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Monday, May 23, 2011

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Repost from last thread:

Tell me Ross Gload's value on the bench, BAP and Wes....Can he be a defensive replacement? No Can he be a pinch runner? No Is his bat anymore powerful than a healthy Scotty Pods? No Is he right handed? No

If scotty pods is to join the big club, it will be at Ross Gloads expense. My opinion would be to chop mini mart, but I am just trying to think logically knowing Raj's track record.

28-18, on pace for 99 wins, one of just 2 teams in baseball with a .600 or better winning percentage, still 5 losses up on the Braves.

And plenty to complain about. Beerleaguer must be the most satisfying blog in the world. There's something for everyone!

5 1/2 wins theoretically by getting Utley back? BS. I also don't expect him to be much of a defensive upgrade either at this point even with Valdez's subpar defense.

Just hope that Utley can hold up to the rigors of playing everyday in the field and even give them around an .800 OPS. He does that & he will have a huge impact on this team.

Valdez ranks 231st out of 247 players in MLB with his .551 OPS who have at least 100 PA. Even for a backup middle infielder, his numbers have been anemic.

Wilpon is a dope:

Wilpon told a reporter from The New Yorker last week that Wright is a "very good player" but "not a superstar." The third baseman replied Monday via email: "Fred is a good man and is obviously going through some difficult times. There is nothing more productive I can say at this time."

nonamePhame: "Is his bat anymore powerful than a healthy Scotty Pods? No"

Um... Yes? Ross Gload's slugging percentage is 30 points higher than Podsednik's in their careers. Just last season, Gload had a .484 slugging percentage in 138 plate appearances. Podsednik slugged under 400 in 6 of the last 7 seasons.

If the question is whether Podsednik is a better bench player than Gload, that's fine... there's an argument there (assumign Podsednik is healthy). But let's not pretend there wouldn't be a rather larger drop off in power.

since these were all at the end of the last thread, i'll group them together:

my expectations of utley - he'll be a lot better than this:

"Phillies second basemen are hitting a collective .225/.269/.270. The Astros starting pitchers are hitting .226/.261/.262." - from fangraphs


credit the skipper for staying patient with one raul ibanez. i, for one, was in the group who thought him cooked. check out some of his may numbers:

wOBA - .394
SLG - .544
OPS - .896

he's streaking the right way right now.


i wonder if scotty pods was the reason Amaro didn't want to call up Brown. perhaps he knew it was in the weeds but couldn't share that info w/ charlie (b/c it wasn't a done deal or whatever). that might explain their debate on whether to call up the kid or not.

Is Francisco the odd man out with Scotty Pods MAYBE being called up? Perhaps, he can bring in a backup catcher/LHRP or something (not aiming too high).

Last time Ross Gload hit a HR-- August 10, 2010. That is all

Gload is the best pinch hitter on the bench and one of the better pinch hitters in baseball. That is his value on the bench. And yes he does have more power than a healthy Posednik.

I know that based on the HUGE track record of David Herndon being kept around for an entire season that RAJ has earned the reputation for refusing to give up on a Rule 5 draftee. However, if it comes down to it and RAJ decides to replace either Mini Mart or Gload with Posednik, it will be Mini Mart who goes.

Gload:

Career BABIP: .304
2011 BABIP: .385

For you statistical geniuses on Beerleaguer, that is called a prime case for regression to the mean.

Oh and he also has seven strike outs and 0 walks. and the ever impressive 0 home runs.....classic case of beerleaguers overvaluing a bench player.

With that said, I would still vote off Mini-Mart...but as I said before, RAJ doesn't think like us.

Gload also is the back-up 1st baseman. I know Howard will play everyday if healthy. But is Howard were to hit the 15 day DL, whould you prefer more Valdez at 2nd with Chase playing 1st or Chase staying at 2nd and Gload playing 1st?

Wes, Mayberry is the back-up first baseman on this team. You seem to forget Charlie HATES using Gload in the field.

