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Friday, July 29, 2011

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Wait, there are baseball games tonight? I thought it was just speculation about trade rumors tonight.

Thank God.

Von Haze: Dom Brown's hand injury in Spring Training typically saps a player's power for a year.

Hopefully, the news of the Pence for Brown deal are greatly exaggerated.

Jack: Why Galvis? Because Galvis is closer to actually helping. And because they need a 2B and either he or Villars could shift.

Is it too late to turn off the faucet of commenters from CSNPhilly.com?

The Pirates come in to town just as the popsicle pirates leave town.

Jbird: Quick yes or no. Will Dom Brown have a Hall of Fame career?

Valdez at third? Is Charlie punishing Mini-Mart for his botched play at 3B last night?

And is it true that official scorers are given bonuses based on the fewest errors scored?

People need to realize something...regardless of one's opinion about Brown, regardless of how one values prospects, we're talking about trading what amounts to 3 of the top 30 prospects in all of baseball. For Hunter freaking Pence. That's asinine. That's the kind of trade you make for Matt Kemp. Or Justin Upton. Or Roy Halladay. It's NOT the kind of trade you make for Hunter Pence. Ever. Or you get fired.

That proposed trade in the last thread should net the Phillies a superstar, not a Hunter Pence.

Clout: True, hadn't considered that. And pretty obviously Villar would shift to 2B, right? Given Galvis' defensive reputation and Villar's better offensive ceiling, it makes more sense that way.

Clout: the odds are obviously not in favor of Brown having a hall of fame career. Do you think Hunter Pence is a Hall of Famer? I'm confused where this is leading.

Which is more moronic? Dan saying that Dom will have an annual .850 OPS or JR saying that Mayberry is a better prospect than Brown?

Which is more moroinic? Dan saying that Dom will have an annual .850 OPS or JR saying that Mayberry is a better prospect than Brown?

Clout: that was a "no", by the way.

So can I stop holding my breath for Jose Bautista? Come on Rube - pull it out of your hat!

I would predict that Dom puts up an .850 OPS or higher in multiple years of his career.

clout: Do you think a sustained peak of, say, .290/.380/.470 is out of reach for a raw 23-year old hitting .247/.338/.399?

It's far from certain but putting that prediction on the same level as Mayberry being better than Brown is a little over-the-top, don't you think, no matter how down you are on Brown?

@GTOWN

And Brown swings so hard, it's not the ball the flies through the air, rather the ball just stays still. The earth moves backward from the force.

And the dirt kicked up by his cleats can be used as fertilizer for the entire state of Nebraska, it's so powerful.

Spitz: Shhhhhhh, don't jinx it!

olney just tweeted that Brown is not a part of any Pence deal.

And he swings so hard, it's not the ball the flies through the air, rather the ball just stays still. The earth moves backward from the force.

And the dirt kicked up by his cleats can be used as fertilizer for the entire state of Nebraska, it's so powerful.

Godfather: I heard the Grand Canyon got it's start when one of Dom's ancient forebearers took a running dive at a routine fly rock, & missed.

As of 5:15 p.m., NL source says the Phillies have no intention of putting Domonic Brown in a deal for Pence

like I said late last night. Cosart, Singleton and Trevor May is the deal

If Brown had Hunter Pence's BABIP, he'd be hitting .326 with a .407 OBP.

Mini Mart NOT IN THE LINEUP!??!?!


He's getting traded!!!!!1111

"Bottom line, if Rollins, Utley and Howard show up in the playoffs, the Phils are having a parade. If they don't, the Phils are losing no matter who our RF is."

Exactly. Vic is the other guy who has to show up, but he usually does.

Something isn't right here. JW started this thread from the future.

"If Brown had Hunter Pence's BABIP, he'd be hitting .326 with a .407 OBP."

Of course, if Brown knew how to do anything except foul pitches off or make weak contact, he might even have Hunter Pence's BABIP. BABIP arguments are for pitchers, not hitters.

THANK GOODNESS!!!

Reason takes over!

No Dom in a Pence deal.

Earlier this morning, I pegged around 6 PM for when we'd get an announcement that Cosart, Singleton and May had been traded for Pence.

Now I'm thinking it gets done late night tonight. We'll see, though. My money is on Pence being in town tomorrow, and starting on Sunday.

BAP: You can absolutely make BABIP arguments for hitters, with more caveats.

