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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

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Carpenter is due for his annual three innings of mop up work I suppose. This sucks!

Wow. Retroactive back to June 19th makes him available as early as next Monday, but who knows if he'll be ready to go by then.

Down to Bastardo, Stutes, Baez, Perez, and (insert career minor leaguer here).

Not Schwimer? Yikes.

Can't believe Charlie didn't use him to pinch run at some point this weekend.

I guess Charlie expects KK to get shelled tomorrow night and will need the arms in the 'pen.

If Madson comes off in six days, this really isn't that big of a deal.

Fatti, slight change:

"Down to Bastardo, Stutes, Baez, and (insert career minor leaguer here)."

LOL @donc

Lee and Hamels basically need to throw CGs then,

This makes sense. Kind of surprised they didn't do it earlier. Only way you can do that is to let the inflammation completely diminish. Just a time factor. As long as it is just inflammation and not structural, he should be fine in the 2nd half of the season.

Worley (a starter who can get walk happy) starting a game in which our "top 4" bullpen pitchers all post high walk rates (Bastardo, Stutes, Baez, Perez), against a Boston lineup that will take walks like candy.

I better find something better to do with my Wednesday night.

Lee and Hamels need to give us innings in their starts.

I thought Worley was going tomorrow night? Please? Ive got tix.

I'd rather see anyone than KK. We have a bad history together. Not to mention I see him at last half the time.

Need Lights Out Myers back. Pete Orr and Baez for Myers and Pence should be more than enough for EW.

Emmett, many people don't like the stat, but Myers currently has the lowest WAR among all qualified starters in the majors at -0.3.

No thanks.

crap.

Emmett: Wade seems intrigued by the talents of Juan Perez, thinks he can be this generation's Aaron Fultz. What are your thoughts?

If this doesn't call for Scott Eyre to be re-signed, I don't know what does.

I believe I've seen Kendrick pitch more than his father has.

Actually wish the Phils had a Rodrigo Lopez-type journeyman starter in their inventory because I kind of like what KK, and Worley, bring to the bullpen.

JW: What about Tim Redding?

Fats,

Yeah I was being completely serious about Boston Brett...anyway if that package landed us Pence I'd give Myers the keys to the castle to do as he pleases.

I believe I've seen Kendrick pitch more than his father has.

Excellent line, donc. I may have to use that one. But I will give you credit, of course.

Jack - not a bad idea, but I think he needs more time to prove himself to the Phils.

JW: I suppose, but isn't the point of signing a vet like that that when the sh't hits the fan (Oswalt and Blanton out, top relievers hurt), you can plug them in there?

If Redding was a rookie, sure, he'd have more to prove. But I thought the whole idea of signing a mediocre vet was that he might be mediocre, but at least you know what you've got.

I've been uncustomarily lucky this year. Attended 5 games; 3 Clifton, 2 Cole.

It's a little known fact that Kendrick actually starts every other game. At least that what I gather from everyone (myself included) who goes to games semi-regularly.

I think Redding signing was AAA roster filler. I'm no big fan of Carpenter, but I bet he's got as much to offer as Redding does.

Sorry Emmett, should have caught that sarcasm.

Next time, next time...

JW, I get the vibe that originally Contreras may have been considered for that type of a role, but they found that a bullpen only approach probably suited him best.

Perez reminds me of a more distinguished and consistent Joe Roa.

This Madson void is looking more and more like a means to relieve the crouching tiger, Eude Brito, from his dishtending duties at Smith & Wollensky.

If only Ugi Urbina was available....

El Pulpo?

The Giants have scored 265 runs this year and given up 269.

How are they in first place? I was told run differential was completely infallible

TTI: You're being obtuse. Run differential is a predictor of future success. The Giants current record indicates they'll win 91 games. The run differential suggests they won't.

You wanna bet the over on 91 and I'll take the under?

The only pitcher I've seen more than Kendrick was Adam Eaton.

We're certainly going to learn what Stutes and Bastardo are made of. Maybe somehow the bats will come alive.

The Giants offense is arguably the worst in the majors, markedly down from last year, though last year they brought themselves up with their mid-season acquisitions.

TTI: And the answer is that they're in first place because they're lucky and that division stinks.

