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Saturday, July 23, 2011

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I'll be pissed if they trade Brown for Pence. If Brown couldn't land Halladay, I really don't think Pence is worth more.

Brody Colvin being pulled after 3 innings with 0 runs and 1 hit... Singleton, Colvin and 1-2 others for Pence, or are we waiting on an approval from Beltran, takes 24 hours, or is it the Padres, since they are in town OR since Oswalt looked good, is Worley part of a deal for Pence or to Minesota for Cuddyear. My guess

Threshers reported a groin strain and that Colvin was pulled as a precaution.

According to the Phils' post game radio show, Colvin was pulled due to a "minor" groin strain.

Dammit. One minute too slow.

Would like to see Pence in a Phillies batting order. Not sure I'd want to give up either Worley or Brown. I'd be OK with multiple top minor-league prospects. Pence is a known commodity. You never know if any of the prospects will ever pan out.

Top prospects, particularly pitchers, should be barred from getting injured during a minor league game in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline.

GTown, any sign of those 2 gymnasts or teh bourbon rain out your way?

Dodgers/ Nats is the only thing left to watch. Jerry Hairston with a GS in the 9th. Vin Scully is good background. He informs that Nats relievers are worst in MLB at allowing inherited runners to score but, the problem is there are no runners for the Dodgers since the 4th inning.

Not even ghost runners, I suppose.

Worley, Singelton, Biddle, (any player in AAA)

That's my deal for Pence.

thanks guys.

Hugh: In this heat? Hell no. Maybe if the game had been in San Diego ...

Fair enough Dave. New hot weather treat? Filo dough apple pie, vanilla ice cream and Makers Mark. That'll cool you off, give you some energy and, make you not give a sh!t about the heat. I promise. Share it with the gymnasts.

The Phils do enough crazy stuff that I don't think we can fully discount the possibility that they would trade Brown, but I would be shocked if the prospect they wouldn't move for Halladay or Oswalt is moved for an above average, but not great OF. I wonder if this is just some old fashioned gamesmanship - a little misdirection.

Hugh: Sounds good to me. I do believe I'll give it a try.

I remember an argument that I had with one of the Beerleaguer "experts" in which they couldn't fathom how I could be against trading Domonic Brown, but still upset that his premature promotion to the big leagues has hurt his trade value.

...and now here we are with a rookie OF that is only the starting point of negotiations to trade for a three month rental of Beltran or a few years of Hunter Pence.

If Brown had spent a significant portion of this season raking in AAA and working on the holes in his game, what would his trade value be right now compared to what it is today? Has his on-the-job training and the premature start of his service clock been worth it, for 2010 and beyond?

I rarely feed the trolls, but...

1. His trade value is irrelevant because the Phils aren't dealing him.

2. His trade value is still so high that he's still the first player any team wants.

3. Only an idiot believes that his trade value would be higher by not having success at the major league level.

CJ: I always know when I'm speaking to an internet nerd when I read words like "trolls". Seriously, you're a grown man. Write like one.

1. No one's trade value is irrelevant. See the formerly untouchable Kyle Drabek.

2. His trade value appears to be significantly lower than it was this past winter. Yes, he is still desired, but the quality of what we'd get in return has taken a nose dive, unless you believe that a year of Doc is somehow equivalent to three months of Carlos Beltran.

3. I'm not even sure what your point is. Certainly, his trade value would be higher IF he were ready for major league pitching and IF he could field his position respectably. However, as I've said many times and as it has been demonstrated on the field all season long, the young prospect is not ready and has been promoted too soon. He has not had success at the major league level, and therefore his trade value is not higher, it is significantly lower.

As for whether or not he's worth trading for Pence, Clout hit the nail on the head. For anyone who's willing to bet that Brown will outperform Pence over the next three seasons, please message me with your wager and Paypal information. I'll gladly take that bet.

Brown + prospects not named Singleton for Pence is a no-brainer. Including Worley in the deal would be pure stupidity.

I'm confused how did we get to the whole "who will be better?" Pence v. Brown?

Someone want to help? Don't teams 'usually'( I know someone will mention "That one time") make a trade in order to fill a position of weakness? Don't then they look to trade away something that they have too much of?

It seems to me that Brown and worley for pence doesn't really address the problem because doesn't that mean pence is still just a rental? Since starting next year we still need to fill an outfield spot?

and Will. Question. Do you have some sort of plug-in that rings an alarm in your house anytime someone on BL mentions Brown and potential within 5 words of each other? It seems to be the only time you pop in.

Pence is under team control through 2014, I believe, so he wouldn't be a rental.

