Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Phils could eye longer leases instead of short rentals | Main | Minor rumor: INF Singleton latches on with Phillies »

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Comments

"A lineup of Rollins-Polanco-Utley-Howard-Pence-Victorino-Ibanez-Ruiz looks like a championship-caliber lineup."

Yeah, you meant to write Brown instead of Ibanez, right?

In a second I'd do that deal! Plus another prospect from Clearwater (pitcher). Heck yes!

If the Phils let Worley go, they better be prepared to wheel Oswalt out to the mound in a wheelchair come October if he isn't healthy. That would be a better option than the alternative- Game 4 starter Kyle Kendrick.

That said- if you can make a similar deal with the Astros like you did with Happ (centering around a pitcher with the ceiling of a #4 starter), to get Pence...I think it would be a steal. But that's assuming you don't throw in a guy like Cosart.

Joe Blanton is still alive

Iceman, who's the Phillies pitcher the rest of the year until Oswalt returns if they do this?

Also, if you let Worley go, than you Doc, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt, KK....and NO ONE.

If someoen gets hurts, you're in a heap of trouble. Trading Worley would be a mistake; not because he's some great pitcher of the future, but because he's cheap and we don't exactly have pitching depth.

As much as I like Vanimal and the upside he has I would rather have Pence right now.

Worley is a nice story, and he has really helped the Phillies fill a need, but the guy is pitching WAY over his head. More so over his head than Pence.

The difference? Pence is a really solid player.

.....unless your second deal nets ubaldo...

Agree with Fat. What does the rotation look like this year in Vanimal is gone? And let's take worst case: Oswalt and Blanton are on the DL. KK at #4, and Russian roulette of AAA players at #5?

I'm with Fat. Worley and KK are our only bulwarks against injuries to a not-so-young, arguably slightly overworked rotation. Do you want KK starting NLCS game 4?

According to a piece Sunday in The Trentonian, Blanton is unlikely to return this season - although the Phillies aren't saying that.

* * * * *

By DENNIS DEITCH
dendeitch@gmail.com

NEW YORK – On a day Kyle Kendrick did much to make his case for either remaining the fifth starter or at least being the backup plan to Vance Worley if and when Roy Oswalt returns from his back woes, the Phillies revealed that the guy who started the season as the No. 5 guy behind the four aces is almost surely not going to pitch as a starter again in 2011.

According to assistant general manager Scott Proefrock, Joe Blanton had another “hiccup” during a throwing session Saturday. Probably not the most accurate body-noise analogy for what has been going on inside Blanton’s right elbow this year. The bottom line is that it seems doubtful the veteran is going to have the time to return to starting-pitcher form this season even if his elbow recovers in time to avoid a collision-course with an operating table.

“Yeah, I can’t say that thought hasn’t crossed our mind,” Proefrock said of the notion Blanton might be done for the season. “But until we have a definitive diagnosis that he can’t pitch, he’s still in the plans.

“He said he could have thrown it, but he had a little discomfort and didn’t want to push it … We’ll see how he feels. He may be coming back to see Dr. (Michael) Ciccotti in Philadelphia, depending on how he feels.”

The Phils need a RF (assuming Dom goes to left) and a RHB for the next few years, we have almost no one in the minors ready for a while (at best). Pence answers the short term need and assuming we can work something out, answers a longer term need as well. With Ibanez coming off the payroll next year, and letting Lidge go and either Madson or Jimmy, we can afford him (I assume).

I wouldn't give up Dom, but I would Vanimal and a good A ball guy like Singleton (though I may regret that some day).

I get the argument that trading Worley right now leaves us in a hole if Oswalt isn't healthy.

What I don't get is how having a hole at the back-end of our rotation for next year is somehow more important than getting an All-Star quality bat for this year and next year to fill the gaping hole in LF. We can fill a 5th starter spot relatively easily going into next season. We cannot get a hitter of Pence's quality to fill LF nearly so easily. And I don't even like Pence that much.

