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Thursday, July 28, 2011

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Player 1: .238/.302/.373 ….. 11 HR and 62 RBI ….. 92 OPS+ ….. Below-average defender (Ryan Ludwick)

Player 2: .262/.353/.510 ….. 20 HR and 62 RBI ….. 133 OPS+ ….. Poor defender (Carlos Quentin)

Player 3: .227/.307/..395 ….. 15 HR and 53 RBI ….. 101 OPS+ ….. Above-average defender (B.J. Upton)

Player 4: .247/.290/.423 ….. 14 HR and 54 RBI ….. 95 OPS+ ….. Below-average defender (Raul Ibanez, just for comparison's sake)

Stark was saying yesterday that the only reason Quentin was potentially on the market was for salary relief. That was taken care of with the deal they swung yesterday. He said Hill was not blowing up the team. Why would he when they are 3.5 games back in a weak division? That makes Carlos Quentin either VERY expensive or all together unavailable. I think it's the latter.

Reposted from the end of the last thread:

I guess the conversation went like this:

Rube: What do you think of our offer for Pence?

Wade: I like it, but the Houston fans will kill me. Can you put Worley in the deal?

Rube: The Philly fans would kill me.

A phone rings in the background.

Wade: Rube, you'll have to excuse me, that's Frank Wren (Atlanta GM) and he's pissed that Beltran went to the Giants. Let's see what he'll give me for Hunter. Gotta go. (click)

Rube: Wade. Wade. Wade?

Still think Upton is our best bet for this year and next year. 26 years old, not a great BA but that would probably improve. He's a good defender and he's controllable past this year.

Would anyone be especially upset if we hung on to Cosart and instead offered up Singleton/Worley for Pence?

Knew Quentin and Upton, did not pick out Ibanez or Ludwick. I was skeptical about trading for Upton at first, but the idea has become more palatable to me. The Trop is a tough hitters park, and his numbers outside of there are much better. He has plus speed and is good defensively, and he has some pop to his bat.

Now if they were to make a deal for him, I would hope that it would be to place him in LF and allow Dom to develop in RF. My fear is that he will replace Dom in RF, negating a lot of the advantages to trading for him.

Plus, not sure what the rays would want for him. If it is Singleton + someone like Biddle, I think taht is worth it. If they want Cosart also, then it is too much to give up

***Would anyone be especially upset if we hung on to Cosart and instead offered up Singleton/Worley for Pence?***

No, I would do that deal.

i agree with BAP's post on why Wade isn't an idiot for not accepting Cosart/Singleton.

we tend to overrate our own prospects to some extent. i understand that they are both considered top prospects, but they are far from sure things.

i doubt Wade has the authority to make a trade unless it's a no-brainer. a major league ready top prospect like Brown would likely get their attention, and it's something he would likely take to ownership for approval. short of something that would blow Houston away, Pence stays put.

If you get BJ Upton, you play him in center. He is a much better defender than Victorino.

Lake Fred, how about:

Rube: So I can package some promising A ball-ers with Worley, what do you think?

Wade: If I buy another Phillie starter with a great start and poor peripherials only to have his crash once again here, I'll never be allowed to work in this business again!

Rube: Hey, can't blame a guy for trying, Ed. It's not like you're all that likely to work in baseball after this year, anyway. Think it over, anyway.

Don't give up Worley. He looks like an outstanding starting pitcher for the future. He is successful in the major leagues NOW.

If RAJ doesn't land Jered Weaver or Verlander I'll be disappointed.

Upton is a power-speed guy who struggles to make contact and has a bit of dog to his game...however, he is a 137 OPS+ hitter away from the Trop this year, and his career numbers across the board are better on the road.

He may really need a change of scenery.

MplsPhilsFan: Yeah, it would be one top prospect plus one lesser prospect.

lineup could look like this

1. Rollins
2. Upton
3. Utley
4. Howard
5. Victorino
6. Ibanez/Brown
7. Polanco
8. Ruiz
9. Pitcher

Upton has a .200 BABIP at home and a .333 on the road. Over his career, he has a .326 BABIP. So it would seem he's been outlandishly unlucky at home this year, and that his road numbers are a far more accurate gauge.

***If you get BJ Upton, you play him in center. He is a much better defender than Victorino.***

Not really.

Redburb: I totally disagree on Upton being a better defender than Victorino. I admit that I see Victorino every day and only see Upton play a handful of times a year, but I think Vic is a full notch better than Upton on the defensive CFs scale.

Yeah, I think you keep Shane in CF and move upton to either LF or RF depending on who you keep out there, Brown or Raul

UZR and TZ have Upton as the better defender over the last 4 years (from 08 - PRES) but I'd go with Upton in RF still.

