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Friday, July 29, 2011

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Vic should stay batting 5th with Pence 3rd.

But whatever...UC is simply hard-wired to bat Vic 2nd if he can and he'll never break up Utley/Howard.

This all points to Brown being sent down. Too bad for him but Ibanez had damn well better produce. Happy to have Pence. He improves the team and lineup no matter who else is around him.

NEPP, Ancient Phan agrees with you, but I doubt UC does.

(Reposted From Prior Thread)

From r00b's general tone & non-answers, I'll guess that Dom will be sent down when Pence arrives, & Francisco will follow when Polanco returns. Carpenter ought to go when Oswalt is ready.

I like

Rollins
Utley
Vic
Howarad
Pence
Ibanez/Brown
Polly
Ruiz

Dom should stay up and Ibanez should be a bench player.

Ahh Fatalotti agrees with me. It's the optimal lineup imo, unless you listen to clout's optimizer and put someone slow as molasses at leadoff.

Its very smart to keep our statue defensively, 92 OPS+ LF with a sub-.300 OBP, soon to be free agent 40 year old on the 25 man over our future LF who's posting a 103 OPS+ and who has improved offensively every month since he's been up this year.

I hate the repost (plus most of this has already been mentioned) but did not expect yet another thread.

Phillies are at the tax threshold (i.e. out of money) so I think they will not be obtaining any more guys now or in August. Brown to the minors for the rest of the year may save the Phillies some significant money in his arbitration calculation.

I still wanted a bullpen piece for this year who could close next year. I think Phillies will overpay Rollins and not match Madson's very high price for 2012.

On the Pence deal: I like it. A good win-now move and a good win-tomorrow move too. While I am less inclined to believe that RAJ is repentant of letting Werth go I do believe that this is a good sign of him acknowledging the struggles of the offense.

Ibanez is not going to be a bench player.

IMO, breaking up Utley/Howard is not as important as breaking up Howard/Ibanez as Utley generally hits lefty's fairly well.
That said, I would still bat Utley 2nd and Vic or Pence 3rd, with the other batting 5th.

I think we can still get a PH bat in August...the luxury cap of 20% wont hurt us that badly on such a small move.

I am with you 100% NEPP.

Rollins, Utley, Pence, Howard, Vic, Polly, Ibanez, Ruiz, Pitcher is a perfect lineup.

Especially perfect, to combat O'Flaherty, Venters and Sherrill from the ATL and Affeldt and Lopez from SF.

Break Utley and Howard up. You just got a prototypical #3 hitter from Houston. Put him there.

Why would you bat Pence 5th anyway? So Javier Lopez can blow Utley and Howard away in October with a runner on base, and then pitch around Pence, to get to Polanco?

You want Pence to produce? Make other teams pitch to him in the post season. With Howard waiting on deck.

Since May 21st, the day Domonic Brown arrived, Dom has posted an OPS of 737 while Raul has posted an OPS of 732. Raul's is more slugging based (450) while Brown gets on base much better.

Of course, in the 17 games directly before Dom arrived, Raul had an OPS of 1.021.

Fatalotti: And I like Vic, Utley, Pence, Howard, Ruiz, Ibañez/Brown (pref. Brown), Polanco, Rollins ... but it ain't gonna happen.

Rollins and Vic one two has been the best lineup the Phillies run out there. It doesn't seem optimal, but speed at the top with Rollins, Vic and Utley drives opposing teams crazy and gives Howard opportunities. With Pence behind him, they finally have a "protection" hitter. Don't really think protection helps. But he's your five hitter and Polanco belongs somewhere after Ibanez.

And both Brown and Ben Fran will go to AAA in that order. And Carpenter will certainly go when Oswalt returns.

Btw, anyone else think Grilli has better stuff than Carpenter out there? Makes you wonder why Carpenter is still around and Grilli is gone. But that's a minor quibble.

NEPP - Brown's a bust! Don't you know that? He was supposed to hit a 9 run HR in his first AB.

I have to say, I love this trade...way to go, Rube!

I cant believe people were so critical of it the last couple of days...especially as we all know most rumors are totally bogus this time of year.

Trust in Rube.

Huh. According to Zolecki, Pence will don uniform #3. I guess the Phils don't want to mess w/ Dom's merch.