Also, in the very very likely case that we make the playoffs this year, we can go 3 man if necessary - Cole is ready and I don't have any worries about Doc and Lee on that score.

keep vance - pitching wins world series.

cant do it w/ just 3 arms

If Worley is the centerpiece of a deal for Pence (which means no Singleton or Cosart), that's a deal the Phils should do. I'd imagine the Phils are comfortable that Oswalt will be back in a couple weeks. And if someone else got hurt... you'd dip down into AAA for a marginal starter.

GBrett: great find, thanks for posting.

I think some folks here are conflating Worley and Happ as if they're the same pitcher.

Worley does not walk the bases loaded on a regular basis then have to wriggle out of the jam by the skin of his teeth.

Worley has better stuff all across the board. Better velocity on his fastball with about the same amt of movement. Better control of his breaking stuff. And apparently, similar deception in his movement.

Happ had already been injured off and on when the Phillies traded him, and he's not been completely healthy during his Astros stint either. Worley has no such concerns.

Worley is a better fielder and hitter. In short, he's a baseball player rather than just a pitcher. I know this is a small thing, but it's still a thing.

Worley is a solid 4 starter on just about any team right now. Will the league catch on to him? Maybe, but his secondary pitches are still developing, so maybe it's a stalemate. Will his control and command remain this good? Not likely. But look at Lee and Halladay, their command has been way off this season for a couple of games or more at a time. No pitcher is as good as the mental image we have of Doc and Lee and even Hamels.

Worley is a cheap pitcher for three years then relatively cheap for three more. And that means a lot to a team that will be trying to re-sign their shortstop after this season, and maybe replace their third baseman and their leftfielder and quite possibly their closer. And that doesn't even account for the possiblity that they might want to keep Oswalt for 16 million bucks.

Worley may stay while KK walks to save money. Martinez may stay while Valdez walks to save money. There is a lot that goes into calculating the value of Worley to the Phils, but moving him may start the wheels turning on some very expensive moves in the near future.

If we trade Worley we have a hole at the back-end of our rotation for the remaining 2+ months of this season also.

I cant believe any trade for Pence would be centered around Worley, but if it really is you gotta do it. You cant hold up trading for an all star because you're worried about a #4 starter.

Fatalotti: I don't disagree that trading Worley hurts your pitching depth, but I think the addition of Pence and the subtraction of Worley is a net gain - by a good margin too.

Disagree?

If a month ago, someone said you could trade Vance Worley for Hunter Pence, everyone would have a) laughed and said no freaking way, and b) would have agreed the Phillies should do it in a heartbeat.

I like Worley a lot, and I don't like Pence as much as some, but people, have some perspective. Worley was on the Iron Pigs a couple of months ago.

crotchbat: I'd rather see Kyle Kendrick out there than Blanton. Blanton has laid turds the last two years in the playoffs. And Kendrick has shown himself capable of putting together a decent start in the past two seasons, which is more than you can say for Blanton, who has sucked out loud since the beginning of last year.

Fatalotti- if a pitcher gets hurt, they are screwed anyway. Drew Carpenter is your next option, I guess. But I think they are pretty sure Oswalt will be back at this point- and there's another 10 days they have to make the trade, so in that time they'll have an even better idea of how Oswalt is feeling.

To be honest (and this is assuming they don't trade Worley), I'd rather them push Oswalt's rehab back even farther and get him some more rest. Bring him back for September and beyond. Only ask him for 7 or 8 more starts over a month and a half period. It's the best way to maximize what they could get out of him. But they aren't doing that, so it's a moot point.

repost: trade Worley for Pence and sign Pedro. Problem solved.

If we trade Worley we have a hole at the back-end of our rotation for the remaining 2+ months of this season also.

Posted by: Steve

No one is mentioned who the number 5 is if Oswalt's back keeps giving him problems. Baez? Zagurski? If we didn't have Worley, one could argue that we'd be in a tie or even a game or two behind the Braves.

Interesting that many people think the Phils are too old, so the solution to that is to trade a young pitcher.
Worley is pitching over his head? True, he's no Ted Abernathy.

CJ: too late, the phils already let go of Brian Gordon.

