Game chat: Homestand opener in hands of Hamels

Lefties Cory Luebke (3-3, 2.57) and Cole Hamels (11-5, 2.71) toe the slab when the Padres and Phillies begin a sweltering-hot weekend set in South Philly. First pitch is 7:05 with game time temperatures near 100 degrees.

Regulars rising: These are the dog days, a time when the Phillies typically sputter, but the hometown nine has kept pushing the rock up the hill, managing eight-straight series wins. A lot of focus has gone toward unexpected surprises like Michael Martinez, Vance Worley, Antonio Bastardo and John Mayberry, and justifiably so. But as a result, the performance of several regulars has been overshadowed to some degree. Jimmy Rollins has been a key part of July, hitting .406 (26-64) with four homers in his last 14 games. Raul Ibanez is hitting .320 with four homers in his last 11 games. Chase Utley has reached base safely in 23-straight games. Ryan Howard has methodically taken over the league lead in RBI (74).

Trade talk: Nothing new. I'll remind everyone that Jim Salisbury suggested in a recent piece that Carlos Beltran is a very real possibility for the Phils. Salisbury rarely jumps into the hot stove fray, so his piece is an interesting clue to say the least. There are nine days until the deadline.

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Comments

[Old Phan]

Cole is dealing yet again.

[Fatalotti]

I really hope Cole Hamels sticks around long enough to take a run at Curt Schilling's 48 double digit strikeout games as a Phillie.

[whitey]

I guess Robin Roberts wasn't a strikeout pitcher?

[bay_area_phan]

The Phillies need 2 runs this inning or that 4.69 number of Fatalotti's is going to go down.

[Fatalotti]

BAP, it's been on my mind for about 3 innings now.

[EastFallowfield]

Roberts K'd 1871 in 3,739 innings.

[Old Phan]

3-1 doesn't do much for their run differential.

[Fatalotti]

Old Phan, it doesn't do much, but every little bit helps.

[bullit]

it is surprising robin wasn't on that list, since he pitched so many complete games.

[Old Phan]

Dog in, Cole out.

[Meyer]

KK is similar to RR.

[Fatalotti]

Cole was simply outstanding tonight. Now let's see if Madson has shaken all the rust off and is ready to reclaim his closer's role.

[Old Phan]

Fat, true.

[bay_area_phan]

I guess I'm not allowed to say our offense sucks now that we're averaging 4.6+ runs per game. But this has been a pretty pitiful display tonight.

[Fatalotti]

It's amazing that Robin Roberts led the league in strikeouts twice in a row, but never topped 200. Must've just been a different world of pitching back in the mid 50s.

[EastFallowfield]

Raul in for defense.

[Fatalotti]

EFF, I was shocked to see that as well.

[bay_area_phan]

I wonder how many times in his career Raul has subbed into the game in the 9th inning for defensive purposes. For that matter, I wonder how many times ANY 39-year old corner outfielder has subbed into the game in the 9th innng for defensive purposes. What a scathing indictment of Francisco.

[Zach]

By URZ, Raul has been the worst defensive left fielder in baseball and has failed to prevent more than twice as many runs as the next worst (Juan Pierre). Naturally, he's in as a defensive replacement.

[3r0ck]

Mad dog is nasty

[Andrew]

Good for Cole.

[EastFallowfield]

62nd win matches the total for the 1896 and 1947 seasons, and as good or better a total than in 35 other Phillies seasons.

[Meyer]

Get back to the cool boys and fans.

[Fatalotti]

Can anyone guess who is currently in the game for the Braves?

Hint: He appears in LOTS of games.

[BloodStripes]

As per the script. Nice win.

[David S]

This game is proof positive that we must trade Domonic Brown for Hunter Pence.

After all, how many hits did Brown have tonight?

[curt]

The real question is why BenFran was an offensive substitution for the first 8 innings.

[Rauls grandpa]

K-Rod is already fitting in with the new team; he has offered to kick Lucroy's father-in-law's azz for him.