Brown and Pence have similar LD%.

Nice catch Dave Cash.

Also, my point was more to illustrate that Pence's BABIP is unsustainably high than to illustrate that Brown's is unsustainable low, although I think both are true.

DH: With more caveats, yes. But one of the major caveats is to know that player's own historical BABIP. We don't have that information for Dom, since he has no historical BABIP at the major league level.

clout - your bet regarding Brown, Pence, and OPS+ was accepted. What are the terms?

Someone said it earlier, but the Dom Brown ruse was only designed to make us think it's okay to deal Singleton, Cosart and May for Pence. In reality, that's still too big of a haul for a marginal upgrade.

Lucky for Phils fans, any trade for Hunter Pence isn't in Roobs hands. Any deal that has potential to cost the Phils $10MM next year isn't even in Dave Montgomery's hands. The franchise is so far above its nominal salary cap by signing Cliff Lee it will require the approval of a super majority of ownership to do this deal. It isn't about what Ed Wade wants, it's ultimately about what any move does to the Phils future finances.

When the Pence deal happens... sounds like there's a good chance Brown goes down to get regular ABs at AAA instead of getting just pinch hit ABs for the next month. At least that's my read from some of the beat writer tweets tonight regarding Charlie's thoughts on Dom's development.

templin reminds us of the all-important SUPER majority! I hear the SUPER-delegates from Ohio really like Pence.

I've been watching the back and forth here and it seems likely that the prospects are not going to be the ones we think. We didn't think it was going to be Villar and Gose and Happ for Oswalt last year.

I would say that giving up May and Cosart and Singleton in the same deal for a less than star player is a mistake. It's not the kind of mistake you can't recover from, but a mistake nonetheless. It still leaves a lot of pitching in the system. But Clout asked before how many of May, Cosart and Singleton will be significant major leaguers. I'd say one and a half. Singleton is going to be a good major league first baseman or more likely left fielder. (He was moved back to first because of an ankle injury.) And Cosart's upside is front of the rotation starter, at worst a 3. May's upside may be as a number 3 starter, but it's unpredictable because he doesn't have command of his pitches. But he's a serious prospect. So, I'd say Singleton has a good major league career ahead of him. And one of those two pitchers has a really good career ahead of him. Overall, I'd hedge my best and say one of the two pitchers is a really good starter and Singleton is a non-star by solid player.

Is that a lot to give up for Pence? Maybe. But if Rube is high on Pence, I can see why he'd do it. And it always seems that the prospects are different when the trade actually happens.

Myself, I'd load up Cosart, May, Singleton and any other single prospect in the system for Kemp instead. But maybe that doesn't get it done.

This also tells us that the Phillies are willing to pay the luxury tax next year. There's almost no way they avoid it without flipping Pence in the offseason.

what CJ is referring to:

"I think he's holding his own," Manuel said. "He hasn't been tearing it up. I see the aspect of his hitting. He shows you sometimes when he puts a good swing on a ball that he has a chance to be a real good hitter. But I think overall, he needs a lot of experience. He needs a lot of good experience."

Is he better gaining that experience here than in triple A?

"He can be more relaxed in triple A than he would be here," Manuel said.

So... what are the advantages of Brown being here?

"Advantage?" Manuel said, before laughing. "Getting time in the big leagues. Getting more money. More meal money."

templin: Do you think RAJ would be working the phone lines like this if he didn't already know precisely what kind of payroll criteria he's working with? Clearly, he has been given the green light to take on a specified amount of salary.

I spent all morning in the waiting room of a auto repair place smelling grease, watching daytime TV and reading BL on my phone (I can read it but can't post). Today's threads have been vastly entertaining. I am amazed that anyone believes any of these rumors, but the reactions have been priceless. Thanks for help taking the sting out of a very expensive repair bill.

I wouldn't move Dom for Pence. However....

some_text

"Bottom line, if Rollins, Utley and Howard show up in the playoffs, the Phils are having a parade. If they don't, the Phils are losing no matter who our RF is."

Could not agree more.

bap You are, of course, right about Rube having general salary guidelines. That's probably the hold up. Rube is looking for salary coverage similar to Oswalt (11MM) to do the deal for Pence. I can't believe the Houston Owner's didn't take old Ed to the woodshed after giving us Oswalt and $11MM for essentially J A Happ. I wonder if Ed's sufficiently recovered from that corporal punishment to do it again? Sometimes you know something's bad but you do it anyway.

