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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

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To quote Scott Franzke - What a Day.

Hard to see them losing the division at this point. Marlins and Nats tied for last right now with identical 32 - 36 records.

Yea!!

Great comeback win. Chooch comes through in the clutch once again. Was very impressed with Dom's at-bat in the 10th, its so easy for players, rookies in particular, to go fishing for an outside pitch like that last one to try to win the game. Good on him for laying off to set up the winning run.

tonight is probably not the night to say this but i'd really rather them just DL Gload for the rest of the season. him not being able to play the field doesn't allow Charlie to rest some guys. i'd love for shane and jroll and utley to be able to get tmrw off but i don't think that's going to happen. for this series vs seattle i think i'd like to see charlie play valdez each day. DH each Howard, Jroll and Utley for a game with utley getting howard's dh day start a 1b

Braves lose; Phils are 5 games up in the NL East.

DeFratus promoted to Lehigh Valley.

Lehigh's bullpen is loaded. Too bad their starting staff is terrible, now that Worley is back up.

If you are going to have a PH who can't play the field (Gload), you might as well DL him and do the Twins a favor by taking Thome off their hands. Use him as your DH in the upcoming AL series and your primary PH the rest of the season. You know he can hit here. A RH power threat like that off the bench would be a hell of a lot better than Gload right now. You could even give him a couple games a first to spell Howard whenever Charlie decides to run out the garbage lineup.

Plus it would be nice to see #600 hit in south Philly.

"Pretty good. Pretty pretty good."

... Larry David ... and yours truly.

Disclaimer, I don't think that's the smart move. Just smarter than wasting a roster spot on Gload if he can't play the field.

If Gload would be DLed, we'd need to acquire another bat off the bench. We pretty much need to anyway & the benefits would far outweigh the cost in prospects and $.

"If Gload would be DLed, we'd need to acquire another bat off the bench"

Better yet would be to acquire a right-handed outfielder who can start, and make Ibanez an $11M version of Ross Gload.

Missed the game, but looks like fun. Team is doing work right now. Put the Fish away.

Daily Dom report: Not a good day average-wise, but he continues to show the skills you like to see: draw walks, make contact, hit for some power. With his raw talent, the hits will come if he aleady possesses those skills.

Dom has 10 walks, 11 strikeouts and 4 HRs in 89 PAs. Contrast that to Raul, who has 17 walks, 54 strikeouts and 8 HRs in 265 PAs.

Neither of them are great hitters right now, by any stretch. But there's a lot more going on to like from Dom than from Raul.

Maybe they DL Gload and can pickup Dobbs for a small price from fading Marlins - he seems to have regained his stroke.

Also, Belliard is retiring from the Iron Pigs and baseball.

Braves showed the game during the rain delay. Hope they got to see both the ninth and tenth before they had to play again.

Nary a mention of Charlie's handling of the roster throughout this series.

quincy - here's one - Manuel's never giving Raul another game off. He just gets worse.

Even if I bought that, I, personally, would give him today off because a player simply can't be worse than he was last night.

Lincoln Hawkes, I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Thome is still batting lefthanded.

I was really impressed with Dom Brown's walk last night. Contrast that with the veteran Ibanez, who was flailing away at everything. Brown's still figuring things out, but that at bat really showed something.

I got grilled for saying "drop Gload" a couple of weeks ago, but I still stand by my point. He is a pinch hitter with no power, no speed, and no defense. WOOF.

Gload ought to be DLed and bring Mayberry up. Mayberry can give Ibanez some time off and he would be a useful glove off the bench.

It's really rather ridiculous to have Gload taking up roster space. All he can do is pinch hit and hit a single at most. Any player taking space on a roster ought to be able to do more than that.

Nothing like playing a reeling Cubs and Marlins team back to back to get you feeling pretty good about your team again.

Amen, Fatti. To their credit, Marlins came out in the 2d game with some energy. It will be hard for them today, after that late loss, to be as upbeat with the mound matchup and the early start. I almost feel bad for them. Almost.

I'm putting the over/under on IP by Vazquez at 4.1.

Has Dom Brown put a ball to left field yet? Every time I seem him bat its to right side of 2nd and I'm wondering when theyre gonna start putting the Howard shift on the Skinny Piece...

