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Monday, May 30, 2011

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**Repost** Odds on Mini-Mart back to the Nats? I'd say there's a 70% chance that he stays. Charlie seems to like him a lot (IMO; I just get that feeling), and the Phils love them some Rule 5 players. Just a thought to offset b_a_p's declaration that it is a stone cold mortal lock that he's released when Victorino returns.

Replace Mayberry with Vic, and that's a pretty good lineup.

Jack: If it were me, I'd play Dom every day right now. Charlie's been using Mayberry vs. RHP even though scouting reports say he can't hit 'em. Not sure why he wouldn't give Dom the same opportunity.

Sigbn nme up for the denny b/MG suggested player moves: Gload to DL, Mini-Mart cut, Vic off DL and Delmon Young recalled.

Gload is essentially useless right now.

Clout: I'd play Dom every day as well. Time to give him the shot. He showed no platoon splits in the minors.

Cut, aside from Vic (who worked out) and Herndon (who hasnt worked out yet but didn't hurt the phillies last year), have the phils carried any other Rule 5 players?

If we had Delmon Young, I'd be all for that...Delwyn not so much.

Victorino was not carried all year in 2005 by the Phillies. He was offered back to the Dodgers after 21 games, but they didn't take him back, so the Phillies put him in AAA for the rest of the season. At that time, Victorino was 24. Michael Martinez is 29.

Victorino was a better player and a much better prospect because of his age. The Phillies still didn't keep him around all year. The decision to keep Martinez is laughable and has no justification whatsoever.

Spitz -- Good point. Herndon was so hard to watch at times last year that my perception is clouded on the Phils’ Rule 5 player retention. However, if Mini-Mart stays, a warped perception suddenly becomes a trend.

Jack, clout and I are on the same page... I wonder if we can get MG or bap to agree and harken in the end of the world.

Brown should start every day.

Interestingly, the Phillies are leading the league in run prevention, and its almost entirely because of the pitching, not the defense.

The defense is 3rd worst in the league in turning balls in play into outs (1-BABIP). While BABIP is considered an indicator of "luck" for individual pitchers, one thing that we consider "luck" for pitchers is really just how good the defense is behind them. Good defenses turn balls in play into outs. The Phillies, while not making many errors, simply don't get to many balls in the field anymore.

However, the pitching is so absurdly good (most Ks in MLB, fewest walks), that they're still the best run prevention team in the league. What you're witnessing is one of the best pitching staffs you'll ever see.

I agree with mostly everyone that at age 29 I have seen enough of Mini-Mart. Cut him and bring up someone from Lehigh.

Jack -- How star-struck were Gillick and the Phils, mid-2000s? Got to keep Shane after offering him back. Awesome. Wasn’t it Gillick that also found a toolsy outfielder with successful wrist surgery?

I'm still shaking my head at Werth's gold-plated contract. RISP production notwithstanding, he was a key part in getting us to 97 wins last year. I wonder, in light of our insane budgetary restraints at this point, if "Stand Pat" might have 1 more move up his sleeve? I’d like to think RAJ still listens very, very carefully to any of Gillick’s suggestions.

Cut: Actually Wade made the Victorino pick.

Gillick did sign Werth.

Here's something weird...

The Braves are 10-8 over their last 18 games despite being outscored by 10 runs over that stretch.

In fact, they haven't won a game by more than 2 runs since May 8th when they beat us 5-2.

Play Mayberry every day. Not sure what Dom has done to earn or deserve that spot, but Mayberry's been playing well, even if he doesn't have all the stats that someone will inevitably post. Send Dom down or just take a shot on Martinez getting taken back by the Nats. Everyone here is so in love with Dom in the bigs, but many of you aren't paying a lick of attention to Mayberry who has surpassed him.

Plus, we need Mayberry's right handed bat.

Jack -- In the words of the late great Johnny Carson: "...I did not know that". God bless Ed Wade. His part in the '08 WS win got him a shout out from the Gillick-meister himself. Damn, seems like yesterday.

"Play Mayberry every day. Not sure what Dom has done to earn or deserve that spot, but Mayberry's been playing well, even if he doesn't have all the stats that someone will inevitably post. Send Dom down or just take a shot on Martinez getting taken back by the Nats. Everyone here is so in love with Dom in the bigs, but many of you aren't paying a lick of attention to Mayberry who has surpassed him."

