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Thursday, July 28, 2011

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Lincecum's 70's bush must go!

Is Timmy gonna wear a diaper tonight? I hope he stinks up the joint and not Kendrick.

Singleton & Cosart PLUS a 3rd piece is by far the best offer they'd ever get.

Wade once again shows why he's a "great" GM.

I'm okay with bailing out on Pence. He's good, but we'd be 'buying high'.

Give up. The remaining guys aren't good enough to trade for. We'd just be getting more Mayberries and Franciscos but older and costlier.

Quentin is better than either.

Bourn would be too.

At this point, I say work on a BP piece. If it's really down to Ludwick and Quentin, I'd rather just pick up a waiver bat in August.

I believe that if the Phils lose tonight (which is pretty likely given the fact that it's Kendrick vs. Lincecum) Amaro will make a move and it could be a drastic one.

I say they should go and get Upton. He has some power, will steal bags and plays great defense. He's not as good as Pence or has the power of Quentin but he would be a defensive upgrade to Dom (right now) and gives us the right handed bat we have been hoping for.

We could probably get him for a top and a mid-level prospect.

Am I the only one who thinks Michael Cuddyer is the best fit for this team right now? Even better than Pence, much better than Quentin and much, much better than Ludwick or Upton.

You can argue that Pence is a better player than Cuddyer, but I really think Cuddyer is the better fit.

Probably a moot point with the Twins only 6 back.

Cosart-Singleton-+ is a pretty huge offer. I don't see the Braves topping that. If only we had a Travis Lee or Bud Smith type we could throw in to the deal.

I'm actually shocked that Wade thinks he could do better than Cosart/Singleton. That's more than we gave up for Halladay or Lee.

I agree on Cuddyer...he'd be a great fit for us.

Does anyone think that taking a flier on a 26-yr-old Melky Cabrera could pay off?

I don't think the Pence thing is dead. Again Wade has all the leverage so maybe he waits a day or two to see if the Phils counter desparately with more and if they don't maybe he calls them and accepts their previous "big" offer. Happens all the time.

I really don't want Ludwick. I'd take Upton over him in a second. I love the idea of having Upton glide out there in center and moving Shane if need be. If Upton's the worst offensive addition between those 3 named above he's surely the best defensive option available this year. His swing actually reminds me a little of Dom from the right side. He clearly has less discipline given the strikeouts but still looks pretty long at the plate.

***he would be a defensive upgrade to Dom (right now) ***

I have a Scottish Terrier that just had surgery that would be a defensive upgrade on Dom.

Michael Cuddyer is available?

Wade might come to his senses before the deadline and come back to Rube to accept that deal. Rube might then drop it a bit (sub out Cosart with Colvin or another lesser piece) as Wade will be over a barrel.

Michael Cuddyer is available?

JBird - We could toss in Jiwan James and Tyson Gillies. Wade would be sure to jump at all those tools.

If the Phils cannot beat the Giants with any consistency that is evidence of a big bat need. They cannot afford to lose in the post season to these guys again because of dreadful offense.

Sorry for the double post.

Melky or Upton please.

Is Melky Cabrera off the table at this point too?

Andy, I think that deal would be stronger if we didn't give them Gillies...Gillies probably has a negative value at this point.

Bonehead - Melky? No.

How about we do the Singleton, Cosart package along with Aumont, Ramirez and Gillies and maybe the Sox can toss Viciedo (only metaphorically possible) into the Quentin deal? 5 for 2.

Potential Scenario: The Braves do end up with Pence by the end of the day. Beltran gets a hit and scores a run early for the Giants tonight, meanwhile fielding his position competently. Lincecum cuts through the Phils' lineup for the first three innings.

Result: Beerleaguer implosion during the game chat. Cue gravel Bette Davis voice. "Fasten your seat belts, it's gonna be a bumpy ride."

You have to think that Cuddyer would be available. The Twins aren't going anywhere this year, he's a FA at the end of the year, etc etc.

RAJ is just playing Wade like a fiddle. I don't think they're out of the mix on Pence, just yet. Especially when Wade realizes that passing on Cosart/Singleton to keep Pence not only won't save his job, but only makes it more likely that he loses it. He'll have a change of heart.