[Get Rube A Beer]

I really hope they dont trade brown for any of these guys...Pence is good but not worth giving up brown

[awh]

"I guess I'm not allowed to say our offense sucks now that we're averaging 4.6+ runs per game. But this has been a pretty pitiful display tonight."

bap, I guess 3 runs off of someone who appears to be a good pitcher just isn't enough for some people. Check out the kid's (Luebke's) OPS against coming into the game.

[Fatalotti]

Another game for Hamels, another game with less walks plus hits than innings pitched. 3 hits and 1 walk through 8 innings. Wanna know how to succeed as a major league pitcher? It's not bearing down once runners get on, it's never allowing them to get on base in the first place.

[awh]

GRAB, other teams may be asking for Brown, but they wouldn't trade him for Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee when they were asked.

Why in the world would they give him up for Hunter Pence?

The funniest rumor I saw was that Alderson had asked for Brown in exchange for Beltran. If I were RAJ I would have laughed myself unconcious.

If Alderson is going to approach his job in that fashion, then I question how much of an upgrade he is from Omar Minaya.

[Fatalotti]

Luebke had some ridiculous numbers coming into this game. He's a good pitcher (or at least has been pitching well). He's got an elite strikeout rate this year (9.86/9), a good walk rate (2.71 BB/9) and a good groundball rate (44.1%).

Those are the earmarks of a good pitcher, and his xFIP (2.75) and SIERA (2.44) back that up. The fact is, the Phillies did a pretty good job against him (3 runs in 5 IP). It's the SD bullpen they went completely limp against.

[st]

their pen is outstanding. not going to do much vs them

[Fatalotti]

awh, it's not unprecedented for a team to give up a major league ready top prospect for a 1/2 year rental.

Just last year, the Rangers gave up Smoak for a half year of Lee, and two years ago the Brewers gave up LaPorta for a half year of Sabathia.

It's not crazy for Alderson to inquire about Brown.

[Meyer]

Ruiz with a post game interview. Give this guy a break before the playoffs and start the 3rd string catcher Wilson Valdez once in a while.

[Get Rube A Beer]

awh, I don't think they will but every rumor I'm reading now suggests Dom...Just would hate to see it happen.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Alderson should be asking for Brown. He's just not going to get him.

[st]

because that's who all the teams want. he won't be traded

[awh]

Fatti, based on the heat index factor, I'll give the offense a little break for not scoring later in the game, especially against a bullpen that has a slash line of .226/.304/.316 against.

They did what they had to do, and Cole Hamels dealt another gem in oppresive heat - just like St. Louis last year.

[Get Rube A Beer]

the fan in me hopes Cole wins the Cy Young but the business side of me hopes he doesn't so it won't be as difficult to lock him up as it would be if wins the CY, is a WS MVP and is showing how much he's really improving.

[Fatalotti]

Ricky Bo wants to give up Brown and Worley for Pence.

Ricky Bo, you lose.

[MG]

Hamels now on pace to 20 wins but he faces 2 tough challenges to win a Cy Young - He is on the same team as Halladay and Jurrjens & Kershaw have both had outstanding years so far.

[Old Phan]

Ricky Bo says he would trade Brown for Pence.

[3r0ck]

Ricky Bo wants to give up Brown and Worley for Pence.

Ricky Bo, you lose.

Posted by: Fatalotti

Ya, WTF is he smoking? Pass the bong man

[clout]

whitey: Roberts was the classic drop-and-drive overhand fastball pitcher. Tom Seaver and Curt Schilling also fit that bill, with rising fastballs as their out pitches.

The reason there weren't more Ks in the 1950s is that hitters made more contact. Fewer swung for the fences and more had contact skills (and small-ball skills) than today's players.

[MG]

I absolutely believe the 'Phils are really interested in after Pence' unlike some of rumors that link them to Beltran. Put 0% stock in the continued Cabrera rumors.

