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Thursday, May 19, 2011

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Doesn't Oswalt have a FNTC? One that he probably doesn't want to waive or wouldn't have waived?

I would not have this past offseason, no. But it will be interesting to see how Amaro plays it next offseason.

No.

Pitching wins.

Besides, the future is now for Dom Brown and the Phils weren't going to give up on Raul.

My lord, one would read this blog and think the Phillies were in dead last in the league. 42 games in and the best record in the NL and we are debating about trading away a starting pitcher for "some" hitting? I guess Worley would be Oswalt's replacement with this thinking. I do want to point out that 18 teams played last night and exactly half of them scored 1 or 0 runs. The days of 12-8 are over for now. Ridiculous trading Oswalt at this time. Ridiculous!

Um...no. In a pitcher's league, the Phils have a dominant rotation. Trading Oswalt would have defeated the purpose of signing Lee in the first place.

Perhaps Rube has simply read the writing on the wall and realized that this is once again a game dominated by pitching? Have we never heard the old baseball saying that "You're only as good as your next starting pitcher"?

Good point... Roy Oswalt has the Pat Burrell special: FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE.

That's not to say he couldn't be talked into a trade, but he seems like the kind of guy who would rather walk away then go through another trade.

Yeah, so we're pretty much all in agreement then?

Next topic please.

The Phils are in the position they are with Chase Utley, Dom Brown and Brad Lidge out for the entire season so far... Chooch starting just 23 of 42 games... and Contreras throwing just 8 innings.

We also have two of the most offensively inept corner OFers and now an injured Victorino.

All that, and we're still one of just two teams in all of baseball with a winning percentage over .600.

I can't really see a reason to deal Oswalt.

NEPP: "Yeah, so we're pretty much all in agreement then?"

We certainly can't make that assumption without hearing from bap, MG and GTown Dave.

If any pitchers are getting traded for a bat it will likely be of the Cosart, Colvin, May variety.

You can talk guys into waiving FNTC by picking up options or extending them.

Oswalt doesn't seem the type, JW.

He's already openly talked about retiring after 2011 and it was hard enough to get him to agree to come to Philly.

The War on Oswalt has been simmering for a while, but now reaches a comical new height.

No way!
This is crazy talk. Compounding the Blanton mistake by trading away one of your aces instead makes the team mediocre. Why not negotiate with Werth and try to sign him (for substantially less).

Next Thread:

Should Michael Martinez start every day?

Can't imagine Oswalt would bring back a solid middle of the order bat at this point. Other GMs can see what we see. A guy who has all the money he ever needs and who will likely retire after the season. Why would you give up a solid offensive player for that?

Myself, I hope Oswalt decides to pitch next season and it's for the Phillies.

Remember when Craig Kimbrel was the greatest closer in baseball history?

Over his last 16 games, he's just 7 for 11 in save situations and his numbers look like this:

1-2, 15 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, 24 K, 9 BB

For comparison, our 3rd string closer (who suffers from DITHL) over 17 games, 7 for 7 in save situations:

2-0, 17 IP, 0.53 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 22 K, 7 BB

I'll admit, in a vacuum, the notion is not laughable because having 4 top of the rotation starters is an embarrassment of riches that has never before been seen as essential to any team's pursuit of a championship. You need runs, too. But, Oswalt was a one year commodity this off-season and, would likely be attractive only to a team looking to win it this year. That hypothetical team (Yankees?) was not likely to part with a major league bat that would provide such a significant upgrade to the Phillies to make such a trade feasible. Commmodities like Oswalt are typically traded for prospects because that's what contending teams have to deal, not middle-of-the order major leaguers. With respect to the Phillies, there was certainly a widely-held understanding that they would not score runs at the rate of the 2007 version but, they had the makings of a complete roster - no obvious holes - with the exception of some uncertainty at the corner outfield position. But, with that uncertainty, they had a full complement of potential outfielders; the only question was who would start and if there would be a platoon. Injuries and maladies to Brown and Utley have torpedoed the plan, thus far, but even moving forward I am highly doubtful that there is a team willing to deal the bat the Phillies are lacking for Oswalt. Plus, Utley and Brown are on the way, and Ibanez is ready to get hot (cough, cough). They may eventually pull the trigger on a trade but, I can't see Oswalt being the guy they move regardless of that FNTC.

