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Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Comments

from the last thread:

" the AL has a significant advantage because they have a big bat in the lineup that regularly DH's when they play each other."

i don't necessarily disagree with this statement, however, AL DH's this year have posted the following numbers:

3922 AB
95 HR

HR/41.28 AB

not exactly Ruthean like numbers.

Went to Reading last night. When Rizzotti hits 'em, he hits 'em!

Jiwan James is, has been, and will be filler. It'll be more fun to watch people like Cody Asche and Harold Martinez (and Larry Greene after they get that deal finalized) hit than watch Jiwan James run out the occasional ball he actually puts in play.

Rizzotti ... Japan?

Scotch - Also happening in Reading is Freddy "Used-to-be-good-field-no-hit" Galvis, who has 7 dingers this year and has this slash line for June:
.300/.321/.438/.759

Rizzotti would be a 40 HR guy in Japan. He might want to consider such a move to be honest. He'd make a lot more than he's making in Reading.

Ok, here's my breakdown on the Phils record vs 'winning' and 'losing' teams.

(Winning defined as being at or over .500 at the start of the game).

36 games against losing teams (counting the first set vs Houston just because they're so bad): 26-10

6 games against teams who at the time were .500 or better but now are not: 4-2

6 games against teams who were losers at the time but are now winners: 3-3

25 games against winners: 12-13

So our record against teams who were .500 + at the time we played them is 16-15.

Freddy Galvis added 15-20 lbs of muscle this off-season as he's finally maturing physically. It really shows in his power numbers. Its important to remember that he's still young for his league so he's a legit prospect at this point.

Also, another upside is the added bulk hasn't hurt his fielding at all from recent scouting reports. He could have a future.

I think one of the keys to AL winning the IL is that the rich teams in the AL are smarter than the rich teams in the NL.

Last word on Freddy - .141 ISO this year. He musta put some shoulders on during the Winter.

In re: Rizzotti
Maybe Oakland would swap us Adrian Cardenas or Michael Taylor for him. He's the kinda guy they like and would move quickly up to MLB level for them.

Andy: Jiwan was a pitcher until 3 years ago. Odds are definitely against him, but you have to factor in his lack of experience. Skill and experience-wise, he's like a 19-year-old.

Obviously, if he doesn't learn to manage the strike zone better he won't make it. But among the dozens of toolsy outfilders the Phillies have drafted in recent years, he's actually shown better improvement than most.

Be curious to hear your thoughts on Beerleaguer Spring Training "can't miss" faves Tyson Gillies and Aaron Altherr. After dozens of posts on them I haven't seen a thing in weeks from their advocates.

EFF, to summarize

In re: GM IQ

NYY >>> NYM
LAA >> LAD
TBR >>> FLA
BOS >>>>> CHC

No team is going to trade specifically for Rizzotti. He cleared waivers last year when he could have been had for nothing. That's a pretty big indictment of his value.

Maybe we could trade him to one of those Japanese teams for their cheerleading squad. That'd be...um, well, not exactly cool...uh, what's the word I'm thinking of???

Agree with Andy - Jiwan's "rocky" season is more like his expected season.

Great seasons for Julio and Pettibone. Both were very popular on-the-rise prospects among a lot of people following the phils' farm system and both have lived up to the praise so far. Apparently Pettibone is sitting 92-93 while touching closer to mid90s out of a 6'5 frame and throws a bunch of strikes(has his walks down to just 18 in 76IP).

Julio Rodriguez was such the routine "sleeper" pick that he really wasn't a sleeper coming into this year. His numbers came back to reality a little bit from his 2010 season, but thats a nice sign that he's coming back to reality and still making minor league all star teams.

Conshy: I can't speak to how DHs are performing as a whole this year. But awh's point (which which I agree) was that, since AL teams plan their roster accordingly, their DH is likely to be a lot better than whichever scrub the NL team throws out there to serve as DH in an interleague game. That's a sizable advantage. On the other hand, when the game is in an NL park, it's not much (if any) of an advantage that both pitchers have to hit, since there aren't too many NL pitchers out there who hit any better than AL pitchers. So the interleague system, and the system used in the World Series, does tend to favor the AL.

***I think one of the keys to AL winning the IL is that the rich teams in the AL are smarter than the rich teams in the NL. ***

Exactly...it doesn't help that 3 of the premier NL teams are basically run by incompetents when you consider the Dodgers, Mets and Cubs. All 3 should be elite but have self imploded due to terrible decisions by their GMs/ownership. All 3 have (or should have) the financial ability to compete with the very best but they've blown their money on huge mistakes.