Whether or not Rube should pull the trigger, however, is up for debate.

I don't understand why Wade would hold onto Pence now just to deal him in the offseason. Pence is worth more to a team now than he is at the beginning of next season, so whatever value Wade is going to get now is going to be greater than he'll get this offseason.

Pence will get moved before Sunday night.

If Wade didn't take that deal for Pence, he is certifiable. That would have been bending Rube over for a player who, frankly, isn't worth it.

Drew- I agree with you 100%. The only way I wouldn't be calling the Twins every hour on the hour for Cuddyer is if they filed a restraining order against me. And in that case, I still might be calling them.

Quentin would also be a good fit in the lineup, but not at a king's ransom.

I wouldn't give up Cosart/Singleton for Pence personally.

I think Carlos Quentin or BJ Upton are the best options. Quentin may be more of a butcher in the field but his power in this lineup would be a significant upgrade. Upton is a mental case but I think this club house would put him in his place.
I have chilled on Ludwick watching him more and I think Cuddyer or Pence at this point will be one of those situations where they have to overpay way too much.

I read the comment somewhere that Wade will wait to the off season to deal Pence. A normal GM would see the foolishness in that (his value will only decrease away from the deadline); but remember we're dealing with "Whiz Kid" Wade.

Pence to Braves and a big night for Beltran and not only will BL explode, but Rube may actually trade every single minor leaguer we have for Wily Mo Pena, just to make a move.

***I read the comment somewhere that Wade will wait to the off season to deal Pence. A normal GM would see the foolishness in that (his value will only decrease away from the deadline); but remember we're dealing with "Whiz Kid" Wade.***

That worked out really well when JP Ricciardi did that with Doc. Well, it helped out AA anyway as Ricciardi was long fired by then.

Preacher - If rube makes a "reaction deal" it will still be a big deal. Remember how he rolls. It'd be more likely that we came out of it with Ubaldo.

NEPP: I agree, I just don't see Wade getting a better offer than that. It's a big offer. Maybe Wade thinks now that Beltran's off the market that he'll have more leverage.

When you have a chance to get a Wily Mo Pena, you take that chance!!

Andy, agreed. Holding onto Pence does nothing for the Astros but lessen the package. If a team's not desperate enough NOW to give up more than a package like Singleton/Cossart+, then why would they be more desperate in the offseasno or at next year's deadline?

NEPP - I was trying to say what Fattalotti said just before I hit "post." Pence's trade value will never be better than right now. In the off season, no one will give him what teams will in the next couple days.

I'd love Quentin, but I don't think he'll be available before the deadline.

If we get Upton, Charlie could line-up "The Trees" in the outfield with Upton, Mayberry, and Brown, and call it the "Forest".

I certainly hope losing a Kendrick v Linecum matchup in the middle of the season doesn't singlehandedly push Amaro toward a "drastic move". If that's the case you might as well place a drunken Beerleaguer in charge.

No to Upton, not an upgrade.

No to Cabrera, no way they take on a bad clubhouse guy with low upside.

Mayberry makes RF look small

I think I would like to see the Braves overpay for Pence now and confuse their infield trying to jam Prado back in.

If we don't land Pence or Quentin, any interest in Carlos Lee? Platoon him with Ibanez in left. Power is dropping but he still can mash lefties. Only bad thing is salary for enxt year, but maybe can get Houston to pick up half of that.

Agree with those who think Cuddyer is the best fit, especially because he can play a little third base if Polly or Utley have physical issues later. But he is an icon in Minnesota and the Twins would catch lots of heat for dealing him for A level prospects.

Dom makes RF look like an obstacle course

Supposedly the Twins want to resign Cuddyer too for some reason.

Anonymous: You'd rather have Raul than Upton? And the reason a middle of the season series would cause him to react is because this is the team lost to because we couldnt hit them in the playoffs last year and is likely the team we will see this year in the playoffs

Dom and Mayberry make Victorino look short.


.


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(So do most of us.)

"Cosart-Singleton-+ is a pretty huge offer."