I don't know, Upton is one of the smoothest defenders I've ever seen in CF. He plays a very shallow CF and still gets to balls deep in the alley with relative ease. And he has a very good arm. Now, I don't know about decision making abilities, but I think he would be at least a hair better than Victorino.

Giants' GM on the Rome show today on radio, I love his explanation for making the big deal for Beltran - saying their club is in special position now with great pitching, team in first with good record and a chance to win NOW which doesn't always happen. This sounds very familiar. When you have a chance to win, you go for it, so Rube make it happen!

I would say that the Trop is a far harder CF than CBP when it comes to defense...so there's that to consider.

"He looks like an outstanding starting pitcher for the future."

Isn't this precisely why you WOULD give up Worley now? As opposed to waiting until his peripherals and past performance regress him to his mean?

I agree that RIGHT NOW, he's an absolute stud and I love having him and his intensity on the team. However, his previous ceiling was back-end, spot-starter, potential long man. Does his first trip through the NL change that ceiling that dramatically? I'm not entirely sure.

That said, if you are in the "Worley is a #3/#4 starter long term" (for a team that DOESN'T have 4 #1's), trading him now would be maximum value for sure. With Oswalt on his way back, the timing is right. To get something of value, you have to give something of value and if Wade's hesitation is that Cosart is still 3 years away, Worley is a viable alternative and somewhat proven at the MLB level.

Who knows, he may wind up being the next unheralded superstar young pitcher. The odds are against it, but it's possible.

Does it really matter who plays in CF/RF? They both have big arms and they both are great in the field.

With Vic and Upton you could get away with playing 2 OF's and you'd be just fine.

Willard, with Ibanez in LF, we would only be playing 2 OFs out there.

The more I think about it, the more I wouldn't be totally against BJ Upton. Since Vic's bat is playing like a corner OF, and since I'm confident that Upton would post over a 100 OPS+ here, and with the way they both play defense, that would definitely be a solid outfield tandem.

I say the Phils give the Pence prospects plus Worley to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez. If you can't get a bat, get another ace. Yeah, mess with us now!

The other reason to get Upton (assuming you sign him to a long term deal) is because he could slide into CF in 2013 after Victorino leaves. Shane's contract expires after the 2012 season & I do not think the Phillies will be able to afford him after that point

Just to be clear, I never have said nor ever will say that Worley hasn't pitched fantastically, indeed his results are impossible to argue with. But no one pays for past performance, rather you get paid based on future expectations (well, maybe not with Howard, but that's another story).

The trade value you get for Worley won't be based on his results for 1/3 of a year, but what people expect of him in the future, and scouts and sabers agree on this score.

Willard, with Ibanez in LF, we would only be playing 2 OFs out there. Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, July 28, 2011 at 01:27 PM



Who didn't see that one coming........lol

Couple things

- Braves are now "hot" for Quentin. The Braves are just mirroring the Phils interests.

- I could see Ruben waiting until the absolute last minute to trade Worley, Singleton and someone else to Houston for Hunter Pence. Knowing that Oswalt is coming back makes Worley dare I say, expendable, if you believe he won't be as effective his 2nd time through the league...

- I could also see a trade for B.J. Upton for 1 less prospect than what we'd have to give up for Pence.

What the hell would we do with Jimenez? Go with a 5 man rotation in October?

He'd be nice next year over Oswalt but he doesnt help us this year.

I'd be okay with Upton...not excited but okay.

What role, exactly, would Ubaldo play in the playoffs? Any trade Rube makes should be solely with the postseason in mind, because this team is a virtual lock for the postseason. Having 4 aces means you get to start 1 every single playoff game. Having 5 means 1 languishes in the BP as a long man? What would you possibly gain from that?

Another silver lining to getting Upton:

He continues the stron Phillies tradition of getting the "wrong" brother:

Jeremy Giambi
Mike Maddux
Vince Dimaggio
etc
etc

Anyone else at all nervous about the fact that #1 Ubaldo's velocity is down or #2 the sheer fact that the Rockies would even consider trading a guy who was previously untouchable?

Player #2 is the only guy I'd want to trade for. We've already got players 1 and 3 on the team. Why give up prospects?

Player #4 looks suspiciously like Ibanez...

Oh, guessed right. Is that really Upton's stat line? Why is he such a hot commodity? I don't care how "toolsy" a player is if his numbers stink.

How could you forget David Bell?

Haha NEPP. But, just like BJ whose bat plays better outside of the Trop, Justin's bat plays worse outside of Chase Field.

So there's that.

NEPP, maybe Ozzie Canseco is still in baseball shape?

If not, I bet he could be quickly, if you know what I'm sayin....

(I think you know what I'm sayin...)

I would never trade for Jimenez...between the velocity issues and his long term control issues (of his pitches, not team control), I'm just not excited. He's a guy that could very well completely implode if he loses just a tiny bit of his raw stuff.

