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Tuesday, June 14, 2011

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One could argue that Cole Hamels is the best lefthander in baseball right now. Better than CC, Lester, and Lee. Wow.

I'll take Hamels and Halladay over Jurrjens for the remainder of the year, but you couldn't argue if Jurrjens was named the All Star starter.

Just saw on Twitter:

"Indians prospect RHP Jason Knapp underwent rt shoulder surgery in New York City &will miss all of '11. Hopeful of healthy 2012 spring return"

Hamels, according to FanGraphs:
"Cole Hamels is getting far more ground balls on three of his pitches than he did last year, and as a result he has put himself in the discussion as one of the best lefties in the National League. Over the past 30 days, he was not just one of the top lefties, but rather the best pitcher in baseball overall."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-power-rankings-61311/

Repost from prior thread:

Heather, since Fangraphs estimates Rollins' value so far this year at about $6 Million (pro-rate out to about $15Mil), and given that short stops who can hit don't grow on trees, yes. Rollins this year has been the 6th most valuable SS in the NL, and throw in his contributions as a Phillie, yes.

Put another way, if you get rid of him, you would not be able to buy a better SS, or as good of one, for the same amount of money.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=971&position=SS

re: knapp-

right now carrasco is surprising people...

we have an historical pitching staff on the phils RIGHT NOW!

but our pharm system has developed a very nice pitching staff for other teams to enjoy...

I know - I know - it takes these young cogs to either be developed & excel here ( ex- hamels) or used as chips (ex- outman, knapp, carassco) to get today's established and best.

It was just an observation.

You're going to overpay someone, so it might as well be Jimmy unless you want to pay Reyes $20 mil a year. The shortstop market is essentially Reyes-Rollins-JJ Hardy and a bunch of dreck.

I see Wes and Jack having their usual reading comprehension problems in the last thread. Read the entire Sickels article, including the comments on each of the picks. Compare that to other recent drafts, including 2008. Not to mention, the top 3 this year are at least as toolsy as that one.

Also, to declare that "the 2008 Draft will likely go down as one of the best in recent history" because there are no obvious flops a mere 3 years later is laughable.

Let's see how many of that draft class are in the big leagues in 2014 before we declare it one of the best drafts in Phillies history.

I liked this year's draft because the Phils finally drafted some (a ton) of infielders. And, without the 1st rd pick there was no, big name/dollar guy that fell to them, which means I didn't get mad when they didn't take the big name/dollar guy.

I'd sign Rollins to a 3y/25million contract in a heartbeat. He may get 3/36 in free agency but I suspect he'll take a hometown discount.

I think Cole has an edge for the all-star starter based on some carry over wow-factor from how he finished last season.

Gavin Flyod, Happ, Outman, Knapp, Carasco, Drabek... there's a lot of pitching talent out there that originally was picked by the Phils. Not to mention the home grown arms on the ML roster and the stable of studs in the minors. ...but the Phillies don't draft well, they waste picks on toolsy washouts. It's true, I learned it on Beerleaguer.

Lincoln: The phillies do well drafting highly athletic, low polish guys in the later rounds. . . where they should be drafted.

I read an article in the Pgh. paper this morning by the world's most annoying sportswriter, stating a case that the Pirates should pick up Paul Maholm's $9.75M option for next year and/or extend him(believe it when I see it). The notable thing was, the author referenced Hamels as being "regarded as the best" lefty in the NL. Didn't mention Lee once. Not saying he's right but, Hamels stature has certainly grown this season.

Just my opinion, but it's hard to imagine how anyone who has watched the decline in Rollins - offensively and defensively, not to mention mental mistakes and total loss of focus at times - can want the Phils to sign him to a three-year contract for $25 million.

I like Rollins as a player and as a person. I have lots of respect for how he helped turn this franchise around over the last decade. And quite frankly, I don't even know who his replacement would be.

That said, there's no way I'm giving him a three-year deal for any amount, let alone $25 million.

"but the Phillies don't draft well, they waste picks on toolsy washouts. It's true, I learned it on Beerleaguer."

I think the Phils draft very well overall but I think their first three or so picks tend to be lottery tickets who will sign for slot.

Hugh, if I were to pick a pitcher to start a team around today, I'd probably pick either Hamels or David Price because a) LH pitching is always a premium, with all due respect to Lineceum or King Felix, and b) their age.