Who's the last Phillie to wear #3?

I'd like to complain about him stealing his number.

Do you think Dom plays some LF in Lehigh Valley? Probably where he plays in 2012.

Talk about an off night:

Eric Bedard: 1.1 IP, 27 strikes, 29 balls, 4 BB

Despite how good Victorino has been I do not want him batting 3rd. I think he is one of the emotional players who might try to change his approach with that slot.

Because of his excellent batting RH, it would make more sense to have him 3rd when he will absolutely face a lefty in late innings between Utley and Howard. Pence has no platoon split.

I also like having Victorino's speed a bit lower in the lineup where Polanco could be more of a hit and run guy (as another poster mentioned).

I actually like this trade, too. Love Cosart and Singleton as prospects, but Rube has been able to replace prospects at a pretty good rate. Zeid? Okay. I wonder why we don't know who the fourth player is yet? Any guesses? Tweets?

Ouch

Vic is the perfect #5 hitter in this lineup.

NEPP: Ouch... and Bedard was being heavily scouted tonight. Sucks for the Mariners.

I agree with those who want to see Utley 2nd, Pence 3rd, Victorino 5th.

Randy Miller is having a hell of a night on twitter: accidentally reports that Worley is going to AAA, tries a confusing joke about the Astros choosing Zeid over Dom Brown, and then takes the odd position that the Phillies robbed the Astros in this trade.

Miller writes: "Seriously, I am just blown away that Wade would make this trade. It's THAT lopsided in Phillies' favor."

I don't get that at all. Top 50 prospects don't get moved very often - 2 of them in the same trade is as good a haul as Houston could expect for an above average player. A group of idiot writers ran with the unsubstantiated story that Brown was in the deal - that doesn't mean Brown actually was available.

I think the trade is a good, sensible one for both sides.

From Wikipedia:
The "player to be named later" (PTBNL) is generally used to postpone a trade's final conditions or terms. This is often done for two reasons. First, the team receiving the PTBNL might not be certain which position they want to fill, so this type of deal gives them more time to figure it out. Second, this type of arrangement gives the team receiving the PTBNL more time to evaluate the available talent on the other team. The deal must close within six months of the conclusion of the rest of the trade.

When a PTBNL transaction occurs, the negotiating teams usually agree on a list of five to 10 players that the PTBNL will ultimately be chosen from. If the teams can't agree on who the player will be, then they will agree on a price to be paid instead of a player.

Bedard's night is now officially over: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 SO, 28 Strikes, 29 Balls, 2 men on are his responsibility.

Brutal night for him and the Mariners as his trade value just took a big hit. I wonder if he goes back on the DL now.

Maybe Rube is nervous about Cossart's inverted W and figured he'd get what he could out of him before Cossart needed elbow and shoulder surgery.

Ed Wade did very well in this trade, just as he did in the Brad Lidge deal. The jury is out on the Oswalt deal, but in that case, Wade had little leverage and he knew it.

PhxPhilly - When is the last time Polanco executed a hit and run? Tried to execute a hit and run? Thought about executing a hit and run? When he was in Detroit?

When is the last time ANY Phillie tried to execute a hit and run? How about a squeeze bunt? I'm guessing I was a neonate.

The myth of Polanco as a bat control small ball guy is way overblown. It's entirely built on the facts that he doesn't strike out often and he rarely takes a walk. And now that he's damaged, who really knows what we'll get from him?

I have to think Rube is trying hard to trade Francisco for literally anything at this point.

He has no place left on this team now. And that was even before Pence got here.

I'd say its even money Ben is traded before Sunday. I don't think sending him down, does anybody any good. Ryno would like it as LV makes its playoff push. But Francisco won't even be on a playoff roster, at this point, unless there are injuries.

He's at least competent enough to be on a major league team somewhere. And it sounds like he's been a good teammate, even after losing his job.

Shuffle him along and maybe pick up a replacement for Josh Zied along the way.

Is Randy Miller the dumbest beat writer in baseball? His tweets are brutal.

On the same night, the Eagles shocked the NFL by signing the most coveted FA (days after making a big trade for another coveted player)... and the Phillies traded for the best player on the market at the time (after an offseason in which they shocked MLB by signing the most coveted FA).

Golden age in Philly for the two biggest sports.