It'd be NATE BUMP Time!

you don't hold up a deal for Pence because of Vance Worley. I like the guy, but come on.

repost: mlbtraderumors MLB Trade Rumors
Padres setup man Mike Adams told @Marty1090 that Jeff Moorad has not told him he won't be traded

Those of you who worry who would be our 4th starter if we trade Worley, I ask what makes you think Charlie is at all comfortable starting a rookie in the playoffs? What in his history makes you think he'll do that? If Oswalt and Blanton aren't available, I seriously think he'd go with KK than Worley.

jbird/Jack: Agreed.

I wrote a post about how they shouldnt trade Worley because his value to the Phils is as high as it is to other teams.

But that was because I viewed Worley as a complimentry peice, or only netting the Phils a rental. If we get a team controlled allstar with Vanimal as the centerpeice? Adios!

What is the status on Blanton?

"you don't hold up a deal for Pence because of Vance Worley. I like the guy, but come on. "

I don't think you hold up a deal for Pence because of Vance Worley, but then at that point, I think the Phils have no other choice but to deal for another starter, which makes the whole situation much more complicated.

Vance Worley's value will probably never be higher than it is right now, so structuring a deal around him for Pence would seem like a no-brainer, but it does worry me on a couple of fronts.

Will Oswalt's back allow him to pitch effectviely this year? Blanton sounds like he could be gone all year, but Oswalt stated that he felt great after his bullpen session, better than he had since Spring Training. If he is able to return, that mitigates the need for Worley this year, but leaves questions for next year.

Oswalt will probably be bought out, and the Phillies should try to unload Blanton for anything they can get (which may not be much, depending on if he can return in 2011), so who will man the back of the rotation in 2012 and beyond? Having a cost controlled, league average or better starter at the #4 or 5 slot is a huge advantage.

Pence concerns me also, because his BABIP is much higher than is sustainable, his strikeout rate is up, and his isolated power numbers are down. Combine that with the fact that he ain't exactly cheap $6.9 million this year, and around $10 or more next year in arbitration, and I have a lot of questions around making this deal.

Who would Seattle offer for Singleton?

Would you pull the trigger on Singleton for Ichiro?

3r0ck, uhh no, that's not how it works

Blanton won't be back and there's no gurantee Oswalt doesn't go down again considering he has a back injury. Unless were dealing for a starter as well, I'm against letting worley go right now. It's like if i were in the desert and I stumble upon a guy with a treasure chest with but no water. Yea, I can trade him the water for the treasure I'm sure, but then I have no water. An offensive upgrade, to me, is more of a luxury then a need. Good pitching is a need.

"What in his history makes you think he'll do that? If Oswalt and Blanton aren't available, I seriously think he'd go with KK than Worley"

Charlie does love him some veterans, but two things:

1) Dubee (and UC by extension) really dislike KK. Maybe "dislike" is too strong a word, but they view him like the red headed stepchild. Dubee, especially, is comical to watch during a bad KK start.

2) Charlie isn't opposed to starting rookies over veterans provided that he doesn't like/trust the veteran very much and the rookie has overperformed.

This is the same bellyaching that happened when we traded Happ. Worely may or may not be better than Happ, but he's still a guy you trade for the Pences and Oswalts of the world.

Those of you who worry who would be our 4th starter if we trade Worley, I ask what makes you think Charlie is at all comfortable starting a rookie in the playoffs? What in his history makes you think he'll do that? If Oswalt and Blanton aren't available, I seriously think he'd go with KK than Worley.

Posted by: Dan in Philly

I'm not worried about the playoffs. I'm worried about the 65 or so remaining games. Arguably, 26 of those remaining 65 will be pitched by KK and .... who?

"Would you pull the trigger on Singleton for Ichiro?"

Check out his WAR for this year. No.

Getting a 4-5th starter type might not be so hard.

Getting a 4th-5th starter type that wont push the Phils over luxury tax will be close to impossible.

" If you look at what the Phillies need more than anything at the moment - a right-handed hitting corner outfielder who can bat in the middle of the order"

Drew, I fundamentally disagree with that premise. It's your opinion....fine.

