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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

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Scott Kazmir will save the day for the Pigs. Looks like he's about to get released.

On who goes when Worley comes back, I never thought I'd hear myself say this, but I'm sending Romero packing and keeping Herndon.

So, Gordon is good enough to start for the Yankees, but not even good enough to displace JC Romero or Danys Baez on our bullpen roster?

I'm calling BS on that one.

Yankees are in a total bind right now with their pitching.

I'd tend to agree with you Scotch but, (I can't believe I'm saying this) I'm a little leery of letting Romero go with Boston looming on the schedule. Not sure what their splits look like but, they have a lot of lefties in that lineup most nights, no?

Baez and Romeo have no niche.

Both are just taking up spots on the roster. Both should be gone and Worley and Schwimer should have their spots.

This team's pitching is good enough, that they don't need a 2nd lefty in the pen. With Romero, they basically don't have one now anyway.

And if Contreras needs a few more weeks to get right, DL him now. Save him for August and September when it matters the most.

The bench is still a joke, with 3 guys who either aren't good enough to be here or aren't healthy enough to be in uniform. Hopefully that doesn't start to catch up with them in July and August.

Just shows you how good this team is though. They can basically be playing with a 20 man roster most nights and still playing .600 ball.

As for the Hamels 'controversy' Charlie said in his postgame that he heard Hamels say something that he thought was "I feel sick" and not "stiff", and since Hamels didn't talk to Charlie or Dubee he assumed all was OK.

Even the best starting 3 in the history of baseball, do you mean?

What's the big urgency to get Schwimer to Philadelphia? Does anyone honestly think he's better equipped than Baez?

KK for Curtis Granderson. Make it happen Rube!

"As for the Hamels 'controversy' Charlie said in his postgame that he heard Hamels say something that he thought was "I feel sick" and not "stiff", and since Hamels didn't talk to Charlie or Dubee he assumed all was OK. "

I don't understand this either. You believe you hear one of your star pitchers say "I feel sick" going into the 8th inning of a game you're leading by 7 and you're like, "Oh, ok, run him out there!"

Schwimer's tweets are better than Baez's.

I don't see any posts on "Baezlocity" anywhere...

To comment on something from last thread that should probably just be left there, if Joey Bats' 1.5 year power surge was the result of steroids, everyone would be on the stuff right now. I'm not a ped denier like some who trot out the tired and intentionally obtuse mantra, "steroids can't help you hit a curveball", but I really doubt steroids would be able to have the giant effect they have had on Jose Bautista. Now the question of installed cyborg technology. . . that one's open to debate.

Who will be the DH for the Seattle games? Any guesses?

"Who will be the DH for the Seattle games? Any guesses?"

$50 says Ibanez with Francisco playing the field.

Can we not talk about Jose Bautista right now? I'm sick of having a conversation every week in which all sides retrench their position and call the other side morons.

All I know is Jose Bautista went, power-wise, from Shane Victorino two years ago to Sammy Sosa in his peak. Makes one skeptical, that's all.

"I don't understand this either. You believe you hear one of your star pitchers say "I feel sick" going into the 8th inning of a game you're leading by 7 and you're like, "Oh, ok, run him out there!""

People perform sick all the time. It isn't something to alter a gameplan over unless it is really extreme.

"What's the big urgency to get Schwimer to Philadelphia? Does anyone honestly think he's better equipped than Baez?"

Uh...yes? We're not talking about replacing Madson with Schwimmer here.

"All I know is Jose Bautista went, power-wise, from Shane Victorino two years ago to Sammy Sosa in his peak. Makes one skeptical, that's all."

But PEDs don't effect that kind of change. PEDs can only work with what's there.

"$50 says Ibanez with Francisco playing the field."

Bad bet. Last year Cholly DHed BenFran in this situation with Raul in the field. Cholly hates BenFran's defense, which is why he's never a defensive substitute.

"People perform sick all the time. It isn't something to alter a gameplan over unless it is really extreme"

You can feel sick during athletic events due to a combination of over-exertion and dehydration. Guess what becomes more prevalent when you're dehydrated and still exerting yourself? Pulled/strained muscles.

