The combination of a smoke-and-mirrors minors, a dominant starting staff, their flirtation with the luxury tax and a lack of a difference-making available bat could keep the Phillies from pulling the trigger before the July 31 non-waiver deadline.
Beerleaguer: Additions like Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, Ryan Spilborghs and Jeff Francouer are fun to debate, but would likely turn an average offense into an average offense at the expense of a top prospect. If you believe Raul Ibanez can pull closer to the numbers on the back of his baseball card, Ryan Howard, too, than the best is yet to come for the offense, which had shown signs of improvement only a week ago. Nevertheless, the “golden age” is over. Jayson Werth’s five-hole vacancy has been felt more than any recent departure. Make no mistake: The Phils are swinging below-average sticks because .296/.388/.532, 27 homers and 46 doubles have gone missing. Indeed, the Phillies miss Werth as much as the bean counters knew they would.
Meanwhile, the obscene gobs of pitching hype have come to fruition. Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee: All-Stars all. Kyle Kendrick, once again, can’t possibly be for real because he doesn’t get strikeouts and his FIP says he’s lucky. Yet in five seasons, opponents have yet to break him. He’s 4-4 with a 3.23 ERA as his rubber arm floats between the bullpen and rotation, pitching to contact more than ever. There’s a much smaller book on Vance Worley, who isn’t dissimilar in that he needs to hit his spots. But he’s got a little bulldog in him and isn’t afraid to dare hitters with strikes, which has been Kendrick’s problem in the past.
The bullpen is leaking oil, and if there’s an area to upgrade, this is it. Getting Antonio Bastardo and Mike Stutes into this many pressure situations is a huge win for an aging club ready to get younger any way they can. Still, a rental could go a long way. Cracks are starting to show everywhere and they’re a couple men short with Jose Contreras out, J.C. Romero going bust and Kendrick lost to the rotation.
Stretch-run returns by Joe Blanton, Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge and Contreras also loom.
Thank you, oh Weitzel in the Cybersky, for this new thread.
The last one was excruciating.
Posted by: awh | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:14 AM
"Additions like Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, Ryan Spilborghs and Jeff Francouer are fun to debate, but would likely turn an average offense into an average offense at the expense of a top prospect."
True, dat.
Posted by: awh | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:16 AM
". Kyle Kendrick, once again, can’t possibly be for real because he doesn’t get strikeouts and his FIP says he’s lucky. Yet in five seasons, opponents have yet to break him. He’s 4-4 with a 3.23 ERA as his rubber arm floats between the bullpen and rotation, pitching to contact more than ever."
JW, nice. Someone had to provoke Jack today!
Posted by: awh | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:18 AM
Jayson Werth's 2011 so far:
.224/.329/.391 (.720), 100 OPS+, 10 HR, 27 RBI
I don't think his bat, as it's performing right now, would do much for this lineup. He'd basically be the Ludwick, Willingham upgrade that you just trashed.
His bast in 09-10, sure that would help. This year, we haven't lost too much with him yet. Maybe he turns it around and we miss him later, but right now. He's just another medicore hitter.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:19 AM
Francouer is not fun to debate.
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:19 AM
Speaking of the team's hitting 'woes', the team BAbip currently sits at a modest .277.
Can that be expected to improve? If so, what would be the result in RPG?
Posted by: awh | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:21 AM
Fat - You missed my point, as usual.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:22 AM
I said a few weeks ago I would rather see a RHP reliever acquired because I wasn't crazy about counting on Stutes in a high-pressure situation later this season/in-playoffs. That was before Contreras went back on the shelf.
Given that they are unlikely to get something meaningful from Lidge season and Contreras' elbow is a real question mark, they need help here.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:27 AM
J. Weitzel, I think I've responded to your points maybe twice in my entire life, so I'm not sure where the "as usual" is coming from.
It's good to see the snark isn't reserved for just the commenters, but extends to the site admins as well.
Anyways, what point did I miss?
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:27 AM
Fatti, so....you're taking the position that Werth would be hitting to the exact same numbers if he was still hitting 5th for the Phillies lineup.
Hmmm.
Posted by: awh | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:28 AM
awh, not taking that stance at all. Who knows what he would hit if he were in this lineup. The fact is, he's not raking this year, and I doubt that he were still here, the offense would be the juggernaut that it once was.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:30 AM
awh: That BABIP should probably be expected to improve, although note that the league-wide average is trending downward (part of the lower-scoring environment is less hits, overall). We should expect "average" BABIP to be closer to .290 than .300, where it was for much of the high-offense era.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:31 AM
MG: We're in total agreement on Stutes. I want someone better than him handling 8th inning assignments (if Charlie is going to split the 8th inning righty/lefty with someone/Bastardo).
I like the kid, and think he has potential. But if he's our 2nd or 3rd best reliever in the bullpen, then the bullpen is an issue.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:32 AM
Also, do I expect Werth to improve and be significantly better going forward than our RFs?
Absolutely.
But all I can look at is what he's done so far this year, and it has not been that impressive.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:34 AM
The effect of Werth's not being here on the Phils 2011 offense has nothing to do with what Werth is doing for the Nats. What they lose is his production from last year. I believe that is the point.
Posted by: Jonesman | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:41 AM
Jonesman, and my point was that, if Werth were here all year, posting a line similar to what he's posted for the Nats so far in 2011, we'd still be missing Werth's 2010 prodution.
That's all I was saying.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:46 AM
Equally assumptive:
2011 JWerth batting 5th in Phils lineup would have the same slash line as 2011 Nats JWerth.
2011 JWerth batting 5th in Phils lineup would have the same slash line as 2009-10 JWerth.
Posted by: Bonehead | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:46 AM
fatalotti - i normally just call you "fat", but this time you deserve to be pronounced properly. i agree 100% with your Werth comment. i'm not sure why JW chose to beef with your comment, but i for one, think you are a most reasonable poster. just my opinion.