I am 5-1 so far this year. The only loss was the Cubs game with the hurricane in the middle, started by you guessed it....KK. To be fair he was pitching well before the monsoon hit.

Whats Podsednik doing?

Emmett: Is that where Eude ended up? Thought he was at bar-backing at Drinkers.

Robinson Tejeda was designated for assignment by the Royals a few weeks ago but no one picked him up. He actually turned out to be a decent pitcher at one point. He could have been useful here now. Better than the little general, Fabio Castro.

Wow, Aaron Rowand still on the Giants payroll at $13.6 million. Another guy who was washed up after he came into his 30s.

It's time to show the Boss wearing the Baez shirt.

No wonder Savery is pitching again.

I knew I could cast my line with that bait and catch the suckerfish I wanted.

Honestly, I don't care enough about the Giants to make any kind of bet on them. But I was just mentioning what I did because I know it's a predictive stat but you don't always seem to grasp that Jack. Perhaps worry about your own obtuseness Jack instead of trying to fit the statistic to how it can further whatever dumb argument you are trying to make that day.

Scotty Pods is on the DL, I think. Was playing poorly when he was "active".

Whats Podsednik doing?


.255/.286/.486 at LV

I think my favorite post a thread ago was JW telling Fata off in a back-handed way. It was funny since it was so out of character.

Any reason for the Toronto series being all day games? even the Friday game it says is a 1:00 start. I don't think I have ever seen a Friday day game

Baez is the sole vet in the pen. 'nuff said.

Yeah Brito doing his thing with the brillo at Smith. Works fast, doesn't get to in over his head and has a nice staff drink waiting for him at 3am in the form of Joaquin's and pineapple. La vida loca.

I miss the dark ages at times where our 'pen was just a pile of living, breathing play-it-again sports athletes. So much broken and repaired, used and resold parts that really just enabled a solid 3 hours of drinking anywhere during the 2005 season.

Antonio Bastardo will be called on to close in Madson's absence. Michael Stutes could be used too, but Charlie said "most likely Bastardo" - Leslie Gudel

Yes, Jason, a "guy can wish" but let's not become delusional!

Eude Brito? There's a name I never wanted to see anywhere near the Phillies organization ever again.

Come to think of it JW's pimp slapping of Fats sounded a heck of a lot like the Cloutmeister. Hmmm? Sounds like it has the makings of an Oliver Stone movie.

Our bullpen is suddenly really sketchy...especially going into the BoSox series.

Ugh.

Emmett: Yeah, when you saw Ugie Urbina running in to replace Rheal Cormier and prtoect an 8-6 lead in the 7th on the 6th day of a two week-long west coast swing, you knew it was time to order another round of shots from the lazy bartender at the Black Sheep, and maybe make that trip back across the Square towards 20th Street.

Sam, July 1st is Canada Day. Big doings in Toronto on Friday night.

I see I see, thanks Meyer

Worley's 2011 BB/9: 4.11
Bastardo: 4.18
Stutes: 5.47
Herndon: 3.2
Baez: 3.3
Perez: 13.5 (SSS, but he's never been a control guy)

Walk % for regulars in Boston's lineup:
Ellsbury: 7.5%
Pedroia: 15.8%
Youkillis: 14.4%
Ortiz: 11.4$
A-Gon: 8% (13.4% in 2010, 17% in 2009, 11% career)
Saltalamacchia: 7.5%
Drew: 12.2%

Gonna be a LOT of walking gonig on tomorrow night.

"Run differential is a predictor of future success."

Remember when Jack was telling us, when the Braves were 5 games back and ahead of the Phils in run differential, that based on run differential the Braves would close the gap?

Now the Phillies are well-ahead in run differential. And leading the Braves by 5 games.

With Boston's patience at the plate I can't see any CG's or even a 6 inning start out of Worley. Let's hope the pen can hold down the fort.

". The Giants current record indicates they'll win 91 games. The run differential suggests they won't."

Another Jack classic. Their current record indicates that they'll win more games than they lose - that they'll win 91 games. Their current run differential indicates that they'll have a losing record (that they'll finish @4 games under .500).

Jack - how much of your yearly income are you willing to bet that they'll come closer to finishing 4 games below .500 than they'll finish wining 91 games?