Bottom line, in a game where Cole has already thrown 99 pitches and you're leading by 7, there's no reason to leave him in even if it was just garden variety flu.

We need Ben Fran's solid .220 average in the lineup as the "DH".

Maybe we can use Gload as the "DH" and then if he gets on base, we can use Mini Mart as the "DR" (designated runner).

This would be a good opportunity to sit Howard or Utley for a game or two and use them as the DH.

mini-Mart further evidences his versatility by DHing, a position he hasn't played yet this year proving once again that Rube is the smartest guy in the room.

"Bad bet. Last year Cholly DHed BenFran in this situation with Raul in the field. Cholly hates BenFran's defense, which is why he's never a defensive substitute."

I am giving UC the benefit of the doubt here. Petco's outfield is rather large, and Ibanez played hideous defense there 3 years ago. Even UC has to recognize it would be cruel and unusual punishment for his pitchers to put Ibanez out there.

Right? Right?

Bueller?

Excuse me, when I said Petco in my previous post I obviously meant Safeco.

"Can we not talk about Jose Bautista right now? I'm sick of having a conversation every week in which all sides retrench their position and call the other side morons."

Only if you can avoid starting another useless argument blaming Cholly for something that isn't his fault. Looks like you'll have to wait til the next thread, though.

I think some are blowing the "I'm sick" or "I'm stiff" out of proportion. Manuel's not even thinking about whether Hamels is going back in, there. He's at 93 pitches. He's cruising. He's got a double header tomorrow with a guy starting in teh first game who's 1) likely on a limited pitch count; 2) prone to hit that pitch count and/or a wall of bats in the 4th inning.

Hearing a guy tell a teammate "I feel sick" isn't going to get most managers antennae up. He's going to send him out and let the other team's bats tell him whether he needs someone else.

Ibanez is brutal in the OF.

But Francisco is worse.

I'd keep Ibanez in LF over Francisco.

Naw, Cholly doesn't trust Ben Fran period, and he'll like the fact that Raul's already familiar with Safeco.

Let's stop for a moment and start the argument that this is the best starting 3 teammates in the history of all of baseball. I seriously am not sure why this isn't getting more attention. When you consider Lee's bad luck with BABIP, and how awesome he's been in terms of K/BB, and Halladay being Halladay having one of the best seasons of his career, and Hamels being the best pitcher in baseball since May 1, it takes my breath away.

Remember when Smoltz said no pitcher would ever come and pitch in a bandbox like CBP? Is anyone else constantly amazed by what we have? I have seen 1/3 of the season and I still can't get over it. I grew up watching a lot of Braves games, and these 3 are better by far than those 3, if you ask me.

If only we still had Brian Gordon. I bet he could play left.

I'll predict the Game 2 lineup:

Victorino, CF
Ibanez, LF
Utley, 2B
Howard, 1B
Polanco, 3B
Brown, RF
Ruiz, C
Martinez, 2B
Halladay, P

Dan: maybe we should let them play a few more seasons before declaring Halladay-Hamels-Lee to be better than a triumvirate of HOFers.

Hamels: "Come on guys, it hasn't even been 12 hours. It's not like I'm injured. I'll talk to you in five days.

Dan, if you think it's awesome now, wait until September, when we're comparing the CY credentials of Doc, Cole and Lee, and genuinely wondering who is most deserving.

Scratch what I just typed...

Lets try that again..

Game 2:

Rollins, SS
Vic, CF
Polly, 3B
Howard, 1B
Ibanez, LF
Ruiz, C
Brown, RF
Martinez, 2B
Halladay, P

"Ibanez is brutal in the OF.

But Francisco is worse."

I do not understand this sentiment. Francisco is not particularly good, and he's made some bonehead plays in the past. But I cannot imagine really thinking that Francisco is worse out there than Ibanez. Raul has no range, and no arm. There's really not much he can do out there except catch balls hit directly at him.

The real answer is Mayberry in LF and Ibanez DH'ing. Oh wait, we sent down Mayberry so we could keep Michael Martinez? That really happened? Nevermind.

I'm sorry, Jbird, but think this through. You said "if Joey Bats' 1.5 year power surge was the result of steroids, everyone would be on the stuff right now."

