is time for Phillie fans to grow up. Small market teams are the ones singing "It's now or never." People, including sports writers, are so afraid of the age of Jimmie, Chase and Howard. The greatest accomplishment of Pat Gillick isn't on the field. It is the establishment of a business model that can support the payroll of the Phillies, year after year.

The Phils have a capability restricted to a very few teams. They can spend the money. They have big dollars allocated to prime players. Between a couple of pitchers and the infield they have a payroll larger than most other teams altogether. They have committed the money and can buy free agents instead of renting for the moment. They also don't have to overpay (see Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand, Jason Werth.)

Hence there is no need to mortgage future players for possible incremental improvement now. Is Pence really that much better than Dom Brown? And just what do you do with Brown if Pence is here? Also farm hands brought up to the bigs greatly improve team profitability, the other goal of management, besides winning the World Series.

The Phillies greatest needs over the next couple of years are third base, catcher and to get younger. Pence is younger than Raul. That's all that recommends him based on team need.

He is due a big raise in arbitration, up to about $10 million. So is Bourne, maybe not quite as big, but huge compared to the Astros' median salary of $467K. The Astros can't afford him! There are lots of have nots in the same boat. Roob should do what the Yankees and Red Sox do, wait until he's non tendered and pick him up.

"The greatest accomplishment of Pat Gillick isn't on the field. It is the establishment of a business model that can support the payroll of the Phillies, year after year."

Come again? What did Gillick have anything to do with this?

In the playoffs in 1980, Walk and Bystrom gave up 10 earned runs in 17.1 innings. It probably beat giving Randy Lerch starts though.

templin: "And just what do you do with Brown if Pence is here?"

Start him in LF.

"Roob should do what the Yankees and Red Sox do, wait until he's non tendered and pick him up"

So the Yanks and Sox are good because they wait around and sign non-tendered players? News to me.

templin: "And just what do you do with Brown if Pence is here?"

Start him in LF.

"Roob should do what the Yankees and Red Sox do, wait until he's non tendered and pick him up"

So the Yanks and Sox are good because they wait around and sign non-tendered players? News to me.

Fata -- If Roy Oswalt comes back with an 89 mph fastball and no 12-6 curve, it's my guess that he's not the pitcher he was last year during that brilliant stretch drive, and Worley's the better bet. On the other hand, if Little Roy can reach back and hit 95+ again; with the illusion that his heater is climbing through the strike zone, all bets are off.

Sorry for the numerous Conlin references (he's clearly my hero), but Big HOF Bill declared a few weeks ago that Roy's tank is empty; no one can be a full-blown power pitcher with a seriously injured back.

Throwing without pain is 1 thing. Throwing that vicious 96 mph fastball on the hands, then freezing/ringing up said hapless victim with a 12-6 yakker is another. Problem is, we won't know for sure until after the deadline which Little Roy shows up.

I work in Houston. Hunter Pence is the real deal. He's not "Werthian". Hunter comes to every game ready to play. He hustles and is a good hitter. Philly fans would love Hunter wearing the bloodstripes. If Wade trades Hunter, the Houston fans (all tweve of them) would run Wade out of town.

RAJ frequently (but not always) pulls off trades that are unexpected.

I wonder if he's really talking to KC about Joakim Soria, and Melky is the throw-in?

Soria seems to have straightened himslef out after early season struggles, and since June 1st has a 0.47 ERA, 0.737 WHIP, .176/.200/.221 against, although with an unusually low .212 BAbip, and a 7.5/1 K/BB.

If RAJ could magically pry Soria away, it would, as JW says in the thread head, give them insurance from losing Madson.

Who would they have to give up in a package to get Soria? Stutes? Worley?

Any interest in an old Beerleaguer 'Person of Interest' Ty Wigginton?

.257/.316/.471 with 13 home runs who can play 3B at least capably and give them some pop off the bench as a right-handed bat.

MG: I like the Wigginton idea.

It's really weird to be saying this, but I feel like, based on the track record of recent years, the Phils are going to make the right move.

For all of you guys and gals discussing potential trades, name these two 2011 players (I'll provide context later):


Player #1: 273 PA, .225/.319/.396

Player #2: 186 PA, .247/.339/.395

MG -- Forgot about Wigginton. With a fragile Polanco, what a pickup that would be.

Problem is, Colorado knows we're probably drooling over able-bodied 3B right now. I wonder what they'd want?

The notion that Worley might be untouchable is wild. He's having a great run, but the league will catch up to him, and his luck will return to normal. Every scouting report has him maxed out as a #4 starter, and even if they are undershooting that a bit, Pence will offer more value than Worley, this year and beyond. If they can fool Ed Wade into accepting him as the centerpiece of a Pence deal, they should pull the trigger immediately. I would take my chances with Blanton or Oswalt in the playoffs, knowing that the OF would likely be Pence / Victorino / Brown, with Raul lurking as a DH in AL parks.

Wigginton could probably be a waiver wire deal, no?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-phillies-other-guys/

good, and rare fangraphs article on the phils.

Pence - yes. no, he's not Ted Williams but he is a very good baseball player. probably not as good with the bat as Beltran, but makes up for it with the rest of his game. and he's reasonably cost controlled beyond this year.

if we could get him for Worley plus, i'm all in there. we can figure out who is the #4 and #5 starters later.

brad, the point is, if Worley is gone, and Oswalt is gone next year, and Blanton (can you trust Blanton to give you anything)...who the hell is going to make those 33 starts a year?

"And just what do you do with Brown if Pence is here?"

Have 1 play LF and 1 play RF? You're asking like that's a real tough question.

saw this comment on the fangraphs thread linked above:

Bastardo has allowed 3.2 H/9

3.2!

MLB record for 50+ IP –> juiced-out-of-his-mind Eric Gagne (4.04) in 2003.


Am I the only one that thinks if we get Beltran he'll get hurt almost immediately? The guy is made of china or something.

"brad, the point is, if Worley is gone, and Oswalt is gone next year, and Blanton (can you trust Blanton to give you anything)...who the hell is going to make those 33 starts a year?"

More to the point, who is going to make those starts for us this year? Blanton isn't coming back soon, Oswalt isn't coming back soon, so who is pitching every 5th day? Carpenter?

"And just what do you do with Brown if Pence is here?"

Well, the rational thing to do would be to put Brown in LF and put Ibanez on the bench. In reality, Brown will go to the bench and they will continue to run Ibanez out there no matter what.

That's the problem with this whole thing, if you ask me. Ibanez isn't going anywhere this season, and he's a real drain on the middle of this lineup (as well as slow on the bases and poor defensively).

DPatrone,

I am also a Richmond Phillies fan.

We need to lock down a Phillies sports bar down here and create a new "South Philly"

FRBChecker@aol.com if you want to start building a crew.

awh: Player 1 is Jason Heyward, and Player 2 is Dom Brown.

"who can play 3B at least capably"

and that resembles Wigginton how?

If we trade away Dom for a 1/2 or 1 1/2 year player, we'll regret it, tremendously.

Haha I see so many people running templin outta here already

Missed this in the last thread: "I would be concerned if the Braves or Giants added Pence or Beltran."

I guess being 'concerned' is the new 'They're scary!'

"I feel like, based on the track record of recent years, the Phils are going to make the right move."

You're no fun.

Iceman: I know you're just commenting on a BL meme, but I assume it would concern you as well if one of the teams we are most likely to play in the NLCS picked up the best hitter on the market, right?

Hmmmmm.

Hunter Pence career BABIP: .327
Hunter Pence 2011 BABIP: .378

Someone's due for a regression to the norm...

Jack, correct!

So, the context of my asking the question about the two mystery players is this:

The Braves are said to be in a market for a bat. Would/should they consider trading Heyward in order to get that bat, as some here have suggested trading Brown?

Yes, Heyward is 'projected' to be a better player than Brown, but why would any team trade away young cost controlled talent to get a rent-a-player like Beltran or a semi-rent-a-player like Pence?

If Brown develops as he's project to develop, in a couple years he 'is' Pence, and cost controlled at that.

I'm not taking the position that they don't try to make a trade for an OF bat. I'm maintaining that they shouldn't give up Brown to do it.

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