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Tuesday, July 19, 2011

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Rube is going to shock everyone and do nothing this year.

Cosart and Colvin has been very disappointing. May, on the other hand, has some serious strikeout stuff.

Cosart's numbers have been a little disappointing yet he is climbing prospect rankings b/c scouts like his potential.

We don't need anyone. We're still the best team in baseball when our guys perform, and when it comes down to it, I think they will.

That said, another bullpen arm would be nice (to replace Contreras). I would also welcome a good clubhouse guy in the vein of a Matt Stairs or Mike Sweeney.

I suggest Jim Thome.

Cyclic: You get a 5-man bench in the National League. Do you really think we can afford to carry 2 bench players with no defensive position?

"Raking" isnt the first word that comes to mind for a prospect who has been struggling to get his SLG above .400, but despite a slow start, Singleton is proving already at the age of 19 that he is no fluke and has a great eye at the plate.

Jiwan James and Domingo Santana's numbers look a hell of lot better than they did when I checked a few weeks ago, they both must be on hot streaks.

Since this is a prospect thread I'll repeat my response to Willard Preacher on Brown at the end of the last thread:

To be honest I haven't seen much improvement there (ball in on his hands), other than he's more inclined to take those pitches than he was when he first came up.

Again, like the glove, this is an experience thing. I'm certain he's aware of it and working on it.

His strengths are that he doesn't miss many mistake pitches and he's got a good eye and will take a walk. If he can learn how to hit the inside, hands-high fastball and lay off the breaking stuff just off the outside of the plate, he'll hit .300 someday IMHO.

me: "they both must be on hot streaks."

Jiwan James is .345/.463/.436 for July and Santana, who turns 19 next month, has a .998 OPS in his last 10 games.

Getting Nunez and releasing Baez - I'm for it.

Getting a sharp stick in the eye and releasing Baez - I'm for it.

Getting three fungo bats, and a pitching screen for Baez would be a good deal

i've been saving these links for the new thread:

http://bottom-of-the-barrel.blogspot.com/2011/07/bill-conlin-joins-joe-morgan-as-member.html

for anyone who was interested in the recent Conlin article about Howard. this is from a blog i check out from time to time. the author is a really nice guy, pretty well informed, and often very funny.

http://crashburnalley.com/2011/07/19/ryan-howard-sitting-on-career-lows/

this is for JACK.

lorecore, Trout did a similar pace for 81 games at age 18 in A ball. It's safe to say if Santana keeps this kind of thing up, he'll be a top 10 prospect in all the minors next year. Of course, if is a prett big word in this context.

@phuturephillies is reporting that the Phils are in on Matt Kemp.

People should remember how young Santana is relative to his experience. Wouldn't he have just graduated HS if he was from the US?

I should clarify, Trout's entire 18 year old season was as good as DS's recent hot streak :)

I have been hearing about Matt Kemp all day too.. do you think its true?

I'm of the opinion that the Phillies can well afford to give up two of three from the mix of Singleton/Cosart/Colvin. Especially now that Polanco is down for the count, I don't see any way this team can expect to continue coasting without inserting another veteran position player onto the roster. A bullpen arm would be nice, but I'm more wary of the Phillies again failing to advance far enough in the post-season because of a wholesale lack of offense against top-tier pitching. Maybe they can't afford a genuine difference-maker, but can they pull enough strings to come up with "something better than what we've got", as Manuel puts it? I don't see why not.

I would take two fungo bats and a whiffle ball for Baez. Three fungo bats could be pushing it.

I would trade the farm for Matt Kemp.

And if you know me, you know I'm generally against dealing our top prospects. I'd do it for Kemp.

where is this Matt Kemp talk coming from?

i have a hard time believing Selig would let them trade him?

3 way deal, we send Francisco & Baez to LA for Kemp and then include Cosart and Singleton so they will send Broxton to the Braves so we can thump him in the playoffs again. Get it done Rube.

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
will be interesting to see if #mets insist on domonic brown for beltran. #phils, #giants, #braves 3 likeliest for carlos......giving up brown is a joke right?????

Don't know if it was discussed earlier, but Oswalt's supposed to throw a bullpen session in Chicago today

No way on earth would we give up Brown for two months of Beltran. Right, Rube?

Kemp = Domonic Brown in 2 or 3 years. Maybe we should go for it, but Brown is very inexpensive and should have very good production over the next 4 or 5 years, while Kemp will either be long gone or extremely expensive. Let's hold off on that trade, ok?