Personally, I'm more concerned about the bullpen.

Since Chase Utley started hitting again (On June 3rd his slash line: .195/.298/.293...he went 3/5 on the 5th...since June 5th he's: .292 .388/.474) the Phillies are 24 - 12 [.667] and have scored 175 runs, 4.86 RPG. The top scoring team in the NL, St. Louis, is averaging 4.64 RPG. I don't know where the 4.86 RPG puts the Phillies since June 5th, but I imagine it's up there.

Give me a nice bullpen piece.

Joakim Soria....please.

Bullpen would then be:

Soria C-CL (Capable Closer)
Madson C-CL
Bastardo C-CL
Stutes
Perez
Herndon
Baez

...with Lidge close to returning.

"Arguably, 26 of those remaining 65 will be pitched by KK and .... who?"

Is it too late to get Brian Gordon back from the Yankees?

Jbird, Pence and Oswalt are not in the same class of player. Oswalt is a borderline Hall of Famer. Pence is an above average player who is playing above his head right now, offensively.

Worley is better than Happ by all acounts, and the big issue with the Phillies is they are short on pitching depth, an also have LOTS of money locked up to a small amount of players.

Again, a cost controlled 4/5 starter right now who can be league average is a HUGE deal for this year and next with all the money locked up in Lee/Doc and all the money sure to go the way of Hamels.

I'm not worried about the playoffs. I'm worried about the 65 or so remaining games. Arguably, 26 of those remaining 65 will be pitched by KK and .... who?


oh geez, here we go with this again. they are making the playoffs anyway

st, as currently contructed, they are locks to make the playoffs. You start taking away contributory pieces, and the equation changes.

Maybe the real secret deal would be trading KK for Pence plus cash. Ed Wade: Master Mole for the Phils...

not in this case

"Is it too late to get Brian Gordon back from the Yankees?"

Yanks DFA'd Gordon a couple weeks back and he became a free agent on 7/13.

Brian Gordon is currently pitching in Korea, not for the Yankees.

The idea that Vance, he of the 10th best BABIP against in the NL, with a K/BB ratio below 2, whose HR/FB ratio is unsustainably low, should not be sold high on for a younger than 30, right handed, defensively-talented OF, who's posted greater than 3.3 WAR every season since 2007 with 2 years of control left because the Phillies might have to find a stop-gap 5th starter, while they run out a trio of Halladay Lee and Hamels, totally befuddles me.

Fatti raises interesting questions:

What does the addition of Pence and the subtraction of Worley do to the run differential?

Does Worley's absence create havoc at the back end of the rotation and further tax an already thin bullpen?

Would a tired bullpen heading into the playoffs be more of a detriment than Pence in the lineup?

Fats: Pence is a guy that'll give you a .280 avg. a .330 obp all with 25 homeruns. Look at it from the other side. If you were an Astro's fan and your team just traded Pence for Worley, you wouldn't be pissed?

"Arguably, 26 of those remaining 65 will be pitched by KK and .... who?"

Roy Oswalt, for one. And anyway, if not Oswalt, what you're really saying is that trading Worley away leaves us in a hole for 13 games. Now, let's say, even assuming best-case Worley keeps up his hot streak, Phils go 10-3 in those 13 Worley starts. Unlikely, but sure.

If the Phillies called up someone from AAA to make those 13 starts (and again, they wouldn't--it would either be Oswalt or a waiver-wire pickup like Moyer in 06, but whatever), and they were bad, the Phils could still go, say 4-9 in those 13 starts.

In an absurdly exagerrated hypothetical, you're looking at 6 games. The Phillies own a 9 game lead in the WC standings right now.

So, my point is, stop pretending like dealing Vance Worley is going to somehow derail this team's cruise to the playoffs. It's not.

Let me rephrase the last question:

"Would a tired bullpen heading into the playoffs be more of a detriment than the addition of Pence to the lineup would be a plus?

The Phils would likely have to win only 86 games to make the playoffs this year. Lets be generous and say 90. In order to finish 90-72, the Phils would have to go 29-36 - 7 games under .500, and they still make the playoffs.