From the previous thread

I'm guessing that Halladay's not buying Ibanez a beer after tonight's game. Posted by: Andy | Wednesday, June 15, 2011 at 10:05 PM

I'm betting he is. You see, good teammates are like that, and from everything I've seen and heard, Roy is the epitome of a good teammate. In fact even though the ball Lopez hit should have been caught, I bet Roy is more pissed at himself for giving Lopez a two strike cookie that he could hammer like that than he is at Raul for misplaying it. That's just the kind of guy that he seems to be.

I agree that the Howard shift would work for D Brown.
I also agree Ibanez is a flailing fool.

But I think Manual showed his managerial genius when he pinch ran for Gload last night.

Cipper: Brown crushed one to Left Center on Tues. night. Would've had a decent shot at going out if not for the wind.

GTown: I was about to post the same thing, and also mention the ball Nix caught last week... but I think Cipper is talking more about balls on the ground to the left side.

quincy.mcneal Gotcha. That makes sense.

Cantu, DFA'd by the Padres...think he's worth picking up? He hits well in CBP and usually kills the Phillies

Doc's ERA+: 150
Cole's ERA+: 155

Discuss.

usually kills the Phillies.

Which means he would do absolutely nothing as a member of the phillies

"Hard to see them losing the division at this point."


limoguy, it's not hard, actually. Another 4 game losing streak (they've had 2) and the Braves are right back in it. A bad bounce here or there and the Bravos are on top again.

Now, if we were in the middle of September I might agree with you.

"But I think Manual showed his managerial genius when he pinch ran for Gload last night."

I hope you're being facetious... Really.

With all the giddiness over winning six straight we still havent addressed the need for a RH bat in the lineup. You saw it last night. They werent even sniffing a hit off of Choate in the 8th, horrible swings. This will be the death knell in the playoffs and or World Series unless it is addressed. Cant imagine anyone ever having a worse game than Ibanez last night !!!

Oh, and I know it's been mentioned before, but I post this for Jack anf others:

Yesterday Kyle Kendrick outpitched Roy Halladay.

Just sayin'. :)

I know this ain't saying much, but Cantu would be a big upgrade over Mini-Mart on the bench.

But, Wes, he's not "versatile".

Fat: Cole has outpitched not only Doc, but everyone else in baseball over the past 5 weeks.

gtown/quincy are right, Brown has lashed at least 3 liners to left center in the past week.

Out of all the craziness from yesterday, i know beerleaguer must have exploded when Howard hit a grounder to third base when the shift WASNT on.

Wait, why would you want Dom to hit ground balls to the left side?

some #'s on Raul:

OBP .289
wOBA .303
BB% 6.4%
ISO .163
BABIP .274 (reasonable)

these are not good numbers for a corner outfielder. we all know about his defense, but it is backed up by UZR (-13.1).

i'm wondering if Ruben's efforts to land a corner OF are to replace Raul. it's starting to get to that point.

In re: Cantu

His 2011 BABIP is .216. His career BABIP is .297. He's owed the pro-rated portion of $850K. He's "only" 29.

I have to think that once he's out of his current situation, he will rebound to some extent. He would be a marked improvement over Mini-Mart. In fact, replacing Mini-Mart with Cantu, DLing Gloade and bringing up Mayberry would provide enough flexibility, power and speed as is needed and would probably be as much bench improvement as is financially feasible.

Ive been reading a lot on here about the sellout streak and while I agree it may be a little questionable, I think there is a reason for the empty seats. I was at the game last night and i can tell you that at any given time there are about 2000 to 3000 people walking around the ballpark. Success breeds an explosion of interest in casual fans. The casual fans I'm seeing barely use their seats. It works for the club because those wanderers are spending money. It's irritating but I can tell you last night the place was packed. I thought the air went out of the stadium when the Fish went up 4-1 but nobody left until very late. I attribute that to the fact that it seemed like a lot of people attended both games. Many seemed tired or more than a little hammered. It got very loud in the 9th and 10th innings though.

as an aside, who knew canucks had it in them to riot.

Conshy: That better be the idea. If you get a corner OF, and then don't replace Ibanez, what the hell was the point?