Huge only in the extremely theoretical terms through which prospects are viewed. Cosart has huge potential, but the actual results on the field have been about what you'd expect from a fringe prospect. The same is true of many minor league pitchers. Only a tiny handful ever fulfill their presumed potential.

Singleton has great plate discipline for a 19-year old, & he's a pretty good (.290-ish) hitter. But he's 3 years away from the majors & only plays 1st base, where the bar for hitting success is extremely high. And right now, Singleton's power is very marginal. Maybe it will develop & he'll turn into a LH version of Kevin Youkilis. Or maybe it will remain so-so & he'll turn into Billy Butler. Or maybe it won't develop & he won't be able to hit major league pitching -- kind of like past uber-prospects Justin Smoak & James Loney.

So basically, we're asking the Astros to trade a young, and very good, major league outfielder for a lottery-ticket pitching prospect & a 1st baseman who's 3 years away from the majors & is just as likely to turn into Justin Smoak as Kevin Youkilis.

I understand that, under the criteria used to evaluate prospects, both these guys are very good prospects. I also understand that the Astros may not get a better offer. But in real world terms, it's rather easy to see why Ed Wade wouldn't be tripping over himself to make that trade. It's not like he HAS to trade Hunter Pence.

At this point Wade should just gut that team for prospects. Firesale. You're dead last in the league, there's no excuse if you're the GM to not get all the value you can players at the deadline as opposed to the offseason. He's created a Phillies AA team in Houston and he knows his days are numbered, he has to, so his approach here is somewhat humerous. Like bro, everyone knows your track record, you're not calling the shots, so give us whatever fringe 3 1/2 tool pseudo all-stars you have and call it day. And oh yeah, back your bag because Rube just fired you.

Agaain we have more outfielders than we know what to do with. The Cubs are out of it why not go after a legitimate 3rd baseman like Ramirez.
http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/columns/story?columnist=greenberg_jon&id=6782152

BAP, I didn't realize that Smoak had "turned into" anything yet. Also, Pence is being dealt for prospects. All prospects are risks.

It could also be that Drayton McLane vetoed the deal too. Wade very well might not have the final say. McLane has done that in the past and he might want to keep "his guy" in town until the sale is official. Perhaps the incoming ownership group requested he not be traded either.

Raul makes LF look like a mud pit

Ramirez has a FNTC and has stated he wont accept any deals.

Add to the list of "can't miss uber-prospects":

Andy Marte
Matt LaPorta

LaPorta was the centerpiece in the Sabathia trade and has (as of his Age 26 season now) posted a career .695 OPS as a 1B.

Let's remember this, also. Wade has been in Houston 4 or 5 years with nary a division title to show for it. And now a new owner is taking over. Surely, Wade understands that, unless there's radical improvement, he's got one more year on the job in the absolute best case scenario. So why would he trade his best player for some dudes that won't contribute for 3 more years, if at all? Obviously, he's going to want guys like Brown & Worley because, if they come in & have strong 2012 seasons, he can make a credible case to his new boss that he's got the team on the right track again & he should get another year.

bap, you really dont think Wade is fired the day the season ends?

RK: I agree with that. I'd love to see Aramis here. But what do you do when Polly comes back?

***But what do you do when Polly comes back?***

DFA Wilson Valdez and have a very well paid utility infielder.

bap: If Wade's trading for prospects, then Singleton-Cosart-+ is a huge offer. Keith Law's mid-season top 50 had Singleton at #24 and Cosart at #17. If prospects were sure things, they wouldn't get traded 2 or 3 for 1.

Get Rube A Beer, it's a moot discussion as there's no way Ibanez is getting benched. If the platoon with Mayberry/Francisco hasn't happened already, it's not gonna. The discussion would be replacing Brown with Upton. Despite Brown's minus defense, the move would probably be less than a wash as Brown's offense is already better and can be expected to improve (along with the defense, but that's not as important).

Bonehead, you have awesome timing

bap: I'll defend Singleton somewhat. The only knock against him (besides his defensive position at 1B/LF) is that he hasn't shown as much power this year. But he's 19 and in High-A, in what is widely considered a pitcher's league that suppresses power. Power is almost always the last tool to develop fully for a player. A lot of guys don't start flashing real legit power until 21-22 once they hit the higher levels.