"...it will be Mini Mart who goes."

I certainly hope so, but there seems to be an irrational attachment to him on the part of the FO.

He seems to offer little to no value defensively or offensively.

nonamePHame: Ah, I see... the new way to measure power is to look at how long ago someone hit a home run. Well then, I submit. Scott Podsednik and his 1 home run since June 7th, 2010 is infinitely more powerful than Ross Gload and his 0 HR since August 10, 2010.

I am saying that power isn't a factor CJ. Even if power slighly favors Gload, it is not significant. If scottie pods is healthy....he wins in EVERY other facet of comparison (mentioned above).

You seem to forget that Gload was the starting first baseman last year when Howard was hurt and he had several good games before he blew out his hamstring.

Mayberry played a few games at first in Spring Training.

Correction, missed one on the Game Log... Podsednik has had 1 HR since July 25th, 2010, and that's in 174 plate appearances. Ross Gload has 6 HR in his last 170 plate appearances.

nonamePHame: Fine, make that argument. There may be some merit to it. But it's crazy to suggest that Podsednik has anywhere near the power that Gload does. It's not close.

nonamePHame - Forget whatever you're thinking. Gload is the only bat Charlie will use in a high leverage situation. In fact, Charlie considers his pinch hitting so important that he often saves him or situations that never happen. That sounds crazy but it's absolutely true.

They will not cut, demote, trade or in any other way mess with Ross Gload. There are five players on the roster at minimum who would be gone before Gload.

BAP, at some point last year, on the Phillies broadcast, they mentioned that Utley has hit ~.280 against LHP out of the bullpen. They didn't give anymore than just his BA, but the idea was that he's fared pretty well against LOOGYs. I'd bet that his numbers are better against right handed starters and left handed starters and right handed relievers, but I think he does pretty well against LOOGYs.

We can argue all we want, I am just saying that it probably won't be Mini-Mart. No way they send the kid down again. Thus, it is one of the following people:

Mayberry--Not going anywhere (speed, defense, power)
Francisco--Not going anywhere (I don't know what they find attractive other than younger and under team control)
Gload--Only redeeming quality is that BLers say that he "is the best pinch hitter on the team". When we know how that stat comes and goes (see Dobbs, Greg)

We are now a small ball team. We have the pitching...we need the speed and defense.

Speed: Pods
Defense: Pods
Power: SLIGHT Gload
BA: Similar
Ability to Play the OF: HAHA

****So here’s Utley, back from the dead.****

Chillin' at the beach down at Club Med?

Hallday, Lee, Hamels 1,2,11 in strikeouts in the MLB. Hamels has 1 less start than them as well.

noname: "We can argue all we want, I am just saying that it probably won't be Mini-Mart."

Hard to argue/debate with you if thats you're reasoning on Martinez - "it probably wont be MiniMart."

If Podsednik is called up - I would predict Martinez.

Lorecore, please read above, I have made myself very clear that, just like David Herndon, Mini-Mart will be protected like he is a gifted child who will cure cancer one day.

nonamePHame: Again... no need to create some myth that Podsednik and Gload are at all comparable in the power department. There is no "slight" edge to Gload. It's significant.

It's okay to make your argument, which may be very valid, without making things up. It's possible Podsednik would be a better all-around bench player than Gload. But Gload has significantly better power.

David Hale has a cool column up on the starting pitchers.

He looked at Doc, Cliff, Roy and Cole and threw out their worst start. Here is the cumulative line:

229 IP, 181 H, 53 ER, 240 K, 45 BB, 2.08 ERA

Hale writes, "Just consider those numbers for a second. That's 7.1 hits per 9 innings, a nearly 5-to-1 K/BB ratio and better than a strikeout per inning pitched. Those numbers account for 32 of the Phillies' 45 games so far (71 percent) and the starters have a combined 2.08 ERA in them."

