Pence deal to Phils thought to have fallen through?

It's been the busiest day of the trade season so far. Here's what's happening and how it impacts the Phillies.

A pair of front office sources, unaffiliated to the Phillies or Astros, told Jayson Stark and ESPN that they believed the Phillies "had a deal for him (Hunter Pence)" earlier in the week, only to have Houston "back off." The deal, according to Stark's sources, was to include Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart. According to reports, the Astros are seeking a large haul for Pence, with more "sure things" added to the mix.

While Pence appears to be out, Stark's colleague, Buster Olney, tweeted that the Phils continue to look into White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin. The Phils' renewed interest in Quentin was reported by USA Today yesterday. With Carlos Beltran off the board, several teams, including the rival Braves, could turn to Quentin or Oakland outfielder Josh Willingham. According to FoxSports, the Giants' tentative deal for Beltran includes top pitching prospect Zach Wheeler heading to New York.

Reader reaction to Quentin rumor: "I'd rather have Quentin than Pence. His price would be lower than Pence's. Sure, he's a bad fielder, but a bad corner OF will do less damage at CBP than just about any park in baseball. And the guy will end up with 30-35 HRs this season. I like him better than Ryan Ludwick. One caveat: He's a much better hitter vs. RHP. Career .857 OPS. He's under .800 vs. LHP." - clout

Tonight's Lineup: Rollins SS, Martinez 3B, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Victorino CF, Ibanez LF, Brown RF, Ruiz C, Hamels P.

Comments

[Spitz]

Call me crazy, but I'm not sure this Beltran deal is done. He's a free agent to be - it seems like he'd be well served to play his home games at CBP hitting behind Utley and Howard rather than play his home games at AT&T hitting between Panda and Schierholtz. In the end, Beltran (and Boras) can force the Mets hand since he is a 10/5 guy.

[MG]

Guess they are scoring runs so Mini Mart stays in the 2-hole. Oh well.

[Slocs]

The pace has quickened in the Padres' talks about relievers Heath Bell and Mike Adams.#trades

Sounds like Rube getting aggressive

[clout]

As I said in the last thread, I'd rather have Quentin. His price would be lower than Pence's. Sure, he's a bad fielder, but a bad corner OF will do less damage at CBP than just about any park in baseball. And the guy will end up with 30-35 HRs this season. I like him better than Ryan Ludwick.

One caveat: He's a MUCH better hitter vs. RHP. Career .857 OPS. He's under .800 vs. LHP.

[Dan in Philly]

We should so trade Domonic Brown for Pence...

July OPS .753 (Pence) .810 (Brown) BABIP regression is a real witch, isn't it?

[Get Rube A Beer]

I can't see the Sox trading Quentin being only 4.5 games (Soon to be 3.5 if they win toda) out of 1st place in the trickiest division in baseball

[The Truth Injection]

Good trade for the Giants and they paid a steep price to do it. They had a hole they felt needed to be filled and they did it. Can't fault a team for that.

I think someone like Quentin comes cheaper than Pence at this point and I like the point that clout made. Even a butcher of a corner outfielder can be okay in CBP because of how it is laid out. Even Ibanez- who I know everyone likes to claim was a butcher- did fine in the outfield. Not great, nor perfect, but he was far from embarrassing out there.

One thing- can we stop acting like the Giants were that much better than us in the playoffs. I saw people mentioning again about the home run advantage they had. It was 4-3. All the home runs in the series were solo shots except for the 2 run home run Werth hit in Game 1. That series was extremely evenly matched with the ERA's, batting average, and home runs being close. A few breaks and the series switches our direction. We were beat- no doubt- but it wasn't the drubbing that people like to portray it as.

[Heather]

"Not great, nor perfect, but he was far from embarrassing out there."

When I checked a few weeks ago, Ibanez had the lowest UZR scores for a full-time LF. If that doesn't qualify as embarrassing, what does?