I know Dom hasn't been hitting great, but he's already better than Raul, and he's going to continue to get better.

jack - i couldn't agree more. let's hope management feels the same. raul gets a long leash due to his veteran status and long track record, but when it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck...

awh -
"""But I think Manual showed his managerial genius when he pinch ran for Gload last night."

I hope you're being facetious... Really.

""

Correct! and much more.

OK, after yesterday's stellar effort, I've decided to provide a

Phillies 5th Starter Report:

So far, the 5th starter on the Phillies has taken the ball 15 times, Blanton - 6, KK - 5, Worley - 4. The team's record in those starts is 7 - 8.

That includes a horrible start by Worley against the Mets [3 IP, 8 R, 5 ER], a bad spot and very mediocre start by KK against COL [3 IP, 5 ER] and PIT [5 IP, 4 ER], and of course Blanton who itched to a 10.45 ERa in his first 2 starts of which the Phils actually manged to win one of them.

In reviewing the whole of it, it seems to me that the really bad starts they've gotten from KK and VW (should we call him "Bug"?) have been when they weren't stretched out and being yanked back and forth between the rotation and the 'pen.

Obviously, the Phillies would benefit a great deal if they would just make a decision as to who (KK or VW) is going to be the 5th starter and just leave him there.

IMO it's not so much about "roles" or who would be better as the number 5 (I rate it almost a dead heat) as it is just letting whoever goes in the 5th spot stay in a rythm and stay stretched out to pitch multiple innings every 5th day.

The reason for the empty seats yesterday afternoon, and why it was still a sellout is simple. It was a makeup game. Sellouts are based on tickets sold not actual fans in the seats.

It is not hard to believe that several thousand fans who bought tickets for a night game several weeks ago, were not able to attend a day game yesterday.

fwiw, this from Buster Olney today on the Phillies search for a RH OF after acknowledging Amaro's denials, "the Phillies are making inquiries on established and pricey veterans."

Wes:I agree about last night but I'm talking about in general. I've been to 6 games so far this year and there are lots of empty seats but you can barely get around in the concourses. I just love a full ballpark.

Donc: A full CBP is nice and all, but I miss the intimidation factor of the old Vet. Opposing teams came in worried about being attacked by feral cats or blowing out their knees on the concrete, rippled turf; you just can't replicate that sort of home field advantage.

it's amazing to me to Raul still is not be able to recogize an offspeed or breaking pitch and Brown is already alble to do so. Brown spit on a few to work that walk last night and Raul went down on 3 pitches only 1 of them being an actual strike, the others weren't close and he chased them both.

When do we expect to see May, Cosart and Colvin?

GRAB: 2013?

They may get traded, or at least one of those prospects.

Honestly, Ibanez is really the only large hole on this team right now, if he continues to hit like he's been hitting all year (sub .300 OBP, sub .250 BA..)

Yes, we have a 3rd baseman who hits like a 2B, but we have a 2B who hits like a 3B, so that's a wash. Both Polly and Chase play really good defense. J-Roll has pretty much been right around his career average OPS/OPS+ this year, and he still plays a fine defense. Howard is who Howard is right now, and he'll rack up the RBI as the year goes on and have a few torrid stretches where he'll carry this team. Dom Brown may not light the world on fire this year, but the walk rate is encouraging, he has pop, gives good ABs, and he's the future in RF, so he should get the majority of the starts unless he completely implodes. Vic has been terrific this year, and as always, is playing a fine CF. Ruiz is probably the backbone of this team.

Who does that leave? If we make a trade to supplant a starter and it's not Raul, I'll be VERY surprised.

Right, the place is always packed, but some games (like the day game yesterday) you see a lot of empty seats all day and other games (most night games) you don't see the same amount.

Of course, to add to my above post, 1-4 in the rotation has been absolutely terrific, and the 5th starter role has been filled adequately enough by KK, VW and JB. The bullpen has been a strength this year. Would be it be nice to have a little more faith that Contreras can stay healthy and effective? Yes, but with the innings our starters throw, the bullpen's deficiencies are mitigated. There's definitely a bit of a hole here, but not as large as Ibanez in LF.

"When do we expect to see May, Cosart and Colvin?"

I have a hunch you'll see one of their names in the article about the trade bringing in the expensive, veteran RH bat.