CJ...we aren't talking about Ryan Howard....Ross Gload has 34 career homeruns hahahahaha. Oh boy, what significant power....For the sake of argument Scottie Pods has 41 lol.

Would the Phils really carry just 1 utility IF if they brought up Podsednik?

Gload: OF, 1B
Mayberry: OF, 1B
Brown: OF
Sardinha: C
Valdez: 2B, SS, 3B

That's pretty sketchy considering Utley won't be playing every day upon his return.

And a 6-man bullpen is out of the question when you're already on your 3rd closer.

Yeah, we get it noname. But, they are paying Gload more than what MiniMart is making, so they'd probably keep him.

They would have mini-mart and valdez as utility infielders, CJ.

nonamePHame:

Ross Gload, 1 HR every 47 AB
Scott Podsednik, 1 HR every 90 AB

lol?

Another Rule 5 fiasco, Martinez shouldn't have been on the team to begin w/ ... & yet somehow, he's still here. (NEPP had a couple of great posts in the previous thread explaining the many ignorant excuses why Martinez won't be leaving, so there's no need to retread that ground here). Point being, Martinez isn't going anywhere.

Much as w/ Danys Baez, r00b somehow felt it was necessary to give Ross Gload a 2 year deal when no one else would have offered him more than 1 year. Unlike Baez, however, Gload hasn't hurt the team every single time he appeared on the field. Still, the Phillies aren't going to pay Charlie's favorite mismanaged PH $1.6 Million not to play. Gload's not going anywhere.

That leaves Ibañez, Francisco, Mayberry & Brown. Ibañez is Charlie's boy, & is getting paid $11.5 Million this season. You won't even get him out of the starting lineup, let alone off of the team. Ibañez isn't going anywhere.

Mayberry is a RHB on a team full of lefties, & Charlie liked how he stole a base or two that one time. Little things like that are catnip for Charlie. Mayberry isn't going anywhere.

Francisco is a poor hitter, a worse fielder, isn't worth the occasional lucky HR swing & makes about half a million less than Gload. He'd be my choice for dumping once Vic returns, or Podsednik is added to the roster ...

However, r00b has consistently balked when it comes to Dom Brown. Even though Dom has reached a point in his development where Minor League ABs are of (at best) dubious value, & ought to be given the patience afforded to such Offensive drains as Ibañez & Francisco, I really do not believe the Phillies will do so. I'll bet Brown gets sent down when Vic returns, or if Podsednik gets the call.

"Placido Polanco, for all his talent, is really just a complimentary piece, signed to bring out the best in his teammates through situational hitting and applying pressure."

"Just" a complementary piece?

To me, what you're saying is he can't carry the team, but he's a fine piece of the team. And I agree - but I wouldn't diminish his value with the modifier "just."

It's really not that different than saying that Howard can't carry the team, either. I know we say he can when he gets hot, but as you point out, there need to be hitters around him to pressure the pitcher to give Howard pitches to hit. So even Howard is only a piece (and not as much of a Big Piece the past year as we'd hoped).

Unfortunately, no one on this team is able to get it done alone, and collectively, they are performing so far below par that there is plenty of blame to go around. At least Raul is hitting this month - but it hasn't made much difference.

They're sinking together, at the plate. On the mound, they're swimming fine.

If they were going to get rid of mini-mart, it would have been when Chase came up...not when they signed a 4th OF.

nonamePHame: My point is they wouldn't bring up Podsednik and send down Mini Mart. Not with the roster constructed as it is. That means if Podsednik comes up, the player who goes down is like Dom Brown.

What makes anybody think that Podsednik is getting called up? He's minor league filler till he gets tired of AAA and asked the Phils for his release.

to follow on johnnysanz - i used K/9 to even out the IP across NL.

it goes Lee Hamels Halladay as #2,9,10.

Matt Garza is at 11 K/9 to lead the league.

GBrettfan: Actually Howard CAN(has) carry the entire team when he's hot.

