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Saturday, May 28, 2011

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At this point, Walrond would be an upgrade to Romero.

You beat me to the punch Scott!

a 3 rating for lidge is generous. i'm between a 1 and a 2.

Lidge pitches in extended spring training game: On a scale of 1-10, my excitement is around 3.

Agreed.

Unless/until Charlie makes a definitive statement RE: Lidge's role once he returns to the team, the prospect of his coming back causes me far more anxiety than anticipation ... & that's when I even bother to think about it at all.

That Liscio's ad makes me want a cheesesteak. Bad. Sometimes I hate living out of the Philly area.

GTown.

Runs averaged over a significant period of time is the best measure of a team's offensive performance. Bar none.

In the unusual case that there might be some deviation above normal statistical variability to show that a particular team is more inconsistent than other teams that score similar amounts of runs (i.e., more games where they score very few and very many runs), it would just be a statistical fluke or explainable by something like key offensive players being injured.

I love it when negative Nancy's try to support their hand-wringing with theories that there is something about the Phillies' character (compared to other teams) that leads them to only score a lot of "wasted" runs against bad pitchers and get shut down more frequently than other teams.

Even if the Phillies offense was more variable than the few other NL offenses that scored similar amounts of runs, I'm quite sure that any deviation would fall within the normal range of statistical invariability.

The notion that there is something unique about the Phillies that leads them to score "wasted" runs is beyond laughable.

Runs scored = the quality of a teams offense.

From Crashburn Alley - Sept., 2010:

"The Phillies’ offense isn’t any more inconsistent this year than it was last year, believe it or not. The standard deviation on runs per game this year is 3.42; last year, it was 3.43."

I want to personally take responsibility for cutting Sullivan's career early. I initially started the taunting "Sull-ah-van" chant back in 05 and I could see, even in the early days that it got to him. I trace his decline to that series. The rest, as they say, is history. I also must claim responsibility for Langerhans falling off, though it is a much easier chant.

I see this Kratz guy is now hitting cleanup at AAA and had another dinger last night. He must be atrocious defensively because we're going to be watching the Great Dane flail again tomorrow.

GTown Dave wrote: "But in how many games did the Phillies score either 4 or 5 Runs in '10? 28 Games, or barely 17% of the time. Runs/Game is a bullshit stat."

What you mean is, RPG is not a good predictor of a team's performance in any individual game. That is true, and I don't think anybody who understands statistics would disagree.

However, RPG is a decent composite measure over time, and teams showing a larger RPG over time can be expected to perform better offensively than teams with significantly lower RPG. If you're trying to answer the question, "Which teams have been performing better offensively than others," RPG is a better statistic than most, since scoring runs is the purpose of hitting, slugging, getting on base, and so forth, after all.

I don't share the negative feelings about Lidge. I have more of a neutral feeling. I really like Lidge and have lasting appreciation for him based on his work in '08. But no one can deny he stunk in '09. Was injured, faltered, and lost confidence - a downward spiral if ever there was one.

However, I felt like once he got healthy again - which took a long time - he was effective again, too.

Since he seems one of those guys who tries to downplay injuries and is naturally optimistic, I have some caution about him. But I think that if he's really and truly healthy when he comes back - and has had time to get back on his game - that he will be a boon to this team.

I wouldn't necessarily bump Madson from closer. Madson's been outstanding, there's no denying it. I also wouldn't re-sign Lidge. But I'd fit him into the BP and feel the stronger for it. Depending on what he demonstrates when he returns.

It's also good to have Contreras back.

After the 19-inning game, I've lost all patience with Romero, on the other hand.

Interesting article related to the supposed advantages of consistency of small ball versus "take and rake" (getting walks and hitting HRs).

The article points out that it is only probable that teams which score more runs overall (as in 2nd in the league last year in runs scored) would show more variability in the # of runs scored per game.

Apparently GTown would be happier with a "consistent" team like the Padres?

From the article:

" Neither the small-ball nor the take-and-rake index are even close to significant, with p-values above .6. Hitting approach has no effect on the consistency of runs scored. In fact, once the number of runs scored is controlled for, it seems nothing else effects the variance in runs scored:"

Last year:

Team ranking by runs scored, team ranking by OPS

1: Cincinnati 1: Cincinnati
2: Philly 2: Colorado
3: Colorado 3: Milwaukee
4: Milwaukee 4: Philly
5: Atlanta 5: Arizona
6: St. Louis 6: Atlanta
7: Florida 7: St. Louis
8: Arizona 8: San Fran
9: San Fran 9: Florida
10:Cubs 10:Cubs

Notice a pattern there? I guess it's just coincidence that runs per game matches so closely to OPS. Because, you know, runs per game is such a meaningless stat.