Posted by: conshy matt | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:50 AM
I think werth could expect a little better #'s here then in Wash since he's more or less the hitter other pitchers are focusing the most on when they face the nats. Howard would still be benefiting from werth and vice-versa here
Posted by: mm | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:52 AM
and before anyone jumps down my throat: the caveat to werth's #'s in wash are completley affected by Zimmerman's Injury problems.
Posted by: mm | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:53 AM
Thanks conshy. Good to know that I don't labor in vain.
:)
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:55 AM
Assuming Werth's relatively awful numbers would be the same, he's still about .100 points better in OPS than what the Phils have gotten out of the 7 guys Manuel's plugged in at No. 5 this year. I know hte bullpen is very thin but, finding some stability in that slot would be a priority for me moving into the second half.
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:56 AM
Fatalotti- I think you made a fair point. The one thing that gets mentioned sometimes, but maybe not enough, is that even when the Phillies offense is 'good' for the year, there have traditionally been a lot of concerns about it through May and June. Hopefully they heat up like they normally do this time of year.
Posted by: Jonesman | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:57 AM
mm, good point. The counter to that argument is twofold:
Some studies have shown the "protection" theory to be incorrect, when it comes to baseball lineups.
Secondly, if he is being pitched around, should we expect his OBP to be higher than .329?
All in all, who knows what he'd be doing here in this lineup, this year, but so far, he's not given us much reason to miss him.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:57 AM
This conversation about Werth is idiotic.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:58 AM
Hugh, great point, and again, I'd take Werth in the 5 hole over BenFran, Polly, and whoever else Charlie has put in there.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 11:59 AM
Jack: Except JW brought it up by suggesting(reasonably of course) that the phils offense would look a whole lot better with werth 2010 #'s back in the lineup. For posters to then extend that thought to hypothetical predictions of performance seems fairly natural.
Posted by: mm | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:02 PM
How about trading Dominic Brown for Ryan Ludwick & Heath Bell from San Diego ? I don't see Brown staying the whole year in the Big Leagues this year .
Posted by: Ronald J Gula | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:07 PM
This happens all the time on this site...The thread will be about one thing and then someone brings up another point and thats what everyone will talk about for the rest of the life of the thread.
Posted by: Get Rube A Beer | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:08 PM
Think they will either get the right-handed OF bat or the RHP reliever at the trading deadline and try to acquire the other one via a waiver wire deal if they can.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:11 PM
GRAB, the thread is about 3 things, and so far we've touched upon one of those things.
I'll touch upon another. This team has proven so far to be able to win with an average/mediocre offense, but the bullpen has been in flux all year with injuries coming up unexpectedly. A bullpen piece just might be the most important thing fro a team that is so dependent on strong pitching, since Doc, Lee an Hamels can't go 9 innings every time.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:11 PM
Ronald, if you trade Brown for a rent-a-player or two, who do you plan to start in right and left next year?
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:12 PM
Their bullpen as currently constituted even with Madson as the closer isn't good enough for the playoffs. Need at least 3 good relievers and ideally 4.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:12 PM
GRAB - welcome to the internet.
Posted by: conshy matt | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:14 PM
Madson DL'd.
Posted by: JA Happ | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:15 PM
"Madson DL'd."
SH8T!!!
Posted by: awh | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:20 PM
Fatalotti: I don't care...I expect it to happen. I'm responding to Jack's post. I think Werth would have been more productive here than he is in Washington. He was more comfortable here. He didn't have to be the lone leader. In reality, He was the 5th or 6th leader on the team.
I agree with JW, I don't believe that Willingham, Spilbourghs, Ludwick or Frenchy would be huge upgrades over what we have. I do like the idea of a RHB but I don't think we need to unload a good prospect to make our team slightly above average.
I think time will heal batting performances. This team is no longer the offensive juggernaut it was back in 07' 08'...But it doesn't have to be. Maybe that plays into their psyche. There's less urgency. Is that bad? Probably...But I'm not worried.
Bet they hit during this series...
Posted by: Get Rube A Beer | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:21 PM
Carpenter up?
Paging Brad Lidge.....paging Brad Lidge.....
Posted by: awh | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:21 PM
new thread!
Posted by: awh | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:22 PM
Ouch. So, Baez is the only guy left in the bullpen with significant experience. Herndon and Bastardo are relative veterans. They have rookies/ minor leaguers at the remaining spots (Mathieson, Carpenter, Stutes, Perez). Am I missing something there?
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:22 PM
Closer-Bastardo
Setup-Stutes
LOOGY-Perez
7th inn-Herndon
Against Sox....yikes
Who has been called up?
Posted by: Bonehead | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:24 PM
Worry about next year then , we need a Right handed hitter & a RP badly . Next year they can unload Ibanez & Lidge to make room for a few free agents.
Posted by: Ronald J Gula | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:40 PM
What about Hunter Pence for Brown and another prospect? Is that still an option? Pence would most def fill the major need that we have in the 5 hole and a consistent right handed bat in the OF. And we all know Houston loves ex Phils
Posted by: JRS | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 01:20 PM
You sound like Reuben Amaro hoping the hitters rebound to what they ave done in the past. It has been a year and a half of poor situational hitting. They WILL NOT bounce back. Ibanez is cooked, Howard is not hitting because there is no one backing him up. Francisco is a bench player period,Brown is overmatched. What Amaro told the fan base when he acquired Lee is that it is World Series or bust. If he doesn't make a move to improve the hitting then he mislead the fans and we will be agitated and Amaro would be held accountable.
Posted by: MIke Curran | Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 04:53 PM