To go 8 games under 500 for the rest of the way will take an epic collapse which Worley's presence or absence will likely not make a material impact.

conclusion: unless we think Worley will contribute in the playoffs or will be a big part of the rotation in the future, there is no reason to hang on to him.

conclusion: unless we think Worley will contribute in the playoffs or will be a big part of the rotation in the future, there is no reason to hang on to him.

Precisely. Now, there is a very strong argument that with Oswalt's option to be declined next year, we DO need him for the rotation next year.

But right now, arguing about the last two months and Worley's spot in the rotation is arguing about the difference between, say, 96 wins and 99 wins. Which is to say, it's irrelevant.

JeffPassan Jeff Passan
I appreciate what Mike Adams told @Marty1090, but the conversation did happen with him and Moorad, even if he doesn't want to admit as much.

Phils win% when orig 4 aces start: .630(46-27)
Phils win% when they dont: .625(15-9)

What about picking jamie moyer up?

Rockies 1, Braves 0, bottom 1st

Can we amalgamate Jamie Moyer and Pedro Martinez to create the perfect jheri curled geriatric 5th starter?

"I appreciate what Mike Adams told @Marty1090, but the conversation did happen with him and Moorad, even if he doesn't want to admit as much."

How does Passan know? Was he there when Moorad told Adams?

I love these verbal pissing contests.

I share the concern about pitching depth but, if Worley can be parlayed into Pence for 2011-12, you do it. I enjoyed his day thoroughly yesterday but, I don't think the guy had more than one ground ball before the 7th inning. I like him but, I don't think his 2.02 ERA paints a complete picture of his upside.

With all that said, I lean toward looking for relief help, trading an A ball guy or two for Beltran and worrying about next year's outfield next year.

Totally awesome site updates:

- Everyone cool with the additional links feature?

- We now have facebook like and Tweet buttons, so use them. Anyone using Google+?

jw: only if you will 'Hang out' with me

I get the argument that, for this season at least, Vance Worley vs. "fill in the starter" may not mean the difference between a playoff berth and October golf, but I for one feel that homefield advantage is a big boon in the playoffs, and while 90 wins may get you into the dance, it doesn't guarantee that the dance is in your high school.

The Braves are going to win north of 93 games this year, and the Phillies would probably like to do what it takes to win more. I would like them to do that as well.

Also, the argument does address what the Phillies do about filling out the rotation next year, under the assumption they don't bring back Oswalt for $16M.

I request a Friendster button.

FWIW, I read today that Worley's FIP is in the 3's. Sure, he's getting lucky, but doesn't that indicate he's still been pitching well? Help me out here. I could see why we all thought Happ was going to regress because his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all indicated he was a 4+ ERA pitcher. But Worley's stats don't say that, so why are we so sure he's going to turn into a pumpkin?

Not arguing, just seeking knowledge.

Are some really willing to make the argument that keeping Vance Worley could be the difference between making or not making the playoffs this year?

Recall that the difference between winning the division and the wild card is far from meaningless. Take a glance at our home/away splits.

I just don't see how replacing Ibanez/Brown with Pence is going to outweigh replacing Worley with a fringe AAA starter. You can't assume Oswalt is going to come back and be himself, and even if he does you're talking about a meaningful dropoff from Worley to KK with ZERO options in case one of the other starters is injured. The big 3 are all either pitching mega innings or have had recent health scares.

And this is all assuming a straight-up trade without us throwing in a prospect.

Should have read: Also, the argument does NOT address what the Phillies do about filling out the rotation next year, under the assumption they don't bring back Oswalt for $16M

If you can actually acquire Pence for a package based around Worley and NOT one of the top prospects, of course you do it. I have been one of the loudest opponents of a Pence trade based almost entirely on the expected price tag, but that would be a steal for the Phils. Worley is NOT as good as his numbers suggest.

You people have looked at Pence's career stats, right? Last year, for instance, at the age of 27, his numbers were only slightly better than those of Ibanez. I'm not saying Pence isn't a nice little player... he is. But he's not the type you mortgage your future for, because he's not carrying anyone to a title.