I was definitely channeling clout in my response to Fata. And my line about KK. Makes you wonder ...

Still don't understand the vitriol from JW. And the "as usual" part is very perplexing, as he and I have exchanged pleasantries on this site but once in the past, as far as I can remember.

But I enjoy his blog immensely, and I loved the book that he collaborated with Mike McNesby on about the 2008 Phillies, so I'll forgive him.

Phlipper: If their team stayed the same as it is right now, I'd consider that bet.

Right now I think they have the talent of about a .500 team, maybe a couple wins over. But I think they will make a couple moves at the deadline because they have a chance to win, improving the underlying talent of their team. Which would get them closer to 91 wins than to .500.

But I would still take the under right now on 91 wins. Wouldn't you?

Okay, I know you'll all be skeptical, but I met up with a friend of a friend this weekend. He works in th Astros front office. (if you know a few things about me, you can pretty easily figure out who it is...)

We chatted, as we always do, about Ed Wade. Nothing interesting there. He did share the following comments:

The Astros were scouting a first baseman in the Phils org, but they note thy Brett Wallace would be blocking him.

Milt Thompson (I didn't even know he worked for the Astros) says Rollins is a superstar when he plays within his game but once "J Roll" appears there is nothing that can prevent the descent to mediocrity. He won't listen to the hitting coach.

Berkman is an a-hole. He is all an act when the cameras are on. Last guy to take BP, last to show up to the park. The Astros were trying to get him to lose 25 pounds and he didn't cooperate. Now he's lost some weight and all of the sudden his knee is great.

They are measure some internal rotation inside the shoulder of pitchers to predict injuries. He said there's a cutoff where the prob of arm trouble increases cOnsiderably and that with the trainer you can lower the amount of rotation inside the shoulder over time. They can't get guys into the trainer though. The trainer say they won't show up. The front office says that it's your job to drag them in.

Yes. The as usual part was vintage Clout.

"scouting a first baseman in the Phils org"

Who in MLB is NOT scouting Singleton at this point? He's on radar screens.

I'll say this... Johan Santana could never close. Thank goodness we have the next Johan Santana.

Oh yeah, and very strong chance they'll deal pence. There is no reason to pay for him.

Carlos Lee wasaignes by the owner, not the GM. He had a 75m offer on the table and then the owner met him for dinner and suddenly he is a 100m guy. McClane was buddin against himself.

Ed Wade worked for Tal Smith before. That's the connection.

Wade is a really nice guy.

I actually had to go back to the previous thread just to witness Jason channelling clout. It was vintage.

And the point was missed... take away that production from Jayson Werth in the 5-hole and replace it with what we've gotten from the 5-hole and it's a huge reason why this team's run production is down.

Jason was NOT saying that this team would be as productive if we had simply re-signed Jayson Werth.

But I digress...

if I had to guess at Charlie Manuel's ideal preseason bullpen (note: I said Charlie Manuel's, not mine). I'd say it was

Lidge (Closer)
Contreras (Setup)
Madson
Romero (Lefty)
Kendrick (Long Man)
Baez (mop up)
and then Bastardo or Herdon (whoever did better in spring training)

That would mean Manuel is missing his preseason top-5 due to injury, ineffectiveness (JC) or necessity (Kendrick). Also, the last guy to head north is now probably closing...

Nuts.

An open apology to all at Beerleaguer for using “fleeced, Rube, and Halladay” in the same post. My very poorly written post attempted to suggest that it would flat out suck if we traded the wrong corner outfielder to get Doc. Sorry Jimmy, Doc Halladay is now the heart and soul of this ball team. Acquiring Doc was one of the most brilliant acquisitions ever by the Phils (no sarcasm intended!) in my lifetime. Right up there with Carlton for Wise.

Allow me to restate my point. We’re already up to our arses in lousy corner outfielders. What if Dom’s selling insurance in 3 years, and Michael Taylor’s an All Star for Oakland? I get queasy just thinking of it. As Whitey might say “…boy oh boy…” do we need Dom Brown to start raking. Tonight.

Is Fatalotti an anagram for Heather?

Buddy: Your source sounds suspiciously like DPatrone's. You ever notice how you never see Buddy Ryan in 2008 and DPat at the same time? Or JW and Clout. Things just keep getting weirder around here.