Everything else I agree with, just thought i'd point that out.

Dom Brown will not be sent down. Not after the comments Charlie made a few days ago...Dom Brown is our everyday RF (platooned until he gets his feet wet)

"CJ...we aren't talking about Ryan Howard....Ross Gload has 34 career homeruns hahahahaha. Oh boy, what significant power....For the sake of argument Scottie Pods has 41 lol."

Career ABs

Gload: 1593

Pods: 3707

Power advantage still Gload.

the alwasy awesome stat that comes around anytime Hamels faces the Reds:

Hamels Career vs Cincy: 6-0, 1.07ERA, .908 WHIP in 50.2IP in 7 career starts, including 2 CG and 1 shutout and an opposing batters line of .163/.245/.297 in 194 PA.

Listen fact of the matter is our squad hasn't been 100 percent at all this season. Lets get chase back which I think he is ready bs to thoose who say he needs more abs. And lets get Vic back and solidify this line up then we can see what we need etc. I think Scotty is a huge upgrade over gload. We are a small ball team. The league as a whole the o is down. Chase at three and Vic lead off (I wish) and j roll 5/6 depend on match up run production easily 4.5 runs guarantee it. 4 runs 17-2 look it up

lorecore: So basically what we're looking at tonight is a 1-0 Loss, that 1 Run either Unearned or surrendered by the Bullpen?

gtown: i dont know, Hamels has been swinging the stick decently this year. offensive explosion waiting to happen. Phils score 3!

Check out this tweet from one of the non-prospects acquired in the C____ L__ trade:

@TysonGillies21: Ran 100% for the first time in a year today! Hoping leg feels great tomorrow!!

I've got to believe Rube has a little Andy Reid in him. If he keeps Mini-Mart up it will be to satsfy his ego. Like with Reid, it's not enough to win. I also have to prove that I am smarter than everyone else. Any time you hit on a Rule 5 guy that's the way it looks. I took a guy that everybody else thought was crap and he turns into a ballplayer. Martinez is less than zero. Watching him come in on that line drive over his head a few nights ago just confirms that. He aint no major leaguer. Andy Reid, Tony LaRussa they are waaaay smarter than anyone else. Rube? I hope that's not his angle. Just stick to being the Prince of Darkness.

"@TysonGillies21: Ran 100% for the first time in a year today! Hoping leg feels great tomorrow!!"

The answer to our offensive woes!

lorecore: Good point. If the Phillies score a Run, I give Cole as much chance of driving it in as anyone. Maybe he can avoid the Oswalt-like undeserved "L" & earn a no-decision w/ his bat.

And speaking of Martinez, we're pretty much doomed to seeing him start tonight, aren't we?

donc: I think when ruben brought Cliff Lee back after trading him away, that was a pretty telling sign that he is not scared to admit fault and do what he thinks is best - and not let perception of him being wrong/not smart get in the way.

CJ - Looks like it's time to call Gillies up to the big team. Apparently, he runs like the wind and has more power than Ross Gload.

I am seriously a Tyson Gillies fan. If the dude becomes good enough to play everyday, he has the tools to be an All-Star, the gamey type of player who will be a fan favorite.

As to the immediate problem, if Uts is healthy, and Brown can hit a lick, we'll have big dividends right away. Good times around the corner for Phis Phans!!!

Mayberry and Francisco are redundant. Both are hitting poorly now. It appears that Francisco's defense in CF is not as good as Mayberry (though Francisco substituted for Victorino's DL trip a couple years ago).

If Posednik joins the Phils it should be Mayberry who is sent down as Francisco has a longer Major League track record. Of course if Brown is not playing every day then he should be sent down.

Martinez is likely around until Utley is okay playing every day and Victorino is back. Posednik is not considered an above average fielder and I would not want him in CF any more than Francisco.

I like Gillies 'cause he got the money and the yayo.

First comment on Talking Chop about their injured outfielders (Heyward and McLouth):

"Shoulda signed Posednik".