Worley for Pence will necessitate A big salary increase plus luxury tax to keep him next year. Hence Pence for Worley now is actually Pence for worley and one of the following: JRoll, Madson or Hamels next year. The deal sounds good, but the value of a low cost 4 or 5 pitcher is seen in the other affordable players.

Chris, I think everyone understands that Worley is pitching above his head, but I think people also realize that Worley may have some real talent, and be an asset to this team long term, especially on the extreme cheap. Like Heather posted above, his ERA estimators have him in the 3s. That's still a good pitcher. With three aces at the top, we don't need another ace.

Totally awesome site updates:

- Everyone cool with the additional links feature?

- We now have facebook like and Tweet buttons, so use them. Anyone using Google+?

Using G+? Yes

"But Worley's stats don't say that, so why are we so sure he's going to turn into a pumpkin?"

No one knows that. It's all conjecture. It's possible that he's actually a good pitcher.

"Worley is NOT as good as his numbers suggest."

What do his numbers suggest? FIP, xFIP, SIERA, all say between the low 3's to the high 3's.

Maybe I'm grossly misinformed, but I interpret that as his true talent level ERA is somewhere in that area. So, let's say an average ERA of 3.90 going forward. A cost controlled starter under team control for the next 5 years with an ERA of 3.90 going foward isn't something to be sneezed at.

Am I interpreting these stats incorrectly?

Both Worley and Pence are playing/pitching over their heads.

Who regresses first?

No one has answered my question:

What happens if you trade Worley, the back end of the rotation becomes chaos, and the bullpen gets overworked and overtaxed heading into the playoffs? (Does Pence, in the playoffs, make up for an ineffective bullpen?)

Are some really willing to make the argument that keeping Vance Worley could be the difference between making or not making the playoffs this year?

Posted by: Iceman | Thursday, July 21, 2011 at 03:38 PM

No, but I don't want to overtax the rest of the pitching staff so they're wheezing into October

I'm really kind of stunned by the overvaluing of Worley, or more generally a 5th starter on a team that has 3 #1's.

This doomsday scenario where Worley is dealt and Oswalt ends up re-aggravating his back while hauling some timber is just loony. There are 10 days until the trade deadline and Oswalt is already feeling great in bullpen sessions. If he doesn't have a setback by then, he will be making starts for this team in August. Worst case scenario is someone like Drew Carpenter ends up making a handful of starts through the end of the season. Do you just assume Worley would go undefeated in his starts or the Phils would lose all of Carpenter's starts? Come on.

I don't even want to trade for an OF, but if you can trade for Pence without giving up anyone of value on the farm, you JUMP at the chance. Two months of Vance Worley is not going to make the difference between making the playoffs, or even winning the division.

To me, far and away, the key to winning it all this year is not an OF, 3B, RH hitter, Leo Nunez. Its having the Four Aces ready to go for the post season.
Vance Worley aids in that cause in that he can help lessen the regular season workload for them. I want more than five SP for the balance of the regular season so that Cholly/Dubes can go easy on the aces.

I guess the real question is do the Phils go "all-in" (i.e. trade for Pence, lose Worley and add potential pitching hole in the rotation for a couple of years)? Or try and keep Worley and add a lesser known right handed bat and some bullpen help.? Very intriguing....

Iceman, if Oswalt can't pitch all the starts for the rest of the year, there is a significant difference between Worley/KK and KK/Carpenter, and that could cost us the division.

We are up big in the WC, but let's not assume that we have the division wrapped up without any work left to do.

Sell high on Worley. You are over thinking this people. Yes, we may be buying a little high on Pence, but as JW mentioned, he fills too many needs. Even if he regresses he will be be a great fit.

Dang. My free trial for MLB Extra Innings has expired.

It's a damned if you do damned if you don't. The argument over if Worley is a fluke or not is irrelevant. Who pitches in Oswalt and Blanton's spot? They're both out for a bit and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if either one is set back. After Kendrick, we're talking Nate Bump unless Pedro wants to come back and who knows how that would work out.