[awh]

Fatti, Alserson is well aware of the Phils track record of not dealing Brown. Sure he can "inquire", but IMO it's foolish. Why bother, unless you think everyone in the Phils FO is going to have a collective stroke and make a foolish move.

Trying to get Pence or Beltran is going to be very tough because of the competition for the player, but that doesn't mean you mortgage your future for a 2-month rental (Beltran) or overpay for a guy who will probably make close to 10MM next season vs. Brown's MLB minimum.

Especially when you already have the best team in baseball. Sure, you always try to improve, but not at the expense of Brown.

[Fatalotti]

This "WIN NOW attitude, so we must trade for the top guy in the mix" is ridiculous. The Phillies, as currently contructed, ARE set up with probably the best odds in the majors to win the World Series. I'm all for a trade for Pence if we can keep some young, cheap, cost-controlled players like Brown and Worley, but this idea that we have to do "whatever it takes" to win the World Series this year is preposterous.

Fact is, if we do nothing at the deadline this year, we still have a fantastic chance of making it to and winning a World Series.

[Fatalotti]

awh, I agree with you that giving up Brown for Beltran would be foolish and highly unlikely.

Also, the problem with my two examples is that Beltran, while good, is no Sabathia of 2008 or Lee of 2010.

[clout]

Fata: Luebke is a classic finesse lefty who projects as a #3 or #4 and is having a marvelous rookie year so far.

He's sort of the Padres version of Worley in that he's performing far better than the scouting reports suggested. He was ranked the Pads 6th best prospect by BA pre-season.

[clout]

BTW, show of hands, how many posters here think Brown will have a far better career than Pence?

If not, then why the emotional collapse over a suggestion of that trade? And if so, what's your evidence? Cuz you're a Phillies fan?

[denny b.]

"Fact is, if we do nothing at the deadline this year, we still have a fantastic chance of making it to and winning a World Series."

And still be wonderfully set up to win it all next year too.

The best moves this team could make are activating Lidge, Oswalt, Polanco and Contreras from the DL.

But if they can make a good move, without mortgaging 2012 and 2013, then go for it. Which means Brown and Worley are off the table for anyone.

[Get Rube A Beer]

I think Brown will have a bigger numbers in some years but I don't think Brown will be as consistent as Pence has been. 25 hrs 3 straight years is pretty impressive.

[Fatalotti]

Clout, you're asking the wrong question:

Pence, even though he's young, is still 5 years older than Brown. And he will also make ~$9 M more than Brown next year. And if you deal Brown, you just gave up a cheap cost-controlled outfielder who projects to be a pretty good ballplayer for a 5 year older above average ballplayer who is only under control for 2 more years, is a lot more expensive....and you would still need to fill an OF vacancy next year...presumably with someone who will cost millions more than Brown and will not be as young as Brown, i.e. won't be under team control for as long as Brown would have been.

[Fatalotti]

And why does us wanting to hang on to Brown hang on the contingency that he has a "far better career"?

[Kutztown Fan]

I'm stuck in traffic, trying to get home after the game. Brutal heat, but the fans still stayed until the 9th.

Some guy sitting behind me must read Beerleaguer. Didn't shut up the entire game, talking about possible trades (all discussed here) and even referenced the "baby aces." I think the people next to him wanted to smother him slowly and pleasurably to death. I know I did.

BTW, lots of fun to watch Cole when he's on his game.

[clout]

Fata: All true. But, for argument's sake, let's say you have a team that's going to be a contender for one more year and then rebuild for the next 4 years. Would you take a guy just hitting his peak years who's already proven he's a very good player? Or would you hang on to the rookie who has no chance of being a better p[layer than Pence next season and hasn't proven that he'll ever be better than Pence?

[Fatalotti]

The demise of Dan Uggla's bat were greatly exxagerated. He still lots of room for improvement, but he's got an .840 OPS since June 17th, and hit a game winning HR tonight.