My sources just twidled me that the holdup on the Pence deal is Ed Wade not willing to throw in Jason Michaels.

"Bottom line, if Rollins, Utley and Howard show up in the playoffs, the Phils are having a parade. If they don't, the Phils are losing no matter who our RF is."

Yeah that pretty much says it all.

"When the Pence deal happens... sounds like there's a good chance Brown goes down to get regular ABs at AAA instead of getting just pinch hit ABs for the next month. At least that's my read from some of the beat writer tweets tonight regarding Charlie's thoughts on Dom's development."

Will Schweitzer vindicated?

@ GTown

Common misconception. That's what caused a hole in the Andes that was filled with water over time. Now it's Lake Titicaca. The Grand Canyon was caused by one of Brown's ancestors slamming his bat in frustration after a strikeout. Needless to say, no one dared strikeout the ancestor afterward...

"Rube is looking for salary coverage similar to Oswalt (11MM) to do the deal for Pence."

Agreed. RAJ probably wants Houston to cover whatever they would have to cover to keep us under the luxury tax threshold. And Wade probably said something like, "If you want us to do that, you're going to have to include Domonic Brown."

Just a hunch, but it seems like a very plausible scenario.

MG: Hardly. The Phillies have been better off w/ Dom in RF than they were w/ Francisco in RF.

MG: Yeah, hard to call it vindication when that troll believes Dom is already a bust and is worse than what we've got. He'd only leave the starting lineup because the Phils traded for an All-Star. And he'd only go down because the Phils care more about his development than Mayberry or Francisco.

Heyman thinks Rube is trying to get a 3rd team interested to take Dom Brown.

Sounds like Houston isn't high on Dom.

I just read through the game thread last night because I was still too disgusted to do it this morning. I'm not sure if the best part was the Giants troll making random appearances, or the fact that, if not for his handle, you would not have been able to tell he was a troll based on the similarity of his comments to pretty much everything else being said by the regulars here.

I would be surprised if Rube gives up more to get Hunter Pence, then he did to get either Halladay or Lee.

Sounds ridiculous, to me.

All of this, and if Howard, Utley, Rollins and Ibanez don't pick it up against SF pitching, its not going to matter anyway.

These rumors are going in 30 different directions. This worse than Doc in 2009 because at least then, we all knew Doc was a musy have. Pence is a good player, but all these deals soind like massive overpays.

Just tell when a deal is made or isn't made and I'll (over)react then. Can't take this anymore. Is it time for Doc to take the mound yet?

•The Phillies currently have no intention of putting Brown in a deal for Pence, tweets Buster Olney.

Asomugha!?!??!


IS RUBE RUNNING THE EAGLES NOW????

Iceman: Good observation.

Anyone with a weather forcast?

Anybody else think its going to be weird to see Doc pitch the top and bottom of every inning tonight?

Can we please one last time get upton and a f
Left bullpen pc from Tampa with package excluding
Brown. Hunter sucks look at stats. And against giants
He really sucks. Rube don't be a douche and get it done
For cryin out

Anyone think that maybe all of this smoke and mirrors about Hunter Pence is a smoke screen to cover up the real deal Ruben is working on. Our division rival is hunting for the same type player the Phillies are (right handed outfielder). Rueben is such a poker player with deals....seems very plausible to me that he is trying to 1)rise up the asking price for the Braves on Pence and 2) keep up the hysteria on Pence so no one pays attention to the deal he gets on a player no one thought of. Reminds me of 2009 when we got Lee.... All of this same craziness was going on then (seemed a little more plausible at the time b/c it was the best pitcher in baseball) and in the end, the price for Doc was too high at that time and they Got Cliff and NOBODY knew it was going down until it was done and everyone was like Cliff who????? I do think Pence was the player they initially wanted but to give up prospects/players they would not give up for the best pitcher in baseball is a little much. As it has been said previously....you can add the best bat available, if Ryan, Chase, Jimmy do not hit in the playoffs, does not matter who is in the 5th spot of the lineup. Fun watching everything today though!!!

Buster, why don't you tweet us when something actually happens?

Jayson Stark reports that Hunter Pence visited this site and is now afraid of joining the Phils thus he's trying to stop the trade, don't be surprised if he runs in the outfield wall.

