With this series being billed as a “World Series preview,” let’s take a look at the head-to-head positional matchup between these two squads (2011 Baseball Reference WAR in parentheses):
Catcher: Carlos Ruiz (1.3) vs. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (0.5) – Ruiz has the edge here, but it is certainly not a runaway. While Chooch is more established defender and pitch-caller, Saltalamacchia’s OPS is nearly 60 points higher.
First base: Ryan Howard (1.3) vs. Adrian Gonzalez (4.6) – I don’t know if I would take any first baseman in baseball over Gonzalez right now. Over the last month, his slash line looks like this: .443/.515/.784.
Second base: Chase Utley (0.9) vs. Dustin Pedroia (3.3) – Though Utley’s only played in 29 games this year, I’d start him over Pedroia if the World Series was tomorrow. The pair of two-baggers have similar production rates this season, but Utley’s OPS edges Pedroia’s by 19 points.
Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins (1.4) vs. Marco Scutaro (0.5) – Scutaro has played in just 38 games this season, but his averages are strikingly similar to his Philadelphia counterpart (Rollins .260/.332/.378; Scutaro .276/.343/.370). Regardless, I have more confidence in Rollins to hit a gapper in a big spot than I ever would with Scutaro.
Third base: Placido Polanco (1.0) vs. Kevin Youkilis (3.2) – Both of these players bring a lot of intangibles to their respective teams, and they are both incredibly savvy all-around ballplayers. But when it comes down to it, Youkilis offers more pop, and ultimately more value.
Outfield: Raul Ibanez (-0.9), Shane Victorino (2.5) and Ben Francisco (-0.3) vs. Carl Crawford (-0.4), Jacoby Ellsbury (3.3) and J.D. Drew (0.3) – Boston’s outfield takes this matchup pretty handily. Though Crawford got off to a slow start and is on the DL now, he will be healthy in October, and that gives the Sox the edge in speed, power and defense. Ellsbury is also having a quietly huge year, better even than Victorino, the Phils’ top outfielder.
Starters: No need for any kind of WAR analysis here. Halladay, Lee and Hamels over Lester, Beckett and Lackey.
Bullpen: Right now, with the Phils’ bullpen in shambles, Boston takes the cake without question. But with a healthy Ryan Madson and an effective Jose Contreras, the discussion has at least some merit. All told, however, the combination of Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon at the back end of the Sox’s pen gives their stable of relievers the edge.
It's amazing how much a great front 3 of your rotation covers up a lot of flaws.
Any series in which 2 of our big 3 take the ball, I feel more than comfortable that they can win the series.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:28 PM
So, Madson will be elgible to come off the DL next Wednesday?
Just in time for the Atlanta series.
Should be an interesting BL battle for the next 8 days between Carpenter and Mathieson to see who stays and who goes next week.
Schwimer isn't on the 40 man roster, is he? Maybe that is why he hasn't been summoned yet.
Posted by: denny b. | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:29 PM
BenFran's WAR is only -0.3? Feels like it should be a lot worse.
Posted by: Spitz | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:32 PM
denny: No, he's not on the 40-man roster -- although I've never understood why that should ever enter into the decison. I have yet to ever see a Phillies 40-man roster which didn't include at least 5 guys who could be immediately cut without causing me even the slightest bit of remorse.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:33 PM
FWIW, and this is probably a point not too many BL posters care to engage with, I much prefer the Fangraphs' version of WAR to the B-Ref version.
Under Fangraphs, Victorino's WAR goes up to 3.7, right next to Ellsbury at 3.6.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:40 PM
But yeah, wow, didn't realize Ellsbury had been so good this year.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:40 PM
Fat: Thanks for completely missing the sarcasm on my Red Sox lineup post.
Posted by: CJ | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:46 PM
CJ is typically Philly delusional in the previous thread about his "assessment" of the Red Sox. And I am as die-hard a Phillies' fan as anyone can be. But, be realistic about the competition for crying out loud. You lose all credibility when you say someone is lousy, no good, etc. They wouldn't be in the majors (Baez, MM, etc...exceptions) if they were really that bad.
The Red Sox are formidable, but somewhat emasculated having to play without the DH. They might be the only team in the AL that has an "old-school" DH in Ortiz. That is to say, he can't play anywhere in the field.
I say both teams give this series their best shot with what they have. Then, given the results, they one or both teams make adjustments to better succeed the next time they meet, presumably in the WFS.
Posted by: mainerob | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:48 PM
Interesting that the outfield isn't nearly the runaway I thought it was. Vic compares favorably to Ellsbury, plus Crawford and Drew are hardly dominating (a combined -0.1 WAR).
Posted by: CJ | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:50 PM
Position by position analysis doesn't really make a lot of sense. Like, any, actually.
For instance, out of the 8 position players, let's say the Phillies had 4 better and the Red Sox had 4 better. Even, right? But obviously if the Phillies better 4 were only better by a tiny bit, whereas the Red Sox better 4 were better by a whole heck of a lot, you'd be missing the whole point. Which of course is that the Red Sox position players are a whole lot better, overall.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:50 PM
mainerob: Please consult the post from me that is directly above your post. Thanks.
Posted by: CJ | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:50 PM
CJ: Unfortunately, I would project Carl Crawford to do a whole, whole lot better going forward than Raul or Dom.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:51 PM
Jack: As would I... yet thus far, Crawford has a lower WAR than Benny Frank. Go figure.