But we've already seen guys like Bonds go from hitting 30 hrs a year to 70 a year on the juice. We already know it works, as do all MLB players. If guys are clean, its not because they doubt the effectiveness of steroids.

Roy Halladay went from Adam Eaton in 2000 to Roy Halladay in 2001. Must of been PEDs. Sometimes people just figure things out.

"But we've already seen guys like Bonds go from hitting 30 hrs a year to 70 a year on the juice."

Take a look at the guys who have been caught using PEDs since testing was implemented, and tell me if you're impressed by their performance. Then get back to me on this topic.

jbird, if these 3 end the year 1 2 3 in xfip, then even if they all crap out for the rest of their careers, it will be unprecidented, and worthy of conversation 50 years from now.

"I do not understand this sentiment. Francisco is not particularly good, and he's made some bonehead plays in the past. But I cannot imagine really thinking that Francisco is worse out there than Ibanez. Raul has no range, and no arm. There's really not much he can do out there except catch balls hit directly at him."

I agree. Francisco runs bad routes and has a middling arm, but he does have reasonable speed. Ibanez runs bad routes, has a terrible arm, and moves like his feet are in cement blocks.

I wouldn't want either of them in my outfield, but if I had to pick one, it would be Francisco.

FWIW, Ibanez's defense was so hilariously bad the last time he was in Safeco that one of the Mariners blogs still keeps a bunch of his terrible plays as gif files that mock his defensive misadventures. THAT is the guy we want in LF in one of the most cavernous outfields in the majors? No way. No freaking way. I don't like UC I think he's a chowderhead, but not even UC would do that. If it's not Francisco, it's (barf) Martinez, but even UC won't run Ibanez out there to play the field in Safeco.

Dan, don't forget, they're all well on pace ofr well over 200 strikeouts this year. Not even Atlanta's big 3 did that. In fact, hasn't been done since the 60s.

And the K/BB ratios are historic. It really is an historically dominant troika of pitchers.

Gordon is a bit wasted in the AL. Just as Rizzotti needs to be in a league where hitters don't necessarily visit the field, Gordon, for full value, needs to be in a league where pitchers visit the plate. Only marginally sorry to see him go. Despite his good peripherals, one wonders whether at age 32 he'll repeat what he's done at AAA up one level.

In re: Iron Pigs roster
Movement at the top level allows for movement from below. It might encourage greater signing of all these position player draftees the Phils took in the draft and the upward mobility of folks from Reading, Clearwater and Lakeview.

And while it's nice to have a AAA with a winning record, it's a lower priority than the development of the actual prospects.

C'mon Jack, I am not saying, and I doubt anyone anywhere has ever said, that PEDs always necessarily turn everyone who uses them into incredible athletes. Of course lots of not-so-good players who have used steroids have failed to achieve Bonds-level results. But you can have fun arguing with that straw man.

Lineup for Game 1 (according to Yahoo)
Rollins SS
Victorino CF
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Brown RF
Francisco LF
Valdez 3B
Sardinha C
Kendrick P

In re: Kendrick for Granderson

If I'm making that trade, knowing I'll never get Granderson, I looking at someone like that Mexican tank they have at AAA who catches and can fill in at 1B and 3B. Then we can send Sardinha down to "help" LV.

This guy:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vazque002jor

Or Jesus Montero, since Vazquez is actually more of a corner IF than a C.

I like Mayberry in left with Raul as DH. But since Mayberry is at LV, guess that ain't happening.

Who said Chase as DH to rest his knees? Might not be a bad idea, but that means the mighty Valdez bat will be DH.

Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels should just bat for themselves in the games they pitch. They have nearly as much chance to be productive as anyone else on our bench.

Or they should DH in the games they don't pitch.

I don't know anything about the Marlins' AAA pitching options, but Elih Villanueva seems like a strange choice. He has a 5.23 ERA and 1.645 WHIP at AAA this year. He was considerably better at AA last year, when he went 14-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. But that was AA and that was last year.

From his overall strikeout/walk numbers, I gather that Villanueva is the dreaded finesse pitcher -- although he hasn't had a whole lot of finesse this year, with 3.5 walks per 9 innings.