Nice to see that Brown is now the second coming of Lou Brock

Asomugha to the Eagles? It's just like Cliff Lee to the Rangers . . . Yankees. . . . no, it's the Phillies!

I now believe that anything is possible. Jeff Kemp for MM and a bag of baseballs. Get it done, Rube.

Tits on a bull are more useful than Buster Olney.

Can Asomugha play right field?

Wow, if Asomugha can come out of nowhere to sign with the Eagles, I wouldn't be surprised if Matt Kemp is a Phillie by tomorrow night.

Anyone think that maybe all of this smoke and mirrors about Hunter Pence is a smoke screen to cover up the real deal Ruben is working on.

Posted by: AM | Friday, July 29, 2011 at 06:28 PM

It'd be nice if it was Kemp! haha

Brown isn't Brock, but Pence isn't even Von Hayes.

It'd be nice if it was Kemp! haha

Posted by: 3r0ck | Friday, July 29, 2011 at 06:36 PM

Wait, Jeff Kemp, like aksmith said?

Looking back, the Braves trade of Escobar for Gonzalez still seems idiotic. Maybe the Phils can sign Pujols in the offseason and platoom him at first with Howard.

aksmith: while I agree ancient a-hole Jeff Kemp is a vast improvement over fringe major leaguer Hunter Pence... I prefer his cousin Matt.

How tall is Asomugha? We still could use a bat at 3rd.

aksmith: while ancient a$$h0le Jeff Kemp probably still has some pop, I prefer his distant cousin Matt.

From a thread on an Eagles blog in reaction to the signing of NNamdi Asomugha:

- Is this the part where we trade Asante for Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and JC Ramirez? I’m confused.

- I hear we get Hunter Pence too.

- We gotta make cap room for Bryz first.

Good stuff!

Back to the game:

Glad Mini Mart is riding the pine. Bottalico says the Phils are possibly trying to build some confidence in Brown. Yeah, that's it. Really grown a bit tired of his cliches, over reactions, and general 'blah' commentary.

MG: It's no worse than today's Beerleaguer threads (& I type that w/ full guilty knowledge of my own participation in the very same).

"Eagles sign Asomugha"

Which variety of small, furry animals did he torture to deserve that?

MG, Ricky Bo thinks that McCutchen's going to be a nice player in the future...in the future.

McCutchen's 2011 stats:

OPS/wOBA: .865/.381
OPS+/wRC+: 142/143
SB: 16
bWAR/fWAR: 5.6/5.0
13.2% BB rate, 16% SO-rate, .204 ISO
Oh, and he's apparently a pretty good centerfielder.

Bottalico is starting to earn a "moron" reputation, as far as I'm concerned. McCutchen is a stud NOW, and he's 24. Can the Phillies trade Brown/Cosart/Singleton for him?

Please?

I don't even pay attention to Ricky Bo anymore. I much prefer either Chris Coste or Brad Davis.

How come the phillies home grown players never seem to a position?
Maybe it's a development problem.

Fat - I wouldn't say that Bottalico is a moron. None of the Phils' broadcasters are in that category.

He just seems to give a lot of vanilla commentary that is 'matter of fact.' The annoying thing is that he has seemed to have shifted to more of the hysterical overreaction shtick at times.

big red strikes again! Glad to keep brown. Comfortable trading minor leaguers for pence or better

MG, maybe moron was a bit of a stretch, but his commentary is starting to mirror that of random callers on WIP.

MG, it would be nice though if the Bottalicos of the world were, in not ahead of the curve, at least on it. One needn't be a baseball insider to know that McCutchen is having a tremendous, MVP-caliber season.

Ricky Bo's commentary after last night's game was very level headed, especially for him.

No way was Howard interfering with the runner.

Utley?

Fat - Yeah he is especially after the loss last night to the Giants. Its the end of July and the Phils lost 2 out of 3. Fair amount is going to change by Oct (if they even play) one another.

Error was E4 because of the backhanded flip-toss of a throw. Great play to get to the ball, but an awkward and ugly toss to first.

Bucs look like a girls softball team. Wonder if they have chants and cheers.

Holy crap.


When did Howard's AVG get so low?? He's in Ibanez territory.

And Ibanez is washed up, won't be here next year, and doesn't have a $125 million contract.

Nice job, Jimmy.

How the hell is Dom Brown wearing long sleeves in 94 degree weather?

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