I agree, though, that the lack of results from Cosart are somewhat troubling. As is the consensus that his delivery makes more injuries likely.

Haha NEPP: Yeah I guess that's all you could do

RK I'm with you on Ramirez.
Don't be surprised if the Phils end up with someone not even being talked about.Brown and/or Worley in the deal.

OK, anonymous...what about next year? I'd rather have Upton over just about anyone on the FA market. He's still young and controllable for a couple years.

If Rube makes a trade, especially a 'drastic' trade, based on the results of one game in late July, particularly one started by Kyle Kendrick, who won't be anywhere near the rotation in October then he truly is a Rube.

Why would Ed Wade take High A prospects for Pence? They won't be in the bigs for three years most likely. He'll be long gone by then. He'd be insane to do that deal. Even if he could get a couple of real prospects who were killing it in AA, I bet he'd take them. But not when they're that far away from the show.

I'd much rather go with NEPP's idea. Michael Bourn would solve a lot of problems on this team. In fact, he'd be the best fit on this team. He'd go to center, Vic to right and Raold in left. That makes two gold glove fielders in their proper positions. He'd be the major basestealing threat the Phillies now lack at the top of the lineup. He's a lot like Reyes in that respect. If he gets on first, he's going to be on second in short order. And it's just as likely to happen on a spinning twenty footer as a well hit single. He catches everything in the biggest centerfield in baseball, so the Bank will seem like a little league field to him.

I say go get Michael Bourn. Never wanted to see him traded in the first place, but they got a magical Lidge season out of it. So we can't cry about it. But get him back. It will be like the return of Cliff Lee, but with stolen bases.

From day one I didn't think Pence was going anywhere and Wade was smart to listen but smarter to not make a move for the sake of it. Pence is good, fairly cheap and young. Why would Wade rush to move him?

They'll find a veteran RH bat. He'll have great splits but be a name no one's talking about. Charlie will platoon him with Ibanez. Might even come over the waiver wire. It'll be fine.

aksmith: so Matt Rizzotti & Derrick Mitchell for Pence?

If the Phillies make the WS with this roster, I'd DH Brown instead of Raul. The kid is out of control in right. He scares me much more than Raul.

Have you seen what Rizzotti's doing lately? He is barely adequate at AA. Last year's hot streak is a thing of the past. I think he's in the .280s with little pop. And he's a poor fielder. He's exactly what he was before he became a superstar. So, no.

I said "prospects" at AA.

I think you need to use the [\Sarcasm] switch.

Ramirez is a 3rd Baseman Poly can't play this position on a daily basis and we here at BL have pointed that out when the trade happend. It's also not clear that Poly can return to full time play.
My posts back then were all for the Poly trade but not for a full time 3rd base spot.
If we had Ramirez than we could have Poly in the lineup whenever Utley or for that matter anyone needs a spell.
Imagine a lineup without Martinez and Valdez!

UC would platoon Raul until the moment he had 2-3 good games in a row against RHP...then he'd suddenly give Raul a start versus a tough LHP because of his gut and suddenly that veteran RH bat will be on the end of the bench trading sunflower seed bags with Ross Gload and Ben Francisco.

Cuddy would be great but twins took him off. upton is still
Best fit. Cq is stayin with sox. I don't want crudwick or willingham.
Maybe Melky if we can throw in a bag of balls and take a chance

NEPP, I bet he would trade sunflower seed bags with Gload and Francisco way better than Valdez does currently.

And when you have a chance to upgrade, in any way, you have to do it.

Not much good news on the web today. Braves want Pence, Lincecum pitching tonight, and Beltran is in the Giants' line-up. We have the best record in baseball-why don't I feel confident? If what we're reading is true, there isn't much help out there. I don't think Upton will do much for us, and the Sox are not moving Quentin since they are still in the AL Central race. I want no parts of Ludwick. At this point, I'll take Heath Bell or Mike Adams, but it would have been nice to add a bat.