GTown Dave: Awesome. Well played.

I think it is "Should OF signed Posednik"

What makes anyone think Pods even makes the team? I think it's more than likely he goes the way of Luis Castillo.

Lorecore: That's a fair point but I do think there is a distinction to be made between admitting a mistake (which is very rare at that level of professional sports) and hubris. I could be wrong but I do think Rube is guilty of the latter. I am not in the habit of criticizing him, in fact I like his style, but he is a tad smug. And I call him the Prince of Darkness (P.O.D.) out of respect not contempt.

"Mayberry and Francisco are redundant."

Mayberry is a much better base runner and defensive player. Francisco's a somewhat better hitter, especially against RHP. But, yeah, there's quite a bit of redundancy there.

If we're at the point where Scott Podsednik is our offensive hope, I weep for this team. Honestly, having Chase back and a hot-streanking Raul will be enough until RAJ somehow acquires a decent bat at the trade deadline.

Unless he, once again, decides to get us a pitcher...

Glad to have Posednik. Every day Domonic spends above AAA hurts his trade value.

Ryan Howard must love all of this roster stuff. Fewer people will notice how awful he's been.

We enjoy picking our noses and eating what we find.

Dude I'm eating lunch at my desk. Come on.

i vote we trade Will Schweitzer to BL Chicago. i'll take the bag that the balls normally come in.

Scweitzer to Chicago for an MVPTommyD to be named later.

"I was hoping that John Mayberry had caught that kind of spark, but his bat is now smoldering."


JW, I disagree. Mayberry's bat, as well as the rest of the Phillies' bats, has been coated with

Flame Stop I-DS

Now that Schweitzer's been exposed at this level, I doubt we can get that much for him. Should have kept him on the farm.

I thought that the site's masthead refers to "alternative viewpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies." If that's true, then why are posters with divergent views met with playground-level derision whenever they open their mouths? According to some of the comments I've read over the past week, if you think Charlie Manuel is a mediocre manager who (up till now) has been blessed with good players, you deserve to be deported from the US. If you think that Domonic Brown looks terrible at the plate and has yet to demonstrate any MLB-level talent, you're an enemy of the team who would rather see them lose. And if you advocate trading Brown before he's exposed as a washout (I heartily agree with Schweitzer that this is what the FO should do) and point out that the Big Piece is not playing like a 25 Million Dollar Man, you're a booger-eater. (Is boogerivious a word?) I think the "alternative viewpoints" line should be removed from the masthead; I see no difference between most Beerleaguer posters and some guy in the front row of the bleachers wearing a Phillies jersey and drinking his seventh beer as he cheers the team on.

Schweitzer and AT to BL Chicago for a Pizzeria Uno Prima Pepperoni. done and done!

let's bring out all the stops - Clout is gonna love this link:

http://crashburnalley.com/2011/05/23/performance-and-results/

and AT, this forum is nothing if not littered with "alternative viewpoints". doesn't stop people from criticizing the stupidest ones. nor should it.

"5 1/2 wins theoretically by getting Utley back? BS."


MG, I disagree with it being 5-1/2 wins for the rest of the season.

But the difference between Utley and Valdez/Orr/mini-mart is about 1 win every 30 games.

Go check the Prediction Day thread, and you'll see my post on the subject after I ran the baseballmusings.com lineup analyzer.

IF Utley plans to his averages, and IF he stays healthy, he should add about 4 more wins to the total by the end of the season.

"If you think that Domonic Brown looks terrible at the plate and has yet to demonstrate any MLB-level talent, you're an enemy of the team who would rather see them lose."

How about if you say that you hope Domonic Brown stinks it up so that all the people who touted him on Beerleaguer would be proven wrong? Because that is what you actually said, in spite of how you are now trying to spin it.