GRAB: to expand, all 3 pitchers are in hi A right now. May and Cosart are doing well and Colvin has had some injury issues this year and is stuggling a little. The Phillies seem to want to keep them together and with Colvin's struggles this year and May's wildness & demotion last year/ Cosart's past injuries/ awesomeness of current rotation, I don't think the Phillies are going to aggressively push them. My guess is that all 3 are in AA next year and I think in 2013 you'll see a mid-season promotion for the one that performs best and a late season callup for the others, depending on performance of course.

This type of play from the offense is what we've been waiting all season up to this point. How sweep it is!

So much for all the hype surrounding the Braves. I've said it before, the only team in the NL that beats the Phils is...The Phils.

Hopefully, we can do well during the next strectch of games and run away and hide. That would be great.

Basically agree with Jbird's analysis on Colvin, Cosart and May, although with the obvious giant caveat that one or more may get traded, or suffer a serious injury, or simply not perform well enough (which JBird did acknowledge).

I still believe Cosart is the best of the group and the only one likely to be a front-end starter someday in the majors.

Sellouts = tickets sold. I believe yesterday they failed to re-sell out all the tickets that were redeemed for other games after the rain out. Those were the tickets they were hawking in the run up to the game.

Ibanez is tough to watch because when he fails at the plate, he really fails. His numbers aren't great over the last 6 weeks but, the total numbers look much worse than he's been. Still, regardless of his production or his potential to get hot, he should be moved to the bench because he's just terrible in the field. To move him to the bench, though, they need to bring somebody in who's worth making that move. That's not likely to be the most productive thing in terms of team morale so, you gotta make it count. Otherwise, bring up Mayberry and lighten the load on Ibanez / settle for the offense you have now which is good enough to win a pennant.

Lineup

Rollins 6, Vic 8, Polly 5, Howard 3, Raul 7, Ruiz 2, Brown 9, Martinez 4, Lee 1

since we're talking the farm, anyone know what happened to Tyson Gillies? he came back, played 3 games and hasn't played now since Sunday. Did he join the same suicide cult as Blanton and Schneider?

Raul really earned that promotion back up to the 5-spot in the lineup.

Last year around this time, a friend of mine in Atlanta talked smack about the Braves being in first place. I reminded him that the standings at the end of September were what matters. I remind Beerleaguers the same thing.

GRAB and jbird, IMO the more interesting question is "who are the next 'young' arms to get called up from the farm?"

Schwimer? Aumont? Ramirez? Carpenter? Rosenberg(2.42 ERA as a starter)? Mathieson? Cisco?

Jack, I'd usually be upset at Raul being in the 5 hole, but the Phillies are facing Vazquez. It's hard to get worked up about it.

Forgot: DeFratus?

Kutztown, MOTO.

Guess they're hoping Raul's lifetime OPS vs Vasquez means something (1.173).

Ruben's 0-1 vs Vasquez.

Bringing up Mayberry is the answer unless we want to again trade tomorrow for today.

Here are some facts. recall how down everyone was on Dobbs in the past. Few here regretted his departure. He is doing very well now .357/.418/.312 and the explanation is he plays daily. If you look at his history back to his college days it was clear that he had the tools to be a regular. We just didn't give him a chance.

I am sure Mayberry if he was used regularly would likely develop into a .280 hitter with 20 HRs. He has the tools he should get the chance. Its stupid to keep him down at the farm. Not to mention its a shame he is wasting his opportunities.

Chicago being only 4.5 games out of 1st now probably kills my dream of getting Carlos Quentin. For teams that are already at least 9 games out, and have veteran, expensive RH bats you're probably talking Pence, Cuddyer, Soriano, Kemp. Did I miss someone? Jayson Werth (j/k)

5th Starter Derby ain't fair.
Kendrick draws Elih "Tomato Can" Villanueva.
Worley gets King Felix.

"Sellouts are based on tickets sold not actual fans in the seats."


Yep. I was at the game yesterday afternoon. Several no-shows.

That was fine with me. We got to spread out in our section and enjoy the warmth of the sun and the game.

All I care about is the tix being sold. As long as that happens the FO will have the confidence to keep investing in the team.

That's good for the team and good for us too!

"I am sure Mayberry if he was used regularly would likely develop into a .280 hitter with 20 HRs."

what on God's green earth gives your that impression? certainly not his minor league track record. and i like mayberry, but those numbers are a pipe dream.

Anon II- I'd put my money on Defratus with Schwimmer being 2nd. I don't know that either gets a call before Sept. though unless there's an injury.

Playing exclusively against lefties I think a .260 with 12 hr's would be a better bet.

It was obvious to anyone that as long as Dobbs can get a .381 BABIP, he'll be a great everyday player...

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2158&position=3B

The following Power Rankings are clearly the most important to ever be issued by any ranking agency, beat writer, publication or blog:

"http://bleacherreport.com/articles/727299-mlb-power-rankings-ranking-all-the-mlb-mascots"

RK: Maybery is 28 and has like 3,000 minor league plate appearances. What he is now is what he will always be -- a fine defensive outfielder, who can hit LHP & pop a homerun now & then. If used as an everyday player, however, he would be lucky to hit .240. And he neither hits enough homeruns, nor draws enough walks, to make up for a .240 batting average.

awh: It's the Phillie Phanatic and then everyone else. The Phanatic should be #1-10 and then the next guy is at #11.

Mayberry being a .280 is laughable. Not only can Mayberry not hit minor league pitching at a .280 clip, but he is a non prospect at his age. What you see is what you get.

Mayberry had plenty of chances to play every day in the minors and he produced mediocre numbers. What makes people possibly believe he'd improve upon those numbers with overexposure to advanced pitching?

He's a fine 4th or 5th OF but let's not get carried away. I do agree he should be on the roster right now, though.

The Phanatic is the Babe Ruth of mascots. Sure, there are others you can talk about, but at the end of the day it always comes back to him.

And you're banned for 1 week for linking the bleacher report.

to pile on the bleacher report bashing going on a few days ago, i just read an article about pedro feliz playing in camden that may have been the biggest waste of 90 seconds i can imagine.

summary: pedro feliz used to play for the giants, then the phillies. he was really good defensively. now he plays for the riversharks. he'd like to play again the majors. who knows, he just might.

"If you look at his history back to his college days it was clear that he had the tools to be a regular. We just didn't give him a chance."

*giggle*

Anon II, you're banned 1 week too!

I'm not clicking another Bleacher Report link until it's some good WAGS in lingerie stuff.

Few thoughts from the game:

- Empty seats. It was just a lot of casual fans walking around especially people in their late teens through their mid/late 20s. I wish the girl behind me who didn't shut up for nearly 9 innings would have gotten up. Trust me, you really don't have that many interesting stories to tell at 22 and as a recent Drexel graduate.

- Halladay looked like he was fighting himself from the get go with his offspeed stuff. Didn't look particularly comfortable with any one pitch last night which is kind of rare.

Still, if Ibanez actually makes either one of the plays in 4th inning he should have made, Halladay gives up 2 runs over 7 IP. Buck also did a really nice job of making an adjustment to poke a flare out to CF to drive in the runs. It would be nice to see Ibanez do that instead of some of the comically bad swings he had last night in a few key spots. Never shortens the bat even when behind in the count.

- Fish and Braves beefed up their LHP relievers to deal with the Phils. Choate shut down the Phils but Webb wasn't able to. One of the more interesting things to follow this season with the lefty-heavy Phils' lineup.

- Is Ruiz the best #8 hitter the Phils have every had the past few years? He has good patience, takes his share of BBs, has a little speed, and hits for a decent AVG out of the #8 spot.

- Utley gets a lot of attention but Vic continues to be the best overall offensive player this season so far for the Phils. Maybe besides Utley is the only Phils who can hurt the opposing team in multiple ways (speed, some power, high average).

RK is Dennyb on PEDs, as far as prospects are concerned.

Anon, your anti-Bleacher Report stance has been clear for a long time now, and I, for one, am sick of it. My grandfather and grandfather's grandfather both wrote for Bleacher Report, and they made a damn fine living doing so. They were able to provide for their families for years, and I wouldn't be here today without the employment that a prestigious source of journalism provided to an otherwise impoverished family.

I meant to direct my last post to Dan in Philly. Ooops...

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