Jay: 6 years of Dom Brown for 9 weeks Carlos Beltran? I'd have to dust off my pitchfork and torch if that happened.

Dan: I believe in Dom Brown as much as anyone, but I doubt he's ever going to have a shot at being a 40/40 candidate playing CF.

Rosenthall reporting Phillies have 3 days to promote or release Jason Grilli.

Is he really throwing 93+?

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/grilli_coming_soon_to_a_team_near_you/5614702?new_post=true

JT: oh no! what would the Iron Pigs do without him?

I appreciate CrashburnAlley, but am i the only one who thinks that Bill Baer secretly hates the phillies? Practically every post on there is negative.

Jbird, could it create a hole in the Pigs Pen so big Baez would need to go fill it?

No way in hell Brown goes to NYM for Beltran. Doesn't pass the smell test.


I appreciate CrashburnAlley, but am i the only one who thinks that Bill Baer secretly hates the phillies? Practically every post on there is negative.

Posted by: agroupofletters | Tuesday, July 19, 2011 at 04:04 PM

Not every post. I've never seen anything negative posted about Saint Utley

agroup - i disagree. he just hates Howard. just kidding, mostly.

I mean, honestly, I don't think he hates anyone, but he must be the most boring person in the world, because all he does is look at stats. He seems to not care at all about anything but the numbers.

agroup - his mom's basement must not have a tv.

Bill Baer is a sabermetrics fan. In the world of sabermetrics, Chase Utley and his high OB%, great defense, superb baserunning, and good power mean a lot, especially at what most consider to be the 3rd or 4th most important defensive position on the field. Ryan Howard over the years has really been a one tool player playing at the least important position on the diamond. It's not surprising that someone like Baer would be lower on Howard then Utley He's not a Howard hater and certainly not a Phillies hater (I think he's been more excited by the Phillies pitching this year than anyone).

But, when the one tool Howard possesses (and has been elite at in the past) starts to fall off the table, it is a very real cause for concern. Howard is still a very good baseball player, and just like Ortiz, could experience a resurgence this year or next year and turn into a .950-.1000 OPS player, but right now, he's a 121 OPS+ player, when from 2005-2009, he was a collective 143 OPS+ player.

He did have a down year in 2008 in terms of OPS+, but rebounded in 2009 to have a fantastic year, so it certainly could happen again.

Conshy- Definitely not, he kills his time by burning through kleenex while studying sabrmetrics

nicely said, fatalotti (aka, the fat man).

Time to burn Fatalotti at the stake.

i don't think that there is anything that "the fat man" said that is controversial.

Of course he's obsessed with stats, Baer's website does very well as a niche, sabremetrics site. Why mess with what works.

The interesting thing about Howard, as I see it:

He's sriking out less this year than he really ever has. His career rate is 27.2%, but he's all the way down at 24.4%. That's very encouraging, but the discouraging part is how he's got there.

Howard is swinging at pitches outside of the zone over the last 2 years than he ever did before. Between 2005-2009, he was roughly swinging at 25-27% of pitches outside the zone. Last year, he swung at pitches outside the zone 33% of the time and this year, he's at 32%. And, astonishingly, his contact percentage on those pitchers is incredibly high given his career rates. Between 2005-2009, he was making contact with pitches outside the zone between 36-42% of the time. Last year, he made contact 48% of the time, and this year, he's all the way up to 57%.

His contact percentage at pitches in the zone has remained normal, so this is probably the reason why his HR/FB numbers and his general power has been declining.

In the past, he would swing at less balls, and hit less balls. Now he's swinging at more balls, and hitting more balls. While this may be a good tactic for a Juan Pierre or Ichiro Suzuki, guys with speed who hit to all fields and just need to get on base, this is probably not the best tactic for a power hitter who pulls mostly everything, and has a shift employed against him nearly everytime he hits.

Needless to say, balls out of the zone are probably the hardest to drive for power.

Yeah, Yeah, Yeah we get it. Chase Utley is the greatest thing since canned beer, and his decline the past couple of years is greatly exaggreated. Ryan Howard is overpaid, in decline, and will only get worse. Do we need to hear about it every day!

To go along with the above, Howard's swinging strike percentage, is also at a career low. He's become a much better contact hitter at pitches outside the zone, but he's making contact at pitches inside the zone at the same rate he always has pretty much, and he's swinging at pitches inside the zone at the same rate.