The Phillies ought to absolutely pound this guy, which would put them in good shape for a double-header sweep, with Halladay pitching Game 2. O course, now that I've said that, they'll probably get shut out on 3 hits in Game 1, then drop the nightcap.

Ibanez stinks defensively. He look like 'Wily E Coyote' where he is running in place and building up speed before he finally gets going.

b_a_p: Hutton was talking about the choice of Villanueva last night, even before the move was announced. He basically said that there was only one choice; he didn't need them to announce it to know what they'd do. Evidently, all their 40 man, more likely options (Villanueva's being put on the 40 man for this start) would have to work on short rest to make this start. Villanueva happens to be the best guy in their system who could go on normal rest and sure enough, they held him out of his start last night to make sure.

Andy: I liked Brandon Laird as a mid-grade CI prospect who'd be more useful to the Phils than the Yanks, but he's scuffling this year for whatever reason.

Oh, and did anyone else know the answer to the Marlins' trivia question last night?

Who was the last Phillie to have consecutive 200+ hit seasons?

There is no reason they can't call Mayberry up for AL park interleague games and do just what you suggest Kutz, don't know that they will but I think it's the way to go.

Send down JC or Martinez, if you loose them to waivers or Rule 5, so be it.

Would be nice to see a little patience out of the boys in the first few innings today. Let's see how this guys nerves are. In light of that Jimmy should probably be moved down to the 8 hole....at least. Bet Jimmy swings at the first pitch.

One of the Richie A's. Asburn or maybe Allen?

Hugh: Well, if the Fish have better options in their system, it was an organizational failure to not have one of those guys adequately rested for today's double-header. It's not like this scheduling arrangement snuck up by surprise.

If I were a Marlins' fan, I'd be pretty p*ssed. You've got a 4-game series against the division leader, and you're facing 3 of the best pitchers in baseball plus Kyle Kendrick. If you're the Marlins, I'd say it's pretty important to win the Kendrick game.

Dan:

Great to see someone that realizes how special this team is. Remember Robert Person as our ace? Remember the years and years without a 15 game winner? We could have 3 this year. All you hear is how the best team in baseball doesnt score enough

Agreed, b_a_p, you could see this game coming for a long time.

donc - try again.

I meant Valdez's bat will be in the line up with Chase as DH. Not sure if that's the best thing to do.

Hugh- Was it Pete Rose?

It was not Pete Rose. That was Hutton's third guess last night.

200 hits 2 yrs in a row?

Pete Rose?

Looking at the Marlins' AAA pitching options, though, it's pretty ugly.

They've got Adalberto Mendez, who started against us twice last September, but has a 2011 ERA over 8. Another starter has an ERA over 7, and 2 more (including Villanueva) are over 5. But they do have Chris Sampson, who has pitched 174 major league games, including 33 starts, and has a 2011 ERA of 3.30. He seems like a better candidate than Villanueva. Maybe they're concerned that they could lose him to waivers when they try to send him back to AAA. Then again, the whole reason you have a guy like this is for emergency starts. If you get 1 or 2 starts out of him, then lose him to waivers, he has served his purpose.

Nap Lajoie?

Huge - It wasn't anybody recently then. If wasn't Ashburn, it must be someone even older. Chuck Klein?

It was Dave Cash, 1974-75, which Hutton eventually guessed. Should have known since he played on those teams.

I only knew because in 1976-77ish, I had ever number memorized on the back of the Phillies baseball cards. Those 200 hit seasons stood out.

Hugh: Dave Cash?

Ricky Otero?

Chuck Klein in '32 & '33?

Oh . . . my guess doesn't look so good when it comes a minute after you posted the answer. But, really, I didn't see the answer until afterwards.

Should have remembered that. And I think Otero only got to 198 in that second year.

Does anybody else think the Fish are done in the East if the Phils sweep them here and put them 11.5 GB? Without Johnson for possibly the rest of the year, I think it is a strong possibility.

Bautista went from Ben Francisco to what he is now. Check their size/stats, they are the same guy.

...I thought the answer was going to be Kevin Stocker.