[Dan in Philly]

UZR - Unreliable Zone Rating

[Lake Fred]

I hate trade speculations. My gut says that Pence and Adams end up in Philly. My brain says, "Who knows??!!"

[Heather]

Just checked Fangraphs and Ibanez's UZR/150 is a staggeringly bad -31.4. His closest competition is Juan Pierre at -15.4.

UZR isn't extremely reliable over small sample sizes.

But yeah. Even if his UZR improves markedly, he's still the worst qualified LF in baseball by a long shot.

[aksmith]

People are also forgetting that Doc was pitching with a pulled groin against the Giants. That probably made just a small difference.

It's all about who his hot and who is healthy during the playoffs. Beltran is a nice pickup for the Giants. Would have been nice on the Phils. But I still think that overall the Phils have enough to get by them. If they play 100 series against the Giants with the current health of both teams, I think the Phils win 51 of them. And a lot of that is because the Phils have had trouble in San Fran's park. Play on a neutral field and I think the Phils win a bit more.

But anyone can beat anyone at any time. I watched Wally Post beat Hank Aaron in an episode of Home Run Derby the other day. What were the odds against that?

[Willard Preacher]

In 96 PA's at AT&T Park, Beltran is HR-less? Interesting.

[DH Phils]

According to UZR, Quentin cost the White Sox 24 runs in the field last year, but has saved 3 runs in the field this year.

Either he practiced his ass off in the offseason or UZR is useless.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Beltran will be a coup for the Giants when/ if he says yes. Did that happen yet?

I think we have to give Raold a pass on his defense for a day after that game last night. Then, back to reality. Although, I'll say that he seems to be playing within himself a little more over the last month. Not playing singles into doubles lately.

[Willard Preacher]

AT&T, SBC, whatever the hell they're calling it. Still 0 HR in 22 games there.

[Heather]

"And a lot of that is because the Phils have had trouble in San Fran's park. Play on a neutral field and I think the Phils win a bit more. "

They're terrible in San Fran because they look at the park's huge dimensions and instead of saying, "Gee, this is the kind of park where I just want to put the ball in play and try to line drive it for an XBH," certain members of our team adopt a positively Ruthian uppercut swing in an attempt to hit a HR...which usually results in a lot of harmless fly balls.

But, I'm starting to sound like Mike Schmidt here and just ranting, so I'll stop.

[Jack]

akmith: Except for that we won the only game where Doc was pitching with a pulled groin. So I don't see how it made a difference.

[Jack]

"They're terrible in San Fran because they look at the park's huge dimensions and instead of saying, "Gee, this is the kind of park where I just want to put the ball in play and try to line drive it for an XBH," certain members of our team adopt a positively Ruthian uppercut swing in an attempt to hit a HR...which usually results in a lot of harmless fly balls."

Amazing that Heather has the ability to look into the Phillies' minds when they take the field and know exactly what they're thinking when they start playing a game.

Heather, what is Chase Utley thinking ... right NOW. Go.

[The Truth Injection]

Dan: exactly.

Heather: UZR is an imperfect stat. When we signed Ibanez it was stated over and over again that he was a butcher in left field. In three seasons here he has committed 16 errors in 587 chances. There are some little things he has lost the skill to do (his arm strength is down significantly per the scouting reports) but he is not costing us games out there.

[aksmith]

Jack - Didn't he have the injury in game one and exacerbate it? I don't think it happened between starts.

[Heather]

"Heather: UZR is an imperfect stat. When we signed Ibanez it was stated over and over again that he was a butcher in left field. In three seasons here he has committed 16 errors in 587 chances. There are some little things he has lost the skill to do (his arm strength is down significantly per the scouting reports) but he is not costing us games out there."

It was stated he was a butcher in LF and UZR agrees. How can you not then extrapolate that to, "His defense loses us games?"

So he's a butcher in LF, scouts agree, UZR agrees, but he's not costing us games?

That's an interesting logical leap.