Phlipper: Let me phrase this in a different manner, as you've devolved into tackling about 15 separate arguments, none of which I raised --

The Phillies are averaging 4.12 Runs/Game in '11. What, if anything, is the practical application of such knowledge?

Hamels (.250 in 24 ABs) will have the 3rd highest average in tonight's lineup....


Maybe Walrond should have been a LOOGY all along?

Message to Romero?

Iceman: To address your comments/question from the last thread . . . I use RPG as a handy shortcut statistic the way I use ERA+ as a handy shortcut statistic. Like any convenient shortcut statistic, it is neither infallible nor nuanced. However, in most (not all) cases, it provides a decent snapshot.

In this case, I used RPG to prove what I didn't think was a terribly controversial point: that the Reds' offense is the best in the National League. However, if you can demonstrate that the Reds' RPG is an inaccurate measure of their overall productivity, I am more than open to hearing you out. Of course, you've never taken much interest in trying to understand anyone's point -- let alone debate that point. You exist on Beerleaguer solely for the purpose of taking gratuitous potshots at Jack, me, MG, and 1 or 2 others.

The best thing Walrond could do for his career is to grow a huge bushy mustache and rebrand himself Les "The Walrus" Walrond. Do this and he's be recalled to the bigs by next Tuesday, book it.

"The Phillies are averaging 4.12 Runs/Game in '11. What, if anything, is the practical application of such knowledge?"

There is nothing. Runs/Game only matters relative to runs allowed/game.

@jbird: He also needs to learn how to pace around the mound, pick up and toss the rosin bag, look pleadingly at the sky (or the stars at night), pound his glove and stride purposefully to to the mound for each pitch. Accomplish that feat, and he's your LOOGY for life.

I like your thought process.

Old Phan: The Phillies have Scored an average of 4.12 Runs/Game while Allowing an average of 3.27 Runs/Game. So should the Phillies be 51-0? Or does Runs/Game Scored relative to Runs/Game Allowed really not tell us anything we couldn't figure out by simply looking at the team's W/L Record?

b_a_p: St. Louis leads the NL in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS & OPS+. Why wouldn't they be considered the "best Offense in the league"?

These MLB local blackout rules are starting to get on my nerves.

Game blacked out for some odd reason. Is it on national tv or is it just a big FU from MLB?

Its after 7:05 pm on a saturday so it should be available on MLB.tv.

Replace Victorino with Mayberry in this order (obviously with Vic in a different spot in the order) and this is the lineup that should see the majority of starts this year.

I love that our 2nd baseman takes pitches these days...

Polly shot his wad in April.


Godam put Polanco back in the 2-hole

Batting Polly behind a non-base stealer is a mistake, if you ask me. He's ground into considerably less double plays if he were battinb behind Jimmy.

G-Town: St. Louis is right up there although, if you also take last year into consideration, I'd give the edge to the Reds.

Anyway, at the time of my original statement, the Reds led the league in runs per game. Iceman doesn't have much going on in his life, so he's still taking me to task for a statement I made about 5 days ago -- even though I've still never even heard him say that he disagreed with the statement.


Nepp- game is on FAUX

NEPP, I was wondering the same thing. I can't find it anywhere on Extra Innings. I started to wonder if it was in a rain delay or something

Oh...on Fox? Good to know.

Is there another Fox game on tonight? If so, that's the reason for the blackout. They want you to watch the other game.


FAUX is doing a Saturday Night "six pack" of regional games

The only thing that's p*ssing me off more than MLB's blackout rule right now is Jose Reyes.

Well damn.


son of a smelly whore...

I didn't realize it was on Fox.
Fie!

Cincy and now NY running wild our pitchers.

Well, if Hamels had gotten just 2 runs in each of 2 games last year, his record would be 4-7, which wouldn't be so "stunning", now would it?

Reyes was out. He overslid the base. Polanco was tagging him when he was out of contact with the bag.

Polanco GIDP 6 times in March/April, but batted .398, Walked 10 times & Struck Out 5 times. In May, Polanco has only GIDP twice, but he's batting .232 while Walking 5 times & Striking Out 11 times. For a selective, contact-type guy, this has been a terrible month.

I thought so as well, phatti, but I doubt that will ever get called.

I suppose Polly's not allowed to go into a slump. I'll be sure to let him know that the general rules of baseball don't apply to him.

Ruiz just can't throw runners out. One of his shortcomings.

Better hope Cole settles down for the next few innings. Threw 23 in that inning.