BAP - i don't disagree, at all. just pointing out an interesting fact.

Clout - i've never heard the name Aaron Altherr on this board. i guess i've missed all of the posters trumpeting this can't miss prospect.

The IronPigs winner pitcher last night was Drew Carpenter. He'll never be great, but he is having one very good season as a reliever.

***Be curious to hear your thoughts on Beerleaguer Spring Training "can't miss" faves Tyson Gillies and Aaron Altherr. After dozens of posts on them I haven't seen a thing in weeks from their advocates.***

Yeah, I was bearish on Altherr from the start and Gillies simply cannot stay healthy. I simply didn't see the Altherr love. Lots of guys do well in Williamsport but completely implode after going to full-season ball.

***Clout - i've never heard the name Aaron Altherr on this board. i guess i've missed all of the posters trumpeting this can't miss prospect.***

The Altherr love was more a PhuturePhillies thing as he was labeled as a potential breakout guy this year based on his solid effort in SS A ball last year. I too dont recall too much Altherr talk around here.

***TBR >>> FLA***

How do you figure? The Fish GM has been hamstrung by a shoestring budget every season they've been in existence basically. They've done pretty well at competing when you think about it.

Also, Valle hitting the crap out the ball lately, up to .354/.368/.497 after a very slow April. If i knew how to do MiLB splits, i'd venture to say Valle's prolly hitting .400 since May.

Still at 20%K rate which is a lil higher than desired, but he's been there for pretty much his whole MiLB career so i dont think its a big deal. Anyone read reports on his defense this year?

Anyone read anything on his defense

clout - I've not been impressed with either Altherr or Gillies. Gillies hasn't done anything for the Phillies at all; though we keep hearing that he just needs a little time to prove himself. I thought the idea of putting Altherr at 3B was an interesting experiment, but it didn't even make it out of ST. Now, he's been sent to repeat Williamsport.

As I indicated, I have more hope for guys that have shown an ability to actually hit the ball - like Asche, H. Martinez and L. Greene. Whether they can do it as pros remains to be seen. The ceiling on an infield with Martinez at 3B, Asche at 2B (where he's started for WPT) and Greene at 1B is pretty high. (The floor, of course, is the basement at this point.)

Altherr has been terrible this year, but he hit .304/.331/.400 last year in his age 19 season. I must have missed the post where someone declared him a "can't-miss," but why wouldn't those kind of numbers at least put him on any fan's radar?

NEPP - I was actually tossing them in because they play in the same state. TBR isd not IIRC a high payroll team, but one which has used its draft wisely and traded (and allowed FAs to leave) to build constantly from below. Nothing has stopped FLA from doing the same except a "lower baseball IQ."

BAP: Are you suggesting that the addition of Francisco to the lineup in the 2008 World Series to compensate for Matsui as Yanks DH was not an even balance?

conshy: Then you missed a few weeks of reading here.

Wasn't Altherr on one of the national writers (Law?) top 10-15 Phils prospect lists at one point?

BedBeard: That's right. He was sort of the flavor of the week for a couple weeks this spring, including on BL.

Valle's defense is a bit raw but solid from all reports. The original reports of him maybe moving to 3B were from back when we had Jaramillo, d'Arnaud, and Marson in our system and it was thought Valle would be blocked. Luckily Rube fixed that problem and there is no one blocking him now. His biggest problem is his non-existent BB rate. That's a real concern and a red flag going forward.

clout: I realize that Francisco is hitting .218 and slugging .362, and that he is 1 for 17 in his post-season career. But, if the Phillies meet the RedSox in the World Series this year, I feel quite confident that Francisco will out-hit David Ortiz for the series.

BL can be a pretty serious place. if anyone wants a good laugh today, check this out:

http://crashburnalley.com/2011/06/21/the-funniest-baseball-video-of-all-time/

pretty good graphics for 1998. japanese are always ahead of us.

lorceore:
Valle's May slash (69 ABs):
.391 /.400/.565/.965
His June line (29ABs):
.483/.483/.586/1.069

So, yeah. It's a SSS, but he's been crushing stuff.

clout - it's possible. of course it's possible you are remembering a couple of posters making a couple of comments about a prospect of interest and ASSUMING that they meant he would be the next Willie Mays or Cy Young. what position does this guy play?

The SSS of Altherr's presence on this website does not make him a fan favorite/overrated prospect.

I would love to have Taylor back!

BB - That BA list also had Jiwan James at 7.

(tee hee)

BA loves athletes and Altherr is a very good one.

