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Thursday, July 21, 2011


So when the Mets say "We want Singleton or no deal!" for Beltran, the Phils can deliver.

Brewers need a CF, How about Mayberry for Casey McGehee? I know he's having a bad year,maybe he needs the old change of senery to snap out.Only makes 1/2 mil.Has also played 2b and 1b.

So how do we lose the "You might also like" stuff. Really, I might also like an article about something that happened or most likely didn't happen 6 months ago?

No thanks.

jr, that's a scary slump year from McGehee. Is he hurt, or did he just "lose" it. Looks a lot like Dan Uggla's year.

Based on Ruben Amaro, Jr.'s track record, I would not be surprised for the Phillies to make a move no one anticipates.

I'm with you awh. In fact I'm betting we end up with an OF and a RP that is not:

Pence, Willingham, Ludwick, Bell, Adams ...

I say it's Bourn and Choate.

McGehee's 2011 season is a huge enigma, but he's still the Brewers' starting 3rd baseman. Given his past performance & the Brewers' playoff aspirations, I can't see their trading him -- especially for a guy who's the same age and has never spent a full year in the major leagues, let alone have any sustained success there.

Colorado blows. Can't they hold a friggin 5 run lead?

It was a 4 run lead

Should Phillies pick-up Brandon Inge, remember he can catch too. Can hit homers and will come at the minimum?

denny b: Folks, they are 25 games over .500

Thats all well and good on July 21st, but that clock resets when Game 1 of the NLDS starts. These potential moves are all about winning the WS, not making it to the playoffs

asking price so prohibitive on pence teams are sure he'll remain w/ #astros. houston is cutting, somehow, to 60M tho

OPS against LHP = .660


Worley has started 12 games in the major leagues. In 9 (NINE) of them, he's held the opposition to 1 run or less.

He's pitched 75 innings in the majors. He's only given up 56 hits. Only 3 HR's (maybe his best trait). And 60 K's.

Of course he is "due for a regression". He's only human. Cy Young would be due for a regression too, with those numbers.

But this is not JA Happ. Happ had a great year in 2009. But he never approached the kinds of numbers Worley has. Not even close. And he gave up a TON of HR's. Which VW doesn't. And he had a injury history, which VW doesn't.

You can't keep "selling high" on every young player that comes along. Pretty soon, you got to hang on to a few of these young guys. For performance-sake and for financial-sake.

Forget about the rest of 2011 for a second. If Oswalt comes back healthy (still a big IF), it won't matter who the 5th starter is. You could throw Gomer Pyle in the 5th spot, the last month of the year. Worley's real value to this team will be in 2012. Because Oswalt will be gone. Kendrick could be gone. Who knows about Blanton at this point. And your next best starters in the high minors are Austin Hyatt and JC Ramirez (neither one in Worley's league).

If you are truly built on "pitching", then you don't deal Worley. Plain-and-simple. Deal Cosart. Deal May. Deal Pettibone. Those guys aren't going to help you in 2012 in Philly. Worley will.

And if Pence isn't moved now; just wait until December and get him then. It will probably cost you less (since there won't be that deadline to amp up everything) and you'll still get the player you wanted. And by then you'll have a better gage on some of your new draftees and teenage prospects. So you might be more apt to part with a Singleton or a Cosart at that point, if you feel your well stocked to replace them.

This team can win it all with the team they have. Anyone who thinks otherwise, hasn't been watching. And why? Starting pitching, good relief pitching, good defense and quite frankly, very few good teams in baseball this year.

And if you aren't liking what you see in August or an injury hits or whatever, you can always make a waiver deal then. Moyer and Stairs came over in August, after the deadline. Same thing could happen this year.

Aaron Heilman signed - reporting to Lehigh Valley.

Possible replacement for Kendrick in the pen if Worley is traded?

denny, I usually dsagree with you,but that was a decent post.


You got Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels to win in October. That's why you spent all this money to bring them here in the first place.

Nothing has changed and nothing will change in that regard. Whether you make a trade or not.

Quit all the panic move stuff. This isn't fantasy baseball. If the Phils were 5 games over .500 and with holes everywhere, it would be one thing. They are the best team in baseball and have been the best team in baseball most of the year. And they are set up better then anyone to be the best team in baseball in October (on paper).

Rube won't lose his street cred, if he stands pat. I know he likes to show everyone how smart he is. But sometimes the best move you make is the one you don't make.

Aaron Heilman has been washed up for about 3 years now.

He'll be gone as quickly as Tim Redding was.

I don't understand why people keep thinking the Mess have a lot of leverage in the Beltran deal. They are not resigning him next hear, they won't get any draft picks for him by offering arb, and keeping him doesn't make any difference this year, either from their playoff potential or their ticket sales. They are certainly going to trade him, so the bidders (if indeed there are multiple bidders, which I'm not sure of) just need to hold tight.