Lincoln Hawkes: Who said the Phils don't draft well? You can waste high picks on toolsy washouts and still draft well. Domonic Brown was a 20th rounder, Mike Stutes an 11th rounder, Ryan Howard a 5th rounder, Kyle Kendrick a 7th rounder, Ryan Madson a 9th rounder etc. etc.

You do get that, right?

Dan, don't you have to factor in injuries/decline with Rollins? Yes, 3/$36 is a fair deal if you don't expect him to miss significant time due to injury, and you don't expect him to significantly drop off after this year due to age. Neither of those assumptions are realistic, however. I'd think 3/$36 would likely be an overpay, with something like 3/$24-27 more fair for both sides.

Drew: Would the Phils be a better team with Wilson Valdez or Freddy Galvis at SS than with Rollins?

Clout - bringing up Stutes in the same paragraph as Brown, Howard, Madson, and even Kendrick is, well, interesting. The latter three guys have contributed heavily to the ML club. Brown has a pedigree and has been consistently at the top of prospect rankings. Stutes, as of now, is nothing more than the flavor of the day.

My reading comprehension is just fine. The author of the article in no way suggests the draft is the tooliset ever. He does EXPLICITLY state "As they usually do, the Phillies focused mainly on upside and tools".

I do not have the time nor desire to go back through the past 5 years or so of drafts and compare the toolsy rates of each draft.

clout, you may have an encyclopedic knowledge of recent draft so YOU can make the implication that this is the most toolsy draft ever. And if that is your opinion, then you should take credit for it. However, you are suggesting that Sickles has taken that opinion and he has not. At least not in that article.

It seems like a typical cowardly move by you. Suggest your own opinion but pin it to someone else. That way if it turns out to be true, you can take credit for it. If it is not true, then you can pass it off as Sickles opinion not your own.

Heather, given that he only missed half of one season lately, and that even with that injury his estimated "worth" is far more than 36 Million over the past 3 years, even with an expected decline he's very likely to earn that kind of money.

Also, I assume that by 2013 or 2014, Galvis will be our starting SS and Jimmy can play out his contract over at 3rd.

Wow, I agree with clout on something. Cool.

yeah, most of the people who are busting the phils' drafts are doing so with the knowledge that their overall drafts aren't terrible, but that they miss opportunities with their refusal to go above slot in the first few rounds and therefore pick toolsy lottery tickets who never realize their potential.

Yeah, like I said, I'm not sure what the solution is at this point. But I know the Phillies have to get younger and they can't be spending $8-to-10 million on every player in their lineup. And most importantly, I am not signing Rollins to anything more than a one-year deal.

I think his time in Philly has run its course. That's not a bad thing. It's not an insult to him. It happens. I just think that after this year, it's time to move on. Go younger and cheaper at SS and use that money to bolster other parts of the offense, sign Hamels, etc.

Wes: Here's why you have no reading comprehension. I said his analysis SUGGESTED the conclusion I drew. Not that Sickels himself stated it. You have to read the capsules on each of the players the team drafted.

Go back and try again. This time use your tiny brain instead of your instant emotional reaction to anything I post.

Spitz - I wouldn't argue with you. Hamels is at the top of the game now and should be for years.

I would love to see JRoll play this entire career here but a 3 yr/$36M deal? That is going to age like fish left out on the dock Stinky.

If Rollins leaves, it's unlikely we'll be able to find a shortstop who's a better hitter than he is. But downgrading the worst offensive player in your starting lineup is not exactly the same as, say, downgrading from Jayson Werth to Ben Francisco. And the downgrade would be substantially mitigated by the fact that the new shortstop would be batting 8th, instead of 1st.

If 3 years, $25M is what it costs to resign Rollins, then I would say we'd be better off taking that same money & upgrading at a position where we can actually replace a middling offensive player with a good one -- like, say, left field.

Just saw on Twitter:

"Indians prospect RHP Jason Knapp underwent rt shoulder surgery in New York City &will miss all of '11. Hopeful of healthy 2012 spring return"

Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 03:58 PM


Just heard this on MLB Network: The Toronto Blue Jays sent Kyle Drakek down to AAA.

Spitz: I agree. Stutes has proven nothing so far. But I thought he was worth mentioning because he is indeed the flavor of the day on BL and he was a late round pick.

With regard to Brown, he was NOT a top rated prospect until after his breakout 2008 season.

Drabek sent down to the minors...

"Drew: Would the Phils be a better team with Wilson Valdez or Freddy Galvis at SS than with Rollins?"

In the world in which we still have the reserve clause, and you can pay players anything you want, this is an easy question to answer. Rollins.