So, the Post Utley/Brown/pre-Pence days of the Phillies offense grades out at 4.71 runs per game, good for 2nd in the NL over that time span (May 23rd to July 29th, 59 games).

Do I have to start a new time frame, or is the Post-Utley era adequate enough to judge the true talent level of this offense?

So, here's my guess on what Braves fans are saying:

Pence isn't that good anyway, and the Phils just mortgaged their future.

My sources tell me Amaro isnt done. Adams will be a phillie by sunday. Get Rube a Beer and make it happen.

Rosenthal tweets: Source: #Astros wanted two of #Braves' top four pitching prospects, plus another young pitcher Braves regarded highly.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2011/7/29/2303567/braves-quote-for-the-day-hunter-trips

TC was ripping on Pence as early as 2pm today. Pre-emptive.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the words "Ben Francisco," "traded" and "player to be named later" in the same sentence by the end of the weekend.

Good thing we don't care what the 7 Braves fans think.

Drew - Why in the world would Wade take Ben Francisco in trade? He's not a broken down reliever. He's not a prospect of any kind. And even though Wade has no chin, contrary to what we've always thought, he does have a brain. He got two of our top three or four prospects in this deal.

If Francisco were the ptbnl, I'd drive him to the airport and pay for his flight to Houston. But I think I'll save my money on this one.

Such a ho-hum night for Halladay. Didn't even realize how dominant he was. 1 hit, no walks and 5 Ks over 7 innings. How good you are when you can have a game like that without making any noise.

Stark tweets: "#Astros will choose player to be named later from list of players in low A ball, sources say. PNL won't be a top prospect"

"Until late Friday, #Astros insisted #Phillies had to include 2 more of their top 10 prospects, including 2010 top pick Jesse Biddle #trades"

So when the Phillies send down Dom tomorrow, they might as well put him LF field right? Cause Pence will be here for a few.

I also agree with those who want to see Utley 2nd, Pence 3rd, Victorino 5th. Pence is worth more than Werth,for sure.

Francisco would be traded for a low level minor league guy, I'd think.

He deserves to go somewhere. He's not that bad. He's just not a starter in the big leagues.

I bet Pittsburgh would take him. He's better then Matt Diaz.

Between the offense and the trade talks, Halladay's performance somehow flew under the radar.

On the day we trade for Hunter Pence, Doc reminds us what's really going to win it for us this year...

aksmith: I was saying they're gonna dump him for a player to be named later, not that he's gonna be the PTBNL in the Pence deal.

Just my 2 cents.

Dom Brown will be sent to LV to get reacclimated to LF for the month of August. He will also get to build up his confidence offensively against AAA pitching. He will be back in Sept. Dom and Raul will be given about equal time in LF. Who ever is hotter going into October will be the starter for the playoffs.

According to Gelb, Polanco played all 9 at Lehigh tonight (0-4), & could be back as early as tomorrow.

Wow, Polanco hitless for the second night in a row. Can't wait to see that bat back in the lineup.

Probably working on that hit and run stuff.

Heather,
Now that we know that Amaro did not trade Brown along with Cosart and Singleton for Pence we can return to calling you a moron and refrain from calling Amaro one. Ok?

I just think that Pence is way too ordinary a player to command those kinds of prospects. .768 OPS on the road this year, .785 over his career. .799 in 13 career games in CBP. 3-23 in his career against Lincecum. He's even struggled against Zito. Outside of their respective home parks, Upton's the better hitter. And so is Quentin.

The hitter does not decide to hit and run. That is the manager's decision. Just because Charlie does not use the hot and run, does not mean that Polanco is not capable of executing the hit and run.

And yes, it is really going to be a horrible injustice to replace Mini-Mart/Valdez' amazing bats in the lineup with Polanco.

i'll take polanco over valdez or martinez who has basically already hit his peak

i can't even believe i just posted that. it's a no brainer

Where did that Giants troll go as The Beard lost the game to the Reds in the 13th - how ironic that Rentera got the game winning hit?

Sorry guys, I know I don't know anything, and I hardly post anymore, but Hunter freaking Pence? He with 11 HR in '11, and 5 HRs since June 1? How does this trade make a difference?

Heck how does it even matter? I heard Stark say Pence is batting ~.100 against most of Giants pitching.