Jack - given the bet of whether they'll finish closer to 91 wins or 77 wins, I'd take the former.

Regardless, Jack - rather typically you take a predictive stat and fail to understand its real meaning.

The fact that they are now 6 games over .500 is much more predictive of what kind of record they'll finish with than is the fact that they're run differential is at -9 runs.

And once again, Jack - When you originally started posting about the comparative run differentials of the Braves and Phils - one freakin' 5th of the way into the season -(when one lopsided game can completely reverse run differential by a significant %) - you stated categorically that the fact that the Braves were ahead in run differential was a better predictor of the final games won differntial than the fact that the Phillies were 5 games ahead in the loss column.

As you look back - how would you evaluate your previous argument?

JJG: Now THAT is something Oliver Stone should investigate.

"They note thy Brett Wallace would be blocking him."

Yeah, anytime you can get your hands on a 1B who is on pace to hit 8 HRs in a season, you have to hold onto him and not let go.

Wallace is basically exactly who I thought he would be. A second-division starter who simply doesn't have the power to be an above-average 1B offensively. He will always have a good walk rate, which is valuable, but his .293 AVG is being inflated right now by a .374 BABIP. He's basically Daric Barton without the defense or Lyle Overbay with less power.

Donc:

I hear you, but I'm not DPatrone. I'm an economist living is the southwest. If you know which city you can easily figure out the person I know as a friend of a friend.

"That would mean Manuel is missing his preseason top-5 due to injury, ineffectiveness (JC) or necessity (Kendrick). Also, the last guy to head north is now probably closing.."

Please note that as in past years - despite being criticized constantly for being bad at bullpen management - Charlie has gotten a better result out of his bullpen than anyone would predict based on the quality of his bullpen staff and the amount of injuries they've sustained.

This is why much of this criticism of Charlie amounts to keyboard managers displaying eagle-eyed hindsight.

Phlipper: No, predictive does not mean where they will finish. It means how they'll play from here on out.

And your Braves-Phillies point is spot on. At the time, the Braves were ahead but it was basically even (I think the Braves were at +41 and the Phillies at +37 or something, which is a marginal difference, especially since Utley hadn't come back). Since then, the teams have played exactly even, right? If the Phils were 5 games ahead and now are still 5 games ahead, it means the teams have played evenly since then. That's what you would have expected to see.

Just messin with you Buddy Ryan. It's always cool to get a little inside dope. Thanks.

Jack: Wallace would have been more valuable if he could have fieled 3rd. At first... without some more power... he's just not going to be very impressive.

Buddy Ryan, why the need to be so cryptic? Last year you furnished us (via an entertaining stats "tutorial"/smackdown) your alma mater as well. I feel like we know so much about you already.

I think this series will determine where RAJ goes to help the Phils. If they can score some runs against the Sox, I think Ruben goes after bullpen help (hello Heath!). If not, I think he HAS to address offense.

http://jstolnis.wordpress.com/2011/06/28/red-sox-phillies-will-answer-big-questions/

CJ: Yeah, that's definitely right. Had I thought Wallace could stay at 3rd, I would've considered him a much higher prospect. But scouting reports early on stated that he simply couldn't field the position.

If the Astros are looking to trade Pence, it would make some sense they'd do some scouting of Singleton. However, could they be taking a look at Rizzotti, in return for a 2nd tier reliever to bridge the gap to a Lidge/Contreras(nor Madson) return?

Too much shouldn't be made of this Boston series. The more important series on the immediate horizon is the Atlanta series heading into the All Star break. A series sweep, and Braves could really close the gap.

Concerning Werth's 5-hole, how many holes in the lineup are worse than last year?

When bullpen pitches well it is because the players are good. When bullpen blows up it is because of poor coaching. Anybody knows that.

Add the no-name bullpen to the worthless bench and you have the best team in baseball.

I wanted the Phillies to give the young guys a chance this year (which is why I did not want Durbin back even for free). But this situation is a bit overboard. Bastardo or Herndon to close. Stutes at setup guy. Perez for lefties or blowouts. Mathieson 7th inning. Carpenter for multiple innings. Baez is the cheerleader.