In the world in which Rollins might command 3/$36 (or more) and Valdez/Galvis/etc would command league minimum, and you can spend that difference to upgrade your club in other areas...harder question.

Galvis needed the best 60 games of his career to just get his OPS above .600 for the first time in his professional career, mainly due to his power outburst of a career high 6 HR.

Yes he's 21 and has a MLB glove, but I cant see him even putting up Exxon Castro numbers in the majors unless these first 60 games this year keep getting better for another 2-3 full seasons.

I understand that the Phillies could take more highly polished players early in the darft and keep their current philosophy for later rounds.

I just don't think it would increase the amount of ML talent they bring into the system. Other teams whiff on just as many if not more picks as the Phils.

I think the issue here is the relative cache of the players picked early. Fans hear names thrown around on ESPN and on websites and they want to see their team (in this case the Phils) pick what webgeist considers to be Big Name Talentâ„¢. The Phillies draft Mr. Whothef*ckisthat and fans get pissed off, despite the fact that he's just as likely to make the majors and much cheaper (allowing more money to be thrown at signability picks taken later, ala Brown and Colvin).

I think it's a smart philosophy.

clout I did read the capsules. He suggests a good amount of the players taken are tools players or raw (which one could take as a euphamism for toolsy).

However, the ONLY reference he makes to other drafts is that this one was "usual". There is NO suggestion of this draft being the toolsiest ever in that article.

If YOU have outside knowledge (the amount of toolsy players drafted in recent drafts) which you are using to compare and deduce that this draft is the toolsiest ever in recent years, then fine. That is YOUR opinion.

However, the very pointless argument I am making is that that article does NOT suggest toolsiest draft ever.

My brain is not tiny. My reading comprehension is fine. Yours in now in question.

Meant to say "the webgeist".

The problem with Galvis is there is little chance he'll be in Philly next year unless it's to have a cup of coffee in September. He's only 21, and has not really shown he'll every be able to hit at the ML level. Rollis has an extremely high chance (like, 95%) of outproducing him over the next 3 years, if both were to play at the ML level.

Everyone who's down on Rollins' producion needs to check to see what the average NL SS is doing this year. Offense is down everywhere, and the days of a SS hitting 40 HRs has come and gone.

Rollins is well above average for a SS, though I agree he should be hitting farther down in the lineup, he's far from the worst hitter on the Phils, and any person we can get to replace him would not come near his ##s, unless we pay far more than we would have to pay Rollins.

Drew: I tend to agree with you on Rollins.

"Heather, given that he only missed half of one season lately, and that even with that injury his estimated "worth" is far more than 36 Million over the past 3 years, even with an expected decline he's very likely to earn that kind of money"


Isn't the standard aging curve about -.5 WAR or so? If you use that as your benchmark for Jimmy, he's probably (barely) worth a 3/$36 contract as a roughly 2.5, 2.0, 1.5 WAR guy. However, that's assuming he misses hardly any time due to injury...which is hardly a fair assumption for a middle infielder on the wrong side of 30.

It's not fair to the organization for them to assume all of the risk and none of the reward.

BAP, given that the much maligned Raul Ibanez got 3 years, $33MM, what sort of LF upgrade do you think we'll be able to get on the free agent market for 3 years, $25MM?

Lincoln: I pretty much agree with your post except for this part: "The Phillies draft Mr. Whothef*ckisthat and fans get pissed off, despite the fact that he's just as likely to make the majors."

It would be interesting to see if players taken just before or just after some of these 1st and 2nd round toolsy players have a failure rate is just as high as the Phils' toolsy picks. I suspect that it isn't.

The types of players the Phils take in the top rounds have a higher failure rate, but a higher ceiling than the safer picks. They are, as Sickels described them, "risky with high bust potential."

What's the old saying? Into every Cole Hamels start a little rain must fall?

Current NEXRAD Radar

(CBP located at the + below the "e" in "Philadelphia")

*sigh*

I'm so looking forward to seeing a Rain Delay, followed by lots of Baez & Herndon, followed by a Kendrick start tomorrow afternoon.

(Hint: That was sarcasm. I am not looking forward to any of those things, at all.)

Does anyone know the Phils pitchers for this week. Specifically, who's going in the second game of the doubleheader?

Wes: Go back and read my post. I said his analysis SUGGESTED the conclusion I drew. Not that Sickels himself stated it.