"SSS of Altherr's presence on this website "

HAH!

A new (and legitimate) use of SSS.

BAP: Agreed, and additionally if the Phils lose the world series, its definitely Ryan Howard's contract's fault.

The Guuuuches are doing really well especially considering how dominant pitching has been across the NPB this season.
If Rizzotti went over there and had a Tyrone Woods or Alex Ramirez type career would Berrleaguer be able to handle it?

AL: There's a BL rule where you can't speak highly of any Phillies prospect that isn't listed as a sure thing by a national expert. There are even some prospects you are supposed to root against.

NEPP: BA ranking of James & Altherr is a good example of their tools-bias.

EFF: Why would you care if they were winning teams when you played them?

The point is to see how they do against the best teams in baseball. So you use their record as of right now (though ideally you would wait until the end of the year and use that). If you played and swept the Red Sox the first series of the season, you wouldn't consider that going 3-0 against a team with a losing record would you? No, that would be idiotic. You'd be 3-0 against one of the best teams in baseball.

The Marlins have proven to not be a very good baseball team. Wins against them when they happened to have a winning record doesn't change that you beat a team that wasn't all that good.

All of this DOES show that this is a really stupid statistic. You're better off gaging a team's quality not by how they do against good teams, but by how much they outscore ALL of the teams they play. Thus, run differential. A better predictor of future success than current record or record against "winning" teams.

"Thus, run differential. A better predictor of future success than current record or record against "winning" teams."

here we go again...

Jack, you can't deny that the Florida Marlins were playing better baseball earlier in the season when they were neck and neck with the Phillies. That they've completely fallen off a cliff since then does nothing to diminish the fact that, when we played them earlier this year, especially with JJ on the mound, they were a quality opponent.

Hence why EFF used record coming into the series.

Now, whether how they play against better teams really tells you anything of signficance is another story altogether.

Jack: Ever hear the quote "its not who you play, its when you play them?"

Do you really think playing the Marlins in the end of April is representative of playing a team in last place? I don't.

I love Beerleaguer...

Where else will you get updates about past Japanese contributors?

Nowhere, that's where.

BB: Yea I get my prospect fix at Phuture Phillies as many of the BL contingent do. Commenters there are just as guilty of over-hyping prospects, but if you can't get excited about them I figure what is the point of following them?

By the way, I love the prospect talk on here because it's an area in which I have very little knowledge. That, of course, won't stop me from making broad proclamations and declaring others to be idiotic (the Beerleaguer way).

Keith Law mentioned in a tweet last night that someone messed with Singleton's swing but that they recently changed it back to where it was. He didn't seem concerned about his current situation.

If he went to Japan and had a few monster years it would still be okay with me as long as we got the Japanese cheerleaders.

My thoughts on prospects?

Future Hall of Famers: Singleton and Galvis
Future All Stars: Valle, May, Cosart, Colvin
Future Major Leaguers: Gillies, Aumont, Ramirez
Future Oakland A's: Rizotti, Overbeck

Yeah, that seems fair.

In other Orix news Chan Ho Park was recently sent to the minors after struggling as a starter.

Jack,

First off, thanks for the kind words.

My post was prompted by the Murphy article today which mentions their losing record vs 'winning' teams, with no explanation of what the defintion of 'winning' is.

Does it count the Arizona series we played when they were under .500? As Fatolotti pointed out, does it count any games against Florida (for part of the year they were the 2nd best team in the league).

Why don't you tell us how the teams in the league are going to finish so we know how impressive or disheartening each series is from now on?

Singleton's back at 1B now that Savery is up to Reading.

Curious if he starts to improve over the 2nd half if they'll link it to his position change and leave him there.

***BA ranking of James & Altherr is a good example of their tools-bias.***

Exactly.

It seems that AL teams usually get the better of Interleague Play during the Regular Season, but interestingly enough the past 10 World Series have been evenly split between the Leagues, w/ 5 Wins apiece for the AL & NL ... this despite the fact that the AL has had Home Field advantage (read: DH "advantage") in 8 of those 10 Series (thanks, Bud).

EFF: I don't really care either way, because it's a stupid statistic that doesn't really mean anything, in part because of these completely arbitrary definitional issues.

If your point is that Murphy is wrong to use this stat as if it has any significance, then I'm completely with you.

If the logical extension of your point is that playing the Red Sox the first week of the season and sweeping them means you would count that as going 3-0 against a team with a losing record, that makes no sense. Or that being swept by the Astros would make you 0-3 against a team with a winning record.