[The_GodfatherSJP]

Erm, UZR is useless. In 2009 it had Raul Ibanez as a great fielder.

Actually, it's useless if it's the only measurement you use for defense. You have to judge it along side other metrics. It's like saying ERA is the only stat you should use to evaluate pitchers.

As for Quentin vs. Pence, the money situation is the same: both are under team control for 2012 but there is arbitration. Both are the same age. Both have similar offensive stats (career) in OPS+. But Pence is a much better fielder.

However, with Brown in RF, Quentin would make a decent LF bat to hit behind Howard and Utley. Problem is I don't see Kenny Williams trading away his best bat after Paul Konerko. He'd be throwing in the towel on 2011 even though he's just 4.5 games out of first place in a very weak division. The White Sox have good pitching, best in their division, but they have no offense. With another bat, they might get enough offense to make a run and make the playoffs.

If they unload Quentin, it's the start of a firesale.

[aksmith]

Chase Utley is currently thinking he still can't catch his breath from that inside the parker.

[Heather]

"Amazing that Heather has the ability to look into the Phillies' minds when they take the field and know exactly what they're thinking when they start playing a game. "

It's a conjecture. One that happens to also match with what I see.

Do you need me to start calling you out on all your posts that engage in conjecture, hyperbole, or exaggeration? This thread will balloon to over 1000 posts.

[Jack]

TTI: You cannot possibly be citing OF errors as a metric of someone's defense.

Errors are an awful way to judge defense anywhere, but particularly in the OF. Do you know how hard it is to make an error in the OF?

Outfield defense is measured by balls that you track down and catch and/or keep in front of you, and to a much lesser extent, runners that you can keep from advancing with your arm. By those measures, Raul is very bad at it, and I don't see any scouts or fans that disagree with the assessment.

[Heather]

"Erm, UZR is useless. In 2009 it had Raul Ibanez as a great fielder.

Actually, it's useless if it's the only measurement you use for defense. You have to judge it along side other metrics. It's like saying ERA is the only stat you should use to evaluate pitchers."

Yes...and over the last three years, pretty much every defensive stat agrees that Ibanez is next to useless in LF.

Can we agree on that?

Here ya go, Ibanez's fielding value page:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=607&position=OF#fielding

Taken as an aggregate, the stats say over the last 3 years, Ibanez is a miserable defender. And that miserable defense is costing us runs. Might it be possible his offense is making up for them? You could certainly make that argument. But to say he's anything less than awful out there is stretching the truth.

[Dickie Thon]

Who is pitching for the Giants tonight? Cain or Panama Red?

[The Truth Injection]

Heather: Do you actually watch games or do you just recite numbers that other people cobble together? How many times do you recall seeing Ibanez completely overmatched out there in left field? There's maybe a handful of times where he misplayed something into a run.

Also dummy- I'm not the one who ever claimed he was a butcher in left field. I said all along that he would be helped by moving from Safeco to CBP whose dimensions would be more suited towards someone like him who is an imperfect defensive player.

[Busters]

Who is this Danny Knobler of CBS Sports that reports it appears that nothing will happen with Pence now and the Astros will look to trade him in the offseason instead, and says the Phillies "almost certainly won't get Pence? I dont know him but I hate him already.

P.s. convenient day for the Astros to give Pence an off day

[GTown_Dave]

Ya know what I like best about Ibañez? He won't be a member of the Philadelphia Phillies in '12.

[The_GodfatherSJP]

Also, Quentin's stats are inflated away from U.S. Cellular field, arguably the most hitter friendly park in the country. Splits (AVG/OPB/SLG/OPS):
Home:
.270/.371/.536/.907
Away:
.237/.326/.449/.775

Mind you, a .775 OPS still makes him an above average hitter, and Hunter Pence has a similar split:
Home:
.298/.349/.501/.851
Away:
.281/.327/.456/.784

But this is not uncommon at all among hitters. Utley and Howard also have large OPS splits home or away. Hell, Pablo Sandoval has a bigger home/away split than Quentin.