Didn't Ruiz throw out a few guys this week?

I don't know what Howard's pissed off about, he should have killed that pitch.

Ruiz isn't the problem. Most of our pitchers can't be bothered to hold runners.

Ruiz has thrown out fewer than 30% of opposing base runners in all but one season of his career. I'm not sure what the average is for major league catchers, but I generally think of around 35% or better as being pretty good.

curt: Agreed. Even Halladay hasn't been paying attention to base runners in his past couple of starts.

For all of his flaws Blanton does a nice job holding runners.

That one, however, was all on Chooch.

This feels like a loss.

The Mets are just running crazy on us. Every single is turning into a double. This doesn't forecast to be a good game for us.

Good job by Hamels to take care of that runner.

Real hanger there.

So, basically, if they make contact with the bat, it's a hit. The only way Cole is getting outs is with strike-outs.

Cole's not super sharp tonight. Hopefully he figures it out as the game goes on.

Gonna need the BP tonight.

not ready

Where the hell did that hit the bat?

Figures with Scott Barry behind the plate, we'd get some questionable calls tonight.

Send Dom?

Big Pelf is getting some questionable calls. Of course, when you're the staff ace of the famed NY Mets, you're going to get those calls.

It baffles me how a lefty like Hamels has never developed even a semi-decent pick-off move. Best Phils' lefty I can remember was the one Mulholland had. It was incredibly deceptive and quick.

Joe Buck is generally intolerable, but his voice just sounds like garbage lately, as if he just woke up from a long night of drinking.

Geezer kept them baffled on 1B too.

MG: Mulholland had one of the best pick-off moves I have ever seen from any pitcher. Truly outstanding.

Mulholland did have an excellent pickoff move, although Steve Carlton certainly belongs in any discussion about best pickoff moves in Phillies history.

Reyes would look fine in red next year.

Moyer had a really good pickoff move. And very few lefties of the last 15 years coudl match Pettite's move.

Another single by Reyes. I already know how the rest of the story goes.

How the hell has McCarver never heard of a 'AAAA' player? That's been around for at least 15 years. Probably longer.

Petitte has the best pickoff move of anybody I can remember the last 15 years.

I think the Phils are going to need about 7 runs to win tonight.

This is absolutely zero energy in this game or this broadcast.

Hopefully the unimpressive tenure of Jason Bay as a Met continues for this AB.

SLO: That's how Pelfrey has a career record of 6-5 vs. the Phillies despite a corresponding 5.25 ERA.

This is plain ridiculous.

Hamels ought to be embarrassed by that SB.

Dave - Pelfrey has been 'Jekyll and Hyde' vs. the Phils. He's been very good vs. them at Shea/Citi and horrendous at CBP.

Being run on this much should be embarassing for the Phillies.

Since I'm stuck on Gameday . . . are the Mets stealing these bases on Hamels or is Ruiz just making poor throws? Or is it a little of both?

This is nothing new though. Mets have run against the Phils early and often vs Phils especially at Citi Field.

Frankly I don't understand why more teams don't run against the Phils almost every chance they get. Ruiz is average at best at throwing out runners. Schneider is below average.

That's the upside of the game being blacked out. I don't have to hear Joe Buck.

BAP - Its both. Hamels is making almost no attempt to keep the runners at 1B anywhere near the bag. They are getting crazy leads. Gives Ruiz little chance unless it is a fastball.

Geez it's embarrassing to be losing to this freakin' team.

Jose Reyes can learn a thing or two about how to run the bases from Utley there. Great job to be at 2nd.

Jose Reyes = Joe Disaster in Espanol

These are the situations where the Phils have to get runs. YOu get a leadoff double, get him in, even if it involves two productive outs.

MG: Thanks. Hamels might want to work on that part of his game. No lefty should be run on like this.

Good to know the guy dressed in that foolish dog custom hasn't escaped from Bellevue or even worse a 'furry.'

What the hell were they trying to talk about with "sees him as a dog, but he sees him as a man dressed as a dog"? I am not drunk or high and cannot follow this.

MG: Is that the guy what just bought a $200 Million stake in the team?

That's NOT what you want to do.

Ugh.

"Professional hitter."

So much for the 2 productive outs.

Pelfrey isn't not a freaking frontline starter. Every time he is on Fox, McCarver blathers about how Pelfrey has frontline starter stuff. No, no he doesn't. He isn't anything more than a mediocre starter who would get hit hard in the AL or if he didn't pitch in a pitcher's park like Citi.

All you need to know is his career road ERA is 5.62 in 55 GS.

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EST. 2005

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