I have full confidence in Rube. He seems especially expert in handling the trade deadline. There is no doubt in my mind he is a better negotiator then Ed Wade or Sandy Alderson.

"All of this pitching over your head stuff, is bullcrap. Quit with sabermetric BS. The kid can pitch."

A very Cholly-esque statement from a guy that rips constantly.

Honestly though, dennyb is pretty much right on. I disagree with him that the bullpen is good enough (they could use another arm), but he's one of the few on BL that is at least willing to acknowledge that the team as presently constructed can win a World Series, and are probably the favorites to do so.

Everyone's clamoring for a bat and thinks if they don't, they'll be doomed in the playoffs Why? Fatalotti posts the numbers every day. Something like 4.7 runs per game with Utley and Brown. The offense is good enough already.

denny, those are awesome posts and I agree.

"They are the best team in baseball and have been the best team in baseball most of the year. And they are set up better then anyone to be the best team in baseball in October (on paper)."

Denny, you think they are better set up for October than the BoSox? I have to disagree with that. That offense is spectacular, and the pitching is very good.

bocox pitching after beckett and lester is pretty shakey. this has been mitigated big time by their offense that can put 5 or 6 on you in the blink of an eye.

It seems obvious that the team can win as is. There is no desperation to make any moves, but if Rube can pull something off without giving up too much, then do it.

In the interests of revealing internal contradictions for the sake of goin in record: I don't want the Phils to trade Worley.

I never liked Happ and I still don't like Kendrick. I don't view Worley as similar to these guys at all. I don't care what very, very limited sabr insights contribute to the discussion. The peripheral statistics pushed by sabr folks are a distant second best to the rotation and release point science I'd like to see to compare the pitchers.

Sure, sabr peripherals are an improvement over the 1920s era baseball stats we used to collect, but they're still deeply flawed and of very limited use. That sabr adherents don't acknowledge this is a continual source of befuddlement to me. Until I see rotation and release data that correspond to the sabr conclusions, I'll continue to be distrustful of any sabr analysis.

Note: I'm not really anti-sabr. It's an improvement over what we had, but we should be dying to give up these peripherals in place of better, science based stats. I get the feeling sabr people are in love with their peripherals for the sake of ownership of them and have lost sight if the goal of empirical analysis.

(the contradiction inherent in my stance re: Worley is that I have no reason to dislike Happ and Kendrick without having my desired measurements available to form an opinion.)

Don't bankrupt the team over Hunter Pence. Reason #1: We need Worley as a 4th starter this year until we see Little Roy fire his first pain-free CGSO. Folks, I can't see that happening with a pitcher who's 170 lbs. soaking wet, and must get his arm speed from his leg drive. All that torque gets transferred through the lower back. A ruptured disk can ruin Little Roy's whole day.

Reason #2: Anyone think Blanton's ever a serviceable starter again? I sure don't. With Little Roy's probable 2012 departure, Worley is an essential piece of the 2012 team. As badly as I ripped Worley for that stupid "...not stretched out..." comment, it's difficult to imagine a better 8 innings than Vance gave us yesterday. Good pitching is always harder to find than a solid corner outfielder.

denny b.'s comment about "Sabermetrics aside" really rings true. Control a solid promising starter now and for the next several years, and make a solid bid for Pence in December. denny b.'s remark about "not too many good baseball teams" in the league this year makes sense. Let’s win this thing, and keep the team as young as possible.

I agree with you denny. I'm not saying the should make a rash decision, that's just what my reasoning would be behind it.

It certainly wouldn't be bad to have a strengthened DH in the event the Phils reach the WS.

I'm concerned about losing Vanimal as a future back end starter with a cost controlled salary but after a few years of his wheeling and dealing I'm inclined to think Ruben knows what he is doing.

I think it's awesome that I can always tell I'm reading a post by cut_fastball without actually reading his name. Very distinct style.

The argument to sell high on Worley isn't even a sabermetric argument. You don't need sabermetrics to tell you that he's not going to have a low-2s ERA for very long.

The argument is that nobody, scout or sabermetrician, thought Worley projected as more than a #5 starter. I don't think 10 great starts is enough to refute that yet.

Those arguing against trading Worley for Pence are employing non-sequiturs like "this isn't fantasy baseball" or "stop the sabermetric BS" to make their argument.

Of course this team is good enough to win the World Series. If Tampa Bay calls offering Longoria and Price for Worley and Martinez, should we say no because "the team is good enough to win the World Series", "this isn't fantasy baseball", and "the team is set up fine"?