OK, a little information for everyone about Roy Oswalt's contract status: Roy Oswalt DOES NOT Have A NO TRADE CLAUSE in his contract. Here's why: When Roy was with Houston he had a NTC in his contract which he waived so he could be traded to the Phillies. Once you waive your NTC it Does Not carry over to the team you traded to.

Utley coming back and Brown being promoted will drastically improve the offense. We're still in 1st place with the best record in the NL so all the quivering over the offense is overdone.

No need to make a panic move.

that's too logical to be true, matt.

Matt: Why would that be the case? The FNTC is still written into the contract and the Phils assumed his contract. Did you read that somewhere?

The question I see is would you trade Oswalt in the off-season, not right now. During the off-season, tell me who, in their right mind, thought about trading away Oswalt at all? Think about the marketing and the season tickets first(money comes first) with the four "aces"? Joint is packed every night and the team is in first. No one would have traded Oswalt this off season or even now. Oswalt still has the ability to come back and have an extremely strong second half and that is what I predict.

We all saw how Oswalt intentionally lied to the Phillies and deliberately hurt his back lifting up that tractor. Those facts are no longer in question. But, what really took the cake was that fan-punching incident...

OSWALT DOES NOT HAVE A FNTC - Yea, the only reason I know this is because the question was asked about Oswalt's NTC yesterday when Larry Bowa was being intervied on the Phanatic (97.5) and that is how Bowa explained it.

*when Bowa was being *INTERVIEWED on the Phanatic - My Bad

That's strange. I've never heard of a FNTC becoming invalid simply because a player choose to waive it in a single instance. That would give players an even greater incentive to never waive it. I'm also not sure if Larry Bowa is the best source for the answer ;-)

I just looked it up in the phone book "Sports Contract Lawyer....Larry Bowa and Associates 215-OR 3-BALLS"

215-OR 3-BALLS?

Is that the number to phone E.T., Eddie Torres the Extra-Testicle?

It's official. Oswalt Does NOT have a NTC in his contract.

To waive the no trade clause means to make it null and void, in other words, as if it was never in the contract.

So Bowa was right, when Oswalt waived his NTC to come to the Phillies, that NTC was no longer a part of his contract.

Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_does_it_mean_to_waive_a_no_trade_clause#ixzz1Mp6ThbVZ

Hey, don't make fun of the number. My office is in the NE near Ditman Street and the Trolley stop.

NEPP wrote:

"Utley coming back and Brown being promoted will drastically improve the offense."

I don't usually disagree with NEPP, but this time he's in a large category of wishful thinkers. Dom Brown did not hit major league pitching well last year. He clearly has the potential to grow into a major offensive threat, but it is not clear that he'll be that threat this year, next year, or, really, ever. I'd be pleasantly shocked if he turned out to be a more potent offensive weapon this year than Mayberry Jr. Next year could be a different story.

Utley, on the other hand...

according to b-ref's WAR stat, here are team totals:

Pitching WAR: Phils are #1 (10.7)
Batting WAR: Phils are #22 (3.2)
Fielding WAR: Phils are #24 (-0.8)
Overall WAR: Phils are 6th (13.1).

CLE, STL, LAA, NYY, ATL have better overall WAR(in that order).

The Angels are .500 with a -0.1 run differential but yet as a team have the 3rd best WAR - odd.

the answer is FU&K NO!!!!!!!!

BTW, on the topic of the thread:

Trade Oswalt? Absolutely not.

We're not going to get a mid-lineup outfielder in exchange for one of our pitchers, especially not the one who's making the occasional comment about ending his career. If we WERE going to do something like this, I'd rather trade ... (dons fire-proof armor)... Cliff Lee (cringes and ducks.)

NO.

The issue ought to have been addressed before the Oswalt trade was even made, & I'd hate to see a guy who has pitched very well in Phillies pinstripes get traded for an unknown quantity.

Quite frankly, if Charlie isn't willing to commit to sticking w/ Dom Brown, even when he struggles (& he will struggle for awhile), the Phillies might as well trade him. At least we know Charlie will send a veteran out there day after day, & if it's a proven vet, why not?

Good job JW. Create a thread in which there is UNIVERSAL agreement just to ensure that the world will indeed end this weekend.