**sigh

"Of course lots of not-so-good players who have used steroids have failed to achieve Bonds-level results."

Change "lots" to "vast majority" and I think we see why PEDs as an explanation for Bautista's successes isn't particularly compelling. Supposing Bautista is on PEDs: in the history of PED usage his subsequent success ranks puts him in the 99th percentile -- alongside figures (Bonds) who uncontroversially are regarded as Hall of Fame caliber talents PED usage or no. Bautista is simply an outlier. Clean, he's an outlier; PEDing, he's an outlier. To my mind, there's plainly something *unique* to Bautista -- something scarcely replicable (judging from history) -- that enables him to have the success that he does. I don't see why we wouldn't simply call that thing "ability". If it is indeed PED assisted, the PEDs are nevertheless just a facet -- and PED totalists are still obligated to grapple with the question of what else it is that makes Bautista so remarkable.

while trying to figure out the trivia question I looked at Baseball reference and saw that in 1995 the Phillies best player is listed as Rickey Bottalico with a 2.7 WAR. . . It's amazing the Phillies weren't contracted.

A couple posters in the last thread described the throw from Stanton on Polanco's Sac Fly as a good throw.

Stanton has a good arm, but he was throwing from fairly shallow RF and the ball bounced once and was about to bounce a second time when Buck fielded it, too late to get Vic.

It was not a good throw.

I'd rather see Baez or Romero go before Herndon.

donc: I think you might be confusing Otero with Doug Glanville (or maybe some other outfielder). Rickey "The Flea" Ortero never came remotely close to 200 hits & was a starter for only one season.

Glanville had 189 hits in 1998 and 204 in 1990.

b_a_p wins the trivia contest.

clout - it could have been a better throw - he hopped it - but it was accurate and got there pretty quickly. It was not a bad throw. If he makes the throw in the air, he might have gotten him. He also might have thrown too high.

The platoon should be Brown/Ibanez/Mayberry. Let's ease the future outfield into position this season. It makes no sense to keep rolling with Francisco. He's not the future, Mayberry is.

BAP: Time for you to get your sarcasm meter checked. Otero is the guy that I think of when I think of that terribly futile era of Phillies baseball. He was down right Mini-Martish.

Mayberry isn't the future either.

Speaking of the OF, I posted Brown's OPS+ this year at 108 in the last thread. It's actually 118.

Sorry for the mistake.

Anyone that says Mayberry isn't the future hasn't been watching him or is too consumed with box scores to see how he's watching the ball, swinging the bat, running the bases and doing all the intangibles to contribute to wins.

Heather's dislike of Charlie Manuel overcame the good vibes.

Hugh: Given where he threw it from - shallow RF - the bounce made the difference between out or safe. He has the ability to throw it on a line directly to the catcher, but in this case he didn't execute.

BAP: Otero 157 hits in his career. God we fell off a cliff after '93.

don: Ah, ok. I thought perhaps you were confusing Otero with some other singles-hitting outfielder.

clout, I agree - he can and wanted to make that throw on a line. The hop looked like a result of hanging on too long, not wanting to overthrow. I don't know that it makes a difference in the outcome.

I did briefly consider answering with Glanville. I knew he got 200 hits but was sure he only did it once. Surprised to see that he came that close to doing it a second time. Pissed that I didn't even think of Cash though. I followed the Phils in those years like a hawk. Not so much on TV, it was a bit before cable but definitely on the radio.

mayberry and mini mart = the future!

(i weep for the future)

Brian Gordon is hailed by numerous posters here as having tremendous potential to help the Phillies based on his sparkling stats at LV. The fact the Phils passed on adding him to the roster, allowing him to leave, is predicted to have disastrous consequences.

This is kind of interesting given the pure hatred for command/control pitchers on this blog. Gordon's fastball tops at 87-88. He does throw a nice variety of pitches, including a cutter, slider, splitter and curve and his command is good enough to get minor league hitters out with them.

Would that command be good enough to get MLB hitters out with his junk? Is his .242 BABIP a red flag?

I don't really know. What I do know is that there are dozens and dozens of guys like him, most younger than 32, in the minors.

In a world without RHP, Mayberry is definitely the future.

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