"Braves are now "hot" for Quentin. The Braves are just mirroring the Phils interests."

The great game is afoot!

Ah, David is the son, not the brother. Never mind.

I'm wondering what the author of the post sees as the difference between "below-average" and "poor" defense.

The Rockies want a "godfather" offer for Jimenez, supposedly. It's the same thing the DBacks did with Justin Upton in the offseason. Put him out there and see if you can get 4 ML ready prospects with major upside. If not, then no worries, you've still got a super-valuable young player under team control for cheap.

NEPP: How can you forget Ken Brett? That one really hurt.

I have no interest whatsoever in B.J. Upton. We don't need a project; we need a proven entity who's actually likely to improve our lineup.

We already have a project in RF. Why on earth do we want to replace him with another project, who's 3 years older, much more expensive, having an even worse season, and only under team control for 1 more year? I don't get why anyone would be interested in this guy.

Chris: Justin Upton would've actually been worth making the "godfather" offer for.

NEPP: Don't forget Ken Brett. I'd ship out prospects. After all, Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Drabek, and Michael Taylor are hardly all-stars (even in AAA).

I'm wondering who is the rabbit in the hat and wouldn't be surprised to be surprised.

For Justin Upton, I would have happily given up Singleton, Cosart and Brown.

well, at least he's spending his money well:

http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/dish/201107/phillies-slugger-building-replica-venice-canal

my favorite part of the article isn't even about Howard's new digs. Jeter apparantly calls his new home St. Jetersburg. that's cute.

bap: BJ Upton isn't a "project." He's a guy who is what he is: a fantastic defensive OF who has a low BA and strikes out a lot, but has a decent eye at the plate, decent power, and very good baserunning.

I think, in an efficient market, we would not be able to compete with other teams' for his services because he doesn't provide the same value to us, as we already have a very good defensive CF, making some of his value redundant (you get diminishing returns to a certain extent when you put two very good defensive OFs next to each other). That said, if you can get him at a discount, he's better than what we currently have in LF or RF.

NEPP: It would've taken Bastardo too, at the least, in addition to Brown, Singleton and Cosart.

BAP: Everyone wants Pence or Quentin but if we're not gonna get either of them, I don't have a problem with Upton. He brings more elite speed to the team which could be very valuable in these tough 1 or 2 run ball games in the playoffs. He plays better D than Brown and Ibanez, so that sures up at least one side of the corner OF spots. He has better pop than you'd think for being a string bean and he is under control for 1 more season where if you dont make a move and rely on the FA market you're looking at some pretty poor choices.

It makes sense for this year and next year which are the 2 best opportunities for this team to win a Championship.

How about looking to the left coast. Would you do Kemp from LA for Dom and a prospect?

***NEPP: It would've taken Bastardo too, at the least, in addition to Brown, Singleton and Cosart. ***

Maybe we could have subbed out Bastardo with DeFratus or something...I'd still do that deal in a heartbeat.

bap - Upton isn't really a "project". He's. A strange case...he's got terrific power-speed potential. He plays a great CF, but has had motivational "issues" in the past. In all reality, he could be Matt Kemp if he reaches his potential. But he HAS to get out of Tampa to do it...he's sporting a hideous 55 OPS+ in TB this year, and a sparkling 137 OPS+ on the road. His road numbers are better across the board throughout his entire career. For whatever reason the Trop is his kryptonite.

I wouldn't go all out to get him, but after digging into his numbers a bit I think it would be a good move, provided the price is right.

NEPP: the thing I love about Vince Dimaggio is that he had 2 brothers that were better players, not just 1.

"Would you do Kemp from LA for Dom and a prospect?"

In a second.

The Dodgers wouldn't though. It'd be Brown, Cosart, Singleton and another piece at a minimum. Kemp isn't being traded for anything other than a king's ransom.

Oh conshy, I wish you hadn't linked to that.

You've now set the direction for any and all future Howard/albatross discussions for the foreseeable future.

for Kemp I would hope the Phillies would go all in, empty the system.

for Kemp, they'd have to. If Kemp was put on the market, there'd probably be 8-10 teams actively bidding on him.

"In all reality, [Upton] could be Matt Kemp if he reaches his potential."

That's why I used the word "project," even though he has probably been around too long to warrant that label. I meant simply that he is a guy who presumably has a much higher upside than he has shown in the last 3 years.

I hope Howard has the decency at least to dedicate a wing of his mansion to Rube, for just being so kind and generous with that extension.

I just read the Howard new house article. What a stupid waste of money. C'mon Ryan, you can spend your money more wisely than that!

BJ Upton is more a puzzle than a project. How he gets worse every year is beyond me.