[Get Rube A Beer]

Looks like the Pence dream is over

[Jack]

TTI: Right, it doesn't look like Ibanez did anything wrong when a ball bounces in front of him and he picks it up and throws it to 2nd and a guy is on 1st base with a singele.

Except that something like 25 other LFs in baseball would've caught the ball that dropped in front of him for an out.

[Cyclic]

Waaay too much Raul hate going on right now.

I saw him make a great catch last night. He's been playing very well offensively since his atrocious start to the season. Give the guy a break.

[curt]

"Ya know what I like best about Ibañez? He won't be a member of the Philadelphia Phillies in '12"

Probably true, but don't bet the grocery money on it.

[GTown_Dave]

He's been playing very well offensively since his atrocious start to the season. Give the guy a break.

Only at Home. Ibañez is still a sub-.200 hitter on the Road. The only break Raul ought to be given is a seat on the bench at least 50% of the time.

[MG]

TTI - Ibanez has been poor in LF and has showed little-to-no range literally or horizontally this season. Please don't try to tell me he has been an adequate defensive option in LF. He's terrible. Only reason he isn't the worst LF in the NL is because of guys like Burrell in SF and Lee in Houston.

[DH Phils]

If Danny Knobler (CBSSports.com blogger) says it, it has to be true.

[sifl]

I watch as many games as I can, and as much as I love Raul, to my eyes he looks pretty bad out there in LF. UZR backs that up. Not sure how you can employ the "Do you really watch the games?" line of attack in this case.

[Slocs]

trading Jackson was predicted by Heyman? a couple of days ago as was trading Quentin. The feeling is the Sox had 6 healthy starters and enough bats to contend and were under pressure to cut payroll. I'm not sure you can count Rios and Dunn as bats this year. Everything, I read said the sox needed relief pitching but got that from the Jays. Remember, it is unlikely the Sox would kick in cash if the need to cut payroll so maybe we could dump BenFran and prospects.

Again, makes sense to get reed Johnson as an upgrade over BenFran and a bullpen piece. Then wait and see if Houston blinks.

[Old Phan]

No, you can't judge a fielder by how many errors they make, which is why my dream infield includes Starlin Castro, Uggla and Prince Fielder.

Can't we just stipulate that there is no one perfect way to measure defense? I prefer the ol' "watch the game" method, but I guess that's antiquated.

[Sarge Rules]

Anybody else not really interested in this trade deadline stuff?

The Phils are clearly the best team in the NL. Its not even close. And when healthy with their pitching depth, they are better then Boston, the Yankees and Texas from the AL.

I really don't care what other teams do. They don't have Hamels. They don't have Halladay. And they don't have Lee. And that is all that matters.

Beltran is a nice player. He's not a great player. He's not Barry Bonds in the middle of the lineup. He is more likely to get hurt in the last 2 months then he is do great things for a less-then-formidable Giants offense.

Let em' all load up as best they can and give up a bunch of good prospects in the process. And the Phils will still be better and better in October when it matters most.

Some of you act like the Phils just "HAVE" to do something big. They don't. Unless a front-line guy goes down in the next few days, where is there really room on this roster anyway? Does Valdez need someone to talk to on the bench?

[DH Phils]

To anyone who watches the games, Raul moves towards fly balls like he's running in quicksand and often doesn't reach second base with his throws. How can anyone who watches the games say he's an average fielder?

[Slocs]

People Pence on his way!

Brian McTaggart
by 973espn
Pence not in Astros lineup http://twitpic.com/5wtity

[The Truth Injection]

Jack: No I would not use that as the sole way to outline Ibanez's prowess or lack thereof in the outfield. I would argue it is one method to use in conjunction with others. I would also argue though that UZR as a sole function of determining is poor as well. I would say this though- this season Ibanez has been weaker in left than he was in the two previous years. However, his numbers out there are so beyond absurd that they almost fall into the category of statistical anomaly. Really this is on paper his worst defensive season since 2007.

Furthermore, I think the problem is that I have a different definition of embarrassing than others. Part of that is based on the fact that people made it sound like Ibanez was going to be the clumsiest outfielder in the history of baseball. Look I'm not claiming him to be a good or great outfielder or whatever other positive adjective people read me as saying when I say, "far from embarrassing." That's just people being argumentative because Ibanez is a guy that people around here are allergic to anything that sounds remotely like a compliment. Christ- Heather makes it sound like I said he was the best defensive outfielder in Phillies history.

[Fatalotti]

thegoodphight.com stole my thunder:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/7/27/2284228/draft-stat-notes#storyjump

[Heather]

"Heather: Do you actually watch games or do you just recite numbers that other people cobble together? How many times do you recall seeing Ibanez completely overmatched out there in left field? There's maybe a handful of times where he misplayed something into a run. "

Let's see:
1. Nearly every defensive stat reveals Raul is hideous in LF
2. Numerous scouts believe Raul is hideous in LF
3. Numerous casual Phillie fans believe Raul is hideous in LF

I think the aggregate of evidence = Raul is hideous in LF.

[DH Phils]

Old Phan: The "watch the game" method is fine assuming you're able to come to a reasonably objective conclusion, and not claim any player wearing pinstripes is a good defender, regardless of how slow-footed and weak-armed he is.

[Slocs]

I wonder if Phillies leaked story that Houston backed out of the trade to embarrass Wade into a deal or if Rube stepped up with Worley.

[CJ]

I know Raul is Washed Up™, but felt is was interesting to point out his stats since May 3rd:

71 G, 285 PAs, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 279/309/498, 807 OPS

So there's that...

[Get Rube A Beer]

Slocs: He just has the night off...I wish that meant he was on his way

[GTown_Dave]

Unless a front-line guy goes down in the next few days, where is there really room on this roster anyway?

Francisco & Gload could be dropped, & Carpenter & Herndon sent back to AAA where they belong. There is an abundance of space to bring in a new bat &/or arm.

[Jack]

I watch the games, and I think Raul is terrible out there. I see a few balls a week that he doesn't get to that almost any other LF (including guys on our own roster, like Mayberry) would certainly get to.

What amazes me the most is that Ibanez doesn't get subbed for defensively in late innings when we have a lead.

[The Truth Injection]

Again people- where did I say Ibanez was a good or great outfielder or offered him super high praise. Where did I refer to him as average?

To me, horrible and embarrassing are a special category of player. Ibanez is closer to those than he is to great, but he is not quite there.

Sorry that I offended people by offering faint praise to Ibanez. Sorry that I don't think UZR is a be-all, end-all stat like some people.

[The Truth Injection]

Again people- where did I say Ibanez was a good or great outfielder or offered him super high praise. Where did I refer to him as average?

To me, horrible and embarrassing are a special category of player. Ibanez is closer to those than he is to great, but he is not quite there.

Sorry that I offended people by offering faint praise to Ibanez. Sorry that I don't think UZR is a be-all, end-all stat like some people.

DH: Yeah cause that is remotely what I believe.

Seriously people are debating this because I said he wasn't embarrassing directly after I outright stated he wasn't great or anything. I even made the counter argument against myself before I said anything.

[Dave]

I have to agree that just by the eye test Raul is a bad fielder. There are too many times where a ball off the bat looks like it should be a routine fly and easy out, but then Ibanez is nowhere to be seen and has to take the ball on a bounce. A combination of bad jumps and just being sloooowww leads to really bad range. Sure he has the occasional good play, like yesterday's play at the wall, but so does every outfielder at just about every level of baseball from college on. The rare good play doesn't make someone a good fielder.

[Old Phan]

DH, no argument there.
I would also add that you should be able to decide for yourself and not always let "conventional wisdom" cloud your judgement.