AL: It's like getting excited when you buy a lottery ticket. Whatever floats your boat.

re: tonight's game

McCellan's given up 12 ER in his last 2 starts(9IP) to the Giants and Nats.

Jack, you're missing the point altogether. The Red Sox just may be the best team in baseball right now. But during the first week of the season, they were NOT! Their pitching was terrible, Carl Crawford was doing nothing, Gonzalez hadn't started to hit yet. They were a really bad team over their first 12 games. That's why they started off so terribly.

Any team that swept them early in the season who thinks that's representative over beating the Boston Red Sox now is foolish.

You have to consider the opponent you played WHEN you played them.

"Exactly...it doesn't help that 3 of the premier NL teams are basically run by incompetents when you consider the Dodgers, Mets and Cubs. All 3 should be elite but have self imploded due to terrible decisions by their GMs/ownership. All 3 have (or should have) the financial ability to compete with the very best but they've blown their money on huge mistakes."


NEPP, add in the fact that in LA, the McCourts have spent millions of dollars on themselves and their lifestyle, and leveraged the Dodger businesses to the hilt, as opposed to taking a modest profit from the franchise and putting franchise revenues toward fielding a competitive team.

clout, IIRC, no one on BL ever said Gillies or Altherr were "can't miss" prospects.

anon: its like getting excited over making things up, whatever floats his boat.

clout - I don't buy lottery tickets. But in the past when I did, I think I did it more for the heightened sense of of expectation that I could have a winner than the actual possibility that it would happen. That's probably what was kind of titilating (sp?) about moving Altherr to 3B (because the reality is that he can't hit (yet?) at any position. But rational reality says that the vast majority of minor leaguers will never have the talent necessary to make the bigs. And that a lot of guys who succeed at A+ will never even make it past AA.

So if "McCellan's given up 12 ER in his last 2 starts(9IP) to the Giants and Nats" we should expect getting shut out again tonight?

"Or that being swept by the Astros would make you 0-3 against a team with a winning record."


Jack, this season, the Astros were 0 - 3 against the Phillies in the opening series.

How do we count those games?:

1 - 0 against a .500 team and 2 - 0 against a team with a losing record? :)

When evaluating prospects, remember the old adage from Bill James' 1988 Primer:

"2. Talent in baseball is not normally distributed. It is a pyramid. For every player who is 10 percent above the average player, there are probably twenty players who are 10 pecent below average."

I think using just one season's totals to establish "winning" or "Losing" teams is not sufficient. We should count the teams aggregate record.

So any team, when it plays the Phillies, is playing a "losing" team. Whereas the Cardinals and Dodgers, of course, would be "winning teams."

The Astros are a winning team but could conceivably be a losing team by this year's completion.

If we can convince Ed Wade that the Astros are the team moving to the AL(it's been mentioned elsewhere),Rizotti(as DH) could be the centerpiece for Pence. Throw in BenFran to replace Pence,offer Lidge back,and MiniMart to replace Bruntlett.

"2. Talent in baseball is not normally distributed. It is a pyramid. For every player who is 10 percent above the average player, there are probably twenty players who are 10 pecent below average."


Posted by: Anon II | Tuesday, June 21, 2011 at 12:45 PM

Wouldn't that destroy the concept of the term "average"?

Not that I discount the notion that there are a lot more mediocre ballplayers than there are incredibly skilled ballplayers.

Wow, the Mets think they got lied to by the Rays, or at least misled when they traded Kazmir for Zambrano in 2004.

Holy moly, did the same thing happen to the Phillies in the Floyd/Gonzalez for Freddie Garcia sweepstakes?

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/27001/in-depth-kazmir-could-have-been-untraded

Wow, imagine that? One team possibly misleading another about the health of a player they are trading.

I wonder how CLE feels about Jason Knapp?

I agree that the 'record vs winning team' stat is not very instructive, especially with no details.

But I tried to make up for it some by breaking it down into categories. If we played the Red Sox at the beginning of the year those games would be in the "games against teams who were losers at the time but are now winners".

"I think using just one season's totals to establish "winning" or "Losing" teams is not sufficient. We should count the teams aggregate record."

This would explain away the Phillies atrocious record at PNC Park. How do you expect them to do against a winning team?

BTW, Charlie "Little Halladay" Morton has been awful since his start against the Phillies. Watched him surrender 7 in 2 last night.

EF, no one was criticizing you. If anything, they were expressing the same frustration you were with Murphy's lack of definiton.

(See my post above re. the Phils' 2011 record vs. the Astros.)

How about "The Phils have a winning record against winning, losing and .500 teams."