I agree that 3/36 seems steep for Rollins at this point in his career. It's why I suggested 3/25.

8.33mil a year for what he is going to give you is actually kind of a bargin. He'll have to give a hometown discount, but I suspect he'll want to finish his career here as much as the Phils want him to. I really don't think he'll keep playing much past then. 35 is still young, he'll be rich, have 15 great seasons under his belt, and hopefully multiple rings. He'll move on to something new. At which point Galvis or Little Greene or whomever moves into his spot.

Something that many posters here don't get: It would be FAR easier to upgrade over Ibanez than it would be to upgrade over Rollins.

Rain predicted mainly before 8. One hour start delay wouldn't be so bad.

In the real world, in which all of us except clout reside, it isn't necessary to clairvoyantly declare who the replacement will be, in order to conclude that it would be foolish to pay X dollars for X number of years to Jimmy Rollins. And, in that same real world, the Phillies' 2012 shortstop options are not limited to Jimmy Rollins, Wilson Valdez, and Freddie Galvis. They can also trade for a shortstop, or sign one of the many available FAs -- about 5 or 6 of whom fall a lot closer to Jimmy Rollins on the offensive continuum than they do to Wilson Valdez. Undoubtedly, this is what the Phillies will end up doing if Rollins is not resigned.

Heather, you may be right, but I tend to think 3/36 is pretty reasonable for Jimmy, though of course I would love him to sign for less.

Bill James once said that as long as a player gives you anything in the current year, he's likely to give you something next year, too. Jimmy's having a good year so far, which is why I'm puzzled by those who think he's part of the problem, or not worth what he'll pretty clearly get on the open market next year.

Does anyone know the Phils pitchers for this week. Specifically, who's going in the second game of the doubleheader?


Doc

spitz: Maybe a guy like Willingham. And if it cost a bit more than $8M, my point is that some of that would-be Rollins money could go toward it.

Dan: A .687 OPS is a good year? Any GM who pays $12M per year for Jimmy Rollins is in serious need of emergency mental health intervention.

For comparison, Rey Ordonez posted a career .600 OPS. Just sayin'.

Clout: Do you think Jimmy Rollins will be the best SS option for the Phillies in 2014?

If not, then why are you advocating signing him to a 3-year deal?

Ronnie Belliard and Jake Borup both called it quits today.

Two guys the should should/must re-sign: Rollins (no better options, IMO) and Madson.

As far as deadline deals, In addition to bringing up Mayberry and letting Martinez go, get affordable RH and LH bats.

Cole should certainly be considered along with Doc as the starter in the ASG. With a better offense, they'd both have more wins. And their win totals aren't shabby as is.

If there's money for two of the following three: Rollins, Madson, Oswalt's option. Which two do you do?

For me, I go Rollins and Madson. Interested to see what the consensus is though. Obviously Oswalt's option is only a 1-year committment, while you have to go multi-year with the other two (presumably).

No f8king way do you sign JRoll for any of the figures mentioned already. I like his defense, used to love it but he is declining before our eyes. I cannot take three more years of him hitting a double off the wall or a homer every month and then popping up one or two outs a game until the next one because he thinks he still has pop. No f8king way.
Bring up a young guy who fields well and bat him 8th for all I care. You need that money for the bullpen.

I saw Belliard play at Lehigh Valley last week. I'm not surprised he quit.

Kutztown Fan:

I saw JC pitch last week, too...

Jack: Oswalt's deal only lasts for next year, but $14M is a lot of coin for that one year. Ultimately, I think we need to see how Oswalt does for the rest of the year before we have enough information to answer your question. I will say that, even if Oswalt continues pitching in his current form, I still think there would be a fairly prohibitive drop-off to the random FA acquisition who would replace him. I also think the Phillies would feel that drop-off a lot more than they'd feel the drop-off from a .690 OPS shortstop who bats leadoff to a .630 or .640 OPS shortstop who bats 8th.

bap: I'm pretty sure there would not be a FA acquisition to replace Oswalt.

You would probably see a rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Blanton and Worley. My guess is if they view Worley and Kendrick as about equal, the fact that you can pay Worley 400K instead of Kendrick $3M+ would give the nod to Worley.

Yo, new thread

bap, it's not just about OPS, it's about the other things as well: defense, baserunning, steals, etc.

All of the discussion here about what numb$r they should re-sign Rollins for is typical BL moronoracy at its' finest. It ass-u-mes the Phillies will be operating in a vacuum and that Rollins has no chance to improve as the season progresses.

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