BTW, both Beerleaguer and B-R.com servers are nearly smoked. so those numbers are hard to verify. Quite a night.

Me and my fake-ass beard just got beat by a relief pitcher and 90 year old Edgar Renteria in extras in Cincy.

You still have to fear me though!

Beardleaguer.

i'm not that worried about pence's numbers against the giants, it's a small sample size issue. everybody sucks against lincecum and cain, pence helps us not suck so much when they bring the lefty in for utley/howard/ibanez

Has DPatrone commented yet? I mean he has been stating for 3 years now that the Phils wouldn't do anything at the deadline. Lee, Oswalt, Pence.

Randy Miller needs to take a nap.

So, lets try and guess the next weeks roster moves:

Pence put on active roster- Brown optioned.
Polanco activated from DL- Francisco traded.
Oswalt activated from DL- Carpenter optioned

Baez traded for Drew Storen and Ryan Zimmerman (OK, that one may not happen).

The new top "Baby Ace" had another real good start for Clearwater tonight.

Be nice to see Colvin get back on track again, now that Cosart is gone. Lots of people liked Colvin more the Cosart before the season started.

I don't really like this trade, but it's not terrible. I will be disappointed if Pence takes Brown's spot rather than Ibanez's, but at this point I certainly won't be surprised.

After Lee/Halladay/Lee III, this feels like a boring, slight overpay. I can't believe I've been this spoiled by the Phillies.

Edgar renteria GW hit off Brian Wilson? Sounds delicious

Playing around with the baseball lineup tool, look who bats 7th in this lineup:

1. Carlos Ruiz
2. Shane Victorino
3. Jimmy Rollins
4. Hunter Pence
5. Chase Utley
6. John Mayberry
7. Ryan Howard
8. Michael Martinez
9. Kyle Kendrick

LOL

That cash from the Astros will be put in escrow until Ed is fired, then paid to him as a "consultant" as he lays on the beach in Clearwater.

The funniest thing to me about that generated lineup is that it has Martinez 8 and Kendrick 9. Those typically spit out the pitcher batting 8, which means KK > Mini-Mart.

That's some quality tool.

Thinking the same thing goody. Ed threw in the cash to move to the top rung on replacement list for Gillick's job.

krukker: Wow, you're right. I used Kendrick because he has the best wOBA/OBP/OPS of the starting pitchers. Substituting him for Haliday, it flips the final two. Is this what La Russa uses to construct his lineups?

You always want your slowest guy leading off.

Found this interesting, considering the talk that the Phils were "bidding against themselves"

"The Atlanta Braves also made a serious run at Pence, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. The Braves offered Houston four prospects -- two at the upper levels of the minors and two from lower-level clubs -- and were still exchanging names with Houston in the early evening Friday."

I wonder if Manuel can teach Hunter Pence how to walk. If Pence upped his walks to even 10%, his value would be so much greater.

You always want your slowest guy leading off.

It's a wonder Tony LaRussa hasn't gone that route.

I like:

Rollins
Vic
Utley
Howard
Pence
Ibanez
Polanco
Ruiz

Pence makes this lineup much more balanced. While I understand the argument of breaking up Utley and Howard....you bat your best hitter 3rd and that is Utley.

What about this:

Rollins
Victo
Utley
Pence
Howard
Polanco
Ibanez
Ruiz

Am I crazy? Probably....

Considering Manuel's insistence on batting Rollins leadoff...

Rollins
Utley
Pence
Howard
Vic
Polanco
Ibanez
Ruiz
Pitcher

I too think its a good trade. But I am worried about Brown. To be sent down now must be very deflating. I hope he can handle it. Sitting on the bench is just not going to help him develop.
It sure would be nice if we could get Ramirez for Brown and something else.
That team would even knock the mighty Yanks and Sox out in 4!

The lineup method that makes the most sense to me is stacking in order of wOBA. I rarely look at the results and say "Huh?" which is more than I can say about optimizers. In this case:

Victorino
Utley
Pence
Mayberry
Howard
Ruiz
Rollins
Martinez
P

Okay, well, Mayberry is a bit of a "Huh?" but he's actually been (quietly) pretty good. Meanwhile Brown's below Rollins:

Victorino
Utley
Pence
Howard
Ruiz
Rollins
Brown
Martinez
P

Either way, these single criteria lineups make a lot more sense to me than whatever algorithmic dark magic was going on with that tool.