Posted by: CJ | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:52 PM
CJ, so if your post was sarcastic, then you DON'T think Veritak is old???
Seriously man, get real.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:53 PM
Papelbon doesn't scare me that much anymore. His dominance started to drop off right around the time the league upp'ed the testing. Not implying anything, just one of those things that makes you go hmmmmm. By no means is he a walk over, but he's not the shutdown guy he was a few years ago.
Posted by: SLO Phan | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 05:55 PM
Papelbon has 40 SOs this year against all of 6 walks. He has a 12 SO/9 ratio and a 6.67 SO/BB ratio to go with a 2.34 xFIP.
I'm afraid of Papelbon late in the game
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:01 PM
"I’d start him (Utley) over Pedroia."
Then you're an idiot.
Posted by: Marv | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:02 PM
CJ, you do realize the outfield has been injured far more than the Phils OF has, right?
Posted by: Rauls grandpa | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:04 PM
Papelbon ERA in 2009 (66 games) = 1.85
Papelbon ERA in 2011 (30 games) = 3.90
In 2009, he gave up all of 14 earned runs. He's give up 13 so far this year. His K rate is about the same as in 2009 but his BB rate is MUCH better than even 2009.
Like I said, he's not a walkover, but he's not what he used to be.
Posted by: SLO Phan | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:05 PM
The Phanatic clearly outpaces the Red Sox mascot.
Jerry Remy or Sarge Matthews? Advantage Sox.
"Red Sox Nation" or "Philadelphia Fans booed Santa" for most annoying cliche? Got to go with Booing Santa.
Cream Pie or Cheese Steaks? Real men eat cheese steaks. Phils get that one.
Posted by: denny b. | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:06 PM
Rauls grandpa: Sure I do. I'm not sure what you're suggesting. Our healthy players have been bad enough to generate negative WAR. Sometimes I'd rather they be injured and maybe we'd be better off!
Posted by: CJ | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:07 PM
Think I read somewhere today that Adrian Gonzales mashes Cliff Lee. Can't find it anywhere though - is it true?
Posted by: Spitz | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:07 PM
I would take a healthy Madson & Bastardo over a Papelbon & Bard combo. Red Sox bullpen is nothing to write home about either right now.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:08 PM
Fat: You got me... I truly believe the Red Sox lineup is terrible.
I considered using the [/sarcasm], but didn't believe anyone on here would be that dense.
Fool me once...
Posted by: CJ | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:08 PM
Marv: Do you have anything to support your preference of Pedroia over Utley, other than to call anyone with the opposing view "an idiot"? Their wOBAs are exactly the same this year, Pedroia's was slightly higher last year, and defensive metrics say Utley is a bit better. Utley's career offensive numbers are better.
They look to be at least comparable. I wouldn't say someone holding either view was "an idiot".
Posted by: DH Phils | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:08 PM
MG: When healthy, I think our bullpen is definitely better than what the Red Sox offer. And our staff, even without Oswalt, is superior in my mind simply because of the Big 3.
The offense on the other hand...
Posted by: CJ | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:09 PM
Well, I've got a dog emergency to deal with, so I can't talk down the Red Sox lineup anymore. Might be back on tonight for Game 1 of the World Series.
In the meantime, remember...
Don't Feed the Trolls.
Posted by: CJ | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:12 PM
Sounds like Madson won't be back as soon as he is eligible given Amaro's comments today. Sounds more likely that he will have a rehab stint and be back sometime after the ASB.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:17 PM
Perhaps this makes me an "idiot," but I am very hard-pressed to say that Pedroia is better than Utley. Pedroia has out-performed Utley in exactly one season -- last year. Even this year, Utley's OPS+ is 6 pts higher despite the fact that he's coming off a serious injury & began the season without having seen major league pitching in nearly 7 months.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:18 PM
With all due respect: position-by-position comparions, as a means of determining the better overall team, are hopelessly, timelessly pointless.
Posted by: RSB | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:26 PM
This poll is an absolutely hilarious example of BL's negativity. In particular the results for Howard and the rotation.
Only 1/4 of BLers think that the Phils' rotation is better than Boston's? Whaaaaaaaa?
Posted by: Phlipper | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:28 PM
CJ, you really are an irritable one. My line about you thinking Varitek isn't old was my own attempt at sarcasm. It's almost as if sarcasm doesn't translate well on a blog, and one shouldn't be surprised if a comment meant as sarcasm is treated as being not sarcastic in nature.
Of course, when I disagreed with what you wrote, my comment was directed at the content of your post. You, though, couldn't help but label me dense. Do you get away with this crap in real life? I certainly hope not.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:29 PM
The MLB Tonight guys more than once have used the word "intimidating" to describe the Phillies offense. . . . Huh?
Posted by: Bake McBride was Here | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:34 PM
I don't know. I feel pretty intimidated by the Phillies offense. What else would explain why I have to leave the room whenever they're hitting?
Posted by: aksmith | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 06:41 PM
A position-by-position comparison only makes sense if you are talking about defense.
If you want to compare offenses, it's better to compare positions in the respective batting orders. Better still is to compare the overall performance of each team's offense and to adjust for park effects, leagues, etc..
Posted by: derekcarstairs | Wednesday, June 29, 2011 at 05:32 PM