Get Rube A Beer, I was under the impression that Upton was on a 1-yr contract and is arbitration eligible. Am I mistaken?

Honestly, if Bourn is out there to be had, that'd be a great get.

aksmith: Rizzotti's got 18 homeruns and a .875 OPS. He could have a Travis Lee ceiling. [\Sarcasm]

Upton makes $4.83 million this year and is in his final year of Arbitration in 2012. He's a FA in 2013.

Bullpen arm is still what I would like to see the most. Tying their wagon to Lidge to be a critical setup guy seem to be an exercise rife for disaster.

MG, you didn't see that high warmth for the strikeout in the 8th?

Lidge is back baby!!

Pence for Brown and Singleton = Ed Wade statue by third base gate.

Obvious that Ed Wade is just holding out for Stutes or De Fratus. How can he deal Pence and not get at least one certified reliever/relief prospect in return?

Cot's is showing Upton signed through 2011. Is it incorrect?

Cabrera - No way Amaro touches him for several reasons.

Ludwick - Why again do the Phils hav interest in this guy before the trading deadline? Thought a deal at the trading deadline is actually supposed to upgrade the team.

Other thing I wonder about is Polanco. Thought having to rely upon Mini Mart to start 3B in the playoffs is a pretty disheartening one. Imagine as long as Polanco can walk upright, he will be starting at 3B though.

I guess the conversation went like this:

Rube: What do you think of our offer for Pence?

Wade: I like it, but the Houston fans will kill me. Can you put Worley in the deal?

Rube: The Philly fans would kill me.

A phone rings in the background.

Wade: Rube, you'll have to excuse me, that's Frank Wren (Atlanta GM) and he's pissed that Beltran went to the Giants. Let's see what he'll give me for Hunter. Gotta go. (click)

Rube: Wade. Wade. Wade?

...high warmth...

Awesome job, Fatalotti.

Love Bourn too. Phils don't have the power in years past and Bourn is exactly the kind of guy (high OBP, great baserunner and SB threat, great bunter) that you can manufacture runs with in a close game.

Dramatically boost your defense (say Bourn is a just a bit better than Vic in CF range wise) and Vic in RF means you only have weak spots on the diamond in Howard and Ibanez.

I can't imagine though Amaro would be remotely interested in going that route. Clearly want up an offensive upgrade in RF.

i agree with BAP's post on why Wade isn't an idiot for not accepting Cosart/Singleton.

we tend to overrate our own prospects to some extent. i understand that they are both considered top prospects, but they are far from sure things.

i doubt Wade has the authority to make a trade unless it's a no-brainer. a major league ready top prospect like Brown would likely get their attention, and it's something he would likely take to ownership for approval. short of something that would blow Houston away, Pence stays put.

NEPP: I do think Wade will be fired when the season ends but sometimes new owners will let the old regime stay on for 1 year. If you were Ed Wade, that's the scenario you'd have to be hoping for.

Jack: I actually really like Singleton as a prospect. I think there's a good chance he's going to be a very good major leaguer, if not a star. I'm just saying . . . a lot can go wrong with a guy who's that far away from the majors and, very often, things do go wrong. I'm no fan of Ed Wade, but I don't really understand the general tone of incredulity that he would turn down two Single A prospects for a very good 28-year old major leaguer whom he absolutely does not have to trade.

YNT!

If Lidge can hit spots with his warmball (nod to Fat), and have his 2010 version slider, he'll be a better than average 7th inning guy.

Chance of this happening: I think about 75%. Lower, if not for the presence/guidance of Chooch.

If Lidge can hit spots with his warmball (nod to Fat), and have his 2010 version slider, he'll be a better than average 7th inning guy.

Chance of this happening: I think about 75%. Lower, if not for the presence/guidance of Chooch.

Why do we continue to talk about guys who are not not going to be traded. The Twins took Cuddyer off the market, and Aramis Ramirez has already said he will not waive his NT clause for any deal.

Brown is no longer a prospect. He's a 23-year old league-average outfielder.

I'm taking bets on whether Brown or Pence will have the better offensive second half. My money is on Brown.

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