If you can make a trade that improves the team, make the trade, whether you're 25 games over or 25 games under. If you can trade your 5th starter for a 120 OPS+, good defense, 27 year old outfielder, do it.

Of course, it's probably a moot point because Houston wouldn't trade Pence for Worley because it's a ridiculously lopsided trade in the Phillies' favor.

Iceman, it's 4.69 runs per game.

Geez, don't you read my posts???

I better check out for the evening. Too many folks strongly agreeing with me. Even the Iceman!

Hey, I am not against making trades. The Phils are built to win now. But we also need to be smart about it and also weigh the next couple of years too in the equation. And the Phils will still be really strong in 2012 and 2013 too, health permitting.

I have faith Rube will do the wise thing again. His ego is huge but it should be. He always seems to do the right thing. But just don't do a deal for the heck of it and because you've done big deals the past 3 years. That's all.

cost control, schmaust control.

You make moves to improve the team's chances of winning the WS this year.

The Phillies made moves in previous years to improve their team and it didn't prevent them from putting the best team in the majors on the field this year. You can't run the team from fear of what's going to happen in the future - new opportunities will open up, new players will surface, and the team will have plenty of value to trade for upcoming players if they should fall out contention in future years.

I absolutely love watching Worley, but I'm not impressed by keyboard talent scouts predictions either way about his future. I consider his future an unknowable. I hope that we'll be able to watch him pitch for the Phillies in the future - but a fourth/fifth starter will not improve the teams chances this year as much as another bat or a quality reliever. If you can get that in a reasonable exchange for Worley - you do it.

When you are lousy as Houston, with so few good players and such a bad farm system, I am not sure why'd you'd get rid of Pence anyway.

They could start to get into the same situation Pittsburgh got into for years....get a couple of good players and then shuffle them off to the highest bidder.

I am sure they have payroll concerns. But you have to have a few good players making some money, if you want to even sniff 4th place. With the way they are going, they'll be stuck in last place for a while.

Nothing wrong with trying to control your schmaust.

One last one before I go for the evening...

The Blanton situation doesn't sound good. That was a gamble that Rube took that looks like its going to blow up in his face.

Joe helped this team win a WS, so really can't rip him too badly. But Rube should have moved him in the off-season. Both Worley and Kendrick have ablely filled his 5th starter spot.

Phlipper, shmost would've worked just as well, especially juxtaposed next to the word cost. Schmaust just seems excessive.

"Schmaust just seems excessive."
That's why it needs to be controlled.

OP, true. If the Phils can control their schmaust, they're a lock to win the WS.

OP - you're right. One can easily get lost in the schmaust.

Well the rumor mill is saying that the Mess asked for Teheran or Vizcaino from the Braves for Beltran, so their rumored request for Brown sounds like a legitimate one. And supposedly they want Wheeler from the Giants as well.

Can't blame Alderson for shooting for the moon...I doubt anyone meets that price, and he probably comes down before the deadline, but he is the best OF bat on the market, by far.

The Blanton situation has been covered before. Most of us were unhappy with his contract, but remember the context in which he was signed, i.e., as insurance for a rotation that didn't include Lee.

Wait, Blanton is out for the rest of this year and all of next? When did this happen?

Mike - that's just pure speculation by a couple of posters based on an article in the Trentonian.

Phils lead the league in cISC, cost independant smaust control. It's when you factor in the cost that things get murky.

"When you are lousy as Houston, with so few good players and such a bad farm system, I am not sure why'd you'd get rid of Pence anyway."

...because they're not about to win anytime soon with him, so why not work on restocking that farm system?

So let me get this straight? The Phils keep Baez, release Grilli who instantly gets picked up by the Pirates & gets added to the Pirates' bullpen, and then the Phils sign Heilman to take Grilli's place at Lehigh?

Roster management FAIL.

Keeping what?!

- Baez has a 8.06 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 25 2/3 IP since May 1st.

- Baez who has been charged with 1 run in 10 of his 19 appearances. 2+ runs in 6 of those 19 games.

- Baez who has been completely phased out by Cholly & who utterly refuses to use him unless the Phils are braining/getting brained by someone.

Amaro kept this guy over Grilli. I don't think there is another GM in baseball who wouldn't have released Baez already. His continued tenure here is one of the most puzzling thing Amaro has done.

I thought the Phils were keeping Baez for his bilingual skills.

Aaron Heilman = sucks monkey balz

This 'you might also like' links are just random outdated links with distracting enlarged pictures. Pass.

Actually one of those guys who is generally prejudiced to established MLB relievers and scoff at the notion that most T-AAA relievers/MLB relievers are interchangable parts who give you similar type results.