[Dukes]

Went to Cots Baseball Contracts just for fun. The Braves have some steals on their roster and no contracts that could buckle them, at least for now. Even Lowe is only 15 million next year. McCan is an absolute steal through 2013, Hudson is 9 million per.

[They Call Me King Of The Bop]

hib to the jib

[Kutztown Fan]

Wait... Clout wants to argue? Who'd have thunk it?

[awh]

"Just last year, the Rangers gave up Smoak for a half year of Lee, and two years ago the Brewers gave up LaPorta for a half year of Sabathia."

Fatti, I thought I'd address the above comment directly:

The two examples you cite above were trades done by teams who were desperate for pitching, and traded "a major league ready top prospect for a 1/2 year rental" for pitchers who were acknowledged at the time to be among the top 5 - 7 pitchers in the game - that is REAL difference makers (and they were).

The 2008 Brewers don't make the playoffs without Sabathia, and the 2010 Rangers don't make it to the WS.

Hunter Pence and Carlos Beltran will not be the difference maker for the Phillies that Sabbathia and Lee were for the Brewers and Rangers.

[awh]

Also, Fatti, both of those trades were done in early July, so their respective teams had them for longer than just 2 months.

[agroupofletters]

clout how can you say he has no chance at being better than Pence next year. there's at least a 30/70 chance that Dom will figure out how to hit inside fastballs and start crushing ML Pitching...I'll admit it's not certain by any means, but definitely not "no chance"

[awh]

Fatti, I missed your acknowledgement basically agreeing with my post above.

We're cool.

[clout]

name-changing-poster: Well, I shouldn't say "no chance." There's always a chance. But if anyone wants to bet me that Brown has a better season than Pence in 2012, the line forms to the right.

[clout]

BTW, just to be perfectly clear, I'm NOT advocating trading Brown for Pence. I'm just saying the posters who dismiss it as lopsided or not worth consideration are idiots.

I happen to agree with awh that Pence won't be the difference between winning the WS or not. That's all about luck and hot streaks. And they surely don't need him to make the playoffs.

[David S]

Ignoring the fact that Brown is significantly cheaper than Pence over the next few years, allowing the Phillies to go out and pay other good players (and that trading Brown would leave Ibanez's .307 wOBA in the lineup), there is some evidence that Brown may have a better career.

Brown was a better ranked prospect than Pence ever was (the highest Pence was ever ranked was #38, as compared to #15 and #4) and Brown's minor league stats are more impressive, in that he hit roughly the same OPS as Pence did at the same age, but 2 levels higher. In his age 21 season Brown put up a .880 OPS between A+ and AA, while Pence was putting up comparable numbers at A-(.886). And in Brown's age 22 season, he put up an .980 OPS between AA and AAA, while Pence was putting up a .999 season between A and A+.

None of this guarantees that Brown will be a better player. But it is evidence.

[Dukes]

When Brown stops swinging like he's playing wiffle ball on the beach he'll be better than Pence. The question is whether or not that will happen. I've never seen somebody miss squaring up so many pitches right over the plate as Brown does (well, other than Raul when he's in one of his slumps).

[whitey]

Ricky Bo isn't the bulb in the bunch. Its been down hill since Johnny Marz, RIP

[awh]

clout, my desire to hang on to Brown really has nothing to do with the evaluation of their respective talents or a comparison of the two players.

I acknowledge and agree with you that right now Pence is the better player, and probably will be next year.

My reluctance to trade Brown is based more on these factors:

1) I believe the Phillies are good enough, or close enough already, to make the playoffs - which are a crap shoot anyway. And how much does Pence instead of Brown really increase the team's chances of winning the crapshoot? (The best team in baseball did not win the WS last year. They didn't even win the NL pennant.)

2) Brown will make a lot less than Pence the next 2 years, and give the team a lot more financial flexibility to re-sign/extend Hamels and get other things done, maybe even do something with Oswalt if he wants to stay (and he's healthy).

3) Brown will be cost controlled for the next 5 years, and it's possible he could become as good as Pence is now, so the above referenced financial flexibility is, IMHO, more important for competitiveness after 2011 than Hunter Pence will be.