However, Worley will probably never value this high and if you get Hunter Pence from Fast Eddie for an arm on a hot streak, it's hard to resist. We'd still need a pitcher from somewhere I think.

i wish Ed Wade was in my fantasy league. i've been trying to trade Jeff Karstens (similar #'s to Worley, only more IP) for the likes of Werth, Prado, and Melky. no one is biting.

Has anyone mentioned this angle?

What would the addition of Pence do to the development of Brown? You know Charlie wouldn't bench Raul. And you didn't get Pence to platoon him.

Rockies 4, Braves 0 after 2.

for those arguing Worley = $$$ saved next year, remember that if we don't get Pence or another OF cost controlled next year we'll have to spend at least $16MM (Oswalt option) to sign a FA next year, we have no one in the minors even close to being ready.

I would love to keep Worley, he is a very valuable player and will save whatever team he plays for money next year and the next few years. I just think if we trade him for Pence (or a similar cost controlled player) we will be a better team top to bottom.

Heather, Worley's FIP is 3.19 and his xFIP (which normalizes the HR rate) is 3.99. One reason for the variance between those numbers is that vance has eitehr been very lucky, or very effective, in not allowing home runs this year. Whether or not that is a true skill is open for debate, as anyone who has looked at Matt Cain's numebrs could tell you

Worley's peripheral numbers, other than his walk rate, are all pretty solid, and for a 23 year old pitcher, quite good. If he is able to control his walks better, there is a chance he could be a very effective pitcher that would be cost controlled for a lot of years.

Joe Blanton:

I saw that he had a 'hiccup' in his comeback. Didn't realize he might be done for the year. Phils handled his injury poorly from the start and owe him another $10.5M.

Almost wonder if it gets to the point where he tries to 'pitch through it' again next year or just has off-season surgery that costs him a chunk of time next year during the regular season. Certainly seems where it is headed because a guy doesn't miss this much time with a routine injury.

Can't say I would be sad if I never saw Blanton pitch again for the Phils. It would hurt them next year but he just reminds of me Jon Lieber too much with his performance, lack of ability to go deep into games, and his demeanor on/off the mound. Not one of my favorite Phils' players.

It was always funny to see the guys at Good Phight argue about how good/underrated Blanton was largely due to his SIERA as if everything else didn't matter & existed in a statistical vacuum.

All I know is that his numbers look pretty mediocre to me in a Phils' uniform:

78 GS, 26-16, 4.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 2.6 K/BB

You always hear that Blanton was a key component in '08. He did give them 2 solid starts in the postseason but the Phils were 9-4 in his 13 starts after they acquired him because they averaged 5.6 runs/start in those 13 games. His ERA was 4.20.

I know we're all working off the rumors that are out there, but I wouldn't be shocked if there's another piece coming back to the Phils w/Pence, or from another team that would fill the RP/5th starter role. The Front Office isn't as dumb as they used to be.

"Dang. My free trial for MLB Extra Innings has expired."

I don't know exactly how your free trial works, but if it's just a "new customer" thing, it's possible you could get an IP spoofer, a new email address, and sign up for your free trial again.

DIP, Oswalt's buyout is a max of $2 M. If we don't want to bring him back, the most we have to spend is $2 M.

So you're saying there's a chance for Happ

His numbers suggest someone who's gotten extremely lucky this year on balls in play and fly balls not leaving the yard.

His BABIP is .254 and his HR/9 is 0.29. Those rates would have ranked T-8th and 1st last year for starting pitchers.

His xFIP and SIERA both suggest he's more like a 4.00 ERA pitcher (xFIP has him at 3.99 and SIERA slightly over 4.00), which, in today's run scoring environment, would make him a below average pitcher, according to ERA+.

Worley is a better Kendrick/Happ, he is likely not a budding ace (his minor league numbers are good, not outstanding), though he might have a Blanton-y career.

There is a pretty good chance that the run production Hunter Pence would provide would strongly outweigh the regression that Vance Worley is likely due.

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG