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Wednesday, June 22, 2011

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The Phils also lead all of baseball in fewest runs allowed, but we all know that already...

And as an aside, I take exception to you calling Ibanez a "qualified" left fielder (ba-dum-ba).

repost:

interesting note from David Murphy:


On the season, Phillies five-hole hitters had combined to produce the third-lowest batting average (.210) and slugging percentage (.322) in the NL.

Little Ollie - they are rentals b/c, obviously, they are free agents after the season. they MAY sign here, but who knows.

any answer to why Bastardo was in the game let alone pitched a fulling inning?

full inning, whoops

pb - he was already warmed up. i'm assuming charlie thought the inning would be over sooner than it was and didn't want to get another reliever up.

WHY BEERLEAGUER TALKS ABOUT PROSPECTS:

So yesterday we spent a limited amount of time bashing Altherr and Jiwan James, while highlighting how Valle had been raking and noting that Singleton was still struggling.

Last night, Altherr managed an RBI double (no big deal but); James went 3 for 4 with a walk, and Singleton went 3 for 4 with a double, a homer and 6 RsBI. Valle took an 0-5 collar with 3 Ks.

Galvis, of course, continued to be his torrid, real deal self going 2/4 with a double.

with a few more steroids galvis may be ready to replace jimmy next year.

Andy: so Tyson Gillies should be going on a tear any day now.

It's funny to read stuff like "the Phillies scored 9 runs despite only 5 hits" (philly.com) after watching the game.

Were Howard and Polanco supposed to leap backwards and swing the bat like some sort of mutant Ichiro?

And if some of the other guys swung at the awful pitches being thrown think of what they'd come up with to describe that.

On the fifth spot problem. What about Utley hitting fifth?

Obviously this creates a lefty-heavy bottom of the order, which is the main reason Polly is in the five, but Howard and Utley have proven they can hit lefties, and late in games, Ben Francisco becomes a high option bat in exchange for Raul or Dom. You can even move Chooch up a spot or two to lessen the blow:

Rollins
Victorino
Polanco
Howard
Utley
Ibanez (Francisco)
Ruiz
Brown (Francisco)

Ludwick's numbers are better away, as you'd expect, but there's a few intriguing difference. Here's his basic splits;

PA/AVG/OBP/SLG/sOPS+
Home: 156/.232/.321/.370/92
Away: 143/.279/.324/.419/113

Same OBP but very different AVG numbers. I think he's a more aggressive hitter outside Petco Park. He works a lot more walks at home. Some more stats:

K/BB/HR/RBI/BaBIP
Home: 23/16/4/16/.252
Away: 32/9/5/29/.326

Not sure how good that would really be but it's certainly better than what Ibanez, Brown, or Francisco have contributed. Although, Ibanez has been pretty good at home (OPS .849 this year).

***so Tyson Gillies should be going on a tear any day now.***

No doubt he will...unfortunately it will likely be his hamstring.

Galvis deserves his own thread. Encouraging season. Terrific month. Glove might be best in all of the minors. Really need to start paying attention to SS.

I was giving the Phillies stats against certain pitchers in the game thread last night.

Howard and Utley both have very good numbers off Miller in their careers. (4 for 11 and 3 for 9) respectively.

They both have bad numbers against Tallet. LaRussa should've went to Tallet in that spot.

On another note, and one which will make Jack happy, Ryan Howard's walk rate has really been soaring lately. He is now 8th in the league in walks and on pace to draw 81, which would be his highest total since 2008. Last year, he drew only 59 walks and finished 36th in the NL.

One suspects that these soaring walk totals are related to the complete absence of a No. 5 hitter. Nonetheless, if the pitchers aren't going to pitch to him, I'm happy to see Howard resist the temptation to swing at slop. Earlier this year, he went through a long period where he was absolutely refusing to take a walk.

Galvis has really turned a corner this year in AA.

He's gone from non-prospect to potential Top 20 guy with an impressive physical maturation that has added a good 15-20 lbs to his frame. He's got a JRoll build now.

That's Top 20 in our System, not the Minors...just to clarify.

BAP - good point, and very encouraging.

JW - make it happen cap'n.

Murphy's article:

Pretty good article on how is available in RF. Usual OF suspects (Willingham, Cuddyer, Ludwick, Rivera) and a few other names including R. Johnson & Spilborghs. Also mentions Keppinger and J. Baker.

One of the commentators brings up Heisey on the Reds.

If Contreras isn't able to prove he is healthy the next month, I would still rather see them acquire a solid bullpen arm especially one under contract next year that would give them a bit of leverage with Madson who I think is going to ask for a 8-figure annual salary on his new deal.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110622_Phillies_Notebook__Will_right_bat_be_available_at_right_time_for_Phillies_.html

Wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Phils double-down on the bullpen given the middling options available for a right-handed OF bat. If you are going to pay a retail price, you want quality. Ludwick or Willingham aren't it.

Almost wonder if the Phils couldn't get that stud bullpen arm and then pick up a right-hand bat via a waiver deal in August for a secondary guy like a R. Johnson or Rivera to give them an upgrade for the postseason.

I just had a crazy visual of mutant ichiros

"It's funny to read stuff like "the Phillies scored 9 runs despite only 5 hits" (philly.com) after watching the game."


not really that funny. scoring 9 runs on 5 singles is pretty unusual. i don't think the sentence was meant to be disparaging the hitters, just stating a fact.

i mean, if someone told you that a team had five singles in an inning and asked you to guess how many runs were scored, you'd probably think 2 or 3, 4 tops. and that's accounting for a reasonable number of BBs you might guess the team also collected.

I have a hunch the Phillies wouldn't say Galvis was ever a "non prospect", considering they were raving about his glove all along, and moving him up through the minors, despite his relative youth. He's not exactly hitting like a young ARod, but he did bulk up a bit (hopefully, not the same way as a young Arod).

"He's got a JRoll build now."

When can we expect Galvis's effort to hit the longest home run (highest infield popup)?

Pass on Reed Johnson. And especially pass on Spillbourghs. I hope if they begin considering him they look at his home/away splits. He's IRL away from Coors. ("Ibanez Replacement Level")

***I have a hunch the Phillies wouldn't say Galvis was ever a "non prospect", considering they were raving about his glove all along, and moving him up through the minors, despite his relative youth. He's not exactly hitting like a young ARod, but he did bulk up a bit (hopefully, not the same way as a young Arod). ***

He went from around 155 lbs to 170 lbs from Age 20 to Age 21.

That's a pretty normal maturation. He'll probably add a little bit more as he enters his mid-20s.

I also agree that he was never a "non-prospect" as he did make it to AA at Age 19 but that was purely on his awesome glove. He's gone from possible John McDonald type upside to maybe Adam Everett type upside with his nice half-season so far. He's finally, for the first time, actually driving the ball with authority whereas before he was always overpowered and got soft singles/grounders.

Galvis may only be 17 if the Phillies signed him at age 12.

For a comp, Everett posted a .741 OPS in his Age 22 season in AA Trenton. Galvis, a similar level of defender, is posting a .736 OPS right now in his Age 21 season.

Rollins posted a .798 OPS in his Age 21 season in AAA Scranton for another comparison and to show how superior Rollins was as a prospect.

Make jokes if you want about Galvis' increase in bulk, but the data state that he is tie for 9th in home runs in our minor league system - ahead of folks like Singleton, Valle and Bozeid.

Andy - Is 'IRL' or 'Ibanez Replacement Level' ~.250 AVG/~.700 OPS?

I have a hunch the Phillies wouldn't say Galvis was ever a "non prospect"


agreed. a guy who they were saying had a major league ready glove at SS when he was 19 wouldn't really be in the non-prospect category. i think they thought/think he at least projects to a utility player.

that said, his jump in offense is extremely encouraging - probably at the top of my list for minor league positives this year. if he continues, it is going to make the decision on what to do with jimmy really interesting. i was in the camp that looking at the totality of circumstances, the phillies only real option was to commit to a 3 year/$35-$40M extension for him and hope for the best. if galvis continues to progress, it's going to be that much harder to bite the bullet for that many years and that much money.

If Galvis ever learns to take a walk, then his prospect status will reach something pretty close to elite status.

Assuming his improved hitting continues, that is.

Spillbourghs away split for this year is ~.203/~.452; but for his career, yeah, those are right.

I'm thinking that they are equally "talented" this year.

i should have went to the minors, beerleaguer would rave about my ability to never swing at a pitch and pray for a walk every time up.

I want the Phils to clinch early; then they can bring up Freddy for September and let him see the bigs for a while. It'd be fun to see a) how his glove plays and 2) how he handles real pitching.

lore - We don't need to rave about you; you're raving all by yourself.

I wouldn't be upset with a trade for Ludwick if his contract wasn't worth $6.7 mil...Anyone know how much of that the Phils would have to absorb?

If we can afford someone in that range, I don't know why the Phils wouldn't at least make an attempt at Carlos Quentin, who's making $5 mil this year, and would slide in seamlessly as a #5 hitter, bring rejuvenated life to the left field bleachers, and give Howard a ton of lineup protection compared to whoever we decide to slot in at the 5 spot now...He's arb-eligible in 2012 and a FA in 2013, but we will free up some cash once Ibanez is gone and at least hold onto him through next year if not longer. Am I missing something or what?

Terrance: You're missing this: why on earth would a team that's only 4.5 games out of 1st place trade away a guy with a .906 OPS?

I don't dispute that Ludwick may provide an upgrade over Ibanez, but I'm still on the fence. .802 career OPS (114 OPS+) and he'd be a pure rental as he's signed only through the end of this season.

Has anyone seen any speculation on what the Padres would want in return? (please say an injured, overweight, overpaid "innings eater"...)

There's about 3 months left in the season so Ludwick would cost about $3.4 million give or take.

Bell would cost about $3.75 million the rest of the way.

Re the 'just 5 hits' deal:

It's the idea that somehow hits are the only things that can lead to runs. If the headline would say "Phils get 11 baserunners in inning" is 9 runs so unexpected?

It's the same kind of thinking that had Mike Schmidt always lamenting he didn't hit .300.

Schmidt was a career .267 hitter...clearly mediocre overall.

EFF, it's a pretty common assumption, and not an unwarranted one, by baseball fans that a 9 run innings comes on the back of a team racking up lots of hits, including XBH. That's generally how 9 run innings work.

To say that the Phillies scored 9 runs "despite" 5 hits is not in any meant to denigrate the Phillies offense. It's just to showcase the unusual nature in which they scored 9 runs.

hmm, those rollins' comp numbers sort of put things in perspective regarding galvis. excitement officially tampered.

it is possible that rollins' numbers in AAA where actually higher than they might have been in AA because there are few elite prospects in AAA? or is that totally reaching?

Well, you know what they say about when you assume...

Rollins posted a .740 OPS in 598 PA in his Age 20 season in AA for comparison.

How is it a common assumption that huge innings are fueled by hits?

They are almost always fueled by walks and errors.

How many hits would you have to get (on average) to score 9 runs in an inning without walks or defensive miscues?

Well, one thing to keep in mind is that in his prime, Rollins was an offensive force and one of the best shortstops in the game. Galvis doesn't have to hit like Rollins did to be a good starting shortstop, although it would be nice.

Last night's game was a direct result of the day's run differential discussion.

It's like the reverese Beerleaguer jinx. Nothing proves the futility of analyzing daily run differential swings like last night's affair.

CJ: eh, i dont know - if the conclusion of analyzing last nites run differential is - the cardinals bullpen sucks - then I think thats a pretty solid evaluation.

Rollins SO/BB ratio was much better in the minors than Galvis...even if you just looked at Freddy's numbers from this season. Rollins simply didn't SO in the minors with a SO% of just over 7.8%.

Galvis is striking out about 14.8% of the time this year...basically double that of Jimmy.

I also wonder, though, if one dynamic is that Galvis is learning the hitting trade in an era where pitchers are throwing effective cut fastballs. I'm of the opinion that the next generation of hitters to emerge will have learned to discern that pitch and will have better adjusted to it than the current crop of old dogs.

Gsl: minimum of 11 singles
(assuming every hit allows going First to Third for runner on first) OR
10 Doubles or Triples

And Galvis doesn't have to have a season with more than 20 of every kind of XBH and SB to be a valuable property.

8 singles and a homer.

lorecore: We didn't need last night's game to know St. Louis' bullpen sucked! :-)

Dan Uggla with a 2-run homer, Braves lead 2-0 over the Blue Jays.

I love how after every hit by Uggla, Braves fans declare "he's back!"

After Uggla went 5-11 against Houston earlier this month, he went 5 for his next 38.

I've yet to see any stretch by Uggla this year that tells me he's come around.

Since May 12th, Uggla is actually hitting worse than he was before May 12th.

Through 5/11: 159 PA, 209/264/392, 656 OPS, 6 HR
Since 5/12: 145 PA, 137/214/237, 450 OPS, 4 HR

Jose Bautista gets one back on a solo shot, his 2nd HR in his last 23 games (he's off the juice, I heard).

Maybe Uggla is auditioning to be the Phils #5 hitter.

Freddy Garcia shutting down the Reds today - allowed 1 hit thru 4 innings.

Brian McCann with a 2-run homer, Braves lead 4-1.

Unlike Uggla, McCann is the real deal. Best hitting catcher in baseball, right?

7 more k's for Beachy today.

that's 53 k's in 47 innings. where is this coming from??

conshy matt: Beachy definitely has the stuff to be a big strikeout pitcher. He averaged 11.9 K/9 in his 119.1 IP in AA and AAA last year. He's a really good prospect, much better than Mike Minor.

Toronto flat out sucks. Lost to Minor and now on their way to losing to Beachy.

"much better than Minor"

Minor was ranked #37th best prospect in all of baseball heading into 2011.

11k's in 5 innings for Beachy. on my fantasy bench.

Good news is we have Toronto next weekend.

Little Ollie: Don't worry. By next weekend, Toronto's pitchers will be out of their funk and pitching like Cy Youngs against the Phils.

lorecore: You're right, somehow I had them flipped. Beachy is a year older than Minor... I thought it was the other way around.

Bottom line: As usual, Atlanta is flush with starting pitching prospects.

A galvis that can't hit is just a younger Wilson Valdez

Bottom line is they've got to get a RH bat. We all knew that as soon as Werth left. Another LH bat wouldn't hurt either as Gload cannot run. A reliever from each side would be nice as well.

All of those "needs" obviously will not be filled externally so RAJ must make a decision on what's most important to him. He may do something or he may do nothing. We'll see.

Blue jays are awful

Long day of travel tomorrow. Heading to Philly to catch the A's v Phillies series. Been looking forward to attending this series since the schedules came out!

leave wilson alone... hey he ended he rally last night - didn't he? like only a good rally killer can

besides with valdez & martinez at the back end of the lineup.. we have our own self- service gas station convenience store..

Exxon Mini Mart!

A lot of insight there DPat, thanks!

Thanks BB. That made me laugh.

DPatrone,
I just want to clarify. Is that info from you directly, or one of your sources?

I would add to DPat's list a 19 year old shortstop with 60 homerun power and 60 SB potential. I mean as long as we are asking for the moon and the stars. Also a winning lottery ticket wouldn't be a kick in the nuts either. What a preposterous post.

There is nothing not to like about Ludwig in this park and Bell especially since Bell may be easier to resign than Madson at this point being a Borasite. But honestly, what cheap "ready for the show" talent can the Phils afford to give up at this point?

"He may do something or he may do nothing. We'll see."

i think he's going to throw the whole offense back and start anew, kinda like you can do in scrabble.

RG - i agree, the acoustics in CBP would be perfect for Ludwig. i'd take him over Mozart, Bach or Chopin.

Any status on the severity of Polly's hand?

Phillies game notes on CSN ends with a good question:

Are there any active (or former) managers that you dislike more than Tony La Russa?

Bobby Cox? maybe
No current mgrs.


Nope that's all me. I don't see what's so crazy about the post. People have said in lieu of Conteras' possible health issues, a RH reliever might be a need. The Phils are reported to be linked to Kerry Wood. With only 1 LH in the 'pen another one might be necessary. But when I chime in I get killed. Gload cannot run. Every time he's used, someone has to run for him if he gets on.

There was nothing in that post that was not accurate. Why do you think I put "needs" in quotes? I DO NOT have to defend what I say here to ANY one of you. The BS I take here, is unbelievable.

Last week I said I wouldn't be surprised if they got awept in Seattle. Well guess what, it almost happened. Maybe I might just know a little more about things than what any of you care to admit. I done here.

"Last week I said I wouldn't be surprised if they got awept in Seattle. Well guess what, it almost happened."

small sample size, and not even right.

"I done here."

no need to take pot shots at asian posters on your way out. classless.

Sorry DPat it's just that you sounded like a kid on Santa's lap is all. No kidding the Phillies have needs. Fortunately those needs are not as glaring as most other teams in baseball. It silly to think every hole will be filled with someone we'll all aprove of. Or filled at all for that matter. I don't think we have that sense of entitlement yet.

That was a nice rant, dpat!

Losing 2 out of 3, when the one win was the middle game and a very solid win at that, is not a sweep that "almost happened".

CJ: McCann is probably the best catcher in baseball, period (as long as Mauer has injury issues).

@conshy: "i think he's going to throw the whole offense back and start anew, kinda like you can do in scrabble."

Actually, I think it's more like 5 Card Draw, where you can toss in 4 cards if you have an Ace. Since we actually have multiple Aces, we'll hang on to those and scrap the rest.

The John Lackey implosion currently in progress is threatening to rival that of the Cards' pen last night. 3 straight runs scoring on a BB, a HBP, and a wild pitch before a single scored another one.

I gotta say, I thought DPat's initial post, stating that the Phils may or may not do something was "post of the day" worthy. Then, he went ahead and obliterated that with his follow-up, explaining the first post.

I'm on the edge of my seat waiting for the follow-up to his "I done here" post.

Hey, leave my friend Mr. Patrone alone.

How would you like it if you came on here and people treated you like that.

If you want to behave like a bunch of d8ckless douchebags, go over to that 'other' site where when someone disagrees with their collective "wisdom" they set upon people like flies on sh8t. Watching it is like being an observer to a shout down at a National Socialist Party Conference in Nuremburg in the 1930's. (And they're always right, you know...at least according to them.)

Someone's a little touchy today...

DPat: The reason people joked about your post is that you pointed out the obvious needs... and then declared the GM may do something or may do nothing.

Not a whole lot to a post like that...

Come Back DPat. I apologize if I was harsh. I was just messing with you. CJ very adeptly covered the reasons why. Just being a wise ass.

"He may do something or he may do nothing."

Gee you think?

Hilarious post there by DPat. Followed lovingly by his "I done here" post.

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