Really, what Howard needs to do is stop swinging at so many pitches outside the zone, and it might be better for him to not make contact on those pitches, as the next pitch might be a pitch he can handle that is inside the zone.

mike g - if you don't think that his recent slump and his year end paces warrant a discussion on the matter, what are you doing here?

Fatalotti and I see eye to on a lot of things. He/she gets my vote for best BLer.

Methinks that it's highly likely that Howard will improve his HR/FB%, and consequently his HR totals, in the 2nd half and the next few years.

mike g - apologies. obviously, there are other issues worth discussing. if you don't find the Howard discussion enticing, feel free to discuss something else.

bay - ya know what? i think i agree with you. i think THE FAT MAN (is it catching on yet?) is unfairly criticized here from time to time, even by the man JW himself. very reasonable and informative poster.

Mike G is a heretic. I mean I love Chase as much as the next guy, but the best thing since canned beer? That's just crazy talk. I mean its beer...in a can.

He understands a lot of the saber concepts I like to use, and explains them better than me too.

"Fatalotti and I see eye to on a lot of things. He/she gets my vote for best BLer."

I definitely have Fatalotti pictured as a "he," but mental pictures have a way of being woefully inaccurate. For the record, I've always had clout pictured as a kindly 75-year old grandma with lots of cats.

Mike G, Chase Utley is definitely in decline in some areas. His ISO has been in as much a precipitous decline as Howard's over the past few years. He was between .249 and .226 from 2005-2009, but hasn't topped .169 since. His LD% this year is frighteningly low (13%), but his walk rate is right at career levels and his K rate is well below career levels (has been moving downward for years).

He too, like Howard, has been swinging at more pitches outside of the zone, less in the zone, and making contact on pitches outside the zone more than he ever has in his career, which could be a reason why his power hasn't been as great as in years past.

He doesn't swing and miss much, but he's not swinging at as many good pitches as he used to, and swinging at a lot more bad stuff.

But, he still gets on a base at a great clip, though much of that is due to his ability to get hit by a pitch, since his walk rate has never been otherworldly.

Advanced metrics seems to indicate that his defense has gotten better over the last few years, but that's up for debate, as all defensive metrics are.

Neither Utley or Howard are the players they once were, and hopefully these signs of decline reverse course for both.

So our top 9 prospects are all in single A ball? Ugh. If Rube can turn any or all of them into Kemp, bless him.

I'm a he.

I could use some beer in a can right now

Every other reliever at LV has been given a chance why not Grilli?Oh he's one of those old guys there to fill the roster.Doesn't matter what his numbers are,just another AAA lifer,no need to give him a chance.

JT - About Grill, he has got to be a better option than Baez or Drew Carpenter and Grill works out, plus we get Adams or someone else. Then if Lidge/Contreras come back, we can always send down Herndon.

I would remiss if I didn't mention this lastly:

Howard AND Utley are both seeing FAR fewer strikes this year (and last year) than they ever did before.

Howard, between 2005-2009, saw strikes between 45-50% of the time. Last year, that number was down to 42% and this year, it's down to 40%.

Utley, during the same time frame, saw strikes 46-51% of the time. Last year, he only saw strikes 43% of the time, this year, it's a tick over 44%.

Matt, there are times when I wonder that myself. For the most part, I enjoy coming here because there are a lot of people here with an enormous wealth of baseball knowledge. However, that said, sometimes after spending time here, I have to remind myself that the Phils 24 games over .500 and in first place.

jr: You mean like Sardinha, Perez, Orr, Valdez?

And as far as my remarks about being tired of hearing about Chase Utley vs Ryan Howard, I was actually speaking more about Crashburn Alley than Beerleaguer.

where are these Kemp rumors?

mike g - you're right, it does tend to be on the pessimistic side here. yes, we should all be enjoying the ride and for the most part i think that we do. on the other hand, we think about what it takes to win a WFC and it's easy to piss and moan about our chances. then some people are very focused on the future and that is easy to complain about when you see signs of decline in some core players. i think that's the natural course of fandom, depending on what type of person you are and what mood you are in today.

James doesn't seem to have any real source for his Kemp rumor...I wonder if he just wanted to see the frenzy that would follow...

He is showing off at this point.

