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Tuesday, June 28, 2011


It's amazing how much a great front 3 of your rotation covers up a lot of flaws.

Any series in which 2 of our big 3 take the ball, I feel more than comfortable that they can win the series.

So, Madson will be elgible to come off the DL next Wednesday?

Just in time for the Atlanta series.

Should be an interesting BL battle for the next 8 days between Carpenter and Mathieson to see who stays and who goes next week.

Schwimer isn't on the 40 man roster, is he? Maybe that is why he hasn't been summoned yet.

BenFran's WAR is only -0.3? Feels like it should be a lot worse.

denny: No, he's not on the 40-man roster -- although I've never understood why that should ever enter into the decison. I have yet to ever see a Phillies 40-man roster which didn't include at least 5 guys who could be immediately cut without causing me even the slightest bit of remorse.

FWIW, and this is probably a point not too many BL posters care to engage with, I much prefer the Fangraphs' version of WAR to the B-Ref version.

Under Fangraphs, Victorino's WAR goes up to 3.7, right next to Ellsbury at 3.6.

But yeah, wow, didn't realize Ellsbury had been so good this year.

Fat: Thanks for completely missing the sarcasm on my Red Sox lineup post.

CJ is typically Philly delusional in the previous thread about his "assessment" of the Red Sox. And I am as die-hard a Phillies' fan as anyone can be. But, be realistic about the competition for crying out loud. You lose all credibility when you say someone is lousy, no good, etc. They wouldn't be in the majors (Baez, MM, etc...exceptions) if they were really that bad.

The Red Sox are formidable, but somewhat emasculated having to play without the DH. They might be the only team in the AL that has an "old-school" DH in Ortiz. That is to say, he can't play anywhere in the field.

I say both teams give this series their best shot with what they have. Then, given the results, they one or both teams make adjustments to better succeed the next time they meet, presumably in the WFS.

Interesting that the outfield isn't nearly the runaway I thought it was. Vic compares favorably to Ellsbury, plus Crawford and Drew are hardly dominating (a combined -0.1 WAR).

Position by position analysis doesn't really make a lot of sense. Like, any, actually.

For instance, out of the 8 position players, let's say the Phillies had 4 better and the Red Sox had 4 better. Even, right? But obviously if the Phillies better 4 were only better by a tiny bit, whereas the Red Sox better 4 were better by a whole heck of a lot, you'd be missing the whole point. Which of course is that the Red Sox position players are a whole lot better, overall.

mainerob: Please consult the post from me that is directly above your post. Thanks.

CJ: Unfortunately, I would project Carl Crawford to do a whole, whole lot better going forward than Raul or Dom.

Jack: As would I... yet thus far, Crawford has a lower WAR than Benny Frank. Go figure.

CJ, so if your post was sarcastic, then you DON'T think Veritak is old???

Seriously man, get real.

Papelbon doesn't scare me that much anymore. His dominance started to drop off right around the time the league upp'ed the testing. Not implying anything, just one of those things that makes you go hmmmmm. By no means is he a walk over, but he's not the shutdown guy he was a few years ago.

Papelbon has 40 SOs this year against all of 6 walks. He has a 12 SO/9 ratio and a 6.67 SO/BB ratio to go with a 2.34 xFIP.

I'm afraid of Papelbon late in the game

"I’d start him (Utley) over Pedroia."

Then you're an idiot.

CJ, you do realize the outfield has been injured far more than the Phils OF has, right?

Papelbon ERA in 2009 (66 games) = 1.85
Papelbon ERA in 2011 (30 games) = 3.90

In 2009, he gave up all of 14 earned runs. He's give up 13 so far this year. His K rate is about the same as in 2009 but his BB rate is MUCH better than even 2009.

Like I said, he's not a walkover, but he's not what he used to be.

The Phanatic clearly outpaces the Red Sox mascot.

Jerry Remy or Sarge Matthews? Advantage Sox.

"Red Sox Nation" or "Philadelphia Fans booed Santa" for most annoying cliche? Got to go with Booing Santa.

Cream Pie or Cheese Steaks? Real men eat cheese steaks. Phils get that one.

Rauls grandpa: Sure I do. I'm not sure what you're suggesting. Our healthy players have been bad enough to generate negative WAR. Sometimes I'd rather they be injured and maybe we'd be better off!

Think I read somewhere today that Adrian Gonzales mashes Cliff Lee. Can't find it anywhere though - is it true?

I would take a healthy Madson & Bastardo over a Papelbon & Bard combo. Red Sox bullpen is nothing to write home about either right now.

Fat: You got me... I truly believe the Red Sox lineup is terrible.

I considered using the [/sarcasm], but didn't believe anyone on here would be that dense.

Fool me once...

Marv: Do you have anything to support your preference of Pedroia over Utley, other than to call anyone with the opposing view "an idiot"? Their wOBAs are exactly the same this year, Pedroia's was slightly higher last year, and defensive metrics say Utley is a bit better. Utley's career offensive numbers are better.

They look to be at least comparable. I wouldn't say someone holding either view was "an idiot".

MG: When healthy, I think our bullpen is definitely better than what the Red Sox offer. And our staff, even without Oswalt, is superior in my mind simply because of the Big 3.

The offense on the other hand...

Well, I've got a dog emergency to deal with, so I can't talk down the Red Sox lineup anymore. Might be back on tonight for Game 1 of the World Series.

In the meantime, remember...

Don't Feed the Trolls.

Sounds like Madson won't be back as soon as he is eligible given Amaro's comments today. Sounds more likely that he will have a rehab stint and be back sometime after the ASB.

Perhaps this makes me an "idiot," but I am very hard-pressed to say that Pedroia is better than Utley. Pedroia has out-performed Utley in exactly one season -- last year. Even this year, Utley's OPS+ is 6 pts higher despite the fact that he's coming off a serious injury & began the season without having seen major league pitching in nearly 7 months.

With all due respect: position-by-position comparions, as a means of determining the better overall team, are hopelessly, timelessly pointless.

This poll is an absolutely hilarious example of BL's negativity. In particular the results for Howard and the rotation.

Only 1/4 of BLers think that the Phils' rotation is better than Boston's? Whaaaaaaaa?

CJ, you really are an irritable one. My line about you thinking Varitek isn't old was my own attempt at sarcasm. It's almost as if sarcasm doesn't translate well on a blog, and one shouldn't be surprised if a comment meant as sarcasm is treated as being not sarcastic in nature.

Of course, when I disagreed with what you wrote, my comment was directed at the content of your post. You, though, couldn't help but label me dense. Do you get away with this crap in real life? I certainly hope not.

The MLB Tonight guys more than once have used the word "intimidating" to describe the Phillies offense. . . . Huh?

I don't know. I feel pretty intimidated by the Phillies offense. What else would explain why I have to leave the room whenever they're hitting?

A position-by-position comparison only makes sense if you are talking about defense.

If you want to compare offenses, it's better to compare positions in the respective batting orders. Better still is to compare the overall performance of each team's offense and to adjust for park effects, leagues, etc..

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