You gotta wonder what Dom is thinking tonight - he knows he'll either be on the bench tomorrow or in left in LHV, a big shift from guaranteed playing everyday the past couple months.

ESPN Baseball Tonight called Pence a righthanded Utley - interesting.

Oops I'll take thatback I don't want to jinx that. But I do think that would be the best Phillie team and it would be built for a repeat performance--I think.

Regardless of your thoughts on the trade ... has there ever been a better time to be a Phillies fan? These past few years and the upcoming few have been and will be amazing - sit back and enjoy it while it lasts.

Fata -- Yo; you still up? Help me with this:

...Hunter freaking Pence? He with 11 HR in '11, and 5 HRs since June 1? How does this trade make a difference?

Heck how does it even matter? I heard Stark say Pence is batting ~.100 against most of Giants pitching.

Isn't Pence just another "ham and egger" who shows up to get punked by yet another slop-baller? Yes, I know he's hitting .300+, but his BABIP?

No, I just don't get it. Feels like the way I play chess. Just moving pieces on the board.

MY Oops was somehow lost.
repeat:
I too think its a good trade but I do worry about Brown. Sendign him down is very deflating and of course keeping him here on the bench is not going to help him develop.
Sure would be nice if we could find a home for him in Chicago and pick up Ramirez.
Wow what a team capable of beating even the mighty Yanks and Sos.

Can anyone explain to me why everyone thinks Rollins (.272/.329/.433 lifetime) should be leading off instead of Victorino (.281/.346/.436 lifetime)? Isn't the idea for the lead-off batter to be the best one at getting on base? Is it just me or does anyone else think it's insanity that Rollins is the assumed best choice for lead-off?

Fatalotti: "Do I have to start a new time frame, or is the Post-Utley era adequate enough to judge the true talent level of this offense?"

I was actually gonna say that you have to start a new one, while still continuing with the old one. But I'll make you a deal: you keep doing the post-Utley spreadsheet; I'll do the post-Pence one.

NEPP - "Dom should stay up and Ibanez should be a bench player."

Agreed.

Brown contributes as much offensively as Ibanez already. Better OBP. Not as streaky. Better speed. Better athlete.

Defensively, Brown won't hurt the team any more than Ibanez. They both suck.

dennyb: "I have to think Rube is trying hard to trade Francisco for literally anything at this point."

I've been predicting a Francisco trade for awhile now. With the acquisition of Pence, it makes too much sense. He has a little value to other teams and, even if we send Dom down, we still don't need Francisco, when we have Mayberry & Gload on the roster. And, while Francisco's prorated salary isn't much, getting rid of him might save us just enough money to make an August trade for a LOOGY without going over the luxury tax threshold.

chuckt808: I thought Rollins should have batted 6-7 for most of his career, and the wOBA stacking method backs up this assertion.

chuckt808 - I think Rollins batting lead-off has nothing to do with offensive performance and everything to do with Rollins' status on the team as well as his relationship with Charlie.

cut_fastball wrote:

Isn't Pence just another "ham and egger" who shows up to get punked by yet another slop-baller? Yes, I know he's hitting .300+, but his BABIP?

No, I just don't get it. Feels like the way I play chess. Just moving pieces on the board.

So, going into the stretch, you'd rather have a rookie with a .737 OPS and OPS+ of 103 than a guy who who has .828 OPS and OPS+ of 132 (.818 OPS/113 OPS+ lifetime) because you think Pence is a "ham and egger," whatever that may mean?

b_a_p -- How does Pence make a difference? His hyper-"work ethic"? That can get you arthritis; see Utley, Chase. His BABIP is higher than it should be... how did we not just re-acquire Ben Fran/ JMJ?

Don’t we already have a “Pence-equivalent” on our team? Everything I’ve read about Pence says that he has an “ugly” swing. Boy oh boy, can’t wait for Pence’s next 0-23…

derekcarstairs wrote:

I think Rollins batting lead-off has nothing to do with offensive performance and everything to do with Rollins' status on the team as well as his relationship with Charlie.

This may be true but it seems an utterly ridiculous reason to me if you are trying to win ballgames.

I don't know what a "Ham and Egger" is but I like the phrase and plan on using it.

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