I haven't read Silverman's thread yet, but I can give you an answer to the question without having done so:

Unequivocally NO.

Oops... I meant Silverman, not JW.

"Have we never heard the old baseball saying that "You're only as good as your next starting pitcher"?"

Chris in syrupland:

I prefer Bowa's version:

"Momentum is sixty-feet, six-inches away."

According to David Murphy, Oswalt's no trade clause is still in effect, meaning he waived it for the instance of being traded to the Phillies only. Presumably Roy reserves the right to waive it again, if asked, but I can't imagine why he would.

I'll see you in court.

Was this thread supposed to operate like the McLaughlin Group?

rauls grandpa: YES!

Next issue!

No. Their offensive is repulsive to watch but first place speaks for itself.

I don't think Houston would have traded us Pence for Oswalt. . .

In light of the all sexual highjinx going on in the country, Joe Blanton has announced he fathered a child with Betty Crocker.

Roy Oswalt, since being traded to Philadelphia:

10-2, 2.12 ERA, .959 WHIP, 188 ERA+, 2.3 BB/9, 7.4 SO/9, 3.6 WAR

Should we have traded him for Michael Young? NO.

I love having this pitching staff, but when Lee signed, I immediately thought of this rotation being too much of a good thing for the playoffs. Last postseason, the fourth starter (Blanton) pitched in one game. Yeah, that was mostly because of the first-round sweep and the schedule layout, but the need for a bat seemed like it would be far greater than any impact a fourth starter. Even one as good as Oswalt may not even be needed the way the schedule is.

On the other hand, Blanton pitched some big games in 08 as the fourth starter. I guess it all depends on what they could have received for Oswalt.

Trading Oswalt for this mysterious outfielder would have left us with the 2010 team, but with Lee subbing for Oswalt and a new outfielder subbing for Werth -- and undoubtedly failing to replicate his .921 OPS from 2010. Utley and Vic would still be injured, Ibanez would still be old, and Ruiz and Howard would still be stinking it up. Only difference is that KK would be in the starting rotation, putting up normal KK starting numbers, as opposed to the very good numbers he has given us out of the pen. Oh yeah . . . and we'd be bitching about how the departed Roy Oswalt has out-pitched the newly-signed Cliff Lee.

So, wasn't sure there'd be a source I'd worry about more than Larry Bowa, but along comes Dlmick from Wiki Answers. His bio:

Virginia born & bred. Software developer. Retired. Avid Washington sports fan. Nature lover. Enjoy 60s-70s rock, blues, Rodney Dangerfield, Henny Youngman, Three Stooges. Joined Millionaire Club. Working on 2nd million. Figure I'll never make the 1st so I'll start work on the 2nd. Favorite quote "Everytime you think you weaken the nation" (Moses Horwitz).

The ace that will command the most in return is Cole Hamels. Not Roy Oswalt. Would Amaro consider moving Hamels? They have Lee for 5 years and Hamels is young but I can't see them moving anyone else unless they empty the farm again.

quincey: "Good job JW. Create a thread in which there is UNIVERSAL agreement just to ensure that the world will indeed end this weekend."

That's awesome. I'd give it a +1 if I didn't hate that so much.

No, it's not something that should be considered, especially since there is uncertainty to Blanton.

The RH bat should have been picked this past off-season via free-agency. There were players available at reasonable prices. Jeff Francoeur, who is having a good year, would have fit the bill. But because of supposed payroll restraints after the Lee signing, it was decided not to spend any more money.

Where that strategy back-fired is Francisco showing why he's a bench player, Mayberry's in-experience (although playing well), and of course the injuries to Utley and Brown. But those could not be foreseen.

Now to aquire a bat, they'd probably have to trade prospects, which they wouldn't (and probably shouldn't) be inclined to do.

With all that being said, they're still 10 games above .500 and in 1st place. If they can remain there wuntil they get healthy, they should win the division easily.

All of this does not mean the roster remain unchanged however. We are seeing what happens when there is a lack of depth with position players at both the Major League and AAA levels.

No. Their offensive is repulsive to watch but first place speaks for itself.

"Sweet Jeebus that gal's UGLY, but she really gets me off ..."

robbie e: Why in the world would you move a pitcher who may be the best LHP in baseball and is under team control next season?