What I'm seeing in Utley is a guy who's hitting a lot of flares to left and weak flies to left center, rather than a guy who's turning on balls and yanking them down the line. I think we're seeing the consequences of the hip injury.

Slocs: Phuture Phillies tweeted them. Matt Kemp actually responded.

Marcus Thames released. Any interest?

Jbird, the tweet from Matt Kemp is from June 6th

oswalt throws pen. feels great. will throw another pen shortly and then a couple rehab outings. looking at early august

I don't see anybody on that list that is untouchable. How many times do you get a chance to win a World Series? Do what you have to do to win now.

Jeff. . . hmm. . . correct you are. oh well.

Strange no one else is saying anything about Kemp, but he is the type of player Rube would like another year of team control. I just don't but Beltran unless we are trading B-type prospects. However, he is aging and injury prone so I can see him fitting in with the DL-prone phillies. The thing attractive about Betran is he could go nuts in the post season like he did for the Lostros in the contract year.

“If our guys do what they’re capable of doing,” assistant GM Scott Proefrock said, “we’ll be tinkering around the edges if we do anything.”

In fact, the way Proefrock views things, the Phillies could be getting a lot of new blood around the deadline without having to pull the trigger on a single trade.

“I’ve said the last few days if we get everybody back healthy, even if it’s just five of the six, think about that from the state of the depth that we’d have back to Triple-A,” Proefrock said. “We don’t have to give up anything for that.”


Doesn't sound like a front office that's looking to do squat to me....let alone trade multiple prospects for Kemp. Don't get your hopes up on silly rumors.

Bowlcut, this is coming from the same office that said there's no way that they were going to trade for Cliff Lee last winter.

How's the working out for us?


Doesn't sound like a front office that's looking to do squat to me....let alone trade multiple prospects for Kemp. Don't get your hopes up on silly rumors.

Posted by: Bowlcut | Tuesday, July 19, 2011 at 05:29 PM

Yeah, 'cause this front office has always been up front about trade talk.

MLBTR hasn't mentioned M Thames yet.
Not interested anyway. He doesn't pass muster on the Cholly Doctrine. I.e., "I want somebody good. If we're going to get somebody, I want somebody good. I want somebody that's going to help us. I don't want to get what we've already got."

I look forward to 12 days of "there's no way X is going to happen" comments.

"About Grill, he has got to be a better option than Baez or Drew Carpenter."

As I recall, people also said that Carpenter had to be better than Herndon, and Zagurski had to be better than Romero, and Mathieson had to be better than all of them. So, actually, Grilli does NOT have to be better than Baez or Carpenter and, considering his age, recent major league numbers, and chronic inability to throw strikes, he probably isn't. On the other hand, there comes a point where a guy is so unrelentingly awful that you just have to try the next guy. Baez & Herndon have both passed that point -- although I have serious doubts that Grilli qualifies as "the next guy."

Thames was DFA'd 10 days ago when the Dodgers signed Juan Rivera. No thanks. Do people really think that yet another mediocre outfielder will improve this team, even incrementally?

Yo, new thread

Bowlcut, this is coming from the same office that said there's no way that they were going to trade for Cliff Lee last winter.

How's the working out for us?


Do you really think that a trend like that is going to continue forever?

Doesn't sound like a front office that's looking to do squat to me....let alone trade multiple prospects for Kemp. Don't get your hopes up on silly rumors.

Posted by: Bowlcut | Tuesday, July 19, 2011 at 05:29 PM

Yeah, 'cause this front office has always been up front about trade talk.

We'll see in a week and a half won't we.

I have to wonder why the Dodgers would give up the face of their team for even terrific Single A+ players.

Billingsly, Kershaw and Kemp are the entire nucleus of the Dodgers at this point. If any of them were to be traded I'd imagine it would have to be for a real haul of major league ready (mostly) talent.

However, if the Phillies are planning on saying goodbye to Mr. Roll and Mr. Ibanez after his season, he's fit really well in the lineup and bring a whole lot of production with him.

I am also of the opinion that you don't give up great prospects for just anyone. But for Kemp? It's not even a question.

i checked the Reading site- & saw these 2 OF's

Stephen Susdorf after 72 gms is hitting .336- 25 yo ( in Reading)
Michael Spidale is hitting.312 after 87 gms - 29 YO

Both have been in the Phillies system for at least 5 yrs

both look like pretty good hitters.. Wonder if there is any reason they are still down in the minors w-o a sniff?

spidale 3 yrs w- phila

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