Posts like this amuse me. Are they real?

If only Mayberry could hit,he'd be an everyday player. Love his defense and hustle.Should be late inning replacement for Raul when Vic returns. I'll go out on a limb and say 50-50 for Mini Mouse(Mart) staying.Need to see proof rule 5 pick isn't automatic stay for the year.

I like Mayberry on the roster. As jr noted, he'd be a great late-inning defensive substitute for Raul (assuming, of course, Charlie actually considered this option). He's also a fine righty pinch-hitter.

But he's not a better baseball player than Dom Brown, even right now. And Brown projects to be far better.

I like Mayberry as you all know, but even I am not dumb enough to state Mayberry is a better player than Dom Brown.

Brown's bat has tremendous potential and, he has the physical skills to improve his defense. Time will tell how good he'll be but, right now, his bat looks plenty good enough to contribute on this team. Platooning him may help minimize the exposure of his flaws and maximize his contributions in relation to his playing time. Starting him regularly should pay more dividends in the long run.

Mayberry looks like Dave Winfield and plays the outfield well but he'll be lucky to be Mark Whiten at the plate. His stance and swings are awkward for a guy his size. He's caught between maximizing his frame by extending his arms to drive the ball and trying to shorten his swing to improve his contact. Just an awkward hitter.

Darling and Co. on the Mets broadcast always play up the notion that opposing shortstops step their game up when they face the Mets. I'm not sure that's true but, I do think Rollins tries to take his game to another level against the Mets, regardless of whether he does so out of direct competition with Reyes. Yesterday's game was stunning for its contrasts between those two.

Rollins hit alot of balls hard but, Reyes drove teh ball effortlessly and in pitcher's counts. Rollins made some nice plays in the field but, flubbed a tough play to his right hanging his pitcher out in the process. Reyes let one go right through his legs. Rollins tried too hard on the bases on some plays and not hard enough on others, running Polanco into some chin music with one move and, the team out of a rally trying to beat Pridie's arm. I don't generally criticize aggressive play but, Rollins took several risks to improve the chance of scoring one run in circumstances that I'd want him to avoid those risks in an effort to score multiple runs.

Age is always going to lose in these comparisons, at least eventually but, you'd like experience and guile to shine through in spots. With Rollins, it didn't yesterday.

I like Mayberry and believe he definitely belongs on this roster. He's a fine defensive OF at all three positions right now and he presents a dangerous bat off the bench from the right side.

The more he starts, the more his bat is exposed. I hate to pull out the stats that Terry doesn't want to see, but...

Over Jr's last 22 games (14 starts) and 63 plate appearances, he's given us this line:

175/254/246, a .500 OPS, 1 HR, 5 BB, 11 K

It's going to be really interesting when Victorino gets back. MG, et al. have hit on a formula I can endorse. I'll be most happy if Amaro finds a way to keep Brown and Mayberry and, to jettison Martinez.

I see the suggestion that Francisco has options but, on balance, I want that guy available at the major league level, whether he's splitting time or playing in a bench role.

CJ: You are cherry-picking stats. You notably left out Mayberry's "gamer index," which is extraordinarily high.

I trust Francisco's bat off the bench much more than Mayberry's. Mayberry's primary assets are defense and baserunning. Fifth outfielder, late inning guy when Victorino gets back.

Hugh: There's no question that Reyes is a better player than Rollins right now, but age has a lot to do with that. Let's compare Reyes' season right now (on pace for best of career) against Rollins' best season (each was 28 years old):

Rollins:
296/344/531, 875 OPS
38 2B, 20 3B, 30 HR, 41 SB, 139 R, 94 RBI
RF/9 4.41, Fld % .985

Reyes:
335/382/493, 876 OPS
53 2B, 25 3B, 3 HR, 59 SB, 112 R, 53 RBI (projected)
RF/9 4.12, Fld % .972

I'm a bit befuddled at the lineup today. Utley-Howard-Ibanez seems ultra vulnderable to LOOGYs. I liked when UC batted Utley second and broke them up.