Where the SABR guys take things too far and you need guys who can evaluate pitcher's stuff/composure/etc to fill in some of the blanks.

That said, I do find it hard to believe that there Grilli or Schwimer couldn't outperform Baez at this point. Amaro has a habit of hanging on to veteran hasbins a bit too long but this one is just puzzling especially since the Phils had two clearly better options at T-AAA & Baez has been terrible most of last year and since April this year.

MG, I agree but there has to be a reason. I have no idea what it is, but there must be one. Rube's not a fool.

Cutter Dykstra "my dad didn't take my signing bonus" = "I spent it on hookers, just like he spends his money"

"Aaron Heilman = sucks monkey balz"

Yes, yes he does.

MG: Heilman may be one of the guys you're talking about - peripherals are decent (and generally always have been) but I used to love seeing him come into the 8th inning of a close Phils-Mets game.

Yes, the Phils organization and especially the fans owe Heilman this courtesy.

until a legitimate journalist tweeted (or otherwise reported) that Worley is the centerpiece of any Pence deal, did anyone here really think that Houston would consider such a package?

does Ed Wade even have authority to make that kind of trade? let's hope he's not wasting Ruben's time, he's a busy man.

btw, Buddy Ryan in 2008 - the thing you are asking about is available. it's only in limited ballparks so far, and i believe it's been discussed on this very blog. i read an espn article about it not that long ago. it measures spin on all pitches as well as time to the plate as opposed to mph.

Tis the season to be misled by trade rumors.

OP - yup, it's as good as Xmas time!

which of these things is not like the other:

•'s Jon Heyman hears that Houston's asking price for Pence is so prohibitive that teams are sure he'll remain with the Astros (Twitter link).
•A source tells Mike Silverman of The Boston Herald that Pence "won't be moved." (Twitter link)
•Earlier today we heard that the Phillies would like to frame any potential trade for Pence around right-hander Vance Worley.

I had a full week to ponder the Worley trade. It is becoming clear now. The fog has lifted. One more good game against Lincecum on Tuesday and he will be pitching in Nationals Park on Sunday July 31st. The Mets covet pitching and Worley is a perfect fit. This is not pure speculation but just an attempt at good guessing. Rube is a genius.

The Phils are good enough to have a bad pitcher like Baez on the roster as a mop up man. He's being paid $2.7MM if he is on the team or sticking his feet in the sand so why not keep him around? If you cut him earlier in the season and brought up Gordon and then cut Gordon and brought up Grilli, the next thing you know you are paying almost $3.5MM for a mop up role including Baez' salary. Come on, he's a mop up man for pete's sake.

To be honest....Not really liking the new stuff

"Schmaust just seems excessive."
That's why it needs to be controlled.

Posted by: Old Phan | Thursday, July 21, 2011 at 06:43 PM

OP ftw!

I know it's popular sport among Beerleaguers to rip on Aaron Heilman. I also know that he has been terrible this year & not particularly good since 2007. I must part company with MG, however, when he says that losing Grilli and gaining Heilman is a downgrade.

Not only is Heilman 2 years younger than Grilli, but he has had a much better overall career. Grilli essentially had one good year -- 2008. Other than that, he has been a AAAA pitcher who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2009. Heilman, though not as good as he once was, has still been good enough to pitch 72 innings, with passable numbers, in each of the last 2 seasons. He certainly has a better chance to contribute with the Phillies than Jason Grilli ever had.

I am currently scouting a toolsy lefty OF named Singlebury in the Tigers system and another poor fielding 1st baseman named Singlestein that Rube can sign.

dh phils - you obviously don't follow baseball!! worley is a young stud you need to keep your young studs!! if the regression was coming where is it? and why would the rays ever offer the trade you suggested? your ridiculous example just masks your inability to put together a real argument.

Is that parody?

"Iceman, it's 4.69 runs per game.

Geez, don't you read my posts???"

Fatti, don't you read mine?

Since June 5th (when Utley started to hit) the Phillies have averaged 4.86 RPG. I don't know where that puts them in that time period relative to the rest of the NL or MLB, but this myth that the Phillies are still offensively challenged seems to be self-perpetuating, and based on perceptions that were formed early in the season.

So I guess there is no way the Twins might be willing to part with Cuddyer? That is a guy I'd really like to see for the stretch run.

Dang, if the Twins win tonight they will be in 3rd place only 4 games back. Shasta, the Chief picked the Twins to win the Central.

The Cuddyer rumors really died down when the Twins left the break with a possible, if not plausible, chance of making a second half run.

Which means one of two things: he really isn't on the market, or Rube already bought him a plane ticket. Because he's sneaky like that.

Baez DFA'd to make room for Lidge...

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