Dom might yet be a poor hitter in the MLs. But if he learns to hit, he has the tools to be an all-star. No one knows if any player will be able to make that leap, but anyone who's followed Dom in the minors even a little knows that he has a huge amount of talent which, if it translates in the ML, will translate very well indeed.

Saying "Minor League player X will never be a great ML player" isn't exactly going out on a limb. A whole lot of them don't fulfill their potential. I'm not certain myself if Brown will put it all together. But if he does...

***Moronacracy Post of the Day Alert***


"Last time Ross Gload hit a HR-- August 10, 2010. That is all

Posted by: nonamePHame"


noname, what possible context can you aplly to the stupidity I quoted above?

Guess what, Ronnie Belliard and Dane Sahdinha hven't hit HRs in games since June 27, 2010 and July 4, 2010, respectively.
sfw.

@Oliver: Can never have enough pitching ;-)

What BAP said. That is what people usually object to. Some posters clearly would rather be right about XYZ than the Phillies winning. That troll-like attitude just sucks. And I am in the camp that does not predict anything near greatness for Brown. But I am very anxious to see what the kid can do. I am not sure enough to advocate trading him. That's for sure. But I will be absolutely thrilled to be proven wrong.

Dan Uggla. Ouch.

Fresh off his 5-year, $62M extension, Uggla has a .600 OPS, 66 OPS+ and just 14 RBI while hitting in the meat of the Braves lineup and playing every game this season (207 PAs).

For comparison's sake, our 2B have collectively gotten 168 PAs (been pinch hit for a lot apparently) and have 10 RBI with a .550 OPS and 62 OPS+.

The Dom Brown hate comically premature. Let the guy play for a while and if he's good he's good. If he's bad, then oh well. We gave it a shot. But to say he's worthless without giving him a serious and prolonged opportunity is not an alternative viewpoint, it's an uninformed one.

Gotta love it when the general arguments here are usually because posters call others too negative - and then you get AT posting about how beerleaguer is a fraud because all they do is cheer the team on.

lorecore: yup, beerleaguer posters = front office sycophants. (AT must be new here)

More Moronocracy:

"CJ...we aren't talking about Ryan Howard....Ross Gload has 34 career homeruns hahahahaha. Oh boy, what significant power....For the sake of argument Scottie Pods has 41 lol.

Posted by: nonamePHame"


noname, how many career PA does each player have? Do you think that maybe, just maybe, that might have something to do with it?

Just askin'.

I sure wish the Phillies had given up on Chase Utley after his first season:

152 PAs, 239/322/373

Lineup:

Rollins, Utley, Polanco, Howard, Ibanez, Ruiz, Brown, Mayberry, Hamels.

The days of lineup-by-number are gone. I can't imagine a single person on Beerleaguer would have predicted tonight's lineup.

Eh, that'll do I guess.

I really think Ruiz is the best fit for the 8hole - but since the offense is struggling so much I guess you need him to get some clutch hits with men on base more than you need his ability to turn the lineup over.

Is that for real?

I just finished the thread. I see that Schweitzer is displaying his racist hatred of Dom Brown again. Probably doesn't like Dom's last name.

I can't believe UC would put Chase anywhere other than 3. Ruiz 6th??

That is in theory a really good lineup.

CJ is that the official lineup? I really don't know why they are still hitting Poly 3rd

I got 3 spots right 1, 4 and 7.

DiffSteve, maybe Charlie wants to split the lefties?

Ciincy does have 2 lefties in the 'pen, Bray and Chapman. Bray has been pretty good this year even finishing 5 games. Chapman, OTOH, has walked a TON of guys and gotten knoecked around a little.

thats the lineup!!

awh: Chapman is on the DL.

AWH. That wasn't the premise of my argument. Your judgment of my thoughts is skewed from sample size. If you read through everything that I said....based on RAJ's track record....IF Pods makes it to the majors that it probably will be at the expense of Ross Gload.

I know I know..."but he is our best pinch hitter!!!!"

LOL, you fools are hilarious.

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