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Saturday, July 30, 2011

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"Two scouts say 3rd player in Pence trade, RHP Josh Zeid, ready for bigs now in 'pen. "I'd kill to get Zeid," one says. #tradedeadline #MLB"

Scouts are named Ed Wade and Edwin Wade.

"Demoting Francisco, who figures to be non-tendered after the season, would kill his career."

I'd almost think the combination of trading three of the franchise's prospects for a new right fielder, and barely seeing the field over the last month, has killed Francisco's career.

I think you'll start seeing some folks in the OF dressed in camo's and orange hats soon.

His name is Hunter.

Just hopefully no shotguns are brought to the park.

It is a good time to be a philly fan..

We're only getting 80% of the value of the Pence trade because we're sending down Brown instead of benching Raul.

Our best lineup has Brown in LF and Pence in RF. But Raul is a veteran, so we have to put a worse team on the field. Awesome.

Yep, dumb.

I don't post here often but I'm a regular reader. I couldn't believe how BL jumped the gun on reporting that Brown was about to be traded yesterday. I come here for the well written, level-headed analysis, which sets BL apart from other blogs. Mass hysteria-inducing speculation is what the comment section is for. Obviously the trade deadline is a crazy time, and there's a ton of misinformation being spewed by anyone with a twitter account so I can forgive this momentary lapse.

On another note, I'm satisfied with the (actual) trade. I like the way it aligns the OF for 2012, and I can see Pence having some big moments down the stretch.

Rare Bee Glue: Yeah, that was my fault, not Jason's. I got caught up in Hot Stove mania yesterday and posted the story about Dom Brown maybe being part of the deal. In fairness, Jayson Stark and Jon Heyman are generally reliable sources, but I see your point. Thanks for reading.

Iceman -- Who stated Hunter Pence is a "bum"? Wow, sure wasn't me. All that I did was wonder if Pence was JMJ with a better BABIP.

b_a_p pointed out that we are getting better numbers than Dom (“…replacing a .247 average and .399 slugging pct. with a .280 to .300 average and a .470-.480 slugging pct…”) and Fata commented Pence’s BABIP (~.300) is probably unsustainably high, but we get a better defender.

Never knew what a “straw man argument”:

1. Definition for straw man argument:
A straw man argument is an informal fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position. To "attack a straw man" is to create the illusion of having refuted a proposition by substituting a superficially similar yet unequivalent proposition (the "straw man"), and refuting it, without .... More »
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strawman_argument

meant, but your unfounded accusation sure looks to have the makings of one.

Bye Bye BenFran. The Phillies version of Bobby Hoying.

Time is the only fair judge of any trade. But, this being the internet, let the speculation continue!!

Send Dom down, Mayberry has been running circles around him.

Has Amaro's managerial style been influenced by the Mounties - "We always get our man!" Sure seems like it.

Maybe a little too much Rocky & Bullwinkle as a kid and admiration of Dudley Do-Right? Personally I was always more of a fan of Snidely Whiplash.

You're dating yourself there, MG.

So Stark is reporting the Astros are sending $2M instead of $1M, and that the Phils have enough room for the "right" reliever.

MG- personally I see Amaro as the bully in the schoolyard in respect to Ed Wade.

Wade gets to school, arranges things in his locker, and as he shuts the door Amaro and Proefrock are standing there chuckling. Wade drops his books in horror as Amaro tells him he wants his lunch money, and he's not leaving til he gets it.

BB - Born after the original run of Dudley Do-Right from '69-70 but it fits in fit with Amaro who was born in '65.

Uncanny how Amaro just sets out to make a move and makes it happen. He will be around to see the full repercussions of all of his moves though since he is signed through '15 as the GM.

Phils as a prime mover-and-shaker the past 3 years in MLB. Hard to believe, Harry.

Trade looks better and better to me. I like Pence out there now as a right handed hitter and as an upgrade in RF and also that he's there for at least two more years. The outfield is set for next year with Brown, Vic and Pence. I'm not sure how they will use Brown for the rest of this year. I agree that it seems unlikely that they would sit Raul this year in favor of Brown.

On a side note, they have to be snickering in the FO about how much the Nats paid for Werth and how little they seem to have gotten.

cut_fastball: I'm not trying to start an argument with you, because you seem like a nice guy. But with regards to Pence, you said you can't see how he'll make any difference. You said we 'basically' reacquired BenFran/Mayberry, then said he's Mayberry with better luck. Then you said he's got an ugly swing and you can't wait til his next 0 for 23.

I'm not sure what point you were trying to convey, other than that he's a bum. Frankly you could have stopped at the comparison to Ben Francisco and your point would've been made.

Killer thing about Werth is how back-loaded his deal is. He is making $13.6M and $16.6M in '12 and '13. Pence should be around ~$10M and ~$13M respectively.

Nats will be play $20M+ for Werth at ages 35-39 from '14-'17.

Howard's contact is going to be a bad one. Werth's contact is going to be a total disaster and I thought that at the time. It was nuts to pay that kind of money for a guy who turned 32 this year, never really had a 'great season' and was going to be a future 1B/LF in 2 years.

Werth has a full no-trade to boot. Rizzo likely leaves that mess for someone else to clean up.

Once again RAJ did his job. He got what we needed above all.