I'd argue that trading Brown would be trading something we have too much of: 4th OF. I like our chances in the post season with Ibanez/Victorino/Pence and I like our chances in 2012 with Pence/Victorino/Mayberry. Brown in place of Pence is a gamble.

Ideally, they could move Singleton and go into 2012 with Victorino/Pence/Brown, but by this point, Brown would have to demonstrate that he deserves to start over Mayberry at the major league level, which he absolutely has not. For all the hype and hyperbole, Mayberry has been Brown's offensive equal and his defensive and baserunning superior.

Keeping Worley and moving Brown allows Amaro to decline Oswalt's option and use the money to retain Rollins or extend Hamels. Replacing Worley's performance via free agency would be a greater expense than replacing what Brown offers as a corner OF.

Course Mayberry looks more polished than Brown. That's because he has had 4 years at AAA an some MLB exposure for 3 years. He has had time to polish himself up. RAJ was hesitant on bringing(Brown) up in the first place. Could of have been because he didnt want to expose his weakness an possibly drop his value. Or it could have been that he didnt want to lower his young future OF morale. No one will ever now except RAJ an the Phils top brass. If we sign another OF someone will have to go. The question is who will be the player down the line Brown or Mayberry.

*Who will be the better player Brown or Mayberry down the line i meant*

"I always know when I'm speaking to an internet nerd when I read words like "trolls". Seriously, you're a grown man. Write like one."

cute. cute insult.

Yes. Let's keep Ibanez, he of the -1 WAR and the 90 wRC+ (.703 ops, 288 obp). Brown has been so much better than Raul THIS YEAR, not to mention his improvements going forwards. He's raw, but one of the top-rated prospects in baseball, and this year his offense is 5% better than league-average, as opposed to Raold, who's 10% below-average. We can lose Worley though I'd rather not, but really, an outfield of Mayberry, Vic and Brown would be a tremendous improvement over Ibanez, I'm sorry, but saying you'd rather see Ibanez in a postseason game than Brown is one of the most stridently wrong and boneheaded things I've read on here in a while. If we can't get Pence without Brown, he's not worth it because, in general, trading away your top prospect, who is contributing at the major-league level, is stupid.

Of course I'd rather see Brown than Ibanez, but it's a moot point. We're stuck with Raul and his salary until the end of the season. If you're a believer in reverting to career norms, he's due to go on a hot streak (something Raul has done throughout his career).

Trading away your top prospect for a player who is as good as Brown projects to be seems like a no-brainer. I'd like to be in a position to win in 2011 - 2014 rather than to gamble on Brown's long term potential. It may look like a poor deal in retrospect, but it gives the Phillies a better shot at several championship seasons in the immediate future than not making the deal. It's not dissimilar to the Bourne for Lidge and Gonzalez/Outman for Blanton deals. Looking back on both, we got the short end of the stick, but we also got a World Championship, which doesn't exactly happen everyday in Philadelphia. The window isn't going to stay open forever.

I'd be thrilled to move Singleton and Colvin for Pence if they'd do it, but if the choice is losing Worley or Brown, I choose to lose Brown.

Does anyone really believe this team needs to trade for a Hunter Pence-type hitter to win in the playoffs?

It's not whether or not you think Brown will ever be as good as Pence (impossible to know). It's why you think they should bother taking that risk in the first place. They are absolutely rolling. Why would you do something like this if it means trading a guy you have refused to trade for years?

This team is riding or dying on what the starters do in the playoffs. A bullpen arm would help solidify their pitching advantage over the rest of the league. The offense is good enough and it doesn't need Hunter Pence.

Iceman: The offense wasn't good enough against playoff-caliber pitching last post-season, and that was with Jayson Werth in the lineup.

The bullpen is fine for a post-season roster (Lidge, Madson, Stutes, Bastardo, Kendrick).

What we need is a right handed bat. With the current lineup, I fear that we're the 2001 Mariners.

I'm a big Hunter Pence guy. I watched him from his first pro days in the NY-Penn League to now an always knew he'd be special. And to see him in a Phillies jersey would be awesome.

That being said, I'm not sure what I'd deal for him. I've always been big on Brown and I think he's going to be something special. As people have said, however, can he match Pence for the next three years?

My big question there is this -- can he be close? If so, then is it worth the trade? Pence is likely going to be getting more than $10M next year in arbitration. Brown won't be making close to that. And Pence will likely keep going up. Does that hamper keeping Rollins? Others?

I wouldn't personally trade Worley. He's got something that I really like and he's one of those guys I'd really like to stay with this crew of pitchers if he can keep it up.

But, does Worley keep it up or does he pull a J.A. Happ and not work out so well? I dunno. I just personally like having that feeling that the Phils are going to stay in everything when it's Halladay, Lee, Hamels or Worley. At least for now.