How about some opinions on the worst trade by the Phillies in the past 20 years....I'll get the ball rolling by suggesting it was Gavin Floyd AND Gio Gonzalez for....Freddy Garcia! YUCK!!!

robbie: Funny you should mention Blanton's one playoff game, because it's also the first thing I thought of after we signed Cliff Lee. But my reaction was not, "It's overkill. Blanton only pitched one post-season game." My reaction was, "Terrific. This will spare us ever having to trot out Joe Blanton in a playoff game, like we did last year." That one playoff game didn't turn out too well, you'll recall.

Mitch: Curt Schilling, hands down.

The Garcia trade looks horrible in retrospect, but actually looked good at the time. The Schilling trade was a monstrosity from the minute it was made.

If I have to read that Jeff Francoeur would have been a good choice one more time...

In 3143 NL at bats, he posted an OPS+ of 91.
In 211 AL at bats since he was dealt last year, he's posted an OPS+ of 138.

So, which of these two players would the Phillies more likely have gotten?

BAP: Yeah, Blanton wasn't good in that game at all, but I remember Durbin's agonizing inning pissing me off waaaaaaayyy more. Slow torture.

Worst trades?

Scott Rolen for Bud Smith, Placido Polanco and Mike Timlin. Looks okay, with Polly in there, but we only got 2 seasons from him because we wanted to keep David Bell.

Curt Schilling for Nelson Figueroa, Vicente Padilla, Travis Lee, Omar Daal. Padilla had a 105 ERA+ in 6 seasons in Philly including a 14-11, 3.28 ERA season. And we should have kept Nelson Figueroa, obviously.

Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle for CJ Henry, Matt Smith, Jesus Sanchez, Carlos Monasterios and a future WFC. Obviously, this was a great deal for Philly despite getting zero production from our side of the haul because it DIRECTLY lead to a WFC. Right?

CJ: That last deal was great because I couldn't stand Abreu or Lidle, & it turned out the Phillies didn't need them to win, anyway.

Equally pressing debate-

Which of the following is the better trade:
1. Singleton for Pujols (Albert plays 3B, Polly moves to 2B, and Utley takes over LF when he comes back)

2. Singleton for King Felix (slots in as #5 starter; Blanton moves to 'pen, Baez demoted)

??

I'd like to nominate Jack Taschner for worst trade too just because I can't remember many Phillies I've hate more, recently at least. Only Barajas and Eaton off the top of my head.

CJ-

Larry Bowa and Ryne Sandberg for Ivan DeJesus?

This team is built for the playoffs. Oswalt is part of the reason why, assuming everyone is healthy, the phils would be favored in any short series. Who can forget when somehow in 09 we went into the WORLD FREAKING SERIES with Pedro Martinez as our second best starter??????!??!?!!?! If we had one of the two other aces with Lee we'd be talking this year about shooting for 3 in 4 years.

So no, my vote is let's keep one of the best starters in baseball.

Yep, quincy nailed it.

CJ- Can we re-aquire Bobby Abreau and then flip him for the WMFC in a 3 team deal? This seems like our best bet.

I can't be more enthusiastic about how stupid it is to even entertain the idea of trading Roy Oswalt.

Yo, new thread

Stotch: us bl'ers take 'yo next thread' very seriously - that is a harsh offense to throw it around incorrectly.

@NEPP -

"No need to make a panic move." -agreed.

"Utley coming back and Brown being promoted will drastically improve the offense."
--- I am not so sure about this. Other teams have stocked up on lefties to counter the Phillies lefty-heavy lineup. I am afraid inserting those 2 isn't going to do too much for us.
Hope I am wrong.

Brown looks better this time around and he probably learned a bunch from his early debut. Lots of guys look a bit rough when they first come up and then turn it on. He'll be a contributor at some point soon.

Was Pedro Martinez really bad in 2009? You're saying he was our second starter like he was Jamie Moyer...which he wasn't. He K'd 7.46/9, BB 1.61, and an ERA of 3.63.

I mean, he definitely wasn't Cy Young, but those stats aren't laughable for a second starter.

Yeah I'm pretty sure Oswalt's FNTC is still in effect.