I would have to agree, Wallace aint blocking anybody.

unreal. They lose their closer, yet instead of bringng someone up who has closing experience and has done well, Schwim, they bring up a middle reliever. YOU CANNOT COUNT ON baez or Herndon to pitch in the 7th inning of close games.

You have to luv yet another example of Phils lying to the public. " Madson should be back in 3 - 4 days. They are actually worse than the Eagles !!!!!!

...almost as if JW forgot to change his handle...

Jack writing a post about Brett Wallace is a sure-fire way to trigger clout's Google alert.

Other topics/statements which trigger it:

--Kyle Kendrick sucks;
--Vicente Padilla sucks;
--Pitcher X's velocity is down;
--Pitcher X's low strikeout rate is concerning;
--Looking back, I'm sure glad we made the Abreu trade;
--Ed Wade is a moron;
--Pedro Feliz made some positive contributions to the Phillies;
--[Insert Phillies' minor league player of your choice] would help the Phillies' bench;
--The Brad Lidge trade was a good move for the Phillies;
--That pitcher with the 8.64 ERA, who just shut out the Phillies on 2 hits, really sucks.

Couple of thoughts:

- Baez and 'Bizarro Herndon' get thrust into the limelight/high leverage spots in the 7th & 8th. Actually have some misplaced? confidence that Herndon generally will get the job done through the ASB. Baez will just inspire more teeth-gnashing, calls to 610, and site visits to Beerleaguer.

- Mathieson will continue to collect cobwebs unless KK/Worley get knocked out early. I have a feeling that Mathieson makes his first appearance since being recalled on 6/24 tomorrow night.

- Will Amaro make the classic 'overpay for a middle reliever' that Ed Wade used to? It wouldn't fit his general 'go big, go home' tactical strategy he has used to date.

- Carpenter really did pitch 'lights out' at Lehigh. I am curious to see if he can displace the likes of Baez as a guy that Cholly begins to develop a bit of trust in higher leverage spots.

Jack - at the time you were arguing that run differential would indicate that the Braves being (I believe 8 runs) back was a better indicator the relative quality of the teams than the fact that the Phillies were 5 games ahead in the loss column.

Well - now the Braves are 31 runs back in run differential and they are 5 games back in the loss column.

Using run differential at this point indicates that the Braves will wind up significantly further behind the Phillies than they are now.

Using run differential as you laughably did 1/5th of the way into the season indicated that the Braves would finish ahead of the Phillies.

So - using run differential gave you completely opposite indications about how the teams would finish whereas using their comparative won/loss numbers returns the same prediction at both points - that the Phillies will finish somewhat ahead of the Braves.

Let the over-hyping of Red Sox-Phils begin! Don't understand why anything thinks this series matters all the much. Braves-Phils series right before the ASB matters a ton more especially since the Phils only play the Braves only 6x times after the ASB.

dick: Why would closing experience (in the minor leagues, no less) be important? We're not calling the guy up to close.

I have no problem calling up Carpenter. In fact, given how he has pitched this year, I think he's deserving of a shot. If Schwimer were to get a call-up, it should be at the expense of Mathieson, not Carpenter.

Matt H:

Cryptic because it is someone else's job, not mine.

I didnt go to Duke simply because i knew who taught which courses there in the econ dept.

This year's "tutorial" was going to be about sample size but I hadn't gotten around to it.

In short, it's much ado about nothing. The standard deviation of the sample average converges at 1/root(n). That means (a) it initially gets "accurate" very quickly with modest improvements from more data.

For example, consider a guy hitting .300 after 100 ABs. The 95% confidence interval based on this sample is about .296 to .304. After 400 ABs the interval is .298 to .302. Now clearly there's more variation than these intervals suggest, but that's not because the samples are small.

I wouldn't give up Singleton for Pence...but then I like elite bats in my minor league system.

Singleton is going to be special...it'd be really stupid to trade him for a short-term fix.

"Concerning Werth's 5-hole,"

Hey, easy now. Family blog here.

Carpenter definitely deserved to be called up over Schwimer. Kind of a no-brainer by Rube.

Thought that Amaro did a nice job of stocking up on some journeyman to give the Phils a bit more depth at Lehigh. Surprised though at how some of the Phils' holdovers though have pitched so far this year including Carpenter, Schwimer, and Stutes out of the bullpen.

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