Its really hard to see how pro athletes can go broke with all the money they make. I mean, talk about a solid investment. I mean, last year, when I was house hunting, the #1 thing on our wish list was "replica Venetian canal"...Howard is a smart guy!

I'd be happy with going after a guy like Reed Johnson. He'd be great to platoon with Raul since he crushes lefties and probably wouldn't cost too much.

Actually, Upton's home/road differentials over his career are pretty slight. But yes, this year on the road he's pretty good, and incredibly bad at home.

Howard should be spending his money building a Subway assembly line in his mansion, replete with full time staff. It'd be like being the President:

"Hi, I know it's 3:00 AM and and all, but..."

"That's no problem Mr. Howard, your toasted BMT will be up in four minutes."

"Oh thank you!"

Factoring in the cost to get them, I'd prefer Reed Johnson to most of the guys mentioned in this thread.

Wow, upton and Shane, can you imagine the two most hyper spazzy boneheaded kids on the little league team playing in the same OF?

Yeah, you know I never bothered to look up Reed Johnson's numbers but he's actually pretty good...Maybe I thought less of him because of that stupid goatee

When you factor in the cost/sq. ft., Jeter's house, as the largest in the country, isn't a bad deal at just $7.7M. I bet it doesn't have a lazy river and a bowling alley with retractable walls, though. Cheapskate.

Hyper spazzy OF trifecta with the addition of Cody Ross. That guy is one twitchy f8ck.

Oh dear Lord, Matt, I can't believe that article.

The "Casa del Howard"? The faux Venetian Canal? The bowling alley with breakaway walls?

There might be something to this disdain for the vulgarity of the nouveau riche.

I'm glad Howard kept his new residence to a more subdued elegance rather than that gaudy peon to the nuveau riche, St. Jetersburg.

Heatehr: jinx

The only reason I don't know about Upton is because you'd have to pry him away from Tampa Bay. And when was the last time Tampa even made a fair trade, let alone lost one?

Hey, let me know when Ryno posts the job opening for a Pool Boy. I'm guessing I could triple my salary, easily.

There was a FOAF plumber who did work for one of the Eagle's Dbacks in Chester Co and he insisted on him installing bidets in something like 6 bathrooms. If you ask me, that is worse than bowling alleys.

"There was a FOAF plumber who did work for one of the Eagle's Dbacks in Chester Co and he insisted on him installing bidets in something like 6 bathrooms. "

Oh, come on now. It's a bit silly, but it's nowhere on the scale of the Casa del Howard's Venetian Canals. If I understand the concept of the bidet correctly, you might need either a different toilet, or either a small modification to an existing toilet....so either he replaced six toilets, or made small mods to 6 existing toilets. A morning's worth of work for an experienced plumber, not an excessive cost for the materials either.

A faux Venetian canal requiring 3.5 years of construction? On a totally different plane.

Extravagance is measurable in gallons of water, evidently.

Howard better get on his patented 2nd half tear, or I suspect building a "lazy" river wasn't the wisest direction he could have gone.

Ryan Howard's Venetian Canals --

Who gives a rat's ass?

The quotes from the Giants are coming out about last night's game - Wilson said it was a "must win" and Cain was just as serious, looks like this series really does mean something.

Let's play small ball and get back Bourn.

"Ryan Howard's Venetian Canals --

Who gives a rat's ass?"

You say that like the diversion into Ryan Howard's Venetian Canals was interrupting the Lord's Work.

If Quentin and Pence are unobtainable, the corner OF fallback option should still be Josh Willingham, not Ludwick or BJ Upton.

Heather, he's right, we have much more important things to talk about and problems to solve on this extremely critical Phillies baseball blog.

Which trade rumor are we currently kicking around again?

JJG, why?

Why don't we just wait until the Nats outright Werth and then sign him to minimum?

If Pence, Quentin, Bourn, and Kemp aren't in the cards, I can say I am honestly un-enthused about anyone else

Venetian canal? Is that a reference to Howard's fiance?

While the Phillies have shown a knack for picking the wrong brother most of the time, people seem to forget we won the first sibling sweepstakes hands down.

Ed Delahanty > brothers Frank, Jim, Joe, and Tom combined.

Phillies looking at a Mike Adams/Ryan Ludwick deal from Pads?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/heath-bell-rumors-thursday.html

Pricetag would probably be high I would think.

I would have no problem with BJ in CF. Vic could then be moved to right.

I like Pence but as I said yesterday, if Wade turned down that deal he's nuts.

If the reliever the Phils could be focused on is Adams, I have no problem with that. If Ludwick comes too, fine.

A RH bat is needed to come off the bench, and to provide another bat against a LH starter.

From MLB rumors ... "The Astros are seemingly asking for much more for Hunter Pence, who could make closer to $11 million via arbitration next year. A Major League source said he believes Pence will end up with the Phillies this weekend or possibly during the offseason."

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