[Slocs]

Get Ruba a Beer - where did you read that? Why is Astros beat writer reporting that if nothing is up

[bay_area_phan]

"Unless a front-line guy goes down in the next few days, where is there really room on this roster anyway."

Yeah, if we acquired Carlos Quentin, what on earth would we do with Ben Francisco? If we acquired a reliever like Adams, we'd have to demote Carpenter. And if we acquired a 3rd baseman, we'd have to dump Mini-Mart or Wilson Valdez. Like it or not, the Phillies simply don't have the roster space to make a trade.

[CJ]

Raul is fine in LF. He generally catches the balls he gets to and doesn't make many mental errors. That said, he gets to fewer balls than most, if not all, LFers and can't throw a guy out from short left. But he's not in LF for his glove or his arm. He's there for the .800 OPS he's put up over his last 71 games.

Next year, we'll have a better defensive LFer. I'm not sure why there's so much belly-aching over it.

[Heather]

"Look I'm not claiming him to be a good or great outfielder or whatever other positive adjective people read me as saying when I say, "far from embarrassing." That's just people being argumentative because Ibanez is a guy that people around here are allergic to anything that sounds remotely like a compliment. Christ- Heather makes it sound like I said he was the best defensive outfielder in Phillies history."

Maybe the problem is that we have different subjective definitions of "embarrassing". I would say being one of the worst 3 LF in MLB is pretty embarrassing. Maybe to you the embarrassing threshold isn't reached until someone is historically the worst outfielder to ever play the game.

If we agree that Raul is a darn bad defender who is costing the team runs by his bad defense, then on the core issue we agree.

[DH Phils]

TTI: "How many times do you recall seeing Ibanez completely overmatched out there in left field? There's maybe a handful of times where he misplayed something into a run."

That's what I'm talking about. My answer to your rhetorical question is "pretty much every game." UZR is not part of my argument. You're arguing semantics with "horrible" and "embarrassing" - he's not as bad as Vladimir Guerrero in the World Series last year or Adam Dunn in RF in Washington but I think he's easily one of the 5 worst LF in baseball and arguably the worst.

[Ogre]

baseball NEEEEEERRRRDDDDDSSSSSSS!!!!!!

[Mike G]

If we agree that Raul is a darn bad defender who is costing the team runs by his bad defense, then on the core issue we agree.

Posted by: Heather | Wednesday, July 27, 2011 at 05:29 PM

How many runs a game is he costing?

[CJ]

Who really cares about Raul's defense? He plays LF, for crying out loud. It is far and away the least important defensive position in baseball.

What's embarrassing is his bat over his first 25 games of the year. Thankfully, he's played the bulk of the season at the offensive level he should.

[Jack]

CJ: Would you sub in Mayberry for Ibanez in the 8th inning of a playoff game when we're up 4-2, for defensive purposes?

[Get Rube A Beer]

Why is an Astros beat writer reporting that he isn't in the lineup? - Thats his job...

Until Hunter Pence is a Phillie, I'm thinking he's not a Phillie.

[Old Phan]

It is semantics, of course, but how I would define embarrassing is if he was dropping routine fly balls all the time. Not getting to a ball that others can get to just means he's slow. That may not be a wonderful trait for an outfielder, but it isn't embarrassing.

[Get Rube A Beer]

I read it on MLBtraderumors.com

All signs point to no Pence trade this year

Probably offseason

[bay_area_phan]

Raul's defense is pretty bad. Yet, out of the 6 outfielders on our roster, he, somehow or other, manages to be among the upper half when it comes to outfield defense.

[Jack]

"Thankfully, he's played the bulk of the season at the offensive level he should."

Am I the only one who doesn't think putting up a .304 OBP in the *good* part of your season (since May 1st) counts as being at the level you want a middle of the lineup hitter to be at?

His power has been nice, and useful. He hasn't been terrible, for sure. But I'm not sure I'm ready to celebrate a guy for getting on base less often than every other player on our team not named Valdez, Martinez or Schneider.

[sifl]

Shane Victorino has completely outperformed my wildest expectations for him. His OPS is 100 points above his career norms right now. His swing isn't especially pretty, and he never conveys the Utley-esque work ethic that would seemingly accompany a player improving by leaps and bounds on the wrong side of 30, but he appears to be pulling it off. His BABIP is right in line with his career norms, though (.313 this year, .302 for his career), so I'm hoping this lasts.

[Jack]

"It is semantics, of course, but how I would define embarrassing is if he was dropping routine fly balls all the time."

Then this discussion is absolutely pointless, because no one above little league drops routine fly balls all the time. Congrats guys, Ibanez is a better fielder than your local middle school JV left fielder!

[conshy matt]

proof that timing (and poster reputation) is everything:

e: Quentin

i agree that i'd prefer him to Pence (HR power is a harder skillset to acquire), but let's forget about his 2008. he is not that guy. .275 with 30 HR's sounds about right. the MVP candidate Quentin is a thing of the past. he's become a fastball hitter (cannot hit the slider per his Pitch Type values) who hits lefties much better than righties (.401 wOBA vs. .374 wOBA).

Posted by: conshy matt | Wednesday, July 27, 2011 at 01:04 PM

yet Clout gets quoted in the header.

[GTown_Dave]

... he's not in LF for his glove or his arm. He's there for the .800 OPS he's put up over his last 71 games.

You mean "the .850 OPS he has put up over his last 52 Home games". Raul's OPS in 44 Road Games this season? A lusty .555, which is Brian Schneider bad. Take Ibañez away from CBP & he's among a handful of the very worst OF in the game.

[Meyer]

Hunter and Carlos are flipping a coin as we speak to determine who will go the Phillies.

[Willard Preacher]

How I define defensively embarrassing:

Chuck Knoblauch (in his waning years)

[Willard Preacher]

"Hunter and Carlos are flipping a coin as we speak to determine who will go the Phillies."

So, you're saying no chance on Upton then? Dammit.

[Old Phan]

WP, excellent example.

[CJ]

Jack:

1) Yes, I would sub in Mayberry in the right situation. I'm also not sure LF defense late in a game has cost us yet this year. I could be wrong.

2) Raul bats 6th in the lineup. Slugging matters more there. An .800 OPS is more than acceptable. Only you can find a way to complain about an OPS+ around 120 over his last 71 games. But you're good like that.

[HammRadio]

@Gtown -- even you would argue that Raul isn't as bad as he's shown on the road and certainly not as good as he's been at home. He's home/road splits in 2010 had a gap. But this is a cavern.

Anyone have an explanation?

[Dickie Thon]

I think Rube will shock us all and swing a deal for Matt Kemp.

[Old Phan]

"Then this discussion is absolutely pointless"

Exactly.

[CJ]

GTown Dave: Plenty of players have cavernous gaps between home and road. I wonder what his road OPS is over his last 71 games. Raul was TERRIBLE everywhere over his first 25 games.

[The Truth Injection]

Last year Ibanez was middle of the pack for UZR (EVERYONE'S FAVORITE STAT) among qualified guys in left only. He was ahead of guys like Ryan Braun and Carlos Lee. In 2009 he was 5th in UZR ahead of guys like Jason Bay, Alfonso Soriano, Johnny Damon, Chase Headley, and Ryan Braun.

When you bring in all outfielders for 2010 he drops to 45 out of 61 ahead of guys like Colby Rasmus, Corey Hart, Jayson Werth, Delmon Young, and Andre Either. For 2009 he drops to 20 out of 63 ahead of guys like Matt Kemp, Ryan Ludwick, Shin-Soo Choo. This year Ibanez has been way down at the bottom of UZR for most of the year which would indicate he has slipped in his defensive abilities.

Perhaps we need a Beerleaguer translator so I know what word to use instead of fine so people don't get their panties in a bunch.

Furthermore, this stupid debate people started buries the lead about acquiring Quentin.

[Fatalotti]

Is it time to re-enter CC Sabathia into the conversation for best pitcher in the game. He is "quietly" having a ridiculous season.

Currently leads all pitchers in WAR (though, I know I must qualify, that doesn't mean he's the best pitcher...WAR is just a part of the puzzle...)

The guy has just been a monster this year, and he's eating innings just like Halladay (CC: 7.33 IP/S, RH: 7.4 IP/S). He's been flat out good this year.

[Willard Preacher]

Maybe we can go back to the Kendrick success discussion. I don't feel like we ever came to a consensus on that.

[Spitz]

GTown, you are really on a Raul home / road split kick. Do you have a hypothesis as to why Raul is just a bad player on the road? To me, it just seems like randomness.

[Fatalotti]

Ibanez has done a HELL OF A JOB to turn his year around after having an OPS of .446 on May 2nd. He's creeping up on having an OPS+ of 100 for the season (currently at 95(, and I'll be honest; I didn't think that was even remotely poosible most of this year, even during his hot stretches.

Fact is, the guy works his tail off, and plays as hard as anyone on the team. His talent has been dwindling for a couple years now (happens as players age(, but he's done quite a fine job to turn himself into a more than serviceable bat in the middle of our lineup. I do wish he would walk more, as there is always value in getting on base as often as possible, but sluggins is of probably a bit greater importance at 6 in the lineup, so I won't gripe about it too much.

[Meyer]

WP, Upton for Vanimal even up.

[GTown_Dave]

Spitz: I don't know why, & quite frankly, I do not care. The point is that the Phillies have a viable platoon option in Mayberry, if not a potential deadline acquisition. There's no reason for Charlie to automatically start Raul on the Road when his stats for the past 2 seasons suggest he's likely to fail.

[CJ]

Ouch, Braves are getting sub-.700 OPS production from 4 positions: 2B (.641), SS (.581), CF (.654) and RF (.692). And that means sub-.700 OPS from four spots in the lineup... and since it's Fredi, those spots include 1st (.681), 2nd (.662), 5th (.677) and 7th (.631). I love Fredi!

For comparison's sake, Phils' problems are at C (.688) and 3B (.674)... and the spots in the lineup are 5th (.683), 7th (.681) and 8th (.691). In case you're wondering, that 5-hole problem is derived from Benny Franks' AWFUL .598 OPS in 152 5-hole plate apperances.

[The_GodfatherSJP]

BJ Upton is the loser's resort for Pence, Quentin, and Beltran.

I'd prefer the Phillies did not trade for him. They can get the same production from Mayberry or Brown.

[jr]

Ya know what I like best about Ibañez? He won't be a member of the Philadelphia Phillies in '12.
Dave, I hope you told RAJ.

[Spitz]

Looks like Ibanez's babip was 50 points lower on the road than home last year, and an astounding 80 points lower this year. There's no reason for that - its just fluky.

[RK]

An outfielder is not what we need a 3rd baseman is definitely what we need!

[denny b.]

Upton's a turd.

He'll never be a Phil.

One of our trade deadline "acquisitions" will be playing tonight. Oswalt.

And he costs you nothing to put back on the roster.

Another new ball player will likely be activated this weekend. Polanco.

And he costs you nothing to put back on the roster either.

[NEPP]

I'd be happy with Bell or Adams personally. I think the offense is good enough if we have a lockdown bullpen to go with our historically good rotation.

[Meyer]

Yeah forget Upton. What really is bothering me about this Beltran deal to the Giants is that I can't believe he really wants to play on that team in that park. Something smells about this whole deal that's for sure. It reminds me of the Lee to the Mariners trade. Maybe it's an East Coast bias. Now that the Phillies are the Yankees in the eyes of the rest of the country we should be able to buy exactly who we want, when we want for whatever the price. By the way, Who do we want?