[MG]

I would still rather see them pick up a bullpen arm who could sign into the closer's role next year if Madson departs.

[David S]

"the rookie who has no chance of being a better p[layer than Pence next season"

May I borrow your crystal ball?

And if the FO thinks that Brown for Pence straight up is a good idea, I'd be okay with that. What I dislike is people demanding the trade because of their impatience with a young player's development, their idea that the move will guarantee the Phillies a WS win and their refusal to admit that as constructed, the Phillies are still really d@#$ good.

[awh]

MG, agree.

[Meyer]

Beltran or bust. Gillick will make the announcement in his HOF speech.

[CJ]

We should not consider Brown for Pence. It's idiotic to consider it.

Domonic Brown was better than Pence at both AA and AAA... while playing a year or two younger at each level.

Brown is 5 years younger than Pence and more likely to get better over the next couple seasons while Pence is more likely to decline as he gets older.

Brown won't even reach arbitration for a couple of years while Pence will soon be making in excess of $10M.

If you believed this team will suddenly fall apart in a year... maybe you consider the deal (although I still don't)... but that would be an idiotic belief.

[Cyclic]

What was Cole's game score?

[templin]

Dukes,
Check out the Bravo's total payroll over the last few years. Since they've been sold, and no longer have Turner behind them, their business model has regressed to small market, which Atlanta without Superstation status or a corporation to eat financial loses is. Next year Uggla gets an extra 4mm, McCann 2mm (still a steal) and Prado and Jurrjens go to Arbitration and will get about 7MM raises each. McLouth is due 4mm although there is a buy out. That adds up to 24mm added to an 87mm payroll they already can't afford. This is a team that had a 103mm payroll in 2003. Their best days, financially are behind them.

[clout]

CJ: Let's make a bet. You tell me how many years going foward the Phillies will be contenders for the playoffs starting in 2012 onward.

[clout]

David S: You don't need a crystal ball. Just make a bet with me that Brown will have a better season in 2012 than Pence.

[Bob]

Saw most of the game on muted TV at a restaurant. Hamels looked like a beast from what I could tell. I'm trusting no "Cole is soft" comments tonight on BL?

[GTown_Dave]

I was at the game so maybe I missed something, but it appeared as if Charlie brought Ibañez in a a defensive replacement for Francisco in the 9th. Not that I necessarily disagree -- Francisco is blundering clod beyond hope of redemption -- it's just a sobering sight to see.

Also, I agree wholeheartedly w/ Chooch RE: Hamels' performance tonight: "Hee dee a gray yob." Yes, Chooch. Quite.

[CJ]

clout: "CJ: Let's make a bet. You tell me how many years going foward the Phillies will be contenders for the playoffs starting in 2012 onward."

From 2012 until the end of time? I'll say 193 years of contention in the 299 years we have remaining. We'll require either huge advances in aging science or a time machine to see whether I'm right.

The Phils have entered a new stratosphere. Like the Red Sox and Yankees, they'll be expected to compete every year... and will certainly be in the hunt during Dom Brown's career in more years than they won't.

[MG]

CJ - Yeah as long as they have the sellouts because the Phils don't have TV revenues the Red Sox/Yanks have.

[CJ]

Why would anyone make a trade based only on who will be better next season?!?

[The Truth Injection]

clout: For the bet with CJ how are you defining the team being a contender?

[goody]

Cyclic: 81 Game Score.

[DH Phils]

clout: I'll bet you the Phillies finish above .500 every year from 2012 through 2020, and make the playoffs 6 out of the 9 years.

[David S]

Clout: Okay. I'll bet 20.00 dollars that Brown will have a better season than Pence. You bet 200.00 dollars. Since there's "no chance" that Brown will be better than Pence next year, it should be an easy 20 dollars.

[goody]

Box score oddity: Ruiz,Utley,RFD each with their 12th double.

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, newer thread