Pence is special though. He's a great talent and would give the Phils that right-handed hitter with pop. I just hope Ruben can find a way to fleece Ed Wade on this one.

Will- The argument that the offense 'wasn't good enough' in the playoffs last year is just a myth that has been perpetuated on BL by morons who want to re-write history. Timely hitting, sure, that was a problem. But the Giants' aces out-pitched ours, and their bullpen was deeper. That's what happened. The Phils outscored them for God's sake.

Putting aside the fact that your premise for 'needing' Pence is flawed to begin with, the very fact that you would make a decision such as this one (giving away Brown and the farm for Pence) based on what happened in one 7-game series in which all of the six games were close (aside of the blowout they won in Game 2) is stunningly stupid. Anything can happen in a 7-game series, especially when both teams have fantastic starting pitching. The Braves have great starters. The Giants have great starters. The Phillies have great starters. It is going to be close no matter what.

You have no idea what difference Pence would make in the playoffs, if any. It isn't worth the risk. The team is going as far as the starters carry them.

And if you 'fear' we have the 2001 Mariners with this offense, I don't know what you're afraid of. They scored over 900 runs that season, easily the most in the AL. Pick something else to wet the bed about.

This is the kind of thread that pulls Schweitzer from the shadows so he can continue his bashing of Brown. Of course he will deny that.

Brown has been mentioned in almost every trade rumor over the past few years, why would that stop now?

And Drabek wasn't untouchable, the Jays were asking for Drabek AND Brown during the summer of 2009. The Phils were only willing to part with one. They didn't give up brown to get Hallladay. Why would their thinking change now? Just my $.02.

Pence would be great because he can stay a Phillie for the next couple seasons (arbitration eligible through 2013 I believe). However, if it means trading Dom Brown and other high end prospects for him then I'm not too sure about it. I'd much rather do a rental on Beltran and give the Mets maybe Singleton and a low minors pitcher.

A lineup minus Werth an Ibanez who looks like he has aged 4 years. A possibly struggling Howard. Polanco possibly been hurt or playing hurt. Against playoff Caliber pitching Hmmmmmmmmmmmm!

The other teams have to play our playoff Caliber pitching as well.

Redburb: And for every opinion I have about Domonic Brown, there are three like yourself who post and whine about it and cite my name in the next five threads yet to come.

Drabek was most certainly classified as untouchable. Remember the Cliff Lee trade with Cleveland? Things change.

Iceman: The comparison to the '01 Mariners wasn't based on offense, but on the ability to dominate in the regular season and still get shut out of the World Series. Yes, it will all come down to great pitching (particularly if it ends up a Phils vs Giants rematch). We already have great pitching. Now, we need to upgrade the offense so we have a better chance of scoring against great pitching.

I want a 2011 World Series, which is why I want Hunter Pence. If it costs Domonic Brown, it's a steal. Any difference in 2012 salary between Brown and Pence would be offset by the difference in salary between Oswalt and Worley. If money is the argument, you should be against Worley for Pence as well.

If Brown becomes the next Darryl Strawberry, we get the short end of the stick. If he becomes a league average OF or worse (which seems to be a MUCH more likely outcome), the Astros get the short end of the stick. No matter how Brown's career turns out, the deal would greatly increase the chance at a 2011 World Series, which swings the pendulum strongly in favor of making the deal.

The best argument for not making the deal is betting on a lottery ticket... a suckers bet to be sure. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Well, the lottery metaphor is a little strained. Brown is already starting in the majors, so the Phils have already won that sucker's bet.

And Brown doesn't have to become Strawberry to lose that bet. He just has to approach Pence's output and the Phils lose because they paid millions that they didn't need to.


Listen folks: Drabek was untouchable until the Phils FO finally realized that they could use him to get a frigging HALL OF FAME pitcher in Roy Halladay. There is absolutely NO PARALLEL between that and the likes of trading for Hunter Pence (nice player, but he'll never even crack top 10 in MVP voting most likely) or Carlos Beltran. The fact that the Phillies would trade Drabek for the best pitcher in baseball has no bearing on whether they'd trade Brown for Pence.

Will, the point you are continually missing in your rants to dismiss Brown's potential going forward is this: it's not the comparison between Pence in the next 2.5 years vs. Brown in the next 2.5 years. It's the production Brown + whatever players you can afford to add to the team since you're saving so much money on Domonic Brown vs. Pence. Pence is an above average player (though, I don't think he's as good as he's been this year), but does having Pence and then having to fill an outfield spot that will cost a good deal of money outweigh the benefit of having Brown and the money saved by keeping Brown to make several other moves, including extending Hamels and/or Madson?