By the way, although they have comparable OPSs in their age 28 seasons, their OPS+s aren't close. Rollins had a 119 OPS+ in 2007 and Reyes currently has a 145 OPS+. Why? Reyes is doing it in the year of the pitcher and in a horrible hitter's park (although I'd argue Citi Field is perfect for Reyes' game of doubles and triples).

Heather: Utley hit LHP better than RHP last season... and hit LH relievers better than LH starters. He had a 1.003 OPS vs. LHP last year. He's not really vulnerable to LOOGYs.

Ibanez is hitting LHP better than RHP so far this season and hasn't really shown a large platoon split over the last 2 seasons.

Howard... um... got a hit off a LOOGY just the other day!

The Nats only have one LOOGY in their bullpen, Sean Burnett, who's been tough on lefties so far this season.

Nice to see Dom Brown is 7 for his last 11 with 2 doubles, 1 stolen base, 1 walk and no strike outs.

If Francisco has an option left, then the decision is easy when Victorino is activated.

I'm assuming since most of the regulars got a day off yesterday, they win 10-0.

Here's a fun (and completely subjective) ESPN column on the top 50 prospects of the draft era.

Two interesting notes...

Todd Van Poppel, the bust drafted by the A's, was passed over by the Braves and 12 other teams because he threatened to go to college. Otherwise, Braves likely would have taken him #1. Who'd they take instead? Chipper Jones.

The Mets had the #1 pick in 1966 and took high school catcher Steve Chilcott. Every other team in baseball apparently had another guy at the top of their draft board: Reggie Jackson.

What sort of production do we need to see from Dom Brown before he should be moved up in the line-up, to, say, the 6-hole or the 2-hole? I'm not saying he's ready for that yet, I'm just asking for opinions about when it might be appropriate to do that?

If Brown produces to his potential, he might be good to bat 3rd or 5th. However, I don't expect that this year.

Three lefties back to back. On the pregame show UC says he knows they'll bring in lefty relievers for them but it's okay cause they'll hit them anyway. Was he the manager during the 2010 NLCS or was that someone else? Can't teach old dogs new tricks.

Speaking of the draft, when do the Phillies pick this year?

Dukes: If he said that, I can only shake my head.

OT: I can't believe I still have to listen to "T-Mac" and "Wheels". I am already sick of them today and all they said was hello.

Oliver: The Phillies don't have a 1st round pick this year. Our first pick is #39 overall.

Everyone here is so in love with Dom in the bigs, but many of you aren't paying a lick of attention to Mayberry who has surpassed him. Posted by: Terry | Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:16 AM

Huh?

"Everyone here is so in love with Dom in the bigs, but many of you aren't paying a lick of attention to Mayberry who has surpassed him."

Why all the mockery of this statement? Before the game the other day, I watched Mayberry do wind sprints, shag fly balls, show off his throwing arm, & take batting practice. He was phenomenal. It was absolutely clear from that display that he has surpassed Domonic Brown.

tmac is just choppin' at the bit to weigh into the werth gossip.

b_a_p: Don't get me wrong, I really like Mayberry as a player, but he can't hit for average.

Brown is rawer and younger, but his hitting looks to be dramatically better than Mayberry's, and I would not be surprised if his fielding turned out to be just as good.


Happy to see Polanco back in 2-hole

It's nice that Halladay's been getting out of it more often than not, but I'm finding the almost automatic "first batter reaches base" thing annoying.

Philwynk: My 1:10 post was sarcasm. It was my way of comparing Mayberry to an NFL "workout warrior" -- a guy who looks great in the gym but doesn't perform on the field. Perhaps that's a bit harsh, since Mayberry does do a lot of things right on the field. But the love-fest for a guy who is hitting .226 with a 78 OPS+ is really pretty bizarre to me.

***I'd play Dom every day as well. Time to give him the shot. He showed no platoon splits in the minors. ***

So would I. So basically we're all in agreement on Dom Brown.

***I'd play Dom every day as well. Time to give him the shot. He showed no platoon splits in the minors. ***

So would I. So basically we're all in agreement on Dom Brown.

FVCK!

b_a_p: I think the "love-fest" speaks more to how awful the OF has been than how wonderful Mayberry is.

And there's another leadoff batter reaching ...

Great. For whatever reason, Halladay has been having all sorts of problems with the leadoff batter for several games in a row.