You got to use run differential is becoming one of the funniest catchphrases on here.


I especially loved the part a few weeks later where one team's move were completely discounted the following season even though they made those moves to help their run differential out.

It's almost as if the person is deciding when run differential matters and when it doesn't.

I've learned that run differential is best applied in single game scenarios. When expanded beyond single game scenarios, it's value is greatly diminished.

That's science.

CJ: I've also learned that it only matters when it is applied to how much better a team is than the Phillies.

It really works well then.

TTI: Correct. A 3-run win over the Astros is worth less than a 1-run loss to the Red Sox.

Fat: I always prefer median to average. If the 21 families in your block have evenly spaced incomes between $50,000. and $100,000.,the average and median incomes for your block is $75,000. If one of your neighbors buys that $1MM lottery ticket, the average gets skewed to $119,000., but the median remains the same.

I think that the use of run differential is as simple as the difference between prescriptive and predictive analytics.

Win-loss is great for prescriptive analytics, that is understanding what's going on right now.

Run differential is more of a predictive analytical measure, used to assess possible outcomes for the future. Like all predictive analytics, it's by no means meant to be used as a be-all/end-all. It's just better than taking a pure guess. Basically, it's using a key performance indicator (i.e. "runs for/against" in this case) and applying it to make an educated guess, rather than just a wild guess.

The bickering about it's use is comical, though, as everyone expects any stats to not only explain what's going on now (prescriptive), but to predict the future and will certainty. I guess I didn't realize that we should have such lofty expectations for statistics.

Willard: Yeah, everyone understands that... or at least should considering it's been explained numerous times. The jokes derive from the way some people choose to use run differential. It's comical at times.

Japanese league = PCL ?

"Wow, the Mets think they got lied to by the Rays, or at least misled when they traded Kazmir for Zambrano in 2004."

Anon II, did you read the article you posted? it pretty squarely put the blame on the mets for not doing their due diligence on zambrano's health, rushing into a trade without taking other bids for kazmir, and the wilpons for not wanting to "rock the boat" in failing to push for an anullment of the agreement when they could have. the fact that the rays may have fudged some papers regarding zambrano was almost ancillary.

Japanese Leagues=Pacific League and Central League. Pacific=DH. Central=No DH. Collectively=NPB or Nihon Pro Baseball

CJ: Are you sure you understand what WP posted? Because that's all I've ever understood run differential to be, and all I've ever used it for. As a decently helpful predictive tool (certainly much more predictive than current record).

Like a month ago when the Braves and Marlins had equal records but the Braves had a much better run differential. That indicated to me that the Braves would be better going forward than the Marlins, so I took an educated guess. Not all that tough to figure out.

A lot of talk about who has the best starting staff: Phils or Braves?

At this point in the season, here's the comparison:

Phils Starters
3.13 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 4.37 K/BB
Braves Starters
3.37 ERA, 1.201 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.54 K/BB

Fair to say advantage Philly. But the advantage becomes even greater when you look at just the top 4 starters:

Phils Big 4
389.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.086 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 4.92 K/BB
Braves Big 4
357.0 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.67 K/BB

Jack: Yeah... um... that's all you proclaimed. You've never made broader proclamations about future records based on run differential in the past two seasons here on Beerleaguer. You simply guessed the Braves would do better than the Marlins moving forward. Fair enough.

Jack: Come on. You know you've been selective about when you use that stat. You also know you said the Mariners trading for Bedard a few years ago was a bad move even though it was done to help fix their run differential from the previous year.

Are you trying to forget arguments you've made in the past?

Baystars, I was just making an inflated average comp between Japan and the Pacific coast league

The IP differential between the Phils and Braves staff could be the most important moving forward as it will tend to flatten any difference in bullpen strength. The figures posted above suggest the Phils have gotten the equivalent of about 5 more games pitched out of their top 4 over the Braves top 4. That's a good trend if it continues.

f4f, and? What's your point?

Hugh: Which is remarkable considering Oswalt has thrown just 69 innings so far, 14 fewer than the Braves lowest starter (Hanson 83.1 IP).

I suppose some could argue the Phils starting pitching is more likely to run out of gas with the innings they've pitched, but I think track records suggest it's not a huge worry.

CJ - I figured Oswalt is dragging it down but, the other 3 have been tremendous. I recognize there's always risk of injury or ineffectiveness that could impact their overall IP. With Lee, it seems we can almost expect a period of middling results. But, on the whole, given their physical maturity and track records, I like the odds to continue to out pitch Atlanta in that area.

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