On the topic- I don't necessarily think trading Oswalt would've been a good move either. With what we have as a rotation we have the best rotation in the NL and probably in baseball. We have an offense right now that is struggling because some key pieces are missing time, or their is a lack of production from certain guys. I said it the other game thread and I'll say it again. By the middle of June you are probably looking at this line-up;

Rollins
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Mayberry/Ibanez
Victorino
Brown/Francisco
Ruiz

That is a good line-up and let's see how they play together. Plus it would allow you to use Ben and Ibanez in spots that are your best chance of maximizing their effect (i.e. Ibanez vs righties, Ben vs fastballing relievers)

This team will be fine. They gained games overnight against their rivals again which gives some extra breathing room. And as I said yesterday, even if they slip into second or third- the Braves and Marlins are not good enough to run and hide.

Rollins SS, Martinez CF, Polanco 3B, Howard 1B, Gload RF, Ibanez LF, Ruiz C, Orr 2B, Blanton P

ross gets a start....

Martinez gets to play every day now, but Mayberry doesn't?

Not that Mayberry has been any good since he started playing every day, but he's still better than Martinez.

Clearly, then, it's time for Martinez's first career homerun.

"Where that strategy back-fired is Francisco showing why he's a bench player"

(DomPatrone, I'm not singling you out, you just happen to be the quote I'm using as a reference.)

I cannot believe the lack of respect BenFran is getting in these parts, and, despite the many pronouncements to the contrary, a large number of posters here are trashing him based on very thin evidence.

The guy puts a .775 OPS (105 OPS+) in 1,221 PA coming into the season, had a .272/.340/.457 in 103 PA as recently as April 29th, and he's getting tossed under the bus by the BL conventional wisdom over his last 54 PA?

I'll keep track of who's bashing Benny from here on out, so that when I post some stat(s) and they try to call me out on sample size I can point out their abject hypocrisy.

Oh, and BTW, depite his lack of hits and power, BenFran has an OBP during those 54 PA of .302, which is still better than Ryan Howard's OBP [.284] his last 67 PA.

I love that Mini-Mart is the 2 hole hitter. Why not start Mayberry and put him there? Or...really crazy here, bump Polly up to 2, Howard up to 3, Gload up to 4, Ibanez up to 5, Mini Mart 6, etc etc.

I'd kind of like to see Mayberry leading off, actually.

awh: I think you also need to mark down those that back track off that statement.

My suggestion- keep logs of the comments.

Mini Mart has 4 of the Phillies last 22 hits.

Just sayin'.

Oh, and BTW, you want one reason why the offense has sucked the last several games:

Ryan Howard in his last 67 PA:

.172/.284/.362 with 21 Ks.

Let the Howard bashing commence...

It's amazing.

We all agree on something.

The idea of trading Oswalt is pure stupidity.

Heather, 09 Martinez was ok, but out of baseball the next year, which should tell you something about how other teams viewed his true performance. I think that 09 Martinez would be the #5 starter on this team.

Bottom line, you cannot have too much great pitching, and trading away a starter like Oswalt for almost anything we are likely to get is foolish beyond comment.

Chacin is *really* tough on RHB this season, and tough on them in general in his career. Makes sense to give Mayberry Jr. a day on the bench... especially considering he's 1 for his last 11 with 0 BBs over his last 3 starts.

Tonight's lineup features just 2 RHBs, Polly and Chooch.

"The idea of trading Oswalt is pure stupidity."

That might be the first time we actually agree.

howard is pressing......

CJ, .....blind squirrel/nut....

MiniMart is a AAA player. Period.

awh: please put me in your log of francsico bashers - thx.

I cannot even imagine the backlash from Phils fans if RAJ would have traded away Oswalt shortly after signing Lee, only a year after the backlash he felt trading Lee when he got Halladay.

All those weeks of everyone coming up with their nicknames for this rotation would have been spent spewing venom and calling for RAJ's head. Not to mention all of the posts citing Oswalt's stats with another club every time Blanton/KK/Worley struggled.

Jay:
How can you tell? Striking out a lot? Guessing wrong?

Jay, whatever Howard is doing it's not working very well.

Look, I love Howie, and I love watching him hit. But he's in a slump right now and that's a big reason the offense has slumped as well.

No, no and no.

Good for G-load getting the start in RF. Interested to see if he is worse than Francisco in the field - he probably is, but i dont think it will be too much worse.

I have recorded in my log that awh is a Howard basher.

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