With Livan pitching, this game is probably over.

bullit - what is the werth gossip

Halladay's pitching batting practice.

See what happens when we bash Mayberry?

I have to say I really wish Doc would learn how to bunt better.

Rule 5 Phillies Draftees

Some interesting names (and many not so interesting)
Also I think this is the first time I have actually done research to post on this site. First time for everything.

2004 Victorino
2005 None (though they did trade for Fabio Castro (First pick of Rule 5 by Rangers) and kept him on the roster all season and was eventually traded for Stairs
Also drafted in 2005 Rule 5 draft: Uggla and Pirdie who was in a game for Mets series
2006 Jim Ed Warden, Alfredo Simon, Budde (yes the Phillies spent $150K to get these guys!)
2007 Blackley, Holdzkom
2008 Mosenbach
2009 Herndon
2010 Martinez

NEPP: I'd rather he pitch better.

This site misses Sophist.

He was invaluable for statistical research/comments.

Well, at least Jimmy saw 6 pitches. :)

gossip isn't the right word. i meant the recent quotes from werth and some writers' analysis. an article linked here pretty much stated, the honeymoon is over. i'm glad he's not here for big money.

At what point do we start discussing our favorite restaurants and ballparks?

Situationally speaking, J-Roll has been downright awful these last two games.

All I can do to make myself feel better is look at Dan Uggla's 2011 line. I still can't figure out how a guy with a .246 OBP has played every game this year.

any body ever been to Ishkabibbles hole-in-the-wall eatery on south street? famous for their cheese fries.

Are the rest of you stuck at work today like I am?

Is it just me or has Chooch started throwing much better recently? I don't think he threw out anyone for the first month or so.

CJ: "Stuck" isn't really the right word, since I work at home, and for myself. But I am working & following this atrocity on Gameday.

Work? on a Federal holiday?!?

CJ: I think it's just you. The Mets ran crazy on him & seemingly established the new play book for Phillies' opponents.

CJ: Same as b_a_p for me, only I've got the "pleasure" of being able to watch this debacle on TV.

bap: You don't invest in MLB.tv? I absolutely love it. I think it's worth every dollar, especially since I can now also watch on my phone. And I plan on my next TV having the ability to stream it as well.

MLB.tv isn't working for me today...kinda pissed about it actually.

bap and GTown Dave: Could be worse... we could be losing to the Padres.


Hit

Howard batting in Washington is a beautiful thing.

OUTTA HERE!!!

Could easily be a 3-2 game right now. Howard just missed his on his first AB and Rollins should have gotten Mayberry Jr. home.

Howie

Livan threw 2 *really* good pitches to Howard to get called strikes. Pitches Howard really couldn't have done anything with anyway. Found his pitch to hit and didn't miss it.

CJ: I have MLB.tv. But if I'm trying to legitimately work, as I am today, it's just too distracting to have the tv on. I'll probably turn it on in the late innings if the game is worth watching.

It just became more worth watching than it was 2 minutes ago.

RAULLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

Rauuuuulll!!!!

holey moley!! b to b.

Could easily be a 4-2 game right now. Howard just missed his on his first AB and Rollins should have gotten Mayberry Jr. home.

Raul hit that for the friends he lost at Antietam.

CJ, its a 3-2 game now.

Signs of life!

bap: Ah, was surprised you wouldn't have. I don't work at home, or for myself, but I'm the "boss" here, so I get to sit in my office and watch while I "work."

When's the last time we hit back-to-back HRs?

Braves just tied it at 2 with San Diego.

CJ: I'm pretty frugal, but I'm not going to deny myself the essentials of life like food, water, shelter, sleep, and MLB.tv.

I miss my old job where I was the IT Manager with my own office. Somehow, MLB.tv wasn't blocked on my PC and nobody ever monitored it (as I was the guy in charge of that stuff.). Many a day was spent watching day games.

My work firewall sucks now. Though I'm home today so its all good.

First time all season the Phils have gone back-to-back (per Franzke).

Considering its $130 for the year, MLB.tv is an absolute bargain.

DOMONATED!!!!

Not Ready

Dom is now 8 for his last 13.

Could easily be a 5-2 game right now. Howard just missed his on his first AB and Rollins should have gotten Mayberry Jr. home.

Dom!!

Dom wastes too many opportunities.

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