Also, Brown may never get there, but he projects to be better than Pence. Pence, coming into this year was a 115 OPS+ player. Pence has a BAbip of .378 this, yet had a BABip of ~.300 the 3 years before this. His walk rate is actually pretty laughable this year at 6.6%, and this strikeout rate of 20.3% is Howard-esque. And his ISO of .167 is the lowest of his career, by far, and has been dropping ever since his rookie season. Would he still be a nice player without the huge BAbip? Yes, but would people on here be clamoring for him as much? I doubt it.

Also, the notion that the Phillies with Pence suddenly become immune to the fantastic pitching of the Giants and Braves is just completely ridiculous. The pitching on those teams could shut us down even if we had Barry Bonds crica 2001. Hunter Pence is a nice player, but people need to stop overvaluing him.

Also, Will, if you're SO concerned that the Phillies need to do something big to have a better chance to win the 2011 World Series, you should really be clamoring for Carlos Beltran. He wouldn't require Worley or Brown, since the Mets have zero leverage with him, and he is 3 times the offensive player that Hunter Pence is.

But anything to get Brown off the team, huh?

"Brown is already starting in the majors, so the Phils have already won that sucker's bet."

If you're happy with his all around game as it is today, I suppose. Frankly, I think he's Mayberry at the plate and Lonnie Smith in the OF and on the bases. I guess I just have higher expectations for an untouchable prospect.

Yes, Drabek was traded for 1 season of Halladay. Trading Brown for 3 seasons of an everyday player that fills a number of needs is hardly unreasonable.

The emergence of Worley as a cost-effective piece for the foreseeable future offsets the loss of a cost-effective Domonic Brown. Personally, I'd rather have Pence at 10mil and Worley at league minimum than Oswalt at 16mil and Brown at league minimum, both from a talent and financial perspective...even if Brown does approach Pence in the next three seasons, which is highly questionable.

I'd never trade Brown for a rental like Beltran, but for Hunter Pence, you make the deal and go with Victorino/Pence/Mayberry for the next few seasons.

schweitzer seems to believe that Pence will guarantee victory in the post season crapshoot.

Schweitzer - When was it ever mentioned in the Lee I trade discussions that the Indians asked for Drabek? You can't possibly use that as evidence that Drabek was untouchable. The Jays wanted the two top Phillies prospects at the time. The Phillies were only willing to go with one, as evidenced by the fact that they traded Drabek during the offseason.

And I know you have some sort of complex, but I don't bring up your name without you popping up in threads bashing Brown. It's one thing to discuss trading a player if you truly feel that using that player will net you a playoff berth, NLCS berth, WS berth. It's another thing when you've repeatedly bashed this player over the course of two seasons and then constantly repeat the fact that trading him is a net gain.

Schwetzer, now you're engaging in revisionist history. The Phils did not pull the trigger on the Halladay trade until they knew he could be extended. They knew it was more than a one year rental.

Nice try.

Will, the Phillies didn't trade Drabek for one season of Halladay, they traded him fro 4. Part of the stipulation of the trade was that the Phillies were going to lock up Halladay immediately, which they did.

Again, there is NO PARALLEL between trading Drabek for a future HOFer in Halladay and trading Brown for a nice player like Pence.

And for the love of Odin, stop acting liek Pence is the next Joe DiMaggio.

Can't believe no one picked up on the Phils' wardrobe gaffe last night. Both teams were advertised as wearing uniforms from 1984, but the Phils were wearing the home jerseys from 1987-89, except they didn't even get *those* right. The 'P' in the '84 uniform didn't have the baseball stitches inside, while the one from '87-'89 did. So they mixed the different sized numbers with the wrong 'P'. Meaningless, of course, but a trifle annoying to someone who grew up tethered to this team in the '80s.

"If Brown becomes the next Darryl Strawberry, we get the short end of the stick. If he becomes a league average OF or worse (which seems to be a MUCH more likely outcome), the Astros get the short end of the stick."

Brown is much more likely to become a league average outfielder or worse? He's already a league average hitter (105 wRC+) with below average defense. Do you think he's the rare player that doesn't improve after his rookie year?

No way I'd trade Brown for Beltran, but for Pence it isn't a crazy move. However, I'd try to get Pence(if that's really who they want) for anything but Brown. I agree with the unnamed Scout in the Brookover article who says Brown probably has a better career than Pence(not sure those were the exact words).

Yo, newer thread

I would send Brown and for that matter Worley in a second for Pence. Let's not us forget last year. We were beat because we had no offense vs. the Giants. On can easily say that our offense this year is not as good. We NEED Pence, period!

As far as Worley. If you are involved in the stock market, you know when stock is up, you sell. Let's not forget Happ. Worley should absolutley be on the way out if that the asking price.

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