Iceman -- I did make several posts speculating on the potential downside of the Pence trade, derived from sound bites that I heard over the past month or so. The problem with your “bum” comment was that I also freely admitted (if not then, now) that I did not study the career of 1 Mr. Pence; hence all I was putting forth was gross speculation.

Petitioning b_a_p and Fata -- 2 guys who seem to be endless sources of hard facts -- got me the answers I need. I now have a well-reasoned opinion of Hunter Pence. He's a nice player; I sure hope he finds CBP to his liking, and learns to hit Giants pitching. Somebody has to break the Giant’s spell on this lineup.

For those who like clutch stats, here's something to consider when looking at Pence as a replacement for Werth. Over the course of his career, Pence has a .298 average w/ RISP, and he's .342 for the season! Werth was .257 lifetime, but in 2010, he was a brutal .186 w/ RISP (this season w/ the Gnats, he's actually .237).

Reid:

I suggested kind of in jest that what was holding up this deal was Wade was insisting on a reliever like De Fratus or Aumont. Turns out it was Reid. Wade and his ever endless pursuit of middle relievers.

Let's hope Hunter is on target. We'll know about Zeid soon. Wih Houston's Bp he should get a quick call.

It's Zeid, but you're right about Wade.
One of Those AAA "major league ready(ish)" guys could be the next to be moved.

Not sure if this has already been posted but on mlbtraderumors they're reporting the phils asked about thome.

The idea that keeping Brown over Raul is a no-brainer is just false.

The two players have posted a nearly identical OPS since Brown was called up. Raul has posted an OPS near .800 since May 3rd. It's true, Brown does a better job getting on base, but Raul slugs significantly better.

Dom also hasn't played LF... not that Raul plays it very well.. and Raul's experience can't be ignored.

I'm a huge Dom Brown fan, but I don't have a problem with him going back to AAA to get some experience in LF and come back in September. Dom Brown will be our LF for the next 10 years... the next 2 months won't change that.

MG: You mentioned in the last thread that Brown's value is going down because teams see him as a LF rather than a RF. That makes no sense to me. The only difference between LF and RF is that you need a better arm in RF, and there are no questions about Brown's arm. It's not any easier to read fly balls in left, and you have to cover just as much ground.

CJ: I'm not sure what I would decide, but given the way Brown goes after fly balls in a position he's comfortable with, I'm not sure I want to see him thrown into the fire at a new position without some minor league practice.

This may seem trivial but it seems to me that Dom needs a bigger glove. Looks like he's holding his glove with the tips of his fingers. Never seen anyone wear a glove like that. Won't help him track the ball but every little bit helps.

While Jack and Fatalotti say Pence will not improve above what he's done the past 3 years, the bulk of major league history says otherwise.

I agree with derekcarstairs: The odds of Pence improving in his age 28-32 seasons are greater than the odds of him remaining stagnant or regressing. He is currently in his age 28 season.

We shall see.

cut_fastball gets big props for being one of the few BL posters to admit he doesn't know what he's talking about.

As of 12:31pm ET, the Phillies 25-man roster contains 26 players. What are the conventions or fine print regarding stuff like this?

I'm excited to see what Pence does tonight.

Calling 6 for 4 with 25RBIs and all 5 web gems on BBTN.

clout brings a lot of things to the table as a poster, but maybe his best attribute is his ability to deliver a compliment that is completely wrapped inside an insult.

OK, at JW's request, I'll give a scouting report on Zed.

Zed is chief agent of the Men in Black, charged with protecting earth from intergalactic scum.

He's pretty cool under fire, tossing off lines like, "We're not hosting an intergalactic kegger down here.

And, he...oh, wait. Wrong Zed.

Some have to admit they don't know what they're talking about, I try to make it so obvious that I don't have to state it in so many words.

I took that for an insult completely wrapped inside a compliment.

clout -- Great point; so much of what I "know" is empirical. I can't pass muster in an argument with the Sabermetrics guys. Sabermetrics chops is the currency of the land here. I sure as he88 wish I could make the time to study and formed fact-based opinions arising from Sabermetrics.

Props to you and denny b. for your posts based on what appears to be a life-long love and real passion for the game. That's all I'm packing, but it's exhausting to be sufficiently vigilant against the "strawmans" and general eye-jabs that might follow the posting of a bona-fide opinion.

Sure is a cool site regardless; how many other cities support this level of activity?

hib to the jib

DH Phils: Who should be the starting RFer for the Phillies next season, Pence or Brown? Explain your answer while keeping in mind that Pence is a MLB OF with above-average range and a plus arm, which is why he plays RF.

While Jack and Fatalotti say Pence will not improve above what he's done the past 3 years, the bulk of major league history says otherwise.

I agree with derekcarstairs: The odds of Pence improving in his age 28-32 seasons are greater than the odds of him remaining stagnant or regressing. He is currently in his age 28 season.

We shall see.

It will be interesting to see how the Phils deal with Pence's contract next year. Presumably the FO will try to buy out his last two years of arbitration eligibility and perhaps his first year of free agency. Pence was one of only two players in MLB to actually go to salary arbitration last year. (He won.) He may not be the easiest player to bargain with.

One slightly sobering thought here. While Rube has certainly killed it when trading for pitchers, as far as I can remember, he's traded for only one position player prior to this Pence trade. That player? Ben Francisco. Not exactly stellar.

Hopefully, Ed Wade gets hired by the Dodgers next year so we can pick up Kemp and Kershaw.

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